M6 Capital Daily Market Podcast

Daily Market Podcast Jun 25

M6 Capital Mngt

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0:00 | 5:30
SPEAKER_00

Good morning. This is Chris Myers with M6 Capital Management on Thursday, June 25th with our daily market letter. Walking in this morning, December corn is up three quarters of a cent at 434 and three quarters. November beans are up four and a quarter at 1139 and a quarter. August crude is down 50 cents at 69.80 this morning. As for corn news, speculators continue to sell more and more CBOT corn contracts. Today, they have accumulated a short position in the neighborhood of 75,000 contracts. Why do we care? Well, next week, on Tuesday, USDA will issue its June acreage report and its June 1 stocks report. This is typically a pretty volatile day for CBOT grain markets. That's next Tuesday. There are some, like SP Global, who did a farmer survey that estimate corn planted area increased 700,000 acres from USDA's last acreage estimate in March. But others, like Farm Bureau, who also did a farmer survey, estimate that corn plantings were down 1.2 million from USDA's March estimate. Personally, I think we lost acres in some dry areas like Kansas, Colorado. We added some acres in fast planted states like Iowa and Minnesota. Net net, I don't see corn acres changing very much from USDA's March estimate. But that's three very different opinions, and only one of those will be right next Tuesday. With the speculators having a decent short, if this report is bullish, such as acres going down, then we rally pretty quickly. Also, U.S. ethanol production continues to be decent. Ethanol crush margins in the U.S. are still very strong. U.S. weather remains non-threatening today. We've got rain system coming across the center of the corn belt. We do have some warm temperatures coming in over the weekend and early part of next week, mainly focused out west. Those are on page two. But as of this morning, we still have no new news on China. So until we get these USDA reports out of the way next week, we likely chop around and CBOT corn just does nothing. As for soybean news, typically in this June report, if we gain corn acres, then we lose soybean acres, and vice versa. If you take the same two groups that we mentioned with corn, SP Global, and both of these did farmer surveys, SP Global has soy acres going down slightly, Farm Bureau has soybean acres going up slightly. Today, the average market guess is for soybean acres to be up about 500,000 acres from USTA's March number. The big shock to the soybean market would be if soybean acres are down. But let's look further beyond this report. Brazil hard this spring, Brazil harvested a record soybean crop. Argentina's crop was close to record large. If we just go back and for sake of argument, let's use USDA's March soybean plantings, which was up 3.5 million from a year ago. Okay. If we take that as a starting point and we use a trend type yield in the US, then we also end up with a record large sorbing crop in the U.S. And I've got a chart at the bottom of page one that I total Brazil, Argentina, U.S. And it clearly shows that combined production between these three is a new record large number. And if you look around the world, soybean production from these three is growing faster than global soybean demand is growing. So unless we have some major crop issue, or unless this report from USDA next week is bullish soybeans for some reason, then it gets it gets to be pretty hard to be bullish longer term. Sure, if China comes in and buys 25 million tons of U.S. beans like we think they're going to, then we'd rally. But longer term, unless we have some major U.S. crop issue, I believe rallies are to be sold. Moving on to weather, uh, like I mentioned earlier, we've got a decent system uh the next several days coming across from Nebraska, Kansas, all the way across to Ohio, across the center of the country. Uh following that, uh, weather goes to normal-ish to maybe a little bit below normal precip uh early next week. But we've got quite a few days of pretty hot temperatures coming in, starting on Sunday and lasting well into late next week. We've got, and these temperatures are 90s across the mid-south and uh 90s to 100, even up to 103, 104 in the plain states from Texas all the way up to South Dakota. So we need to watch those as we go into the weekend. What does that look like for early next week? That's it for this morning. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.