Pirates Insider Podcast, Episode 47 (7/22 What must happen with pitching staff)

Mitch Keller makes his first start of the second half. What must change with him? And how can the rest of the starters lead the Pirates? We also look to the bullpen and some recent trends involving Wilber Dotel, Yohan Ramirez and Isaac Mattson. Bottom line, the Pirates need their pitchers to be what everyone thought they would be before the season. Jason Mackey breaks it all down here.

Transcript

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Alright, what's going on, everybody? Good morning. This is the Pirates Insider Podcast. I'm your host, Jason Mackey, coming to you from New York. No game last night, of course, rained out, postponed to today. We have a split doubleheader, 105 and 705 at Yankee Stadium. We'll be heading over there shortly. But with the day off, I thought I would take a step back and kind of talk about the pitching staff a little bit. It's been such a hot button topic with this team. Doesn't matter, bullpen, starters, whatever, with uh as many strides as the offense has taken, and it's hard to believe slash impressive, whatever you want to call it. I mean, this is legitimately one of the best offenses in the league. And whether the Pirates stay in this thing, whether they can make a run, whether they can get hot, it is of course contingent on the pitching, which is surprising given where we started this season and the expectations and all that stuff. We thought maybe if the offense could get, you know, around 15th, 17th, 19th, something like that in Major League Baseball with the pitching staff the Pirates have, it's going to give them a chance to make a playoff run. Well, they did far better than that. The only problem is the pitching staff hasn't quite held up its end of the bargain. Looking before this show, in team ERA, the Pirates are 20th at 4.30. Starters are 13th at 4.23, relievers or 21st at 4.38. Um, there are two ends of that. Um, both of them need to improve, and we'd expect the entire pitching staff, I'd say at least top 10, preferably top five, where we look at some of the numbers and you want to see a little better than they've produced. So let's talk about some of these guys individually, and I'm gonna highlight game one starter Mitch Keller. He's gonna be my uh primary subject here on today's podcast, and talking about the need for Keller to be better in the second half. Uh the past couple of years, you know the story. Mitch has been really good in the first half, second half, he's kind of fallen off. Here's hoping it'll be different this year. Here's hoping that he will invert his season and really find it in the second half because he needs to. And I think there are some things we're gonna highlight with his performance that can be better, can be different. On the season, Keller 6-7 of 5.14 ERA. He's made 19 starts, he's worked 101 third and 103 and a third innings, 35 walks, 7, 77 strikeouts. Largely pedestrian from Keller, maybe a little bit below that. You certainly want to see more. Over his last two, he's worked only nine innings, has an eight ERAs, given up four home runs. That's not going to get it done. The sinker, the pitch that has been Keller's bread and butter for a few years, and whenever he was able to sort of rescue his career in 2022, that was a big reason. Opponents are hitting 366 against it with the fourth 465 slug. Um, sort of obvious that needs to change. One narrative I was sort of surprised by, and this has been out there with Keller, and it's not to say it's any different, he needs to be better against left-handed hitters. But if you look in his career against lefties, though they're hitting 280 against him with an 813 OPS. This season against lefties, Keller's at 283 in 843. So it's a little worse than his career numbers, but um obviously that's quite high for what they're looking to do. Um, I keep saying that I want to see him throw a sinker more, and I'm not moving off of that. I still think there's value to be found there. Um if you look back in 2022, that pitch netted a 315 batting average against and 403 slug. That's that's not great. Um, but the next few years is where it got really good and became a weapon for Keller. In 2023, that's when he mastered it, 261 batting average against and 364 slugging percentage against 259 and 385 the next season, 262 and 418 last year. This year, like I said, 366 and 465. Some of those numbers, the way opponents are faring against Keller's sinker, it needs to be better. Um, another thing I see in looking under the hood on Keller is his sweeper. Uh it needs to be a good pitch for him. It needs to be a weapon, and it's been kind of scatter shot. Uh batting average against, it's only at 193, but slug 458, and he's given up six home runs on the pitch. What that tells me is he's missing his spots too many times and too many meatballs coming across the plate with this sweeper. Needs to be more pinpoint. That also tracks with some other stuff we've seen with Mitch. Braxton Ashcraft, when he's been really good, has been awesome with runners and scoring position. Well, the opposite for Mitch. He hasn't been good with runners and scoring position. Opposing teams are hitting 347 in that situation, a 594 slug, 970 OPS. He's allowed five two-strike homers this season. So to recap, we want to see him be better and more pinpoint with the sinker, use it a little bit more. I do think it's going to be effective. Don't miss as many spots with the sweeper, with two strikes, with runners in scoring position. Have to be better. These are specific areas. Keller has identified uh previously, and whether it's mechanical, whether it's mental, needs to improve. It is amazing that we're talking about this with Mitch Keller, too, by the way. Went back and looked at his game log. Over his first eight starts, he was four and one with the 287 ERA, 14 walks, 37 strikeouts, 35 strikeouts, excuse me, and two home runs allowed. Over his last 11, 2-6 with the 7.03 ERA, he's allowed 21 walks and 11 homers. Uh so again, what that tells me is sporadic misses in command that are really blowing up in his face with the number of home runs. Keller has a chance to have a different start to start the second half today against the Yankees. Obviously, not an easy lineup, but a lot to prove for Mitch Keller. In game two, we're looking at Bubba Chandler, somebody who has trended better, but I still think of Bubba Chandler in the second half and the opportunity uh ahead of him to really put a foot down and show what he can be. We've seen it at times, but his last two starts he hasn't made it through five innings. His last seven have been better, 434 ERA during that time, only 30 strikeouts, does have 17 walks in there and 37 in the third innings. There's a lot more with Chandler. If he's commanding his fastball, if he's throwing all four of his pitches, if he's around the zone, he's very good, but it needs to happen more consistently. Braxton Ashcraft was their starter in game one of the series and did not have a good one. And they need to figure this out and nip this in the bud real quick over his last four. I talked about this on the pod yesterday, I believe, has an 828.24 ERA. Uh he's given up eight home runs, six walks, and twenty-three strikeouts. So um Ashcraft, it it's mainly been missing in key spots with spin in key situations. If he's able to command those pitches better, I don't have a lot of concern, but um maybe it's workload, maybe it's tiredness, I don't know, maybe it's a blister on his pitching hand. I know he's been dealing with that. Either way, there's opportunity for growth there. Uh we have seen it out of Paul Skeens. That's an obvious one. Not gonna waste too much time there. He's been very good his last three, three and oh with a 245 ERA, four walks, 19 strikeouts. I like what I'm seeing there. Jared Jones as well, three starts in July, 15 innings of 1.20 ERA, three walks, 23 strikeouts, no home runs allowed. So if it continues with Skeens, if it continues with Jones, um we have some work to do with Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, and Bubba Chandler, but I do think it's in there, and that's the starting staff taking care of things. Uh and if they're able to do that, obviously that's gonna be impressive, be important for the Pirates writ large. But let's talk a little bit about the bullpen now, too, because this is a group uh we've we've discussed this plenty, um, and it actually has been trending a little better, if you can believe it. It doesn't feel like this. This surprises me seeing this number. A 2.67 ERA over its last seven games. That's since July 11th. Now I know what happened in Cleveland, game two of the doubleheader, Pirates blowing another save, and boy, when they blow one, they certainly get their money's worth. But I think we're seeing some performances there, at least I hope so. Wilbur Hotel with three scoreless five strikeouts in the first game of this series. That's going to be important. Mason Montgomery has been better of late. Gregory Soto, not good in Cleveland, but otherwise has actually been pretty good in July, has a 1.59 ERA in five July games, had a 1350 ERA with three home runs allowed in June. Obviously, need the July version of Gregory Soto and need him to nail down the eighth or ninth depending on the situation. Went over Dennis Santana a lot in yesterday's podcast. And you're looking at Isaac Madsen, who actually has been trending in a better direction recently. Um he's made four straight scoreless appearances since he's come back a 4.15 ERA. There's still some growth there. I thought Brandon Isert on Monday was better. And somebody I'm going to write about today, hopefully, is Johan Ramirez. I've been working on and kind of building a story. I've been trying to wrangle Johan. He's not an easy one to get, but uh he's got such a wonderful personality, and that's great, but he's also been pitching extremely well. Uh he has a career-high scoreless streak of 17 and two thirds innings. That goes back to June 6th. It's the longest for a Pyrrhus reliever since Dennis Santana went 19 and a third in 2024. Johan Ramirez has quietly been the best story in this bullpen. Wright as you're hitting just 194 against him. I talked about success with runners in scoring position. Johan has been excellent in that situation. Opponents hitting just 149 there has 59 strikeouts that tied for 10th most among major league relievers. So if you look at sort of building things, and again, I understand trade deadline, wanting to add help, not saying they shouldn't add help, not saying they don't need all that stuff, still completely holds true. Um, but we have been seeing some things quietly under the surface. And we're doubleheader today, probably see Carmen Majinski, probably going to see everybody, honestly. But the last couple of doubleheaders outside of that game two in Cleveland is it's been pretty good. It was a very strong performance against Milwaukee. The first game in Cleveland was very good, but Pirates cannot afford any hiccups. And, you know, as they continue on this stretch of games against teams 500 or better, the bullpen simply has to be better. The pitching staff overall has to be better. Some stray numbers just to round out this podcast. Uh if you're curious about the number of doubleheaders, at least I was, like in quick succession, this is very, very rare. Um Pirates' recent trips with multiple doubleheaders. They had a trip in 2022 in May. They had two doubleheaders, and in 1986, in August, they had back-to-back doubleheaders in Philadelphia. Can believe that? And they're going to be bumping up against three doubleheaders in an eight-day span. The last time that happened was 1989, July 21st and 23rd against the Dodgers, and July 28th against the Philadelphia Phillies. So uh very, very rare the stretch that the Pirates are on right now, and uh look for them to continue a few things against the Yankees today. Uh something else I'll be looking for is as Marilyn Valdez. I made the joke on Twitter last night that even without a game, he's gonna find a way to home her. It seems like where we're at right now. Some of the numbers that this kid has been putting up. I mean, honestly, a lot of us writers were at a loss for what else to say about him. He's been so darn good, has 22 RBIs this month. That's the second most for a Pirates rookie in a single month since 2000, has at least one RBI in eight straight games. Only 10 Pirates in the history of the franchise, or at least since RBIs became an official statistic in 1920, have RBIs in nine straight. It's absolutely crazy. He's the second MLB player ever to have 13 homers and 34 RBIs through his first 32 career games. Reese Hoskins did it in 2017 with the Philadelphia Phillies. Just so darn impressive from his Marilyn Valdez everywhere we go. Uh just people talking about him and uh wondering about him. And who is this kid? Very, very impressive. Last little note here if you didn't see it online or on Twitter or anything like that, Spencer Horwitz uh made an appearance with Loey Bradenton starting his rehab assignment, went one for one with two walks, two runs scored, and also played five innings at first base. Um he's gonna take a little bit to get back. I wouldn't say take a lot, but it's gonna be very interesting when he comes back how they balance playing time. Obviously, you're gonna want to have Spencer Horwitz in the lineup, probably play him a decent amount at first base, can rotate him in Ryan O'Hearn, can play O'Hearn in the outfield some, but you're also not gonna take Valdez out of the lineup. So it'll be interesting to see what happens there. And then Spencer or uh O'Neill Cruz, excuse me, August 7th is when he'll be eligible to come off the I. L. So it's gonna be a real uh crush for playing time at that point. But Spencer Horowitz, good to see him back in games, and uh, we're also, I would imagine, gonna hear some news about Andy Rodriguez starting a rehab assignment soon. So I'll be on the pregame show today, uh before game two, looking forward to that. Gonna uh have a little piece on my Johan Ramirez story and uh talk a little bit about game one. Thank you very much to Joe Block for including me on that and looking forward to a pair of baseball games at Yankee Stadium, and we travel home Wednesday for the off day Thursday. This is the Pirates Insider Podcast. Make sure you are subscribed and checking these things out every day. Appreciate you listening. Love doing them. And uh back with more tomorrow to recap all of the action two games from Yankee Stadium. I'm Jason Mackey. Have a good one, everybody.