IPO Winners & Losers: Cerebras, SpaceX, and the AI Takeover

Welcome back to Renaissance Capital’s IPO Winners and Losers — the weekly podcast breaking down the biggest stories shaping the IPO market, new stocks, and Wall Street sentiment.

This week:
• 2026 IPO proceeds jump from $18 billion to $28 billion in one week
• Cerebras prices the largest AI IPO ever — then faces an immediate test in the aftermarket
• The IPO market rewards “lottery ticket” growth stories while defensive deals struggle
• SpaceX is poised to be the first mega IPO, with a potential filing on deck for next week
• Anthropic’s reported $900 billion valuation shows private AI valuations are still climbing
• Energy infrastructure and AI-linked names keep winning, while consumer stocks remain under pressure

We also discuss why this IPO window is moving fast but remains fragile, how macro risks are still hanging over the market, and why issuers may be rushing to raise capital while investor appetite is open.

If you follow IPOs, AI infrastructure, market psychology, or disruptive growth companies, this is the place to stay ahead of the next wave of public market stories.

Get the newsletter in your inbox every week: ipos.renaissancecapital.com/l/1104911/2025-11-04/7p1rtn

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:01

This week's winner, AI chipmakers, and anyone swinging for the fences. This week's loser, anything defensive, slow growth, or priced for prudence.

SPEAKER_00 0:10

And with SpaceX potentially filing next week, and Thropic now at a$900 billion valuation, the Mega IPO era is no longer hypothetical. Let's get into it in this week's winners and losers.

SPEAKER_01 0:25

Quick note before we dive in. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and one cannot invest directly in an index. For the full disclosure, check the end of this recording. So let's rock through the week because it's hard to overstate how much shifted in just five trading days. 2026 IBO proceeds went from 18 billion to 28 billion in one week. That's a 55% jump, and most of it came from Cerebrus'$5.6 billion deal.

SPEAKER_00 0:58

Right. And Cerebrus wasn't the only AI play on the field either. Three billion dollar deals this week with an AI angle. This feels like a turning point. AI has long dominated the venture capital landscape, but this week AI became the dominant force in the IPO market.

SPEAKER_01 1:15

But there's more, there's more going on here than that. And I think the newsletter's three takeaways really set the right tone. Yes, Cerebrus crushed it. And uh we're also looking at an imminent filing from SpaceX, but the Iran war is still hanging over everything.

SPEAKER_00 1:30

Right. That macro head uh overhang really hasn't gone away. Investors want quick ups upside, or they're not going to participate. That's a very specific risk posture. And there's a sense that a bad headline on Iran or trade or inflation could still upend the Apple card here.

SPEAKER_01 1:46

That's just a quick detour, though, because we do have to start with Cerebrus. This deal reset the bar.$5.6 billion raised,$55 billion market cap. That means it's the largest AI IPO ever, the largest US tech IPO since Uber in 2019. That's a lot of stats, but it is a big deal.

SPEAKER_00 2:04

Yeah, and the pricing dynamics were wild. It priced$60 above the range at$185, closed the first day at$3.11. That's a 68% pop. Biggest first day pop for a$5 billion IPO since 2000. And then it gave 10% back on day two.

SPEAKER_01 2:23

Yeah, that day two pullback is the part to pay attention to, in my opinion. The pop was real, but so was that immediate skepticism.

SPEAKER_00 2:30

I think the valuation is the issue. Um, it was trading at more than 100 times forward sales. So price to perfection is probably the right phrase here.

SPEAKER_01 2:41

Mm-hmm. The bull case, dethroning NVIDIA and some of the workloads, is generally compelling, though. That's a$5 trillion competitor. But the reality is getting to that scale is going to be enormously difficult. And let's not forget the long string of near-term lockup releases on the horizon.

SPEAKER_00 2:58

Right. The bull case isn't crazy. Uh, Strubris has the technology. It's got real customers, and OpenAI's$20 billion order from last week is a meaningful anchor. But uh at these levels, you're really paying for execution. It hasn't happened yet.

SPEAKER_01 3:12

Yeah, again, pointing to that old chestnut price to perfection. Any stumble, supply chain, customer concentration, lockup dynamics, and the multipole could compress fast. And this ties into a bigger theme because Cerebras wasn't the only big swing this week. We had geothermal energy developer fervo up more than 50% by the end of the week. No revenue came to market at a nearly$9 billion market cap, but investors said yes.

SPEAKER_00 3:39

Right. And the the winners and losers newsletter calls us out directly. The IPO market has always had lottery tickets, but rarely have so many received such large valuations. Uh, in addition to Cerebrus and Fervo, there was X Energy the week before, uh, Beta Technologies last year, and now we've got quantum computer developer continuum in the pipeline.

SPEAKER_01 4:01

That's a pattern, not a coincidence. The market has decided that swinging big is the right play right now. Growth is definitely back in style.

SPEAKER_00 4:09

And I think the flip side proves the point. Uh so GMR Solutions, KKR-backed emergency medical services provider, that company slashed the price by over 30% this week, and it still dropped 10% on its debut. Uh I think investors saw that slow growth, that huge leverage, and they shrugged their shoulders.

SPEAKER_01 4:29

That's not to say that a company must bring a moonshot or stay home. We're still getting filings in oil and gas, defense, and profitable but profitable businesses with AI tailwinds. Slow and steady has been a staple in the past few years as markets recovered, but some of the largest IPOs now are the moonshots.

SPEAKER_00 4:46

Which is a weird market dynamic. Usually you'd expect defensive plays to outperform during this period of macro uncertainty. Uh, instead, we're seeing the opposite.

SPEAKER_01 4:55

Because the macro uncertainty is itself driving the FOMO. Uh, investors think the window could close. So they're reaching for asymmetric upside rather than safety. And speaking of big swings, it looks like the mega IPO calendar is about to get more interesting. Reports this week signaled that SpaceX could flip its S1 as soon as next week. So a June listing is still the target, apparently. Um, the Cerebrus success almost certainly accelerates that timeline.

SPEAKER_00 5:20

Yeah, I think that's the read. If you're SpaceX and you're watching Cerebrus pop 68% on day one,$5 billion IPO, you're not waiting. You're moving forward.

SPEAKER_01 5:29

Yeah, and Enthropic raising$30 billion at a$900 billion valuation. That means it surpasses OpenAI as the world's most valuable startup.

SPEAKER_00 5:39

Right. Not an IPO yet, but a signal. AI private valuations are still rising incredibly fast, which keeps the pressure on every AI IPO to come public at premium multiples.

SPEAKER_01 5:50

It also raises the question of whether Entropic is the next Omega IPO after SpaceX. I think even more so after reports a few weeks ago about internal disagreements at OpenAI. But safe to say, if private rounds keep clearing these valuations, going public eventually becomes inevitable.

SPEAKER_00 6:07

Yeah, I think there is some questions this year about, you know, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI. Is this going to be the year where all three of those mega IPOs go public? Now it looks like, you know, maybe there's less certainty. SpaceX, at least we know, is going public, or we suspect is going public this summer. Um and the more that these names get talked about, the more attention flows into the entire IPO market. Uh that's a real second-order effect here. Uh by the way, Avery, I gotta say, I am a bit disappointed in Anthropic. It's a public benefit company. I wish they would benefit the public and go public, even at that$900 billion valuation, instead of staying private so long, longer so that they can go public eventually at, I don't know, a one trillion plus valuation. You know, so many individual investors, they want to own these names, but uh we can't access them. They're staying private.

SPEAKER_01 6:57

Mm-hmm. Yeah, I guess uh beating it, beating OpenAI isn't enough right now. They uh they they need to reach that one trillion dollar mark. Um, but in the near term at least, things should slow down for a bit. Um, not much going on over the next two weeks. Companies are turning in Q and financials, and we have Memorial Day around the corner. So definitely not a sign of weakness to see this slow down. It's really just seasonal.

SPEAKER_00 7:20

Yeah, and uh Lincoln International is the one notable deal on the calendar. Investment bank raising$400 million midweek.

SPEAKER_01 7:28

Interesting deal to slot in here. Financial services IPO during a quiet stress stretch. Um, it'll definitely be a test of whether non-AI, non-defense deals can still find demand.

SPEAKER_00 7:39

Yeah, or it'll just price quietly and move on. Sometimes a quiet calendar is just a quiet calendar. But uh Linkin is active in private markets, so it does have some tailwinds from that business at least.

SPEAKER_01 7:52

Yeah, that's a good insight. Um, and on the scoreboard for existing new stocks was another mixed week. IPO index was down 0.8%, SP barely positive at 0.1%. So IPO index unperforming again.

SPEAKER_00 8:05

Yeah, but the winners uh list reinforces the theme, energy and AI infrastructure. So the winner, venture global LNG exporter up 24% this week.

SPEAKER_01 8:16

Yeah, that's interesting because I guess you could argue it's both an energy play and it may be an AI play. Data centers need power. Natural gas is increasingly the bridge fuel for that demand. Um, just look at the recent filing from INEO, which does natural gas engines.

SPEAKER_00 8:29

Right, that's a good point. Uh, and then on the loser side, we had Birkenstock down 20% on an earnings miss. Uh consumer brand slowing growth, same story we've seen all month.

SPEAKER_01 8:40

Yeah, the consumer sector keeps getting punished, whether it's suja or Birkenstock, seems like anything with a thematic tailwind is really struggling in this market. So zooming out, what is this market actually telling us? AI just became the dominant force in the IPO market, not a contributor, the dominant force. And that's a real shift from where we've been.

SPEAKER_00 9:01

Yeah, and it's pulling everything into its orbit. Chips, power, infrastructure, real estate, the call it thematic gravity is enormous.

SPEAKER_01 9:10

Yeah, and the risk that price to perfection applies to more than just Cerebrus. Uh, a lot of these deals are pricing on the assumption that AI demand continues uninterrupted at current scale.

SPEAKER_00 9:20

And the Iran overhang has not gone away. Uh the whole rally here is happening despite sort of an unresolved geopolitical situation. Uh, that's a bit fragile by definition.

SPEAKER_01 9:31

But if you seem to be reading it correctly, move price or move fast, price big, raise while you can. Memorial day to labor day could be a very active stretch for the IPO market.

SPEAKER_00 9:42

Especially, I mean, hey, if SpaceX files next week, that becomes the next chapter. And honestly, that might overshadow everything else.

SPEAKER_01 9:50

Yeah, so what are we watching as we head into the next week? Uh, number one, SpaceX. Uh the S1 can land any day at this point, so that's the real headline event.

SPEAKER_00 10:01

Right. Uh hearing potentially Friday, that would tee it up for that launch on the week of June 8th, as we've heard. Uh and then besides that, Cerebrus aftermarket trading. Uh, does that day two pullback continue or does it stabilize from here? That tells us how much of the pop is real conviction versus FOMO.

SPEAKER_01 10:19

Mm-hmm. And then we have the Lincoln International Pricing, the loan deal next week, um, and an interesting test of non-AI demand.

SPEAKER_00 10:26

So big week ahead of us, a bigger ones likely ahead, just not immediately ahead. Unless SpaceX files, then I guess it'll count as a big week. Every week will be a big week until the until it prices then.

SPEAKER_01 10:38

Yeah, absolutely. So that's it for this week's winners and losers. Skip the full newsletter in your inbox by clicking the link in the description. Thanks for listening. And before we go, please listen carefully to our full disclosure. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Renaissance Capital statements should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Certain of the statements contained maybe statements of future expectations and other forward looking statements that are based on Renaissance Capitals, current views and assumptions, and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Past performance does not guarantee future results. One cannot invest directly in an index.