Arsenal_AM_Episode_009_So now we know

Arsenal start the day off the top of the table for the first time since game week 7, we are behind on goals scored so the task is simple get more points than Man City, and if we can't do that get a greater goal difference. 

In the show I discuss the pressures and permutations and my thoughts on what is required. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:20

Good morning. Morning where we start our start the day second and table for the first time since game week seven. Ouch. Um yeah, well now we know. We know where we stand. The goal difference is equal. It's a goal scored that separates us from them. And we've kind of lived this before if you're old enough. If you're not, Arsenal won the league in 89 with on goal scored. So we've been there, we've done that, and it looks like we're heading that way again. Um over the course of the day or so I had looked at a couple of different things, and I suppose I'll just talk you through some of them. In the Premier League era, no team who started the final day second has ever jumped to become champions. There's been times when during the final day they have been in that position, but again, you know, during the during the flux of the game, it doesn't really matter. You know, it's if you hold on to it, it's great. If you if you don't, you don't, and it doesn't mean anything then. You know, uh it's kind of like a little bit like uh Lee Dixon said in '89, yeah, you won it, you lost it, boo-hoo you. I think I'm paraphrasing a bit, but that was the general sentiment. So I've felt since Sunday that whoever drops points next, that's it, it they're done, dusted. There is no there's no second chance anymore. This is our second chance. With that said, one of the other bits and pieces I was looking at was Roger being out. Roger being out from Man City drops their win rate from 73% down to 60%. So if he is absent for a couple of weeks, even three, let's say, I'll be optimistic on that. I know nothing about his situation, but if he is out when City are playing Bournemouth, Brentford, Everton, it definitely increases their chances of not getting a win, and quite simply a draw is enough to to derail anybody at this stage, so I think you know let's keep an eye on that one. I didn't watch the Man City Barney game. I know that I'm as much of Masochist as an ex Arsenal fan, but no, I I had no inclination doing that. I was kind of happy enough watching whatever on TV and refreshing website every now and again. My phone wasn't going hopping, so I was pretty sure it wasn't anything. The one goal just puts everything level. So if we outscore City in any one game, then we're we're back on top by goal difference. And I do believe we can do that. But my gut tells me it won't come down to the goal difference. I don't think both teams go five and five, and if they do May 24th is going to be an epically stressful day for everybody, um, but there's a lot of time to go between then and now. Um so let's have uh another quick look around the expectations around. So I was just looking at the opta analysis, and they still give Arsenal a 66.3% chance or point four percent chance of winning the league. So technically, based on the games in front of both teams, we find ourselves being favorite. Our expected points are 80.75, and that that's only 10 points from you know, 10, 11 points from our potential 15. So there's potentially two draws according to the opta ficture predictor, and Man City are predicted to get 79 points, which is just three wins, so two defeats. Now, I would be absolutely delighted for Man City to lose the next two games, but let's um let's park that for a moment. So, due to the FA Cup, Arsenal played two games before City played next. So we have Newcastle the weekend and Fulham the following weekend. They are a chance to put for us to put the pressure back on City and for them to be the ones chasing. I take one nil in both of them because it's on them to go and get a result, and they then have to go to Everton knowing that they cannot afford a slip up. I think if we can do that it reshapes the dynamic again. We saw City on Sunday after the game feel like they had done it, you know, that sort to a certain degree they had overturned the the deficit that they faced. And you know, the the the man who uh claims to be humble was pretty arrogant, really, from from my uh perspective. Um so I think let's put it back up to them. I don't think I don't think they're necessarily playing well. Um that that message was was sent to me that you know that the game was pretty dire. And again, I think a lot of the games in the Premier League are pretty dire. It kind of feels a bit like the latter end of Syria as dominance when they had all the great players, and because they had that teams just settled not to get whooped, and it stifles the game, and it's easier to stifle the game than it is to be magical. So with that, you know, the Saturday, May 9th, it's the first time City could potentially get back level with us if we were to win our next two, and on May 10th we can ramp up the pressure again by beating what by playing and beating West Ham. I'm just having a look at the game week 37 again. There the fixtures are all listed for uh Saturday at 3 o'clock, that ain't happening, but Burnley come to us and City go to Bournemouth. Neither place is a you know Bournemouth is not an easy place to go, we've struggled there ourselves, and I'm sure Iriola would like to go out on a hike for his final game at Bournemouth, and maybe some of the Bournemouth players might be interested in uh showing Semenio you shouldn't have left us, so you know I'm I'm hopeful, and then the final game of the season for us is an away trip to Palace and Villa go to Men City. I'm not putting any faith in in Villa, but I do think it will be not decided. I do think we'll go down to the final day of the season, but I do think we will have a fair indication as to whether we are likely to be champions by then. You know, the the last time any team started the last day of the season second and and jumped the the the leaders was May 26, 1989. And even if that went down to the wire when Mickey Thomas scored for us. So yeah, if you've if you've got a heart condition, you know, maybe uh get on to your doctor, get a defibrillator nearby, something, look after yourselves. Um but I'm trying to think of what the team needs between here and the end of the season. We don't leave London, so you know we we don't have the length of travelling, we don't have those long journeys. We do have two games against Atletico Madrid that are their own thing, and I think all season long the Champions League has been an escape from the Premier League pressures, but a Champions League semi-final comes with its own pressure. Will that pressure help? Will it will it drain us? It depends. I really don't want to have to go you know 120 minutes in the second leg against Atletico Madrid and potential penalties because that will take so much out. I you know I also don't want to lose because again I think the mentality and the impact would be felt across the squad far more prominently than you know we'd we'd like you often hear that the team that keeps winning, it keeps momentum going. So the first thing we need is a win. The second thing we need is the home fans to provide a safe space. No matter how nervous we are as fans, those who are fortunate enough to have tickets to go to the game need to bring a positive energy, a misplaced pass needs to be greeted with you know assume it's just simple misplaced passing and it doesn't lead to something, but we need to get behind the team, much like when William Saliba scored no goal against Fulham what two, three years ago, and the fans chanted his name and lifted the team, lifted him, and we would we fully supported the positivity that we provided. So I think we need to get to that level even if we have a large element of fear amongst us because we finished second three times in a row and it's hurt, and we're we fear that again even if we were to finish second I would see it would hurt and you know there's there's no getting away from that, but there is positives. I also may maybe wonder that the way we're playing at the moment, we just don't know how injured a lot of our guys are again Sakham, Matowicke, Trossard, Rice, Zubumendi, Havertz, probably Jocharist as well, Odegaard. Essentially our our front midfield and front front line have been hampered nearly all season. So we've had to be functional over anything else, and being functional has got us into a Premier League shootout, like we haven't seen in a long time. Again, United and City, Arsenal United in '99, and Blackburn and United in 94-95, you know, it doesn't go to the wire all that much. So if you're lucky enough to go to the ground, bring your A game, bring your belief that we are gonna get there, and show that to the team. Because they're gonna need lifting at at some point, and that's our job. Their job is to win, our job is to assist them any way we can. Alright, uh, that is today's show. We will have hopefully a bit of news about injuries and build up to Newcastle tomorrow, and we'll see how we go. Come on, the gunners.