Episode 6 | Travel consumer spending - What do the numbers say?

Simon Atkinson joins us to look at how the consumer spend and travel numbers have changed since Barclays on Travel Forum at the end of April. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:03

One conversation, three perspectives, honest debate on the story shape in the travel industry. Each episode tackles a live issue, big trend of hot debate across the travel industry.

SPEAKER_04 0:14

Every week we'll be joined by guests for honest conversations, strong opinions, and lively debate.

SPEAKER_02 0:19

I'm James. I'm Andy. I'm Will. Welcome to Let's Talk Travel.

SPEAKER_04 0:26

Barclays stood up at its travel forum on the 22nd of April and told the room the travel sector remains resilient and was set for continued growth. The trouble is, the data in that very deck had already turned negative. And within weeks, the numbers got worse, not better. With a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, resulting fuel pressures and increasing uncertainty amongst consumers, the numbers up to the end of May tell a very different story. So Barclay sees roughly 40% of all UK car transactions across issuing and acquiring. So this is one of the better real-time reads on consumer behaviour, not a survey. The forum deck that we analyzed ran from quarter one 2026, which finished in March, and the consumer spend reports that followed, and we're going to talk about today, cover April and May. Travel is classed as a non-essential discretionary spend, which matters because the whole story is about whether it behaves like a luxury people cut or a non-negotiable they protect. We're delighted to be joined by Barclay's Director of Hospitality and Leisure, aka Mr. Travel Banking, Simon Atkinson, to pick through the latest figures to see what's changed and what it means for the industry we love and to get his own personal views and thoughts on everything. So let's talk travel. Andy, great to see you. Surviving the heat, how are all things with you?

SPEAKER_01 1:52

Surviving is definitely the word this week, isn't it? I think uh otherwise it's not spread across the whole country. A lot of people have had to endure um some record-breaking temperatures. Um, obviously, climate changes here and affecting us uh personally and that that's a whole other episode. Let's say we can come onto that another day, but um, yes, it's been uh it's been a good week. Unfortunately I haven't made all the events I'd like to because of the heat, um, but really looking forward to getting to this delay, so I think uh numbers are definitely much uh definitely my thing, and uh Simon has got a lot to bring.

SPEAKER_04 2:23

I I notice your light on your shed today as well, is is a little bit too warm in the old sauna, is it?

SPEAKER_01 2:29

The sauna is turned into a heat box, and there's no way I can operate from there. So I'm in I would say it's not cool, but uh it's it's certainly cooler. Um, so it's just been a horrible week, and I'm just glad Friday's uh Friday's here.

SPEAKER_04 2:43

Brilliant. And and Simon, thank you ever so much for joining us. How's life with you? Uh surviving the heat itself?

SPEAKER_03 2:49

Yeah, surviving, it's very warm, isn't it? Understatement of the century. Um I'm regressing life choices today as well. I wish I had just gone to the office for the first time on a Friday for God knows how long. Um yeah, I'm missing that air conditioning already. But I'm I'm like Andy, um, I've stayed clear of my shed at the end of the garden in this sweatbox instead.

SPEAKER_04 3:09

Absolutely. Well, brilliant. It's great you can join us. And you know, we really want to get your views on certainly the the figures that um Barkley's come out with, how they've changed, um, but also you know, your own personal views. I know you're someone that loves traveling, you're someone well connected in the industry. So love to hear what you've you your your hearing yourself and and what you're seeing. I I guess to start, what I'd love from you both is is how you're seeing the state of industry at the end of June, um, how it's changed, and and what Simon, what what's your kind of view on whether it's in a good place, bad place, doing okay, we've got lots of geopolitical change. Where are we?

SPEAKER_03 3:51

Yeah, where are we? It's it's complicated, isn't it? Um because if you'd asked me that question two and a half weeks ago, I might have had a different response. If you'd asked me that question two months ago, I'd have had a different response. And you know, you come back to presentation that was made at our travel forum in April. Um, you know, we were only really one month data into the impact on the Middle East, and you know, never mind anything else that's kind of happening in people's lives when it comes to vacuum pressures, um, you know, discussing between pressures more generally. Um it's it's a really really tricky start to the year, I think, with no one quite having a crystal ball, no one being in control of their own destinies to an extent. Um that comes off the back of how many years in the case where we've had that sort of decline of of that was been across across the industry, right? So where are we today? Well, except for that great. I'm still not quite sure. I think we need to see the two numbers for that. And I think we are probably all seeing reports coming from the trade. So I think this last two weeks, like the labor market is is a fishing here. Um you know, we are seeing growth in the last couple of weeks compared to this time last year. So I think as of today, things feel like they're moving towards a better place than they were two and a half weeks ago, two months ago. Um, how long would that last? How long could things take to recover? I think is still a bit of a crystal ball.

SPEAKER_04 5:30

Yeah, and and obviously in the in your forum, I think the the figures were um March was the first decline since 2021, but then the last two months, April and May, have continued to decline. You think that you think that it's gonna that's gonna soften and come the other way?

SPEAKER_03 5:50

I think if reports from conversations we've had from the last week or so are to be believed, um, again, you know, you never say never until you see the actual cold hard numbers, right? But I think you know it all depends on what that open week or two time to performance really did look like before restrictions were lifted. Um I think it's a possibility we'll see we'll see things we can back. Will will it get back to uh a 0% or a positive? I'm not so sure. Um, I think you know there's still going to be a bit of a headwind there, um, and then we'll be looking to lie. But but of course, the further we move into um into the summer holidays, you know, people that haven't booked their holidays, what are they booking? Are they booking their vacations instead? Um, you know, or uh are they booking something that's cheaper? Um again, you know, booking trends have been really, really tricky to kind of work out, haven't they? You don't also get mixed in with this is this can be the time of year people start to book their October getaways as well. Um and some of that demand that's come through in the last two weeks is even people booking out as far as 2027 already. So we shall see. Um once that we did really, I know we love a stat, don't we? Um, but 50%, 50% of all bookings in the last week or two have been to travel within the next nine weeks. I think that's got to be positive.

SPEAKER_04 7:11

Uh yeah, and we we've done an episode on that. Um and that that that late to market. Uh Andy, are you seeing the same in search? How do you view this as well from a purely from a numbers perspective? I know we've got views that we've shared and digested on here, dissected even. Um, what are you seeing?

SPEAKER_01 7:29

I mean, I talked about this in one of my blogs a few months ago. The first quarter in 2026 was the first decline year on year we'd seen in search demand in the travel market. And my view of searches is it's almost a bit of a precursor to what actually happens with bookings, because if people searching less, then there's probably less people in the market, less most of the market means less bookings. So I think perhaps some of what I was seeing a few months ago is now coming through in some of Simon's numbers, given that we've had a few months of decline. Obviously, there's been a whole layer on top of that of uh political and stability. Um, but yeah, looking at some of these regions year on year, month on month, we haven't seen big upticks, and this is a I guess a tough year from a marketing perspective because if people are searching less, less people in the market means bids have to go up, the positions have to be higher, um, and they're either going to be harder to acquire, more expensive to acquire, or looking for a deal, um, which goes back to the whole sort of I think what you touched on there, Simon, of um, you know, people are holding off because perhaps they do want to get a deal. Uh, and James has talked to on here before about some of the crazy prices that he's seen from uh his side. Um, it's gonna be a very hard late market because there's I think there may be less people in it, and also people being uh driven to ATAs, package people because that's where they feel they get the best price. So um some of the numbers I break down a bit further in um perhaps as we go through this chat.

SPEAKER_04 8:50

I mean, he is captain deal, so that's probably where he is now, trying to find the latest deal and searching around. Um, absolutely. And and from search, you know, there's this thing called AI that everyone's using. So that's probably where they've gone, mate.

SPEAKER_01 9:02

Another layer on top, yeah, which makes things very, very difficult to sort of drill down. And we've also got social media as inspiration, so the whole journey is again becoming harder to monitor and measure.

SPEAKER_04 9:11

Yeah. So so coming back to to some of the sort of key points, I don't think it will come as any surprise, but but the language that Barclays put out, Simon, changed from geopolitical uncertainty to explicitly saying that the Middle East conflict, um, that's obviously not the only thing. What else are you seeing? And what's your sentiment and feeling, and either personal andor from the bank's perspective, to you know, will a will a peace hold? And if a peace does hold, how big an effect will that have, and how far will that kind of reverse out the situation we found ourselves in?

SPEAKER_03 9:48

That will the peace hold? I think we all we would like it to hold.

SPEAKER_04 9:53

Put your finger in the air.

SPEAKER_03 9:54

Yeah, but like literally put your finger in the air, and you know, you think about the last three months and the twists and turns this whole crisis has taken. Um, you know, who is to believe on either side of the conflict. Um, you know, if the straight's open, the straight's closed, the straight's open, the straight's closed. Like, I mean you just don't really know. I mean uh as time goes by, you know, you kind of have that confidence that things are building. But I think everything everyone has in the back of their mind, you know, could be quickly on mind if someone does something rash, actually. I've not mentioned the name there, but I know I know you all know for what we're talking about there. Um that that confidence is really important actually, because uh whilst those restrictions are fifteen, one of the things that we've been talking about over the last week or so is actually what will be interesting to see is are the least destinations uh open for business, or are people wanting to travel there, or are they wanting to travel through there to get to longer haul destinations which have clearly been impacted by by this as well. So I think that will be the first sign of recovery. I mean, clearly if things go backwards, we then can have a bigger problem on our hands because you're then back into well, restrictions are back in place, how long will they last? How long is a piece of string? Um, it's it is concerning, it is really concerning. But I think that as time goes by, that confidence will grow. Um, and we just literally, literally will, I think people gonna have their fingers crossed that this doesn't reverse.

SPEAKER_04 11:30

Yeah. And and Andy, I I'm not gonna pick you up on on this uh specific point because you know we've talked extensively in previous podcasts about this, but one of the things that comes across in the Barclays figures is the money is moving in terms of where it's being spent, not disappearing. So the whole sort of thesis that um consumers will find a way to holiday is still essentially there. You know, uh hotels, resorts, and accommodation was up in May, uh, which was strongest growth since May last year. Uh, there's also been a lot of redirect to sort of Western Europe with with Spain significantly up. I was 32% year on year. Um how are you seeing that in terms of search data and you know, in terms of the resilience of the market, I guess?

SPEAKER_01 12:20

Yeah, I mean, I mean, I talked about the fact that year on year everything seems to be down in search, and that may be down to AI, maybe down to social media, maybe we're just turning it off. Like, if I can't afford to go on holiday, why am I bothering a searching? So, uh, and also, I guess, also to the the point about uh other people have talked about um other places like just the atoll holders are getting more and more concentrated. So there's a whole mixture of things going on there. But I would have thought, given uh the Middle East is such a big thing in the news, and there's lots of negative press, and cruise has also come under the scrutiny because of the various viruses, that places that are safe like the Med would see a big uptick in searches. And I wasn't expecting and hoping that would be the case. But uh again, search data seems to suggest otherwise, uh, Spain is actually down uh 25% this year, year on year, which I thought would be the one place people would focus their attention and time on. So maybe Spain is perhaps seen as uh too hot. There's definitely some uh local tourist pushback, um, and some of the places like Mallorca and Menorca. Um, I would again be very keen to see June numbers because I would hope that there's an uptick there, um, particularly for places like Spain, but places like Cyprus still not that particularly um favorable in the consumer or the searcher's eyes. Again, maybe just this is the heat that people have seen, and and again, prices or fact Cyprus is near the the war zone, uh, where it you know hasn't necessarily um been involved in any of it. So um I think the data again, like Simon, I'm really keen to see what happens in June because I'm hoping there's a big uptick. I'm also hoping there's a big uh late market as well.

SPEAKER_04 13:54

Simon, uh this is not what your data's saying. You're saying your data is saying flight bookings to Spain are up 32%. So where are people going to fire in Spain? And you know, how are you seeing this?

SPEAKER_03 14:06

Yeah, well, do you know what the ch the challenge with all this data is like what you do with it and when when do you take your cars and when do you do your analysis? So I think I thought I mentioned this earlier. Uh booking patterns are tricky, trickier than they've ever been. Um people generally traditionally have booked to different destinations at different times of the year. So uh I was kind of thinking, I was speaking to my data team yesterday, and saying, well, we put these numbers out for 2025 trains destinations wise back in April. Can we refresh that? What does that look like now? Are people really not booking Spain or are they booking Spain but maybe not as well via traditional search engines, etc. etc.? But actually if you if you recap that data now, what the theory is is that is meaningless when you compare it to 2020-25 as a whole. So I think for us uh that's really, really hard to work out. Anecdotally, I'm actually really surprised to hear that those destinations have got their search volume because uh actually when the disruption started to kick off in March and April, that seemed to be the go to the safe haven where people feel safe. You know, people who have long traveled to uh the Middle Spain or to Canary Islands, you know. How many times have you spoken to someone in the last three months and they said, Oh, yeah, we're going to Tenerife or Lanzarote? Um whole travel conventions have actually been uplifted and moved to the Canary Islands, you know, when they were supposed to be going to the Middle East. So I'm really surprised with that data. Um I will see if we can get a cut of something for June just to see if there is any kind of tidbits in there that kind of help us unpick that a little bit more. But yeah, that's a bit of a surprise to me actually.

SPEAKER_04 15:50

Um Andy, does this mean that people are are going to their package tour operators and not direct booking? Because I know you're all about direct booking, but that isn't if you're telling me that is not what the data is now telling us.

SPEAKER_01 16:06

Well, I mean, the the the the way people are booking holiday is very, again, very segmented, isn't it? There's a whole chunk of people who want a nice package holiday, they want to go to the med, they want to go somewhere safe, they want to pay a price, they want to get their atoll protection or appetite protection, whatever it is, and nice and nice and done. There's also a big chunk of the market, which I think um is luxury and older consumers, and they want something very different to uh seven nights in Tenerife. Um so I'm not trying to like put people into pigeonholes, but there is very different behaviours and in this in the in the search market and the buyer market. So I think perhaps at the the more packagey end, I think there's been um perhaps a bit more consolidation in that market. In the luxury side, I think there's more time for people to choose, there's more options, and I think um a different behaviour is going to be coming through there. Just interestingly, though, like that tends to sort of gravitate some somewhat towards cruise search, um, and cruise searches have been just an onward trend since COVID's happened. Growth, growth, growth, fantastic numbers. Again, this year's a bit of a slowdown in the cruise market, which I guess goes to the point of like people just being a bit more cautious.

SPEAKER_03 17:18

Do you think do you think because I I I think the crew the cruise market has been fantastic, hasn't it, since COVID? I mean it's taken on a life of its own.

SPEAKER_04 17:25

Um which is amazing given all the stories reported during COVID and cruise, but yeah, I agree.

SPEAKER_03 17:31

Yeah, yeah, right. And just opening it up to demographics that would never have dreamed of uh you know, dreamed of going on a cruise. You know, you've now got your Disney cruises, you've got your virgin voyages, um you know, just really opening it up. Shipyards are full as well, you know, people can't build these things quick enough. Um, and you can imagine how long the lead time is for that. What uh I mean obvious obviously there's been issues with a couple of um a couple of cruise operators this year in terms of virus outbreaks and whatnot. But what what do you what do you think is kind of driving the downturn in in the cruise market this year, Andy? Because I I'm I'm not sure I've got my finger on what that is yet.

SPEAKER_01 18:11

I'm hesitant to call it a downturn. Again, I don't have the booking data around cruises per se, and uh no doubt we'll have Andy Harmer on here at some point to talk about the actual numbers. But yeah, searches have just seemed to sort of plateau decline a bit. And again, there's again more of a uh bifurcation between river and ocean. Um there's again lots of deals going through the market, and people again maybe booking a little bit further up to 28 uh or even 27. So um it's hard to say specifically, but again, I think it all just goes to the bigger point of you know, we're in a bit of an uncertain time, and if I can hold off, perhaps there's just a chunk of people that are now doing that. But uh again, let's see what June throws up, and we're looking forward to your numbers. No pressure.

SPEAKER_04 18:53

Yeah, no pressure at all. I I for me, I think it it probably falls nicely into the the you know the overriding sort of message that um I'm getting from your numbers, which is for the first time, and you you've always spoken, the Barkley have always spoken at the forum about how travelers outperformed other discretionary spends, but for the first time, that gap has now closed. So there is a you know, I think people don't have the money that they did have, you know, the the country seems well, everything's more seems more expensive. I know that there's all the inflationary figures and everything else, but just the sense you talk to people, you know, things are tough, taxes are high, there's not enough money to spend because everything is more expensive. And I think that's starting to bite now. And I think obviously that's reflected in your numbers as well. Um, which is I mean, that that's sad because the the drum that kept being beaten, certainly by you guys or reported by you guys, was you know, travel was the one thing that was resilient to to all of that.

SPEAKER_01 19:59

And I I don't will, you're saying very negative here, but it's I am negative. But come on, people will be travelling, people will be going on holiday this summer, the numbers will come through. It's just a matter of as I say sitting and waiting, but you know, this this negativity, we talk ourselves down a little bit of yeah, prices are high, costs are going up on fuel, people want to deal, you know, there's going to be a squeeze, and I think more importantly, squeeze in profitability this summer rather than people not booking. That's my that's my opinion.

SPEAKER_04 20:31

Uh, you know, I'm you know I'm negative. Sorry, sorry, son, you know I'm negative. I just want to pick up with with uh Andy on that. But don't you think that post-COVID there's just been this ever-inflating kind of bubble because people saved money, people realized how precious it was to travel. But we don't talk, you know, COVID used to be in every sentence, you went to every you know, trade show, and and COVID was certainly in a presentation. Now it's all AI, but I do think that it's possibly got to a point where there isn't that much more growth to go, and also there are external pressures that are restricting this. So I just don't see it as an ever-increasing um bubble. I I accept that it'll probably sit fairly stable, and I accept that people love and want to travel and people that have to travel bug, and that's why we we talk about this, that's why we've created this podcast. But there does come a time where you just can't, and I can't remember what show it was that we were talking, maybe just the three of us talking. There does come a time where you cannot just keep delivering this endless growth because it's a saturated market that that also has people that have got other cost concerns. You know, Simon, am I right?

SPEAKER_03 21:54

Yes and no. Go on out.

SPEAKER_04 21:56

Just go yes, right. We're gonna we'll edit out the no. Do you know what?

SPEAKER_03 22:01

I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna say why I think yes and then a bit of no. So the reason I think uh yes, I've I've stood up on stage a couple of times and said uh Do you know what, right? You've been going like that since COVID, and uh at some point uh to Will's point things are gonna level out, things are gonna become flat or flatter. And for a lot of businesses that had already happened last year. Um you know, not everyone had another record breaking year. In fact, actually, it was very few businesses had record breaking years. So I think from that perspective, I mean, one of the things that I'd said on stage was actually, do you know what? In any other industry uh doing the same as what you did the year before would be seen as a success, um, especially over discretionary spin markets, you know, let alone over any other anything else from an industrial's perspective or whatever. So, you know, I I I think we were very quick to be negative about uh non-record breaking years. That doesn't mean that anyone's doing a bad job, that doesn't mean that anyone should be looking at the industry negatively. I I just think that that that should be the case. That said, in May, consumer confidence in spending was actually slightly up overall. So uh you look at the the report from May, 65% um just check that one right now. So consumer confidence in their household finances and ability to live within their means improved one percentage point each to 65 and 70 percent, respectively. Confidence in non-essential spending grew from 52% up from 49%. So it's contradicting the travel numbers, but I think that is also largely because of the massive uptick in trend since COVID. Um, and that's where we see confusion in the data. Andy.

SPEAKER_01 23:48

Taking that on then, so if we're up in confidence in May, then let's hope June's a good month, right? Like it's if people are feeling confident, sun's out, England doing well in the football, I'm gonna put that trip. You know, I think I think there's gonna be a good lakes market, and I'm gonna stand on that hill and Will's gonna shoot at me, but I don't care.

SPEAKER_04 24:05

Yeah, you sound like James with all your what ifs. So weather's gonna be good, there's rain forecast for next week, England gonna do well in the football. I mean, we we're playing all the what if cards. Um, fingers crossed though. Um, yeah, I mean that the though were those figures, were they solely the confidence wasn't solely for travel though, was it? That was uh consumer budget. So I think it it does come down to whether you know they still see travel as such a priority, and maybe it is exactly to the point that we've spoken about before, Andy. Uh the boom in the late market, everyone is looking for a deal. So yes, they will travel. And it I think the interesting thing will potentially come between not actual spend, but actually numbers traveling. Do you know what I mean? So so actually you you might be spending less per head, but traveling more or as often as you were before, because there is this drive to the late market.

SPEAKER_03 24:59

So is there a theme? Is there a theme? You know, do we think a theme coming through this year like it had done in previous years when belts were were tightened where people would trade down as well? So I remember an ABTA event earlier this year, sort of talking about the history of APTA. You know, traditionally some holidays were actually three weeks long, then it became 14, then it became seven or ten, whatever mix it it is now, because people traded down because holidays got more and more expensive. And you know, you then come to the back of COVID, it was five star to four star to three star. Um but it's also that increased pressure on those operators to deliver better value for what people are actually paying as well. So I I there's always there's always that mix, right? That the industry is incredibly resilient by being creative for what it can offer its its consumers.

SPEAKER_01 25:51

Yeah, and I think I think trading training trading down in uh star, trading down in time, trading down also location. I say trading down, but just the growth of other places uh which are non I'd say non-standard or non you know um high high mass market has definitely happened with places like Albania, all of the stuns off the back of race across the world. You know, they are cheaper, but still similarly um you know, um historical beaches, weather, all of those things are now gonna mean we I say we just go to different places.

SPEAKER_04 26:23

Yeah, or at different times, you know, the the rise of sort of the shoulder season on that side of things. I think the danger will come in the next couple of years. I think right now, actually, people are bargaining. You know, people are uh we've spoken extensively about lates, but you know, people are getting the deals uh at whatever they can afford. And and obviously they will try and push their budget for all that they can. But one of the things we addressed in our late episode was the need for the the industry to actually stabilize because it's unsustainable for operators and it's unsustainable for the market to have this endless late and this endless drive for deals. So I think that would be really interesting, sort of um looking forward. So who knows? But I want you to put your heads on the block. Crystal ball time, just to wrap it up. How do you see the next couple of years um going in terms of I guess from what I want to drill down into um where travel will sit in that discretionary spend? What's what's your gut feeling, both of you, on that? And do you see let's say peace holds, let's play a James Clark what if peace holds. Um, you know, do you see the numbers next year being as they were sort of 12 months ago? Simon, you're on the spot first.

SPEAKER_03 27:44

If peace holds, I I think there's uh continued reason for being optimistic. Um I do think you were right in what you were saying just now, in that the industry needs to work out how to stabilize. Um now, assuming we are on a level playing field, I think that stability can and will come in 2027. Um what we don't have is a crystal ball for what could be the next geopolitical event. Um you know, what we talk about in our marketings, when we talk of our analysts and our credits, black to one event, you know, is a business uh sufficiently protected to survive a black to one event? Well, in trouble it seems like they come around like every every other year, right? So that that in itself is the biggest challenge and the biggest upset to what could happen in the next year or two. Outside of that, I think you know, stability will happen. Um that's the big failures, uh failures have been pretty minimal despite everything that's been going on, and the the industry has built its own resilience and creativity. Um, but I do think that we should remove expectations for more record-breaking years going forward. So I think I think we just have to be a little bit more sensible and rational about that.

SPEAKER_01 28:57

Andy? I think um the next couple of years is going to be very hard. I still think you've got a big lot of inflationary pressures, you've still got a lot of um uncertainty around fuel costs. And I was listening to uh the Delta CEO last week saying he thinks high jet fuel prices are here to stay for the next 12 months, and if that is the case, regardless of what happens politically, what happens to long haul travel, what happens to you know, cost of people booking flights directly versus package. I think again there's there'll be a total totality to all of the bookings we'll see, and I don't think it's gonna rise much with inflation, but within that, there'll be a whole load of churn of not long haul going short haul, not seven days going for 14 days is my big holiday, but locally even staycations in the local um UK market. So I think the numbers will stay roughly the same, but the mix underneath could definitely churn a lot.

SPEAKER_04 29:52

Yep, I agree. Thanks, guys. That that's been really insightful.

SPEAKER_01 29:55

Sorry, Will, we'll just come to you. Will come on, we didn't come to you. What do you think?

SPEAKER_04 30:00

I agree. No, I never will come back. No, uh I I think it I think from a spend perspective, it will say uh stay relatively the same. But I think to your point, the underlying numbers will vary. Um, I think I think costs continue to get higher. I can't see that dramatically going, especially on long haul, you know, um fuel duty, whatever else is going to be a challenge to to many operators. But I think to Simon's point, that's okay. And I think as an industry, we need to forgive ourselves a little bit more that you know we we can't have that all the time. We can't have a post-COVID kind of rise. It's okay to keep, you know, pushing along, to keep delivering amazing product and to make a reasonable profit as as businesses. It's yeah, I'd like to see some stability and some realism around that. And that means that the late markets go, which I think it has to, uh, and I know that's dictated by the consumers and and everything else, but I think um market forces will will drive that away, and then we will see that stability and and we'll be perhaps even more resilient than we are now. That's my view, that's my tuppance first.

SPEAKER_03 31:14

All of that for me as well, though. One one last thing just to add on that, and this is a bit of a boring sort of bank bank thing, um, rather than kind of exciting consumer demand trends and stuff like that. Um I think there'll be some consolidation in the next couple of years. Yeah. Um, I think when you're looking for growth as a business, how do you do that? You do that by uh gaining market share from others, you gain that by consolidation, mergers, and acquisition. Um, you know, we obviously as a bank have these conversations all the time. Um, and this year is is is one of those years where we're having that. Well, actually, you know, where does our next lot of growth come from if demand isn't gonna you know continue to be in the double digits or close to double digits in 27-28? Where else can we get that growth from? So I think I think we should keep one eye on that.

SPEAKER_04 32:04

There we go. That that's the final word on that. And and look, really appreciate all your insight, uh, Simon, on that. And Andy, as ever, thanks for your comment and and and all your figures.

SPEAKER_00 32:15

Thanks to our sponsor, TravelZoo, the club for travel enthusiasts. Join Travel Zoo today for handpicked deals exclusively for members.

SPEAKER_04 32:25

Simon, before you go, uh every guest that comes on this show has to play our wonderful game, talking travel or talking twaddle. So I'm gonna give you five statements and you're gonna tell me if they're true, as in travel, or false, as in twaddle. And you told me before the call that you you liked a little bit of pressure, you like that kind of um jeopardy. So let me tell you where the jeopardy is in terms of the leaderboard currently. So I think the benchmark or below the benchmark would be my beloved co-hosts Andy and James with two out of five. Yes. Um, unfortunately, the lovely Cresta Sergeant fell a little below that. Uh Claire Steiner scored a very strong four. Um, and there is one score above that. But I mean, do you want to talk about that, Andy? Do you want to pick that up?

SPEAKER_01 33:18

Or should we carry on? No, fine.

SPEAKER_04 33:22

Um says five out of five. Uh Will Plummer, is it? Yeah, Will Plummer. Five out of five.

SPEAKER_03 33:28

Don't you write the questions, they will.

SPEAKER_04 33:29

No, no, James Bark did that. So it's all on James. So here we go. Travel or twaddle. Simon Atkinson, travel banking. Here we go. Number one. And they're all actually payments related. So I've I've been kind to you.

unknown 33:46

Yeah, great.

SPEAKER_04 33:47

Chargeback rates in the travel industry are typically higher in winter than in summer due to cancelled ski trips.

SPEAKER_03 33:54

Oh, I'm gonna say you are correct.

SPEAKER_04 34:00

Well, good start. Number two, dynamic currency conversion or DCC was originally introduced as a consumer protection measure to show travelers the cost in their home currency.

SPEAKER_01 34:14

Travel.

SPEAKER_04 34:17

Andy, you see that's how it's done. Oh, that's two things.

SPEAKER_03 34:20

Do you know what? I forgot to answer then. I was just agreeing with the statement. I was like, yeah, what's the question?

SPEAKER_04 34:28

Number three, the euro was physically circulated as cash until three years after it became the official currency for transactions.

SPEAKER_03 34:37

Oh, say that again.

SPEAKER_04 34:38

The euro was physically circulated as cash. It wasn't, sorry. That was my fault. The euro wasn't physically circulated as cash until three years after it became the official currency for transactions.

SPEAKER_03 34:52

Hmm, I I well, I remember it coming in. Um obviously I was very, very young. Um I I don't know, that doesn't feel right, Twaddle.

SPEAKER_04 35:01

That is travel, I'm afraid. Absolutely. Uh number four, 3D secure authentication was originally developed by a coalition of airlines to reduce ticket fraud.

SPEAKER_03 35:19

Well, this is where I need a barley card specialist, don't I? Um I'm gonna I'm gonna say that's Twaddle because I think it's bigger than Trump.

SPEAKER_04 35:27

It was Twaddle. It was actually developed by Visa. So and the last one, staying on car schemes. American Express was originally founded as a freight forwarding company, not a financial services firm.

SPEAKER_03 35:42

I shouldn't know that, shouldn't I? Like without even thinking. Um, this is a time. I'm just gonna say that's travel. I mean, that's true.

SPEAKER_04 35:50

That is true. Simon Atkinson, four out of five, takes you into joint second place with Claire Steiner. What an absolute treat. And that's how it's done, Andy. Andy, thank you to you, but massive thank you to Simon uh for all he's bought today. That that's been a great episode. Uh, it's been another episode of Let's Talk Travel. Please do like, subscribe, and share. We've got our LinkedIn uh handle, which is Let's Talk Travel Podcast. Uh, we also can be found on YouTube. And please do find us. Uh, let us know what you think. Let us know what you'd like to see on the show. Reach out if you want to come on the show, and please do continue to listen to us.