The Assay Podcast - Where mining meets capital

The Investor’s Edge: Rick Rule

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What separates great investors from the crowd? Lyndsay Malchuk explores the mindset, discipline, and decision-making framework behind Rick Rule’s decades of success in the resource sector.

Recorded live at 121 Mining Investment New York. 

SPEAKER_00

You're listening to the Asse Podcast, where mining meets capital, powered by one-to-one mining investment. Today we are coming live from our event in New York City. Please note this podcast is for information only and isn't financial advice or recommendation to invest. As always, the views you'll hear are those of the speakers.

SPEAKER_02

Welcome to the Assey TV Podcast. I'm your guest host, Lindsay Melcher with Appeton Media. Every market cycle creates new winners, new losers, and a fresh wave of experts who claim they saw it all coming. But if you study the investors who have been successful for decades through booms, busts, crashes, bubbles, and commodity cycles, you begin to notice something very interesting. Their advantage rarely comes from having better information. It comes from thinking differently. It comes from knowing when to act, when to wait, and perhaps most importantly, when to do absolutely nothing at all. Today's guest has spent more than five decades navigating some of the most volatile sectors on the planet. He's financed hundreds of resource companies, evaluated thousands more, and built a reputation for seeing opportunities long before they become obvious to everyone else. So today we're not talking about stock picks, we're talking about the mindset, the discipline, and decision-making framework that separates exceptional investors from the crowded ones. This is the investor's edge. And joining me today is one of the most respected voices in resource investing, Rick Ruhl. Rick, it's so great to have you here. You know, we travel around the world and I'm just happy that we were able to bring it together virtually.

SPEAKER_01

Well, I'm flattered. Thank you for having me.

SPEAKER_02

Absolutely. Now, for those who somehow aren't familiar with your story, I'll give some Coles notes here. You began your career in the securities business in 1974 and went on to become one of the most recognized investors in the natural resource sector. You've participated in hundreds of financing, built global resource investments, helped shape what became Sprat USA Holdings, and today you continue educating investors through Rick Investment Media. What's always fascinated me, though, about you is that while markets, technologies, commodities, and headlines have changed dramatically over the years, the principles that guide successful investing seem remarkably consistent. And that's exactly what I'd like to actually explore with you today. Rick, when you look back over 50 years in the investment business, what are the characteristics that consistently show up in successful investors regardless of the market cycle they're operating in?

SPEAKER_01

I think uh hard work, discipline, which is different than hard work, right?

SPEAKER_02

Uh coffee.

SPEAKER_01

Uh and patience.

SPEAKER_02

Ah.

SPEAKER_01

Uh I guess probably a tolerance for risk, I should add to that. Uh Warren Buffett once said, uh, you know, he's a fairly cautious guy. He said uh if you don't like the idea of experiencing a 50% downturn in your portfolio every 10 or 12 years, you don't belong in equities. Uh which is a very interesting statement because if you look at the chart of Berkeley Hathaway over the last 50 years, there have been, in fact, been four periods where the stock was down by more than 50% in 18 months.

SPEAKER_04

Right.

SPEAKER_01

If you look at the chart, you can't see those dips from the lower left to the upper right. They were traumatic when you experienced them, but it talks that talks all about patience and discipline.

SPEAKER_02

Absolutely. Well, one of the things I've noticed is that most people even spend their time looking for the next winning stock while very few are actually spending time examining now how they're making decisions in the first place. When you meet investors for the first time, what are the most common mistakes you see them making, particularly in the resource sector?

SPEAKER_01

Uh in the resource sector, I I think it's well, for in the resource sector, because it's capital-intensive and cyclical, you have to be a contrarian. Uh you have to buy hate, you have to buy stuff that's decidedly out of favor. Uh most investors need the price action in a commodity to justify the narrative. You make money and resources by having the courage to ignore a narrative. Uh, in other words, you have to buy something when it's truly unloved. Right. You can talk to an audience, as an example, about buying uranium when the stuff is at $20 a pound and nobody wants to hear. When it goes to $80 a pound, the price action has justified the narrative, but the truth is that the performance is gone.

SPEAKER_03

Right.

SPEAKER_01

So many investors uh I guess understand narrative, but they require price verification, which makes the narrative much less valuable. I I think another common mistake is that while many resource investors have a good strategic sense as an example. They think Popper might do well over the next five years, their strategy is different than their tactics. They have trauma holding stock over a long weekend when they've invested in a uh in a sector that should take them five years to generate a return. So the disconnect between strategy and tactic uh I think is problematic for many.

SPEAKER_02

Well, the interesting thing about mistakes is that they're often emotional rather than analytical, really. I mean, which brings me to something we've spoken about for years. How do you separate facts from narratives when everyone around you seems convinced that a particular story is either the greatest opportunity ever or the end of the world?

SPEAKER_01

Well, I think you have to confine the sources of information that you use to people who are you are reasonably certain know something about what they're talking about.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

There's a lot of opinions out there, uh, many of them unfounded. Uh and the second is that you must take the time to do the work yourself. Uh people probably would be well advised to spend less time reading financial publications and more time reading annual reports, quarterly reports, uh filing statements, in other words, familiarizing themselves with the facts. It can be very instructive if you own enough of a stock to make it worth your while, to read five years of annual reports and look at how, as an example, the CEO's description of what they intended to accomplish varies or doesn't from what they actually accomplish.

SPEAKER_03

Yep.

SPEAKER_01

Most people, sadly for them, don't do that.

SPEAKER_02

Well, let's stay on this theme of independent thinking for just a little bit longer. Some of the biggest returns in the resource sector have come from buying when a sector is deeply unpopular, much like you said. So, how do you determine the difference between an overlooked opportunity and a situation that's been just ignored for a good reason?

SPEAKER_01

Two ways. Uh and by the way, you're not always successful. I'll get into that too.

SPEAKER_02

That's that's so true.

SPEAKER_01

My uh former partner and mentor, Eric Sprat, said being wrong is the price you pay for being right.

SPEAKER_04

This is that uh so good advice.

SPEAKER_01

You will make mistakes. But the answer to the question, uh I think I would describe it as common sense, but perhaps it's causing your brain to overwhelm your heart. An example, uh, we talked about uranium earlier. When uranium was selling for $20 a pound, it was costing the industry, fully loaded, including cost of capital and tax, $40 a pound to make it. So the industry was losing $20 a pound, being dumb miners, doing it 150 million times a year, uh, and trying to make the shortfall up on volume. Uh, on the face of it, very unattractive. But if you thought through the circumstance, you understood that if the price of uranium didn't rise enough for the industry to at least at least earn its cost of capital, that hence there would be no uranium and there would be no electricity. So you would need to decide, Lindsay, is it more likely that the price of uranium will go up to the cost of production or that your lights will go out? Because those are the only two choices. If you uh uh uh constrain yourself in resources to only uh buying commodities when they're selling at a discount to the total cost of production, understanding that they may go lower before they go up, but understand too that you'll have to hold for the five-year time frame, you'll do extraordinarily well.

SPEAKER_04

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

It's difficult, though, as you said in your introductory remarks, it's very, it's very difficult to do nothing. There will be times when you do nothing at all, uh, which is probably a very good thing to do. I've never mastered it, Savage.

SPEAKER_02

I was going to ask, have you ever been in a situation where you've just done nothing?

SPEAKER_01

No.

SPEAKER_02

No, okay.

SPEAKER_01

I I've been in several circumstances where I should have done nothing.

SPEAKER_02

Oh.

SPEAKER_01

But uh the urge to be busy, you know, uh got in my way.

SPEAKER_02

Well, you know, with investors, with anything in life, it always starts with an emotion. Whether it's good, bad, pretty, ugly, there is always an emotion that that steps into play to get you into the first part of the tunnel or the funnel to get you through. One thing that has always stood out about your approach is your willing willingness to actually say, I don't know. And that's surprisingly rare in financial markets. How important is intellectual humility in investing? And how do you invest with balanced confidence in research when the reality could be very wrong?

SPEAKER_01

Well, I think that's a critical question. Uh there was a time in my life when I was a younger man, and younger, let's just say it, younger males are are frequently prone to hubris.

SPEAKER_03

Right.

SPEAKER_01

Maybe, you know, more testosterone than serotonin or something. Uh and there was a point in time in my younger years when I thought my prowess and resources, which I understood, uh signified uh a broader capacity for business and finance.

unknown

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

Uh and I tried to invest in areas outside my area of expertise, and I got spanked, you know? Uh and so I decided that I had a choice between doing well inside my area of expertise or doing poorly outside my area of expertise. And when I defined it in those very stark terms, it became easy. Uh I had a discussion uh the end of last week about SpaceX.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And some somebody was asking me, you know, what I thought. And I had to say very honestly, I don't think. Uh it isn't what I do. Uh I have no idea how to value that business, either today or in terms of what it could be worth five years five years from now.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

And I don't have any interest in learning. Uh, particularly, I don't have any interest in learning to compete with probably a thousand people who know more than I. Uh having the willingness to, as Buffett says, uh, examine your area of confidence and draw a very tight circle around it. And don't go into the circle, uh, which is advice that's treated me well.

SPEAKER_02

It's the the circle of trust. That's what it's like.

SPEAKER_01

Circle of circle of confidence, I think, and trust. Um you know, know a little bit about, or maybe a lot, about, what you know. And if you don't know, my suggestion is don't go there.

SPEAKER_02

Okay. Okay. Well, let's shift gears here for a moment and talk specifically about resource investing. That is your circle of confidence and what was it, trust and competence. That's what it is. So you've analyzed thousands of management teams over the years. When you're evaluating a resource company, Rick, what qualities in management immediately get your attention?

SPEAKER_01

Depends on the size of the company.

SPEAKER_02

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

But in the in the smaller companies, what you look for is management teams that have been serially successful.

SPEAKER_04

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

And serially successful at the task at hand. If somebody tells you in mining that he or she has been a success, but let's suggest that the success that they describe was operating a gold mine in Archean, two billion-year-old rock packages in French-speaking Quebec. But the task at hand is exploring rather than operating for gold silver or gold copper porphyries in 20 million-year-old accreted terrain in Spanish-speaking Peru. Yes, both activities are mining, but they aren't related activities. So although the person may have been successful, they weren't successful at the task at hand. Somebody who is doing something that he or she has familiarity with and has been successful at greatly changes the odds. And who that person has chosen to do it with and why matters too. Was the chairman chosen because the chairman could protect the CEO? Or were they chosen because they had experience guiding and building businesses? If the firm will have to raise money to build a mine, has the chief financial officer raised money to build a mine before? In other words, the experience, the resumes for the management and the directors have to have evidence of success, but they also have to have evidence of success at the task at hand. I'm sure your listeners are familiar with the Pareto principle, the uh sociological description of the 80-20 rule, where 20% of the jet of the population generates 80% of the utility. There's uh people dislike it because it's elitist.

SPEAKER_03

Right.

SPEAKER_01

Uh it's also true. Uh and you need to understand a couple more things about it. Uh it's really a bell-shaped curve, which suggests that 20% of the people generate 80% of the positive utility, a different 20% of the people generate 80% of the aggravation. So finding the good 20 to hang out with and avoiding the bad 20 is your first task. The second task is to understand that both the good and the bad lip, uh, if you run them through the same performance dispersal curve, conformably aligned, which is a fancy way of saying, that 20% of the 20 does 80% of the 80, or 4% of the population generates about 65% of the utility. So what you will learn in a universe like junior mining, 3,000 listings, is that fewer than 4% of the management teams will generate over 60% of the performance. The most important thing to do is uh search for serely successful management teams uh involved in tasks that they're familiar with.

SPEAKER_03

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

I uh had cocktails the night before last with Ross Beatty in Vancouver, uh, and we visited over four decades of collaboration. Wow. Uh I remember now that I have participated in 14 of Ross Beatty's companies.

SPEAKER_03

Wow.

SPEAKER_01

Uh and 12 of them yielded 10 for one returns.

SPEAKER_03

That's unreal. Wow.

SPEAKER_01

That yeah, I it it says a lot. So I would say for the small companies, uh it's all about people. The second test would be scale in small companies. Uh it's seductive for entrepreneurs to listen to the story about somebody's going to develop a small mine and they're going to use the cash flow, you know, to grow without having to issue more stock. It it's very seductive and it seldom works. Small mines have the same risks as big mines, but they can only ever make you small money. So the idea that you take big risks for small money is let's just say strange arithmetic. And then the third thing is where we started. Uh if you want to make money in commodities, you have to be a contrarian.

unknown

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

You have to buy uranium when nobody wants it.

SPEAKER_04

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

You have to buy gold when nobody wants it. You have to buy oil and gas when nobody wants it. When I was young, that was hard. Uh having done it for 50 years, uh, you learn to develop a uh an appreciation for boredom and a love of hate.

SPEAKER_02

Absolutely. Those are all really great perspectives and such great insight from so many years of experience, too. Now, Rick, while management matters 100%, so does timing. And a great company in the wrong market can still struggle. So as we sit here today, where do you believe investors are paying too much attention and where are they paying too little attention right now?

SPEAKER_01

I I if you're talking about right now, the last three months, I'm d delighted to see everything sell off. Oh, okay.

SPEAKER_02

There we go.

SPEAKER_01

You know, I I believe we have a great five and ten year future in resources.

unknown

Uh-huh.

SPEAKER_01

And so the fact that the gold price is an example and the share prices of gold equities has sold off is very attractive to me.

SPEAKER_04

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

I like that. Uh I'm a structural buyer, not a seller. So lower prices are in my interest.

SPEAKER_03

Of course.

SPEAKER_01

Um what is particularly hated right now? That I mean the problem with this market is that there's no overt hatred in the commodity markets. If you took me back five years ago, uh, the aftermath of the silver squeeze, silver was truly hated. Uh it was truly hated. And the consequence of that is it was a no-brainer. When somebody goes on social media and veils against silver, uh, it's unlikely they're long, right? They've probably already sold, which is to say, in that market the sellers have disappeared and there are no buyers because it's unpopular. So hatred's where it's at. Unfortunately, very little is hated, with the exception of countries. There are still places that are unhated.

SPEAKER_03

Yes, that's so.

SPEAKER_01

And while those places are often hated for a reason, uh often the narrative hatred means that even though there are risks, the risks are mispriced. Or probably, stated differently, uh, places that are perceived as being less risky are overpriced. When I look at my own speculative results over 50 years, the countries that have treated me extraordinarily well in a speculative sense have always been hated. Congo treated me well. Uh South Sudan treated me well. Russia treated me very well for 24 years before one very bad year.

SPEAKER_02

All it takes is one.

SPEAKER_01

That's right. But conversely, places that are regarded as not risky, uh, say California, right? Uh my home state, uh, is very risky politically. It's just some of your audience will resonate this with this. Uh people who look like me, which is to say old, bald, fat white guys, tend to believe that money that's stolen from us in English by white people through the legislature is less gone than money stolen by more traditional methods.

unknown

Okay.

SPEAKER_01

And I've learned that the money is equally gone in either circumstance. So I do look in my speculative accounts for places where I believe the political risk has been overstated in the market cap of the company. Well, emerging in frontier markets, often war zones.

SPEAKER_02

The political risk is becoming more of a thing more and more. I mean, we we can't get away from it anymore. And so one of the conversations that I had earlier was do you think that governments are playing a bigger role in the markets right now? What's your take on that?

SPEAKER_01

Of course. This will be unpopular with some of your delegates, but governments exist to steal. Uh that's why they're created. They take money from producers and they distribute it to constituents or voters. That's what they exist to do. Yeah. Governments don't steal. From markets that aren't earning money. Why would you steal an oil well if it wasn't going to make you money? Right? So now that we're in a commodity cycle where, as an example, in the oil and gas industry they're enjoying 50% margins, of course the government's going to cut and steal. Of course. So yes, political risk is growing. What's important, though, is that your audience identify where political risk really is. You remember in the 1970s in the U.S. the oil and gas prices were strong. So the government put in excess profits tax. That's politically that's that's political risk.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, it is.

SPEAKER_01

The fact that the first person who stole our money looks like me doesn't make the money less gone. Fifteen years ago in Alberta, in Canada, the natural gas price doubles, and the provincial legislature doubled the royalty overnight. That's political risk. So to suggest jurisdictions that aren't viewed as risky aren't risky is to ignore history and also to misunderstand the nature of government.

SPEAKER_02

Fair enough. Well, let's bring this back to the audience then, because many investors listening today aren't managing billions of dollars. They're managing their own capital. So if someone wanted to become a dramatically better investor over the next five years, we'll say, what habits would you encourage them to develop to starting today?

SPEAKER_01

The first is work.

SPEAKER_02

Work.

SPEAKER_01

Really truly work. Read balance sheets, read income statements, read resource statements. When I say work, uh I don't mean uh spending 10 hours a day on Bloomberg or something like that. Uh I'm talking about familiarizing yourself with the task at hand. I ask speculators in particular to limit the number of stocks I own to the number of hours per month they spend uh studying their stocks. So if you spend 10 hours a month, you can have 10 stocks in your portfolio. What I find, and I I think you know this, Lindsay, I have over 35 years as a service, graded for free almost a hundred thousand portfolios. So I've learned a lot about the mistakes that speculators make. And the number one mistake they make is that their methodology seems to be got a hunch pet a bunch. You I write myself, every time I buy a stock, a memo as to why I bought it, what my expectations are, what might go wrong, and what what might constitute success. And then I review that memo every 90 days. Uh I, and I'm not bad at this, I look at resource statements, I look at income statements, I look at balance sheets on an ongoing basis, and what I find is that many speculators who have portfolios of 40 or 50 stocks spend two hours a month as opposed to 40 or 50 hours.

SPEAKER_03

My gosh.

SPEAKER_01

Uh it's difficult to succeed if you don't cry. Uh the second is that you must be patient. Uh when I look as an example at the uh tenfold returns I got with Ross Beatty, 1000% returns, the median holding period on those was something like 70 months. And you have to be durable too. I suspect that every single one of the 10 baggers I had with Ross Beatty fell 50% in price at some point in time during the time I held it. So, in addition to the fact that I had to be patient, I had to be persistent.

SPEAKER_02

You have to be persistent.

SPEAKER_01

If you know enough about the company that you have an opinion as to its value, the price fluctuations will bother you less.

SPEAKER_04

Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_01

If you think the stock is worth $5 and it's selling for $4, you're okay. If you think it's worth $5 and it falls to three, you likely will buy a lot more. If you have no idea what it's worth and it falls from four to three, you'll likely panic and sell. Uh so the idea that you know enough you have an opinion with regards to value allows you to endure volatility and profit from cyclicality.

SPEAKER_03

That makes sense. Yeah, absolutely.

SPEAKER_01

You know, the right thing to do uh with a stock that you liked at five, if it hits 250, is buy a lot more.

SPEAKER_02

Buy, yeah. Well, you know, we are running out of time, but I wanted to actually give some space here because I know that there is a lot going on over there for you and with Battle Bank. What's the update? Give us an update on all the things, Rick Rule, right now.

SPEAKER_01

Well, I uh uh I failed retirement completely, Lindsay. Uh I think this comes as no surprise to most. So I'm doing a lot. Uh I have rural investment media, where, as I said before, I'll grade any of your listeners' portfolios for free. If you go to my website, list your natural resource stocks, and I'll rank them one to ten, one being best, ten being worst, and I'll comment on individual issues if I think my comments might have value. Please, by the way, no tech stocks, uh, no crypto. You know, leave an old guy to what he does best.

SPEAKER_02

Stay in your circle of trust.

SPEAKER_01

That's right. That's right. Uh the second thing we do at the is the rural classroom. The rural classroom, rural classroom.com, has well over 300 hours of instructional programming.

SPEAKER_02

Wow.

SPEAKER_01

All for free. That's amazing. Money back guarantee, Lindsay. If you don't think you got your money, money back guarantee.

SPEAKER_02

It's free, money back guarantee.

SPEAKER_01

Right. Right. Uh then, of course, there's Battle Bank.

SPEAKER_02

There's Battle Bank.

SPEAKER_01

I've been a banker for a long time. Uh, other than resources, the only other industry I know is conventional financial services, particularly financial services around resources and precious metals, which is what Battle Bank is. We built a bank years ago called Everbank from zero to twenty-eight billion, sold it, uh, decided for some reason to get back in the banking business, I guess because I love it, and we built a new bank. It's nine weeks old. Uh we just went through a billion dollars, uh, pardon me, a hundred, I'm zero ahead of myself, a hundred million dollars in deposits. We do a few things differently. Uh we pay people interest on their checking account. For example, there's big three trillion dollars in deposit in the US that gets paid no interest, which is really stupid.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Uh we also allow people to bank in 20 currencies, not just the US dollar. So if you think uh the Swiss franc will do well, or Singaporean currency will do well, or if you live in both the US and Canada and you need to bank in two currencies, we'll let you do that. Most banks only let you do one. Importantly for your audience, uh we think bullion, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, are good collateral. So if you've been stacking bullion for 20 years, you have a lot of your net worth tied up in your stack, but you need to access the capital for some reason. You don't want to sell the stuff, you don't want to pay the capital gains tax. You lodge it with us and we'll set up a line of credit against it.

SPEAKER_02

That's amazing.

SPEAKER_01

Which has proven to be uh an enormously popular product with our audience here. I've been doing that privately for years, Lindsay, and from a banker's perspective, the other thing that's nice about the people who store their wealth in gold and silver, is they're normally pretty prudent people. So, separate apart from the fact that gold and silver are good collateral, uh those are good borrowers, people who have the decency to pay you back.

SPEAKER_02

Mm-hmm. I like all that. Well, before we wrap up here, Rick, I'd like to leave our audience with one final thought. After everything you've seen, every cycle you've lived through, every success and every mistake, what's one lesson about investing that took you decades to learn, but that you wish every investor understood much earlier now?

SPEAKER_01

There's two, frankly. Um they occurred they occurred simultaneously. The decade of the 70s, you know, when I was young, wet behind the ears, uh, happened to be the strongest decade that natural resources ever had. Being a young man, I confused a bull market with brains. Uh I made a bunch of money as a young man, uh, but it didn't occur to me that the gold price had gone from $35 to $850. I thought I was smart. Uh that taught me an important lesson, which is the markets work. And the cure for high prices is always high prices. Uh by the end of that decade, I was buying love as opposed to buying hate. So you have to be a contrarian or you are going to be a victim.

SPEAKER_03

All right. That's the way the game works. Okay.

SPEAKER_01

And if you are investing in capital-intensive cyclical businesses like mining, you have to be very patient. Uh this game, well, I mean, if if they as they say compounding is the first wonder of the investment world, by definition, compounding takes time. So you have to be patient and you have to be very durable. These stocks can go up 10 or 15 percent or down 10 or 15 percent in a day for no real reason, other than say uh an institutional investor got redemptions and had to sell. So you have to be very durable to make really good money, these stocks.

SPEAKER_02

Wow, I love all that. Rick, thank you so much for joining us today. This is a great conversation. I'm already looking forward to our next one soon.

SPEAKER_01

Thank you for the opportunity to talk to your audience.

SPEAKER_02

Absolutely. One of the biggest takeaways from today's conversation is that successful investing isn't just about finding opportunities, it's about developing the discipline to think independently, the patience to wait when others are rushing, and the willingness to keep learning no matter how much experience you have. Markets will change. Commodity cycles will come and go. Headlines will continue to create excitement, fear, and distraction. But the principles we've discussed today have endured through decades of market cycles, and that's what makes them so valuable. To everyone listening, perhaps the real investor's edge isn't access to better information. Perhaps it's developing a better framework for making decisions. Now remember, these are the opinions of our own with possible vested interest in any or all of the companies we may have spoken about. Please do not use this as financial advice. Always be sure to speak with a licensed financial advisor and know your own risk tolerances. I'm Lindsay Melchick with Appeton, guest host right here at Investors Edge in New York City. Thank you for joining us and we'll see you next time.

SPEAKER_00

Thanks for listening to the Assay podcast, where mining meets capital, powered by one-to-one mining investment. Subscribe for new episodes and visit theassay.com to stay close to the conversations shaping global mining and investment.