M6 Capital Daily Market Podcast

Daily Market Podcast Jun 16

M6 Capital Mngt

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0:00 | 6:04
SPEAKER_00

Good morning and happy Tuesday to everyone. This is Chris Myers with M6 Capital Management with our daily market letter on Tuesday, June the 16th. Walking in this morning, December corn is up a quarter at 442. November beans are down 8.5% at 11.26.5. And August crude is taking it on the chin again. It's down 215 at 77.30. As for corn news this morning, USGA's weekly crop condition ratings yesterday uh increased 1.26%, rated good to excellence. And I've got a chart below. You can see on the bottom of page one that this is right at the 20-year average. So the crop is normal-ish. Also, yesterday, SP Global, which is the old Sparks companies of the old informa group, they issued their farmer survey and they increased U.S. corn acres 700,000 acres from what USDA published in their March intentions. Meanwhile, U.S. corn exports last week were 64 million bushels. This is well above the 52 million bushel pace that we need to reach USDA's export forecast. So the export story remains the same. Global corn demand is huge, and U.S. corn export demand remains record large. I've got a table uh to the right on page one that shows export basis. Uh you've got U.S. Gulf at 95 cents versus Argentina at 90 cents. Uh Argentina is a little bit cheaper, obviously. Brazil at $1.15 and Ukraine at $1.75. So obviously, Argentina is a little bit cheaper in the U.S., but Argentina can't do it all. Uh US remains well below Brazil. Uh even with Brazil's second crop harvest underway, their export prices remain very expensive. And basically, this is accumulation of a poor crop and big ethanol demand for corn in Brazil. So we may not see very much corn flowing, uh, export corn flowing from Brazil this summer. Also, Ukraine at $1.75 over is way too expensive. And with their ongoing fight with Russia, they're very unreliable. So you can pretty much count them out for right now. PW prices are competitive. Uh we uh we are at least are getting some Asian business off the Pacific uh because you've got uh shorter time period and a cheaper freight rate to Asia. So we are getting some Asian business also. So the summary here is US export corn exports remain massive. The crop is in good shape, planet area is getting bigger, not smaller. So today the market limps along looking for a direction. I still remain longer-term bullish, but we cannot rally until either China shows up or we get some kind of weather issue in the U.S. And right now we have neither. All right, moving on to soybeans. Crude oil is back under pressure again this morning with this U.S.-Iran uh deal seemingly uh resolved, at least for the time being. Uh, this is keeping soybean oil and soybeans on the defensive this morning. The U.S. soybean crop condition ratings increased one point yesterday to 66% rated good to excellent. Again, like corn, this is right on the 20-year average. Uh also yesterday, NOPA, who's a National Oil Seed Process Association, issued their monthly crush. May soybean crush was up 8% from last year and is a record for the month of May. But with U.S. meal exports slowing down rapidly, this means more meal will need to find a home domestically. As for acres, SP Global, their farmer survey increased soybean plantings also, but we are passing prevent plant dates at many places across the country, and we have quite a few states that are still planting soybeans. So to me, U.S. soybean acres remain a massive question mark. The near-term outlook for soybeans could be quite erratic. The U.S. crop is doing good. U.S. soybean exports right now are stinko, suggesting that we trade sideways to lower. But if China follows through on the 25 million ton purchase, then exports pick up and we could easily rally CBOT soybeans. But then longer term, unless we have some major crop issue, the world has plenty of soybeans between US and South America. And let's not forget the increase in plantings of other oil seeds around the world. So longer term, it's hard to be bullish. So the net effect of that is if we get a rally in soybeans uh from China coming in and buying, that's probably a rally to sell. As far as weather goes, we continue to have decent weather uh across the U.S. The mid-south continues uh to get uh plentiful rains, um mid-south and the center, the the heart of the Corn Belt from uh Missouri across to Illinois, Indiana area. But there is one thing I want to highlight is uh western Kansas down into Oklahoma, Texas, Pan Atlanta area, just continues to get uh pounded with these these super hot temperatures. Um tomorrow afternoon you're supposed to be high, seeing highs 102 to 105, 106 areas. So, again, not good for for young growing crops uh in that area. That's it for today. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.