The Open Bell — Ep. 045 — 24 Aug 2026

Today on The Open Bell: The US government is now paying more to borrow money for 30 years than it has since before the first iPhone shipped, and the Treasury's attempt to calm the bond market lasted about 48 hours before the yield crawled right back up to 5.27%. Nvidia reports earnings this week, and at this point the entire US stock market has essentially stopped pretending it's about anything else, with semiconductors down more than 4% last week and the Nasdaq sliding 2% while everyone waits for a single company to tell them how to feel. Brent crude is holding above $93 a barrel because the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply, still isn't freely open to most ships six months into the disruption, and $93 has quietly gone from a crisis price to just the price. If today's episode was useful, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find it. Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co Not investment advice. For informational purposes only. --- Chapters: 00:00 Introduction 00:20 US 30-Year Treasury Yield Holds Near 19-Year High at 5.27% 03:33 US Equities Start Week Under Pressure as Semiconductor Rout 05:48 Brent Crude Above $93 as Hormuz Shipping Disruption Persists 07:13 Closing thoughts

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Good morning. It's Monday, 24 August 2026, and this is the Open Bell. I'm Alex Monroe. The week ahead has three events that could each move markets on their own. Nvidia earnings, July Inflation Data, and the Fed chair's first major speech as the most powerful central banker on the planet. They all land before Friday. Let's get into it. The 30-year Treasury yield, the interest rate the US government pays when it borrows money for three decades, and the number that mortgage rates are priced against is starting this week at 5.27%. That's just a whisker below the cycle high of 5.33%, hit on August 18th, the highest sustained level since 2007. Not since before the global financial crisis has it cost Washington this much to borrow long term. And this morning it's holding there. The Treasury tried to fix this. Six days ago, Secretary Scott Bessent announced he'd more than doubled the government's bond buyback program, the scheme where the Treasury repurchases its own older debt to inject cash into the market and support prices from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The yield dropped for about 48 hours, then it came back, the market looked at the buyback expansion, weighed it against a federal deficit that shows no credible sign of narrowing, and basically said, nice try. The 10-year yield, the benchmark that feeds directly into 30-year fixed mortgage rates, auto loans, and credit card debt, is sitting at 4.73%. At 30-year yields near 5.27, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stays comfortably above 7%. That's not a rounding error. That's hundreds of dollars more per month compared to what buyers were paying in 2021 on the same house. There's a minority view worth taking seriously. Some strategists argue that yields this high are self-correcting. The logic goes that borrowing costs at these levels slow growth and inflation faster than the Fed's own models predict, removing the need for further rate hikes and eventually pulling yields back down without any policy intervention. It's a clean argument. The problem is the bond market has been hearing that argument for most of 2026 and has not blinked. The Fed, led by new chair Kevin Walsh, who took the job this year after Jerome Powell's term ended, held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5 to 3.75% at the July meeting, though three of the 12 voting members wanted an immediate hike. September odds for a hike are still priced at roughly one in three. The variable that changes the conversation this week is Walsh himself. His first keynote at the Jackson Hole Central Banking Symposium lands on August 28th. That speech will tell markets whether the new Fed chair is willing to let long yields run, lean into rate hikes to force them lower, or, the most consequential scenario, signal something about the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury's debt management program that markets haven't priced yet. The closest modern parallel for what happens when that signal gets muddled was 2013. When the Fed mentioned it might slow its bond purchases, the 10-year yield surged from 1.6 to 3% in four months, and the Fed spent the following year walking it back. That one resolved when guidance was clarified. The question for Thursday's Jackson Hole speech is whether Walsh clarifies or complicates. Put it this way, the Treasury's attempt to ease the pressure on long-term borrowing costs lasted less than two days. What Walsh says in Wyoming on Thursday morning now carries more weight than anything Bessent can announce between now and then. Separate from the bond market entirely, U.S. equity futures opened Sunday evening under cautious pressure. And the week behind us explains why. The SP 500 snapped a three-week winning streak, closing Friday at around 7700. The NASDAQ composite, the index weighted heavily toward technology companies, slid about 2% for the week. The Van X Semiconductor ETF, which tracks chipmakers and related companies, fell more than 4%. Its worst weekly performance in months. The mechanism here is straightforward, even if it's not comfortable. When long-term treasury yields rise, and they have, the appeal of growth stocks, the ones whose value is built on earnings years into the future goes down. It's a mathematical reality. Higher rates mean those future earnings are worth less in today's dollars. So when the 30-year yield holds near 5.27%, semiconductor stocks take the hit first and hardest. That said, some strategists are making the case that the sell-off is healthy profit taking in a sector that has run hard in 2026, and there's a real argument there. AI capital spending is projected at $750 billion for this year, up roughly 85% year on year. The underlying demand story for chips hasn't gone anywhere. Which brings us to the week's central event. Nvidia reports earnings on August 27th. Jeffries is projecting quarterly revenue of around $95 billion, above what the broader analyst consensus had expected. The entire conversation about whether the SP 500 can push toward 8,000 essentially bottoms out on one question. Does NVIDIA confirm the AI spending story is intact, or does it introduce any doubt? The VIX, the market's measure of expected near-term volatility, settled at 15.13 on Friday, down sharply on the day, which suggests that immediate fear eased. But 15 is not calm. It's cautious. The broader risk here is concentration. The retirement savings of tens of millions of Americans sitting in SP 500 index funds, standard 401k and IRA accounts have been carried upward for three years by a narrow band of growth stocks. The week's 2% Nasdaq decline trimmed balances modestly. A sustained rotation away from those names, driven by bond yields staying elevated, is a different kind of story. And that's exactly the scenario that Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Thursday either defuses or accelerates. Oil is still making the week's agenda more complicated. Brent crude, the global price benchmark, is holding above $93 a barrel this morning with WTI, the U.S. domestic price, near $87. Brent briefly spiked toward $95 late last week after President Trump threatened additional economic measures against Iran before settling back to where it opened the week. Six months in, the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, through which roughly one barrel in five of global crude normally flows, remains severely disrupted. Marine tracking data shows only vessels with prior ties to Iran moving through freely. South Korea, which sources around 85% of its crude via the strait, and Japan are bearing the heaviest cost in Asia. Basent is expected to detail expanded sanctions against Tehran this week. That move could push prices higher if it further restricts Iranian export flows, or it could eventually create conditions for negotiation. Goldman Sachs and other major banks are currently holding to Brent forecasts of $90 to $100 through year-end contingent on no reopening of the strait. The thing to hold on to, oil at $93 is now the baseline, not the panic price, not the spike, the floor. And at that floor, fuel costs stay elevated for drivers in the US, Europe, and Japan, core inflation stays above where the Fed needs it to be, and the case for rate cuts in 2026 stays difficult to make. So that's the weak. The bond market is testing whether anyone in Washington has a credible answer to rising long-term borrowing costs. The stock market is waiting on one company to tell it the AI story is still worth believing. And oil is refusing to come down, making both of those problems harder to solve. Everything lands by Friday. The PCE inflation figure, Nvidia's numbers, and Kevin Walsh's first major speech as Fed chair. That speech is the one to watch most closely. A new chair at the most consequential central banking event of the year, with markets already on edge. The last time a Fed chair changed the tone at Jackson Hole, it moved markets for months. If you want today's numbers in front of you, all the figures, the yields, the prices, the newsletter's free, and the link is in the show notes. That's the open bell. I'm Alex Monroe. Have a sharp morning.