Episode 12: Fauci, Fed's Latest Rate Decision & Private Listings

This week on No Surrender, one of the biggest political stories of the week takes center stage.

Dr. Anthony Fauci's Senate hearing, where he repeatedly invoked the Fifth Amendment while facing questions about the government's COVID-19 response and pandemic-era decisions, is already fueling heated debate across the country. We'll unpack what happened, where we stand, and why it matters.

We'll also break down the Fed's latest rate decision and what it could mean for mortgage rates, affordability, and the housing market, along with the growing battle over private listings, a debate raising big questions about transparency, competition, and who really benefits.

Transcript

unknown 0:36

Hey.

SPEAKER_06 0:37

Well, episode 12, the dirty dozen.

SPEAKER_04 0:40

Best day of the week.

SPEAKER_11 0:42

This is very exciting. It is uh daytime, but you would think it was nighttime because we're all wearing black.

unknown 0:48

No.

SPEAKER_11 0:49

Although I'm actually I'm actually wearing blue. Do you guys like my little alligator here?

SPEAKER_04 0:53

Little lacos thing going on.

SPEAKER_11 0:55

Any comment about the new neon sign behind me? Love it. Love it. And uh I guess we're official now.

SPEAKER_04 1:01

We are.

SPEAKER_06 1:02

We are. I do love it. I want one of those. I want one of those. And yeah, we are all in black. Um, still mourning the passing of our beloved Senator Lindsey Graham.

SPEAKER_11 1:13

Yeah. And uh and the and and not to mention the passing of 450 on the bond, because we are we've passed it and gone way up. What a shit show that was yesterday. Wow. Um we should get into the FOMC meeting because I'm trying to figure out, you know, make heads or tails out of what happened um as Kevin Warsh stepped forward with no change um at all. There were there were uh three officials dissented uh and wanted a hike, not a cut. Um and I don't know, what did the market expect? I guess I feel like had they raised rates, maybe we wouldn't have had that violent of a reaction, but it was the worst day of the year, um, as the Dow Jones was down uh considerably, almost 1200 points, SP 112, NASDAQ 433, and then of course the bond uh yesterday shot up to 47. I mean it it was up nine ticks, mortgage rates deteriorated. This is getting really, really tough, folks. Not gonna lie. It's uh this this war has been awful. It has been one of the worst things that I've ever seen in my lifetime uh in terms of how quickly things have deteriorated around us. Um, where do we begin, Aaron? What did you think of uh of Kevin Warsh and what he said and why the reaction?

SPEAKER_04 2:36

Yeah, well, you know, initially there really wasn't um that that bad of a reaction, right? But it was it was in his press conference that we really really saw the market reacting to it. And first, you know, I'm not surprised at the dissenters, specifically at Lori Logan. She was in Texas last week or the week before, and her comments were were very much indicative of the fact that she felt we needed to hike. And so, not surprised by her her being a dissenter at all, was not surprised by Wamek. Um, and so, you know, I think that that shouldn't be a surprise to most people. But, you know, if you really listen to what Warsh was saying in his press conference after the fact, he was really talking about, you know, getting through the noise, noise versus signal, um, in the inflation data, and really saying what is from a shock to the economy versus what are what are the underlying prices actually doing? And so, really kind of talking about separating, hey, the price increases that we're seeing now through the war this time, um, but what are prices overall doing? So it seemed like he was being not as hawkish um on the inflation numbers. At least that's that's kind of what I saw. And I don't think the market liked that.

SPEAKER_11 3:51

Kobe Wars said there was a conversation about kind of separating the effects of the war with what's happening in the real economy. That's kind of what Aaron is is referencing. He also made a comment that totally jives, and we'll share it in a moment, along with some other comments he made, and that is that the market is kind of doing the work of the Fed right now.

SPEAKER_02 4:09

Yes.

SPEAKER_11 4:10

There's already been a there's already been a price increase. We're feeling it in our rate sheet. So, what more is there for them to do at this exact time?

SPEAKER_06 4:17

Yeah, you know, and and it was the typical Hawks that dissented. It was uh Hamek and uh Kashkari and Logan that uh that signaled that they wanted a hike. And the market thinks there's an 80% chance or almost an 80% chance there will be one in September. But I mean it it's in line with what Warsh talked about when he was testifying in front of the Senate. And he talked about not having these extremes and these knee-jerk reactions. So I I think I think that position of let the market do its work, that's also in line with why he doesn't want to do dot plots and projections and say little. And if you think about the market reaction, you had that graphic up, the percentages in terms of what it was down. I mean, they were all like in line, about one and a half percent, two percent, not horrible numbers, but but basically voicing its displeasure where where what it thinks the Fed did based on the facts on the ground. But I think if you're Kevin Warsh and and you're and you're trying to separate the underlying foundation of the economy from the war, the war is essentially a temporary thing. It it doesn't have legs to go seven, 10, 12 years. We don't have boots on the ground. There's no ground invasion talked about. The the two sides have looked for exits multiple times. So it's not like this is a war that's never going to end. It's just, you know, it just seems that way because of how many times it already has ended. So I think I think what Warsh did today was responsible. I I think the market probably doesn't like the fact that he's not giving forward projections. And I think that part of the displeasure is around that. Um, but you know, again, you know, I said on the last episode or two episodes ago that I was kind of warming to the way he was doing things. And I, you know, he he he uh to me showed a steady, eddy hand today that I I applaud. I think he did a good job. And um, if we have a rate hike in September, we'll see. September's a long time from now, just based on all the things that could happen.

SPEAKER_11 6:06

Oh, I mean, so much can happen. Yeah, right. But it but we already hit four seven.

SPEAKER_06 6:10

We already hit four seven earlier this week. So, you know, we're we're below that number now. So I don't think the reaction's been all that bad.

SPEAKER_04 6:17

I think you know, the one thing though that I I would, in my nerdy little circles, would love to talk through is he went through the shocks of the system and trying to separate shocks versus actual prices. But it was COVID, it was supply chain, it was AI capex spending, it was tariffs, it was wars. I mean, the thing, if you take a step back, we've been going through one solid shock after another for the last six years. And so to me, I do think that I get what he's saying, but I also kind of want like to me, that's just something that at a certain point when you're just in a constant shock, that's got you can't completely separate them.

SPEAKER_11 6:53

Yeah, let's just take a quick listen to them earlier.

SPEAKER_00 6:55

It's higher today than they were 42 days ago. Um markets have made decisions because we step back in part from trying to influence those. Market judgments have moved up on what nominal rates are across the treasury curve. That doesn't mean we take them as uh by dictation, but we're observing them. So I think it's a mischaracterization to say that markets haven't reacted because we didn't move today. Markets are reacting in real time.

SPEAKER_06 7:28

And I love that. Is that how slow he really talks? Did you play that at like a lower speed?

SPEAKER_11 7:32

Or no, he's very methodical in how he talks. Very measured, very measured, slow. He cuts twice, he measures twice, he cuts once. Well, and whoever's like that, you're like that. You're like that, Kobe, aren't you? Yeah, you're very detailed. You're very detailed. Although, when it comes to your new setting, you're not that detailed yet. Where is Elizabeth with the uh enforcements here? We thought like I brought a new sign today, no surrender. Yeah, you're just bringing you're just bringing a shadow.

SPEAKER_06 8:01

Yeah, no, I I mean this is uh this is an indictment on Elizabeth and the fact that she hasn't yet shown up to to set up my office and to what's going on?

SPEAKER_11 8:08

Are you guys going are you going through tough times? Is there something no, not at all?

SPEAKER_06 8:11

Just uh logistics. She spent a good two weekends helping me move and helping me pack up. She she did yeoman's work. Um, I mean, you know, just uh significant other of the century award she won for all of that. Oh wow.

SPEAKER_04 8:22

Uh is that almost like a trophy or yeah, yeah, it's a trophy or it's a trophy, Aaron.

SPEAKER_06 8:28

Um, and uh, you know, which which will be proudly displayed probably behind here because she'll appreciate it that much. She'll want to you know give it right back to me.

SPEAKER_11 8:36

Uh if you were any if you were any closer, if you were any closer to the wall, I feel like your head would be banging up against it right now. Can you can you touch the wall?

SPEAKER_06 8:44

Can you touch the wall? I mean, of course.

SPEAKER_11 8:46

Will you touch the wall? Will you kiss the wall? I can touch the wall. Will you kiss the wall? When you were a kid, did they ever they did this to me by the way? Did they did you ever have a teacher draw a circle on a chalkboard or on a wall and have you stick your nose in it?

SPEAKER_06 8:58

I had a teacher in fifth grade that would put kids in the corner and he would tell them, You see that nail in the wall? Watch it, and if it moves, tell me. And he would just leave them back there for the longest time.

SPEAKER_04 9:09

What? You guys are weirdo. Greg, I think that was what happened to you. Reconsider that.

SPEAKER_11 9:15

Aaron, you're no saint. We uh we we talk to mom. Don't forget, we know Jan. Okay, we do, you do.

SPEAKER_06 9:20

We know about the party, we know about the party. Um, no, Elizabeth, Elizabeth will be back. She's got um some stuff she's dealing with right now. She's got some some, you know, and and I've got just deals. We love you, Elizabeth. We love you, Elizabeth. You're a saint lady, and it's gonna look great behind me.

SPEAKER_11 9:35

You make Kobe look great. I I met Elizabeth. Aaron, have you met Elizabeth?

SPEAKER_04 9:40

Of course, she's awesome.

SPEAKER_11 9:41

Yeah, all right. We were at the yeah, we were at the game, we were at the uh Yankee game together. That's right. My memory is just trash. Um, I bet uh Anthony Fauci wishes his memory was trash because he got absolutely lit up yesterday. Let's have some fun. First of all, first of all, so he's got this diary. I don't know who the hell got a hold of it and why.

SPEAKER_04 10:01

Rand.

SPEAKER_11 10:02

It was Rand. This looks like my diary. This these are some of the things that Fauci said. Uh, this was you know, uh revealed days before he uh testified in front of the Senate uh yesterday. The press is hot and heavy about me. I am the most famous person in the world. What a freak. One person said that Tyra Banks was sexy, but that I was even more sexy than she was.

SPEAKER_02 10:27

Totally agree.

SPEAKER_11 10:30

Uh CNN's Jake Tapper even invited Fauci over for dinner during lockdowns. Fauci confessed he knew COVID wasn't as deadly as he claimed it was. That last line is like, whoa, stop the press. I mean, this guy, what the hell is going on here?

SPEAKER_02 10:43

He only knew it was a lab week.

SPEAKER_11 10:46

I'm gonna be honest with you. I I was I was a huge fan um during COVID. He was the guy I leaned on. But what happened?

SPEAKER_06 10:55

The worst part of all that is I had to read that while I was getting my 12th COVID booster. And I'm like, you know, I thought this guy was for real. He told me to keep six feet away, flatten the curve. Um, I mean, look, no one has ever buried themselves worse than this guy with that diary that he kept. Yeah, I just you know, I mean it.

SPEAKER_11 11:18

Where did they discover this?

SPEAKER_04 11:19

Well, it was Rand Paul. So, so government officials do this, they keep diaries so that they can write their memoirs. And so Rand Paul is the one that got access to all of this through the subpoena process, I guess. And he leaked it all. And like the thing is, is is once those come out ahead of his testimony, he has two choices. He perjures himself or he pleads the fifth. I mean, like, because perjury perjuring himself is a whole new crime that he was not pardoned for. That's a whole new crime. But now there's even questions on whether he could have even pled the fifth, and that just put him in a real bad position and he had a very bad day today.

SPEAKER_06 11:58

Yeah, my understanding is you can't plead the fifth if you've been pardoned.

SPEAKER_11 12:01

Yesterday, Aaron, yesterday he had a bad day.

SPEAKER_04 12:03

Sorry, you know what? I didn't sleep well last night. It feels like one long day to me.

SPEAKER_11 12:06

The days just run together, don't they?

SPEAKER_06 12:08

Yeah, Kobe, go ahead. It's a big day. You know, I my understanding was you cannot plead the fifth if you have been pardoned. But, you know, I mean, look, the damage is done. Because what good is there for us to like go further with this? He's embarrassed himself, he's had a bigger downfall now than probably Rudy Giuliani. Like, what do you want? Do you want him in prison? Like, what's that gonna do? But why? Why?

SPEAKER_11 12:30

Aaron, Aaron contends, Aaron contends that he killed millions of Aaron contends that he killed millions of people.

SPEAKER_04 12:36

I contend that prison for Fauci is the moderate position. This man lied to us about COVID after funding gain of function research, lying about it, lying about the origins, lying how bad it was. He specifically drove policies that took our children out of schools, masked them up, forced a vaccine on people, and then made people lose their jobs if they wouldn't, shut down our economy that made businesses go completely out of business. We had to watch our loved ones die on Zoom. We we were not able to be in hospitals with our loved ones. Careers were ended because they chose to stand up to the COVID regime. And the fact that that now he's yeah, he had a really bad day. Unless something actually happens to this man and he has to reckon for what he did to our economy, to our society, to help further government tyranny. What is it all for? It was all showmanship. He has got to be locked up.

SPEAKER_06 13:35

What's the crime?

SPEAKER_04 13:38

Well, lying about well, first of all, he knew where it came from. So he funded this gain of function research, which is why COVID was even a thing. Then he tried to push uh the fact that it was some sort of like bat farm or what was it, like bat market deal. He lied to Congress multiple times. So the crime should be lying to Congress, but I'd settle for mass murder.

SPEAKER_11 13:59

But he's been pardoned. So anything he said in front of Congress, I'm guessing he's good.

SPEAKER_04 14:03

Which is why he had to plead the fifth today 111 times.

SPEAKER_11 14:07

It was yesterday, by the way. Um anyway, yeah. Uh sorry.

SPEAKER_04 14:11

See, I told you, like, I'm fired up about this. I can't even think of it.

SPEAKER_11 14:14

I know, I know. It's um it's unbelievable. Um, you know, look, I'll I'll give you my take.

SPEAKER_06 14:18

I'll give you my take on this. You know, this this guy was put in a pretty bad, in a pretty bad position to have to hold on. I I let you rant. You know, I look, I apologize. That's okay. It's you're good. I'm just fired up. I'm just saying this guy, this guy was put in charge of a mess from day one. I think if I'm just going back to what his actions were and the guidance he gave and and and and the public persona around it and the way that he tried to influence policy around it, there was a lot going on that was more than just him. But I do think that what he was doing for the most part was responding to information that was coming in in real time. In retrospect, because knowing what we know now, a lot of it looks terrible because it just doesn't fit. The pieces don't fit. But he was dealing with information coming in in real time, and he was dealing with a lot of pressure from both sides. He was dealing with the right, telling him to open things up, he was dealing with the left, telling him to close things down. He was dealing with governors in 50 states who each had their own agenda. I I think he did himself a massive disservice with the ego stuff and directing some some federal resources to try to get more fame for himself. But um, you know, look, I I don't see where this guy is a mass murderer or some kind of uh you know genius villain criminal that we need to put in the wheel.

SPEAKER_11 15:35

I mean, the thing about the thing about it is we know we I I'm kind of torn. Like he was a hero to me, but but seeing what was going on behind the scenes and how he was just eating up, gobbling up the headlines head to toe, uh, obviously he wanted he this guy is a sick guy. I mean, let's just be honest. I mean, who who the hell thinks like that in the middle of what we were going through? That anything's everything's on the table, basically, after seeing what this freak show was thinking as people were dying all over the place, and and I was wearing five masks and wiping off every grocery I had, three freezers in my garage. I mean, totally bugged out. And I was listening to him.

SPEAKER_04 16:19

Yeah, well, and the thing is, is I understand and I can appreciate where Kobe is is trying to come to his defense, but the emails, the diary proves that he was receiving real-time data about that it was not nearly as bad as what he said it was. And he he ignored it, he obfuscated it, he hid it, right? He he actively engaged in a cover-up of the origins of where it was. And so I'm sorry, but I don't think he was acting on real data.

SPEAKER_11 16:45

Oh, I guess I just I I no, I know Kobe is he's very sad right now.

SPEAKER_04 16:49

But yeah, but yesterday was just, you know, watching all of those clips from, you know, as they were just coming in through my Twitter feed, right? At first it was super amusing because you're seeing him get yelled at by Josh Hawley and this and that. It was it was really amusing yesterday to watch it first. But then when you think about like Kobe, like he literally was getting information, the diaries proved that he was getting information that he was obfuscating, then going out and saying the complete opposite. And so, like, it's hard to defend that.

SPEAKER_11 17:14

Before let's let's play this interaction between him and Holly yesterday. It's pretty funny.

SPEAKER_00 17:20

We're put in place.

SPEAKER_11 17:21

You know, I know you're shocked, Aaron, that I played the wrong sound bite. Uh, that's par that's par for the course. I have to do that at least once during every show. So now I'm not sure. You're correct.

SPEAKER_01 17:32

Those policies.

SPEAKER_11 17:34

Oh my God, what is going on here? I've never done it twice. Hold on.

SPEAKER_09 17:37

On the advice of counsel, I respectfully decline to answer based upon my rights under the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution.

SPEAKER_01 17:44

Let's just get one thing straight. You don't have any rights under the Fifth Amendment because you've been pardoned, as you very well know, as the Supreme Court has been clear for a century and more. Brown versus Walker, 1896. When he has been pardoned, he may not stand upon his privilege. You know that. Your lawyers sitting behind you now shifting nervously in their chairs. They know it. This isn't about the Constitution, this isn't about the law, this is about contempt. Contempt for this body and contempt for the American people. But I think I know why you're doing it. It's because you don't want to answer questions. It's because you did all kinds of terrible things. It's because during the pandemic you got rich, didn't you? You got rich while people were dying, hundreds of thousands of Americans, over a million in the end, and you were getting rich. And not only were you doing that, you were using federal employees with taxpayer money to apply for and solicit cash prizes for you personally. Cash prizes totaling over a million dollars. You did all of that during the pandemic, didn't you? That's a question.

SPEAKER_09 18:52

On the advice of counsel, I respectfully declare All right, they can put them in jail. I'm sold.

SPEAKER_06 18:57

Well, you know, first of all, when you're uh when you're quoting Brown versus Walker, you know it's serious.

SPEAKER_11 19:05

I'm just wondering why why the attorney was squirming. They also have hemorrhoids, the attorney. Um you know why is the attorney?

SPEAKER_04 19:15

Yeah, listen, this this just affected society so bad, you know, it's it's it's it's a big deal, and he really does need to suffer consequences.

SPEAKER_11 19:26

Jail. You think you should you think he should be put to death, Aaron?

SPEAKER_04 19:30

I think he should be put away for the rest of his life.

SPEAKER_06 19:34

Get new meaning. You drop the soap, you get a new kind of fauci ouchie.

SPEAKER_04 19:42

Can we end on that?

SPEAKER_11 19:45

A fauci? You think he's got it like that? You think that little man? Do you think that little man can deliver a fauci ouchie? Or is it a fauci fauci pokey?

SPEAKER_06 19:57

I don't think he would get a fauci. I don't think he's I don't think he's pitching in prison.

SPEAKER_11 20:02

Maybe he'll do the hokey pokey, Aaron.

SPEAKER_04 20:04

He'll be getting plenty of jabs.

SPEAKER_11 20:06

Oh gosh. Uh private listings. Um Leo Perea, CEO of EXP. He had a uh an op-ed of sorts in Inmin. Um, and he has uh highlighted a what seems like a super legitimate concern about appraisals and uh and properties that are not hitting the MLS and how it may affect every chain in the ecosystem. Um, this is not his voice, by the way. They did one of these audio book kinds of things. Clearly, it's not his voice. But let's hear what what Leo had to say uh in the voice of someone from Inman.

SPEAKER_03 20:40

A marketplace that lets sellers hide inventory in private networks isn't consumer choice, it's consumer cost, and it falls hardest on the buyers who already have the least access. First-time buyers and buyers without an insider's Rolodex. But there's a question in this debate that hasn't gotten nearly enough attention, and it cuts to the heart of consumer fairness: whether the numbers underneath every mortgage in America are still going to add up. What this could do to every mortgage in America, home lending in this country runs on comps. When an appraiser values a house for a loan, the rule is simple: at least three settled comparable sales pulled overwhelmingly from the MLS. That agreement is the plumbing of the entire U.S. mortgage system. It's why an appraiser in Reston, Virginia can trust a comp as much as one in Sacramento, California. It's the same plumbing underneath more than $13 trillion in outstanding U.S. mortgage debt, every dollar of it underwritten on the assumption that the comps behind it are real, complete, and current. That system only works when virtually every sale flows into the same shared pool. Increasingly, it doesn't. A growing share of transactions now move through private, closed marketing arrangements before or instead of ever reaching the open market. Some of those sales never make it into the shared system at all. Others show up late or missing the very fields, price history, days on market that tell an appraiser whether a price reflects the real market or a fluke.

SPEAKER_11 22:14

So it would seem like Kobe, and I I know where you're going because you we talked in pre-production here. You don't buy the all of that. Um and I I want to hear it because I'm I'm trying to figure out, and I and I I've been bothered by this since Compass did what they did and many followed suit. How it's an advantage for for a buyer, um, or I should maybe say how what a big disadvantage it is for a buyer. I would want to know days on market. I would want to know uh the challenges that the property's had relative to others. To me, what Leo's saying makes a lot of sense, and I think it's a big problem.

SPEAKER_06 22:49

Well, there's a few things here to unpack. Um, you know, one, in regards to the private listing network, what we're really talking about is the choice that a seller has or the ability for the seller to make a choice about how his property comes to market.

SPEAKER_10 23:02

Um, you know, his his his or hers. His or hers, I'm sorry. Yes, yes, yes. Okay, just making sure.

SPEAKER_06 23:08

He's or she's. Um for example, uh, you know, Compass has what they can what they call their three-phase marketing platform, which is private exclusive to coming soon to then on the open market. Um, the the reality is that over 90%, and I think it's something like maybe even close to 95% of properties that start in either the coming soon or the private exclusive, whatever brokerage you are that that or MLS that has that uh ability to do it, uh, most of those do come to the open market. They come to the open market pretty quickly. And then about 85% of those um do get sold from two different brokerages. In other words, the brokerage is not double-ending. So this really comes down to what um seller choice is and how their property is marketed. And there is no data about how a property that's not yet on the market, either because its address is not there or the price is not there, or maybe both, how that influences comps and how it may disrupt the mortgage business. Um, I think that's a uh that's that's a some kind of false flag argument that that that says that there's an impact to mortgage that really isn't. Days on market, if you want to talk about days on market, that's something that the real estate world took on as a mantra to as a negotiating ploy. If a property is on the is on the market for X many days, then it somehow means that a potential buyer can use that to their advantage. It doesn't really reflect the reality of what's going on with the price. There are a lot of reasons why homes stay on the market for multiple days. The house I bought in 2014 in Illinois, uh, the house was on the market because the old lady that owned it didn't want to sell because she had raised her family there and she was rejecting offer after offer after offer. And we finally came and made an offer with a you know a letter of the heart that we wanted to raise our child there and she sold it to us. And it had been on the market 150 days at that point. It's that's an outlier.

SPEAKER_11 24:58

That's an outlier.

SPEAKER_06 24:59

It's it's it's it what it means is that days on market means a lot of different things. And it could mean that, it could mean that somebody prices it too high and then comes back down to earth. Selling a home is an emotional thing, and even though you have agents that list most homes in this country, even though FISBOs, most of those come to market, it's still an emotional thing. Why shouldn't sellers be allowed to have a choice in how their property is marketed? We already do that in in places like Austin. Uh about 20% of homes start off on the private listing network before they ever come to market. Why? Because a lot of homeowners in Austin don't want their homes ever to reach the public market because appraisers in that area can use that data to reset property taxes.

SPEAKER_11 25:38

Well, Kobe, let me let me redirect you to the appraisal point. Uh, because I know Aaron has a lot to say about it, but I want I want to just make sure that you touch on what Leo was saying about um values and how this could compromise the integrity of loans.

SPEAKER_06 25:52

Yeah, I I I don't see how that's possible because again, most of the private listing networks um listings come to come to the general market, over 90% of them. So if anything, the reason that I'm in support of private listings is because it actually can increase the amount of inventory that comes to market. Imagine if you can put your home on the market and get a free look without actually listing it, without actually putting your address out there or the price. You can sort of get a you can have this marketplace where every home is theoretically for sale, and and putting your home on the market can actually give you an indication of what it might sell for if you bought it. That could really solve a lot of issues in a lot of markets.

SPEAKER_11 26:29

You don't buy fundamental fundamental markets.

SPEAKER_06 26:31

I don't see what he hasn't. Nobody that has talked about how this is a potential appraisal problem has walked us through how that actually works and how it actually becomes a problem. They've just said they could be.

SPEAKER_11 26:45

That's a theory.

SPEAKER_06 26:46

That's a theory, not an argument.

SPEAKER_11 26:47

All right, Aaron.

SPEAKER_04 26:49

So let me walk you through it. Um, as an underwriter, right, I assess risk. And one of the biggest parts of my collateral of my loan is is the collateral, what I can get for it, what it would look like if I have to foreclose on that property, right? And so understanding specific to the days on market, that's tells me, okay, what does it look like if I'm gonna have to sell this house in this market? Right. So it's a piece of data that goes into my risk analysis when I am underwriting this property, right? So yeah, you you gave a great anecdote, and maybe that one anecdotal comp would show up on my appraisal as having 360 days on market. But then if I'm looking, hey, what's the average or median days on market in this general area? Is it 30 days? Is it 90 days? Is it 70 days? What is it? That tells me something. If I, you know, that's that's one of the things we're looking at, like in DSCR loans, right? Home, these homes are on the if they're in a market where the home is homes are going to be on the market much longer, maybe that then there you're you're gonna be more likely to have cuts, have price cuts. Is it gonna be harder if I have to foreclose on this property, if I'm in a super high LTV to have to to dispose of this property? So it's a piece of data that goes into helping me understand the collateral that is underlying my loan. And so if we have these various markets where I've got, I don't know if I'm getting the full picture because there's only I'm only getting half of the market sales. Well, then there's 50% of the market that goes into how an appraiser is deriving their value of or their opinion of value on that property. And so not enough, there's not enough data or not as much data that is going into telling me the value and the market conditions of this collateral that I am lending on. And so that I think is where they're coming from. And I don't disagree with them. To me, have I I worked in Austin for the entire entirety of COVID and even before. So I fully well understand what the Austin market is and what it was. And and when you are missing these data points, you don't always get the best view of the market. Now, Kobe, to your point, these appraisals or you know, these listings will eventually come on. Um, but you're gonna miss part of the marketing period. But the the take I have on this is is a little bit different than the take that that Greg presented because honestly, I am fully in favor of private listings. I don't think that anybody should tell me as a like private property owner how to market my home. And like the basis of private property rights and what I do with my property is literally the most fundamental, one of the most fundamental things of being an American. And so I don't think people should be out there telling me what to do. But what I do think it's saying is that to Greg, to your point, this is an emerging issue. And I think this is a perfect example of where the market is going to need to catch up, or the industry and our practices are going to have to catch up to where the market is going. We're gonna need to adapt and we're gonna need to figure out how else we can get this data that helps give me a reliable indicator of value and of what the market conditions are that on this collateral that I'm lending on.

SPEAKER_06 29:58

Yeah. Let me push back on you there, Aaron, because if you're an underwriter and you know that 90 plus percent of these properties are gonna hit the market. And you also know that closed comps are more valuable than active comps anyway, in terms of telling you what a market's really doing. You still have the closed comps, you got 90% of these listings coming to market. Austin, which you worked in, already has 20% that are in the private listing network. And there's no issue evaluating comps there. There's no broken real estate system there.

SPEAKER_04 30:26

You've never had to do ROVs once you get an appraisal done.

SPEAKER_06 30:29

Fair enough. But what I what I'm saying is, are you really faced with some sort of impending issue coming that we're going to face because the private listing network is now a hot topic versus the fact that it's already been around forever in multiple markets, and some of them as robust as Austin, where it's 20% of all listings that come on start as exclusive listings or pocket listings. Come on. I I just I just don't see this as an issue. I see what I do see, what I do see is Leo Perea and James Dwiggins, EXP, and Next Home fighting back against Compass and the fact that they keep making acquisitions and now have 340,000 some agents, and they're worried about them controlling the market and controlling the deals, and they're worried about agents in markets saying, hey, I should just pack up and move over to Compass because they've got um all these private listing um private exclusives and coming soons, and and they're controlling a lot of the listings in our area. That's what they're really fighting against under the guise of this isn't fair for buyers, it's not fair for the market. And oh, by the way, it's going to present this massive problem for the mortgage industry.

SPEAKER_11 31:29

I don't I don't know how you can say it's fair to buyers to not have full visibility on the market conditions, it's way too big of a purchase. Buyers have full visibility. Now they not have full visibility because they because they don't have uh visibility into things like days at days on the market, uh, in some instances. I can I contend that days of market is overused, and and price cuts. No, it isn't. I mean, how many houses have you bought? It's it's a such a valuable tool. It's not it's it's an invaluable tool. I mean, just just because Aaron, you talk about property rights, I get that, but sometimes you put systems in place which just with which just work. Okay. So property rights are the the the average loan now is what average purchase is $400,000 and change. Like it's yeah, this we saw what happens when the housing market has issues with collateral, and you know, it's so fragile, it can collapse a global economy. And so I don't want to get into a situation where all of a sudden you have people uh buying houses for that they can't afford or houses that shouldn't be as expensive as they are. They're basically getting duped and misled because there isn't the full visibility on on um you know how many days it's been on the market and and the price cuts and things of that nature.

SPEAKER_06 32:44

So that's a that's a that's a pretty that's a pretty long spanning bridge to go from days on market to if you don't have visibility on days on market that that somehow goes to fraud and getting duped.

SPEAKER_04 32:53

But like just the practicality of it though, honestly, it makes it a bit of a logistical nightmare as well, right? So again, in Austin with all of these private listings, you get your appraisal in and it doesn't hit your sales price because the market data out there doesn't support it. Then you get hit with the the realtor who wants all of these off list or private list networks, come back and says, What? There's all these comps, and now you've got to go back and look at all of these other sales, come force the appraiser to go back and re-render a value of opinion based on all of this private data. And so you also have you know appraiser coercion issues, you have all of that. So there are other also practical issues that this will that this causes in lending as well.

SPEAKER_11 33:32

You're taking the power out of the hands of the buyer. That's the problem I have with it, Kobe.

SPEAKER_06 33:37

That's the that's the argument that the Leos of the world make.

SPEAKER_11 33:40

Yeah, I'm not talking about, I mean, this is not about Leo. This is my argument.

SPEAKER_06 33:43

It doesn't take someone that's power away from the buyer. These are these are these are listings that the seller has made a decision about how they want to market the property. When the seller is ready, they come to market. The buyer has visibility into them. So again, it's 90% of them hit the open market. And even with even if they don't hit the MLS and they're still private exclusives, they're still being marketed. They're just being marketed within that brokerage's website. So it's not like the buyers don't see them. I mean, that that that part that part I simply just don't agree with.

SPEAKER_11 34:08

So there are two different issues here that we're talking about, and we can move on. But what one is the appraisal issue and the collateral, and are we setting ourselves up for something catastrophic? The other one is the private listings, and I think people are pretty much divided on that.

SPEAKER_04 34:21

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_06 34:22

So the real estate world is is on fire over this thing.

SPEAKER_04 34:24

The appraisal thing does need to be addressed.

SPEAKER_11 34:28

Well, and Aaron, you're you're part of the Mortgage Bank Association, you're on ResBog. Is this something that you guys have talked about or you think should be talked about?

SPEAKER_04 34:36

This is this is definitely uh, you know, as you said, this is an emerging issue, so it has not come across um the conversations I've had there yet. No.

SPEAKER_11 34:42

Maybe maybe you could tee it up and and we can report back as to you know what the level of concern is.

SPEAKER_04 34:47

See if there's any interest there. Yeah.

SPEAKER_11 34:49

Yeah, yeah, for sure. All right. LO recruiting. It is. I mean, talk about on fire. Uh, we are in what I think is the most interesting recruiting time I've ever been a part of. It's been, you know, I've been in the industry for 29, 30 years, and we're at a real inflection point right now. I know that word gets used loosely, but imagine you're a loan officer who has been struggling to pull the numbers you used to pull for four or five years and all the head fakes, and yet here we are, another head fake. It's head fake. And so we've the spring market is over. You thought you were getting rates in the sub-sixes. Now all of a sudden you're looking at 7%. Pipelines are drawing, drying up, and the recruiters know it. And they are in a complete frenzy right now. I'm seeing it. We actually lost a couple of people. We're in the process of gaining a bunch of people. And I think this is just the beginning. I think this is going to be a there's going to be a real sea change in mortgage when it comes to consolidation. And this is the moment. This is that potential apocalyptic moment that we've been talking about where a bunch of people roll up. I know it's been in in in uh bits and pieces, but I'm telling you, I this is what this is the life I live every day. And it's wild. So I wanted to just bring it up and and just make the call right now that you're about to see movement like you've never seen before.

SPEAKER_04 36:11

I think so. I mean, I'm seeing more, more discussion, serious discussions, serious looks than I've seen in a really long time. Like you said, it's the season was a flop. And I think people that have been holding out for that and saying, all right, I'm just gonna buckle down, wait for it to get through. You know, but I think another factor that could be leading to this in some cases is is MA, right? It's been another completely tough season. I've been hearing about more and more MA activity. I've been hearing some significant ones that are in the pipeline that are gonna come out by year end. And so are people moving ahead of thinking that maybe their company is gonna get bought? Um, you know, all of it. I I completely agree with you. I've it's more active than I've seen it in a long time.

SPEAKER_06 36:54

Yeah. I mean, when you've got a market with, especially this, this, this market where we thought we were coming into one thing and now we're in another. And now we've gone through the selling season and people have a pretty good reasonable estimate of what the rest of the year is going to look like with in terms of volume. I wonder how much of this recruiting era that we're in right now is product led versus signing bonus led. So, in other words, when we're not in when we're in a healthy purchase market, but not in a refi, that's a that's a great time to go after a loan officer that that doesn't have a humongous pipeline and they've got a good healthy purchase pipeline. You can kind of get a good understanding of what they're doing in the market. Um, they're they feel less tied down because they don't have 65 refines that are floating or half-locked or whatever. Um, but you know, we're seeing a lot of companies make decisions about their product mix and about how much they want to devote effort to retail versus how much to their direct consumer center and to servicing. And so I wonder if LOs are starting to look at the landscape and wondering all right, who's going to be supporting the channel I'm in with the right product mix going forward?

SPEAKER_11 37:58

Because I really let me answer that. Let me answer that because I'm having the conversations with the people that are leaving, I'm having those conversations with the people that are coming. It's all about the money, it's not about the products at all. For the for the most part, SANS construction to perm, which a few have, and maybe reverse. The majority of these people are just looking for the payday, and the paydays are rich. They're 50 to 100 bips in some instances of the last 12 months production. So you see your pipeline drying drying up, Redder and MMI and Modex and all these other outlets, you know, that they can make you look really pretty. You know what your pipeline looks like today. The recruiter doesn't really know that. They just can look back and say, oh, over the last 12 months, you've closed $42 million. I'm gonna give you $400,000. I mean, there's literally someone that I'm talking to who has done $50 million in the last year, and there's a lender offering this person well over 100 basis points. So in the in the $600,000 range with a three-year callback.

SPEAKER_06 39:00

So but the money's gonna be the money. My question, my question is how much of the the movement is based on just the money, or is it is it is it trying to figure out where is this lender going to be in the next two, three years? What's their product mix look like now? In other words, is it more intentional than just then just the highest?

SPEAKER_11 39:18

I think it's the first point that you brought up. Where is this lender gonna be in two to three years? That's much more germane to the moment than what is their product mix because you know the the the du jour today is non-QM and just about every lender has leaned hard and heavy into that. So if you have that, you're good. Uh but yeah, are is the lender gonna be stable? What's their strategy for you know for lasting? But like I'm looking at people um that have just severe atrophy. I'm I'm talking about people that have just that have historically done 60, 80, 100 million that have just they've had enough. They're selling out now. They're they're like, you know what? I don't care. I'm gonna take this check for three or four hundred grand and and just wait in the bunker until things ease up because Aaron, we're in August now, right? And before you know it, we're gonna be in the cold months of November, December, and January. So it's not, you know, it's it's something we probably do.

SPEAKER_04 40:13

Yeah. Well, you know, and I will tell you the the part of the recruiting conversations that I'm a part of as a COO, as somebody who oversees operations, you know, I'm I'm usually involved in the product type discussions. What does the the product look like here? How do we underwrite it? What is the processing? And I will say that the questions that I've been asked while speaking to recruits have become far more detailed, far more sophisticated, far more follow-ups, right? And and so, you know, I think to Kobe's point, um they are really looking at these things now, whether or not it's the check that ultimately makes the difference. I I think it probably is, but they are going in, being far more intentional about understanding the true workings of the operations of the company, not oh, I'm sure, oh, you guys do conventional loans, it's fine, I'm sure you guys will be good. But like very specific, very detailed questions about product types, about property types, things like that. How do you communicate changes? How can I go look up guidelines, that kind of thing? And so I think you're both right.

SPEAKER_11 41:20

How about that, Kobe?

SPEAKER_06 41:21

I love that we're both right.

SPEAKER_11 41:23

I know that's amazing. I think we should end the show right now. No, we're not doing that. We know we have more to talk about. Uh let's let's talk. Let's talk about this guy and the correspondent dinner 2.0.

SPEAKER_08 41:33

Oh God.

SPEAKER_11 41:35

Shall we?

unknown 41:36

Yes.

SPEAKER_08 41:36

Oh, let's go.

SPEAKER_11 41:39

I'm trying, trust me. Here we go. Let's see what let's see what's going on. I'm trying I'm trying to add this. No, no, no. I'm trying to add this to the stage, but for some reason it's not working. So I'll let I'll let Nayoung play around in the background and tell me when we're ready. But you know, we all know what happened to the first correspondence dinner, right? And so the second one took place on Friday, July 24th. Uh, and the president, he really went on and on and on. He hinted at a third team term, quote, just like my presidency, the second time is always better, and the third time will be better yet. Uh, he did say he was kidding, but we know he's joking he has said this more seriously in the past. Um I'm not sure which one of you wanted to talk about this, but clearly you've got some kind of a pi opinion on it. So who was it? Reveal yourself. Was it me?

SPEAKER_06 42:26

Are you pointing to me?

SPEAKER_11 42:28

Yeah.

unknown 42:28

Yeah.

SPEAKER_06 42:28

Well, first of all, one thing I do want to say um is that and I and I I do want to just give because your your parents weren't at this one, but I remember the first one that your parents did attend, and your dad had played a role in the outgoing White House correspondence uh president. He played a role in her in her career. So I just wanted to give a shout out to your dad for that.

SPEAKER_11 42:48

Oh, I'm not sure she is she outgoing, it's Ouija. Is she leaving? Ouija was the outgoing, yeah.

SPEAKER_06 42:52

Ouija's the outgoing. The the hosting this was kind of yeah. So just want to give a shout out to your dad, and it's a shame that that first one got taken away from him and your mom and you um by extension. So just a shout-out to him for this uh for the role that he played. Sorry he couldn't make it to this one, but um, you know, and maybe it's a good thing that he couldn't make it to this one because you know there was uh an hour and five-minute debacle where the president took the stage, um, was seemingly reacting to his own speech in real time, which he had clearly not read before he got on stage. Someone else wrote it for him. Um, I mean, as as presidents get their speeches written for them, but usually they at least take a glance at them before they get up on a dais and deliver a 65-minute diatribe. Um, and it was uh it was a series of ad hominem attacks on his political opponents, it was a it was attacks on members of the press, it was attacks on political opponents, um, it was one bad joke after another. He had one good line about uh about Bobby Jr., but uh that was probably about it. Um and uh it just it just showed you know a real mean side to a man, you know. At an event that is supposed to be lighthearted. He has skipped every one of these up until this last one because he does not like dealing with the press. Um, and uh, you know, to me.

SPEAKER_11 44:09

He did it for he did it for Ouija, I think. He did it for her.

SPEAKER_06 44:12

Possibly. It was the first one he came to, but you know, to me, it just it just speaks to to his nature, his inability to laugh at himself. I mean, in order to have a good sense of humor and and be funny, you have to have the ability to laugh at yourself. He clearly doesn't have that. Um, so I just thought it said a lot about his character.

SPEAKER_11 44:27

Um, and it was I think that's I think that's a reach, man. It's the correspondence center. Everyone's busting everyone's balls.

SPEAKER_04 44:34

It was just so bad, though. It was so cringe. It was like Biden level cringe. It was so bad.

SPEAKER_11 44:40

It was it was horrible, yeah.

SPEAKER_04 44:41

Yeah.

SPEAKER_11 44:42

No, let's let's I think I think we're ready now. Hold on.

SPEAKER_04 44:44

The Queen got it.

SPEAKER_05 44:46

I do think we need term limits in Congress. I think term limits are very important because I see what's happening. I see what's happening. The other day, a senator I knew got a text of a great guy from his wife, and she said, When you get home, I want to have you immediately come up the stairs and make love to me. And he said, I can't do both. You know what that you know, in other words, you can't go up the stairs and make love. Does anybody get that way? I thought that was actually pretty good. That was actually the only thing I thought was good in this whole freaking stupid speech that they wrote. That was the only thing.

SPEAKER_11 45:26

I mean, that's great. He's fine. Yo, he's he's he's kibbitzing. Leave the guy alone, whatever. He's 80 years old. Yeah, I mean, I would have rather him be in the war room trying to figure out how to end, you know, talk about a debacle. Like that, this shouldn't even hit our radar, man. This war is crazy.

SPEAKER_04 45:44

Well, the line that got me the most is like he loves calling the new Iran leader gay. Like, he loves that so much. He thinks it's like such a sick burn. Like, meanwhile, they're over here like generating these like bangers of Lego videos in Iran, like on the daily, and all we have is like, you are gay. It's like so Homer Simpson.

SPEAKER_11 46:04

What are they doing? They're Legoing. Are they Legoing my ego? What is this?

SPEAKER_06 46:07

They're Lego, they're like they're creating AI videos based on Lego characters to troll the United States, and they're pretty good.

SPEAKER_04 46:14

Marco Rubio, Pete Heggseth, Trump.

SPEAKER_11 46:17

I've not seen any of it. Oh, I will send you some. Send me some. You want to pull one up on your phone and play it for the audience? Go ahead. You can do that.

SPEAKER_06 46:24

Do you have any AI videos on your phone?

SPEAKER_11 46:25

No, that's right.

SPEAKER_04 46:26

I have a few AI videos on my phone. Let me let me pull this up.

SPEAKER_11 46:29

She'll pull it up, Kobe, while you and I, you know, fill some time here, buddy.

SPEAKER_04 46:33

Do you want me to send it to Nathan?

SPEAKER_11 46:34

We can fill some time. Um, no, just hold it up. We'll we'll improvise. This is this is what this show is all about, right? We can't always be scripted. This is what we call a run. It'll be like we'll be like Trump at the correspondence center.

SPEAKER_04 46:44

Ready?

SPEAKER_11 46:45

Yeah, sure.

SPEAKER_07 46:52

Uh-huh. Your country is winning.

SPEAKER_08 47:20

Talk about Epstein. Listen to the crowd.

SPEAKER_06 47:27

Wow. By the way, that was actually the original No Surrender theme song.

SPEAKER_11 47:32

It was man, they completely trolled him there. I I tell you what I'd like to say.

SPEAKER_06 47:39

I was like, do we really need nine Epsteins at the end of it? And uh, and then we decided to start something else.

SPEAKER_04 47:44

Then we just went with a instead.

SPEAKER_11 47:47

Are we running out of munitions? Is that true?

SPEAKER_04 47:50

Yes.

SPEAKER_11 47:51

What does that even mean? Like I hear that and I'm like, well, does that mean we have enough to go for six more months a year? Can we buy some from someone else? What is going on?

SPEAKER_04 48:01

I I mean, I'm sure Kobe, you know, I'm not sure Kobe has to say, but everything I said, one is we've given so much to Ukraine, we were already depleted. And we like even at the beginning of the war, people were warning that we were running low on bombs, interceptors, interceptors, especially. And so, really, that's kind of why we've stopped the most recent bombing campaign, is because we were running very, very low on our stock. You know, our we can only produce so many, and we're not keeping up.

SPEAKER_06 48:29

Yeah, the uh apparently the the next phase of the battle is gonna include toilet paper and water balloons. And uh it's gonna be and we'll see how that's gonna create a run on toilet paper again.

SPEAKER_04 48:43

Now you're bringing me back your battery.

SPEAKER_06 48:44

He's going to he's going to TP one of their bridges if they don't they don't sign the number of.

SPEAKER_04 48:50

He's gonna use all the TP to soak up all their desalinated water.

SPEAKER_11 48:53

I mean, it's it's better to laugh than to cry, but I'll tell you what, I'm closer to crying than I am laughing at this right now. This is not this is not a laughing matter, man. It is very, very serious, and it's so unnecessary, and it is terrible for our country and terrible for our industry. It's just bad in so many ways, man. And we were just we were just at the tip of turning the corner. Just the tip.

SPEAKER_04 49:20

Why do you do this to me?

SPEAKER_11 49:23

I don't know. I don't know.

SPEAKER_04 49:24

I just can't you know how I feel about just the tip.

SPEAKER_11 49:26

I I just keep going back to the same holes. I don't know. It's just I can't I just dig myself in the hole, and there you are. This is what we do. This is what we do. You just can't pull out. I can't. I just keep going right back there. It's unbelievable. I I can't, yeah. I'm just I don't know what to say. Um I mean, I do know what to say, and it's it feels so powerless. It's just crazy what what's going on. I mean, this has gone on too long, too far. Say what you have to say, get out of there, man.

SPEAKER_04 49:55

Like correct. Well, that's the thing is like there's who's the adult in the room. It's not Pete Heggseth, right? For sure.

SPEAKER_11 50:02

I think it's I think it's JD Vance.

SPEAKER_04 50:06

When he's in the room or when he's when he's actually Yeah, well, I'm not I think Rubio's you know in front of him.

SPEAKER_06 50:10

It's just I'm I'm not sure. I'm not sure Vance has a real seat at the table with this because Vance has has has come out in a couple of different kind of hinted ways because Vance has his own ambitions politically. So Vance has kind of signaled that he's not for this war, he's not for this action, that he might have handled it a little bit differently. Um so I'm not sure Vance is uh is being listened to at the moment. I'm not sure who's being listened to, but I can tell you one thing. We've got an election coming up in November. The MAGA tide is turning in terms of their approval rating. Americans have signaled that they don't want this war to continue. Um, you know, I I I know Paul Heinman today, um, or yesterday afternoon sent me a message about how um if Warsh continues on the path that he's on, he's gonna get a spanking from the president. And my response to him was the president's got bigger fish to fry. He's got a midterm coming up with a very unpopular war happening that he never wanted to get into in the first place. So I think that the adult in the room is whatever date that election is, November 5th, November 6th. That's the adult in the room.

SPEAKER_11 51:08

So we're the adult in the room. You're saying we can change the American people.

SPEAKER_06 51:12

The American people are the adult in the room.

SPEAKER_11 51:13

Yeah, but what can what can we do? Like the house gets I got it. Great. So the house ends up being blue, cool. What happens then?

SPEAKER_04 51:21

I I I think well gridlock, Greg look, gridlock.

SPEAKER_06 51:24

And yeah, some some gridlock happens, but I think I think Trump, you know, ultimately has yeah, well, maybe, but I think how does any of that help?

SPEAKER_11 51:31

How does any of that help the economy in our business?

SPEAKER_06 51:35

I if if if we vote out the people that didn't stop Trump from the war, you know, I I I think the pressure is on him. He does have a responsibility. He is not only the president of the United States, he's also the leader of the Republican Party. And there is a responsibility for him to see Republicans get elected. He is out there campaigning for them. And if we know one thing about Donald Trump, it's that he takes his pride and his reputation very seriously. And I think he's gonna want to keep those intact. He also enjoys the role of being a kingmaker, so I think he's gonna want to have a say in how the 2028 elections go and beyond. And in order for him to do that, he has to keep his credibility with his own people. And if he can't deliver elections to his own people, that's gonna take away a lot of his power and and and all of the the Trump aura that goes along with it. So I think he's got a vested interest in keeping the members of his party happy, and that will hopefully translate.

SPEAKER_04 52:22

Well, he has got to get us out of this before November. If we're still dealing with this back and forth on off volatility in November, like it's bad now. Think about what it's gonna be like then, right? And so, like, we need to be sending messages to our current elected officials that this is not okay, that this is absolutely gotta stop. Um, and and we just we can't keep supporting that. And I don't it the problem is that Trump is so absolutely volatile himself. He he believes one thing and then another thing, and who knows what he actually believes. Like I I have a hard time seeing any sort of path out of this.

SPEAKER_11 52:56

Yeah, well, I could tell you when when the money starts to dissipate, when when the stock market goes down 1200 points in a day, I think that catches his attention. He likes to be the president that everyone gets rich with. And uh if his if if his pocket gets hurt, if you know everyone else's pockets get hurt, I think that is that that would uh stop him in his tracks more than even a soldier's death.

SPEAKER_04 53:24

Oh, a thousand percent. As sad as that sounds they reduced they reduced the death toll. Those those four soldiers who died in uh in Jordan last week, they they pushed the death count up to 18. On Friday or something, they actually brought the death toll back down to 14 and said they didn't count because they died after the MOU. He doesn't care.

SPEAKER_11 53:48

That's wild. I mean, but the Democratic Party, like the progressive, there's some real freaks that are showing up now. Are they just gonna are they gonna dilute the party? Like if you're if you're hoping that Democrats just take over, Kobe. Uh you know, if you've got two different factions set up, you know, under one party, how is that good? I'm curious I've been wanting to ask you this off, you know, in our conversations, but we haven't talked that much lately. So can you give me an opinion on that?

SPEAKER_06 54:15

Well, first of all, I'm sorry we haven't talked that much lately. We'll have to read.

SPEAKER_11 54:20

You've been moving, you've been very busy. You've got a new life in in Nevada now.

SPEAKER_06 54:23

But I'm good with that. You guys are you are are you asking, are you asking if if having uh are you talking about the House and the Senate being divided? What's the No?

SPEAKER_11 54:32

I'm just talking about the uh I'm just talking about the Democrats hope to take over the White House.

SPEAKER_06 54:37

Yeah.

SPEAKER_11 54:38

What what's the Cortez? Like she's the leader now. I don't even know. Mondami, I don't know what's going on here. Um it seems like the party is being uh infiltrated right now by people that are not a hundred percent democratic like. So that seems to me like you're it's almost like having a it's almost like having an indep independent in the Democratic Party, you know, a wave of them, and that's gonna dilute the votes and it's gonna play in the favor of the Republicans. That's what I'm that's what I think. I'm I'm a novice much more than you, but tell me if I'm if if I'm somewhere near the mark.

SPEAKER_06 55:11

Yeah, potentially. I mean, look, you know, we we uh we've seen a swinging of the pendulum and to the point where New York City recently elected an overtly socialist mayor, and and I've been doing some posts, the post that Aaron uh was commenting on yesterday around the grocery store idea. And before that, I was talking about his peditaire tax on the 1,500 units that were valued at more than $5 million. And and we're seeing uh fringe candidates emerge in Michigan. Uh, we've had fringe candidates in the Northeast as well. This is what happens when you have fringe politicians, they they emerge on both sides and they outflank each other in primaries. And this is why we've come to where we've come to today, where we no longer have the Ted Kennedy and the uh and the John McCain's who are across the aisle yet are still friends and can introduce legislation together. We are so polarized as a nation right now that it's hard to envision who can lead us and who can unite us. And when when the real elections are happening in the primaries and not in the general election, and it's just a matter of you know who's doing a good job of outflanking somebody from the right or from the left, we're left with a very divided house, a very divided Senate, and and a president that doesn't seem to find any reason to unite the people that voted for him, whether they came out on election day for him or not. Um, and it's a really sad state of affairs where we are in this country right now. So, do I want um a blue wave? Not necessarily. I want sane politicians back. I want the people that can actually reach across the aisle and work together and accomplish things. I don't think we're anywhere near that today. So I I don't consider myself a Democrat any more than I consider myself a Republican. I consider myself just to be an independent right now who's looking for some sanity.

SPEAKER_04 56:50

Well, I think that that the big wild card coming into this election is going to be people like me, right? I'm a I'm a libertarian. Um I have voted Republican most of my life. I've never pulled the the handle for a Democrat. But Trump came into power this time with a lot of people like me. He built a coalition who were anti-war, who are pro-Doge, all of that. And he's completely abandoned all of us and gone in the complete opposite direction of everything he said. But I'm not gonna turn around and go vote Democrat now. Absolutely not. I'm going to sit out, right? And so to me, I think the turnout is going to be the big story of this election because that Trump is gonna have people that he thinks are Republicans that are not, but we're also not going Democrat. We're just gonna be like, we're just frustrated and we're done with it, and we feel like we don't have any representation. And so to me, this is gonna be all about the bases that come out.

SPEAKER_06 57:43

Yeah, I think even the hardcore MAGA voters are starting to crack and feel like they don't have the guy that they wanted in the in the White House because this is not the agenda they voted for, to Aaron's point. So um, you know, we're in a bad place. We're in a bad place with the Iran war, we're in even worse place with our elected officials.

SPEAKER_11 57:59

Well, uh, let's get you two look so handsome. Let's get rude for a minute, can we, Aaron? Do you mind if we get rude? I would love to get only if you're talking about Tim Rude. Of course. Who else?

SPEAKER_06 58:13

I don't know.

SPEAKER_11 58:13

We love Tim Rude. Our inside the our inside the beltway Fots. So far inside. He's so far inside the beltway. Aaron, are you gonna take us through some kind of an exercise right now? Or are we have we taken up too much time? Uh let's first just talk about you know Tim's uh his his daily uh newsletter, which I know we're all addicted to.

SPEAKER_04 58:34

Uh yes. So, you know, I I was thinking about a little little game called Raw Dogging the Daily Dose, um, where we just pick some random stories from Tim's uh column or Tim's posts. Every day he posts his Daily Dose, which is really just like a great compilation of all of the stories that have gone on in any given day. Um, you can see what's going on in the mortgage market, in the political landscape, what's going on in the commercial markets. And so um, you know, Greg, you tell me we're kind of at time on our recording, but I am I am happy to to pull out a couple stories and we can we can jawbone for a couple minutes if we want.

SPEAKER_11 59:16

Uh we can raw dog jawbone. I'm a good raw dog jawbone. No, no problem.

SPEAKER_04 59:24

All right. Um, all right. So uh let's see. Give me just two seconds to pull this up.

SPEAKER_11 59:35

What's that noise in the background? Does someone have like a child or a dog in their place?

SPEAKER_06 59:39

I I'm I'm pretty sure that's my kid who's uh on the other side of the house. So can't wait for school to start August 10th. Very exciting.

SPEAKER_04 59:49

Not that you're gonna go.

SPEAKER_06 59:49

Well, it's so early. August 10th? August 10th, yeah. When did they get it? Believe me, it's not early enough.

SPEAKER_04 59:56

Wasn't she only been back from camp for a week?

SPEAKER_06 59:59

Yeah, it's time. It's time to go to school. Wow.

SPEAKER_04 1:00:04

Dang. Twitter to get a job, open a lemonade stands.

SPEAKER_11 1:00:08

Do you guys know Lindsay Meyer? Yeah. She announced today that she's leaving the mortgage business or yesterday. See, now I fell for it too. Lindsay Meyer. What'd you fell for? I fell for the today yesterday thing.

SPEAKER_06 1:00:23

Oh, oh, oh.

SPEAKER_11 1:00:24

Why is she leaving the mortgage business? Uh she's doing business development now at barrel uh maker printing. So she's a she's a visionary and a great marketer and brand person. So we wish Lindsay well. I just wanted to squeeze that in. Yeah, Chicago gal. Yep.

SPEAKER_04 1:00:40

Best wishes.

SPEAKER_11 1:00:41

I wanted to squeeze that in while we raw dog jawbone.

SPEAKER_04 1:00:45

Uh all right. Well, let's let's get it in. Let's get it in.

SPEAKER_11 1:00:48

Aaron, have you found what you're looking for?

SPEAKER_04 1:00:50

I have found well, in terms of topics, yes, I have. Yes, everything else. I'm like, I'm like you two. I'm still I still haven't found what I'm looking for. Yeah.

SPEAKER_11 1:00:59

You you and you and you too.

SPEAKER_04 1:01:01

Correct, exactly. Great show with the peer, by the way. Uh, so FHA came out with their new uh partial claim. This may seem like some boring um administrative type deal, but there they uh in uh Tuesday's episode of Daily Dose, Tim talks about the new FHA um proposal to basically eliminate partial claims as a second lien. Why this is important, I think personally, for FHA lending is because right now, second um partial claims go on as a second lien. Um, and there are implications on that where you can't you have to do a judicial foreclosure, which doesn't work in judicial states. This makes um foreclosing on FHA loans much harder and much more complicated and much more expensive. And this is going to make servicing FHA loans much better. So I applaud the FHA in making this recommendation. I believe they have a comment period open, and so I I think that's a something as an industry we need to go and and and support.

SPEAKER_11 1:02:03

I'll take your word for it, Kobe. This is going well so far.

unknown 1:02:09

Good.

SPEAKER_11 1:02:10

I vote I vote yes. Next. Can you can you pick something a little more difficult, obscure, please?

SPEAKER_04 1:02:17

Okay. Okay, here's one for Kobe. Here's one for Kobe from yesterday's from yesterday's. The country built more housing than people last year. Last year the housing stock grew by 1.5 million units, enough to house 3.47 million people, but population growth was just 757,000. Kobe, your thoughts.

SPEAKER_06 1:02:35

Um, I mean, population growth in terms of what new births and immigration is that is that the tally?

SPEAKER_04 1:02:40

Just net new population. Yes, yes, correct.

SPEAKER_06 1:02:42

Yeah. Okay. Well, I mean, we have a we have a shortage that's that's that's there today. Not I'm not really worried about the people born today that according to your numbers are not gonna be ready to buy a home until at least they're 32. So um I I think that those are a conflation of two numbers that aren't necessarily relevant to one another. We know the shortage that we have today versus the home buying population that's out there in certain markets, of course. So to me, like those are you know, those are just two numbers thrown together to create a story.

SPEAKER_11 1:03:10

We don't have a shortage, slow it down, man. Stop the printing presses. We don't need more homes, we need better policy.

SPEAKER_04 1:03:19

There you go. Yeah, anyway.

SPEAKER_11 1:03:22

Yeah, those were a lot of issues. This was great. This was great. I love this debut. We're going to now retire it. We will never do this again. Um, and we're also gonna look for the to be fair.

SPEAKER_04 1:03:32

When I proposed this, it was Greg's gonna pick some topics out of a jar.

SPEAKER_11 1:03:35

So I don't remember, I don't remember that.

SPEAKER_06 1:03:37

Well, he's busy, I've been moving. Um, but I I do want to say, Aaron, that you look lovely today. I love the idea. I've noticed that too.

SPEAKER_11 1:03:44

You're having it this is the best your hair has ever looked.

SPEAKER_04 1:03:47

I got I I made it darker on Monday. So thank you. I appreciate it.

SPEAKER_11 1:03:50

Yeah, it looks phenomenal. Well, you have a new you have a new uh hairstylist, obviously. You're new you're new to Carolina.

SPEAKER_04 1:03:56

Yeah, I have a new girl here. She she did it a couple weeks ago, and yesterday I went back, or not yesterday, Monday I went back to to get it done, and I uh was like, go darker. And I'm very pleased with the product. So thank you for noticing. You guys are you guys are real gems, and I think you're both looking super handsome today.

SPEAKER_11 1:04:11

Well, thank you very much. The you know what's interesting about me is the further I go away, the better I look. Watch.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:17

How good?

SPEAKER_11 1:04:18

Look at that.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:19

Not true.

SPEAKER_11 1:04:20

How good I look. Have I ever looked this good?

SPEAKER_04 1:04:22

Is your fly down?

SPEAKER_11 1:04:24

No, I'm wearing sweatpants. I don't have a fly. What are you talking about? Sweat flies? I'm a fly guy. Did I just did I just did I just flash some belly? You did. You gave us a nail.

SPEAKER_04 1:04:38

So first ever.

SPEAKER_11 1:04:40

Did I just show you my one pack?

SPEAKER_04 1:04:45

Excuse me. I'm gonna I'm gonna need to be alone for a minute.

SPEAKER_11 1:04:48

She's gonna go to her barf bag. She wishes she was on a plane. She wishes she was on a plane. Yeah, she wishes she was on a plane so she could just reach for that bag and just stick her plates right in and barf.

SPEAKER_04 1:05:01

I love you guys.

SPEAKER_11 1:05:03

All right, well, this was great. Uh, not sure if it's Wednesday or Thursday, but what the hell? This was uh 12th edition of No Surrender. We're in the bag, we're all wearing black. We'll see what happens next week on No Surrender. So long.

SPEAKER_07 1:05:17

No surrender on the toe. We go to the toe. What fail, what fails? Who gets the hole? Hot no, hot takes, raises takes.