MLB- How to break the House

I will be talking about How to break the house for MLB.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:02

Hello, today is Wednesday, January 2nd, 2025. Let me repeat that. Today is Wednesday, January 2nd, 2025. I'm gonna talk about chapter 3, lecture 3, Major League Baseball. That's what I'm about to talk about in chapter 3. For the sports like baseball, hockey, soccer, only pick money line or over and under. I recommend you don't use point spreads with this formula. Only money line or overs and unders for games where the team can only score one point at a time. Cause you don't know which team gonna show up. It may look good on paper. That team's gonna beat them by a lot of points. With baseball, you gotta look at the pitcher who's pitching. You gotta look at injury, you gotta look at a lot of stuff. So it might not turn out the way what happened last game. So that's why I say when using a formula, my formula, or not using any type of formula, just do a money line or overs and unders. That's the best way. Um I'm gonna scroll down to the next page. Alright, this is example one for major league baseball. I got Dodgers as the way team. So they're the um underdog. Okay. They had Dodgers as a uh underdog playing against the home team of Los Angeles Angels. Okay. So the Los Angeles Angels are favorite to win. Um look at um where I have game one, real scores. The Dodgers scored one, the Angels score four. You know, okay. These are past games that they played against each other. Alright, game two, Dodgers were at home, so they scored 10 points, and the LA Angels score five. When it says game one, real score, that game really happened in real life. Game two, real score, that game happened in real life. I did a simulation on my PlayStation 5. Where on the simulation it had the Dodgers scoring eight and the LA Angels scoring four points. They played a whole game in that simulation, all the real players. Um, that gave me a total for the Dodgers equals 31 points. On the other side, I got a total of 11 points for the Los Angeles Angels. Let me scroll down a little bit more. You can see when these two teams meet up, they put a lot of points up. So this is going over. You can run, you can run it five times if you want to. But you know, just running it one time is gonna give you like with football, 20% of the outcome. What's gonna happen? Now, um, baseball can be confusing, you know. They have their star pitcher pitching only seven innings, and then the closure comes in, you know, can mess up the whole game and throw a lot of home runs. So, like with one-point games and baseball, it's it's really unpredictable um what's gonna happen. But um with the Dodgers got having 31 points to subtract the 11 points from the the Los Angeles Angels away, that will give you 20 points for the Dodgers. Then you're gonna divide by three. You always divide by three, because we're using three sets of numbers, and that give you 6.2 that the Dodgers um Posley supposed to win by, but I mostly do overs and unders and moneylines. I just would have just put Dodgers for uh moneyline. If they the underdog, I would have put them as the underdog and got that uh that them extra points, that one and a half positive points. But I would have picked, if I was gonna do the cover, I would have picked the Dodgers. If they the underdog. If they was favored, I would have picked Dodgers just for moneyline. But I really don't like doing point spreads in baseball because your team can be winning in that last inning. That man can come in and hit that home run. Your team will win the game, but they ain't cover that two-point spread. So I don't really like you. Should never really do point spreads in one-point games where the team can only score one point. This shows the Dodgers win money line and points. To be safe, just pick money line. Baseball, I'm stressing it, only pick money line or overs and unders. When you're looking at the pitchers and they have some good pitching, and you go for the under. If they got terrible pitchers, you're gonna have to understand who's pitching. They got terrible pitchers, you know the game won't go over. Um example two for major league. You also have to look at the pitching status and what they mean for pitching. ERA is the average of the earned runs allowed by the pitcher per nine inning pitch. You see, you're gonna have to study these words if you're gonna be just betting on baseball. You can't just be betting on baseball because oh, they got that good pitcher, or oh, he hit like 50 home runs. No, you're gonna have to see who's pitching. Like with the quarterback, that's the person who's gonna put up the points. The pitcher is like the quarterback. Okay, so if they got a horrible pitcher up there, you can cost you the game, or it's gonna be a lot of points up there. But you gotta learn these baseball terms. Uh number two, wins losses. W slash L mean wins and losses for baseball. Number three, BF baseball face in a game. Number four is P for pitching. BB is a walk or base on base on ball. That's number five. Number six is HR means the average number of home runs allowed by pitcher in a nine inning scale. The CG means complete game. FIP means field independent pitching. It is a statistic meant to measure pitcher's effectiveness taking plays that would involve the defense trying to fill the ball out of the equation. Number nine is FB fly ball rating. Number 10 is whip means walk plus hit per inning pitch. K means the strikeout. See when reading baseball turns, you most definitely need to look at the K's. What the K mean? That means how many times that pitcher struck someone out. IP means innings pitch. You know, on a good pitcher, they don't want to throw their arm out, so I guess that's why they go for seven innings because they're throwing that ball over 90 to 100 miles per hour. And if you do that for a whole game, you can throw your arm out where you can't be no good for the next game when you got a pitch. That's why they have so many different pitchers. Um means innings pitch, GF means innings pitch, CB mean curveball, R mean runs. Very important. You need to look at the stats. You can look at that on ESPN. Um PFR means power fitness ratus. PFR in baseball is a statistical measurement of the performance of a pitcher use and um sub button with submatics. Number 17 is BF batter faced. Number 18 is LRP, long relief pitch, BAA, batting average against BS, blown saves, HB vertical break. So it'd be good to look at them baseball terms, look them up, study them so you can understand and be able to read up on the pitching and the batting. But the pitching is like really the most important thing. You got a garbage pitcher out there when a lot of runs, it's gonna be a high-scoring game, and your team might lose. You really have to study on who's gonna be pitching and who's gonna be closing. And if that pitcher is sick, they're gonna have at least two pitchers who are gonna pitch. One of them is gonna be having a pitch for that game. Um, you you really gotta pay attention to the pitching. You're gonna be pitching the ball, how many home runs he gave up, hits, all that. You gotta go old school, but still, you can use my um formula for the mathematical term that I showed you. Um example three. The pitching is the key to overs and unders. If if two good pitchers are playing against each other, a good chance that game might go under. If the pitcher's hot, that's a good thing. Playing against a rookie, a good chance it might go over. The pitchers is the key for overs and under. Using my formula with the simulation will give you a good outlook into the future of possibilities on what can happen with the next game. Hey, look at another thing. Sometimes they say these two pictures you're playing, and if they don't play, they'll scratch that game. You gotta pay attention to that too. If you're doing a parlay, that'll mess your parlay up. Alright, um, example four for major league baseball. I'm gonna just probably show a little analytic video and stuff. I'm gonna have that with it. And I let me before I say it's over. Let me see if there's any more. And that will be it for chapter three on Major League Baseball. I'm gonna try to show a few separate videos on it for the future. Alright, thank you.