Wealth from Wisdom

FMP Volatility Roars Back

February 24, 2018
Wealth from Wisdom
FMP Volatility Roars Back
Chapters
Wealth from Wisdom
FMP Volatility Roars Back
Feb 24, 2018
Carson Wealth
Show Notes Transcript

Volatility is roaring back on Wall Street! What does it all mean for you and your investments?

Speaker 1:
0:00
Okay. And here's the legal Mumbo jumbo, the opinions voiced and welfare wisdom with Ron Carson or for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual to determine what is appropriate for you. Consult a qualified professional. All indices are unmanaged. I may not be invested into directly. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principle. No strategy assures success or protects from loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Advisory Services offered through Cwm LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor.
Speaker 2:
0:31
This doesn't mark it hit another all time. Records as much as $10 billion in social security benefits go unclaimed every single year. Reserve announced that they will raise interest rates by the skyrocketing cost of healthcare and retirement could now run 350,000 for retirement. Today is now a whole new ball game. It's loaded with challenges, obstacles, and trap doors that you can do this and we can be your guide. Welcome to wealth from wisdom with bear and tall if fame advisor, Ron Carson, straightforward and objective advice and how you could make your money go further in retirement. And now here's your host, Ron Carson. Deep down inside, you knew this was going to happen.
Speaker 3:
1:13
You knew it, you worried about it. And then it actually happens that the stock market wouldn't go up forever. And just, just when we get great news about the economy and you think, ah, I don't have to worry about it, cause now the market's really going to go up. The market comes tumbling down and literally trillions of dollars of market value just evaporate into thin air. And the question is, now what? How should you position and protect your investment? Hi, I'm Ron Carson with my cohost Paul West, and thanks for joining us today. You're listening to wealth from wisdom. This has been the most extraordinary bull market in history. The Dow has skyrocketed nearly 20,000 points. Think about that. Better fact, I want you to go back during March of 2009 I want you to think about what the media was saying. I remember the world's coming to an end.
Speaker 3:
2:13
This was going to happen. The market's who goes substantially lower when in fact you look at it and some common sense said, hmm, I don't think we're going to quit needing energy or electricity or food or water or automobiles or housing. And if you could just apply common sense, you made a killing. And by the way, investor behavior and common sense is the most critical element to being successful when managing your assets. So the big question a lot of people are asking today is this party finally over? Well you know what, nobody knows for sure and you can't control it. Matter of fact, this week, blackrock, the largest asset manager in the world
Speaker 4:
3:00
is out and they're super bullish. And then you've got Morgan Stanley not so bullish and you have to reputable firms that have two diametrically opposed positions on the market. So what do you to do? Cause you follow one or the other is a mistake. Because what you can control is what you own. And by the way, news flash, how you do with your investments has almost nothing to do with what the market does. And it has to do with how you react to the investment you have in the market. Paul, what are your thoughts? Well, I mean I think it all reactions are based on historical and very rarely do people change. So Ron, I mean we're talking 10 years ago now since the last financial crisis, how many of you on the phone, you know, listening to us today all across the country are saying, you know what, I held tight, I stuck to my guns, I stuck to my position and I didn't make any adjustments cause I felt comfort with the long run.
Speaker 4:
4:01
How many of you bought at the high point and then sold at the low point and are kicking yourselves? Or how many of you got completely out of the market and ever to get back in? So what the reality is is your past behavior is the most likely thing to be indicative of your future. So if we have a market downturn and 18 1920 whenever the next one shows up, you're most likely going to repeat your mistakes. People do that all the time. And our job is to help avoid it. So it tends to happen around, as people come into our office, if they're somebody listened to show and they want some more information, they tend to come throw like a hodgepodge of statements down on the table and say, what do I got? Well the reality is is they gotta have a plan first before we could put that all together on what they want to do.
Speaker 4:
4:45
And I think, you know, a lot of times we talk about risk and so many of us as advisers ask you as a client to take a risk score. So there's risk tolerance questionnaires, there's things you can go through. And I said, these are good Ron, but one of my favorite things to do then, you know, we have this, is that we have touchscreen technology in our offices and you can ask someone to take a risk tolerance questionnaire. But I love to ask them and watch their behavior of what's happening and what's going on. Because the reality is is what people say their risk score is versus what they can emotionally handle as a risk score are generally there's a wide dispersion and spread between those. So Paul, I think back literally march of 2009 in this very room, we're in our New York conference room here in Omaha in these chairs. Actually I was sitting in this chair and I had two clients sitting here at the adjusts, sold their business. They had all of this millions of dollars in cash and they did not want to invest in anything but short term treasuries because they were terrified and they stay that way forever. It just
Speaker 3:
5:58
to think about the cost of opportunity from sitting there being no common sense and I was like, guys, literally you have a fire sale, you can buy bonds yielding 20% tax free and they didn't because they were in closed end mutual funds. You can buy companies having dividend yields out of 1112 and some case 14 1516 these are companies that are going to be around. We, you love to have that today. And it's all of a sudden when all asset prices are marked up, that's when everybody wants to start doing crazy things. And let's talk about crazy because the same people they didn't want to invest in o nine are now investing in cryptocurrency. And it is a wild, wild west. Well, we're big believers in blockchain. And what that's gonna mean. I mean the idea we made the of the 5,000 cryptos out there today, we, there may now be one of those that survive.
Speaker 3:
6:50
Think of the early on Internet startups that paved the way for say the Amazons or the Netflix to be successful. But it was really hard to know who. And here's one, two Paul, you know, you know what ETFs are, but there's also a billions of dollars and he wins. They're exchange traded notes. And I've heard some advisors say, oh, they're just like ets will, they're not. And not ots are created alike either. So you need to pay attention. Is that levered at all? But here is a quote from a prospectus on an Etn. It says the long term expected value of your ETN could be zero. If you're hold onto your ETN as long as a long term investment, it's likely that you will lose all or a substantial portion of your investment. This is right out of the perspective. Wow. How many, how many people read that actually read that.
Speaker 3:
7:41
Exactly. And this is where I want to take a buffet. If you don't know your, you know diamonds, no, your jeweler, if you don't know investments, no. The people that you trust, and then there's another step you need to take, unfortunately as is there any education, what's behind the person you're trusting. What I hate about our profession, and it's, there's some irony here. The best salespeople, the best, which I was one of for many years, actually our best at raising assets, but a lot of times they're not the best financial advisers and the best financial advisors can't raise assets and no one benefits from the best. You really want to look at organizations, you know that have mixed the two. Someone who's great with bringing clients in, making them feel comfortable. Paul, you do an excellent job, but you got a phenomenal team behind you that we would never invest in an ETF or in something that is gimmicky, that's set up to it's bad enough having a market volatility. You don't want to have something that says that it's expected to lose most or all of its value or set up where somebody only sells you one specific product line run. And by the way, there's a lot of them out there. What do they offer? Annuities and just that to people. How can one specific solution be the end all for everyone and be in their best interest? It's simple. It can't,
Speaker 4:
8:56
it, there just no way to do that. So is actually, um, I thought a chair this with all of our listeners don't answer today Ron. I had just a wonderful opportunity the other day to meet with the listener of the show and I know you enjoy that. I enjoy it. It's just fun to hear what they're saying and what they're thinking about it. But more importantly, they're coming to us for comfort about life. And they actually were listening to another show and they were told by the show Ron, to come back later when you have more money. Um, and by the way, this family is a wonderful Nebraska family. They've worked hard for their money, they're great people, and they actually have a lot of money. But the most important thing is they have the most money for themselves and what they need to live out their life.
Speaker 4:
9:39
So imagine being told you're not good enough. And by the way, the show they're listened to often puts them in singular products that are the benefit of the person on the show than they are to the individual clients. And this is a big deal because these people at the end of it, we're so thankful that they had a game plan in place on their life and their money, their life, we're going to happen for them. And if they would've listened to the other people, they would have gone back and done what? Nothing and not had a plan in place. And probably more importantly, not slept as well at night of what's happening. So make sure you're getting advice of people that understand all aspects of your financial plan. And I recently, I know you've been traveling a lot, I've been here in the Omaha Metro area for several weeks and we've had a lot of ice lately and I didn't know this.
Speaker 4:
10:31
And thinking about the weather, cause I know whether it's a favorite topic of many people. So what do you think's worse to drive on snow, sleet or freezing rain? Freezing rain. Freezing rain by far. And by the way, I'm on a pilot and that's what, the only thing that'll really, that and the funder swine, we're bringing a plane down, freezing rain very quick cause you can't the ice it fast enough. So we had back to back days here of one day it was freezing rain and it was terrible out. People couldn't drive anywhere. Schools were canceled. The next day we get sleep, we get a little bit of snow and it's actually no problem to drive. But I was sitting there thinking about advice. Even here at our office is lots of people are texting each other well how good are the roads? Are the roads, okay, can I get there?
Speaker 4:
11:11
Can I not get there? And there really is that how much risk? How fast are you driving in your car? Do you have a four wheel drive? What type of vehicle do you have? Are you coming from a hilly neighborhood in the city? All are part of risk you're taking and figuring out what you want to do there. It's all about assessment in, it's about rebalancing those risks, right? Does it make sense? And that's really the one takeaway from today was the only one thing you take away his manager downside, the upside will take care of itself. And part of that is rebalancing, realigning the risk to your risk budget. This isn't something you can put off for 30 60 90 days the sent you need to do right now because if you don't, you could be the one to suffer the pain and consequences of this next bear. And I
Speaker 3:
11:54
don't know if it's going to start today or a year from now, nobody knows. But you need to invest appropriately for you because investor behavior is going to have the biggest impact on how you actually do you know what, and let us show you how we can add value to that equation and helping you reduce your risk and a lot of times you can reduce rest. This is a crazy thing, Paul, reduce risk and you don't have to reduce the expected return because a lot of portfolios are really not that efficient. There's no cost, there's no obligation. It is simple and easy. Give us a call at eight eight eight four nine 85 13 the most important thing you could do for yourself right now as balance out those risks and we have a big volatility. We had it again this last week. It's here to stay. 888400900 85 (388) 849-8513 volatility has ward back on Wall Street. Is this a buying opportunity? Should you run for the hills? We're going to talk more about this on Walton wisdom. I'm Ron Carson. If my cohost Paul West,
Speaker 2:
12:52
how could you make your money go further in retirement? Learn how next unwell from wisdom with Barron's hall of Fame Advisor Ron Carson, he's a published author and has been featured in Forbes Investment News, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC and more now back to, well from wisdom with Barron's hall of Fame Advisor Ron Carson.
Speaker 3:
13:12
Volatility. Yes, roaring back on Wall Street. Welcome back. You're listening to wealth from wisdom with Ron Carson and my cohost Paul West. Nobody and I mean nobody is going to be able to tell you what's next for the stock market. A lot of people are going to guess. A lot of people pretend to know is you watch the no and you watch the noise and you get confused but pretty much everybody can grab one thing is you need to manage it for you, your specific situation. What's your downside risk and even if you're not nearing retirement volatility, if it's more than you can stand is almost going to guarantee a bad outcome for you. So Paul and I are going to continue to talk about sound and practical strategies to help position or protect your investments in this crazy environment that we're in today. And Paul, you were talking about the couple coming in.
Speaker 3:
13:57
There was a point out of necessity with Carson wealth and our history where we couldn't take everybody on because there was a limited amount of technology and how many people could you serve and for the benefit of our clients, existing clients, we only le Le we like stopped at a limited number of new clients each year because we wanted to grow responsibly. But one of the things we always did, I didn't care how much money somebody had is we would give, we do pro bono work. Even if we couldn't bring them on as a client, we'd certainly help them because something struck me early on in my career is your money's not our client. The individual is our client. Yeah. Think about that. It's not the money, it's the individual. These are people, these are humans. Money's a tool to help them get what they want out of it. And what I'm thankful for in today's environment, I still think we have a reputation. We only take high net people. We work with billionaires and we have people that have $1,000 with us because technology, the cost of everything has come down so much that we can give a great experience to literally anybody out there. I'm not always profitable, but we don't have to be. Cause I felt like a lot of this is giving back to our community.
Speaker 4:
15:09
It is Ron. And I mean, and unfortunately not everyone is educated at the same level, but a dollar is still a dollar to everyone. Just somebody has different levels of zeros behind it, but everybody still wants comfort and peace that go along with how do you feel about this? And I was actually talking to my kids, you know, I've got three children, Ron and we were talking about finance and how it works and I'm so happy. My daughter told me, actually her high school has some personal finance classes. And that was reassuring to me that they're all being educated on what happens. Um, actually it was just sharing with our producer. Uh, Andrew, I know he's a crate and graduate. So actually this week we hosted an event called women and money for a crate and university and all the undergrads just teaching them how to be better investors and what works.
Speaker 4:
15:53
So for that female population on assisting them. And I think that's great. I think we all have to give back and keep educating people because guess what, what's our calculator today we're both looking at our iPhones. That's probably our most frequently use calculator. Pete. People don't go and try to learn that anymore. Or the challenge we see is you do a calculator from a Google search, but when you go to some of these websites, if you go to an insurance company's website, all these things are geared towards influencing your answer to help sell you a product or something else and you better use of fiduciary Ria when using those types of calculators. And somebody's going to give you an answer that's best for you and not best for them.
Speaker 3:
16:36
You know, Paul, you made it great and I just want to throw it out there for all of our listeners that if you need a resource to come to your high school grade school, College, we do a lot of this to your Quantis group, to your church, not a sales pitch. We'll come out and talk about, I mean you do a lot of, and I do a lot of it. We've got advisors here. We've got Scott Kirby or chief investment officer who by the way does the most incredible macro Monday, every single Monday. If you'd like to listen to it, let us know. You can actually listen in live to macro Monday or have him or any of us come out. We're more than happy because we're big on education. Yeah, we're, we've, we've hit the Carson group. We think about the law of abundance just by making deposits. It comes back to us in many ways.
Speaker 4:
17:19
Well, I may think that think of all of us in our life and our work and how technology evolved. And so one of the things we see in many places throughout the metro area here have Omaha's best places to work. Right? Right. Okay. And what's one of the main things they're hearing now for people is, is they want work life balance. And they also though want virtual capabilities to work from home or more importantly work when they want to. And one of the things I would share is financial planning for you and us should not be a nine to five job. It's not like going and walking into a financial institution, a bank, a credit union, et cetera. You should have access when you need it, the technology. But also it's fascinating to me how many financial planning professionals don't open their doors when clients need you the most. A lot of times clients are busy during the day they're with, they're taking care of their grandkids or they're somewhere else. What's wrong with having an appointment with them on a Saturday or another time? You all want a doctor. I mean look around you and other people use a concierge doctor service because you want access. We use Teladoc services here at the Carson group so we can call in and get help anytime of day. The world's evolving and changing. And is your financial professional evolving?
Speaker 3:
18:33
Well yesterday I've got bad knees and I was in and my doctor, Dr. Morrison, awesome here in town. He took I think six viles of fluid off my knee and he goes, you know, pretty soon we're going to be able to do this, you know, feel the telephone. I go really going to be able to extract that flew, well maybe not fat, but he, oh he said, wait, you're going to be out here and I can, they need to come in and see me. I go, I can do that right now through Teladoc. So you mean the, and he was also talking about, I'm getting off subject a little bit here, but just this, you know how healthcare is evolving and changing and becoming more preventative. But that's exactly what financial services needs to be, is not after the fact doing things or tax planning after the fact.
Speaker 3:
19:11
You need to be preventative out of front doing things right now. And I want to talk about one thing. I know we're talking about market volatility today, Paul, but there was an article out this week about Elliot Social Security Hard, but the headline was social security. I want everybody pay attention for just a minute. You got your attention, right? I'm, I'm less, I'm all over. Social Security on your iPhone, down social security, underpaid. 82% of dually entitled widows and Widowers 82 and when you dig into this, okay, this is huge. Now an internal audit which was done to determine a social security administration was and had controls in place to adequately inform people of their survivor benefits. The short answer was absolutely not, but it gets worse based on a random sample of the inspector general found that 82% of current beneficiaries who are entitled to more benefits than they actually receive from social security. And by the way, I'm not talking about minor benefits. I'm talking about, here's an actual example. In 2011 and individual applied for retirement and widow's benefits, she was eligible. Get this for $1,403 of widow's benefits and $1,140 retirement benefit. Social Security gave advice and paid a combined widow and retirement benefit of just 1403 they gave her the higher up consisting of two 63 as a widow and 1,140 as a retiree. By limiting
Speaker 4:
20:49
that and given that option, she could of what she could have done is not turned on retirement at all. Taking the widow's benefit of 1403 and allowing the love and 40 to grow at 8% a year to a huge number and then turn that benefit on. Instead, they activated them off and they defaulted to the highest of the two, which costs, and by the way, you'd say, well, surely she should go back and have them Redo it. She can't, there's no rewind button. No, nope. You can't go retro and frustrating that our own government not held accountable for it's wrong advice. Yeah, but we are. Yeah we are. And I think one of the things Ron, I'm learning from this and I read the same article is is it just tells you the importance of not, you know, investigating this or letting things sit and wait.
Speaker 4:
21:43
And social security for so many people is something you sit and wait on and you go file or you take advice from a family member and guess what your family members advice, just because they went through an experience doesn't mean your experiences exactly the same. And you have to think about that. So one of the things I think about risk Ron and I was reading this story. So last year of course was a very frothy and positive market. If we think of the market, we think the s and p 500 so what do you think the statistics are that the probability of the stock market will rise in a calendar year after year the market was positive. So last year the market was positive. What do you think the likelihood is here in 18 and we're going all the way back to 1896 here. So here's how far my data goes on this one.
Speaker 4:
22:31
I really don't know. A lot of times I've heard the stats before, but 65% I'll help you out. I was going to say 50 yep. So a little higher. That jumped me there. But I was going to have close guests. So historically, what do you think's the year positive? What do you think happens the next year? What percentage are negative years? Well you if if po, if 62 is positive, be 38 negative. Yeah, I got it. But so what's the likelihood though when the market took, when the market fell then the previous year we switch it on you. When the market fell, the market's up two thirds of the time. It also, if it fell, I would say if it fell the next year it's probably 50% it's going to be, nope, it's the exact same number as if it was. So it doesn't matter if it was positive or negative, it's up two thirds of the time it was cold. Somebody you were close. But here's, here's the last trivia question then. So when the market was up over 20% so 2017 was here, what is the likelihood that the stock market will be up again the next year? Just upper up over 20% just up overall. So 0.1% or higher, 73.8% no, now you're high on that one. Okay. Same exact number. It doesn't matter. That's what historically it tells it as if it's one or 20 there's a low predictive value. None at all. Yeah,
Speaker 3:
23:46
and I think these are fun for people is we can't, this'll tell you three out of 10 or seven out of 10 is the likelihood. You just don't know when they're going to show up. And we've been on some major runs here over the last nine years. Well, and I agree. And I tell you what, there's a lot going on in the market right now. And one of the concerns we have, Paul, as people aren't prepared for the RMB, the market's down. The market goes into a bear market. They have to sell stuff, they have to take that required minimum distribution and they're forced to sell and lock in and a permanent loss, which is really a tragedy. So you should have a strategy for RMDs because if not, the same thing could happen to you as you get forced into selling something you don't want to sell.
Speaker 3:
24:29
And it could be a great company. It's just happens to be down because of emotion within the market and the way to avoid this as having an RMD and your early sixties and we've got lots of strategies here at Carson Wealth and the Carson group and we'll show you how these little known strategies could legally help you save thousands of dollars in taxes and your IRA and your 401k. There's absolutely no cost or obligation. Give us a call at eight eight eight four nine 85 13 we have people standing by to take a time for someone to give you a call back or v they can talk to you. We actually have advisors available at those lines. Eight eight eight four nine 85 13 you can pay the IRS, IRS, or you can keep the money for yourself. It's eight eight eight four nine 85 13 I'm Ron Carson with my cohost Paul West, and you're listening to [inaudible] wasn't
Speaker 2:
25:18
trust, transparency, accountability. These are the values that drive Ron Carson and Carson wealth. You're listening to wealth from wisdom with Barron's hall of Fame Advisor, Ron Carson. Is it possible you could pay fewer taxes in retirement and keep this money for yourself? You could learn right here and right now, unwelcome wisdom with Barron's hall of Fame Advisor. Ron Carson will fasten your seat seat
Speaker 3:
25:44
belts because if you're invested in the stock market, you know it's going to be a bumpy ride this year. It's already been a lot more volatile than 2017 was welcome back. You're listening to wealth and wisdom with my cohost Paul West. I'm Ron Carson and thank you for joining us. Just when we get this great news, we get the tax package economies taking off. All of a sudden the market just goes crazy. I mean volatility like we haven't seen in a long time. Mark it down. 1175.4 0.6% we haven't seen it. It's a little unnerving and the real question is what should you do now to protect yourself and as Paul and I have said many times and wealth and wisdom is that what the market do that's going to drive your success? It's going to how you react to what the market does because people tend to make terrible short term decisions. They've listened to somebody on a radio station and watch somebody on CNBC, Fox or whatever it is, and they make a knee jerk reaction because we're convincing at the time. What you can is what
Speaker 4:
26:44
your allocation is using specialty and alternative investments. Some of these do well in any kind of market environment. But if you're sitting there saying, I want to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, it's an impossible day game to perfect, let's manage downside risk and let's set the upside takes care of itself. Yeah. Right. I think people make a lot of mistakes with risk. And you're very out in the public educating not only just consumers but other financial advisers. I mean, so we have a financial coaching company and we get it really a big pulse. And one of the things we see happen, and one of your talks, Ron, it, it's always about what anchors and engines. And one of the things I think, uh, clients tend to get stuck in is getting stuck to a number two, hey, I got to have $2 million before I retire.
Speaker 4:
27:28
I've got to have $500,000 before I retire. And they get stuck to that number. And if they can't get to that number or they go past that number, that'd becomes their risk barometer. Just don't fall below that. And that's actually something that is very dangerous about your risk pro folio. So I would say don't get anchored to a number because that's not always the best decision for you and what you can do. Well how many people do it's tied to a high watermark until it gets back to their, the market doesn't care actually what your Hiwatt Mar high watermark was. It doesn't care what you paid for anything. It doesn't care. It doesn't know. And so don't get emotionally into it like it owes you something. This is one of the things that we see a lot of emotional mistakes that are actually made. Yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 4:
28:11
Go ahead. I'll say, you know, speaking of risks though, Ron. Um, so when it comes to men and women, which one do you think has more confidence in terms of taking on more risk in their portfolio? Women. Women are, no men. Women are better or where I thought you were going, this is how much better investors, women are. And I did we cover that hearing? We did. We did a little bit of that, but I just saw a new study about this recently is men take on higher levels of risk. However, all the research shows is they're the same. So the risk capacity is actually the same on all of them. But what I thought it was interesting and this actually came from Kansas State University, is that both men and women who work with an advisor of the opposite sex tend to report their risk level just a little bit higher than it actually is.
Speaker 4:
29:02
And I think that's interesting behaviourally um, because some reason they want to show off and had, there's some level of attractiveness that goes along with that. So I mean I actually taking this now back to our team in this study to make sure when we have a female advisor working with male clients are um, male advisor working in female clients that there is none of this, you know, bias that goes with the attractiveness or show off component that comes along with it. Behavior plays such a important role in the decision making process. I would even say it's, it's even more important rum. Then actual a lot of your investments because you've got to control mistakes that you could make in certain market environments or listening to people who maybe don't know what they're talking about related to your personal situation. It's US preparing for today's show.
Speaker 4:
29:53
Ron and I was thinking about risk and listening to people and you probably shouldn't. So you like movies. I like movies. So what's probably one of the most classic holiday movies of all time is a Christmas story. So Ralphie, right, everybody remembers Ralphy don't shoot my eye out and BB gun. So it was probably one of the most famous scenes in the movie is when they're out by the light pole and the tongue gets stuck and the tongue gets stuck to it. And it wasn't Ralph, he was actually flick was his name who got his tongue stuck to the life pole. But can you imagine that, hey somebody, this is a great idea and yeah, flick made mistakes but flicked, didn't know. Flick hadn't experienced. No, it was flick flick. You forgot. You haven't seen in awhile. Yeah. But if, but if you think about it, I actually relate this to personal finance.
Speaker 4:
30:43
Oh such that you could relate cause you sketch your stung tuck. Just get your tongue stuck a couple of days ago maybe. But we're not telling anybody. There's no video evidence or at least I hope not. I'm sure my kids snapchat it somewhere. But I think about personal finance. So this is like somebody saying, hey, you should go do social security and go file right now when actually it's the worst decision you can make. But you're listening to somebody again who sounded credible. Ralphie and his friends sounded credible to flick, flick, listen, flicked did it. He wanted to be attractive to them and show off and be seen as cool and as a friend. And I'm going to follow what other people think and yet made a huge mistake. So I know it was like, oh I'm not stupid enough Paul to go stick my tongue to the pole.
Speaker 4:
31:24
But if, but if you don't rationalize and get true advice related to your money, then you're doing the same thing as getting your tongue stuck to a pole. And freezing cold weather is such a great job with those. I agree with those analogies, Paul. That's right on. Yeah, well it's, it's everyone. It's funny because I was thinking back to this and some of them, I probably don't want to repeat on the radio, but I was thinking like, what's one of the dumbest things I did growing up, you know, whether it's, you know, I remember walking to school one day and I always walked to school and for some reason we were like, we thought it was cool at the time at age six to kick everybody's trash cans over on the way to school. Well that wasn't cool. That was stupid. And you learn very quickly how dumb that was.
Speaker 4:
32:04
And thankfully I trusted nerds. I never did that. I never thought about doing that. Well, I, I went back and fixed all of them, but it was thankfully to guardian saying, Hey, do the right thing there and you're never going to make that mistake again. And you teach your kids and you do all those things, but you need guided advice and sometimes you go down the wrong pathway, but you can recover from it. And the same way with financial advices, figuring out when it's time to recover before it's too late. Yeah, I was just, you brought up the stats on women. I had to pull it up here again. Um, women on average save point for more and have 0.4% better returns per year. Um, and in another study, women outperformed men by 1% a year. Um, and also the outperform in a down market by 1.3% a year.
Speaker 4:
32:54
So I mean, just, and again, it's because they don't suffer from overconfidence and making just rash decisions. And you said 0.4, right? Point Forum one, 1.4 knee other than in a downmarket they out perform by 1.3%. So a significant difference. And here's what women only investment clubs. Apple for men only investment clubs by 4.6% a year. Wow. So if I had $1 million just on an upward market, I'm going to make, what does that, another $4,000 is a female and then a downmarket I'm going to save. Yep. Save 13,000 that's exactly right. Wow. That's a big number per year. I mean that is, that's a significant amount of money. Something you need to pick it up, the compounding effect that goes along with that. That's fascinating. Um, and I think also what happens with risk round, his perception of what happened. So when the market goes up and we're in one of those moments, moments, people's appetite for risk and the risk tolerance tends to increase because of the fear of missing out.
Speaker 4:
33:52
But what people forget, go back to oh eight no nine we're talking about this a little bit. When, when the market declines declines steadily, what happens? Their appetite for risk declines dramatically. And I will tell you is we've had some of this recent volatility here over the last month. How many people have come back? Like, Hey, you know what? Maybe I should be a little more conservative. I don't like this. I have a feeling like, oh it knocked the cobweb loosed way back in my memory bank here of I didn't like the pain I went through an OEM or a one. Cause you ask everybody how they felt. Then you're going to see how much risk they really can bear in their portfolio because real life confirms how you're actually going to behave. Absolutely. It's the capitulation point. The uncle point you've thrown in, you give up.
Speaker 4:
34:35
One of the things you can't control, we talked about earlier and you probably get tired of hearing it, but it's one that we see lots of mistakes still being made is on social security analysis. We just gave you an example where 82% of the people were misadvised by a huge amount and they're not held responsible. So you've got to be an advocate for yourself or having someone like us advocate for you to make sure that you're getting the right strategy, making sure you don't trigger an avalanche and taxes or you double your medicare premiums or you just forfeit all these benefits and the widow widowers example we just gave you because it will impact you directly we have and how you can avoid this. We have a customized social security analysis will do for you and it will help you see exactly what your options are and what you should do to get this free customized analysis. Call us at eight eight eight four nine 85 13 don't leave this to chance. Invest a little bit of time. I know it's not sexy social security, but hey, well things are really volatile
Speaker 3:
35:39
and they're uncertain. At least you can take control and you can do something and this was one of them you can do. They can make your money. Eight eight eight four nine 85 13 I'm with Paul Weiss. I'm Ron Carson and you're listening to wealth and wisdom.
Speaker 2:
35:51
He seems good times and bad times and he's got the gray hair to prove it. You're listening to wealth from wisdom with Barron's hall of Fame Advisor, Rod Carson. He's a published author and has been featured in Forbes, investment news, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and more. Now back to wealth from wisdom with Barron's hall of Fame Advisor, Ron Carson. Well, you heard it. You see it,
Speaker 3:
36:13
feel it and you're anxious about it and everybody's talking about it. And what is it? You know, it's volatility is back on Wall Street. And if you haven't prepared for it or you just love things unchecked, you should be scared. I mean, they'll look at what the number is that you need to hit to attain your goals and objectives. What's your risk budget? Now's the time to do that. Not 30 days from now, not 60 days from now, not 90 days from now, but today I'm Ron Carson with my cohost Paul West, and you're listening to wealth and wisdom and Paul is just, we've, I've been doing this 36 years. The biggest culprit has nothing to do with the market. It has to do with people and how they react and behavior. Some of the things I'm going to tell you is, I don't know. You don't know.
Speaker 3:
37:00
Nobody knows about what the exact future is going to be in the short run. We can't with fair certainty, say if you're gonna take a longer term view, the economy has grown as growing good. That's a real positive. And I think if you can just stand the volatility, the question is where things start to go down like they did in oh eight and they bottomed in March of [inaudible] nine nobody in the world wanted to invest or they had sold out and locked in permanent losses. And you know, keep this in perspective. You know, a dip as a dip. Align your risk with your, with your horizon. And by the way, there's not one strategy for everybody. You all are in different strategies, strategies, stages of your life. You have different goals, different things that you want to accomplish. Um, but you gotta have a plan. You've got to execute that plan. You've got to review that plan to make sure that you don't get sucked in and making a bad short term decision.
Speaker 4:
37:54
Yeah, I think about recent volatility, Ron, I'm in. What about the day when the market was down? 1,175 points? I mean, can you imagine, you know, go back to restart your career. You would have never guessed there'd be a day like that or if you did, it's over. I mean, there's something really bad gone earth and those days are normal by the way. Everyone, those things happen and you've got to be able to protect. I mean, that's a big reason why we share with everyone. Your downside protection is equal and probably more important than your upside possibilities there because no one wants the pain of going down again. And especially as you get close to retirement, you've got to be careful. And speaking of being careful, Ron, we actually heard this morning that this is one of the most dangerous flu seasons on record. Uh, and the vaccine.
Speaker 4:
38:43
What did we hear? That it's only been really a right about 30% at best affective. And I wonder how many people this year didn't get a flu shot because they just didn't want to deal with it. They didn't want to go get it done at a local pharmacy or at their employer or things like that because they hadn't been hurt before and the last seven years, so guess what, I'm going to avoid this and not even have to deal with it when a simple shot would have potentially avoided the risk they were taking, but they chose the easy route which was do nothing, which then could have caused pain and how many people got sick when they shouldn't have because they could've done a shot or they could have been involved or been proactive. Your health, not just your physical but your financial health. You got to protect your mental health.
Speaker 4:
39:31
You have to protect the field. Good packed factor R. And. B, we're actually, we've been talking, talking to the show, you were voice texting someone and I'm going to bring this up, but it was like, Hey, I look forward to just sitting down having time to relax and that's good. That's healthy for all of us. Had a drink. Okay, well I left that part out. But that, hey, sometimes that helps people relax. But I think about like this previous weekend sitting there, I was watching a little bit of a golf tournament and talking to my kids and my wife and having coffee. And there's sometimes there's no better feeling than that than relaxing in heavy, no fears or concerns or things and letting we move in and just the most rapidly paced life possible. Now that's the way the world is. And technology is a beautiful thing, but it's also a dangerous thing is it can consume us.
Speaker 4:
40:17
Um, and so the same way with risk is, is we can let risk consume us as well. And you gotta be able to feel comfortable in every way to approach it because, um, you can't oversimplify it either. I mean, think about we're in the second largest, longest bull market run record, low interest rates all time high national debt challenges with social security. I mean, the story you just shared on the widows and 83%, Ron. I mean, just, it makes me sick to my stomach. There's potential for world unrest. So what somebody to do, I mean, how do they approach that? This,
Speaker 3:
40:49
yeah, I mean, I, well we have some advisors in today that are looking to partner with us and for six years they've been thinking about leaving one of the big wire houses and, uh, and then I'd have, forget there's this, this and this. Like you're always going to have reasons to worry. There's always things going on. Life goes on. Companies are in business. They're gonna continue to make money, invest in good companies, although don't fall in love with them because, you know, you think about Amazon, you know, really killing the retail industry. Netflix eliminated blockbuster. Uber is killing the taxi business. By the way. Apple this morning was, uh, shown was one of the most innovative companies out there who thinks of big company being, um, uh, innovative. And they really changed the way that music was sold. And AIRBNB, you know, change the hotel profession. So technology's moving so fast. You can't just say, I'm going to put it away and forget about it for 50 or so. Many needs to be paying attention to it. But Pie and a question for you, you gave me some stats earlier. What is the one thing that is about to happen that could really have a profound impact?
Speaker 5:
42:02
Okay.
Speaker 4:
42:03
On what? On me? On the firm. On everything. Well, profound in fact besides you shaving your beard, but uh, yeah, no, there's actually a Twitter. I guess someone started on my beard. Yeah, I guess you're not like, you're like fake Pope Lena. You got fake beard Twitter. No out there. People need to know this. This is really big news. So you're talking about the silent problem inflation? No, I'm talking about the fact that any day now I want to be grandpa. Oh yeah, that's exciting. Any day now. Yeah. So we're, we're approaching, we're overdue date now and so I know that it's totally irrelevant, but I could, I feel like a little kid on Christmas morning. Is that why you keep checking your phone every twice because it was like, and I get, I'll leave it on all night and like I'm praying for the phone call and say, we've got to go to the hospital because Chelsea is going to be delivering my grandson. But Oh, that's exciting for your family. But this is a life event on what you do. And it's, I think about money.
Speaker 3:
42:57
It's, it's, it's a tool to help protect us, to help us get and provide for the things that we need as human beings. But money is not our life. You know? And this little guy's going to come into the world and it's a different world than I had. Different world than my parents and my grandparents. Not good or bad. It's just different. And the job that he is going to have someday, uh, probably doesn't even exist even close to existing today. I think you're going to have a complete change of all the jobs in our economy. Um, and that's happened three full times, you know, over the last, you know,
Speaker 4:
43:34
125 years. Yeah. Well, best of luck to you and Chelsea and will and uh, genie on the birth of your coming up. That's exciting for your family. A life event. Many of our listeners have had life events like this, Ron, and it's, these are the joys we want to celebrate. We let the hustle and bustle takeover, but these are, this is what life's all about. Family, friends enjoying what we talk about here at Carson Group.
Speaker 3:
43:57
It's true wealth. All the we have that money can't buy and death can't take away. That's really what it's all about. So I'm love to be able to share with our listeners, share it with my family here at the Carson grew up. It's such an exciting time, but let's talk in, we're going to end here with market volatility doing the right thing for you and understanding that your money isn't a firm's client but you, your goals and your objectives actually are and you need to be careful about how you allocate it. You know, don't panic, makes sure you're diversified. Stick with high quality whore holdings. Make sure you have an adequate cash bucket you can withdrawal from. If things are out of favor, maybe rethink your withdrawal strategy. Maybe even postpone retirement if you don't have enough of a cushion, but give us a call because we can help you look at the upside.
Speaker 3:
44:42
Downside. We'll give you a second opinion. There's absolutely no cost or obligation to do anything with us. If we can help such on the right direction. If you think you don't have enough money, that's not true and we're good at giving advice. You want us to speak at any one of your events? We can come out. There's a variety of topics we can talk, tax reform. We can talk about the macro, the world. We talked about alternative ways that you can have income. We're a great resource. I'm Ron Carson with Paul West. Give us a call. Eight eight eight four nine 85 13 you're listening to wealth and wisdom
Speaker 2:
45:16
risks, social security, income taxes, estate planning. Every week we talk about how to make your money go further in retirement right here on wealth from wisdom with Barron's hall of Fame Advisor, Ron Carson.
Speaker 1:
45:29
Okay, good. Here's the legal Mumbo jumbo. The opinions voiced and wealth and wisdom with Rod Carson or for general information only, and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual to determine what is appropriate for you. Consult a qualified professional. All indices are unmanaged. I may not be invested into directly. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle. No strategy. It's your success or protects from loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Advisory Services offered through Cwm LLC, an SCC registered investment advisor.