Three Sips to Shots Fired - What Happens Before the Sirens

STARS Foundation Series | Part 2: Scenarios — What Can Happen Here?

Lori Season 1 Episode 2

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0:00 | 7:04

The STARS Framework for Vigilant Living was created to help people think more intentionally about uncertainty, preparedness, decision-making, and resilience before a crisis arrives.

In this Foundation Series, we're exploring each pillar of the STARS Framework one at a time.

Today's episode focuses on the first pillar:

Scenarios — What Can Happen Here?

Most people spend far more time planning for what they expect than considering what they don't.

Yet the ability to recognize potential scenarios—whether related to personal safety, health, finances, relationships, travel, business, or everyday life—often determines how effectively we respond when the unexpected occurs.

In this episode, Lori Baxley explores why scenario thinking matters, how it influences decision-making, and why asking "What can happen here?" is not about fear, paranoia, or assuming the worst.

It's about awareness.

Because when we take time to consider possibilities before a crisis arrives, we gain the opportunity to think more clearly, prepare more effectively, and respond more confidently.

The goal isn't to predict the future.

The goal is to be less surprised by it.

About the STARS Framework

The STARS Framework is built around five questions designed to help us navigate uncertainty before crisis arrives:

⭐ Scenarios — What can happen here?

⭐ Triggers — What feels slightly off?

⭐ Action — What will you do about it?

⭐ Routines — What habits keep you safe?

⭐ Stoicism — Can you stay calm when everything isn't?

About the Host

Lori Baxley is the host of Three Sips to Shots Fired: What Happens Before the Sirens.

A survivor of a violent home invasion, former police officer, probation officer, criminal justice professional, educator, and advocate for vigilant living, Lori developed the STARS Framework to help individuals think more intentionally about preparedness, awareness, and resilience in everyday life.

STARS Foundation Series

Part 1: Origin Story of the STARS Framework

Part 2: Scenarios — What Can Happen Here?

Part 3: Triggers — What Feels Slightly Off?

Part 4: Action — What Will You Do About It?

Part 5: Routines — What Habits Keep You Safe?

Part 6: Stoicism — Can You Stay Calm When Everything Isn't?

Part 7: Closing Reflection

Subscribe for future episodes of Three Sips to Shots Fired and conversations exploring what happens before the sirens.

#STARSFramework #VigilantLiving #SituationalAwareness #Preparedness #Resilience #ThreeSipsToShotsFired

SPEAKER_00

Hi again, I'm Lori Baxley, your host at Three Sips to Shots Fired Podcast. Welcome to part two in the series about the STARS Framework. Let's move right into the first pillar in the STARS Framework, scenarios. Or simply asked, what can happen here? And I want to say something right from the start. This is not about fear. This is not about expecting the worst, and this is definitely not about walking around anxious all the time. Because honestly, that sounds exhausting. This is about awareness, preparedness, and understanding context. It's about learning to pause and to ask a simple question. What is possible here? Not what is probable, not what is guaranteed, but what is possible. Because when we think through scenarios ahead of time, we make better decisions and we panic less. Let me say that again. When we think through scenarios ahead of time, we panic less because uncertainty feels bigger when we've never mentally visited it before. Think about a fire drill. Most of us don't believe the building is actually going to catch fire in that moment. But we still want to know where the exits are. We still want to plan. Why? Because planning ahead creates options, and options matter, especially under stress. That's what scenarios are. Mental preparation, not fear, preparation. You know, in criminal justice I saw this over and over. The people who handled crisis best were often people who had already imagined possibilities. They weren't shocked into paralysis, because somewhere in their mind, they had already asked the question, what would I do if this happened? Not obsessively, not fearfully, just honestly. Let me give you an example. You pull into a parking garage late at night. Do you need to assume danger is around every corner? No, not necessarily. But maybe you ask yourself, where am I parked? Who's around me? And what feels normal here? What feels different? If something felt off, what would I do? Would I go back inside? Would I call someone? Would I move toward light? Would I trust myself enough to leave? That's scenarios. Not paranoia, preparation. Or maybe it's dating. And yes, we need to talk about dating because relationships, especially early relationships, can carry risk too. Not always physical danger. Sometimes emotional danger. Manipulation, control, isolation. So maybe the question becomes, what could happen here if this person ignores boundaries early? What could that mean later? If they become possessive quickly, what could that mean? If something feels rushed, why? Not to judge, not to catastrophize, but to think, to stay awake. Or maybe it's about parenting. You notice your teenager withdrawing. Behavior changes, secrecy, different friends, emotional shifts. Now before I go any further, I know teenagers are teenagers. I get it. Not every move swing means crisis, but scenarios ask us to consider possibility, not panic, possibility. Could something deeper be happening here? Substance abuse, bullying, mental health struggles, unsafe relationships, online manipulation. And because you considered the scenario, you ask more questions, you lean in sooner, you stay curious, you stay connected. Or maybe we're talking about addiction. And this one matters deeply to me. Because addiction rarely arrives all at once. There are moments before the collapse, patterns before the devastation, behavior shifts, excuses, isolation, financial concerns, mood changes, disappearing, relapses, broken trust. And when we love someone, sometimes we don't want to imagine the scenario because it hurts, because acknowledging possibility makes it feel more real. But avoiding the possibility doesn't make us safer. Sometimes the bravest thing we can do is ask, what could happen here? And what would I do if it does? How do I stay loving without losing myself? How do I stay compassionate without abandoning wisdom? Or let's bring it closer to home, literally. Home safety. Do you have to live scared? Absolutely not. But maybe you ask, what would I do if someone came through that door? Do my kids know what to do? Do I know what to do? Who would I call? What's my plan? And I want to say this gently because I learned this in a way I never expected. When fear arrives, it is a terrible time to build a plan. Stress changes us. Adrenaline changes us. Decision making changes under pressure. Which is why scenarios matter. You don't always rise to the occasion. You often fall to your preparation. And here's what I think people misunderstand. Prepared people are often calmer people because preparedness creates confidence. It doesn't guarantee outcomes, but it gives us grounding. It gives us options. It gives us somewhere to stand emotionally when uncertainty shows up. And I want to be really clear here. Scenarios are not about becoming suspicious of everyone. This is not the goal. The goal is not fear. The goal is wisdom. The goal is being able to say, I've thought about this, or I've considered this possibility. And if life throws something unexpected my way, I'm not starting from zero. Because life is unpredictable. Relationships are unpredictable. People are unpredictable. Health, finances, safety, addiction, loss, none of us get immunity from uncertainty. But we do have influence over how prepared we are to face it. So maybe this week I'll invite you to ask yourself a simple question. In the places that matter most, your home, your relationships, your routine, your health, your peace. Ask yourself, what can happen here? Not from fear, from wisdom, not to scare yourself, to strengthen yourself. Because sometimes the safest people are not the strongest people, they're not the loudest people, they're not even the most competent people. Sometimes they're simply the people who thought ahead. And once we start thinking about possibility, we naturally move into the second question. Because after we ask what can happen here, the next question becomes what feels slightly off? Until next time, I'm Lori Baxley, host of Three Sips to Shots Fired podcast. Because seconds don't ask permission, and what happens before the sirens matters most.