M6 Capital Daily Market Podcast

Daily Market Podcast Jun 23

M6 Capital Mngt

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0:00 | 5:05
SPEAKER_00

Good morning. This is Chris Myers of ZM6 Capital Management with our daily market letter on Tuesday, June 23rd. Walking in this morning, December corn is up one and three quarters at 441 and a quarter. November beans are up five at 11.46 and a half. And June crude is up 10 cents at 74 even. As for corn news this morning, uh weekly U.S. corn crop ratings were steady at 68% rated good to excellent. Uh stated with last week. And I've got a chart on the bottom of page one showing that uh the corn ratings are basically right at the 20-year average. Most states are at or above an average crop rating for the state, with a couple of exceptions. Ohio is too wet, uh, Louisiana is too wet, and then you've got South Carolina and on one side that's too dry, and Nebraska and Colorado on the other side that are both too dry. Uh, upcoming weather is mostly non-threatening in the U.S. Um, I do have a uh map on page two that we'll talk about in a minute about uh Illinois. There's a part of Illinois that we've gotten way too much rain, but that's not a big deal uh quite yet. Moving south, the second corn crop harvest is underway in Brazil with harvest now at 11% complete. That is right at two weeks behind average. Um, we still expect a poor crop there due to their hot, dry uh weather conditions during filling. The last several years, Brazil has represented around 20% of global corn exports in July and around 40% in August and September. When that crop comes off, they tend to dominate global trade, is the story there. Well, this year, Brazilian corn exports will be far, far less. So it keeps U.S. corn exports good for a much longer time. As of this morning, U.S. Gulf corn and Argentina corn values are basically equal value, and Brazil is quite a bit more expensive and non-competitive. So, again, U.S. corn exports stay back. Uh the CBOT corn market certainly just it does not trade like it wants to rally like now. It seems like the path to least resistance is steady to lower with no major U.S. crop problems. But I fully expect China to come in and buy 10 plus million tons of U.S. corn. If and when that happens, CBOT corn should rally quite a bit. So it looks like we trade steady to lower until that happens, and then we're off to the races. Hard to trade a market like that. It's kind of like riding a roller coaster in the dark, not sure what comes around the next corner. Moving on to soybeans, weekly U.S. soybean crop ratings were steady at 66%, rated good to excellent. Um, again, I've got a chart in there. You can see that that is just barely above the 20-year average. Uh, I think it's like one and a half points above the average. Uh, CBOT meal continues to hover around recent lows. As for U.S. meal export business this morning, Argentine and Brazilian meal prices are both $30 to $35 a ton cheaper than U.S. Gulf meal. So U.S. meal export business continues to just slip slide away. Argentine and Brazilian crush rates are huge, with each nation having a new record-large soybean crop. So crush is going to be big for quite a while. As far as CBOT oil, uh, soybean oil, it has rallied quite a bit off of Friday's lows. U.S. biofuel demand is huge for soybean oil right now. So that leaves CBOT soybeans uh looking for a direction. Bean oil is firm, meal is not, the U.S. crop is doing okay, but Chinese demand for soybeans could show up any day. Makes for a volatile market. As for weather, we continue to get decent rains across the center of the country, uh, include from Kansas, uh, Missouri, all the way across to Ohio. Um, so really we don't have any major crop issues in the U.S. with one exception, and it's not major today, but it's something we need to watch. Uh, I've got a map on this uh on page two showing that there is a part of uh central, maybe north central Illinois that so far this month has received 8 to 12 inches of rain. This is too much. Uh, we've already got people talk up there talking about their word that they're leaching out nutrients out of the soil. You know, whether that happens or not, it's hard to say uh on a grand scale, but we need to watch this area. This is this area needs dry weather. They don't need continued big rains. If they continue to get big rains, then this will become a problem down the road. That's it for today. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.