Flipping the Script on Hezbollah: Inside the Lebanon-Israel Peace Breakthrough

A trilateral framework agreement signed by the US, Lebanon, and Israel has done something that seemed unthinkable just a few years ago — and it's put Hezbollah on its back foot. For decades, the group justified its weapons as the only way to push Israel out of Lebanon. This deal flips that logic entirely: it's Hezbollah's disarmament that will restore Lebanese sovereignty and end the occupation.

Jay Solomon and Hagar Chemali are joined by Marwan El Amine — a Lebanese Shia oppositionist, activist, and columnist for This Is Beirut and Nida Al Watan — who has faced repeated threats from Hezbollah for consistently calling out its corruption and violence.

They discuss why Lebanon has become the linchpin in countering Iranian influence across the region, how the Shia community is responding to the prospect of peace, why Hezbollah's real threat isn't Israel but Lebanese sovereignty itself, and what the US and international community must do to undermine the group permanently — starting, as Marwan puts it, with the head of the snake in Tehran.

Find Marwan El Amine's work in This Is Beirut and Nida Al Watan, where he works to give voice to Lebanon's silent Shia majority.

Have a question or tip for the show? Reach us at thethreatpod@gwu.edu

Transcript

SPEAKER_03 0:00

I'm Jay Solomon. And I'm Hogar Shimaly. And welcome to the Threat Podcast. Every week we'll analyze and discuss the most pressing yet not always so visible threats to global security and the movements and ideologies that fuel extremism and terrorism.

SPEAKER_02 0:18

We'll take listeners to the front lines of these battles, both at home and abroad, and we'll talk with the key players in law enforcement, intelligence, diplomacy, and academia who are working to counter these threats. Welcome to the Threat Podcast. I'm Hagar Shamali.

SPEAKER_03 0:37

And I'm Jay Solomon.

SPEAKER_02 0:39

Last week, the United States, Lebanon, and Israel signed a trilateral framework agreement that provides the blueprint for a peace agreement between the two countries, which would have seemed inconceivable just a few years ago. Though a number of principles still need to be nailed down. The aspect of this development that we want to discuss is what this agreement means in the face of the Iranian regime that has been actively using Lebanon as a bargaining chip to advance its goals. But not just because of what it means in Lebanon, but what this development and its outpouring of support afterward means regarding the threats posed by Iranian proxies and their supporters globally. As Jay knows, outside of the threat pod, I work on advocating for and supporting Lebanon-Israel peace efforts. And he has heard me talk about how big a win last week was, mainly because we successfully wrangled this track away from the Iranian regime and proved it's a process worth continuing. But truthfully, I've been so consumed in this Lebanon-Israel world that I hadn't really thought about how this latest step could help staunch the spread of extremism internationally. Jay, you're the one who came up with that. How did you get to that idea?

SPEAKER_03 1:49

You just get this feeling with the war in Iran that the Iranians were sort of coming out on top, uh, you know, because the re the war has not gone the way a lot of people hoped. And the sense that the reini the Iranians were gonna be able to kind of rebuild and gain control of the strait, but then this Lebanon deal suddenly came out, brokered by the US, and it's like, wow, you know, if if Hezbollah can be defeated in in Lebanon and Iran pushed back in the Levant, that the sentiment that the Iranians were sort of back on their foot is gonna get broken. So it just came at a really interesting time. I think people kind of I know I kind of forgot that these peace talks were still going, even though you were in on them. But it's yeah, it's it's an interesting development because it could kind of upset this idea that the Iranians were sort of coming out on top after, you know, almost a year of on and off war.

SPEAKER_02 2:42

Well, I'll tell you, I didn't forget because we had to work really hard to save this process. But you're right, I've noticed that there's this kind of it almost feels number one that Lebanon is becoming the linchpin of this whole thing. Just how it's interesting because I've worked on Lebanon for a very long time. And when I was in government and and and on the outside afterward, and you're always struggling to put Lebanon at the top of the priority list. It always gets pushed aside for competing interests, and it's so interesting to me because it's actually this process has really proven that it is quite central to this conflict. And almost, I know, you know, for lack of a better term, like the fight between good and bad. And I know that sounds crazy, but we have a really cool guest on with us today to break this down further. I'm gonna apologize in my advan in advance because I've lost my voice a little bit, though I have been told that when talking about scary news, that when I have my raspy voice, it uh makes it all seem smoother and calmer. So I hope you feel the same way since what we're gonna talk about is a little bit or scarier. Um, I can take it either way. Um, I want to introduce my friend and Lebanese Shia oppositionist and activist, Marwan El Amin. Marwan has been the face of bravery in Lebanon, truly. He's been criticizing and calling out Hezbollah consistently for its every corrupt and violent move. Marwan is currently a columnist for the Lebanese outlet, this is Beirut, and Nida Al-Watan, and a frequent political commentator on Lebanese and Arab television. And his words, by the way, are not without risks. He has faced and continues to face numerous threats from Hezbollah. Marwan, welcome.

SPEAKER_01 4:23

Hello, hello, Hagar, and hello Jay.

SPEAKER_02 4:26

We're so happy to have you here, Marwan. Thank you for taking the time. Before we dive into the substance of today, I was wondering if you wouldn't mind briefly sharing your story and how you came to become an activist. You are originally from Nabatieh, for example, which is kind of the heart of Hezbollah land in the south of Lebanon. So tell us, have you always felt the way you do? Have you always been so outspoken?

SPEAKER_01 4:49

Uh yeah, in fact, I'm uh from a village. Uh the name is or town, the name is Kafar Roman, just next to Nabatiji in the south of Lebanon. My town used to be known as a place for uh entertainment, uh, for culture, uh, festivals, uh, for uh artistic and uh political uh diversities, and that it was before Hezbollah became as powerful as he is it is now. I I saw that from my uh younger age, from uh the beginning of my political awareness, that uh as powerful Hezbollah became in my area, the more uh political, uh uh artistic culture, cultural festival disappear, and the more religion and uh ideological uh activity become the one and the only one in the town. Uh and that was used by Hezbollah to uh indoctrine the people and control the younger uh ages. Uh for that I was rejecting uh I was uh this this situation, and uh especially that uh what Hezbollah is entered to uh my society uh is not reflecting the historical uh of the Shia in Lebanon on the level of culture, on the level of uh uh diversity, of free of uh expression, freedom of expression. Uh all of that it was disappeared with the Hezbollah, and now as you know, that all the south and all the south of Lebanon and all the Shia community are uh controlled by uh by Hezbollah, and there is no place for the freedom of uh expression, there is no place for uh uh diversity, and uh that's uh why I raise my voice against this uh situation.

SPEAKER_03 7:01

How how is the Shia community in Lebanon responding to this peace agreement? This, you know, the the talks, because I think most people in the US don't really hear much from the Shia community in Lebanon, or they just think everyone supports Hezbollah. The media here doesn't really cover it. But how how do you see the Lebanese, the Shia community, you know, seeing the potential for peace between Israel and Lebanon and potentially an end to this constant fighting that's been going on for years?

SPEAKER_01 7:34

The last war impacts uh profound uh Shia community, and now the question uh that it's repeated uh between uh the Shia community is that uh uh why we are still uh in war, why we will retain the arm and all the doctrine of uh Hasballah and all the uh the story that uh Hasbollah and Asrallah gave to the Shia during uh uh years uh now is destroyed because the idea of uh deter uh Israel is not real. Israel is now uh about to reach Navaratiji and also is occupying uh around 600 uh square meters uh of uh South Lebanon is uh this territory are uh is under under Israelian uh Israeli control. So all this uh this image uh now is uh destroyed. Uh but uh is that enough for the Shia to leave Hasballah and become and express their opinion on high voice and on a political way against Hezbollah? Till now no, but there is reasons for uh for that because till now the power on the Shia land and Shia town and villages and city are still under the control of Hezbollah, and the state and the institution of the state, especially the military and the security institutions, are still uh weak in the Shia uh areas that don't give a uh a safe place for the Shia to express their opinion and also uh don't uh doesn't give the possibility for the uh other option, other uh uh the alternative political alternative to work in the Shia uh area because I speak about myself. I cannot go to my village, I cannot go at all because uh I cannot make any activity, political activity in uh Nabatiya area or in my town, I'm threatened, my life is uh my life, the life of my family, threatened by Hezbollah. So uh because um of that, the possibility of individuals that leave the group, the Hezbollah, and express their opinion alone, that's possible. But when you speak about the uh Damas, the mass it's impossible to leave a group into a vacuum. It needs an alternative, and the alternative, the accurate alternative or the real alternative is not uh it's impossible uh before the uh security and military institution of the state take its responsibility and prepare a safe uh place, safe area, safe environment for political activity in the Shia area.

SPEAKER_02 11:01

Well, I I hope that you're feeling you know bigger numbers of people like you speaking out. Where I sit, it feels like that. So I hope that that continues to grow. Uh, Marwan, I'm wondering if you could give us how you know your own views on the trilateral framework agreement that was signed last week. What are the biggest takeaways that you take from that?

SPEAKER_01 11:25

That's a historical uh step in the uh Lebanese state and for Lebanon. Uh, because at first this agreement uh confirms the sovereignty of the Lebanese state on its uh diplomatical uh uh decision making, and that it was for years uh at first under between the hand of uh Hafez and Bashar al-Assad, then it was used and between the hands of Hezbollah and Iran. So it's the first time that the Lebanese uh legitimacy takes uh the decision on this level, and that's very important. It's the beginning of a long road to restore the sovereignty of the Lebanese legitimacy on different uh level, uh, especially on the uh we need to go uh forward to uh have the sovereignty on the security and military uh level, but it's very important. Uh, second, that's uh this agreement confirms also the separation between the Lebanese negotiation track from the Iranian negotiation track. And also that's a very important uh step for the uh Lebanese legitimacy and uh it's uh if we can say it's a slap on the diplomatic and political slap for the Iranian influence in Lebanon. As well, uh this agreement exposed Hezbollah in front of the Lebanese. That Hasballah doctrine uh during years said that it's arms, it's for defending Lebanon, uh liberating uh the territory of Lebanon from the control of uh IDF. Now, and they didn't they didn't uh success and this uh succeed on this uh level. So now the Lebanese state through through this agreement got for Lebanon that she uh that it guarantees the uh IDF uh will leave the Lebanese territory and there is reconstruction for the south of Lebanon, but that it's under condition of disarming of Hezbollah. So if Hazab Allah rejects to cooperate on this level, that means Hazab Allah doesn't want the IDF to leave the Lebanese territory and doesn't want the people to go back to that house and doesn't want the reconstruction of that house. So uh on different level, on the diplomatic level, it was an important step. Also regarding the influence of uh Iran and Lebanon, it was an uh important slap, and uh for Hezbollah, this agreement exposed exposed Hezbollah in front of the Lebanese in general, and especially in front of the uh Shia community.

SPEAKER_02 14:42

Marwan, I just want to emphasize a point that you made that is not at all well understood here in the United States, which is how the script has been completely flipped on Hezbollah because their whole raison d'être was allegedly to use their arms, that the reason they needed their arms was to push the Israelis out of Lebanon. And this agreement flipped that upside down and was like, actually, no, it is precisely your disarmament that will get rid of that will will have that will allow the Israelis to withdraw and are what will be the root of Lebanese sovereignty. So I just I want to further emphasize that because I don't think people understand or appreciate or appreciate that enough that it is Hezbollah is really on its back foot now.

SPEAKER_01 15:28

There is something, yeah, something else also on this uh on the level of the agreement that's uh this agreement put uh Lebanon and Israel on the path uh toward the peace agreement between the two countries, and they use the word irreversible. That's uh it's uh it's one way, uh one way road. So we can uh and that's it's very important that the Lebanese state may uh did this uh commitment.

SPEAKER_03 16:00

Marwan, how is Hezbollah and the Iranians responding or or Hezbollah's patrons in in Beirut, like the parliamentary speaker Nabi Bere? I've read that there have been attempts by Hezbollah to kind of orchestrate protests, political protests, but it doesn't look like they generated much support. I'd assume in times of great change, there's always fear that there could be assassinations in 2005 when the the move to push out the Syrians, you had that string of assassinations, including against former Prime Minister Rafi Kariri. So, yeah, what how have Hezbollah in Iran responded to this very monumental agreement on the ground? And what is expected going down the road?

SPEAKER_01 16:51

It was widely expected that Hezbollah will reject this agreement. And uh we saw that uh once this agreement uh was announced, uh Hezbollah mobilized uh the people in the street, and also uh a lot uh five or uh or six uh leader uh from Hezbollah or uh office uh high-rank uh officials made uh a statement against this agreement and uh against uh President Haun and uh Joseph Haun and the government and uh treat them as uh betrayal. And also, so it's supposed uh this uh it was supposed uh uh this statement from Hezbollah. Why? Because Hezbollah feels that everything uh for the for Lebanon passed through the Lebanese state, it's an existential uh threat for uh his influence and the Iranian influence in Lebanon. In fact, Hezbollah and uh the Iranian uh influence in Lebanon is uh are not uh affected by uh the control of Israel on the Lebanese territory or by the war. The main threat for their influence comes from the Lebanese legitimacy. And Hezbollah uh doesn't care if Israel continue to control the yellow zone. What's important in the mind of Hezbollah is that from the yellow zone and up, for who is the control? If it's for Hezbollah, they are okay. If it's for the Lebanese legitimacy, here is the big problem. So they uh Hezbollah doesn't care about the space occupied by Israel. What is uh his eyes all always on the territory and the power on that uh the territory uh outside the uh the territory uh controlled by uh by Israel. And uh for that uh uh if you remember that uh uh for and the statement uh after the negotiation of uh 2nd and 3rd June, the statement uh gave Lebanon ceasefire plus pilot zone. Hezbollah and the IRGC they rejected this uh statement. Then they was uh okay with uh ceasefire, uh only ceasefire without pilot zone, agreement or the agreement between uh Washington and Tehran. So the issue is not uh the content of the agreement, but who is negotiating and who is bringing this agreement to uh Tiban. So their problem it was with the Lebanese legitimacy, not with the uh content of the agreement. If this agreement bring uh brought uh was Iran who brought it, they will not they don't have any problem with it. This is the promise regarding uh the speaker Nabih Berri. Nabih Berri is uh a political cover of the military structure of Hezbollah. He's always playing this and uh has this uh this role, and he is the head of the deep state that protects the military structure and military role of Hasbollah and also the corruption structure in Lebanon. So uh Nabih Berry always, when there is no decisive uh moment, he gave us a good statement. But when it's the decisive moment arrived, always he is aligned with Hezbollah, with Iran, against the Libani's legitimacy.

SPEAKER_02 21:09

Um Marwan, right after the agreement was signed, the UAE announced it would be allowing Emiratis to travel to Lebanon after having prohibited them from visiting at the end of April of this year. And this sounds, you know, when I saw this, it it felt to me like it looks like a small step, but it also feels as though it's a message about the opportunities that lie ahead for Lebanon as it continues down this path. And so I'm curious, sitting where you are in Lebanon, how was this viewed? Uh, this step, how is it viewed where you are? Do you think the Lebanese notice the significance of this step?

SPEAKER_01 21:45

Uh U UAE and uh like the other Arab Gulf, they are uh waiting for the Lebanese state to take action to restore its uh sovereign uh authority uh on the entire uh uh country to uh strong their relation uh with the Lebanon and also to start a wave of support uh economical support investment in uh in Lebanon and also to open Lebanon uh to the Gulf citizen uh tourist on the tourist level the the ball is in the Lebanese uh Lebanese state uh court to take uh the necessary uh action uh especially that they uh they have a concern about the security of their citizens in uh in Lebanon and uh and uh we see that uh uh in the last war the Iranian uh also attacked the uh Arab Gulf and uh they are uh threatening the Arab interest so uh once here the Lebanese state uh take again uh the initiative on the security and military uh level I think uh that uh this uh the Arab country will be around Lebanon and uh supporting uh Lebanon this step from UAE it's a first step on a long path to arrive to the other things that's supposed from the Gulf countries uh regarding Lebanon and also not only the Gulf countries uh also the international community are waiting Lebanon to become a normal state nor because in the normal state there is no duality uh on the level of uh handling the arm and on the level of the decision of war and peace.

SPEAKER_03 23:56

I'm curious a bit on sort of the timing of this the the interesting part of this agreement is that like Hagar was saying in you too that it's kind of flipped the script. Now it's the Lebanese state that's recovering Lebanese sovereign land not Hezbollah but is there like a time element are people going to get restless in like six months if the Israelis are still occupying part of Lebanon is that something that Hezbollah is kind of going to try to play with saying oh you know this is the Israelis aren't really serious about pulling out um so yeah I'm curious about the time element of it because it is interesting how the the script has been flipped.

SPEAKER_01 24:36

And now it's a period uh where the majority of Lebanese are in favor of the peace agreement with Israel. The uh the obstacle up uh uh on this level is the arm of uh Hezbollah uh the arm of the uh of Hezbollah is threatening the Lebanese stability as much as the Israeli stability on this level I think uh uh that's uh a solution find a solution for Hezbollah military infrastructure uh will uh facilitate a lot the Lebanese uh government to take a step forward the peace with uh Israel especially that between Lebanon and Israel there is no big issue so if I asked you now if there is no uh Hezbollah there is no uh we solve the uh problem of the arm of Hezbollah what is the problem uh between Lebanon and Israel to not go to peace there is nothing so uh this is the main issue that once we solve it the path to the uh to the peace it will it will be easy between uh both uh countries and uh and on this level I think that also the Lebanese state should take action and also the international community especially US uh administrative should uh make a pressure on the Iranian regime to dismantle uh this uh uh military structure for him in Lebanon because Hezbollah uh at the end of time is not a Libanese military structure or Libanese militia it is a Iranian uh military structure on the Lebanese territory and uh the war what happened now uh that happened uh happened now it's between Israel uh from side and uh Hezbollah and Iran from the other side and happen on the Lebanese territory.

SPEAKER_02 26:53

You know Marwan I I love how you framed all of this because it's it's the thing that I'm seeing as well when I work on these efforts is when you're seeing the two sides Lebanon and Israel and the things they agree on. And by the way the push that they made to save this process it gives a lot of hope uh a lot of reason for optimism is what I'm trying to say. But of course you know any all peace processes don't have there is no peace process with a guaranteed outcome. And in fact there were real few weeks there in the run up to this agreement that where it felt like the Iranian regime was the one playing its cards very well. And so I'm wondering whether what concerns you might have if if any that we need to keep our eyes peeled for.

SPEAKER_01 27:37

You know for example what do you think about the Iranian regime being able to sell its oil right now what are these you know maybe uh vulnerabilities or risks that and concerns that you see that that we should watch out for um yes as I said that there is no big problem between Lebanon and Israel and it's easy to go to peace but the main problem is Iran uh influence in Lebanon and Hezbollah structure so once again we give Iran this power and we give Iran the possibility to breathe on the different level either uh either economic or politic or uh other levels so it will be a big obstacle for the peace uh in Lebanon and also the peace uh between the other region and uh in other countries in the region and uh Israel so uh at first we should uh solve this problem especially that the Iranian uh regime live on the uh uh on that uh choice on the cows on the having a problem uh for the its neighbor uh on exporting the um uh uh the revolution the Islamic revolution to uh other countries so uh for that uh uh I don't know if it's possible to get peace while the Iranian regime is still here. Can you talk a bit more about what do you think the broader implications would be if this peace agreement this process holds and Hezbollah has been weakened because the you know the the Islamic Republic has this access of resistance these networks across the Middle East but they've they've lost the Assad regime in Syria Hamas has been greatly weakened by the the war over the past three years what would be the ripple effects if if the peace can hold in Lebanon and Hezbollah could be kind of exercised excised from Lebanon you know that uh the Iranian access and its proxies in the region are uh now uh much weaker in comparison of what they were before uh 7 October 2023 uh you know the situation of Hamas the situation of Hezbollah the situation of other also proxies in the region there is no about uh the Assad regime is not anymore uh here uh on this level of course it's uh it's not the same on the the Iran regime and its proxy is not in this at the same uh in the same power has the same power as it was uh before uh 2023 october 7 2023 but this uh Iranian access is still here you know that us now is negotiation is negotiating the Iranian regime the Iranian regime is still here okay Ali Khamina uh uh was killed also Hassan Nasrallah also was killed Senwar was killed a lot of uh uh the of uh leaders of this axis were killed but Hezbollah is still here Hamas is still here is still controlling uh the ground in Lebanon uh Hasbolla is still controlling the Shia community in uh Lebanon also the Iran regime is still here uh yes there is a big uh difference of where we were we were and where we are uh we are now but I repeat to make a step forward I don't I think that Hezbollah the the key of Hezbollah is in the hand of Iran so as much as the as long as the Iranian uh regime is here so uh this regime it will will continue to use Hezbollah to use Hamas in a way or another way to keep its control on Lebanon on Gaza on Iraq trying to make troubles for the Gulf countries uh so the solution should start by the hand of the snake it is in Tehran Marwan I wanna I wanna wrap it up with by looking ahead you've really so articulately explained why this why this agreement why Lebanon why this process is actually so central it seems so niche in such a small corner of the world and yet it is so central to undermining the Iranian regime its proxies and all the threats it poses globally because of that and so what I'm curious from from you if you could you know as a way of wrapping this up is what more you would like to see from the United States and other international governments to further undermine Hezbollah and to do so permanently you know Lebanon uh can't uh achieve a stability as long as Hezbollah is here is armed and uh also Lebanon can't get the end of the pass of the peace between Lebanon and Israel as long as Hezbollah is armed. And this one is related organically to Iranian regime. So the Lebanese state should take action to exercise the decision that the government took on 5th and 7 August 2025 and 2nd of March 2020 regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah and also the leader of the army should exercise and exercise the responsibility on this level and start this disarming Hezbollah but also there is a pressure can the US make on the Iranian regime to stop spreading the the problems in Lebanon stop supporting Hezbollah as an armed group and accept that this era is finished and Hezbollah should be transferred to a political party pure political party but here there is a question can Hezbollah be a political party or can Iran be a normal country a normal regime in the region? I don't think so I don't think the country will ability as long as the Iranian regime exists in Iran and Hezbollah exists in Lebanon it's very interesting.

SPEAKER_02 35:11

Marwan thank you so much for joining us and for sharing your story. Jay anything you want to add?

SPEAKER_03 35:17

No that was great I'm keeping my fingers crossed love to see this move forward and way to work Hagar I know you've been tireless on this it is exhausting but it is it is worth it especially when you feel the potential there.

SPEAKER_02 35:32

Marwan before we go where can listeners find you or learn more about your work?

SPEAKER_01 35:37

At first thank you for this uh great interview and uh sorry for uh my uh English language it's not uh perfect I try as much as I can you did very well uh thank you as you know that I write weekly for this is by Ruth it's uh an English media out uh outlet in Lebanon it's the first media uh English media outlet in Lebanon and also I write but that's an Arabic Mida al-Wata newspaper and on the Lebanese and Arab media I'm all with uh that there to try to reflect what the silent uh Shia people think and uh want uh so I'm trying to uh be their voice.

SPEAKER_02 36:25

Amazing for listeners if you made it this far please consider leaving us a review preferably a good one it makes a huge difference in helping people find us. And if you have an idea or question for us or just want to say hi, please send us a note at thethreatpod at gwu.emil dot edu. For now we'll see you next time.