Iran War Spreads: Will the Economy Collapse? | w/ Esteban Carrillo

The conflict between the United States and Iran has entered a dangerous new phase, raising fears of a wider regional war and major disruptions to the global economy. In this episode of The Simardone Show, I am joined by Esteban Carrillo of The Cradle to discuss the latest developments in West Asia, the strategic calculations of the major powers, and where the conflict may be heading.

We begin by examining the collapse of the recent U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and the rapid escalation that followed. We discuss attacks on critical infrastructure, the expanding regional dimensions of the conflict, and whether there remains a realistic path to de-escalation.

The conversation then turns to the Gulf States and their role in the conflict, exploring the strategic importance of U.S. military bases in the region and the potential consequences if the war continues to expand.

We also examine Yemen's recently announced naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and its implications for Red Sea shipping, global trade, and energy markets. With one of the world's most important maritime corridors facing renewed disruption, we discuss what this could mean for supply chains, oil prices, and the wider global economy.

Finally, we consider the broader geopolitical picture and ask who stands to gain—or lose the most—from a prolonged regional war.

Topics include:

The latest U.S.-Iran conflict
Why the Iran memorandum of understanding collapsed
Prospects for escalation or a ceasefire
U.S. military bases in the Gulf
Saudi Arabia and the wider regional conflict
Yemen, Ansar Allah, and Red Sea shipping
The Red Sea crisis and global trade
Oil markets and the world economy
Middle East geopolitics
Who benefits from the expanding regional war?

If you enjoyed this conversation, please like, subscribe, and leave a comment. Do you think the Middle East is heading toward a wider regional war, or is there still a path toward diplomacy?

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to the Simrdoni Show. I'm your host, Aidan Simmerdoni. The Iran war is escalating as the US strikes Iranian civilian infrastructure and Iran eliminates American bases across the region. Meanwhile, Yemen has closed down the Red Sea, a key wireway for global trade whose disruption could cause a global economic collapse. Where is this conflict going? To break it down for us, I'm joined by Esteban Carillo from the news website The Cradle, which covers geopolitics in West Asia. Esteban, welcome to the Simmerdoni Show.

SPEAKER_01 0:34

Thank you so much for having me, Aiden. It's really a pleasure. And well, first of all, just congratulations on this new space as we continue to fight the good fight and try to bring um as much uh information as possible to people out there.

SPEAKER_00 0:47

Oh, of course. And you know, someone's got to cover it, so this is uh really important to do this. Um, so Esteban, you know, the United States and Iran, they previously signed a memorandum of understanding that lasted for, I think, roughly 20 days. And now in the last week or two, or several, it's time flies, um, the war has resumed for lack of a better word. The US is hitting Iran's ports and bridges, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran has responded by striking Gulf states and Jordan. So, how did we get to this point where we're back to this you know shooting match?

SPEAKER_01 1:22

I mean, I think this is uh like it was almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy. You know, I'm I I know you you follow the news pretty closely, Aiden. So um Iran has been uh uh I'm gonna say bamboozled, I can think of a better term, by the US uh at least uh you know three times over the past couple of years. They get dragged to a negotiating table and then they get hit, they get stabbed in the back. And this is uh a cycle that has been repeating itself even even longer, right? If you go back to the Vienna talks after uh during the Biden era and all of that, you know, and the Iranians are always coming, sitting down at the table, uh making proposals, you know, trying to move forward with this. Well, on the other side, it's as is been most often the case, it's just kind of buying time for one reason or another, or simply uh it's a waiting game until the Israelis come in and sabotage everything, right? Kick the table over, which is again something that we have seen happen multiple times now. So the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, I think many people, many observers uh around the world, I I certainly heard several uh say the same thing, was almost like uh an attempt by the US to just uh press pause, re-arm. Uh, you know, even the the I remember very clearly, Western media reports that they would have information, you know, like uh privilege information from the White House. They will report on conversations being essentially a boiling down to we'll see where we are in a couple of months. And here we are now in a couple of months. The war has restarted yet again, and yet again, actually, you know, in the past couple of days, I've been hearing a lot of noise about oh uh proposals for a new ceasefire, for a new memorandum of understanding, for a new diplomatic way. And it's just, you know, honestly, and just from my own personal uh perspective, it's tiring at this point just to see the same cycle repeat itself. But now at least you have new uh cards on the table, right? Uh as you said, Yemen uh essentially uh announcing a blockade on Saudi Arabia, which is massive. You know, uh the Saudis have been managing to bypass the Strait of Over Moose over the past uh few months uh via the Red Sea, and now apparently that route is uh it's is closed to them uh for the most part. We'll have to see how exactly this develops, you know, and the facts on the ground, uh how the Yemenis are going to impose this blockade. Although previously we've already seen this, right? Like the Yemenese essentially closed down uh the Red Sea during all of 2024. There was nothing the EU, the US, or even the Gulf states could do about it. Uh things are different now. We can get into that later. I know you are uh uh uh very well versed when it comes to Somaliland and all of that, but maybe we not get into it now, but yeah, you know, I think this is the state of things right now.

SPEAKER_00 4:01

Yeah, I mean, if uh it's kind of funny because, of course, I'm actually writing an article for you guys. I I know do a piece or two uh once a month or once every two months um on the Babel Mendeb closure. I definitely want to get into details on that. But going back to the Iranian negotiations, you'd mentioned the long history uh being bamboozled three times. I would also add this is something that has repeatedly happened. I know that, for instance, um uh Mohammed Morandi, who is, for instance, I know he's been on the cradle before, uh, quite a big name. He recommends always this book. It's called uh Going to Tehran. And in that book, they actually detail repeated attempts by Iran to work with the United States. We all remember the, or we also are often told about the Iran-Contra affair, which focused on obviously US domestic politics, but people forget the flip side of that was actually Iran was willing to work with the United States. In the 90s, actually, Iran also worked with the United States in helping to, for instance, bring weapons uh to Bosnia. The uh Iran, of course, uh also has helped U.S. allies. Kuwait, for instance, uh they actually took in refugees during the first Gulf War. Iran has tried to try cooperating with the United States when it came to even uh to a certain extent the war on terror, not agreeing with that war, but uh, for instance, being able to provide aid and assistance to Afghanistan, which borders along with Iraq. And what they got from that, of course, was being labeled as part of the axis of evil by uh George Bush, uh George W. Bush, uh, with regards to that. I'm going to go on because there were so many examples. The nuclear, the nuclear negotiations with uh Obama, you know, and uh they did everything they were supposed to do, and the United States did nothing in response. Iran was continued to be sanctioned for the most part, people were dying because they did not have access to key medical supplies. And then we have everything that's gone gone on in the last two years. And you're right, they come to the negotiating table, they what seems to be working in good faith, and then they get literally blown up, or their leader gets assassinated along with 160 schoolgirls. Why are why do they do this? I there's so many different views. I mean, some people say, Oh, you have to show this goodwill, you have to show you're working, uh, your work yet that you're gonna that you're willing to leave open a diplomatic solution. But Esteban, what's what's your take on this? Was this foolish of them or or what's going on here?

SPEAKER_01 6:30

I mean, I can see why people would think it's foolish. Um, you know, it it is pretty obvious uh for many, uh at least this perspective. I don't agree with it because at the end of the day, you know, first of all, I'm not Iranian. Second of all, uh I am not in the negotiating, you know, uh circle, so I don't actually know what conversations are happening there. And of course, Iran, just like any other country, has their own way to do diplomacy and has their own internal rules and their own internal system, right? I mean, the Persians have been around for thousands of years and uh they developed the you know, uh they developed diplomacy in a way and so many other things. So this is uh uh uh a culture that uh approaches things in a certain way, right? And in and also you you cannot um discount the fact that uh since the Islamic Revolution to this day, Iran has been cast, as you said, right, as the enemy, as uh as evil, as essentially you know, Satan's representative or narrative you listen to certain uh uh uh uh news outlets. And um, so it's it's always gonna be an uphill battle, right? Just for legitimacy in the international stage. Uh and Iran, unfortunately, due to the the US uh sanction regime imposed against them, just like any other country that faces uh illegal US sanctions, um they are uh they're battling upstream while also you know with a uh a news tide around their neck that is ever uh every every year gets tighter and tighter. So of course there has to be concessions, there has to be a ways around the different ways to do things, etc. Right. Uh uh so I think um you have to take all of this into consideration where you consider why did you know Iran is so willing to sit at the table? Because, okay, let's say they don't sit at the table, then what's the alternative, right? To essentially become everything that uh they already being portrayed as, right? Uh and I think actually it's very recent, uh, at least in my point of view, that the Iranians have been very willing to almost say, you know, I don't care about that anymore. I think since the killing of uh Ali Khamenei, there's been an obvious change within the the way that the Iranians are willing to approach uh, in particular the the response to the aggressions, right? Like the attacks on the um on Gulf infrastructure on US bases around the Gulf. You know, the past week and a half, they've been pommeling Jordan, they've been hitting just one target after the other inside Jordan, which was you know uh unheard of before, truly. Um and uh even the rhetoric, right? Like the way that they are talking about, you know, you mentioned Marandi. And Marandi ever so often he posts this tweet, which is kind of like a commentary itself of on the uneven uh uh uh balance that exists between the West and well, Iran in this case. He puts, you know, like all of the citizens of Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Saudi need to leave right now. Uh you've been warned, stuff like this, right? Which uh I never take as an actual warning per se, but it's a commentary itself on how uh Iranians are portrayed and just now how kind of Iran has grown sick of this and been like, hey, you're threatening genocide on our civilization. We're not just gonna lay down and take it, right? So I think it there it's it's a very complex situation. And actually, I I wanted to ask you a question, Aida, because this is very complicated. There's a very complicated topic that we're discussing today. You said earlier, uh a few minutes ago, you said, right, like we are kind of like uh barreling towards economic collapse. And I feel like during the first stage of the war, we were treating this outcome as uh as something that uh wouldn't benefit anyone. And I feel like now, in the in the point we are uh right now, that has changed. And I think even perspectives are changing. And I don't know what your opinion is on this, you know. Is the chaos the desired outcome? Is the destruction of Gulf infrastructure the desired outcome here? And I'm starting to lean towards I maybe, yes.

SPEAKER_00 10:21

Yeah, this is a question I've been also thinking about because you know, I I do wonder, yeah, it so you know, like the United States doesn't have any morality or ethics. So I'm not I would they would never save the Gulf states just out of that. But I do wonder, you know, if you let the Gulf states because it'd be very easy for Iran to completely obliterate the Gulf states. Uh, for instance, Kuwait has eight desalination desalination plants. Kuwait has roughly a population, I believe, of five million people. It only requires the destruction of two or three of those desalination plants, that's what turns seawater into regular water, for almost the whole country to be out of water. So I see this, and I think, okay, Iran could do this. Uh, I think the United States would be willing to sacrifice them, but then what signal does that send to allies? Like, why would any other country in West Asia ever work with the United States after this? Like, I just see if that ends up being the case, all the Gulf states of strategic strategy alone, wouldn't they just bandwagen with Iran at that point? What do you think about this, Esteban? Why would who would like? I mean, Israel, I think, and this is probably maybe we're getting at Israel, I think, absolutely benefits from the Gulf states being destroyed. Chaos, you know, if UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia all end up be being turned into Syria, that'd be great for Israel. But I don't know if it benefits the United States. What do you think?

SPEAKER_01 11:55

Well, you know, I feel like every day, uh, especially since the start of this war, but specifically since uh Donald Trump came back to office, every day that passes, uh, you see the US government and they act like a mafia. They act like a like a like a cartel, you know, full on. You know, I I don't know if you uh you saw breaking back, they remind me of uh uh uh uh Gian Carlos Posito's character, right? Like they're just a drug lord making decisions to benefit their own empire. And at this point, you know, it's actually worse than that. That the example I just gave, because at the end of uh uh there's not even an attempt to hide it anymore, right? Like they are very overt, like at the tariffs, the uh the the war itself, they what they did in Venezuela, right? Like they didn't kidnap the president, they kidnapped the country, they usually kidnapped the entire country and its resources.

SPEAKER_00 12:42

And Trump didn't even say, you know, before all the presidents, oh, human rights, democracy. He's like, nah, it's the oil. We're going for the oil.

SPEAKER_01 12:49

I mean, you know, on one hand, it's refreshing, right? Honestly, I find it refreshing that they're at least very being very honest about their uh the desires here, but at the same time, it's very terrifying because you know, like the threats against Canada, the threats against Greenland. You are you you just mentioned, right, like why uh would Gulf states decide to work with the US if they are the ones that open the door for you know uh widespread destruction? And you know, I would counter that by saying, well, you know, the US right now, in the way that they're acting and everything that they are building around the world, right? Like uh uh the the this control over energy uh routes, it makes me feel like uh it's almost uh like the position that the US is gonna start taking is you're literally with us or against us, right? Like uh remember uh Operation Freedom, that like 48-hour project that was gonna escort ships to the Strait of Ormuz? I feel like that is also like the seed for something that we're gonna uh see now and moving forward, which is uh kind of like a protection racket that the US, you know, with their uh navy all over the world or like their drones and etc., they're gonna be essentially uh coercing nations into either working with them or becoming the next target. And I feel like, for example, you see now what they're doing in the Western hemisphere, right? Like at the Don Road Doctrine, uh, the shield of the Americas, all of these things. I mean, it's literally threatening countries with destruction. I mean, look at Cuba, uh, look at Brazil, look at what they're doing with the elections in different countries. It's it's really in my eyes, it's it's war around the world on all fronts, using all of their tools at their disposal. And I don't see uh an adversary that can fight them in in this realm, right? Because right now Iran is fighting them 10,000 kilometers away from the US borders and also uh you know, kind of just like uh in this very uh insulated area where they are, right? But then you also have to take Ukraine and Russia, and everything at the end of the day points to China, right? And it's just insane the the the amount of uh of kineticism that the empire continues to to apply to all of their strategies. And uh, I mean, you know, that's that's just my read on what's happening right now.

SPEAKER_00 15:02

Yeah, but I also think it's gonna backfire because you know, are you with us, are you against us? You know, I I think there are gonna be some countries that say, okay, fine, we're against you. You know, our we're we're both uh, you know, we both live in Canada. The our government, not a fan of them at all. But like I did find it interesting once Trump upped these threats, our prime minister did go over to China and struck a bunch of trade deals. Now, how significant is that? Whatever, you know, it actually was decently significant, but it's just interesting, even that signal, like, okay, we can actually work with other people. I look at uh, you know, Oman and Qatar, which obviously are still in the US camp, but to a certain extent, they've also signaled their willingness to work with Iran. So I do think this kind of violence or this very this hubris, I'd call it a American arrogance, is going to backfire at some point. And I also think that it's not a sign of strength, it's actually a sign of weakness. When the United States was the only superpower after the fall of the Soviet Union, it was able to engage in, I don't want to say a low-level violence because there was always these mass wars going on, but to a certain extent there was this rhetoric, if if it's not a reality, at least the rhetoric of, oh, globalization, freedom of navigation, the rules-based order. And the reason why that existed, even if it wasn't followed, was because they had enough power that these things could go on in the United States would still benefit. And any countries that stood in the way, whether Somalia or Iraq, they would just take out. But I think this violence is actually this militarization, this outright annexation, shows that they're getting weaker. I think that's what's going on. I don't think it's a sign of strength. I think it's a sign of weakness.

SPEAKER_01 16:46

It it is, but uh, you know, uh a corner animal is uh is always uh is most dangerous, right? This is great when they become most dangerous. And uh it's true, everything you said, right? Like, of course, uh, you know, Mark Carney, he was also in Pakistan recently, right? And uh like trying to do uh different uh open up new roads, I guess, uh uh for Canada. You you see it with other countries, right? I like I always point, for example, to the uh the Asian bloc in Southeast Asia, uh, and how they have been pretty unwilling to start to stir any any any anything with China, for example, right, despite the uh what the US uh demands. But at the same time, it's um you know, like I said, you have uh an actor, uh a geopolitical political actor that is openly, embracingly acting like a like a drug lord, like you know, El Chapa Guzmán, Pablo Escobar, you name him. It's just like let's eliminate the competition, let's take over as much as possible, let's use our military prowess to coerce people into submission. And if that doesn't work, uh, you know, we'll use our economic uh power or control over the SWIFT system. And at the end of the day, you know, we are gonna have to see a confrontation here. And I think every day that does it, it's more and more uh dragging us towards uh uh a confrontation between the big powers, right? Between China, Russia, and I will put Iran now in that list as well, uh especially militarily, you know, with what they've been doing, and of course the US and uh whatever's left of NATO, uh, you know, countries that are just like uh itching for a war with Russia, despite the fact that uh you know everything's falling apart in Europe essentially. Um and and it's just gonna be right, like this this big battle for for resources. And what's actually to me scary is that in the middle of it, you have Israel. In the middle of it, you have the the the Israeli lobby in the US that is also you know, right now, you see it just like you said, the US is weakened, the Israeli lobby is also weakened. That is gonna make them just that much more dangerous moving forward because um internally in the US, what is there to fight back against this type of influence? And just look at what uh the State Department published a couple of days ago, right? Like naming dozens of organizations, political figures, journalists, i mean, everything activists, union organizers, as uh you know, McCarthyism is back with a vengeance, 100%. And again, you have to take all of these into account because the empire right now is just like battling on all fronts with as much force as possible.

SPEAKER_00 19:24

No, absolutely. And so if this was to turn to a larger conflict, let's say bringing in Russia and China, you know, there's a lot of people talking about oh, World War III coming. I'm just curious how that would look because for instance, I don't see, I just want to give it um maybe I'll go on a bit of a tangent here, but like for instance, there actually was a moment, I think maybe a couple months ago, Russia was a Russian ship in the Caspian Sea, I think was hit by Israel or the United States, and Russia is a very veiled threat was don't do that again, or pretty much Israel will be finished, like we will get involved, and you know, you think Iran's a problem, like get ready for Russia, Russian missiles to be hitting Tel Aviv, right? And then after that, there were no vessels, Russian vessels that were hit, at least by Israel. I mean, they're getting hit by Ukraine now. But I'm just curious, how would a country like Russia get dragged in, or how would China get dragged in? Because I also see actually, in a weird way, like China getting stronger from this. Yes, there is a disruption of oil, although China has actually mass uh strategic petroleum reserves far larger than the United States, and that has actually been offsetting the crisis for China. And the way I see it is China's looking at this and like you can't like you can't even like do anything to Iran. How are you gonna like stop us from taking Taiwan, for instance? Now, I don't think China's interest is actually in taking Taiwan, I think it's Western propaganda. But you know, how are you how are you gonna confront like China's thinking, how are you gonna confront us if you can't even take on Iran? So maybe going back to the question, Esteban, like how would a country like Russia or China get more involved in this? Because in my opinion, they don't want to get involved and they're actually doing a decent job of not.

SPEAKER_01 21:09

I think so, yeah, I agree with you, you know, and um it that that is the million-dollar question, how exactly? Because I think we we still think of world wars, when I say we, I just mean like the general public, uh, as uh, you know, the last one World War II, you know, like big ships going to fight, you know, soldier against soldier, face-to-face battles, whatever. Wor is so much different now. War is so much different right now. Um, you have to consider the economic aspect, you have to consider the the information and uh cyber acts aspect of it all. Uh drone warfare, right? Like Ukraine, the Ukraine front has on has been kept alive essentially because of drones, because of unmanned uh warfare. Essentially, that's the only thing that they have left in the front lines uh at this point. The Ukrainians and they're causing a lot of pain to the Russians, right? Like, I mean, when we talk about the the US acting as a drug lord and uh or as a Mafia boss just taking over the competition. Well, also look at the attacks inside you Russia over the past few months, right? Over the past year, all of a sudden, uh one after the other, uh, you know, a long list of uh Russian critical Russian infrastructure has been hit. And, you know, the war in Iran, what did the same thing in Russia, uh the uh the takeover of Venezuela, uh what they're doing in the Arctic Ocean, you know, what NATO is doing around Greenland, uh, etc. All of this has, at the end of the day, uh the target is China, right? It's always about the at the end of the day, China. And uh, but I think and I feel like uh the actions in Iran uh point towards this that uh there's been uh a change of uh of of of the equation within the White House, uh because uh we keep hearing about all the the dwindling stocks, right? Like the Pentagon is running out of missiles, running out of this, running out of that. Uh, but it's always with the asterisk that is the running out for a future conflict, right? Yeah. So maybe, you know, like the calculation now internally is like, do we even want the future conflict? Maybe what all we need to do right now, and and I feel like this is what what the what's happening, it's we just need to corner China. We don't need to go and fight them directly. We just need to take over enough of what uh isn't it they need in order to you know slow them down, in order to strengthen the dollar. You know, we've been hearing about the fuel crisis for months at this point, and it just doesn't materialize, right? And you can point many fingers at what's happening, right? Like uh market manipulation, the the strategic petroleum reserves, uh, etc. Like like many different things. In particular, and I'm talking here the crisis in the West, in the US, uh and and in other countries of uh of NATO, uh in other places, they are living in crisis already. But um, you know, I feel like that they've been really uh juggling, you know, all of these balls up in the air and managing actually to achieve some of their goals. Now, long term will they actually get to that point in which you know empire is uh cemented as the only option and uh you know USA forever. No, I doubt it. I also, you know, I feel like as you said, they they are at the end of the day gonna weaken themselves. This is you know, you just need to look at history to understand how empires uh fall. But at some point, uh, I do think that the Russians and the Chinese are gonna have to realize, like, hey, you know, like we can't just continue to sit around and take all of the hits, right? I think it was Lavrov, uh Sergei Labrov, who a few days ago said, we are ready for a confrontation for the West, in so many words. The Chinese have also, you know, completely increased the rhetoric over the past year. I mean, just look at what they did last year uh in response to the tariffs, right? With the critical minerals and the magnets and all of that stuff, uh, essentially uh showing just how capable they are to put an end to uh the US, uh uh especially the AI buildup, right? So, I mean, how are they gonna join? I think it's gonna have to be like another provocation. It's gonna it's gonna be a big provocation coming from the White House that essentially finally drags them into this conflict. But also, you know, I I do feel there's this saying uh that goes uh when your enemy is making a mistake, don't interrupt them. So I do feel that at least the Chinese are kind of like uh you know taking that position right now.

SPEAKER_00 25:18

No, yeah, that's that's from the art of war, and exactly the yeah, I think that's that is why China has been sitting uh to a certain extent on the sidelines, although others would say they've been more active than sometimes we think. Uh, especially sometimes there's ideas of maybe Chinese intelligence helping Iran here and there, especially. I think so. I think that is actually completely the case, yeah. Yeah, and uh it's it's it reminds me of that funny meme it keeps circling well uh around of uh uh it says uh China do nothing when you know. So so there we have it. Um, this does want to lead me to another question I was gonna ask. So would you say, so I'm just curious how you see this conflict continuing for uh the the immediate future, escalation, de-escalation. So we have definitely seen escalation in the last couple weeks. I would say that in the last couple days, there has at least been a small reprieve with the United States, as far as we can tell, in the last couple days actually not hitting Iranian infrastructure. There was even a video I saw yesterday of CentCOM hitting what some experts were saying were pretty much empty missile silos. So that could have just sent been CENTCCOM being stupid, but I also see that as a de-escalation. Um, but you know, I think the greater arc of all this is escalation. What do you what do you think? Where do you think things are going?

SPEAKER_01 26:37

I mean, I do think uh we we are right now uh in in an out-of-control escalation ladder, right? Um because I mean then take this with a grain of salt, but I don't see the Iranians going back to the negotiating table. And I think it would be very uh a very poor decision of them uh to go back at the negotiating table when the US decides. Remember that uh the the Islamabad MOU was signed. I'm sorry, uh the Islamabad MOU was signed after uh Donald Trump himself declared uh a ceasefire. I remember one uh in the morning he declares I'm gonna commit genocide against Iran. 12 hours later, he's like, whoop, war's over, we're stopping our attacks. Um and then Iran goes, right, to the negotiating table. Well, why we have a recent history? Um I feel like now Trump is gonna try to do that again because the US is very pretty much convinced that they can start and stop this, right, at their at their own uh at their will. Um I think the Iranis are not gonna go for it. And I think that's actually something that, well, that maybe they should have considered during the first round of the war. They have their own considerations, of course, for why they decided to to go uh have the talks at the end of the day. Uh, but remember that even when they decided to for the talks, that you had popular mobilizations in Iran saying, why are we meeting with these people? Don't forget Moshtaba Hamene's letter, in which he said, might disagree. We're having negotiations, but you know, I'm willing to give them a chance. I don't see them making the same mistake again. And this is why you're seeing, you know, Yemen now all of a sudden activated. You have to keep an eye on Iraq as well, right? Iraq is saying uh the militias in Iraq are saying we will join any escalation, despite the fact that now the government in Iraq is trying to have them um uh disarm, right? To to disarm the the anti-terror militias that are uh supporting Iran uh Iran. Hezola is not defeated in Lebanon. Hezbollah is still there, they still have their capabilities held. They showed that they have capabilities now that the Israeli army has absolutely nothing that they can uh uh do against them, right? I'm talking about the FPB drones. So I do feel that we are about to see the resistance axis come out in full force uh and join this battle much more than we were beforehand, right? Because I think the equation in Tehran has completely changed.

SPEAKER_00 28:56

And I think Iran also sees itself in a stronger position to a certain degree, uh, and this is gonna segue eventually to my next talking point. But you know, we saw, for instance, even recently uh the that plane that was carrying a delegation of Ansar Allah back from Ali Khamenei's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral. And yes, Saudi Arabia went ahead and bombed the runway. But I think even the fact that Iran is testing, for instance, Saudi Arabia's genocidal blockade against Yemen shows that there is a sign of strength. The fact that's hitting these bases in Jordan and killing US military members, right? I think we are starting to see that Iran saying, okay, actually we can even do more now than we could do back in February.

SPEAKER_01 29:44

Yeah, completely. You know, but like even the the attacks recently, uh, you've been hearing it uh of uh from even um US sources talking about how the missiles now are essentially uh bypassing all defenses, right? And this is thanks to the work that Iran did in the first stage of the war, right? Like during the first 40 days of the war, they essentially wiped out uh US radar systems in the region. Uh and now they're using more advanced technology. We know Iran has hypersonic uh missiles, uh uh and and you even see it in the attacks in Jordan, right? Like the missiles at the end maneuver. They change uh they they change gear, they change objectives, etc. And this is why all of a sudden now you're hearing about uh casualties, right? Yeah. Remember, in the in the first stage of the war, we barely heard about any US casualties. Um not that they're open about them, right? Like the US is always hiding uh these numbers, but um now it's like over the past days, I think we've heard about five or or so uh US service members uh who've died. So of course, Iran sees themselves in a more empowered position. And also, I think uh now to them the situation it's it's very, very clear, right? Like if we don't win this battle, it's over for us. It's over, not just for the government, not just for the Islamic uh republic or the Islamic revolution, etc. It's just gonna be another Syria, but worse. And look at what's happening in Syria right now. I mean, I would actually say it's probably gonna be more like a big Libya, like a bigger Libya, right? Just a disaster, an absolute disaster, because uh there is no desire here for nation building. There's no desire here for oh democracy and human rights and whatever uh used to be the excuse. It's just about chaos, it's just about chaos and destruction and uh and complete control. That's what they're fighting against. And that's why I also don't think that uh internally there's gonna be that much appetite for uh, you know, yet another round of negotiations.

SPEAKER_00 31:38

No, that makes a lot of sense. So how does the war end if Iran is not gonna come back to negotiations? I think it's a bad phrasing because I'm making it seem like Iran's at fault here. They're not. They're not. They've been, they've been uh every time they literally every time it's almost like if they negotiate, they're more likely to get attacked than if they don't. Uh so if Iran reasonably decides not to come back to the negotiating table, uh, how does the war end? Does the United States have to eventually give up some major concession? Like even before they come to some sort of formal agreement, all the US forces leave the Gulf region, or the United States says, okay, you know what, we're gonna give you that $300 billion up front. Like, will Iran just ex extract more concessions from the United States? Like, how would this eventually it's gonna have to come to an end? I guess it could end with a nuclear uh uh cloud, but other than that, like how does this end ultimately?

SPEAKER_01 32:36

Let's hope not. Let's hope it doesn't end like that. Uh, I mean it's for sure it's gonna end with some sort of diplomatic accord that you said, like at some point, some uh deal is gonna be signed, be it uh a few months from now, be a couple of years from now, who knows how how much longer they plan to keep this going. But the one thing that is certain is that uh the Iranians, well, first of all, the Iranians will come back to the negotiating table. You know, what I said previously, uh I didn't mean like they will never come back and sit down. We refuse. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly. They will come back, yeah. They will come back, absolutely, they will come back. But I think uh I'm pretty certain that this time they will come back after making sure that the other side has suffered, has suffered enough to never want to restart this uh war again. And I think that may have been the the calculus back in uh what was it, June uh or uh April, I think, right when they went when the first uh talks uh began. Um it was okay, you know, we dragged you to the to the edge of the abyss, we showed you that we control our moves, we destroyed all of your raiders, we were bombing uh Israel like it was nothing. Uh we we showed our capabilities, right? To the world. We we showed that we're capable to fight you and actually defeat you. Uh, because I think in the first round, Iran was victorious, you know, like uh unquestionably. You just need to look at uh uh what each side uh achieved. Uh uh I think this time it's gonna be okay, we're gonna push you into the abyss, right? Like even if you come with uh uh with us with a new memorandum and whatever, I think the Iranian, especially the military leadership, are gonna be very uh dead set on being like, we need to continue hitting them. We need to hit at least one of the aircraft carriers, you know. Like uh we need to get to sink at least one of these uh ships that is, you know, supposedly there for self-defense, 10,000 kilometers away from uh their nation's borders, and uh create uh energy catastrophe, uh actually push the West into the situation that we keep uh being warned about and drag this out uh close enough to the elections so that on top of everything, there's a political cost. Now, to me, I I you know it makes sense. It makes sense, you know, from a from a uh from a warfare, from a battlefield perspective, yes, like uh you need to show your enemy that you're not playing anymore and that they can't they can't keep this cycle of uh start and stop. Uh we sit down for a couple of weeks and then we bomb you again. Um it needs to end, it needs to end definitively. The problem is, and to me, is actually, you know, right now that the big question is is the US gonna be willing to uh to to to sit down back again? Uh or are they just gonna take in all of these all of these hits? And uh, you know, it really worries me what we've been seeing in the declarations over the past few days from the US, right? Where the the way they're talking about uh Chinese interference in elections, right? Like Donald Trump essentially saying we're not gonna recognize those results come November. Now you have eyes running rampant on the streets, and I mean everything else that we've already mentioned and that we've in and we've talked about. And uh, you know, Donald Trump is out for himself. He's out for himself, literally. Just like this man cares about his own uh uh skin more than anything else, or more than anyone else. And then around him, you have uh this circle of of lunatics, you know, Pete Hexet, Marco Rubio, uh uh Paula White, that lady, the uh the the the evangelical lady in the White House. I mean, all of them one more, one crazier than the other. And then you also have the Zionists, you have the the the the the Mossad, right? Representative, you have uh Kushner, you have Whitkoff, which is just I mean, the list just gets worse and worse. And uh they're all uh kind of after the same thing, which is their own enrichment, right? It's not about the US, it's not about like alliances or anything. This is about their own pockets at the end of the day. So you look at the stocks of the oil companies lately, uh Aiden. Yeah, right? I know everyone's suffering, and Chevron is just like up in the sky.

SPEAKER_00 36:33

And and they're even making money off of like uh calcium polymarket bets because they have inside information. Oh, will this place be struck? You know, and then they have info on that, they put their money and they get back uh you know.

SPEAKER_01 36:44

You saw the thing about truth social of like the memberships or the subscriptions.

SPEAKER_00 36:49

Is it like people will get advanced alerts on Trump or what they will get, yeah, like they will get his tweets earlier, so they can also be in on the on the market manipulation.

SPEAKER_01 37:00

They are so brazen about this corruption that it really does make me think like, man, like okay, the Iranians maybe they will they will like really go out and really, you know, like uh get rid of all the all of the US bases in the region, and even that might not be enough to put an end to this because I feel like on the other side they are relishing in the chaos.

SPEAKER_00 37:18

Yeah, and it's a it's a bit of you know, it's a bit of a principal agent problem. You know, empires require leadership to carry out the purposes of empire. But then I think actually what a lot of the Trump administration is doing actually look at we all agree it's morally and ethically wrong, but I think even strategically they're they're shooting themselves in the foot. But if that continues to make you know these individuals, not the country in general, but these individuals money and uh builds power for them, then what do they care to a certain extent? So no, very fascinating. So I do want to switch gears a bit. We have what's really huge in the last couple days. This involves uh the Yemen getting involved in the conflict now. Uh they have done that before, but specifically a blockade against Saudi Arabia, ships in the Red Sea. Uh Esteban, I want to just ask, uh you know I know all about this, but how significant is this? This is like what's going on here? Why did maybe two questions? Why did why is Yemen doing this? And uh what are the potential effects on the region as well as let's just say for the global economy?

SPEAKER_01 38:29

Uh well, why is Yemen doing this? You know, there's always these reports, and I think you you are pretty uh well aware of this, uh Aiden, right? Like they say uh Iran tells Yemen to do this, Iran tells Yemen to do that. And the reality is like, no, the Yemenis are actually making their own decisions uh uh in consideration for the larger right of uh axis of resistance, right? Like uh there is always conversations, there might even be coordination, but but there's no actual structure of you do this, you do this, you do this, right? Like somebody uh telling each other what to do, they each make their own decisions. Now I think the Yemenis and the answer is twofold, right? One is yes, this is a support front for Iran. It's very clear. Uh they've been saying it for a while now that we will stand on the side of Iran no matter what, and we will do this, do that, and etc. Uh, the other one is, of course, well, the fact that since 2023, the Saudis have also brazenly ignored uh ceasefire agreement. You know, UN backed uh agreement with with Ansar Allah uh in Yemen to, well, first of all, leave the blockade on Yemeni ports uh and points of entrances.

SPEAKER_00 39:35

Which has, I just want to interject, which has literally killed hundreds of thousands of people from starvation, uh diabetics unable to get insulin. It's it's uh some people don't describe it as a war, they actually describe it as a genocide. Yeah, continue.

SPEAKER_01 39:47

No, absolutely, Aaron. I mean, I always like to remind people too, before Gaza, it was Yemen that was the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. And it was created by Saudi Arabia with the support of its uh Gulf Arab allies and of course NATO as well. Uh, so Yemen has the uh the right to impose this equation on on Saudi Arabia, right? Like even in their statement, they say we have been under blockade for about a decade now. Uh, as you said, uh great calamity inside of Yemen, and we have the right to fight back, we have the right to resist. And now, because we have the capabilities, we're gonna do the same to you. Now, I still personally have questions about how exactly this is gonna be enforced because they were very embracing the Yemenese, right? They said, all ports and all airports, yeah. And uh, and I think it's actually gonna be more focused. I think it's gonna be more focused, especially in the in the Red Sea, right? Uh and now, uh, so so that that's the two reasons, right? Support for Iran, and also just uh as a reaction to the fact that it's been uh about three years since they signed the ceasefire agreement, or uh at the very least, it was a de-escalation agreement, and essentially nothing has changed uh for Yemen in regards to the blockade.

SPEAKER_00 40:58

And then and wait, just before we move on to the effects and just a little further, I do want to say because because you're wondering how they're gonna enforce this. I'm I'm literally writing you guys an article on this. Yeah, I am. At least I am yeah, it's so so I'm not sure when it comes to airports, but when it comes to the naval blockade, it's actually quite relatively easy. The reason for that is you don't need to stop every single ship. You actually don't even need to stop one of a hundred ships, you just need to seize or destroy a few ships, and that does two things. One, it raises the insurance premiums. So a lot of maritime shipping and vessel companies are just not going to travel through there. Like it's gonna be literally, you know, not even just Saudi Arabia, but anyone. If it's a if it's a South Korean ship, I don't care, a Liberian ship, whatever it is, they're not gonna travel through there because it's it's gonna actually end up costing them more than whatever the value of the cargo is because their insurance premiums are so high. And the second thing is they just also captains crew do not want to get caught in the crossfire. So that's a yeah. So just to give an example, for instance, during the previous blockade that Yemen did in starting in 2023, they actually Esteban only seized two Israeli-linked ships, just two, and yet the amount of cargo going to port uh Islat, I might be mispronouncing that, but it's the only Israel's only port on the Red Sea, decreased in the first month by 85%. And then by 2024, there were no ships going there. So they they they only got two ships, and then the port saw after a couple months, no further ships at all. And actually, that port by 2025 went bankrupt. So I don't know how they're gonna do with airports if they are saying they're gonna do a blockade by I heard them, yeah. You're right, it was a maritime blockade. It's just a maritime, it's just a maritime blockade. So, so it's actually pretty it's relatively easy to enforce. Now, Yemen, of course, is gonna bear the consequences of that. Or actually, that's that's that's gonna be one of my follow-up questions. I do think uh Saudi Arabia is gonna escalate things further. Uh, but they can do it. And given that's the case, Esteban, what what will be the effects of this? Uh, I want to hear from you on this.

SPEAKER_01 43:15

Uh well, I mean, it it's gonna be yet again, uh, just a war situation than what we already saw with our moods, right? I uh uh I said a few minutes ago, we haven't yet seen the consequences of of this crisis materialize uh uh in in many places in the West. But in the in the Southeast of Asia, uh and uh you know in Africa, in Latin America, etc., in other countries, you have seen it materialize, right? Like we we kept talking about oh uh oil prices, not oil prices, the price of a barrel of oil uh is gonna rise to 200. And officially, it never happened. But it actually did happen in the ports of entry, right? Like we're actually uh cargo exchanges hand and money is paid for something, then yeah, you were talking about a 200 or more. I think uh it was Sri Lanka that was. Paying like almost $300 for a barrel of oil. It was ridiculous, right? Like the figure. So this is just gonna get worse. And once again, we go back to what I was saying earlier, which is uh, or what we were saying earlier, right? Like the US has no consideration for what happens anywhere else, right? They don't care what happens in, I don't know, Bangladesh. They don't care what happens in uh in uh uh I don't know, Thailand, right? Like uh you name it, even within their own allies. I think they've shown very clearly that they don't care what happens to Europe, where they don't care what happens to Canada, etc. Uh so uh this is gonna be a crisis that again the global south is gonna bear, right? And especially because out of the out of the red uh out of the uh Persian Gulf, most of the exports either go to China or to countries uh in the southeast of Asia or in the global south. So it's um it's a situation in which you continue to create this crisis for countries that are still, you know, like uh uh well, third world countries or just like uh uh US allies that may or may not be uh you know willing to start up uh stuff with their neighbors, in particular, you know, when it comes to the Southeast of Asia and China, etc. Um, so I think we're gonna see a crisis again focus in these countries, in these places, in these areas, right? Which begs the question that you asked, Aiden. Like at some point, people are gonna be asking the question, which is what is the benefit of being an ally of the United States again? Because it just keeps getting worse for us. And and uh, you know, I think even for example, in Canada, you're already seeing that, right? Like the popular opinion right now of the US is I mean, uh, China's more they've done polls.

SPEAKER_00 45:36

China has people in Canada have a more favorable view of China than they do of the United States, which is huge because uh you and I we remember this when uh Canada uh arrested uh Meng Wangzhou, uh that major CEO uh of China, and then relations completely got destroyed, and there was all this anti-China rhetoric in Canada. Now China is more popular in Canada than the United States, right? Yeah, this is what's going on.

SPEAKER_01 46:03

The narrative is never gonna outweigh the material reality of people, right? So they can tell you they can tell you all of the stories they want, but at the end of the day, uh, and especially in these countries, right? Uh uh you see you know what the tariffs are doing, what the the the or moons crisis is doing. Hell, like even just like what the US tech companies are doing, right? Like today I was seeing a report about data centers in Ontario, like the spread of data centers in the middle of these uh insane wildfires that are causing uh uh that that are being called like you know the biggest uh in so many years. It's um it's a situation that continues to build upon itself, right? So at some point, at some point, and I think, for example, we will look back in history and be like, well, yeah, like Iran was kind of one of the nations or Yemen, right? I think Yemen is a nation that has almost led by example for the past few years, right? They were literally the only country on the planet to open a front in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza in an attempt to put a stop to the genocide, right? Like nobody else did that. The Yemenese did it, and then they they fought the US Navy, the EU Navy, and they sent them packing out of the Red Sea. So, again, like the question is just gonna be like, you know, not just what is gonna be the answer for Iran, is what is gonna be the answer for Yemen, because you haven't been able to figure out Yemen in so long now.

SPEAKER_00 47:20

No, exactly. Now they're doing this blockade, and I just wanna, you know, I'm gonna be honest, I've been pulling out my hair because I think this is actually almost more serious than the Strait of Hormuz being closed. Because just for listeners to know, the Yemen closing the Red Sea, there's a narrow area of water called the Babel Mendeb Strait. Uh, it's in that's just Arabic for Gate of Tears. It's definitely living up to its name, needless to say. 12% of all maritime trade passes through here, one quarter of cargo ships. And this area has only gotten more important because, of course, Saudi Arabia cannot export its oil through the Persian Gulf. So if you look at a map, the only way it can export its oil is through the Red Sea. And this is quite significant. We're looking at five to seven percent of all the world's oil going through the Red Sea through what's called the Saudi East-West Pipeline. And we're already going to enter an energy crisis, but now with an additional five to seven percent of all oil, global oil missing, for comparison, that's the same amount as what happened during the 1973 OPEC crisis. So this is super serious. And you know, we're talking about the effect on the global south, uh, especially Africa, uh, countries like Sri Lanka. But Astaban, what do you think Saudi Arabia's response is going to be? Because I have two views on this. One is they can't let this happen. They can't let Yemen do this. So they have to up the attacks, they have to get their proxy in Yemen attacking Ansir Allah, right? Who are the ones doing this blockade. But on the other hand, the way I see it is if Saudi Arabia escalates with Yemen, all it takes is one drone to blow up the East-West pipeline, for Saudi Arabia to be even in a worse position. All it takes is one drone to hit, you know, one of the major airports, for Saudi Arabia to be further blockaded now by air. So what do you see happening here? Because also I will say, like, you know, Saudi Arabia bombed the airport. That's part of the reason that that was the final final straw for Yemen. That's why the blockade came about. But I haven't seen a lot of activity in the past couple days. Although, I mean, it has been less than 24 hours at the time recording since the blockade was announced. What is it? What is Saudi Arabia's response gonna be? I I I don't know. Like, give it give it to me, please.

SPEAKER_01 49:51

I mean, you know, a few minutes ago you said something that I forgot to answer, which was like uh maybe are we gonna see the Arab state side with Iran? And I I I I I uh you know, I feel like uh that's never gonna happen. I just feel like the Arabs in particular, the Gulf Arabs are they have such a slavish mentality, you know, and and no offense to any people from the Gulf who may be watching. I mean, you're the leaders, I mean the leaders, of course, they have such a slavish mentality, and just like I mean, look at what happened to Qatar, right? Like uh their capital gets bombed, uh the Parsfield gets bombed too, the one they share with Iran. And this is just like a few months after they give Donald Trump this huge plane, right? And and they say, We're gonna give you a trillion dollars in investment, and they will double down on this on this, right? So when you ask me what is Saudi Arabia gonna do, I mean, they're really calling a bind. I mean, as you said, they have to respond to Yemen. There has to be a response, right? Like there's no there's no the other the only other way out is to accept what they already agreed to in 2023 when they sign the agreement, you know, lift the blockade, uh, stop the aggression against Yemen, etc. That could be an answer. I don't see them going for that one yet. Um, you also have to consider Aidan for whatever Saudi Arabia is gonna do, the defense pact that they signed with Pakistan last year, right? Yes, everyone made a big deal about it, how it had like a nuclear component to it, too, right? So is Pakistan gonna get tracked into this? I highly doubt. I mean, honestly, I highly doubt that's gonna happen. I feel like this defense, this Saudi Pakistan defense pact is gonna be continue to be watered down uh as this war uh prolongs, because whenever you talk about Pakistan, you need to talk about China at the end of the day, right? Like uh the Chinese angle when it comes to Pakistan. And um, so I mean Saudi Arabia um is they don't have a solution, right? The Suez Canal is not a solution. Babel mandate is no longer a possibility, straightover moves is closed. I mean, they have to find a way to get the United States to stop this war. That really is the only solution here uh uh uh for the Saudis uh at the end of the day, right? And I think uh that's why you have seen even during the first stage of the war, right? You you were seeing a lot of movement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and uh Egypt. I remember uh Pepe Escobar called him uh the four Sunnis, which I think is actually uh a pretty great uh uh uh uh uh name for them, uh you know, to go uh um to essentially go and try to put an end to the war, to find a solution, right? Because this is only benefiting uh very uh few amount of people, and everyone else is bearing the brunt, right? Saudi Arabia already had to pull that back on their uh Vision 2030 plans, and uh it's starting to take debt over the past couple of years, right? Like the Saudis all of a sudden started taking on debt to for their mega projects, etc. So they are now with Yemen just completely cutting a bind, and uh they might reignite the war without Pakistani help. I think that's actually uh what uh what we're gonna see, right? As you said, the past couple of days we haven't really seen uh much of an escalation, uh, but then also take into consideration that I think today was the first time that the Yemen is directly uh forced two vessels to turn back from Saudi ports. So this is just getting started. We're more than likely gonna see earthstrikes in Sanaa, we're more than likely gonna see airstrikes in Hodeira. Uh the activation of, and you know this much better than I, of uh the the forces within Yemen that you know are uh are working for the Saudi-led coalition. And don't forget also Somaliland, it's right there. And the Israelis are gonna be chomping at the beat to uh to enter this war at some point because the other angle of this war right now is just like uh you know Israel or their kind of their absence from it. And I also don't think that one's gonna be uh uh very long, it's not gonna be lasting very long. Uh we we are about to see uh an expansion of this war, unlike what we saw before. And again, the cut the the consequences are gonna be just as massive. And just one last thing, Aiden, because I wanted to add very briefly, you know, when we talk about the crisis of of of the fuel that flows through uh uh Babyland, Strait of Ormoes, etc., you also need to talk about the fertilizers. No, it's terrible. That's even worse.

SPEAKER_00 54:05

It's terrible because yeah, um urea, fertilizer, phosphorus, uh, and then and this is an absolute disaster because this is increasing prices for people in the global south, farmers there. Uh, they are they already don't have a lot of money, that's the case. It is gonna also mean a major world food crisis. You know, Esteban, needless to say, like this is the stuff I it's it's and what's wild is I'm pulling out my hair about this to be honest. Like, I'm actually sometimes having trouble with sleep because I'm thinking, okay, Persian Gulf, uh, Strait of Hormoose has been closed now for mostly for the last uh four or five months. Now we have the Babel Mendeb. The Red Sea was a bit of a relief line to bring out oil through Saudi Arabia and bring some stuff to Saudi ports. Now that's cut off. It does remind me of the days, weeks, and months before the pandemic shutdown happened. I remember listening to all the stuff, I was like, could it really be that bad? Could it really be that bad? And it was. I feel like we are going towards that. I mean, and the other thing is also look, it we've been kind of pushing off the energy crisis through market manipulation, through actually, thanks to China, which has drastically reduced its imports of oil. If anyone wants to know why you're not paying, uh gotta be careful with my numbers because I'm Canadian, uh dollars per liter. Uh, Americans, if you're wondering why you're not paying, you know, $6, $7 a gallon, thank China. China's drastically cutting its oil imports. And there was also this market manipulation because I don't want to nerd out too much. I'm hoping I actually have an energy guest uh for my next week. But needless to say, one of the reasons why we haven't seen oil skyrocket is also because as long as there's the potential, even just a 1% chance of a deal, the oil futures remain low. Because like, okay, oil can once the once the trade for moves fully reopens, oil can resume. Uh, same thing with the Bablemendem. But if you start to get, for instance, Saudi Arabia fighting Yemen, Yemen can hit oil facilities. That actually ends up being supply destruction, and you absolutely are going to see oil shoot up the second that happens. If they destroy the east-west pipeline, forget it, you know, uh find a remote job because this is very, very serious. And yet you're right, the United States doesn't care, you know, and but I think people should really be raising the alarm on this because this is a very serious situation we're going into. And I also want to add, it's while the conflict is spreading, you know, looking at a map, it's it's also Estaban, like, you know, Iran has this thing called like the unity of fronts, which is the idea of the war in Lebanon, the war in Yemen, and the war against Iran are all part of the same conflict. I'm also seeing a unity of fronts, unfortunately, from the other way, from the United States, where it's like, okay, we're gonna attack Iran, now we're gonna attack Lebanon, now we're gonna attack Yemen. And if you look at a map, you know, the Ukraine, first of all, Ukraine and Iran aren't actually that far away if you look at a map. Yes, it was the Black Sea and Turkey, but they're not as far away as Canada is to Iran, for instance. You have you have Ukraine, Iran, then Yemen, then across from Yemen, the uh the Somalia conflict, this whole area. I don't know, someone has to also write an article on what happens when you have these geographically proximity conflicts going on. Needless to say, I find it very serious. I do want to finish off with one last question though. Who do you think Esteban is the biggest winner of this conflict in terms of countries, not in terms of Pete Heggseth or whoever making money off of Calci, but which countries do you think have benefited the most? Willingly or unwillingly?

SPEAKER_01 57:55

Okay. Um I mean, honestly, the the the country that is right now reaping the only gains is Israel. Because while everything else is happening, they are uh uh expanding their control of the West Bank, their occupation of the of the West Bank. Uh they are you know uh Gaza the same, but they continue to take more land. The south of Lebanon is essentially the you know, it's just like they continue uh with their land grab, with their land theft. Um they are not, you know, yes, you talked about the Port of Eilad, you're talking or uh uh any of the other like the crisis that they face internally. None of them compared to the crisis that uh other nations are facing as a result of these wars, right? Uh either the the the the objectives of the war or just like people who are suffering uh, you know, by uh as a result. What's happening is overstate, you know, Israel in their uh in their greater Israel project right now, the biggest winners of all of this, right? And I think they've been the biggest winners of all of these wars for the past 25 years. Um then, other than that, I mean it it it's uh it's a difficult question uh uh to answer. I mean, you know, I don't disagree with you when you said I think China right now it's uh it's uh I I wouldn't say there are uh um like really I mean they're fine, they're trying to find they have to find ways to strengthen you know their energy uh uh industry or just any other thing, right? Like they the the the Chinese have for now how long is it like 50 years? They have been implementing their five-year plans, right? They announce what they're gonna do these next five years, they do it, they review, they announce again, they and they continue, right? And that's how they have lifted at like about a billion people out of poverty. So I don't foresee them all of a sudden now like scratching their heads and being like, oh my god, what are we gonna do? Right? I'm sure they already have answers. And at the end of the day, they're gonna look out for themselves, right? Like I always say, especially to countries in the global south, don't really expect help to come from anywhere. The help is gonna have to come uh from within, from us, and and even in the north as well, right? Like all the nations that are being threatened. Uh, other than that, I mean, really, it's a very short list, Aidan. I don't know, I don't know. I cannot think of many other countries that are really uh, you know, governments, uh officials, uh, families, uh, oligarchs, etc. Yeah, you know, there's a long list, uh, you the usual suspects. But then nations themselves, I I can't think really of many more that are benefiting from this.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:18

No, absolutely. And you know, with China again getting cut off because China still imports most of its oil from West Asia, but they have they prepared, you're right, that this plan. One of the big things people are wondering was why is China not suffering? Well, because uh I've read some stuff saying in the last couple of years they really did think a major confrontation ever since October 7th was going to come that was gonna cut off a lot of their oil. And pretty much since then they've been filling up their strategic petroleum reserves, which is why you one see Chinese imports decline massively without actually the economy being affected. There's uh we if we were to see the economy being affected, we would see satellite images of less uh traffic on the streets, we would see less activity at factories, but none of that has happened because China was prepared. You're right, they have these five-year plans. Western countries hardly even have five-day plans. Their only five-year plans are the next hour plans. Yeah, five-hour plans. Their only five-year plans are the next Marvel movies and stuff, you know. That's that's the like that's that's all we have. So, no, I think China, and I think again, as I said, like I think China's benefiting because one, sure, United States, um, use up all your missiles. That's fine with us, right? And I think it is also benefiting because it does also give, if there was to be a confrontation, whether in Taiwan, uh, which would be done at the behest of the United States. I don't think China would actually attack first Taiwan, but if there was a major confrontation in Taiwan in uh the South China Sea, China now can look to Iran and say, okay, well, they won. What strategies did they use? Let's use that now, right? Um, other than that, I will add just a couple countries. I do think, because you know, as you know, I'm a bit of the Africa nerd when it comes to writing for the cradle. I would say some of the African countries that export oil might benefit. Not the ones that don't, but for instance, um Angola might actually do well relatively, uh Gabon countries like that. But needless to say, it's a very tiny list. We are entering a very serious situation, and I really welcome you, Esteban, for coming on to discuss and unpack all this. And great work at the cradle. Everyone who's watching this and listening to this, you definitely, I mean, we might actually end up uh partnering on this YouTube video uh for publishing. But if you're not already, please uh check out the cradle. Uh they do really great work, uh, great writing, great videos with the cradle news roundup. And Esteban, where else can people find you?

SPEAKER_01 1:02:50

Um they can find me on X uh as Steban uh Karlop. Uh and uh yeah, essentially there and at the Cradle Media, of course. Thank you, Aidan. Really it was uh it was a pleasure talking to you and uh hope to be back soon uh and hopefully with better news.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:05

With better news and uh I wouldn't bet on that, but let's uh you know what? Um uh what they say, uh uh optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect. That's how I like to roll. So yeah. Well, thank you everyone for listening to the Simmer Done show. I will have another guest uh next week. I'm hoping to maybe get an energy expert uh to discuss some of the things that Esteban and I already touched on. And uh please find the show, of course, on wherever you get your podcast, as well as if you're watching this, please subscribe on YouTube. Cheers.