Africa Forward: Macron’s €23bn Bet in Kenya

France and Kenya co-host the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, shifting from aid to investment. Macron unveils €23bn in energy, AI, port and jobs deals as Kenya touts AfCFTA opportunities and presses for fairer global finance. Protests and critics urge caution. South Africa’s President Ramaphosa skipped the summit, attended by about 30 heads of state, including Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu.

Oil and gas veteran Victor Eromosele weighs in after the UAE’s OPEC exit. UK gilt yields hit a record amid turmoil as four ministers quit, intensifying pressure on Keir Starmer after heavy local-election losses. Trump’s China visit with top US CEOs keeps markets on edge.

Transcript

The Africa Forward Summit convenes key Africa–France stakeholders to secure commitments for a renewed partnership model. President Emmanuel Macron co-hosted the summit in Nairobi on 11–12 May  with Kenyan President William Ruto and more than 2,000 participants—including 30 heads of state, numerous start-ups and senior multinational executives—met to advance an investment-led partnership for innovation and growth. South Africa President Ramaphosa was notably absent. Indeed, a major step pivoting from traditional aid toward private-sector-driven cooperation.

At the summit, French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin unveiled a new “Talent Afrique–France Fast-Track” pilot, which grants eligible African tech entrepreneurs and STEM graduates a 48-hour priority visa appointment at French consulates, with residence permits processed in under a month. Priority appointments will be reserved for major investors, such as Schneider Electric, which announced a €120 million micro-grid plant near Mombasa.

Macron, amid signs of fading influence in some of its former colonies on the continent, said Africa and France were equal partners with shared goals as he announced ​23 billion euros ($27 billion) of investment deals. He also warned against US-China domination arguing that Europe and Africa have a common target to build stronger resilience and autonomy.

Africa’s richest man, Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote, joined other executives from French giants like TotalEnergies and Orange. And CMA CGM pledged €700 million to modernise a terminal at Kenya’s Mombasa port, with further announcements expected in clean energy, AI and more.

Hello, this is global business insights where we bring perspectives that help to navigate the more challenging context. And today we look at efforts to reignite French – African cooperation at a Summit in Kenya.

Kenya is  optimistic that this summit will bring in French investors looking to take advantage of the African Continental free trade area while advancing talks on making the global financial system fairer to heavily indebted African countries. The ​Kenyan president Ruto who is attending the G7 ​summit next month in Evian-les-Bains ⁠at the invitation of France, plans to get wider support for agreements made - such as pushing for global action to improve Africa’s access to credit.

Analysts observed that France’s choice of a non-francophone country to host the summit, is a signal that France is moving “beyond its old comfort zone … after losing ground in its traditional sphere of influence”.  Still, no surprises that there were protests and criticisms … with many warning that Africa should be cautious, and calling to distrust France’s attempt to repackage its Africa policy as more mutually beneficial, on an equal footing, broader, more economic, and less reminiscent of past neocolonialism.   This event could benefit Africa—as stakeholders recognise the context shaping the summit.

Indeed ⁠there is a stronger case for Europe to pivot to Africa … as the US turns away from its traditional allies … wooing China and the Middle East and giving less attention to Africa. But Africa still has vast, untapped growth potential, creating exceptional opportunities for investment and collaboration. This comes especially from integration of markets across the continent … as we see reducing barriers between countries leading to more intra-African ventures.

But analysts warn that a meaningful pact with France requires “shared ownership” from an integrated Africa—something speeches alone won’t deliver. Cross-border business must become frictionless, and regional integration needs to shift from rhetoric to actual transactions. Barriers should fall through customs digitisation, aligned standards, better corridor performance, and stronger governance of border agencies. While the African Continental Free trade area is not failing, it can stall if countries lack the will to implement tougher reforms.   Many processes must be redesigned, and integration will move only as fast as the weakest link in Africa’s trade value chain—though there are infrastructure success stories already.

An example of progress is Nigeria’s National Single Window: phase one of a digital trade platform that streamlines import and export procedures and cuts red tape—now in pilot stages, with plans to scale. The African Development Bank also says the “mega” Abidjan–Lagos corridor has moved into operations with a new governing board.

With possible leadership changes however looming in the UK and France, decisions made at this summit must be robust enough to withstand Europe’s political volatility and any pushback at the G7.

Moreover, the current global climate is less receptive to a perceived “victimhood” narrative; of an Africa seeking special credit relief or reparations and wants instead to see hard self-corrections such as plugging fiscal leakages and pursuing quick focus on credibility-boosting reforms that improve market attractiveness.

While the talk and investment pledges come amid some distrust of the French agenda, some analysts also prefer more focus by Africa on measurable reductions in border clearance time, driven by digitisation and more efficient risk-based controls. Improved synergies can be realised from fewer compliance duplications across markets and better corridor and port performance, where costs to traders are reduced and processes involve far less delays. Also, more work is needed to scale up trade payments systems with  more settlement in African currencies. Plus greater support for small and medium enterprise access to cross-border market opportunities.  All of this must move fast as investors return to Africa, expecting a more business-friendly environment.

Still on Africa, The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals IPO is expected to be Africa’s largest, opening soon on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and potentially cross-listing on other exchanges. It will offer up to 10% of the refinery, valuing it at $40–$50 billion, with an option for dollar-denominated dividends. In Nigeria, NNPCL has signed a refinery-rehabilitation deal with China’s Sanjiang Chemical and Xinganchen Industrial Park. Critics want details on how it differs from past, costly revamps; some argue the refineries should be scrapped or sold outright to capable hands - to avoid previous issues with mismanagement again resurfacing.

Also on Energy markets, Saudi Aramco analysts say about a billion barrels were removed from global supply over the past 2.5 months. This will keep prices elevated for a while, even after any reopening of Hormuz. Delays in shipping flows, locked-in barrels, and depleted stockpiles imply a lingering supply imbalance that could persist for several more months. A fragile ceasefire amid uncertainty on when a peace deal can be struck– is  keeping prices well over $100/bl for brent crude. 

Inflation in the US increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, at 0.6% for the month, and the one-year pace at 3.8% - hurting any case for rate cuts. Analysts are watching how higher gas prices and weakening consumer spending could weigh on a global economy still in the early stages of an uncertain recovery.

The UAE exit from OPEC plus has also reduced the organisation’s market power … as it raised its production targets. it’s also less clear the changes it may need to make to remain compelling for members –where they do not get the quota allocations that they want.

Industry Veteran, Victor Eromosele, Director at the Centre for Petroleum Information in Nigeria comments on some of the latest developments. 

To other developments closely watched …one is Trump’s visit to China and what that could mean for the Iran War, the geopolitics and an uncertain trade environment. The visit, from 13-15 May, is the first to China by a US president in close to a decade - and comes at a pivotal moment for ties between the world's two largest economies.

Also in the UK, after the labour Party suffered a humiliating defeat att recent local elections – PM Keir Starmer is barely clinging on.  The thirty-year gilt yields rose to their highest level since 1998, that means cost of borrowing going up and the pound fell 0.6 per cent against the dollar - reflecting heightened uncertainty. Four cabinet ministers so have resigned to challenge Starmer’s leadership but the PM vows to fight on.

Asian Markets were mixed as investors monitor Trump-Xi meetings, also as Trump signalled a tougher stance on the Iran ceasefire.  Nvidia confirmed that CEO Jensen Huang will join President Trump, Elon Musk and other top US CEOs on the China visit. Markets also weighing latest US inflation data. 

America’s Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, paving the way for nomination as the next chairman this week. 

Well that’s it on this special episode of global business insights. We are now on Spotify, Apple podcasts and most podcast platforms so do please support us. This is Bode ososami, thanks for watching and don’t forget to follow and hit the notification button. Bye Bye