M6 Capital Daily Market Podcast

Daily Market Podcast Jun 30

M6 Capital Mngt

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0:00 | 5:37
SPEAKER_00

Good morning. This is Chris Myers with AM6 Capital Management with our daily market letter on Tuesday, June 30th. Walking in this morning, December corn is down one and a quarter at 428 and three quarters. November soybeans are down three and a quarter at 11.35 and three quarters. Excuse me. We have USDA reports today. Uh at 11 o'clock. Uh USDA will issue its June acreage report and its June 1 green stocks report. I've got the average market guesses on the top of page one today. And the acreage report, just because we've gotten several questions about this. This is partly a survey of farmers. And if you're not done, what are you intending on planting? And second, is this is uh enumerators going out to randomly selected fields and saying, okay, what is planted in this field and how many acres is that? Um so this is the biggest survey uh between the enumerators uh in the field visits and the farmer surveys. This is the biggest uh survey that USDA uh does the entire year. So uh that comes out at 11 o'clock. When those uh numbers come out, I will put out my uh thoughts on those and update uh some charts to send those out pretty quickly thereafter. As far as corn news today, uh yesterday, CBOT green markets collapsed along with metals, along with cattle markets. Um it was just a broad scale, uh let's just sell everything yesterday. And I'll be honest, I did not see the corn, the U.S. uh corn market breaking hard like it did yesterday at all. Uh the market really seems to be focused only on U.S. weather, which today is completely non-threatening. Uh USTA's condition ratings yesterday declined 1.267% red good to excellent. This is right at an average crop rating for this time of year. Meanwhile, last week's U.S. corn exports were massive at 70 million bushels versus 49 million bushels that we need to be doing each week to meet USTA's export forecast. So corn export business continues to be huge. CBFT futures are trading very differently than Matif corn futures in Europe. With the ongoing drought, and we have some weather maps on page two, uh, the Matif corn futures rallied yesterday and they rallied again last night. Matter of fact, Matif corn futures are now trading the highest price in nearly two years. Back in the US, uh speculators seem to be plowing into new short positions in CBFT corn. I personally cannot imagine why they would want to do this, but nevertheless, here they are. Today's USD reports should make for very volatile markets today. And again, as soon as these numbers come out, I will send out updates. Moving on to soybeans with no new Chinese purchases and no threatening U.S. weather. CBFT soybean futures dropped 17 cents yesterday. USDA's crop condition ratings declined 1.26% rated good to excellent. And much like corn, that is right at an average rating for this time of year. I've got charts for corn and bean condition ratings on the bottom of page one. Uh, meanwhile, in Argentina, the wage negotiation at crush plants is reportedly going nowhere. If they do go on strike, the U.S. instantly gets some meal export demand shifted back up here. So we need to watch for that. As for the USDA reports today, the acreage number for soybeans is by far the most important number. The at least for beans, the market is expecting U.S. soybean acres to increase from the March estimate. If that is the case, then we are headed towards very plentiful supplies of soybeans between the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina. If acres decline, that could be a very different conversation. Moving on to weather, um, the next couple of days, we've got a system going across the very farther northern part of the corn belt, going across uh a little bit in North Dakota, but mainly Minnesota, Wisconsin, and then and the rest of the Corn Belt has very little rain uh until we get into early next week, and we've got a system coming across uh southern areas. The wet areas of Illinois and Indiana kind of get a break for the next 10 days, which to be honest with you, they need. So that corn crop is going down at an astronomical rate. That's it for this morning. Again, I'll send out uh an update, updated emails at 11 o'clock when USTA's numbers come out. Thanks for listening. We'll talk to you later.