Halftime on the Geoeconomic Pitch

At halftime in 2026, Global Business Insights reviews the geoeconomic winners and losers. From SpaceX, Nvidia, AI, China and Africa’s integration to wars, inflation, and political shifts, this episode suggests that technology sovereignty, global trade fragmentation and cost-of-living politics may be the key drivers defining the global second half ahead.

Ajibola Olomola, Partner at KPMG, also shares his views on Nigeria’s sustained economic and stock market growth in the first half of the year. He however notes that more must be done to maintain public buy-in while reforms take root and deliver broader benefits. How did you view the first half of the year for business?

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Transcript

As the World Cup captivates football fans with teams battling through each round for the ultimate prize, another contest is playing out on the geoeconomic field. As we reach mid-year and the halfway point of the 2020s, it is apt to take a halftime pause and ask - who is winning, who is losing, and how might strategies shift in the second half of the year—and the rest of the decade?

Unlike football, with its fixed rules and referees, the rules-based geoeconomic order is fading, and it is increasingly unclear who—if anyone—is officiating. At halftime in 2026, the winning 11 includes plays such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Jensen Huang’s Nvidia, the artificial intelligence era, Aliko Dangote, a rising China, Aerospace and defence industries, non-Middle East oil exporters, Wall Street, the US dollar, socialists gaining ground in US politics and Africa’s economic integration.

SpaceX, powered by Starlink and reusable rockets, is opening up space and positioning itself for major US government contracts as the race shifts to low Earth orbit.  Nvidia, led by Jensen Huang, remains the flagship supplier of must-have GPUs and the vital engines in the AI world.  After early hype and more of spend and promise, AI revenues are accelerating as the technology reshapes productivity and strategic advantage across sectors such as defence, finance, and medical research.

In the first half of 2026, Aliko Dangote defied the odds by helping shift Nigeria from crude exporter to refined-product exporter—a major step for African industrialisation.  China is scoring goals using overcapacity, EVs, batteries, solar, ports, BRICS+, and non-dollar trade to press ahead as the fragmented West plays defence.

The defence and aerospace sector is another emerging star on the pitch. The European Union’s investment arm is lending $3.4bn to Airbus to support defence investments and reduce reliance on the US and China. Airbus is also seeking approval to merge with Leonardo and Thales, two European defence firms, to expand its presence in the space industry.

Other first-half winners include Wall Street, lifted by volatility, liquidity, AI enthusiasm, and strong trading activity; non-Middle East oil exporters such as the US, Guyana, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Nigeria, and Angola, which are gaining market share as Middle East supply remains constrained; the US dollar, which remains dominant despite de-dollarisation talk; and Africa’s integration drivers, with AfCFTA, cross-border trade, and infrastructure corridors gathering momentum.

Ajibola Olomola, Partner at KPMG, shares his perspective on the first half of the year and the key forces shaping it. As he focuses on the Nigerian economy, Ajibola says we are not out of the woods, and Nigerians are rightly concerned about the impact of these reforms on the man in the street. A lot of more thinking he says is required to keep Nigerians onside while the reforms are allowed to take root for the overall benefit of all citizens.

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Let’s also look at the losing plays -  ie those on the backfoot so far in the first half? First – casualties of war, citizens in Iran, Ukraine, and Russia who suffered from attacks, sanctions, capital flight, infrastructure damage, development inertia and heavy human costs. Africa’s poor also lost out, as food and fuel inflation, debt burdens, and weak job creation held back inclusive growth and poverty rose.

A divided America weakened its long-term planning and vision, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer retired as he succumbed to a crippling with stagflation and limited fiscal room. The question is whether Andy Burnham’s regional-devolution agenda offers a stronger alternative.

South African xenophobia is another own goal, undermining investor confidence and regional integration needed for the continent’s renaissance. Other losers include central banks battling sticky inflation, the DRC facing Ebola amid aid cuts, and Europe’s record heatwave, which is hitting productivity, agriculture, and public health.

The final losing players are movements losing momentum: anti-corruption NGOs, climate activism, and DEI, Diversity Equity and Inclusion, especially as US companies roll back commitments in this space.

At halftime, some players need new strategies, though many trajectories may not change. The second half is also likely to centre on three main themes.  First is technology sovereignty across AI, chips, and energy, illustrated by China’s tighter export controls on Japanese entities. Second is the balance between fragmentation and integration: To watch includes what happens with US-China trade tensions, BRICS, UK-EU ties, and how a fragile US-Iran deal could reshape Middle East power dynamics.

The biggest potential global game-changer in 2026 remains the US midterms. Globally, the third theme is the rise in cost-of-living politics, as affordability in housing, energy, and food becomes the decisive political lever – that makes all the difference to voters whether in New York or in Lagos.

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a fresh record close as a fragile pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran lifted sentiment and US indexes are set to make strong quarter on quarter gains. 

The price of gold was however down below $4,000 a troy ounce as it headed for its worst quarterly performance in over a decade. We also saw a striking rotation as the magnificent 7 mega tech. stocks were down more than $2.3tn of value this month as investors favoured the chipmakers more likely to benefit from the huge capital spend in the tech. sector.

Today, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed in afternoon trade, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight. Japan's Nikkei is ‌however set for a record rise of more than 38% for the quarter while South Korea's chipmaker-driven KOSPI was set for a spectacular second-quarter rise of nearly 71% having more than doubled year-to-date.

Analysts now say the oil market's worries about war in Iran have receded into memory – much quicker than anyone thought - with benchmark Brent crude futures at pre-war prices of $72.5 a ​barrel and down over 20% in June, despite the uncertainty around an interim ceasefire.

Well that’s it on this special episode of global business insights as we close the first half of the year. We are now on Spotify, Apple, YouTube podcasts and most popular platforms where you get your podcasts from. This is Bode Ososami. Thanks for watching. Bye Bye.