The Open Bell — Ep. 038 — 13 Aug 2026

Today on The Open Bell: The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly shut for six months now and the IEA says the world is heading into the third quarter short by 1.8 million barrels a day, which is the kind of number that doesn't stay in the energy market for long before it shows up in your petrol bill. India just recorded its lowest inflation in seven years and almost nobody in the West is talking about it, which feels like a mistake when you're discussing the most populous country on earth and whether the global rate cycle is actually turning. US inflation came in exactly where forecasters expected, which sounds fine until you notice that wages are still running below prices for the fourth month straight, so "matching forecasts" isn't quite the same thing as things getting better for most people. If today's episode earned a few minutes of your commute, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps someone else find the show tomorrow. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:16 IEA Warns of 1.8Mb/d Oil Shortfall as Hormuz Deadlock Deepen 03:00 India July CPI Falls to 3.54%, Lowest Since Mid-2019, Openin 05:08 US July CPI Hits 3.4%, Matching Forecasts and Cooling Rate-H 06:51 Closing thoughts

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Good morning. It's Thursday, thirteenth August 2026, and this is the Open Bell. I'm Alex Monroe. Gasoline at $4 a gallon, the world's most important oil lane still largely closed, and inflation still eating the edge off your paycheck. Here's what the numbers are actually telling us today. The IEA, the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based body that tracks global oil supply and demand, released its August monthly report yesterday and the headline figure demands attention. The agency is now projecting a global oil shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. To put that in proportion, global oil demand runs at roughly 100 million barrels a day. Missing 1.8 million of those every single day for an entire quarter is not a rounding error. That's a structural absence. And it has a single cause. The Strait of Hormuz has now been effectively closed for six months. What used to be one of the most trafficked waterways on Earth, roughly 130 tankers a day moving through a corridor barely 20 miles wide, is now handling fewer than 15. The rest of the world's oil supply chain has had to find other routes, other sellers, other workarounds. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was sitting near $89 a barrel yesterday, up roughly 12% over five trading sessions. WTI, the American benchmark, was close to 84. Both are well above anything we saw before the conflict escalated. The national average for gasoline in the US is now $4.04 a gallon, up from around $3.14 this time last year. That's roughly $9 more every time you fill up a standard tank. And if you've flown recently, airfares are running about a quarter higher than a year ago because jet fuel is the same story. Here's the one detail that cuts through the noise. US crude inventories actually rose last week by 17.4 million barrels, the biggest weekly build since early 2023, as American production ramps up to redirect flows away from the strait. The US, in other words, is producing more, and prices are still near $90. That tells you everything about how severe the shortfall is everywhere else. Trump declared total control over the waterway. Tehran is demanding unfrozen overseas assets and war reparations before they'll reopen anything. That gap isn't closing this week. Goldman Sachs has flagged that if Hormuz stays effectively shut, Brent could average above $100 for the quarter. That's not a fringe view anymore. There is one genuine counterweight. Pakistan's defense minister said publicly yesterday that things are shaping up in favor of a peace arrangement. That kind of signal has moved oil sharply before. In either direction. If a deal breaks, Brent could fall back towards 70 in days. But we've been at the deal is imminent stage before in this story and it hasn't landed yet. That's the physical reality behind every price at the pump. And the IEA just put the hardest numbers yet on what it's costing the global market. Now, the same energy shock that's keeping American inflation elevated is having a very different effect in India. And the reason why is worth understanding, because it's not the story most people expect. India's inflation data for July came in yesterday at 3.5% year on year, the lowest reading since mid-2019, and a sharp drop from 4.4% in June. That's a fall of nearly a full percentage point in a single month. The primary driver was vegetables. Seasonal vegetable prices, which have been running hot since late last year, dropped sharply. Core inflation, the underlying measure that strips out food and fuel, also eased. The result is that India's headline inflation is now comfortably below the reserve bank of India's 4% medium-term target for the first time since the Hormuz crisis began, pushing fuel costs higher earlier this year. That matters enormously for the roughly 30 trillion rupees, about $360 billion in floating rate home loans outstanding in India. If the RBI's rate setting committee cuts its benchmark repo rate by a quarter percentage point at the October meeting, as a growing number of economists now expect, those borrowers see lower monthly repayments. For hundreds of millions of lower income households, food prices that have actually come down mean grocery budget stretch a little further in a country where food is a much larger share of the weekly shop than in the West. The honest caveat is that the vegetable price drop is partly seasonal. August and September data will tell us whether disinflation is real or whether this is a one-month relief before the Hormuz-driven fuel costs push the number back above 4%. Analysts at Westpac are watching exactly that risk. If it reverses, the October rate cut disappears. But here's what gets buried. In 2019, the last time India's inflation was at these levels, the RBI cut rates by a cumulative 1.35 percentage points over 12 months. The resulting rally in Indian bonds and housing demand was substantial. If the disinflation holds, this is the beginning of a meaningful monetary easing cycle in the world's most populous country. That's a bigger economic moment, then it tends to get credited for outside South Asia. Which brings us to the US data from yesterday morning and the version of the story that's actually more complicated than the market reaction suggested. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released July's consumer price index at 3.4% year on year, down from 3.5 in June, and exactly in line with what forecasters expected. Core inflation, stripping out food and energy, came in at 2.5% annually, also matching consensus. Markets liked it. SP 500 futures rallied. The Nasdaq hit a one-month high by the close. But here's the number that didn't make the headlines. Average hourly earnings are rising at 3.2% a year. Inflation is running at 3.4%. That means for the fourth month in a row, prices are rising faster than wages. Your pay rise is being outrun, not by much, but consistently and it compounds. Shelter costs, which is mostly rent and the equivalent for homeowners, accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly gain. Energy fell on the month, but is still up nearly 15% year on year. Gasoline is up almost 25% over 12 months. The Fed's September meeting, scheduled for the 15th and 16th, now looks like a hold. Three regional presidents have been pushing for a hike. This print gives the majority the cover to stay put. The last time three Fed dissenters pushed in the same direction and failed to force a move was September 2016, when the committee held. History may be repeating. The hold means mortgage rates stay elevated. It doesn't mean they fall. For anyone waiting to buy a home or refinance, relief isn't here yet. Inflation is still wiping out your pay rise. Wages at 3.2% are lagging prices at 3.4% for the fourth month running. Three stories today, and what they collectively describe as a world economy that's stabilizing in some places and still under real pressure in others, but nowhere near back to normal. India gets a moment of genuine relief. The US gets a pause, not a pivot. And oil is sending a message, the IEA just put numbers to. The Hormuz crisis isn't priced in yet, not fully. The next thing to watch is the September Indian CPI print, which will tell us whether the RBI's October cut is real and the Fed's September 16th decision, which will confirm whether this hold is a turning point or just a pause before the next move up. If you want today's numbers in writing, the newsletter is free. Link is in the show notes. That's the open bell. I'm Alex Monroe. Have a sharp morning.