Episode 3- NBA Video How to break the house

I will be showing you a formulas how to win for NBA.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hello everybody. Um, today is Tuesday, December 31st, 2024. We're gonna talk about chapter two, lecture tool, the NBA. I'm gonna show you. Please take notes because I'm gonna talk about the NBA formula. Example one. Look at the away team, Minnesota Timberwolves, at the home team, Portland Trailblazers. When you're writing out the formula, you're gonna start it off like that. Please take notes. I'm gonna scroll down to example two. Sample two NBA, away team, Minnesota Timberwolves. This is a real score, 98 points. We're gonna use uh Portland Trail Brazors. They playing at home. This is a real score 89. So Minnesota 98. Portland Trailblazers 89. We always give the home team three points because they're playing at home. The second real score was 121 Minnesota Timberwolves. Portland Trailblazers 109. Let me real scores. We're using the last two times they play. You need to go online and search and look up ESPNMBA.com. Look at the schedule for the team and put down the last two times they met up scores. That's how you can find it. Going on to ESPN and look at the last two times that they played each other and write down the last two times they play scores. Always the home team get three points. Okay, we're gonna scroll down to example three. NBA away team, Minnesota Timberwolves, home team, Portland Trail Blazers. We're gonna look at the injury report for the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers. You need to go online, type in ESPN, NBA.com, look up the team you want to bet on. Injury report. Just use lost points for starters only. On ESPN, go click on the team you want to bet on. Look at the depth chart for the starters. If it say P probable for that player, he might play the game, take off three points because he's playing hurt. If it say O, that means the player is out, take seven points off for that stuff for that starter. If it say Q, that's questionable, he might play, take off three points for that player. If it say PUP, that means the player is physically unable to perform, take off seven points for that starter, starting player. If it say SUS, that means the player is suspended by NBA, take off seven points. If that's a starting player, starting players only. If it say IR, that means injury reserve, take off seven points for that player. If he's a starter, if it say D D, that means day to day, he might play, take off three points for the starting players only. Second team, their injuries don't take any points off. Just only for starting players only. Example four NBA injuries. We looking at Minnesota Timberwolves injury report. Okay. We looking at Portland Trail Blazers injury report. We can see the Trail Blazers, they have a person who's not gonna be playing, a point guard. Um is not gonna be playing. So we're gonna take seven points off for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Edwin he might be playing his day to day, but he's only gonna take three points off for the injury points. Trailblazers have more of an injury. So we're gonna try subtract three of the uh Minnesota Timberwolves injury points from the Trailblazers. Injury points they gave us four points. That four points is gonna go to the Timberwolves. Timberwolves get four points because they have the less injury points. Four points go to the Timberwolves. That's how we're doing the injury. You'll find that on ESPN NBA.com when you're looking it up for the depth chart. We're gonna scroll down to example five for the NBA. Alright, example five, away team Minnesota Timberwolves. The last two scores when they played each other, the first real score was 98 to 89. You see now I have a four-point injury points for the Minnesota Timberwolves because Portland Trailblazers starter is gonna be out, so they have more injury points that's that they lost. The second time they play real score 121 to 109. Real scores. Now you can see something different for this third line. We're using analytics simulation from the PlayStation. 116 to 93. So Minnesota Timberwolves won the first game 116 to 93 with the two real scores added with the analytic points that give a total of 339. You can see with Portland Trailblazers, we gave them the home point, the three home points. Then we use the two real scores, and then we use analytics, where they have them play each other for about two hours for real, using all the players we're going to play in real life. That gave them 93 points, and that totaled 294. And analytics using PlayStation 5, NBA simulation, and Xbox or computer program to try to look into the future. The points for the third and final row is from simulation. You can also use Xbox and Computer Program too for people who don't have money for million-dollar supercomputers. So we have to use the next best thing. Um we're gonna go down to the next one. Excuse me. Real score. And then when they played game two, it was 121 to 109, them a real scores. Minnesota won that. And then when we use the simulation for game one, it's it was a total for the Timberwolves 339 points for the Portland Trail Blazers, it was equal 294. We subtract 339 from 294, it equals 45 points for Minnesota Timberwolves, so they're gonna win the money line. We go down divide three into 45, that give us 15 points. Okay, if you wanted to be more accurate, you can subtract five, but Minnesota Timberwolves gonna beat them by 15 points. That's what our point, that's what the formula said for our point spread. We're gonna go down to example number seven, game one. We put it all together. I put it all together for you. What happened? The 339 points for the Timberwolves, 294 for Trailblazers, get 45 divided, um, three divide into 45 equals 15. Take away five points, that'll give you 10 points. If that if you really want to be accurate, so the important I mean the Minnesota Timberwolves win by 10. If we want to do a five-point error, they're gonna beat them at least by 10 points. That's supposed to be more accurate when you do a five-point error. So we know the Minnesota Timberwolves are gonna beat them by at least 10 points. Example number eight, game number two. We still gonna use the last two real scores when they played each other. We're still gonna keep the four injury points. We still gonna keep um Portland 12 Blazers three points because they're playing at home. We're still keeping the last two real scores. The only thing that's gonna be different is the third line for the analytic analytics points. You can see when I ran in it for game two, Minnesota Timberwolves beat them 110 to 105. Portland got 105. I totaled all three scores up. It gave me 333. It gave Portland 306. I subtract Minnesota Timberwolves 333 from Portland Trailblazers 306. That gave me 27 points for Minnesota Timberwolves. You always divide by three. Okay, three going to 27 nine times. So it was nine for Minnesota Timberwolves. We do a five-point error that gave us four points. Minnesota Timberwolves gonna win by nine to four points. Okay, that was for game two. NBA game three. Remember, we're using the same last two real scores. We're keeping the four point for injury points and the three points for home for the trailblazers, four points for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Excuse me. Only thing that's gonna change is that last line for the simulation. We ran it 105 Minnesota Timberwolves 95 for the Portland Trailblazers. We're gonna subtract 328 to 296, that give us 32 points for Minnesota Timberwolves. They're gonna win the money line. Always divide by 3.3 going to 32. That gives you 10.2, 10.2 getting subtracted by 5. That gives you 5.2. So they're gonna beat them between 10 and 5 points. Example number 10, game four. We're using everything the same for except for the third line. Analytic simulation. 112 for the Minnesota Timberwolves, 106 for the Portland Trail Blazers, a total of 335 for Minnesota Timberwolves with all three scores added together, along with the four-point injury. 307 for the Portland Trailblazers, three points. I mean the three uh number um points added all together from the last two games and the analytics, plus the three points from the home team. That'll give them 307. 335 getting subtracted by 307. That'll give you a total of 28 for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Divide 3 into 28, that's nine. So the Timberwolves are gonna win by nine, five-point error. We're back at four again. Alright. Between nine and four points, the Timberwolves are gonna beat them by. We're going to game five. It's gonna be the same thing. NBA game five. We're gonna use this the the last three real scores between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers. Only thing different is the analytics for the simulation from the PlayStation 5. 93 points for the uh Minnesota Timberwolves, 90 points analytics for the Portland Trail Blazers. We're gonna subtract 291 from the Portland, we're gonna subtract 291 from 316, and I give the Minnesota Timberwolves 25 points. Always divide by three, three going to 25 eight times. So they saying the Minnesota Timberwolves are gonna win by eight. You subtract five if you want to get an accurate five-point error, that equals three. So we know the Timberwolves gonna win the money line between three and eight points. Okay, we made our own point spread. Don't mind them lines being down because that's supposed to be up there, up under the uh Minnesota Timberwolves, where it says Portland Trailblazer. That's supposed to be on the same page, but we're gonna go to example 12. That's where we're starting at for the next one. Please take notes. The NBA. When you run five NBA games using my formula to get calculations of the outcome, each game represents 20% of what can happen. Vegas point spread was 12.5 for Minnesota uh Timberwolves. For the Portland Trailblazers, the point spread was 12 and a half, so that means they got to beat them by 13. Minnesota Timberwolves won 100% of all five games, covering games only um covering two games only 40% of the time for the cover game. The Portland 12 players just covered three times out of five. So they're trying to say that game, them point spreads were too high. That that the point spreads were too high. Okay. But like I said, you can always go back and look at each individual point spread that you calculated five times, and you come up with your own decision what you want to do. But it looked like um, yeah. Looked like they had they were struggling to cover that point spread. Okay, they probably only beat it one one time. It looked like they were struggling to cover that 13 point spread. So you go with your own hunch or you can go with the mathematics when when you're making your um your point spread on MBA. Like they was um Minnesota uh Timberwolves was struggling to cover that 12 point well 13 points, they would have to beat them by 13 points to win. And it looked like they sh 40-60, they were struggling. So I would have put my money on the Portland Trailblazers to cover, not to win. It indicated the money line 100% that the um Minnesota Timberwolves was gonna win the game. It was 100% money line, but to cover 40%. Look like Minnesota Timberwolves weren't gonna score over 13 points on the Portland Trailblazers. So I d wanted to show you the formula for basketball. That's let me scroll down before I say that's the end. Okay, uh example 13 MBA. I'm gonna show a video um for on how to uh for the uh Anna Lena simulation for NBA and yeah, also show uh example on looking up the history between the NBA teams and picking the last two scores, talking about injury reports from the ESPN NBA. Just use lost points for starters only. Look at depth chart who's going to be out when you go to ESPN. Alright, and we'll stop right here before we enter lecture three. That's the end of the MBA on how to do the formula. I hope you took notes because it'd be best you write it out so you'll know how to do it when you're getting ready to bet. That's like about it's gonna take you them or two hour games when you're simulating, like it's like a real game. You're looking at it between if that's five games, 10 to 12 hours of research on one game with dissimulation only, um, when doing your mathematical formula, all that checking injuries, you're looking at about 10 to 14 hours of research on one game, and it's other formulas you gotta match up with it, and I'll be talking about that throughout the chapter. So you're gonna really be doing some homework if you want to be one, if you really want to win some big money. But I'm gonna end chapter two for the NBA before I go into the next chapter.