M6 Capital Daily Market Podcast

Daily Market Podcast Jul 6

M6 Capital Mngt

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0:00 | 4:53
SPEAKER_00

Good morning. This is Chris Myers with M6 Capital Management with our daily market letter on Monday, July 6th. Hope everybody had a great 4th July weekend. We got a lot to talk about this morning. Walking in today, we've got December corn up 13 cents at 454 and a quarter. We've got November beans up 33 and a half at 1181 and a half. August crude is unchanged at 6870. Start with corn this morning. The corn market is higher, excuse me, on U.S. weather forecast. Beginning this upcoming weekend, a high pressure system builds over Colorado, Kansas area. And then we go into a two-week period of hot dry weather. And that will be right in the middle of corn pollination. And speculators are short a lot of corn somewhere in the neighborhood of 100,000 contracts this morning. And let's not forget that the U.S. corn crops are, I'm sorry, not US, the EU corn crops are getting hammered by hot, dry weather for the last several weeks. I've got a chart at the bottom of page one showing French corn crop ratings. It's the only country in Europe that releases this data, and by the way, they're the largest corn producer in Europe. The crop ratings have cratered the last two weeks, and they are now the lowest crop rating in 10 years. That corn crop in France was 16% pollinated as of last Friday. So France goes uh into their pollination time period being bone dry with a hot, dry weather forecast going forward. Not good. But I don't think the market is really worried about France right now. I believe the market should be concerned about France because this directly impacts U.S. corn export demand. But this morning the market is much more focused on U.S. weather. And we all know weather forecasts can change, and they will change 100 times before we get to next weekend. But this morning, uh, we have this forecast that we have to deal with. I'm still longer-term bullish CBOT corn. We need to closely watch this weather. If we do end up being hot and dry the next several weeks, the market will continue to rally to continue to rally, sorry, and speculators will blow out of their short positions. If you remember back to arguments that we were making two months ago, we stated that this year was a year that we have zero room for corn crop issues. Well, as of this morning, we have crop condition crop issues in the U.S. and the EU that we have to work with. Moving on to soybeans, um, the soybean market, not only do we have hot, dry U.S. weather forecasts, but we also have the Chinese that continue to check soybean prices at U.S. ports. And late last week, the Chinese Minister of Commerce stated that China needs to lower or possibly remove tariffs on U.S. soybeans. This was fully discussed during Trump's last meeting in Beijing, but China just never followed through. So the soybean market today is worried about U.S. weather and is somewhat hopeful for some Chinese business. But China is obviously dragging their feet. Meanwhile, we do have China uh continuing to push its military vessels closer and closer to Taiwan. It's almost like they're testing to see what the Taiwan or U.S. military will do in response. So we really don't know how this is going to end. I remain in the camp that rallies in CBOT soybeans should be sold. But I'm not interested in selling the first 40, 40 to 50 cent rally. I think we give this market room to run here for a little while. Moving on to weather, we have got a system up in Minnesota, Wisconsin area the next several days, and then another system that goes across, say, central Tennessee up towards uh Virginia, DC area. Once that moves through, we've basically got two weeks of pretty open weather in the center of the country. And I've got some maps on page two showing high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. We've got 100 degree uh temperatures from Texas all the way up to uh South Dakota area. They build and stay there for several days starting this weekend. And then once we get into early next week, those high temperatures migrate east into parts of Iowa and um uh Missouri. And then on the bottom of page two, I've got a chart showing where this high pressure system is setting up next Monday. It's basically centered over uh eastern part of Colorado, western Kansas area. So this is something that we really need to keep an eye on. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.