Episode 11: Recession, Veterans & the First-Time Buyer Problem

This week on No Surrender...

We're connecting the dots between affordability, policy, the economy, and the people trying to navigate it all. Some of these topics have been building for months. Others are changing by the day.

We're going to breakdown:

🔥 The debate over the age of first time home buyers.
🔥 Veterans caught between VASP and VA Partial Claims.
🔥 Is a recession coming and how do we feel about it
🔥 Peeling back the layers of building your personal brand.
🔥 What does a blue wave in November mean for housing?

LIVE Thursday at 1PM EST. Hope you can join us.

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:37

Hey, hey. Good Thursday afternoon.

SPEAKER_01 0:40

Nice explosion.

SPEAKER_02 0:42

Well, thank you very much. I'm known for that.

SPEAKER_01 0:44

Yes, I hear that.

SPEAKER_02 0:45

Good morning. It's a lot like the uh it's a lot like the 10-year bond. What the hell is going on? Craziness. Craziness.

SPEAKER_06 0:53

Yes.

SPEAKER_02 0:54

Are we still over 4-7?

SPEAKER_04 0:56

4-7, right?

SPEAKER_02 0:57

No, we're just under 4-7. We're dropping bombs, man. We're dropping it like it's hot. 4697. This is changing. This is bouncing around from 4-7 and down. But I think this is the highest it's been since we started. No surrender.

SPEAKER_01 1:11

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:13

Is it heading to five? I don't know. Rates are definitely heading to seven, though.

unknown 1:18

Yes.

SPEAKER_02 1:19

I know. Yeah. Well, this is uh we're we're talking at a moment right now where it just seems like the train has completely come off the tracks. Um and uh Kobe, I'm guess we'll just jump uh we'll jump right in here. And uh what is this that we're looking at? We're gonna we're gonna skip the pleasantries. Although, you know what? Hang on, let me stop.

SPEAKER_06 1:38

We're just gonna raw dog.

SPEAKER_02 1:40

I'm not gonna roll dog. I'm not gonna rall dog because what'll happen is I will not hear the end of it from Kobe. You know, I think we need to be a little funnier, I think we need to be a little looser, let's have some thoughts on first. Um Kobe, you're gonna be. Like you wonder, hey, would my friend find this funny? Just say yes.

SPEAKER_01 2:11

Yes, absolutely, all the time. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_02 2:13

So so there's this one thing that pops up on Instagram from time to time that makes me laugh my ass off. I don't know what it is, but I want to see, and don't fake laugh. I want to see if you agree that this is really funny shit. All right? We'll start, we'll we'll keep it light. Here we go. Now to the story of a pig. Hang on.

SPEAKER_00 2:34

Every time.

SPEAKER_05 2:35

That's not true. Stop it. Now to the story of a pig that is inspiring others. One pot one potbellied pig has certainly entered his share of problems. Chris P. Bacon was born without the use of his pick. Oh no. You have to read this story.

SPEAKER_04 3:01

Oh, a pig on wheels. Oh. We did not. Oh my god. Wait, was the kid on wheels too?

SPEAKER_01 3:17

Yes. Yes, there was also a kid on wheels.

SPEAKER_02 3:20

That actually happened that actually happened. This guy was a news anchor. This is years ago. He was doing this story about this pig named Crispy Pig.

SPEAKER_00 3:28

Crispy Bacon. Crispy Bacon.

SPEAKER_02 3:30

Crispy Bacon that that didn't have legs. Is that light enough for you? If it's not, here's something else. This might not be quite as funny. When your parents argue who wins?

SPEAKER_08 3:42

Mommy. She always wins.

SPEAKER_02 3:44

What if Daddy is actually right?

SPEAKER_08 3:46

Daddy never right.

SPEAKER_02 3:47

Why is that?

SPEAKER_08 3:48

She brings up every mistake he ever made.

SPEAKER_02 3:53

Boy, do I know that all too well. All right, Kobe. Have I checked the box? Can we get into the war? This is uh you've you've checked the box.

SPEAKER_04 3:59

We can we can now we can now slide into the war. Yes. We are lubed up. What a segue that was. I'm all lubed up. So uh yeah, we got a couple of things going on. So obviously, uh every week, as usual, the war is back on. Um, in case you uh in case you miss the near cis ceasefire of the week, uh the war is back on. We are reigning holy terror. Uh Trump threatened the other day for every missile shot by Iran. We're gonna blow up either a bridge or power plant, undetermined whether that was ladies' choice or if we were gonna make that decision. But uh same threat he made, by the way, back in April. And uh so the cycle continues. There doesn't seem to be any real strategy to extricate ourselves from this, other than to continue to attempt to cripple Iran economically by destroying their infrastructure and uh hurting their ability to export oil. Although Iran shows no signs of buckling, they've at this point have nothing to lose. Uh political will seems to be crumbling. And uh this morning the House passed a bill 214 to 208 with four Republicans crossing the aisle and um voting to end uh block military action against Iran. Of course, this doesn't really have any teeth to it. Um, and uh even if the Senate wound up passing this bill, it still really wouldn't have very clear teeth to it. But it is it is a clear message ahead of the midterms, which are coming up really quickly, that there is some dissension among the ranks, that the war has gone on too long, that uh it it's gonna be okay for Republicans to go back into their district and to say we don't support what the president is doing or we're looking for some kind of exit from this. Um, obviously, oil has reached uh a high that it hasn't seen since the beginning of June, up to $92 a barrel. And uh and the 10-year uh treasury, as you showed, uh broke through 4.7. So a lot of a lot of negativity now around this war. And and uh I know Aaron surfaced uh another another element of this uh war that that is concerning to us, which is the the involvement and the entanglement that we have with Israel and their desire to continue the war with Iran. And then the NDAA, which was passed by the House yesterday, that contained a provision which uh ties us to uh Israel's military technology and supply chain, something that we're already kind of embedded with Israel in in terms of uh the technology that we produce and that and that some of some of which is made there in Israel and and sent back to the United States. But this kind of puts that into law, which has the concern of many people in Congress. Um, as I pointed out this morning when we were chatting, uh it doesn't seem to have the 60 votes necessary in the Senate. So it's unlikely to pass with that provision. But the fact that it's in there shows where a lot of uh Congress's heads are at as far as how closely tied we are to Israel and all of this. And I know that's been concerning to us on the show. Um so again, another week. Um hopefully by the time the midterms get closer, with Trump's approval rating now below 40%, we do find a way out of it, but concerning for all of us. And uh it's very realistic that we'll see a seven handle with interest rates within the next couple of weeks.

SPEAKER_01 7:02

Yeah. And and that that vote uh that you mentioned regarding his war powers comes on the heels of yet another survey showing that this war is deeply unpopular with the American people. And and it's always been unpopular outside of self-described MAGA, but there is a poll that just came out this week that said even with MAGA now it is becoming increasingly unpopular, which is ironic because yesterday Trump came out and said the war isn't unpopular with people. They don't want their gas prices to go up, but that they're they're they're fans of the war, um, that they that they're supportive of the war. And we're seeing that that is that he just is increasingly detached from the reality of the American, American consumer, the American homeowner, um, those of us who are just trying to get by and would like to see our country and government focus our resources and efforts here at home instead of just continuing to ramp up the escalation, which is just getting worse and worse every day. And you mentioned, you know, that that the focus is to destroy Iran's economy, but we're we're doing that to ourselves.

SPEAKER_02 7:59

Yeah. And what does this mean for the mortgage business, right? You get to 7%. Obviously, refines very much off the table. Uh, we it felt like we were in a market, a spring market that was maybe gonna be extended a little bit. None of these things help that. And so for the industry, it's more of a hurry up and wait for something good to happen. And and you know, we we could jump all around here because we are gonna get into uh you know on the political side, the last topic we're gonna cover is what's gonna happen when the House is democratic controlled, when there is, you know, a split Congress. What's that gonna mean for the mortgage industry? Uh, we have our friend Tim Rude uh is going to pop in here from the Daily Dose. We love his publication. We read it every day, and um, he's gonna give us the breakdown there. But there's also um there's also recession signals out there, and they're very conflicting. I mean, it's not very often you see um recessionary signals coupled with the hundred uh hundred dollar uh price of Brent, which is where Brent sits right now. Um, Kobe, for the for the mortgage person, for the originator, for the person talking to the first-time buyer. I mean, how complicated is this picture suddenly?

SPEAKER_04 9:16

Well, super complicated. You know, you've got to weigh the fact that we're in a position in this industry where we're we're lacking the volume that we thought we were gonna have coming into this year. Um, customers are, you know, we still have 52% of customers that have mortgage rates below 4%. So that's still a significant number. So there's there's still a supply issue going on as a result of some of that. Um, and for buyers that are in the market right now, and they're thinking about, you know, should I buy? And a week or two after starting to pose that question, rates go from 6.3 to 6.6 and now heading towards seven. Um, you know, this is a difficult time as an originator to have those conversations with borrowers because what do you tell them? Do you tell them that, you know, we're we're we're hoping that the Fed cuts rates, but you've got to look at oil and see that that's gonna just bolster the hawks that are in the FOMC. Um, so you know, I I it's it's a hard conversation to have with buyers, especially with with prices still elevated across many parts of the country. Um it's difficult. And and I think none of us really know the answer because, like you said, there are signs of recession that which would which would amount to an easing of rates on the one hand, but there's also signs that the Fed might actually raise rates this year. So very conflicting messages that continue to come out. Um, I think we need clarity on this, the American people, not just the housing market. We need some clarity around what's going on. Um, and we're just we're just not getting it. And we're getting just tone-deaf message after tone-deaf message, and a lot of uh a lot of just confusion over what's happening, especially when we hear that we're gonna bomb the hell out of them, but then our Secretary of State is telling us that Iran is begging us to make a deal. And, you know, we've heard that before. And we keep hearing the same things recycled over and over and over again.

SPEAKER_02 11:00

Now the Houthis are getting involved, you've got all these rogue uh folks, you know, starting to bomb on them. I mean, there's a lot of factions out there.

SPEAKER_04 11:06

Kazakhstan stopped exporting oil because they were bombed. So, I mean, that's adding to the price of oil. So, I mean, you can't just keep saying the same thing over and over again, expecting people to believe it and take it as truth. There has to be some resolution to this. And I think that's what prompted that House vote and the and those Republicans crossing over saying enough is enough already with this.

SPEAKER_06 11:25

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 11:26

Aaron, 11 days, 11 days of bombing, you know, coming on the heels of us feeling like, hey, there's a ceasefire uh that's gonna happen. And now, now it's just you know, it's a stressful time to be in the mortgage business, especially if you're floating, especially if you've been talking to customers for months about and you finally had them, you know, right right at the edge there, ready to make that commitment. And suddenly that payment that was $2,200 is now $2,600, and their DTI knocks them out. It's really stressful. I'm not gonna lie.

SPEAKER_01 11:55

I just had my my monthly corporate processing meeting right before we went live here. And two of the things that stood out amongst that team, um, so they they process loans from all over the country, and one of them had seven loans this month fall out. Seven, once it's already been in the processing stage, right? I mean, so so that's that's not good. The other ones were like, why are the loan officers taking so long to lock to lock the loans? They're not locking them until you know a few days before closing. And I'm like, well, because this is what the market's doing, and we're trying to see if any day we'll get some kind of relief and and rates will come back down again. And so, you know, it's it's just stressful for for everyone involved, and especially if you're trying, if you're right there at the cusp.

SPEAKER_02 12:33

Well, and for loan officers, you know, you spend much more time now, you're much more sensitive to interest rates when you quoted six and three eighths or six and a half, and now all of a sudden your company's going to seven. Is it the company? Is it secondary playing games? Is it really the war? Uh, you know, let me call this lender and you know, they'll use their special pricing login. Tell me what that 30-year fix looks like there. Suddenly they're at 599 somehow. So there's a lot, there's a lot that happens. There's a lot of dominoes that fall in a moment like this. We can't get uh to um you know uh higher ground fast enough when it comes to this. It's just a very nasty situation, but it remains fluid. And for Kevin Walsh and the and the FOMC, uh any hope um that you know maybe he could stave the the hawks off, I think that's not looking great right now. And of course, any of this can change in a moment's notice. That's the crazy thing, right? Kobe, is that at any moment something could happen and eventually will happen, where we can then finally breathe a sigh of relief, but it doesn't seem any closer today.

SPEAKER_04 13:36

I think we are a little bit closer, you know, with the House vote this morning and the three servicemen who tragically lost their lives over the weekend, uh, which is lending itself towards breaking that will to keep this going. Um, you know, I it it seems like we're getting to a point where, and and because the midterms are so close, it seems like we're getting to a point where somebody's gonna have to do something. The question is, how does Trump extricate us from this while still making it look like a win? And that's the key. And I guarantee you that's the question he's asking every morning is how do I get out of this without looking like I capitulated?

SPEAKER_02 14:05

Because I don't want to be in this He's probably been asking that question for months now, three years.

SPEAKER_04 14:08

Yes, from probably day three. And and I think that as soon as that answer, and he's and he's tried to engage the Iranians with that, that's why he keeps inviting them to talk, inviting them to talk, and um, you know, but he keeps meeting that resistance when it comes to the industry uranium. So, you know, I I I don't know what the answer is, but I know I know one is coming soon.

SPEAKER_01 14:26

Well, we've attacked the Iranians mid mid-negotiations multiple times during the course of this, the first time last year, the second time when it started up again this year. And so you can see where there might be resistance to to meeting with us uh on the negotiations. And the problem is is that you know, Trump just keeps escalating his rhetoric, and and whether that's a he's trying to do that to say we'll go full bore and try to get the Iranians to step down, but they're just not. And so it just has to keep escalating. So somebody needs to come in there and be willing to step back and be the loser. And I just don't see who that's gonna be on either side right now.

SPEAKER_02 14:59

Yeah, and Kobe, you mentioned that uh the you had four Republicans cross over on that vote, and uh it's not looking great as far as the midterms are concerned. We might as well just go right to that right now. Um, it's it's all but a sure bet that uh we're gonna have at the very least, you know, it's gonna be split uh between the House and the Senate. And what that what's that gonna look like for housing? You know, historically, what has that looked like for housing? So we asked our inside the beltway guy, Tim Rude, to give us a minute here or two on uh what a divided um Congress uh could and will look like for the mortgage.

SPEAKER_03 15:35

Hello, no surrender, no surrender people. Good to see you. Tim Rude here. I was asked to give a quick update on the midterm. So here goes. The most likely outcome is wait for it, Democrats winning the House and Republicans winning the Senate. That's at about 86% right now with odds makers. Professional pollsters kind of closer to 60%. It's worth noting that re the Democrats peaked about six months ago from a polling perspective and have been drifting down pretty dramatically the last six weeks. That's given rise oxygen to this concept that the Republicans could pull off for the first time in 80 odd years a sweep and maintain control, a supermajority, uh, maintaining control of the House and the Senate. Tom will tell. Now, if Republicans either way are gonna get one last bite of the apple, they're gonna get a tax bill, a spending bill. Probably try to push the debt ceiling into that bill before a new majority is seated in the event that they do lose the midterms. Now, the president also wants about $350 billion for the Pentagon. Okay, well, if you can't pass that on party lines, that means you got to go to the Democrats. And you're gonna need at least 10 of them, 10 senators to vote for this. That ain't gonna be free. So that's probably gonna cost another $350 billion to cover domestic spending, one to one. Deficit spending usually comes with higher interest rates. So you can expect that if you pass another $700 billion in spending, then boy howdy, it's not gonna be great for interest rates. Uh divided government, of course, gets you more hearings. It's gonna get you more subpoenas, gridlock, all of those things that are generally good for borrowing, but everybody uh else can't stand it. So anyway, hope that's helpful, guys. Have a great day. Take care.

SPEAKER_02 17:15

Of course that's helpful. We appreciate that. We just saw the road the road to housing. Yeah, well, you know, not everyone can have the great backgrounds that you have, Kobe. Although today, today, all today all I see is a sh all I see is a shadow. Um you're in your new digs. I'm in my new digs, is my new office.

SPEAKER_04 17:34

It's going to be decorated eventually.

SPEAKER_02 17:37

Um somebody to help you, aren't you?

SPEAKER_04 17:41

I am. I am. Elizabeth told me to to we she call a ceasefire. I'm not allowed to hang anything without her ex explicit permission.

SPEAKER_02 17:49

And this is your this is your girlfriend. Elizabeth is your girlfriend. I've met her. She's she's she's lovely.

SPEAKER_01 17:55

We love her.

SPEAKER_02 17:55

Yeah. At what how long have you been dating? Uh we're coming up on four years. Oh wow. Okay. Yeah, dude. You need like uh some advice. Aaron, you're one to talk. You're one to talk, by the way. Yeah, come on.

SPEAKER_01 18:08

I'm just dreaming. A girl can hope for another girl.

SPEAKER_02 18:12

Yeah, so so I mean, ro Road to Housing should give us hope, right? I mean, that was bipartisan. And historically, you know, just doing a little research for this this topic, um, even under split control, um, housing wins do get through. Low to income housing tax credit of 1986, the 2008 GSE overhaul, both past divided governments. Not to mention affordability is like right at the top of the list for both parties. So it seems like for housing, it could be as good as it is now or better. That's from my seat, Aaron. What about from yours? You just got you just got cross-eyed. I mean, is that because you're about to you're about to disagree with me? Can you do cross-eyed by the way? She just did. Snailed it. Oh wow, that's fabulous. Well done. I can't do that.

SPEAKER_01 19:01

Thank you. I'm a thespian. Um, so I disagree, honestly, because I think that I do agree with Tim. I think that the Senate will probably stay Republican and the the House will most likely go Democrat. They only have to flip like three seats. And and I I think, especially after what's going on with the war in Iran, if Trump, if it continues on as it is, the Republican, it's going to be an absolute blood bloodbath, I think. And I think that what you're going to see to Tim's point is absolute, absolute gridlock, because now the Democrats are going to be looking to 2028. And so they're not going to give anything, the Republicans, even likely a win. I think we got road through. I think that was the big, the big win. From a housing perspective, I don't know what what you're going to get through a divided house because neither is what going to want to give anything to the other. Um, you're going to have uh French Hill will no longer have the gavel of house of House Financial Services. It's going to be Maxine Waters, who is absolutely not going to do anything at all to help the Republicans. Um, and I also think that you have Hakeem Jeffries, who is going to be the new speaker of the House, who is going to be under incredible, uh, incredible pressure to go after the Trumps and for impeachment. There's all these stories about how the Trump family has enriched themselves personally in in his second term. You can, I mean, it they're everywhere. And so I think that he is going to be under incredible pressure to go after Trump from an impeachment standpoint because that's going to take any news off of anything bad that Democrats are doing, put focus on Trump going into 2028. Democrats are not going to give Republicans anything. So I don't see this as being a positive for housing or anyone. Or maybe if you don't like new government spending or new government bills, maybe it is a win.

SPEAKER_04 20:44

You don't think a a Democrat House Republican Senate is good for housing? Is that what you're saying?

SPEAKER_01 20:49

Yes.

SPEAKER_04 20:50

Okay.

unknown 20:50

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 20:51

Well, I mean, you can take if the House if is Democrat, you can take GSE coming out of conservatorship off the table. They don't want to.

SPEAKER_01 20:57

Well, with McKiernan leaving treasury this week, that's off it's off the table anyway, right? I mean, McKiernan gone kills it. But yeah, I agree completely.

SPEAKER_04 21:03

Yeah. But the reality is that when it comes to our industry specifically, and I know Tim brought up a lot of different scenarios about you know spending bills and deficits and all that. But the reality is when it comes to the levers that affect housing directly, those are all controlled at the executive level. You know, you're talking about the CFPB and HUD and FHFA, those are those are run by people that are picked by the president. Um, and the decisions, the policy decisions are are all in the in the executive and cabinet branch. They're not they're not in the House and the Senate. Um and if you look at what the House and the House at Congress puts forth as a bipartisan bill like the Road to Housing Act, doesn't have a lot of teeth because the reality is that most housing affordability issues are at the state and local level. So they can talk about it, and it is a big messaging point. The economy is always a big message point. And and when you're talking about the price of groceries and the price of rent and the price of homes, those are all things that you have to talk about as a federal politician. But um, what Levers can they actually press that that has immediate relief? So, do I see a Democrat House and a Republican Senate? That's kind of what it's looking like. The Democrats are still polling higher than they did in 2024 by about 10 points on average. And we've seen that hold true during some of the primaries and special elections that we've had so far this year. Um, the president's not helping himself as we've discussed with his approval rating. It's below 40%, which is abysmal. Um, so we are kind of looking at that, but I don't see the outcome of a blue wave in Congress or in the House at least pushing anything further along for housing for us. I don't see any immediate relief. I think I think the FOMC, what the Fed does, has a much stronger impact. And that's going to come out of some of the actions of the at the executive level. Well, go out, Aaron.

SPEAKER_01 22:45

Even in the Senate, even if the Senate stays Republican, what happens in Maine? Um, you know, Susan Collins is is chair of appropriations right now, and appropriations affects us. And so even if the Republicans manage to to keep it with her gone, the you know that that could have significant implications with us for HUD, um, depending on where that election goes. If she loses, then you know, it's not good for us. It could be not good.

SPEAKER_02 23:11

Housing's such a big topic now, and so is the economy, right? Affordability is is the number one issue for both parties. And I think we saw that. Again, I'm gonna I'm gonna be optimistic. And you saw that it was largely bipartisan on the on the road to housing. And I think there's gonna be more of that. Before you know it, we're gonna look up, there's gonna be a Democratic uh run run uh uh house, and we're gonna be 18 months out from the election, from the presidential election, and that's gonna be right back into focus again. So maybe there'll be a little bit of a lull, but then I think housing, uh, if it continues down the road that it's going down right now, will be even more of a prominent subject point for both parties. So I'm optimistic. I mean, could it get any worse? What have we seen? Uh why are you laughing?

SPEAKER_01 23:55

I don't know. I like optimist guys.

SPEAKER_02 23:57

Do you rarely see me optimistic or something? You look like you're completely shocked. I mean, I think Do you know me to be a pessimist? Am I a pessimist?

SPEAKER_01 24:05

Um, I think is that my rep? I I think you kind of like to go to the negative side of things at times. So it's nice to see you being positive and optimistic.

SPEAKER_02 24:13

You mean like saying, you mean like saying I I'm hoping for a recession? Yeah. Is that the kind of thing you're talking about?

SPEAKER_01 24:19

Segway perfectly.

SPEAKER_04 24:20

The economy crash button. By the way, one thing we will see if there is a Democrat House is the same thing we saw during the last Trump administration, which is they're likely to try and impeach him at least one more time. Like that's that's definitely gonna be a parting shot they're gonna take before his term ends.

SPEAKER_01 24:34

Well, that's what I was saying, exactly. With all of the all of the the enrichment that they've done with their kids, absolutely, that is for sure gonna happen.

SPEAKER_02 24:40

Yeah, and what's that that's just gonna be another three-ring circus, it's no different than what we are. Which is what they want.

SPEAKER_04 24:44

They just they just want to embarrass the president. Yeah, it doesn't do anything, and they're probably hurt they're hurt their own chances in the general election in 2028 as a result.

SPEAKER_02 24:53

So it's a it's a total shit show out there.

SPEAKER_01 24:56

They're a bunch of clowns.

SPEAKER_02 24:57

Yo, it's dangerous. Let's crash the economy. Thank you, BB. We really appreciate it. Thanks for the lie. Um, all right, so yeah, exactly. Can you believe a Jew is talking about BB like that? Unbelievable. Do you think do you do you what percentage responsibility do you give Netanyahu for the situation that we're in, Kobe, right now, as a fellow Heb?

SPEAKER_04 25:22

I don't I don't hold him responsible because he is a foreign leader with his own interests, and it's in Israel's interest to see Iran neutralized. It has been for a long time. So Bibi's doing what any prime minister of Israel should do in his position, which is to advocate for the safety of his own country. It is Trump's responsibility to take in all of the information coming from all different parts of the world and and people that he trusts and make decisions about what we do with our foreign policy. So, how can I blame Bibi for doing what he deems to be in the best interest of his company of his country?

SPEAKER_02 25:55

What about the narrative that uh Iran was weeks away from being able to deploy a nuclear weapon? What about that?

SPEAKER_04 26:06

That's been the narrative that's been going on since the 90s, and Lindsey Graham was a part of that narrative back in 1994 when he first joined the House. So there's there's been a lot of warhawks that have complained about Iran for a long time, with some justification.

SPEAKER_02 26:17

Iran has been your best guess was was Trump misled? Was he sold a bill of goods? Whether he's responsible or not. At the end of the day, okay, he was.

unknown 26:26

Okay.

SPEAKER_04 26:26

Yes, because listen, we we had Israel had a war with Iran already, and Israel won that war with Iran. And Trump came out and said we obliterated their nuclear capabilities. We had a war that we could have walked away from, both Israel and the United States, and said, hey, we won that and we said Iran back. Trump took it a little too far by saying obliterated. And I think that's kind of one of the reasons why we're back here, still to clean that up. But there was already a war with Iran that was won. And so this this this second phase of it, if you want to call it that, has been a complete disaster. And the reality is both countries should have just walked away with that victory in their pocket and said, Hey, we we we gave you some hell for a few weeks, and if you continue the antics, we're gonna come right back instead of what we're doing right now, which is a complete quagmire.

SPEAKER_02 27:10

Yeah, I think that if there's not that attack or that on that kibbutz and the you know, those thousand plus Jews were not killed. This this we're not even talking about this right now. I mean, that just lit the fuse, man, and it seems to be a really long one. You're talking about October 7th. Yeah, any more comments on this?

SPEAKER_01 27:27

I think we we we talked it out.

SPEAKER_02 27:29

We've have we exhausted it.

SPEAKER_01 27:30

Um I mean, I can talk for three hours on this, but I don't know that you guys want me to.

SPEAKER_02 27:34

I have I have a regret here, and I shouldn't have been smiling, asking for you know, calling for an economy crash. What the hell was I thinking? It was the best that was the best picture I could find of me, and the bar is very low. Anyway, I mean, so I did this post this week. It got a lot of impressions and a lot of engagement.

SPEAKER_04 27:51

Um is that the White House on fire in the background?

SPEAKER_02 27:55

Or the or the Capitol building? I I don't know what's going on. That is the Capitol and then the monument sector. I didn't even yeah. Um I'll have to tell my artist not to do that again.

SPEAKER_01 28:04

Hey chat, simmer down.

SPEAKER_02 28:06

You know, my my point, the point that I made is that uh the poly market chances went up ever so slightly from 8% to 12, which is a 50% increase in in those numbers. And you've got all these numbers, I'm not gonna read them all. Um, but we know that there are a lot of uh signals on one hand that are pointing to uh a recessionary tail. And my point is that history reflects that uh every single uh climate we've been in since the beginning of time where rates have gone down have been on the backs of some kind of an event in uh in the economy, something that's not great. If we're already heading there, my point is let's just get all the way there. And um, because right now we're kind of in no man's land, is the feeling. And so I got some uh some brushback here um from some people that we know and and maybe some people we know a little less. Diego Sanchez, president of Housing Wire, you're rooting for hundreds of thousands or even millions of people to lose their jobs. Well, not really, that's not what I'm rooting for. I'm rooting for the band-aid to get ripped off so we can rebound and people can be in a better place because there are a lot of people that are hurting out there. Um Jen McGuinness, a recession may lower the risk-free rate, but I can simultaneously it can simultaneously destroy borrow qualifications, tighten credit, widen mortgage spreads. Rooting for lower rates is not the same as rooting for a recession. I'm actually uh rooting for a recession, which will lead to lower rates. And then Jason Smith, recessions are cyclical. This is really interesting, uh, what he what he had to say. What housing needs is a balance and calmness for a period of time longer than anyone in the industry wants to wait. I mean, that is true, uh, me included, aside from the outlier that was the early 2000s, the percentage of homeowners has stayed relatively the same for 50 plus years. Um, so he calls more for balance and maybe a slower process to uh some kind of correction. Other people have pointed out that if uh that if uh job growth stays at three or four percent and uh house values just continue to stay around flat, that we'll catch up in seven years. Who's got seven years, man? Aaron, you have seven years to watch this unfold?

SPEAKER_01 30:12

I don't have seven years to watch it unfold.

SPEAKER_02 30:14

She's got seven years. She's young.

SPEAKER_01 30:16

Listen, not but not unfold. Shoot. No babies. Remember, we had this discussion already.

SPEAKER_02 30:22

What what are your thoughts? What are your thoughts on this topic?

SPEAKER_01 30:25

Yeah, so you know, here's the thing. We all it's no secret that our industry is countercyclical. We benefit when there is a recession. Um, the issue that I'm seeing is the way the economy has been running is is what we think of or see as a traditional recession. I don't know that it happens the way the economy is right now, right? If you think about it, we continue to pump more and more money into the economy. We're almost $40 trillion in debt, right? Putting that liquidity in there is holding off the natural correction, the natural cycle. And at the end of the day, Jason Smith was right that they are cycles. It's a natural thing. Um, I've been spending a lot of time looking at the data because to me, I feel like there's just something in the in the jobs data that that is more than what the headlines are. And it was really interesting doing my research on this this week because you just saw it today, right, with the jobs data. We now have a crazy low number of new claims. Continuing claims went down very, very small by a very small amount. But we just had a a study come out showing that we now have like 26% of the unemployed are considered long-term unemployed. And the last time that we were there was right before the Great Recession. Not that I think we're going there. Um, but if you look at the the economy or the employment picture, if you are somebody who is in a skilled job, you're experienced, you're doing just fine. If you can trade up and you get the average job uh wage increase for job movers is like 6.6%. There are some industries out there saying that they can't find enough skilled people to fill their job positions, right? We see the data, we see the numbers that there are areas that are hiring and we're not seeing this just massive shift and massive layoffs, which is what you see tend to see. Um, this is something though that I think this graph highlights what we are seeing, which is that low hire, low fire, where if you're not in that high-skilled, high experienced group, if you're a new grad, if you're fairly low-skilled, or if you've been unemployed for any amount of time, the chances of you getting a job get get smaller and smaller by the week, it seems. And so this chart shows you the SP 500 along with job openings. And as you can see, typically those two for years have gone hand in hand and moved together. In 22, which is when ChatGPT first came out, and when AI really started, I think the current iteration of the AI boom really started, you see that decoupling. So now you see the SP up at up at you know record levels, but job openings are going in the opposite direction. So so we're seeing the people who have jobs keep them. We're not having massive amounts of layoffs, but if you don't have a job or if you're just coming into the workforce, it's not a pretty picture for you. And you have a much more difficult time finding a job. And I think that's really what it is. It's low hire, low fire. And as more and more companies, um, if we do start to really, really see this AI productivity, or just in general, companies are just not hiring as much. Um, I think again, just like we talk about a K-shaped economy, we've talked about a K-shaped um housing, um, housing economy. I think it just shows like we just continue to crack into two really different economies. And you have two two groups of people that are experiencing America right now in very, very different ways. And so I think that also goes against are we going to see a full recession? You know, I I don't I don't know because some people are having are are are living La Vita Loca, they've got that CapEx, they've got the government continuing to put money in, but then you have other people languishing and are probably going through their own recessions, personal recessions.

SPEAKER_04 34:01

I mean, we're literally looking at a K on this graph you can see a K right there. Um that's my that's my salient point that I'm adding today is I I saw a K. Um look, I I think I you know I don't want to be Greg's lawyer. Um, I mean I'd like to be Greg's lawyer, but I don't have a law degree. But if I was Greg's lawyer, I would say Greg doesn't want people to lose their jobs. And Greg doesn't want um for us to have uh you know some some sort of massive default event with our customers and in the mortgage industry. What Greg wants is easing of monetary policy that leads to lower rates that that jars things loose. That's really what he wants. And I think it's important to do a couple of things here. To one, to identify what a recession is, which is two or more quarters in a row of negative GDP growth, um, and also to bifurcate that there are two different kinds of recessions. There are demand recessions and there are credit recessions. Um, in every demand recession going back to 1982 that we've had, we've seen rates get better by an average of 150 to 200 basis points. I think it was uh 1991, then it was 2001. Um, the example that uh breaks that is 2008, which was a credit recession because we had the balance sheet losses and all of the defaults going on. And we saw unemployment at about long-term unemployment for those who are unemployed and took longer than six months to find a job at 45%. We're at half that number right now. Unemployment rate is relatively stable, even though to Aaron's point, it's not growing at the rate that we maybe like to see. But if it was growing faster, all we'd see is higher rates from the Fed anyway.

SPEAKER_01 35:34

Well, but it's also stable because more and more people are leaving the workforce. So we do have to acknowledge that.

SPEAKER_02 35:38

Yeah. And what's gonna happen with those people? Are they gonna are they gonna file claims? Are we just gonna is that is that gonna push the deficit? Yeah, yeah. But is that gonna push the deficit to 41 trillion?

unknown 35:49

That's not.

SPEAKER_04 35:50

I mean, if you're already at 40 trillion.

SPEAKER_06 35:52

What's another one?

SPEAKER_04 35:53

Yeah, what's another one? But the point is if we see a demand recession, which is which is caused by things like tariff inflation or tight monetary policy, then the Fed can ease that and we can work our way back into lower rates and an opening of the economy a little bit. However, if that does start to impact jobs in a more meaningful way, we're already seeing an uptick in foreclosures, we're already seeing an uptick in delinquencies on the non-QM side and on the FHA side. So, what's that going to mean if it starts to bleed into the job market, it starts to bleed into performance on loans? So I think it's a tricky line to walk to want to see a recession. But I think it's important to explain what a recession is and and how and how there are different kinds of recessions and what that may mean.

SPEAKER_02 36:36

I mean, to me, looking at this graphic, it just looks even more inevitable. Um, so you know, if you're if this is the direction we're heading in, let's just get there already so people can have a reset, so the economy can have a reset and we can you know hit the bottom and then spring back up, which is what which is what we're eventually going to do. My point is who has another five years to for that to happen? And consumers are really hurting, right? I mean, the the the the the wealth gap the the wealth gap has increased, uh, you know, it has widened uh more more than ever in the history of mankind. The the debt is at uh one point uh credit card debts over a trillion dollars. It's just all these signals, all these signs. Um it's just painful watching the slow watching the slow drip. So no, do I want people to lose their jobs? Come on, man, really? Is it do you really think that's what I want? Stop it, please. What Aaron?

SPEAKER_01 37:28

I'll say I mean bankruptcies are up. You look at at the the the rate with which bankruptcies are being filed this year. I mean, the signs are there. There is there are things going on underneath. And if we are stuck in this low hire, low fire, where nobody's hiring. But as you as as there are layoffs, as there are bankruptcies, as there are firings, that underbelly is gonna get bigger and bigger.

SPEAKER_02 37:49

So we're we're gonna talk now about the first the age of average age of the first-time homebuyer. Yes. Um this is your friends and our friends at the mortgage bankers association uh released some data uh that suggests that the average age of the first-time homebuyer, Aaron, is actually somewhere between, you know, right around 33 years old. And uh they point out that the data that the industry's been really looking closely at, this claim from NAR, uh 40 years old, was uh from a from from uh a mail survey that went out to 6,103 people. Unpack this for us, Aaron. Uh what's going on here? And who are we to believe?

SPEAKER_01 38:31

I love this topic because it, you know, so I I do want to give a shout out to friend of the show, David Hathaway. Uh, you know, he kind of challenged us a little bit, challenged me specifically a little bit from my comments last week on this. And I think this is an important discussion to have because ever since that NAR survey came out, there have been headlines, discussions. Even my favorite libertarian podcaster, Dave Smith, quoted this and it killed me because I just didn't feel the number is correct. So I did a I did a deep dive, and thanks to David, because he did send me some of his data in here, which is included. And I do want to say first, we have to distinguish between median age and average age. And I am lazy and make this slip up too, even in this week's promo. I said the average age, and that's just not the number that we need to be looking at. We need to look at the median age. Um, and so if you look at this, this is all the more recent, the most recent studies that we have. And there's really two main types of ways that that these places collect the data. And you can see the darker blue are administrative. So they're either looking at credit polls. So they're saying, okay, in a in a given time period, how many um how many had new mortgage trade lines there when they're never been prior to mortgage trade lines on their credit report? Or we're looking at application data where they're stating that they are are that they've not owned a home before. So that's two, but those are the administrative studies. And then you have surveys, which is the American Housing Survey and Redfin. They're actually asking people these questions. And then you had NAR, which was that that mail out survey. And the big dig on the NAR survey is that one, it was it was a mail out, the response rate was really low, the response rate skewed older. Also, the response uh they geographically adjusted it as well. So it was a very small sample. And I've heard people criticize the other the methodologies of the other surveys as well, saying, well, it was only like a 5% number, but you're talking about 5% of originations over an entire year. So that is just significantly bigger numbers. And when you see, regardless, you see both studies coming in in that 32 to 35 range, right? To me, that data is just telling me the median age is somewhere right in there. This 40 is the obvious outlier. What the NARS study, though, does include that I think is worthy of noting, is if they were a cash buyer, because the other ones us go on mortgage applications. So these are people who are getting mortgages, right? Um, and I think that's important. That's not going to be enough to skew it a huge amount, but it might skew it a little bit. And I think we also need to look at like our definition of a first-time home buyer in this industry is somebody who hasn't owned a home in three years. Well, what if you have somebody who had a home, lost it to foreclosure in the great financial crisis, and now is buying again? They would technically be looked at as a first-time home buyer, but are they really? They're going to be older. And so in digging through all of these surveys, what I found was they all have different methodologies, they all have different ways of pulling a sample. But I think when you have the group clustered like that, you have to look at that a real as a more reliable number. But to me, the bigger thing is does it matter? The actual number doesn't matter. Yes, we want to be precise. And I don't want a salacious headline creating fake news. But at the end of the day, we're trending up. This used to be in the 20s. So regardless of it's 32, 34, 35, 36, or even 40, what is the trend telling us? And that it's that people are getting older. It's that there are affordability issues. Are there are people not forming households? So so to me, the trend is is the headline. But I think we need to be really careful when we're saying this big number when it's just not supported by multiple other surveys. Now, if you look at average, uh David sent me some numbers. If you look at the average um on his, it is in the 4041. But average is average skew is gonna skew older. So I think median is the best way to look at it.

SPEAKER_02 42:20

You had a lot to say. You were keyed up. I think the show over now. I think we have to say goodbye. Are we out of time? Just kidding. Don't go anywhere, anyone. I'm just I'm teasing Aaron. You were uh no, don't do that. Don't do that. You were fired up. Run DMC. I love that. How can you have the run DMC sign uh blocked most of the time? You need to flip that and this other thing that we can't even see what that is. Because I'm a giant we want to we want to see her head. I understand what I'm saying. She's got the run DMC sign. Oh, you're saying flip them? Yeah, flip. I don't even know what that and then there's a gavel back there. What is that for?

SPEAKER_01 42:54

Is that that is my gavel that from Polenski Bital and Green for completing my year as the Texas NBA president?

SPEAKER_02 43:00

Oh, well, that's sweet. Okay, yeah. Now I feel like now I feel like a dickhead. Thanks. Appreciate it.

SPEAKER_04 43:05

Yeah, I I went to her going away party. What about you?

SPEAKER_02 43:09

Oh, I actually just so you know, uh, I went I went to surprise her at was her last TMBA event. I was in town for Housing Wires event, I think, right? Wasn't I?

SPEAKER_06 43:21

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 43:21

And I went I went over there for the all-women uh meeting thinking Aaron would be in there. I was like the only guy in the room, one of them, and Aaron wasn't even there. But we hung out in the lobby. We we hung out in the lobby and we had a great conversation.

SPEAKER_01 43:35

Yes, we did. It was lovely. I apologize for for not knowing you were you were there.

SPEAKER_02 43:39

Well, I was gonna I was trying to surprise you. That's the point.

SPEAKER_01 43:41

Because you're the best.

SPEAKER_02 43:42

Yes, you can't you can switch those signs around. Not you don't have to do it now, but I love Run DMC.

SPEAKER_01 43:47

Your wish is my command, my liege.

SPEAKER_02 43:49

Don't don't believe the hype, right? That's them. Don't believe the hype. This is why I don't have anything behind me.

SPEAKER_04 43:53

I don't want to be able to do that.

SPEAKER_02 43:54

Or is that public or is that public enemy? I'm really confused. Yeah, all right. Uh Kobe, what were we talking? Talking about? I'm just kidding. Your your thought, your thoughts on uh I I do have an opinion, which I'll I'll come through on here momentarily.

SPEAKER_04 44:08

You know, uh Erin summed it up best when she said, does it really matter whether it's 32 or it's 40? We know we have an affordability problem. We know the numbers trending up. Um, we should be accurate in all things, especially, you know, the NAR is a big advocacy group uh on a scale larger than the MBA if you look at their membership um and their budget. So, you know, is it their responsibility to put out something that's a little more responsible than a than a mail away survey to 6,000 people and then blast that number out anywhere they can? Um, yeah, I think they have a responsibility to do better. Um, you know, what I'm I'm concerned about that number. I'm concerned about the median age of loan officers, the median age of real estate agents in this country. Um, I think that contributes to part of the problem is that we have the people that are responsible for financing and selling homes that are not connecting with younger generation. I think that's absolutely contributing to the issue here. Um, the cost of building a starter home, which I think we got into last week, um, and and what that means if you're starting out in your career and with your family. So all of these things, you know, are are are part of the same housing porridge, which which right now doesn't taste that great.

SPEAKER_02 45:13

Porridge?

SPEAKER_01 45:14

Is it too cold or is it too hot or just tastes like too much salt?

SPEAKER_02 45:19

Are you gonna huff? Are you gonna huff and puff and are you gonna huff and puff and blow that house down, or is that a different fable?

SPEAKER_04 45:25

The salt is my porridge analogy not landing today. All right.

SPEAKER_02 45:29

No, I like that porridge. I mean, I've I don't think I've ever heard I don't think I've ever heard a human being use the word porridge. That's amazing. Congratulations.

SPEAKER_04 45:37

Did no one tell you a bedtime story when you were a kid?

SPEAKER_02 45:39

It must be the new background, which is looking very colorful.

SPEAKER_04 45:42

Um well, as you know, next week I'll be in a brand new place, so we'll try to do better.

SPEAKER_02 45:46

Well, you always are. So I want to let let me let me reframe this in in what I think is an interesting way. If we're all looking for progress in housing, which clearly we are, what is more advantageous to us? A headline that looks so ugly that gets everybody to stop and go, whoa, we have a problem we need to change, or a lower number. Okay.

SPEAKER_04 46:08

Yeah, but the problem is when we put out things that are hyperbolic and not necessarily based in fact, um, other people start to pick up the thread of that and we get we get solutions that we don't necessarily want. And I I talked about this in a LinkedIn post a couple of weeks ago with the uh what was the topic? It was about the lock-in effect and how that's actually influenced some of the Fed presidents and their thinking about what monetary policy can and can't achieve. And we've managed to convince a large majority of the Fed that no matter what they do, housing is going to stay locked because of the people with lower interest rates. So I think I think if we put out a narrative that's not rooted in fact and not accurate, we become the victims of unintended.

SPEAKER_02 46:46

We might as well stop doing surveys then, because Aaron, you want the truth. There is no truth in surveys. Just just look at the the housing surplus shortage we have, okay? The housing shortage. We've got some people saying there's none. We have others saying we're 10 million short, okay? And we have everything in between. So there is no truth here. So let me go back to my question. Um the perception that we're at this place where housing is the least affordable it's ever been. Doesn't that get us closer to solutions if everybody believes it? Not necessarily.

SPEAKER_01 47:20

I think there's a way to frame it. So so so it may not be salacious, but it's hey, these five surveys, which all maybe independently uh aren't reliable, but you put them together and you start to get some reliability, right? All of these different independent studies are saying the age is getting older. So there is an affordability problem. It's how you frame it.

SPEAKER_04 47:40

But I think we can rely on the 40 data that we have. We have accurate data. We know what the average, we know that a house now, a median price of a home is $440,000. We know that from January to June, the income it needed to buy a home in this country went from $90,000 to $105,000. We have real accurate markers to show that it's becoming more and more elusive to buy a home in this country. We don't need to rely on who cares how old the first-time buyer is. Like it doesn't really matter when you have other data that's telling a story that's far more compelling. Yes, that's part of the narrative, but it's not the narrative by any stretch of the imagination.

SPEAKER_02 48:17

This 40 number has been out there for six months or longer, right? I mean, it's been out there. I've written about it. Guilty. What yeah. What what why are we just hearing about this now? Why are we just hearing about the brittle nature of this survey? I had no idea until the great people at the NBA, Joel Kahn and Mike Frat and Tony, released this.

SPEAKER_01 48:34

Well, Mike Frat and Tony, I uh Mike Frat and Tony has been talking about this for a very long time. Um, you know, it and and so I I don't think it's just now coming up.

SPEAKER_02 48:43

Not not on the right platforms, clearly.

SPEAKER_01 48:45

Fair.

SPEAKER_02 48:46

So, I mean, they need to get out and talk to the people who people listen to. I'm not saying we're it, but I mean, we do get, you know, we have had 150,000 impressions in the last six weeks. So that's a lot of people in the industry. Kobe, did you want to say something else on this before we roll?

SPEAKER_04 49:02

You brought up Mike, Fred, and Tony, just the fact that one of the reasons it's coming up is because he recently put out a white paper on behalf of the NBA talking about how whether you think there's a supply issue or not doesn't really matter because we're we're not forming enough households and we're not having enough babies to make it matter anyway. So um the supply issue is going to solve itself by the fact that we're not producing enough households or people.

SPEAKER_02 49:22

Didn't he suggest somewhere along the lines? Do I remember that uh there was this thought that maybe we would uh overbuild and end up in a completely different quagmire?

SPEAKER_04 49:32

If you think if you think population is declining because we're not having enough babies and we're not letting immigrants into the country, then yeah, any any house we build is potentially contributing to an overbuilt problem.

SPEAKER_02 49:42

Yeah, well, maybe uh enough people are just not uh partaking in consuming porridge. Is that possible? It is possible. I'm gonna have the NAR commission a survey. Look out for yeah, yeah. Good luck uh with any any uh accuracy on that. Aaron, what are you doing? You're like you're like vibing into your computer big time right now. You're digging in. Are you are you like looking forward to the next topic here? I can see you. Your intensity, your intensity level has just ratcheted up.

SPEAKER_01 50:07

I feel like this is the best week. My whole week is downhill after this. So I'm just like soaking and bathing in every second of this conversation.

SPEAKER_02 50:14

Are you just hanging on to the last 10 minutes or so of this?

SPEAKER_01 50:17

Yes.

SPEAKER_02 50:18

Uh Kobe, yeah. What what are we looking at here? Let's let's uh move over to veterans right now. Man, these uh these folks cannot catch a break. They're the they're the first to serve and the first to get screwed in housing.

SPEAKER_04 50:32

Yeah, you know, we we uh we we entice we entice young people into the military in this country because it is an all-volunteer army, and there are recruiting centers all over the country, in high schools, at college campuses, uh, in strip malls everywhere, um, any kind of anytime there's a job fair of any sort, and and we promise them a few things. We promise them the glory of serving their country. Um, we promise them that they're going to have their education paid for, and we promise them that they're going to have VA health benefits, and they're going to have VA um home loan benefits that extend the life of their that extend the extend for their life. Um, what we've been doing lately is taking away those promises or leaving those promises unfulfilled. Um, so just to kind of give a background on this, what the VASP was the Veterans Affairs Servicing Purchase Program, it came out of the pandemic when all of those loans were in forbearance. Um what the VA has never had that HUD has is a partial claims um path for veterans to write the ship, so to speak, when they get in trouble on their homes. The FHA has that, it's paid out of the the FHA MMI fund. And but HUD doesn't have any MI. HUD has a guarantee fee, which goes to support uh guaranteeing 25% of the loan. And out of the forbearance, they instituted this VASP, which was supposed to take care of you know a small number of uh veterans in trouble, and it wound up um acquiring over five and a half billion dollars of loans from servicers at two and a half percent. Uh, that was a Biden-era solution to the pandemic issue, uh, the pandemic forbearance issue. When the Trump administration came in, they said, well, this is not what FUD was HUD, sorry, this was not what VA was intended to be, not HUD or FUD. Um, it was not supposed to be a servicer or purchaser of loans, five and a half billion dollars. This this doesn't seem to have any cap to it. Uh, this is putting far too much risk on the VA and far too much on the balance sheet. We need to end this. Um, unfortunately, that ending came with a week of notice. Um, and while thousands, 90,000 veterans had applications in line for this, it came with a week's notice, it was killed. The replacement took over 13 months to implement. It it finally passed in June. It's it's not going to be fully implemented until at least uh November or the end of November with uh trial payment plans that that we know on the FHA side fail about 40 to 60 percent of the time right now. Um and during that 13 months, unfortunately, 10,000 veterans lost their homes. Um during that same time, congressmen have proposed we triple the VA funding fee on Earls to pay for some benefits that severely disabled veterans need. Now, those benefits are important. We should grant them those benefits, but it should not come on the back of veterans that are already struggling to make ends meet when it comes to their homes. And we know that this abuse starts when they're first on base and they're given an allowance for rent because 75% of military families that live on base cannot make rent with the allowance given to them by the government. So this abuse seems to start from the moment these folks pass through basic training and are given housing, and it continues now through the life of the loan. And we already know all of the VA medical problems we're not going to get into here because it doesn't relate to housing directly. But the point is that we're we're now asking our military members to go and die in another war. And they have died. There's been 18 deaths as a result of the uh Iran war, hundreds, thousands, not not thousands, hundreds of injuries. Um, and that doesn't seem to be stopping anytime soon. So we're we're asking them to make the greatest sacrifice for our country while at the same time breaking and leaving promises unfulfilled on the benefits that they're supposed to receive. So this infuriates me. It should infuriate anybody that um that is uh in our industry that works with these veterans because all of us have at one point or another originated a V8 loan and and we know what it's like to be a military family and for them to receive that benefit, how important it is to them. Um, and when we see these kinds of things go on, um, it really calls into question where our priorities are as a country.

SPEAKER_02 54:35

Yeah, it's pretty tragic, Aaron.

SPEAKER_01 54:37

Yeah, I I completely agree. And you know, this is one area where I think another area where the Mortgage Bankers Association was was really ahead and helped to get the partial claim solution passed as quickly as it did. I remember in NAC of 2025, this was one of our advocacy topics before I think VASP was even fully sunset. And I know they were all over it. So, you know, thank you to Mortgage Bankers Association for getting the solution as quickly as we did. But you're right, veterans who have fallen through this gap absolutely need no type of bureaucratic red tape excuses to why something can't be done to make it right by them. We need to go back and and make things right, full stop.

SPEAKER_02 55:14

Anything else on this?

SPEAKER_00 55:18

We got to stop doing this to our veterans, period. I mean, it's a little bit better. They deserve better.

SPEAKER_02 55:23

There's a long, long, long, long history of the of the VA and missteps. I'm looking at it right now. Um, 2018, the GI Bill meltdown, the $10 billion medical records disaster, the claims backlog that won't die, um, you know, the wait time scandal. I mean, it I don't understand it. Like this should be the top priority of our government and for whatever.

SPEAKER_04 55:46

And it should be a simple, it should be a simple bipartisan rally.

SPEAKER_02 55:50

Yeah, it shouldn't be, it shouldn't, it they shouldn't allow it to be complicated. It just should be a lever you can never pull. Like this is what it is and what it's always gonna be.

SPEAKER_06 55:56

Yeah, right?

SPEAKER_02 55:57

And if we all have to pay a little bit more in taxes to protect those that have laid their lives on the line, yeah, no problem. Let's do it. But uh to to use veterans as a bargaining chip is about as low as you can go. That's for damn sure. Now we did have one more topic on the docket, if you will, on a on a lighter scale here. Peeling back the layers of building your personal brand. Ooh. Do you remember that we talked about doing this? We were gonna peel back the layers. I'm not exactly sure what that means. Um, Kobe, I think that was your writing, if I'm not mistaken. You know, I thought we were.

SPEAKER_01 56:37

That was totally me. I I was like, I don't, I don't know if this was even.

SPEAKER_02 56:40

Well, we want to have some fun. We want to have just a little bit of fun and talk about the journey that the three of us are on, right? We're all at different parts of the journey here in terms of what uh being a voice has meant to us and what it continues to mean. And and and really the objective is to just have a conversation about what we've been able to do and how we can bring people along with us. Um, so you know, ladies first, Aaron. I know that your your followers have grown, you're having a great time. You're out there posting uh a lot of content now, you're showing up on stages, you've decided that this is your life's calling. Um, and I know you've got some really exciting stuff coming up here in the in the days and weeks ahead that are going to make you even more prominently placed among the leaders in this industry. Um, so talk about this journey that you're on. How much fun are you having? And what's uh what's a piece of advice you can give others that that want to step on just as bright stages?

SPEAKER_01 57:33

Well, I'll be quick because I'm the I'm the baby of the group when it comes to this. I'm I'm almost at 3,000 followers. So if you don't follow me, please do so now so I can hit that big 3K mark. Um, you know, I'm still watching you guys and trying to learn from you guys, but I will say that this is just so much fun. Being able to talk about this industry, how we can help our communities and homeowners has been just the joy of my life. I love it. I can't wait to just keep doing more, talking more. I love everyone who reaches out to me, slides into my DMs talking about housing policy, things like that. Keep doing it. I love it. And I think the only thing I can say that is just be yourself. We people can sniff out inauthenticity. So, like I'm I'm rough around the edges. I have a sense of humor that a lot of people find distasteful, but that's the only way I know how to be. Um, and the only way you're gonna truly grow, grow your network is to just be yourself and let people see you.

SPEAKER_02 58:25

What is your brand? What do you want it to be? How do you want people to look at you?

SPEAKER_01 58:30

I don't even know. I can't even answer that.

SPEAKER_02 58:32

Well, I mean, you're figuring you're figuring out. I mean, I think one of the answers is that it's a moving target, it's always changing. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 58:37

Well, I mean, here's the thing. I I'm all about, I want to talk about housing policy and I want to talk about the truth behind the data, right? Like I like to, I want to like get behind all the salacious headlines, and that's what I truly want to talk about is like, how do we help consumers? How do we help homeowners and communities?

SPEAKER_02 58:52

Yeah, I love it. All right, Kobe.

SPEAKER_04 58:55

What's up, buddy? Yeah, peeling, peeling, peeling back the layers. Um, you know, I I uh I I too am really a baby in this. I I only started a couple of years ago, less than a couple of years ago, uh really being active and on LinkedIn and and using my voice. And and I've told this story many times. In fact, there's a video that just got put out yesterday that I interview I did with Mike Ferrossi about um, you know, how I reached out to you, Greg, at the beginning of my journey. And and we've shared those uh those the images of those DMs with uh with Aaron. Um and uh I didn't know what I was doing and I didn't really have an idea of what I wanted to do. I just knew that I had always been very opinionated about the business, and I had a lot of passion for the business, and I had a lot of passion for the people in the business. And when I I looked to the people that I saw using their platform, like you and and Brian View and others, and uh I thought, you know, maybe maybe I have something to say as well. Um, you know, and and I uh I've just really enjoyed the ride. I've been flattered and humbled by it, and it's been so cool. But what I've you asked Aaron about what her personal brand is. I I I think about that often because it is an evolving thing, it's a dynamic thing, it's live. Um, you know, and for me, it's can I can I stoke the fires of good conversation about topics and and and get people to to to politely disagree on things? I think that's really cool. And we have discourse that's polite and we're not uh you know issuing ad hominem attacks and we're actually talking about the data and talking about what's accurate and what's not and the difference of opinions on things. I I I love all of that, and I think all of that is good for our industry. Um, and I really cannot believe how many amazing people I've met over the last couple of years that are as passionate about this business. I think that's the cool thing is that is that we have so many people in our industry that are so passionate and care so much. And I've gotten to meet so many of them, and there are still so many that I haven't yet met. Um, but to me, it it's become a calling. I don't know that it was a calling when I started. It was, it was, it was a strategy. I thought, okay, I have something to say. Maybe if I do this, somebody will care. And now it's become a calling, and now it's become something that I feel is a responsibility, and and I'm very grateful for it. Um, and I'm and I wake up every day excited to see where it's going to go that day. And and this show is a byproduct of that. Being on the show with the two of you is 100% a byproduct of that. You wouldn't, nobody would have known who I was. So like I just count my blessings all the time. It's really great.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:26

What are the chances the two of us would be wearing the same colored shirt? We didn't well we didn't plan this. We didn't. We didn't know.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:38

I'm having a blast myself. I love it though. We're bookending, we're bookending Aaron, who's got a what does that say, lasagna on your switch?

SPEAKER_01 1:01:45

It's it's uh it's uh ode to my favorite podcaster.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:50

Ah, okay.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:52

Got it.

SPEAKER_01 1:01:53

Tell us about you. You're daddy Greg. Let's go.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:56

Daddy Greg, I'm the oldest person here, so I'm in the legacy phase of my career, you know. I just want to talk about stuff that people think about or that maybe they need to be thinking about, and I want to just hold everybody accountable. That's what I'm trying to do out here. So it's not a popular thing. I'm not always right. Sometimes I'm wrong. I know that. Sometimes I need to dig a little deeper. Uh, you know, I'm not afraid to correct my mistakes when I do trip. We all trip up, but you know, for the most part, I think I hit the mark and I work hard to hit the mark. And I just want to make an impact, you know. And and the message I have for anybody out there is that this this universe is infinite. And uh a lot of people overthink it and they hang in the shadows. And I can't tell you how many people say, Well, I love what you're doing, or I thought about doing this, or I thought about doing that, but I don't know where to begin. You just begin by beginning. Um, you know, it's a lot less complicated than trying to get a TikTok page up where you have to do videos and edit and all these things. My advice to anybody is to commit to posting every day for 30 days about something you're really passionate about and different iterations of that. If you simplify it and talk about your passion lane, whatever it is, draw from your experience and try and and help that uh clear the way for others to maybe have less obstacles uh or to to reach a better place quicker based on the experiences that you've encountered. Do that, do that for 30 days and and also engage with other people. Like this, this is uh what we're doing out here is so much fun. We're having a great time. And there's nothing, there's nothing like meeting new people in the business. And that's the other thing that this opens up, right? Also attend conferences, you know, attend NBA annual, which is coming up, attend Housing Wire events, um, digital mortgage mortgage collaborative, mortgage collaborative, uh, become a part of lenders one, whatever. Like get out there and and and mingle because you find the best ideas talking to other people that are out there in the trenches. And you also also find great ideas for content, right? There's a lot, there's a lot to talk about, and we are in really challenging times, right? And those of us that are left standing have a certain toughness about us, and we have a lot to share with those that are looking at us and that are maybe in the industry trying to figure out whether it's the right one for them, right? And I think it's our responsibility to pull them up and breathe life into them, even though I'm not always positive. You know, um I just want to tell the truth, you know, when I can or get as close to the truth as I can.

SPEAKER_06 1:04:31

Yes.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:32

Know what I'm saying? Do we have do we have anything else to anything else to touch on as far as uh as far as brand?

SPEAKER_04 1:04:40

Whether you think you can or you think you can't, you're probably right. So just use your voice, like you said, just get out there.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:46

Yeah, why did you just turn he just turned into an echo chamber? Did you hear that? What just happened in there?

SPEAKER_01 1:04:51

I know where are you? He switched rooms in the middle of the show.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:56

A new background. I don't know what the same background, though. Same background. The shadow of his head. Yeah, the shadow of his head is suddenly larger. It's very weird. I think his head may be growing. Is that possible?

SPEAKER_01 1:05:07

Yeah, I think so.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:08

Um ears grow as we get older, don't they? Hey, look who it is. It's Nyung.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:14

It's the queen.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:16

Everybody loves Nyoung.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:17

We love her, she's the greatest. Look at that. See, she didn't even kick herself off. She's getting in. We love her.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:23

She's not she started. She's gonna talk her. She's leaning. Finally talk on this episode. One of these days, one of these days we'll get her to talk. Yes. Um, all right, can we get her mom on? Huh? Can we get her mom on? We should. This was a lot of fun. We covered it, we covered a lot here. I mean, hopefully, next week when we have this conversation again, uh, maybe there'll be another you know, truce and you know, another I'm sure there will be. Yeah, you know, I mean, it's uh it's this is wild. We need this to end quickly. I mean, that's really at the root of everything right now.

SPEAKER_06 1:05:56

Correct.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:57

We need we need more certainty and less uncertainty because there seems like there's just a heap of uncertainty.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:02

Greg just summed the bond market up in one sentence.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:05

Yeah, it's wild. Poor capital markets people, they they must not be sleeping at all.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:11

No, it's not good.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:12

Yeah, it's gotta be hard to manage the hedge right now.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:15

Yeah, agreed. T's and peas to the cap markets folks out there.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:19

Yes, yes, yes.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:20

I see you.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:23

Next Thursday, we'll do it all over again.

SPEAKER_01 1:06:26

Yes, love you guys.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:27

Until then. No surrender. Keep it rolling. Peace out.

SPEAKER_07 1:06:35

No surrender on the toe. We both on the toe. What fail? What failed? Who is the goal?