Debating Development in Africa

On Wednesday, I attended the AFRICA Debate in London, where leaders including Ghana’s President Mahama and Nigeria’s Finance Minister discussed the future of development in Africa. Topics ranged from critical minerals and the energy transition to trade and investment. But how much of this is truly new? 

The Africa RED Index, presented by Arnold Ekpe, shows that real progress, beyond the talk, depends on infrastructure, finance, and effective execution. Professor Alim Abubakr also explains why Morocco and Egypt rank highest in structural readiness for development on the Index. This episode moves beyond the rhetoric to examine what Africa must do differently to achieve meaningful growth.

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Transcript

The AFRICA debate event, held last Wednesday at Guildhall in London under the theme “Redefining Partnership: Navigating a World in Transition,” brought together expert perspectives on key issues shaping the continent’s future. Discussions covered financing Africa’s growth, the race for critical minerals, the energy transition, philanthropy, and investment opportunities, including presentations from Ghana’s President, H.E. Dramani Mahama, Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Taiwo Oyedele, and a spotlight on Durban, South Africa.

The event also featured respected industry leaders, including Africa Finance Corporation CEO Samaila Zubairu, alongside panels with executives such as Korede Adenowo of FirstBank UK. Their contributions added useful insights to the discussion and helped clarify how to navigate today’s rapidly changing environment.

I was at the event and tend to agree with Arnold Ekpe, Chairman of the Business Council for Africa, who observed that these conferences often repackage familiar ideas rather than break new ground. With nearly half a century of experience at this sort of events, he would know. What I found most valuable, however, were his remarks on the Africa Real Development (RED) Index, which assessed 54 countries on the drivers of industrialisation. The report highlights practical priorities such as reliable electricity, better roads and rail, stronger banks to finance growth, and a mindset focused on economic expansion. Published by the Business Council for Africa, the index offers a useful framework for industrialisation and reinforces the need for governments and the private sector to work together around clear priorities.

It was striking that countries we hear less about, such as Egypt and Morocco, ranked the highest on the index. That may be a useful reminder that development is driven less by what is said and more by action and measurable results.

I also caught up with Professor Alim Abubakre, a Director at the Business Council for Africa, to explore the RED Index report in more detail and understand what Morocco and Egypt are doing differently.

Hello and welcome to Global Business Insights, where we bring perspectives to help navigate an increasingly complex terrain. Today, we look at the Africa debate event that just held.  

Samaila Zubairu, CEO of AFC, reminded the audience at the Africa debate that foreign capital is never the prime force to building an economy; it plays only a supporting role. On critical minerals, Ipeleng Selele Chairperson Brand South Africa stressed that mining activity must go beyond extraction and further downstream and must positively impact local communities where minerals are found. On trade, the panel concluded that a different shock-proof trade paradigm needs to emerge from rethinking current practices that have not quite benefited the continent. On the energy transition, the importance of a pragmatic approach was reiterated. 

The RED Index, published by the Business Council for Africa, identifies key drivers of industrial transformation, including public-private partnerships, efficient payment systems, and openness to trade and investment. It also points to major barriers such as corruption, rapid population growth, and security challenges. Arnold Ekpe, Chairman of the Business Council for Africa, stressed at the Africa debate event that countries need a growth mindset to achieve double-digit economic expansion that of course is needed for most countries in the continent.

Morocco and Egypt ranked highest in Africa for development readiness. The report also found that only 9 of the 54 countries surveyed were applying the engines of industrialisation with the scale, coherence, and intensity required to deliver strong growth.

Professor Alim Abubakre comments.

Also on Africa, credit rating agency Fitch on Friday upgraded South Africa’s long-term sovereign rating by one notch, from ‘BB-’ to ‘BB’, citing prudent fiscal management despite weak growth and wider economic shocks. In its statement, Fitch said South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio was significantly lower than it had projected when it downgraded the country to ‘BB-’ in 2020. This also comes as many Africa finance ministers say Fitch misreads risk in Africa thus compounding  inability to borrow affordably.

Another potential threat to Africa is the shift to alternatives, first with diamonds, now chocolate. Swiss chocolate giant Barry Callebaut is adding cocoa-free chocolate alternative ChoViva to its commercial portfolio. Barry Callebaut supplies chocolate and ingredients to many of the world’s biggest food and confectionery brands, pushing cocoa-free chocolate from a niche concept into mainstream industrial production…hurting demand for cocoa.

Zimbabwe is working with a Chinese mining group Huayou to build a lithium carbonate plant, pushing downstream into the global electric vehicle supply chain and accelerating the drive to process critical minerals domestically.  The proposed facility converts locally mined lithium concentrate into lithium carbonate, a higher-value battery chemical used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. 

To the US, Wall street remains volatile, the Nasdaq suffered a major daily drop, down more than 4% (that was on Friday) as we saw a broader sell-off driven by weakness in chips makers, artificial-intelligence stocks and a better-than-expected jobs report. American employers added 172,000 jobs in May, with especially strong numbers in leisure and hospitality.  The jobs data eases fears of an economic downturn. America’s manufacturing index also recently hit a four-year high, with factories hiring more workers. Stronger than expected economic activity also raises chances that further inflation could force the US Fed to raise interest rates this year hurting sentiment.

The US says it may take equity stakes in AI companies such as OpenAI so the public can share in the gains. Trump told reporters on Friday that he has been speaking with major AI firms and expects to discuss the proposal further at the White House next week, including with groups such as Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI.

And on oil, analysts are still navigating uncertainty especially around the US-Iran war.  Some have said oil prices would have been much higher but for the fact that European and Asian nations have been dipping heavily into their oil stockpiles. China, the largest oil importer in the world by far, which used to buy about 11 million barrels per day has slashed that down to about 6.5 million barrels a day. That is a 10 year low and less oil imports than they did during COVID. Brent yesterday was over $92 a barrel amid the shaky cease-fire in the Middle East and the on-and-off peace negotiations

Well that’s it on this special weekend episode of global business insights. We are now on Spotify, Apple, Youtube podcasts and most popular platforms where you get your podcasts from. Don’t forget if you are a Youtube subscriber you still need to press the notification button to be notified when episodes are published. This is Bode ososami, thanks for watching. Bye Bye.