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Cotton futures found some support late last week, though traders will continue to navigate a holiday-shortened week and a busy economic calendar.
AI-assisted narration and summarization based on original reporting and data from PCCA.
SPEAKER_02
Welcome to Cotton Quick Take by PCCA, your short weekly update on the factors shaping cotton markets and the broader agricultural economy. Thanks for joining us. Let's take a quick look at what's moving the market this week. Cotton Futures found some support late last week, but the market continues to balance improving demand, favorable weather, and broader economic developments. July futures closed at 72.94 cents per pound, while December settled at 76.42 cents. Fun selling and position rolling pressured prices early in the week, though supportive export demand in USDA's June WASDI report helped stabilize the market. PCCA merchandiser David Canali provided insight into what small changes in this report could mean moving forward.
SPEAKER_01
This week's WASDI didn't contain many changes, but the changes that were made were friendly to prices. In the U.S., exports were raised 200,000 bales for the 25-26 crop, lowering both ending stocks as well as beginning stocks for the 26-27 crop to 4.2 million bales. We have seen consistent export shipments and very good sales in the last four reporting weeks. If shipments can continue at the same pace we have seen in the past four weeks, we could possibly see exports increased again next month, leading ending and beginning stocks even lower. The world numbers had a 640,000 bell decrease to beginning stocks, while production was unchanged at 116 million bells. Consumption saw a minor increase and still a healthy 121.76 million bells. These changes lowered ending stock 710,000 bells month over month to 71.13 million bells, but more importantly, a 6.14 million bell decline year over year. These numbers continue to lend support to New York futures prices.
SPEAKER_02
This week, traders are focused on the Federal Reserve meeting and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Walsh. Markets are also reacting to news of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which has eased concerns over energy supplies and reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in commodity markets. On the supply and demand side, USDA increased its U.S. export forecast to 12.2 million bales and lowered projected ending stocks. Globally, ending stocks were also reduced, reflecting stronger demand. Export sales remained encouraging, with strong buying interest from Vietnam and Pakistan helping shipments stay ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA's forecast.
SPEAKER_00
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SPEAKER_02
Looking ahead, attention is beginning to shift toward the June 30 acreage report, while weather and export demand remain key market drivers. Thanks for listening to Cotton Quick Take by PCCA. Be sure to join us next week for another quick update on the markets and the stories shaping the cotton industry.
