The GIST of Govt IT

An Apache Down. An ASV Up: Crossing the Rubicon for Autonomous Warfare

Season 1 Episode 10

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In Episode 10 of The GIST of Govt IT, Brian and Sean are joined by David Hutchins, Director of Naval Systems and Defense Technology at Forecast International, fresh off SOF Week in Tampa to discuss the pervasiveness of autonomous systems and platforms that is changing calculus of warfare. David, a Marine Corps veteran who enlisted at 17, walks through the moment autonomous warfare crossed the Rubicon. The conversation digs into the cat-and-mouse evolution of counter-drone tech in Ukraine, why the LCS may finally have found its purpose in de-mining the Strait of Hormuz, the supply chain reality of mass-producing autonomous systems, the role of contested logistics and modular open architectures, and the upcoming World Cup. Plus the ever creative tactics of Marines in the field and how Sean once used pantyhose to keep sand out of IT systems when he was down range.

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RESOURCES MENTIONED IN THIS EPISODE

Featured Guest
- David Hutchins, Director of Defense Technology and Naval Systems, Forecast International
- Forecast International
- Defense & Security Monitor (Forecast's research blog) 

Forecast International Related Resources                                 

- Strait of Hormuz Under Threat of Mines, Are Literal Combat Ships the Solution
- A New DAWG in the Fight: The Pentagon's $54B Bet on Autonomous Warfare
- Safeguarding the World Cup: The Critical Role of Counter Drone Systems


Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) Coverage
- DefenseScoop on the FY27 DAWG budget
- Task & Purpose on the $54B DAWG ask
- The Hill analysis on the autonomous warfare pivot
- SOUTHCOM Autonomous Warfare Command (SAWC)

Key Events Referenced
- SOF Week 2026
- Maneuver Warfighter Conference (Fort Benning, GA)


The Strait of Hormuz Helicopter Rescue
- AH-64 Pilots Rescued by Uncrewed Surface Drone (BBC)
- Saronic Corsair USV platform overview

Unmanned Naval Systems Discused
- SailDrone (Coast Guard partner, Great Lakes & North Atlantic)
- US Coast Guard Coastal Sentinel program


Drone & Counter-Drone Programs Referenced
- Project Maven (DoD AI-enabled targeting)
- DoD Drone Dominance program

World Cup 2026 Counter-UAS Funding
- DHS Counter-UAS resources: https://www.cisa.gov/topics/physical-security/unmanned-aircraft-systems-uas
- Counter-UAS for World Cup


Counter-Drone Technology & Standards
- FAA Drone Regulations & Pilot Licensing
- FAA Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) rules


The Hosts & Show
- Swish
- GIST 360

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CONNECT WITH US

Got an idea for a future episode? Want to be a guest? Let us know.

Brian Lake - blake@swishdata.com

Sean Applegate - sapplegate@swishdata.com

Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or gist360.com.


Autonomous Warfare Hits The Battlefield

Brian Lake

The recent military conflict with Iran has laid bare a stark truth. Autonomous warfare isn't theoretical anymore. In early June, two Apache helicopter pilots were shot down over the Strait of Hormuz. Who rescued them? Not humans, but rather an unmanned autonomous surface vessel, something that has never been done before. And if a thirty-six thousand dollar Iranian drone can take down a $300 million US radar system, that changing calculus demands new thinking, new approaches, and new systems. Today we dig into drones fighting drones, attributable swarms, the private sector supply chain ecosystem, and a whole host of other autonomous topics. So to figure out who's got the upper hand and how the U.S. military maintains the operational advantage on this rapidly changing battleground, you know what we have to do.

SPEAKER_03

Let's get down to the gist of it.

Meet David Hutchins, Defense Analyst

Brian Lake

Hey Sean, how are you doing today, bud? Doing great, Brian. Sean, uh, you know, I love how we always close your open with an old marine, but today we got a youngish or younger Marine in the studio with us today. So I'm really excited about the interplay and the war stories you guys are going to have. So welcome, uh, David Hutchins. Nice to have you. David is the director of naval systems and defense technology at Forecast International. David, uh, really glad to have you. Why don't you give the folks back home a little bit about who you are, what's your background, what you're doing at Forecast International, and what we're gonna talk about today.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, absolutely. Well, thanks for having me. Uh, it's a pleasure to be here. And I appreciate the introduction as a young-ish Marine. Like I'll take it. When I enlisted, I was I was actually 17. So it's been a few years since those days. Uh I wouldn't say I'm as young anymore, but I'll take it. Um, but anyways, yeah, happy to be on the podcast. Um, like you said, uh I'm the director of Naval Systems and Defense Technologies. So my day-to-day is keeping up with the market on what's happening, um, especially in the autonomous, unmanned sector, trying to forecast out that market. That's the Forecast and Forecast International. Um, and just trying to stay abreast of what's what's going on in the market and keeping our readers in the Trevor Burrus.

Brian Lake

And just so folks that don't maybe don't know, talk to us about Forecast International as a whole. What's their mission? What are they kind of driving into space here?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah. So Forecast is over a 50-year-old company that started out as uh an aerospace and defense company, but now we've um we've expanded into basically all military systems. And you can think about it like forecasting the weather, but it's really more about forecasting who's going to buy what systems when and for how much money. So we collect a lot of data and make insights on who are who's going to purchase those systems and when, for how much money, like I said. But then we also look at military markets to include, of course, the United States uh military market and what those budget numbers are looking like and where the priorities are. So yeah, that's really it in a nutshell. I could talk about that for a lot longer, but I know we got a few more things to do.

Brian Lake

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So so just for for context for folks uh heat listening to the podcast, you know, and hopefully you check out uh some of the social shorts. David and I met each other at Soft Week, and uh we have similar hairlines uh to say the least. So it's a little more well-revealed than needless to say, we were both like suffering from sunstroke being outside at Soft Week. It's it's hot, it's in Tampa, it's 97 degrees, pretty much like it is here in DC today. Uh but and we were outside, you're watching demonstrations and you're walking around. So I'm glad that we started chatting a little bit. So glad to have you today. Excited to have two Marines uh here to chat about what we're gonna talk about. But I mean, it really is. David, we when we were at Soft Week, Autonomous, it was. I mean, I feel like we've crossed the Rubicon, right? It's it is it is no longer theoretical, it is, it is no longer just you know, just a few different uh drones out there. It is on the air, ground, sea, every booth, an entire ecosystem is being built around it. So talk to us a little bit about in your role, what when did you really see the moment the chasm was crossed here and and and everything has been and and of course we're obviously in a in a military conflict in Iran where where drones and autonomous systems are at the forefront. So talk to us a little about what like where where'd the chasm get crossed? What are you seeing right now? What really kind of struck out at you at uh in Tampa this

The Moment Drones Became Operational

Brian Lake

year?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah. Like you said, it was it was hot. I think it was above 100 degrees sitting out there watching the demos. Yeah, and just watching those demos, it's incredible to see the Special Operations Forces work in unison with a lot of the unmanned tech that that we have. And like you say, it's it's everywhere, right? You walk that show floor, or really any show floor this year, there's drones, uh USVs, unmanned surface vessels, UUVs, unmanned undersea vessels. Uh drones are everywhere. Um, I think the first time it really clicked for me, more than just seeing them on display, was attending um the Maneuver Warfighter Conference in Georgia last year and getting to watch soldiers do a demonstration with these, with these drones. It was really something special. So you're not just seeing industry like flying them around a show floor. You're seeing a soldier navigating a first-person view drone over uh a battlefield. You're seeing a UGV or an unmanned ground vehicle with the 50 cow on it, patrolling alongside soldiers as they they took notional uh contact. And then a soldier popped behind that UGV, get on the 50 cow, and start laying down covering fire while a drone flew overhead and dropped a simulated grenade. I think at that point I was like, oh wow, like this is happening right now. We're integrating these systems actively. And this looks so different than when I enlisted in 2009 when you had, you know, your M16 or your M4, whatever it was, and and uh and a will to live and the guy next to you. But it's a little bit different now. Yeah.

Sean Applegate

Oh, yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Brian and I were telling, I was I was telling a little war story maybe yesterday, but I was saying, hey, I I worked in Guanaco back in 1999, probably. And there was a group called the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory there. You might be familiar with them. Oh yeah. David. And at the time I I I didn't work on the program, but I you get to see the toy sitting around, and they had a styrofoam delta wing remote control air, you know, I don't know if you even call it an aircraft, but it was a a toy, and they could cut the fuselage out with a little hot wire. Yeah. And they were mounting cameras and different payloads up in that thing back in 1999. And when you think I said it just picked up hobbyist parts, put them together, and built something that was functional at a very small scale. So I mean it's been we've been doing this a long time, but boy, has it come a long way. When you think of the autonomous part, especially, it's impressive. The first time I probably saw something similar was uh I'm part of a group called Government Business Executive Forum, G B E F, here in Tyson's. It's like a sea-level government industry kind of collective. And they brought us down to a facility in Maryland, and we saw uh a drone, an autonomous drone, um, navigate a building. So think of clearing a building if you were Marines, but the drone could lead your way in and autonomously operate in the building with no remote control or GPS. It did it through computer vision and some other aided technologies. And then it was able to reverse out of the building. It was pretty impressive. That's amazing. They work a lot with the University of Maryland on some of the drone testing there. So it was pretty, pretty eye-opening in what it could do and how it can navigate the physical obstacles in a very small environment. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah. And as you mentioned, being in the Marines, you know, being the first one through the door is a terrifying experience. So having a robot go first, I'll take that. Yeah.

Brian Lake

We're we're definitely at this robot, we're we're beyond the robot war stage, right? We are literally having these autonomous systems embedded with our war fighters out there. Um so uh I think we've all seen, I mean, when the the war in Ukraine has been going on for years now. And when the uh when we when it started, you were seeing YouTube, live YouTube videos of a small quadcopter, you know, uh uh uh what do you call it? Uh amateur drone with uh with a C4 attached to it and dropping in on Russian bombs. Now I I was talking with um some of your colleagues over

Ukraine Lessons And Counter-Drone Adaptation

Brian Lake

at Defense One. There's a proving ground in Poland for all autonomous systems going into Ukraine. I mean, did the war in the Ukraine really change the calculus on on how this looks for for the United States military?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. So we're definitely, I say we all say the United States military, right? We're we're definitely keeping an eye on what's going on over there, and so is the rest of the world, because the calculus is changing right in front of our very eyes. Um, you know, just the the ability of of either side to use robots, drones, to affect the battlefield and really make a difference, uh it's it's completely changing any everything. And and the the world, not just Ukraine, has to adapt to this new calculus of, okay, how do we take out these drones? How do we defend ourselves effectively from drones? And how can we use them effectively to achieve the mission while keeping our warfighters safe? Um so yeah, it's it's kind of turned everything on its head, and and you're seeing a lot of testing being done in Poland because that's it's about as close as we can get to the battlefield with NATO. Um, and we have some very interested partners in Poland who are uh very interested in defense spending right now, spending and investing a lot of money uh because they are that that first line of defense for NATO if if Russia were to move further west. So uh they're obviously very interested in testing out those capabilities and seeing what works and what doesn't work. And it's really interesting to watch the technology evolve almost day by day. And I'll I'll give you an example. Um you know, we we used to find jamming technology pretty effective at countering drones. Uh you can kind of shoot out a signal that overpowers the signal that the drone is receiving, and if it can't receive its instructions, it sort of drops out of the sky. So that was a very effective way to equip dismounted warfighters with sort of this handheld anti-drone jamming tech that worked for a long time. But then it evolved. Uh they were able to use now these amateur drones with fiber optic cables. So they're these really long, like spaghetti string cables that are sending and receiving information telling the drone what to do. You can't jam the drone if it's receiving hardwired information. So now you have to adapt. Now you have to use kinetic munitions or lasers or things like high-powered microwaves to take out that drone. So it's just constantly this cat and mouse game of evolving uh to defeat whatever the latest development is. And yeah, we're seeing a lot of that play out in Poland.

Brian Lake

Yeah, I mean, I think they read an article from one of your colleagues about the calculus of a $36,000 Iranian drone gets through and can blow up a radar system that's $300 million, right? And and we're using $3 million missiles to try to take out 94% of the drones being launched at our at our air bases in the Middle East. But those 7%, which could be three or four drones, get through can can cause hundreds of millions of damage and or and loss of life, obviously. Um and and but it's it that but really what we're seeing too, uh drones aren't just weapons platforms. They're ISR sensor platforms. I mean, Sean, I know you've done a lot of this thinking around at the edge, collecting data, and these drones are now collecting data in real time. And like talk to us a little bit about what you're seeing and thinking about from that non-kinetic standpoint.

Drones As Sensors And First Responders

Sean Applegate

Sure. Yeah, and I think an important way to think about if you're in the broader government industry or public sector is we can use drones for lots of good things too, saving of lives, first responder activities, eyes on sight before first responders show up. So those are very common commercial use cases that are saving lives or keeping first responders safe when they step into a tricky situation, but they aren't meant to put around on target, for example. But from a sensor platform perspective, everything's a center these days. But getting the data off of those places that have key views over a target and being able to then process that real time at a command center or a a Ford operating base or maybe a small squad that needs to hit a target is really important. And being able to do that with AI where we've looked at video feeds that are labeled and tagged automatically, and those things can feed targeting systems, or uh the ability for us to operate at significantly higher battle space momentum, and typically do that much more efficiently. And you'll see that with systems like Maven, where they were have been doing these things since about 2013, but they've matured quite a bit in the last, I'd say, three to five years as the AI capabilities have improved, the machine learning and data labeling is much better. They can view things now visually with AI at the edge, tell you what it is, and send a small event back, not the whole video. So now it scales much more effectively at a global footprint level. Again, those same technologies we've proven out in the Department of Defense can be used for drone as first responders in a lot of our local police departments now, where they can launch a very cost-effective drone, have eyes on a target in 60 seconds or less than five minutes, and typically minutes before a police officer can respond. So they can see what's happened on the freeway with an accident, for example, and EMTs will kind of have a view of it before they get there and kind of assess the situation. So I'm really excited for the common everyday benefit of the first responders here in America to leverage those things long-term as well, not just the what's happening overseas. But I'm sure we'll talk about some life-saving type topics where drones are really useful for different reasons. As an old marine that humped around a big backpack, much like yourself, David. I'm excited for having robots that can carry lots of heavy stuff and uh humans can save their knees, maybe.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, yeah. I wish we had that. Yeah. I I would would have really appreciated that back in the day. I wanted to actually pull on that thread um that you mentioned, you know, and having all those sensors out there and using drones to kind of extend the eyes and ears of of the service using it. Uh the Coast Guard now is partnering with Sail Drone, I think, to use their USVs, those unmanned surface vehicles, uh vessels, sorry, to um to put them in the Great Lakes in the North Atlantic now, uh, so that they don't have to patrol as much. They can just put out all of these systems that are kind of sensing and communicating with another, one another, and then sending that information back to the Coast Guard, which can then go out and go rescue someone. Um, but they don't have to do all the work of finding it. They have all these eyes out there.

Sean Applegate

Yeah, we switched to a lot of work with the Coast Guard. And one of the cooler projects we get involved in is kind of their cloud data pipeline piece, which is taking all the streaming telemetry and landing it in other systems, collecting it, integrating it. And some of those are our real-time applications for using event-driven architectures that are very modern. And so that a Coast Guard um person can respond to something and be told about it with an alert and typically real time, not wait till they do a database pull, you know, 15 minutes later, for example, and some of the other systems. So it's been fun to see that come together. That bigger program's uh you'll think of what Coast Guard's got a program called Coast Guard uh Coastal Sentinel is the program name where they're trying to kind of do a bunch of that censoring at very intelligent levels. Uh they've done a little bit of work with Andrew as well. Uh when you think of smart movies, for example. Yeah. So those are great areas. I think the Coast Guard, from an innovation perspective, has leaned forward pretty aggressively and is really using data at at a very advanced level to save lives, um, to protect the homeland as well. Their mission's multifast when you think of enforcing fishery laws, um, saving lives in the the most harsh conditions that the sea ever sees. I mean, those guys uh take out dru you know, I'll say takeout, but they intercept drug shipments and have missions that are very dangerous to their own personal lives. So the ability to use drones in some of those situations to subsidize the mission, improve uh the outcomes, and also maybe de-risk their personal lives will be very valuable. And and and that's great for for our fishermen, our you know, maritime uh recreational captains, and and also good for probably keeping Americans a little more safe as well long-term.

Brian Lake

Well, I mean I and I and I think as we're film filming this podcast, um on June 8th, uh, you know, an Apache helicopter went down on the Strait of Homuz, and uh those those pilots were rescued by an AI-powered, unmanned, sarconic Corsair, which is within two hours. Uh and right now the Strait of Hormuz is heavily mined by Iran, and and you know, the uh the idea of using these tools at uh these these these autonomous systems at our disposal to you know rescue and save lives is incredible. It's it's truly mainstream happening right now. This is the first of his time it's ever happened.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, first time it's ever happened, I think. Yeah.

Brian Lake

And I mean, and when you think about the drug interdiction, I know Southcom has a huge role in that in the Caribbean Sea, and you know, they've stood up an autonomous warfare command. I mean, this is hitting all at the same time, it feels like, David. Yeah. Uh is is the is the OEM uh when I think about the community needed to build the sensors and and all the different components and parts, is the ecosystem ready for it? Is it mature enough? Talk to us a little about what you're seeing in that front.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I I would say the answer is uh you know it's it's complicated. But uh Yeah, I mean the technology is maturing very rapidly. Um I think I think we already have systems that that work and can work together. I mean, clearly they work, right? Um, you know, as you mentioned with the the Corsair, that USV um rescuing those those the helicopter crew. The this the stuff works. Um, but that technology is also advancing very rapidly. And each time I attend one of these trade shows and I walk around, you you get to talk with the engineers and the manufacturers, and they're like, this is our latest version. This thing's even better than the last one. This one communicates even better with other systems. Um yeah, I think I think it's only going to get better from here, and we'll see the capabilities um build off of one another. And I'll I'll tag on one other little tidbit that I think is really interesting is now seeing things like USVs or those unmanned surface vessels uh equipped with counter drone capabilities. So now you're seeing drone drones that can launch other drones that can run into enemy drones. Drones fighting drones fighting. Robot wars are here, right? So there's a lot of technology being layered together, and and that's what we need to see.

unknown

Yeah.

Brian Lake

You know, I I when we were at Soft Week, I met a uh a small startup, and I their name escapes me. And folks, I'll make sure we put it in into the show notes. But I was talking to their founder and their CTO, and they have a they have a sensor technology, but they started their their company had started in the anti-pest space, where they were using these centers, these sensors to identify like pest pest control issues for and they had been funded by USDA. And we she started talking about how uh the ag tech business is extraordinarily difficult to scale into because of the size of big, big ag, right? And that they made they realized that their sensors could be used very easily to identify, is that a bird or is that a drone that's coming at us? Um, and so they made this pivot into this space. And just seeing like everyone realizing some of these capabilities and technologies, they started in a whole different area and now moving into being part of the autonomous ecosystem is really incredible to see. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, you do not want to shoot a missile at a bird on accident. That is right. It's a very expensive use of a missile to blow up a pigeon. Trevor Burrus, Jr. It's very key technology.

Sean Applegate

You might be able to use a bird to take out a small drone, though, right? Yeah, you can't.

Brian Lake

Yeah, you can. Oh man, don't get we're gonna get PETA calling us up about they have trained birds and prey to take out drones.

Sean Applegate

Strappy C4 of poor pigeons. So the military's been using animals for a long time, like war dogs back in World War II. I mean, it's tradition for this point. Now you might have a might have a falcon or uh or a hawk uh deploying with you.

SPEAKER_03

If they if they allow that, I might re-enlist.

Brian Lake

Well, I mean, listen, it it's we you guys were talking about first through the door, and I was I was listening to I think a Sean Ryan podcast, and they were talking about the they were the guys who started integrating dogs into the Marine units in Iraq in 2004 and and beyond, and it wasn't being done. And then you know the dogs were the first through the door, and it's and you know, and they lost a lot of really great dogs, but they didn't lose Marines going through the door, right? And I think that's it's these next iterations of thinking how can we use technology to continue to protect our war fighters and making sure they can execute their mission is really incredible incredible to see. Um but Let me let me like pivot a little bit because obviously you focus on

The Navy Bets On Attritable Fleets

Brian Lake

naval systems, David. Uh and you and you mentioned that I think when we talked on our pre-call, the Navy was a little resistant to autonomous technology in the beginning, and they've really begun to shift their tune and their tone on this. Uh walk us through what really changed and why does it matter and what is it being used for in the name from a naval standpoint.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I think I think, well, to to preface, I'll say the the Navy uh they've they've changed things up from what they originally set out to do. And then that's you know a good thing. Um, you know, the military changing course, that that never happens, right? Um so I think originally the idea was, yeah, let's let's invest in in unmanned technology. We need to do that, right? Let's let's create uh a naval vessel that we can operate autonomously. And I think those, those, the idea started out that you would have small, medium, and large uh unmanned vessels, both above the water and below. So having unmanned submarines, basically. And we're still working on those, but the emphasis has really shifted to those smaller and medium-size um autonomous systems, with the idea being that a big ship is also a big target. Uh and we're we're definitely seeing that play out in the Black Sea, you know, and elsewhere in the world. But it just makes more sense to send out a hundred small autonomous vessels to complete a mission than to send one large ship that can be taken out by a single or maybe a handful of um explosive laden unmanned surface vessels. So it's it's now about using attritable systems. You'll hear that that buzzword thrown around where um you know you're sending a lot of quickly, easily produced uh unmanned systems to complete a mission. And this also really helps with the idea of contested logistics. If you're trying to get equipment and supplies to um to an area that is potentially under threat, you can send uh 30 USVs, uh 30 autonomous systems, and 10 of them might get destroyed, but 20 are still going to get through. And you can still get supplies to those warfighters who need it. So um there's a lot of benefit to having um these these sort of mass-produced uh smaller systems. So I think that's definitely the trend that we'll see moving forward. Not that we won't have large robot boats and subs and vessels in the future, but I think the the uh real focus is gonna be on the smaller side.

Sean Applegate

Yeah, and I think the versatility when you think of the general platform, but the ability to modularly snap in the assets you need for the mission, whether that's uh you know a trap mission to recover pilots, um maybe it's just uh search and recovery on a true trap mission by an air, you know, an aerial drone, or you're gonna linger for for intelligence collection, or maybe you're gonna one-way drone, right? Attack drone, you're gonna sit it down range and attack, but but the targets you're gonna hit may be very different. So I'm I'm very interested to see how the modular kind of open architectures come together and how the defense industry or or maybe public sector in general works with uh the drone vendors to be able, maybe more standardized approaches so they get that flexibility they need across maybe a couple different platforms. When you think of this, they're gonna need massive manufacturing abilities. Oh, yeah. And ideally, you know, some of those may come from certain vendors when you think of the platform or or payloads that we need to put on drones or whatever that that set of capabilities are. And that maybe the best people to build that are not the drone manufacturers. They can own the the drone platform, the general capabilities, and then we can snap in the modular pieces that maybe other people make, or maybe the Defense Department makes it themselves when you think of the organic industry base. Um and so I think that's that's pretty interesting. The other thing we've seen too is a lot of warfighters can now do their own manufacturing downrange with 3D printing, uh manufacture their own capabilities, get creative at the mission on the front line. My my son's in the Air Force as a as an F-15 crew chief, and they're doing design work real time downrange when they have to go fix things or come up with a new idea and build things they can put on to solve a problem at the front line of the mission without having to go back to Northrop Groman or Raytheon to get something designed that takes six years. Yeah, that's right.

Brian Lake

I mean, you guys are the you guys are the Marines, you're the MacGyvers of the United States military, right? Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

We're actually really good at breaking things. So we so you kind of have to be good at fixing things once you've broken it.

Sean Applegate

We're great at yeah, using bubblegum and duct tape. One of the real stories for a sidetrack, yeah, I spent time in the desert in the 1990s with a Marine Expedition Uniform deployed. And one of the things we used to keep sand out of some of the computers when we were like poor and broke, and just you're like, I just kind of jerry-rig it. Um pantyhose did a pretty good job of putting in front of the fan filter instead of the actual fan injet, and you could use that as a filter to keep the sand, the coarse sand out of getting into some of the fan. Why the Marines are going to be a good idea? I mean, it's hard to find a pantyhose in the desert, though. I would agree with that. But uh if it didn't come come well designed and ruggedized for the desert, you had to make it make it make it work. Well, I mean overcome.

Modular Payloads And 3D Printing Downrange

Brian Lake

On that note about you mentioned the the drone startups maybe not building ultimately and scaling. I mean the money is the funding's following this trend, right? Um I think uh Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, uh $225 million program in fiscal year 26, uh $56 billion in 2027, which is about a 24,000% increase.

SPEAKER_03

It's a bit, yeah.

Brian Lake

It's a it's it's a pretty big increase, right?

Funding Surge Plus Supply Chain Reality

Brian Lake

Yeah. Uh other budgets that you're just seeing massive amounts of of money being poured into this space. Are the startups that are uh that are building these prototypes are they able to truly scale? Do they need the partnerships with the larger primes? Are the neo primes more well positioned to kind of step in here? What's your thoughts on that, on that front?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah. Well, I'll I'll make two points. I think one, looking at the funding that's coming in, yeah, the the 50 plus billion dollars into that uh that the dog uh program. Yeah. Um that that to me says the US government is taking this very seriously. You know, they're making a statement that that is a significant amount of funding. Um, you know, they they they put funding in with replicator one and two, but that's now being eclipsed by this funding. So it's sending a clear message that this is a priority for the future of warfare. Um and and I think industry is receiving that signal and and understanding that there's gonna be a lot of money put into this space. So I think we're gonna see a lot of offerings from both your traditional um industry partners with the DoD and also perhaps more importantly, with a lot of the smaller players who are using ag tech um or or something similar that's not necessarily intended for defense, but making a pivot, understanding that, hey, the solution that I have, the software, the hardware that I have can actually help with this mission, this mission um and and to achieve what the DOD is looking to do or the DOW. Um so I I think that yes, uh smaller industry players will will just naturally have a harder time um ramping up uh their their production once it's realized that, okay, we we now we now need to not just make a prototype, but we need to make hundreds, if not thousands, of of drones or or um unmanned surface vessels, unmanned undersea vessels, uh unmanned ground vessels. We have to make a lot of them because that attritable nature of drones is really important. You need to be able to mass produce this kind of stuff just like artillery shells need to be mass-produced because you're gonna send a lot of them downrange. Um and then the other thing that we'll see is yeah, probably the bigger players are going to uh gobble up some of those smaller industry partners as well once they see that, hey, that system's that works. Uh why go rebuild it when I can just acquire that company.

Brian Lake

So I do think we'll see a little bit of that play out, but um, do you see any challenges in the supply chain, like either downstream that's gonna cause problems? Uh I'm assuming the the government wants these uh drones to be made here in America. Uh but where where's the where is there gonna be bottlenecks in that supply chain for all the different parts of this ecosystem?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I think in general, um supply chain chain issues are are nothing new and and they're not going away. Uh you need to only look at the US naval shipbuilding industry to understand that we're just really not able to produce uh vessels as quickly as we would like, certainly, or as quickly as we should be, um, mostly due to supply chain issues. There's also workforce issues, but that's a different conversation. Um you're just gonna run into issues where, okay, in order to complete this system, we need the specific part, and it maybe only comes from one or two places. Uh so getting a handle on that is gonna be really important. That will absolutely affect uh the drone marketplace. Um, yeah, that that supply chain issue isn't going away. So insulating uh from those challenges is going to be really key. Uh and and yeah, you're absolutely right. Building in America is important. Um, it's it's clearly important to the administration. Uh, and it also allows us to insulate ourselves a little bit from supply chain issues, but some of that still needs to be set up moving forward.

Sean Applegate

Yeah, and but I mean, and this is often not understood by the common American, but when you think of the supply chain, it goes back to things like you know mining those minerals in the ground and being able to source those minerals to, for example, design the batteries or have the steel available to make something, or maybe the titanium available to make things, or to have the appropriate chemicals available to 3D print parts for the drone um out of specialized filament. Um, so you can do additive manufacturing very quickly. And those are things when you look at the supply chain, we've offshore a lot of that over the last 50 years, and we really do need to bring some of that back back to America because those are the foundational building blocks that we do need to have some some ability to do on our own independently and not be completely dependent on um foreign countries to do. It's also just good, good for jobs and employment and and maybe uh not being a service job. You know, I've got a number of of you know, children we raise five, a number of those work in more, I'd say blue-collar hands-on jobs um that are closer to those things and you know, knowledge workers that might just hit keys on a keyboard, right? So I'm interested for you know a lot of the young, I'd say, uh and this is not meant to be maybe sexist or whatever, but but young men that want to do hands-on work that are really passionate about you know, applying you know skills and knowledge in their hands to do things um in the physical world, not just do things in, let's say, the tech world with AI and software, for example, right? And so I'm excited to see that where they can go through a vocational path um through high school or maybe job skilling, early career. For example, we have a uh a skill, uh school here in Virginia, uh near Norfolk that does applied uh learning where they pay the young men to come or women to work and build skills and welding, electrical work, building shipping and maritime skills, and then they graduate out of a of a journeyman program, and they're often building ships in America for the commercial industry, the defense community, other folks. So I think that's a a great thing for America to do. Um, not everybody's designed to go to college and get a get a degree, but there should be a path for you to apply that and and you know provide value to um you know back to to the community you're in locally, maybe a broader market as well. But a lot of that is also about you know having self-fulfillment, self-pride, and being able to provide for your family. And I think those are amazing things that we're gonna see come back to America over the next several decades, probably.

SPEAKER_03

Aaron Powell I saw an ad they brought back uh Rosie the Riveter now to encourage uh you know more participation in that industry. And

Mine Warfare And The LCS Test

SPEAKER_03

yeah, we need it.

Brian Lake

Aaron Powell Before we move on to our our next topic, I do want to just kind of go back a little bit to your experience and what you're seeing in the naval side um and back to Iran and the Strait of Ormoes uh being mined. You I think you wrote an article about how the Navy is using littoral combat ships to try to demine. And those ships are more well positioned to achieve this mission, but the same and then launch UAVs into or um uh USVs. A lot, like I said, a lot of acronyms. Probably both. Yeah, right. Uh so talk talk talk to us a little bit about kind of the dynamic in that in that situation and the challenges that it's facing the United States Navy to try to clear these mines and how they're using these autonomous systems as well as these weapons platforms, these ships.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, sure. I I could talk about this for an age. I'll do my best to summarize. Um in a in a nutshell, we got time. We had this this uh mine warfare uh vessel class called the Avenger class. Uh they had fiberglass hole. Yeah, Avenger class. That sounds awesome. Um but they're quite old. So they're being phased out. I think maybe we have four left that are kicking around somewhere. Uh they were based in the Middle East, but unfortunately, right before the whole Iran conflict kicked off, I believe they were moved elsewhere, uh maybe into the Indo-Pacific, I believe. Um, but the idea is that they would be replaced by uh the LCSs, the littoral combat ships, that these things would finally find a a purpose. There's this kind of a comedic debate around uh the LCS and and you know whether they are the worst ship ever made, or can we actually use them for uh an intended purpose? And and some bright person said, hey, we can make them mine warfare vessels. And so they've equipped several of them with these mine countermeasure mission packages uh that use things like uh unmanned surface vessels uh that can tow sonar or or UUVs, other robots, right? Uh robots towing robots, the unmanned undersea vessels, they can use drones, and they can um they can seek out and destroy these these mines. However, it's it is a very complicated, time-consuming process to demine the entire Strait of Hormuz. Um, I won't pretend to be a mine counter warfare expert, but I know that uh this technology is still being tested to see what works and how well it works. So it's I say we're really close to being able to use the LCS uh to effectively um counteract a mined uh naval area, but there's still a bit more testing and and trial and error that has to uh happen before those are truly effective. Um so for now, I believe that the LCS um is is not actively uh deming the Strait of Hormuz, but we could see that in the future. Um so yeah, it's definitely something that the United States Navy and the Coast Guard and other militaries around the world are going to be applying uh autonomous systems to for mine warfare because it just makes sense, right? Um send a robot to uh to to take care of a mine, just like you see these little robot dogs um that can go and and do explosive ordnance disposal. It's the same kind of um thought process, but we just have to work on that technology, let it advance a little bit more.

Brian Lake

It it is wild to me that uh you know the the Boston Dynamics robot dog was everyone would see it at a at a trade show about four or five years ago and freak out and like want to get selfie with it. And it's like almost antiquated now with what's out there in a few.

SPEAKER_03

Oh, another one of those? Yeah.

Brian Lake

Yeah. You see it and you're like, all right, all right. The it's the the novelty is totally worn off on me. You know.

Sean Applegate

So I was at Consumer Electronics Show back in January, and the uh the little fighting robots were all the all the jam or the dancing robots. So the dancing ones, yeah. It was pretty fun to see those still. I mean, it's it's interesting what they can do. I will be really happy when they can fold my clothes and match my socks. That's I need it.

SPEAKER_03

We're almost there.

Brian Lake

I just wanted to do the laundry. They don't have to fold it. I can handle that.

World Cup Security In The Drone Age

Brian Lake

All right. So let's I'm glad you brought up Commun Electronics. Let's pivot a little bit. Uh this doom and gloom on the military versions of our conversations today. Uh robots fighting robots and blowing up minds. Um it's not drones aren't really just a battlefield problem any longer, right? I mean, uh you've been writing, you I know you're you're you're releasing uh a new report about counter drones for the World Cup, which as we're recording this podcast starts today.

SPEAKER_03

It does.

Brian Lake

Yeah. So 3 p.m.

SPEAKER_03

kickoff, I believe.

Brian Lake

Yeah, we so that uh we're gonna have to wrap this up pretty soon here so we can get to a bar. Um so uh talk to us a bit about large-scale events like the World Cup. Um, why is counter drone technology important for these? How is it be how have they been handling it, I think, between the NFL and uh I live in Jersey, so everybody has heard about the Jersey drone swarm that still has unknown origins from a little while back. Um so talk to us a little about like what you're seeing in this space as well.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, no, I'm happy to talk about it. I'm glad you brought it up. Um yeah, not only is this it's it's the World Cup, right? It's it's the world's biggest sporting event. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the biggest World Cup in the history of the tournament. There's 104 games, I think, and 78 of them, I believe, are in the United States. So there's there's a ton of games. It's the biggest sporting event ever to take place. So that puts a lot of pressure on the host nations and the host cities to keep a lot of millions of fans who are traveling from all over the world to keep them safe. That's nothing new, but what is new is the threat of drones. Um, we saw it a little bit in in Qatar in 2022, um, kind of testing the waters of of counter drone systems and being aware of the threat and how to deal with the threat. Um, but now just looking at the the war in Ukraine and in the Middle East and the use of drones by really any nefarious actor who can go get a drone and strap a C4 to it or grenade or something, you know, there's all sorts of ways that drones can be used for bad purposes. So the Department of Homeland Security, um, the Pentagon, National Guard, local, state and local law enforcement are all working together to leverage solutions to deal with this threat, so to stop the impossible from or the unthinkable from happening, right? And so how do we do that? It's it's a very different application uh on the homeland versus out on the battlefield. You can't, you obviously don't want to shoot a missile at an incoming uh drone um even or incoming quadcopter, right? And you don't necessarily want to blow it out of the sky with um your typical kinetic munition at all. Uh you can create debris that's gonna fall down into a fan zone or into the stadium, you know, disrupt a match, whatever. Uh so you have to come at it from a different approach, these sort of non-lethal approaches. And as I mentioned some of them before, there are defin uh there's several ways you can deal with a drone threat that don't involve shooting it out of the sky. Um, things like jamming technologies, or um, there's something something called cyber takeover, where you can you can basically give the drone different instructions and try to land it safely. Or you can send up another drone that uses a net to sort of capture uh the bad drone and and uh and take it back to base. So there's a lot of different um things that are being tested out. Um and I don't want to forget high-powered microwaves. That's that's a really interesting approach. It seems very sci-fi, but now you can shoot microwave microwaves at drones and melt the internal components of not just one drone, but several drones in an area. Um you still have the problem of them falling out of the sky. But uh, you know, it's it's a novel approach to this problem. So I think I think we're going to see um, hopefully we we don't see any any active use of the counter drone technology, but the fact that they are um they're gonna be there around these stadiums and fan zones to protect uh the fans and the civilians there. And uh and I believe state and local federal law enforcement are are ready now to use these non-lethal effects. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

Brian Lake

Well it's it's also they've had unintentionally practice in this area due to uh fans at sporting matches that have bought their own drones that are just trying to capture really great Instagram content, right? Uh so this this is not like something new that they're kind of this isn't the first time they're trying to deal with repelling a drone over a large sporting event, right?

SPEAKER_03

Aaron Powell I think 23,000 drone incursions uh for in NFL stadiums in 2024, something like that. So it's happens all the time. Everybody's like, oh, I'm gonna get this great view of the stadium, I don't have to buy a ticket, I'll just fly my drone overhead. But they have no idea that the FAA has regulations that say, you can't do that. And and your drone, you will not have your drone anymore. We'll take care of that for you.

Sean Applegate

Yeah, so the listeners at home, you need a drone. License for a lot of the drones. So if you don't go get your drone's license, you're already breaking some regulations and laws. But most of that training is about, hey, where should you not fly a drone? Yeah. Um, there's also a lot of rules around things like beyond line of sight drone flying. So there's a lot of regulations that are changing here in the US. So if you're a citizen drone pilot, if you will, you know, you want to be aware of what's currently in place, take your license, stay up on it, enjoy your drone, but don't put yourself in a tricky situation where it's going to be uh intercepted and potentially taken away and you might be fined or worse. Um I worked back early days from my perspective, one of the more interesting aspects of this is how do you factor those different drones or UAVs or submersible vehicles if you're patrolling waterways near those facilities, for example, into a broader consequence management strategy? So when you think of a joint task force, when you think of Homeland Security, FBI, local law enforcement, potentially defense components like Sebur from the Marine Corps or maybe a National Guards unit coming in that has more advanced KOs, how do you integrate that into a smart disaster management platform, a data platform that can respond quickly, coordinate quickly, and also get that things like real-time video feeds out to the local law enforcement or a combined workforce that is local law enforcement, contracted security, FBI, justice, homeland people, you know, maybe defense departments, making that easy to do so that they can put eyes on and respond quickly and and make good decisions, right? Maybe you don't need 50 people to respond, you need two local law enforcement to just go look at a bag in a corner, right? And check it out. So don't you know do it in a way that's appropriate level of response, but use technology to make that a lot easier and coordinated. I mean, that keeps people from maybe getting uh you know the blood pressure elevated uh too early if we can we can respond collectively and with the appropriate level of a response. Right? We don't want to spook uh our fans. And so doing that, I think a lot of our law enforcement officials and first responders are pretty thoughtful. I mean, they're everyday citizens in most cases. Yeah, they're trying to respond and and do it in a way that's um well doesn't raise concerns, a good way to think.

Brian Lake

This is also an international coalition of of information sharing, right? Because like that matches are being held across three countries. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_03

U.S., Canada, and Mexico. That's correct.

Brian Lake

Um so that's uh really great to hear that this is happening. Uh is policy catching up in this space? Um is equal amounts of is the FA well funded and what has the right policies in place to manage all of this?

SPEAKER_03

Aaron Powell I think I think the the funding issue has largely been taken care of. I hope uh FEMA had 250 million uh put towards counter-UAS systems. Um I believe DHS had 115 million put towards uh counter-US. And this is just for the World Cup. This is specifically dedicated to say, okay, let's make sure that we are ready to handle this problem. So um yeah, the the funding is taken care of, um, or at least should be. They're they're already procuring the systems that they need. Um but yeah, policy, um, you know, I guess time will tell. Uh yeah, I don't have a ton of window into that, into the policy side, but in terms of system application and funding, um, we're actually looking pretty good. Although I will say, you know, you made me think of uh a commercial that I saw when I was a kid. Um had the like the lightning bug that was like, don't fly kites near power lines. Well then now they need one that's like don't fly drones near stadiums. They they need to bring back those commercial. I mean, it's data marketing and awareness. Yeah, yeah, there we go.

Brian Lake

Yeah. I mean, if if you're if you tell me that there was thousands of drone incursions in the NFL, it it's it's bound to happen. Right. I mean, because the perimeter is only so big around the stadium and and the drones can be launched from much further beyond the per the security perimeters.

Sean Applegate

Or from inside the stadium. I mean, drones are tiny, so and you're only going to catch so much stuff at the front door, unfortunately. I mean, they do a pretty good job today, but yeah, if uh if the drone's mostly plastic and a few metal parts, the uh you know the metal. Right.

SPEAKER_03

Well, and it's not just stadiums either. You know, you have like I think I mentioned fan zones, but also the practice arenas for the teams that are traveling, their hotels, uh they are unfortunately themselves targets. Uh and and so you have the duty to keep the players safe and the the managers. Uh so it's not just the stadium. Um so there's there's a lot to consider uh and protect out there.

Privacy Controls And Joint Response Playbooks

SPEAKER_03

Trevor Burrus, Jr.

Sean Applegate

Yeah. On that note, I would say the one thing we've seen on the public sector law enforcement side, like local law enforcement, a lot of drones today have awareness, the the ones used in law enforcement, of where they're at and the privacy controls they need to put in place, like blurring out video for privacy reasons of people's individual homes that aren't part of the target scene. Uh so for example, Beverly Hills uh police department and Chula Vista in California are exceptionally advanced in these areas and have spoken at a number of events, but they do things like blur those things out. So if you've got a drone operator, they can't capture video, some celebrity in Beverly Hills, for example, out at their pool taking uh bathing or whatever, you know, catching catching a tan. So and those are things I think are very thoughtfully designed by the manufacturers, integrate into platforms and and make sure they put appropriate controls in for privacy for our citizens here in America. I think that's the big concern for a lot of people that are just regular citizens, is their privacy here in America is very important. We take that seriously, make sure we design those things into our new technologies, whatever those technologies are. But I can say that's the part that we saw local law enforcement, which aren't well funded, but they work very closely with the manufacturers to design in features that aren't defense features, but they are privacy features for their constituents and the people they take care of. And typically are their neighbors, their moms, their brothers, you know, their banker, their grocer, that they want to make sure they do a good job to respect their privacy.

Brian Lake

Main Street USA, right? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I don't know my banker, but I it it it it blows me away a little bit when we think about I I used to work with a homeland security organization and they would do these complex scenarios, right? You know, dirty bombs going off on sporting events that have been brought in and pieced together through, you know, multiple terror cells. And now it's just like somebody with a $200 drone and the anarchist cookbook can inflict damage that is truly disruptive and life and life-changing. The job for the the organizations responsible for this security is extraordinarily complex. Yeah. It's got to come down to data sharing, right?

Sean Applegate

Yeah, I think it does get back to when you think of a joint task force, um, the professionals that run those and have run those for their careers, right? Their 10, 20, 30 year careers are very good at what they do. The relationships they build at a national and local level, at a city level, are extremely important. This is the part that being a member of GBEF, we see when you, for example, get the police chief for Chicago coming in with the local split agent from the FBI, and they've known them for 15 or 20 years through their careers and they've progressed. Keeping those people in positions that are important so they build and nurture those relationships of teamwork and collaboration and protecting their citizens, I think is really important. So I'm a huge fan of uh making sure we develop those relationships at a grass grassroots level and you keep people in those roles so they can build the relationships to collaborate. Whether that's you know in a government job or maybe industry as well, it just makes the teamwork better. I mean, everything's at the end of the day ends with people, right? It starts and ends with people. They're really the reason we have, I think, an amazing country here. But that collaboration's very, very important at that local level. And it's impressive to see what's transpired. We see a lot of you know crazy stuff in the news sometimes, but I'm always encouraged when I see the individual people on the street in those jobs actually collaborating and telling amazing stories that you never hear in the news. And as a Marine that worked in the intelligence community, yeah, I was you know attuned to seeing lots of things that the average person to get exposed to that that keep people safe around the globe. Um, and there are lots of risks out there. You normally don't see those on your your evening news locally either, but those things take place, and these new technologies will keep those local law enforcement people, the first responders and other folks, they'll allow them to do their jobs better, keep your local citizens safer, hopefully do it at a reasonable cost from what we've seen so far, so that your dollar and a local tax dollar goes farther as well.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, that's the trick. Yeah.

Final Priorities And How To Follow

Brian Lake

Well, I have one final question for both of you before I get to it. David, and you know, you look at these issues all all the time. So what what are you working on? What do you what do you have coming out in the next several weeks from a research standpoint or articles that you're writing that uh we should make sure folks are paying attention to? Aaron Powell Sure.

SPEAKER_03

I mean, simply, yeah, if uh everything that we post is gonna be on forecastinternational.com or uh the Defense and Security Monitor. That's our that's where we post our articles. And we're constantly just keeping an eye on everything in the autonomous market uh to include um everything that we've talked about and uh counter drone systems as well that fits under that umbrella. So yeah, um definitely check out those websites to see what we're working on, and we're gonna keep our finger on the pulse.

Brian Lake

Excellent. Well, so final question for both of you. Sean, I'll go to you first. We'll close with David because we obviously all have a soccer match to get to and watch. When it comes to unmanned systems and platforms, what should be top of mind for these federal leaders right now? What's the one thing either front end, back end, the foundational ecosystem around them? You know, what is it that they should be really being paying attention to or really focusing on for either the rest of this fiscal year or really prioritizing it for next fiscal year?

Sean Applegate

Yeah, I would say think of that drone as a unique platform you can do lots of missions with. And a lot of that involves using the data to make rapid decisions. So getting the data off the platform into your mission systems is extremely valuable. So think of how you you take the data off that and and plug it into how you make and drive decisions that really have a strategic impact to your mission and allows you to maybe um you know pick up the pace quite a bit, I guess is a good way to think about it, like speed up the Oodaloop. We've seen that quite a bit in in the Ukraine. We've seen it, uh I think I ran here more recently. But I think there's a ton of value in making decisions quickly and doing it confidently as well.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, and I would say I guess I'll summarize basically three things for the autonomous sector. One, your system has to it has to work, it has to be effective first and foremost. Um another thing is is that now we're getting to the point where we we know what works and we have these prototypes, but being able to build uh prototypes at scale is a key challenge. Um, and not just being able to produce at scale, but also being able to integrate with other systems that are out there. That I think is really key to what the Pentagon wants to achieve is they're gonna be leveraging autonomous systems in the air, at sea, on the ground, um, from many different vendors and industry partners, and they all have to be able to work together uh and and communicate with one another to create this sort of mesh network of communicating drones and sensors, and it's it's all gonna come together. But in order to do that, they have to be able to talk to one another, send and receive those signals, and be operated by basically a single command and control decision maker or um or unit.

Brian Lake

Well, I mean, listen, this has been a really interesting conversation. Probably one of our more unique conversations that we've had. We typically talk about uh IT and bits and bytes, and that we don't get a lot of opportunities to talk about actual platforms. So really interesting conversation today. Thank you for joining us, David. Uh I know there's some quite a few large military shows that will be in the DC region of the next couple months. I'm sure there's gonna be a lot of great new technology that we didn't that we didn't even see at Soft Week. Uh so I'm sure you can find, you know, like I said, uh everything will be in the show notes for you. For those of you listening, um, all the different articles and research that David and the team over at Forecast International is creating. Uh, you can probably find David or myself next year at Soft Week. We'll be the guys wearing, ideally wearing hats. Yeah, hats. Zinc oxide sunscreen. Sean, you got to come next year. It's gonna, it's a really great time. But uh great time, you know, for all of you watching the World Cup, go USA. And uh please, wherever you listen to your podcast, like, follow, and subscribe. And if there's anything else that you need, go to just three sixty dot com. Gentlemen, David, Sean, thanks. Really great conversation for having me. This is great. Outstanding. All right, Sean. Thanks, guys. Beautiful. Love it. We did it.