Can China the “Dragon” lift Africa?

Can China truly lift Africa—or will it reshape the continent? It can, but Africa’s choices will matter more. Veteran Africa Analyst Jonathan Offei-Ansah, Publisher and Founder Africa Briefing Magazine, says the winners in this game will be those with a strong entrepreneurial mindset, the ability to negotiate from strength, diversified partnerships, disciplined governance and a clear view of both the opportunities and risks—while fiercely protecting their interests.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX spikes over 30% in a historic Wall Street debut. Spacex opened at $150 a share on Nasdaq with Musk’s net worth now roughly $1.05trillion.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister says US and Iran have agreed to text of a US-Iran peace deal. Plus more business headlines. 

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Transcript

China can lift up Africa … but much of it is left to Africa. According to Foreign affairs magazine this week “Across Africa, Chinese state media outlets such CGTN have signed extensive content-sharing agreements with local broadcasters & newspapers, enabling Beijing to distribute prepackaged, pro-Chinese narratives through trusted domestic outlets at scale. Since these efforts are often uncontested, cash-strapped news organizations increasingly rely on free or heavily subsidized Chinese content to fill coverage gaps….” Are Africans being deliberately blinded to risks in dealing with China or are pro-western mindsets exaggerating these risks. Can both be true?    

Meanwhile, the west is not giving up on vast Chinese markets. Nvidia told Chinese clients that its new "Vera" central processors for AI data centres could be available as soon as August and that ​they can begin placing orders. This underscores fresh attempts to revive its rapidly declining fortunes in China, as shipments of its second-most powerful AI chip, the H200, to the country have stalled.

The European Union's ban on public funding for Chinese-made solar inverters could impact over a fifth of new solar capacity in the bloc, as it races to meet climate targets. Brussels argued that Chinese internet-connected inverters supplied could be used to disrupt Europe's power grid and could provide a back ‌door for foreign actors to interfere with or even shut down electricity systems.

Still on China, the US Pentagon reinstated Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to a blacklist of Chinese companies seen as posing a national security risk to the US because of alleged connections to the People’s Liberation Army. The defence department added the groups to its “Chinese military companies” list on Monday - signalling that the US may target them with more punitive measures in the future. 

Experienced and veteran Africa analyst and publisher of Africa Briefing Magazine, Jonathan Offei‑Ansah comments on the entrepreneurial and business mindset needed to adopt in dealing with China.

Hello and welcome to Global Business Insights, where we bring perspectives to help navigate an increasingly complex terrain. Today, China, often typified with the metaphor of a dragon - wise, fierce, determined and able to weaponize massive state subsidies – is entering African markets. What are some of the issues.

To other business news.  Mixed UK macroeconomic releases are not impressing the (British pound) GBP bulls nor are they providing any fresh impetus … as the geoeconomics weigh on sentiment.  The UK Office for National Statistics said the UK economy contracted by 0.1% in April as the impact of the Middle East shock was felt. UK Industrial Production also remained flat as compared to a 0.1% rise expected. The negative readings, however, were offset by a surprisingly 0.4% growth in Manufacturing Production.  UK Defence secretary John Healey resigned followed, hours later, by Al Carns, one of his junior ministers citing Starmer’s unwillingness to adequately fund the Defence Investment Plan.

The war in Iran is not dampening the appetite for huge deals. The rocketry-and-ai colossus - SpaceX starts trading today on the Nasdaq today. - SpaceX yesterday priced the biggest-ever U.S. initial public offering at $135 per share, making Musk’s rocket and spacecraft manufacturer one of the world’s most valuable companies. It raised $75bn, with the firm valued at $1.8trn also potentially making Elon Musk, its founder, the world’s first trillionaire. 

While its thriving satellite unit, Starlink, provides about 60% of the company’s revenues last year, the space industry remains a question mark with potential in space tourism, rare metals extraction and running ai data centres for xai in orbit. Xai today is far from being a cash cow and space technologies are in very early stages – far from where they promise to be.  All this as markets remain volatile given the war in Iran and rising inflation.  Despite many investors warning that SpaceX is grossly overvalued given its finances and issues with its governance structure, the IPO was well oversubscribed.  SpaceX’s first trade indicated around $175 per share ahead of opening.

Musk is also rapidly developing a chip 2 to 3 times better than NVIDIA’s - at 10% of the cost. The chip will be integrated into Tesla’s self-driving capability claimed to be 4 times safer than a human driver. The new chip could deliver a 10 times boost in terms of safety and performance.

The US Dollar saw a lift after latest hot inflation data reinforced a "higher for longer" Federal Reserve interest rate stance. The US Producer Price Index was up 6.5% YoY in May, from 5.7% in April, beating the 6.4% consensus – also the highest level since November 2022. On a monthly basis, the PPI jumped 1.1% against the market expectation of 0.7%. The Fed is increasingly challenged by inflation drifting above its target … more so than it is missing its employment objectives. This raises chances of a rate hike this year.  All eyes on how the Kevin Warsh-led US FOMC next week will play this, given expectations from Trump to keep rates as low as possible.

This week, the European central bank raised interest rates by a quarter point to 2.25 per cent, becoming the first G7 central bank to increase borrowing costs in response to the Middle East energy shock, also bringing rates to a level last seen a year ago. ECB president Christine Lagarde said it was obvious that with a major energy shock lasting longer than expected – the spill over in terms of higher inflation into the wider economy, cannot be ignored. The euro zone’s annual inflation rate was above the ECB’s 2% target for the third consecutive month at 3.2% in May, up from 3% in April. But in Germany, the inflation inched down to 2.6% in May from 2.9%. The ECB also cut its growth forecast for 2026 and 2027. The euro saw gains as analysts see more interest rate hikes later in the year.

And on the energy shock, Brent crude was down over 4% after Trump cancelled planned strikes, and signalled a potential deal as soon as the weekend. Markets will be cautious in digesting this latest bit of news given a previous trend of high uncertainty related to a ceasefire deal. According to Iranian state media, a draft version of the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding includes commitments from the U.S. to lift oil sanctions and from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.  Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that a “final, agreed upon text” of a deal between the U.S. and Iran “has been reached.”

It also remains unclear how quickly and how low oil prices will fall – given that a depleted supply chain requires several months of replenishment to restore normal inventory levels and stability. Still, global stocks are jumping albeit cautiously on signs of a potential deal and oil prices tumbling below $90/bl for brent. 

Again on Africa, in what could be a first for Africa capital markets , ahead of the Dangote Refinery IPO, $1B is being raised through a private placement  at a $39.1 billion valuation. Demand was also reported to be exceeding $2B. The private placement closed on the 10th of June.

In Nigeria, crude oil output rose in May 2026 to 1,530,354 bpd and 170,446 bpd of condensates, totalling 1,700,800 bpd and reinforcing its position as Africa’s largest producer.  May crude production reached 102% of Nigeria’s 1.5mbpd OPEC quota. This was as combined crude and condensate output remained strong, ranging from 1.51 million bpd to 1.86 million bpd. Excluding condensates, May’s 1.53 million bpd crude output was the highest since January 2025’s 1.538mbpd. It was also a 15-month high.

According to the regulator, the Bonny Terminal led production streams with 293,870 bpd, adding that the rise was due to stable operations and no major pipeline or facility outages during the period. Completed turnaround maintenance also improved reliability and production efficiency.

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