Markets Ride the “Tsunami” Bull Run

Group CEO Jamie Dimon has described US markets as a “little tsunami” Bull Run, fuelled by strong earnings, optimism around AI, and a resilient economy. However, risks are building beneath the surface as investors question AI’s long-term potential and central banks shift policy. Could markets be heading for a sharp correction that catches investors off guard? And what happens when the little tsunami finally settles?

Crude oil prices continue to fall, with Brent Standard futures trading below $74 a barrel as supply concerns ease. The US also reassured markets that the Strait of Hormuz will not be tolled.

Nigerian regulators have ordered a halt to marketing for the Dangote Refineries IPO, noting that no application has yet been filed and warning that continued promotion could undermine market integrity. We also cover other international business headlines and more developments in Nigeria’s economy, including an alert from the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria.

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Transcript

Is it time to focus more on market fundamentals and less on hype? As extreme heat triggers life-threatening warnings across the UK and much of Europe, Wall Street has received its own caution from JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who described the current rally as a “little tsunami” bull run. He said markets remain in a difficult to stop resilient phase despite stretched valuations. Strong earnings, sustained AI investment, low unemployment & steady GDP growth may support the rally, but other risks are becoming harder to ignore.

Markets appear to be shrugging off unsettling politics — from Ukraine, Russia, Iran, oil to America’s relationship with China and a shifting world order. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 80% over the past five years, while the Nasdaq is up more than 86%. Even a three-month global oil supply shock, which might normally have crushed sentiment, barely made a dent. Optimism around artificial intelligence and a Wall Street-friendly White House may be helping, but the upside from AI and technology remains highly uncertain.

Today, after a record breaking Spacex IPO – driven by cult-like loyalty - we see major tech stocks in a downturn, as Alphabet and SpaceX shares plunge.  In a single day, Alphabet gave up over $225 billion in market value, SpaceX saw a three-day decline of over $600 billion. If this does not make investors a bit jittery … perhaps nothing will. Investors are struggling to value unfamiliar companies built on uncertain AI capabilities and the even less predictable space industry. Top talent is also moving more freely, adding to the confusion. Recently research scientist Nobel Prize winner John Jumper left Google Deepmind to join AI start-up Anthropic. Also unclear is the effect of Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs on the competitive landscape as players consolidate their financial structures. SpaceX yesterday sold $25 billion in investment-grade bonds to refinance costly debt tied to Musk’s 2022 Twitter acquisition and earlier borrowing used to cover for a rapid cash burn.  A new FED boss Kevin Warsh has scrapped forward guidance, a move driving up Treasury bond yields. Some say we are being set up for an imminent “tech wreck” or an even broader sustained slump.

U.S. stock outlook remain mixed as traders digest Micron Technology’s results amid solid gains from  Consumer staples, health care, real estate, utilities, and financial sectors. Small caps in the US also doing well. The Russell 2000 is up about 37% in the last 12 months. All this as surveys suggest more Americans, since 2022, have seen worsened finances.  

Asian Markets – struggling for direction … also seem to be racing to dizzy heights, as today South Korea’s KOSPI leapt by 4% before receding. Investors in Asia like in the US are equally undecided on whether AI stocks are overpriced and suspect American interest rates might soon rise.

Crude oil prices extended ‌declines as concerns over potential supply disruptions eased.  Brent crude standard dropped over 3% to under $75 per barrel, the lowest levels since the start of the U.S. and Israeli-led war against Iran.  

Safe-haven demand has helped the  U.S. dollar reach a fresh 13-month high against a ​basket of major currencies, as investors repositioned for a possible global tech stock selloff and future FED rate hikes.  Gold is also under $4000 an ounce, the lowest price since November amid the resurgent dollar.

In the UK , the pound is still loosing traction amid political instability following Keir Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister.  The leader in the race to become the next PM, Andy Burnham is reported to be drawing up plans for an aggressive programme of devolution – shifting more power to local communities. Markets are understandably sceptical.

Jamie Dimon’s warning of a market “tsunami” should prompt investors to consider the potential fallout—and avoid being caught in what could be very messy debris – when the waves finally settle .

Hello and welcome to Global Business Insights, where we bring perspectives to help you navigate today’s more complex terrain. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today said the U.S. economy is back on the path to over 3% growth as the Iran war nears conclusion, adding that the US will oversee frozen Iranian funds when released.

Let’s turn to the UK, where unions are pressing for a maximum workplace temperature amid record heat, while businesses and the government push back. The Trade Unions with more than 1,000 people signing up, are calling for a “heat strike” on what could be the year’s hottest day. The Climate Change Committee has backed a legal limit to force better cooling protections, while the TUC wants a 30C cap. The government says it has no plans for such a rule, as businesses warn of higher costs and reduced hiring.

In Germany, the IFO Institute Business Climate Index improved to 85.6 in June, as expected, from 84.9 in May. The Current Assessment Index was at 87, higher than 86.4 estimates and previous reading of 86.0. The Expectations Index also improved to 84.1 from 83.9 in May.

Large companies are laying off amid strong earnings outlook and more generous senior executive pay-for-performance reward structures.  Last April Meta revealed its best first quarter performance in company history as revenue hit $56.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year, also the fastest growth since 2021.  A week before the earnings report, Meta had notified roughly 8,000 employees they were losing their jobs but six weeks before that, it quietly granted six senior executives stock packages that could be worth as much as $921 million each. 

TheEU, Germany and the Netherlands have joinedPax Silica, a U.S.-led alliance aimed at securing artificial-intelligence supply chains amid Chinese competition. The group aims to safeguard supply chains covering critical minerals, semiconductors and related technologies.

Alibabahas sued the Trump administration after being labelled a “Chinese military company” and added to a Pentagon blacklist alongside Baidu. The company says the designation is baseless, arguing that it is governed by an independent board and that the move violates its due-process and free-speech rights.

China’s technology rise continues, with its LineShine supercomputer now named the world’s most powerful system for the first time since 2017, overtaking America’s El Capitan. Powered entirely by Central processing units rather than the Graphic Processing units commonly used in supercomputers, LineShine is designed for medical research and advanced modelling.

China is expanding its African footprint. Kenya has just signed a $1.2 billion deal with China Road and Bridge Corporation to expand Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. The project will nearly triple annual passenger capacity to 22 m. A previous agreement with India’s Adani Group was scrapped afterits founder’s U.S. indictment.

Still in Africa, WeLight has raised €27 million from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and founding shareholders to expand its solar mini-grid operations into Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Founded in 2018 by Axian, Sagemcom and Norfund, the company already runs nearly 190 mini-grids in Madagascar and Mali.

Afreximbank’s African Trade Heatmaps 2026 says Africa traded more within the continent in 2025 than with any external bloc except China and the EU.  Intra-African trade now exceeds trade with the Americas, the Middle East and the Gulf, but still represents only about 15% of total trade, constrained by weak industrial capacity.

Finally, in Nigeria, external reserves reached $51.04 billion in June, their highest level in about 17 years, supported by stronger FX inflows, reforms and improved liquidity. The rise has boosted investor confidence and exchange-rate stability, though analysts  warn about high debt, heavy debt-service costs and reliance on portfolio inflows, urging for more non-oil exports and foreign direct investment.

On the debt structure, Fitch rating agencies joined the International Moneatary fund (IMF) chorus to  warn that Nigeria’s proposed $5 billion Total Return Swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank could hide sovereign debt risks and complicate future restructuring as it only obscures the true scale and conditions of public debt. The deal which lowers borrowing costs refinances expensive debt by pledging naira bonds as collateral for hard-currency liquidity also raising  transparency, governance and rating concerns.

Still in Nigeria, where the latest June world bank GDP 2026 growth projection retains a reduced 4.1% compared to its October 2025 forecast of 4.4%, the Manufacturers Association is warning that the sector faces severe funding pressure.  Credit to the sector sank 22.5%, from N8.53 trillion in December 2024 to N6.61 trillion in December 2025, one of the steepest contractions among major sectors.   MAN Director-General Segun Ajayi-Kadir said the squeeze threatens success of Nigeria’s 2025 Industrial Policy, adding that high prime lending rates averaging 24.4% and maximum rates of 33.8% have made expansion, technology upgrades and capacity utilisation near impossible. MAN contrasted Nigeria’s contraction with India’s 9.6% industry-credit growth and Vietnam’s projected 19% to 20% credit expansion for processing and manufacturing.

Amid a media blitz and very positive interest in the Dangote Refineries, Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission has ordered an immediate halt to marketing for a purported Dangote Petroleum Refinery offering, warning that no IPO application has been filed or approved. The regulator said ads, digital campaigns and investment solicitations were promoting refinery shares and seeking advance subscriptions.  Dangote Petroleum Refinery has repeatedly said it has not authorised any IPO marketing, describing the reports and solicitations as unauthorised and inaccurate. The SEC warned that such promotions, including requests to pre-fund accounts or secure allocations, could undermine market integrity.

Well that’s it on this episode of global business insights. We are now on Spotify, Apple, YouTube podcasts and most popular platforms where you get your podcasts from. Remember to select the notification button if you subscribe on YouTube.  This is Bode Ososami. Thanks for watching. Bye Bye.