Montreal Recap: Right Tactics, Wasted Legs

In this episode we break down the Montreal tie. Was Bartlett to blame? Rene? Or something only the numbers can explain? Let's dig into why this draw felt like a win we should have had.

Transcript

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It was an 87 minutes. A ballot just scored a heather from a Kurokawa corner. Everybody was celebrating at Audi Field. 4-2 is the score sheet. We got this. We're going to win this one. By the 96th minute, the game is tied 4-4. Montreal scored two goals on stoppage time. What just happened? We got this. Was their forward on fire? Yes, it was. Did they have a little bit of luck? Maybe. The real reason why we got a point in this game when we should have three points instead lies on the numbers. Let's dig out together. Welcome to the Buster Nest podcast. And thank you for giving me a few minutes of your time to talk about the DC United. We tied 4-4 versus Montreal, as I mentioned in the intro, a very winnable game. We should have won this 4-2, 4-3 maybe. So before I give you my analysis on the reason why I think this happened, which is behind the numbers of the game, let me first talk about the starting 11 and my impression on the game in general. So we went with the classic Rene 4-4-2 with Johnson in the back in the central defensive area, ballots and rolls. Backs were Kurokawa and Hefty, the boys in the middle of the park. The two Sorvenia and Peltola. Wingers, we got Peglo and we got Strud. And in the boys on top were Luis and Baribo. I think my only tactical pick was to flag was Strud over Hopkins on the right wing. And I think this was because Rene wanted a little bit more of a defensive mind on this area. That's fine by me. So my first half impression in general, I think we execute pretty well what we are seeing game after game. It's Renee's idea. Use the wingers, use the overlapping, use the lumbows to feed the two guys on top. As long as we get the ball to Louis and Baribo, I think our strategy is working, playing more on the opposition half and using direct one or two passes to get the ball to the two guys on top. So I think this was working. Montreal came with a long ball. So both teams have their plan very clear set for the first half. I don't think any of both teams dominated. I think we got a little bit more because we have a laboratory on the set plays, but the open play, as I'm gonna just talk about in a minute, the expected goal by open play was not really that different. So we got a couple of goals before the 30-minute mark, which is a very healthy indication of a good attacking side on the ninth minute. Luis got pretty much a header from a set play, which was uh instead of just we got a foul near the area, instead of just crossing the ball to the box or just a direct shoot. We passed the ball to a midfielder. Sarvania then put a clean hit. The goalie cannot handle it, and Lewis got a header. The second one was a loose ball again on the opposition box, and then Strut just put the ball in the back of the net. 2-0 by the 30-minute mark, and I think we were executing pretty well or planned. Unfortunately, by the 46-minute ballot or Captain Central Defender got a grotesque, non-justifiable error. He was just too slow on the ball, and then he made a passing too late. Prince got a little bit of a rebound and then score a 2-1. The half-ton sensation, it's this should be 2-0. We did got that error from Ballet, but other than that, I was pretty happy with what I was seeing. So let me just put a little bit of number behind what I was talking before, why our set play laboratories are so good. Our expected goal on open play was around 0.16, and this run from 0 to 1. Montreal got around 0.3, so they double our chances on open play. But this is counting for that essential barlet error, which give them around an extra 0.1. So realistically, it was around 0.16 to around 0.2 versus these two teams. So not that much of a difference. Now let's go to the set plate goal probability. We got around 1.1. They got very close to zero. So Renail Lab, it's working. Another good sign of our attacking, it's our passes into the final third, we're around 41 versus 30 from Montreal. So we were getting more into the final third. The touches on the opposition box, we were getting 18 touches on the first half, they got only eight. So not only were we getting more into the final third, we were putting a seal of the ball into the opposition box, creating double the danger on the touches on the opposition box. So, numbers back off the impression. If you were a DC fan, I'm feeling good. Attack is working, we are handling pretty well on defense. The second half, it's a little bit of another story. We got in the 51 minute a penalty, a very soft penalty to be honest. Bartlett and Prince are fighting to be guys, very physical, fighting on the ball. Barlett goes to the ground, and the referee decided to give a penalty. Fine by me. So we got a 3-1 around the 50 minute. So from the 50 minute to the 17 minute block, I think there is a crucial moment for the game. Because one, we didn't know how to take advantage of the 2-0. We never set the tempo, and this is not surprising really. So I think it was more on the physical side of the game. Maybe an attest for this is after their goal on the 67-minute mark. Renee recognized this and gets a double substitution. He got Hopkins in for Strode, like to like, meant to make on the right win. And then he got Baribou, one of our forwards, out for Markovich, which it's a natural center back or CDM. So he wanted to get a little bit more of presence in the midfield area, getting a little more recovery, which was unsuccessful by the numbers. In the 78th minute mark, he again gets hefty out, which was tired, run out of gas for and leave. We got a goal on the 87th of minute, a corner, ballot, a header, 4-2. Everybody was feeling great on the audio field. We should have got it. But again, there's another two goals on the extra time, which both of them are, if not similar, on the goal itself. They're very similar on the build-up. The game, the the plays are started by uh a Montreal player on the right hand side of the game. It goes uh a through ball to Prince, and then prints make the magic happen. Once he got he men's handle rolls, turns, put a shot, Kurokawa gets a slight um block, but it goes to a handball. Unfortunately, prints convert. And the second one, Carmona puts a through ball in the space between Antli and Ballet, and the balls get again to Prings. He again men's handle rolls, put a pass in the middle of uh the position or opposition box, which finds Sin Shunk, which uh finished the 4-4 tie. So that's pretty much for the game impression description. So let's go to the full match stat block and compare to the first half to see how or physical drop led to some interesting numbers to analyze. First one is the expected goal on open play. We got around 0.57, Montreal got 1.87, so almost more than triple or uh creation on open play. This gap really exploded on the second half. It was not the first half, it was the second half. Theirs, it was on the second half around 1.67, ours 0.41. So they triple or creating goal probability on the second half. The set plays, excluding the penalties, we got around 1.28 general versus in the game versus Montreal 0.33. So they never really got any handle on set plays. We actually got around four times the goal probability by set plays. So as I mentioned before, the Renee Lab is working. The passes into the final third, 79 to disunited, 70 to Montreal. We actually outpassed them on the final third over the 90 minutes. But the touches on the opposition box, it's a little bit more of the story. We got 29 tied with them, but on the second half, we only got 11 of those 29. They got 21. So they doubled the passes on the opposition box on the second half without any noticeable tactical changes. So that's why when asked why my visual assessment is a physical drop. So let's go to the next section, the game analysis, and let me give you my explanation why the numbers tell the physical drop is real and why. Give me a second and I come back. Alright, so we're back, and this is the main section of the pod. Game analysis. If we have a lot of carbs before with the starting 11 and the in-game impression, this is the time for protein, this is the time for real digestion. Let's go to the main point. DC United was not tactically outclassed in this game, it was outrun. So, why I think it was a physical drop and not a tactical collapse? Two factors for the tactical argument. First, Montreal execute pretty much the same game plan for the first half in the second half. And this was long bowls and very vertical ground game to Prings, they're forward, and to the two men's on the wings. And then once that they hold up the ball, try to put a few bodies on the final third. They execute that same plan on the second half with way more, very effective results. And the second one is definitely there was no a tactical change by Renee versus the first two half. So if both teams were very consistent with their tactics, and there's a difference what I'm going to give you by numbers between the half, I think if not tactically, it has to be a physical drop what led to the tie of DC United. So here we go with the numbers to support the half by half data difference. On the first half, we were definitely the better team structurally. Final third passes, 41 for DC United, 30 for Montreal. The opposition box touches. We got 18, Montreal got eight. That's double the opposition box touches in the first half. The second half, complete inversion of the same metrics. The opposition box touches, flip to 11 to DC United versus 21 for Montreal. They double it in the second half. Let's go to the open play probability. It flips ours to theirs nearly four times between the first half and the second half. We got a.41 in the second half. They have 1.57. They more than triple or XG from first half to second half. Our ability to intercept the ball completely gone the second half. We got four interceptions on the first half, not great by all the standards, but in the second half we got zero. So they went past us way easily on the second half. They got seven dribbles completion on the second half. We got one. So this was not really a Chicago, this was not really a St. Louis situation where there was a tactical disparity from the first half, especially on the wing area, that we're never able to adapt and recover. This was a situation where we were winning the tactical chest play on the first half and there was no changes whatsoever on the second half, at least not significantly. I know, for example, Carmona, he was switched from the right wing to the left wing and he did some damage, but their basic plan was the same and they were more effective on the second half. If I have not convinced you so far, let me give you a little bit more of meat why this was not a coincidence. Let's go by the players' minute average this season. Or starting 11 versus Montreal. The boys has on average around 1088 minutes played on our starting guys 11. Montreal have around 855 minutes play in this season. So we came to this game with around 27%, almost a third, more loaded legs than they came. So for example, Ballet has played virtually all the minutes available for this season. I think he is around 1,300 something minutes. Prints, for example, it's around a thousand minutes. So 300 something plus minutes that ballet has to run more and be more in the field that prints. It's the same with roles. Roll is around the 1,200 something mark minutes. So it's around 250 minutes more in the field that prints. So they're both way more up run at RU's than Prince. And at test, Prince looked pretty fresh versus these two guys. He ran faster, he was more physical. And the numbers at Ten Huai, he is way more fresh than Ortur central defenders. Carmona, for example, had a great game in both wings. So he he he looked like he was flying. He only have 796 minutes this season. Kurokawa has around 1,338 minutes. That's 541 fewer minutes for Carmona than Kurokawa. So Hefty, for example, have 1,220 minutes. He had Carmona had two 423 fewer minutes. So Carmona have in average around, I would say around 500 minutes less than both or backs, and it showed why he was just flying. I mean he is full of gas, or guys are kind of like tire. That is a perfect argument. So we were not tactically outclassed, we were outrun. I have given you the numbers telling you that Montreal did not significantly move the needle to find any tactical solution to the games. They played pretty similar strategy on the first half and second half. Rennet did not move the needle at all for that 4-4-2 formation. So the tactic was the same, and the numbers as I already give you are quite different between the first half and the second half. I also give you a few numbers just to find why before the game, this United as starting 11 as a team, was quite more outrun and out-used in the minutes play in the MLS than Montreal. And this kind of like show in the game. Players like Carmona, price, players like Prince, they were way more fresh, way more quick, they were flying at times versus or players that they were a little bit more slow to get into areas. And this this was exacerbated on the second half. So with this argument close, let me go to the second one, which is a little bit more of a short one. And this is this one in particular is not on Rene. His options on the bench were limited, and I think he reacted quickly. He always does around the 67th minute mark when he sees the physical uh perform drop in performance. He react very quickly. His first two changes, Markovic and Hopkins, were on point tactically. I think these two players underperformed both. I was expecting more of Hopkins. I was expecting a little bit more of Markovich. I think Hopkins underperformed quite more. I think he was not effective on the attacking side, and he was not definitely effective on the defensive side of the area. I will be a little bit more easy on Antley because he came in for hefty. He holds his place pretty good, but unfortunately, you know, the goals did come from a right-hand side again. So he does have a little bit of laying off there. Uh finally, if you look at uh the bench, it's it's just pretty, pretty narrow. The options here will be getting someone like uh Kaiden Clark for Piglow, uh, but he did not pull that trigger. Renee, I can understand why. He doesn't trust uh the players. The fact that he's repeated so much the starting 11, only I guess with incognita, if it's Stroud or Hopkins, if Renee wants more defense or attacking, I'm not using really any of the players other than Markovich of Hopkins. It's just an attest that he doesn't really trust the rest of the players in the bench, and this is leading to accumulation of minutes in our legs. And hopefully we have a break for the World Cup that we can kind of like refresh than some vacations because the situation now is starting to look pretty grim, especially the physical side of the game for DC United. And I think this game in particular, it's a final attest that we need a bit more uh depth on or bench. So the my final point, and I think uh it's with Ballet. I think Ballet have to get a lot of heat from uh the media and especially social media because he's underperformed. I don't think he did really underperform. I think uh ballot was a solid contributed on that that he did have, yes, that unjustifiable error, but I think the football rating that he got is around 7.5, which is in our top three. Only Louis and Stroud, which was Stroud was our better player with 7.8. It's uh bigger than that. I think yes, that error led to the the goal again, not justifiable, but I think on the defensive side he did a lot. For example, he did around 16 defensive contributions, he completed one tackle, four blocks, nine clearance of those five had clearance, so he was drawn over the air. And I think in general he got a penalty, a soft one, but he got one, and then he put a goal in. So the minus plus goals only for Ballet was plus one. I think Ballet was a part of a defense that was pretty tired, a midfielder who stopped to intercept balls and wing balls in the second half. And he is the main guy, he's our captain. You expect a little bit more from him, but I think he's just a symptom of a tired team, not really the root cause. The root cause uh As I mentioned, was we have used way more players than Montreal. We're running out of gas and it showed up, especially after the 65th minute mark. So getting a little bit with Ballett, please, because you know, he is not really the root cause of this um of this tide. So I think this is pretty much the main session of the analysis with the main three points. One one key one, and then a couple of one for Renee and one for Bartlett on the side. Just let me, I'm not gonna obviously talk about the next opposition because it's gonna be uh more than a month and some days after the workup that we're going to face the Houston Dynamo. I think it's in July 22nd. But I just wanted to touch in the final minute of the podcast of uh my plan for this workup break. I think I'm just going to uh do a pod, release a pod about or mid-season analysis, take a look back of the games, how we're changed, what we have done well, what I think we need to improve. Definitely a mid-season analysis uh podcast will be done. I also want to dig a little bit more on Rene on the tactics side, go back to his days in Anlet Letch, go back to his days in Servette and his time for the Japanese professional league, see a little bit more of his tactics, what he did well, how he's trying to implement what he did well in the past in DC United, and when he kind of like had falloff and how could be different here at DC. I also finally want to uh give a pot also to analyze our new transfer under Dozell, uh, getting a little bit more of the flavor of the player, his ups and downs, what areas he could improve, where he could fit under starting 11, and in general, how he's been uh performing on the English second tier. The last pot on this World Cup break series probably is gonna be a look at the second half of the season that is upcoming to us, taking a deep look at Houston. I'm gonna have a lot of time to analyze Houston next opposition, but also our next 10 games and what to expect from Rene. Alright, so we have made it to the final minute of the pot. Thank you so much for staying with your host, talking a little bit more of the numbers and analysis side of the game. In a game which you have won for two, but unfortunately, tire legs and a little bit of their forward prints being on fire led to a tight and two painful goals on stoppage time. Well, thank you so much. And if you like this kind of content, please give me a five-star review. Good review on either Apple, Spotify of whatever uh platform that you use, it helps grow the channel. I have to say now, I'll see you in the next one. Ciao for now. Hasta la vista y que sea buena vista.