Cotton QuickTake October 5, 2026

Cotton gave back its recent bounce last week, with December futures falling 383 points to settle at 78.88 cents per pound. Tuesday brought the biggest move, with futures locking limit down before recovering some ground by Friday’s close. 

AI-assisted narration and summarization based on original reporting and data from PCCA.

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SPEAKER_02 0:00

Welcome to Cotton Quick Take by PCCA, your short weekly update on the factors shaping cotton markets and the broader agricultural economy. Thanks for joining us. Let's take a quick look at what's moving the market this week. Cotton gave back its recent bounce last week. December futures fell 383 points to settle at 78.88 cents per pound. Tuesday brought the biggest move, with futures locking limit down before recovering some ground by Friday's close. PCCA's Vice President of Marketing, Keith Lucas, explained the price action.

SPEAKER_01 0:31

The lack of specific guidance from the U.S.-China state visit was disappointing and helped lead to a decrease in futures prices. The strength of the U.S. dollar compounded this decrease in price, making U.S. cotton less competitive with foreign gross. The upcoming USDA WASDI report could provide a boost if production continues lower while consumption remains high for current crop.

SPEAKER_02 0:57

The stronger US dollar remains one of cotton's biggest challenges. It has climbed to its highest level since early 2025, as higher bond yields and expectations for another possible Federal Reserve rate hike have weighed on commodities. But there are some encouraging signs underneath the market, particularly on the demand side. Upland export sales topped 200,000 bales for the second consecutive week, suggesting buyers may be taking notice of lower prices. China returns from its holiday on Thursday, adding another demand factor to watch.

SPEAKER_00 1:30

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SPEAKER_02 1:51

Meanwhile, harvest is expanding across the Southwest. Recent rainfall came too late to help production in West Texas and could now create quality concerns with much of the crop already open. That puts even more attention on Friday's USDA Supply and Demand Report. USDA currently estimates the U.S. crop at 13.2 million bales, and the market will be watching closely for any reduction in the wake of a difficult season across the Southwest. So, after another tough week, the question is whether improving demand in a potentially smaller crop can help cotton find some support.