Hello and welcome to the swim brief mega Olympic Trials Preview. Now, just to set this up for you guys, um, a little bit, what kind of expertise we're bringing to this. Um first we we have Eric Wiken. Eric, um he's actually in Nebraska right now. He's uh he's had an active leaderboard for his Olympic trials picks for the last 18 months. He's been moving, he's got a board in his house, been moving people up and down. So he is uh excessively prepared. Eric, how are you?
SPEAKER_02Uh I'm pretty good. I uh I printed out the event list last night and I wrote some notes.
SPEAKER_00Don't lie, Eric. Don't lie to this. Don't lie to my audience, okay? They they know.
SPEAKER_04They know the Mel the Mel Kuyper of uh Olympic Trials here. That's right.
SPEAKER_00I'll take his salary. He's Mel Kuper, but with better hair, Eric Wycon. Um, and on the other hand, we have Joel Rawlings, who we actually had to tell a couple days ago, Eric and I had to tell him that Olympic trials was happening. And he was pretty surprised by that news. But he's he's um he's caught all the way up. He's ready to talk. Uh Tokyo 2021 qualifying. How are you, Joel?
SPEAKER_04I'm doing great. Thanks. Yeah, I'm I'm excited.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. And I got a big, I got uh, I got some D3 swimming talk coming later in this podcast. That's what we call a tease. Yeah, I know. Pretty exciting stuff.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00Really exciting stuff. Um, and I'm somewhere in the middle uh between these two guys. So together, we're like the perfect blend, okay, of um of Olympic trials preparation. All right. Um, so let's get right into it. Well, the format uh as proposed by Eric here is we're gonna go day by day. Each of us have looked at one thing per day that we're really excited about, and then a second thing that we're almost as excited about. Um, and we're gonna give sort of uh, you know, our our uh thing we're excited about and brief explanation why, and we're gonna keep it moving um all the way through eight days of Olympic trials. So you guys ready? Absolutely. Born ready, yeah. Okay. So let's get to uh day one, Eric. First, what do you got on that first day of the meet?
SPEAKER_02Um, quick preface this whole entire meet, like anybody who's gonna hate on any of these picks, there are very few races even within the semis or even prelims that are not gonna be exciting. So if we skip your best event or your favorite event, you know, get over it.
SPEAKER_00Um Shane Kasas and you wish Eric would talk about you, you know, just realize that Shane's his favorite, and that's that. I don't know.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so starting out day one is um for me, it's the very first event. We're starting out with this men's 400 im final. There's a lot to be said about it. We don't know what's gonna happen with Makdi. Is Body gonna be able to show up for this very first race? Um, you know, this is gonna be some big final for Carson Foster, his very first one in terms of the trials and expected to be um near the top, and it's just gonna set off the meet on a really fantastic uh tone. And then kind of coming right behind it, my honorable mention is the women's hunter fly. I'm just really intrigued by the pair of 16 and 18-year-olds that are into this, and just looking at the top eight as a whole, nobody's gonna be able to just kind of get into the top eight. There's a little bit of wiggle room, but there's so much speed below that 58 mark that it's gonna be really difficult for for everybody to able to just kind of get in. So yeah, that's what day one.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I I want to echo because the the 100 fly was my honorable mention. I just want to uh point that out as well. I think this is definitely one of those events, and I think one of the themes is you know, the the fact that this meet is taking place a year later. Um, it's allowed a couple of really young swimmers to continue, they get an extra year of development, and now it looks like two really young swimmers are like dominant in that hunter butterfly. Whereas, you know, I think there was at a point in the lead up to this meet where you thought would have thought, Kelsey Dahlia is a shoe-in. She's gonna make the hunter fly, no doubt. Now she's seeded third, so she's actually sort of more of a dark horse in this event because um, if you look back at the history of Olympic trials, if you're seated in the top two, there's a better than 50% chance you're gonna make the team. Okay, so um that means if you're seeded third, your your your uh just raw probability of making the team is it's less than a coin flip. Um and uh I'm really interested to see whether she can break that up or not. She's she's a tremendous swimmer, um, but will it be enough to um break through on that one? All right, Joel.
SPEAKER_04I think yeah, I think it's definitely the same thing what you're saying there is something that uh kind of goes under the radar. Is uh it is it's one of those where you if you're seated well, because I think it's like the average is like 19 people get best times at these these bigger meets. I mean, say for nationals and things, people always have different ideas, whether it's like you know, the travel, is it the stage, whatever it might be. But with only 19, like you're saying, it's like if you're if you're third, it's like you are you've become a dark horse. You're like, oh, if you have a lane, you have a chance. Like, well, that's you're sure you've got a chance, but it's it's not as great as people like to think. And and you're absolutely right. It's one year, I think that these 16, 18-year-olds, it was amazing watching the first wave, just how many young swimmers there are. And and again, you look down the road four years. Uh what could possibly happen?
SPEAKER_00Yeah. And we were talking about Tori Husky there and Claire Kurzan. Um uh and I I think you talk about the personal best, it's really interesting. I mean, I I haven't crunched the numbers on wave one Olympic trials. So um, but if I had to guesstimate like the percentage of best times at that meet, I would say it was less than 10%. And, you know, there's a pretty good reason for that. I mean, making Olympic trials is hard. It's probably for a lot of these swimmers, it's been the sum of their lives to qualify for the meet. So them being able to replicate a better swim at the meet is highly unlikely. Now, the interesting thing for wave two is maybe we're gonna see a significantly higher percentage than than 19%, because now we've got a self-selected group that um where there's more people that didn't have to have the sum of their lives to qualify, you know, and and this may be this may be their their big moment. Um Joel, what do you have for for day one?
SPEAKER_04I I like you said, I really like uh the hundreds all the way through the hundreds of strokes, I think, are gonna be really pretty interesting. Uh again, A, just with the nature of sprint, anything can happen, but B, uh just how many different people are kind of in that in that hunt like that. And so I think that's gonna be really, really interesting to watch. Um I I like watching the IAMs the most. I like watching uh the IAMs in the in the first wave the most. Uh just because I just as a former club coach, I always thought, you know, there's the event, you know, foreign and I am really shows the training, shows the coaching, shows everything like that. Uh, but when you look, again, we're talking Olympic trials just for setting up for the Olympics. Um, I think the US is going to do the best in the shorter events like that, the foreign and I am the mile and things like that, just just aren't quite there yet.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. All right. So speaking of that, um uh one of um my day one things is is actually men's distance. And I'm gonna come back to this uh another time during it. But one thing I want to point out is of course, I've identified myself on this podcast as a um as the chief panic officer, you know, who who starts to panic about our Olympic chances. And I mean, I can remember the last trials that I attended, that was 2012. Um, there was some doubt as to whether the American men would get two swimmers under the FINA A standard. So we could actually send two swimmers in the 400 free. And I believe they just got under. Now, at the Olympics, Peter Vanderkey won a bronze medal. So there's there is a little bit of history of the the men's distance looking non-competitive, coming into this meet, and still maybe coming out of this meet, not looking very competitive, but actually overachieving at the Olympics. So I'm going to be watching for this because I think that we have some distance swimmers, certainly with the potential to contend. And sometimes it just doesn't come through until that moment. And one of the um just strengths of the American team is consistently they have surprisingly good performances at the Olympics, right? So um uh, you know, I'm gonna be watching this 400 free for any glimmer of hope for um, you know, I knew the women's 400 free, like, hey, we we we know um what can come with that, but this men's 400 free, um, is there is there a glimmer of hope for somebody to have that breakthrough swim at the Olympics?
SPEAKER_02This was a hard choice. All these finals on this first day at 400 free, I was looking at that same thing. Like, I want to see what Kieran Smith does. I just yeah, yeah, he's got this high that he's riding coming off of you know NCAAs and the success of just training great, racing great, that it's gonna be fantastic to watch. That whole first day is gonna be nuts.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I think there's an intangible there that like he has very high-stakes competitive experience and you can't you can't underplay that. Um, a lot of swimmers from foreign countries, they swim too many meets where they're they're they're not uh they don't have good competition. I mean, like if you're the fastest 400 freestyler in I know that's from from being in a little country in in Denmark, if you don't leave Denmark, okay, um, and you're really, really good, you're world class, you'll swim so many meets where nobody's anywhere near you. And um, it makes it hard to be competitively sharp. Whereas somebody like Kieran Smith, uh, even as dominant as he's been, he's getting pushed basically all the time, right? Um, competitively. And I think there's something to that. Yeah, even in practice with Bobby Finky and all that stuff. Um, all right, day two, back to Eric. What do we what do you got for day two?
SPEAKER_02Um, that Hunter Fly final starting right out the gate. We've already talked about it. You've already talked of like about what what we've got here. Um, you know, is Kelsey gonna be able to pull it off? Is she gonna be able to get past those those two young guns? Both of them have been on international travel teams. Has that been enough to get them ready for an Olympic trials final? Is it gonna be where that ignorance is bliss, or are we gonna see that they are just that lights out already at this point and are gonna be able to swim in the biggest final of their young lives so far? So that's my that's my big one for it. And then the honorable mention by a slim margin is that men's hunter breath final. Um I I want to see the USRPT King. I want to see him in, I want to see him in that top two. I just want to see it. Like it's just it was like when Phelps won that Hunter fly in in 2009, and he's you know, he's shown that he's not doing it in the polyurethane super suit. Um, I want I want to see him up on the lane ropes, I want to see him splashing all over the place. Um, I want to see him make it. And then I'm just hoping that we can see an American press choker under 58. Like it's it's so important for those medley relays in the Olympics that these guys are able to push that 57 on a flat start, 57 low when it matters most because they're going for that relay against Great Britain. And we know that you know these they're coming to play. 80 is 55 on that relay split. Maybe we don't know how to make up for that. Right. So that's that it's just it's it's such a crazy situation that that hunter breast has a much bigger impact down the road in Tokyo.
SPEAKER_00So those are my two Yeah, I'm I'm I mean, again, huge Michael Andrew fan. I want to see, is this the beginning of the Olympic drink for Michael Andrew? It feels like we've been waiting for this moment for I don't know, like nine years, you know, it it's um it's been building towards something and he's so close. And I think it's gonna be pretty apparent from the beginning of the meet here, you know, if he can swim just a little bit faster than he did um at that meet a month out, uh he's gonna make the team. Um and he's probably gonna make the team in multiple events. So um I'll be really interested to see. Um, you talk about the the Great Britain and relays. I also want to see this semi-final uh men's 200 free. I want to see like are can we stack up against what they've they've put up? Because it's a formidable, formidable relay. And if you look at the seeds on paper right now, we're we're behind by a good bit. Um and you know, I think it's gonna be so competitive to make it into a final because everybody stacks so close that maybe the picture is gonna come into a little clearer focus as to whether we can get uh a group of swimmers to be competitive in that relay and and challenge uh Great Britain for a gold medal. Um, Joel, what do you got?
SPEAKER_04I think I think that's why you see a lot of these guys that are signing up for so many different events, you know, five, six events. And you think normally like an older swimmer would be like just just pick your spots. But exactly these relays are pretty much wide open. And and so if they can put up a good hundred or two hundred uh time here, you know, they got a chance at making the team. Um, if if anything isn't alternate on the hundreds and two hundreds, um, you even the bigger name swimmers, you know, just getting a couple hundreds or two hundreds swims down, something maybe a non-pressure event for them, but also just to get a time on the board so that you know they have a shot at another relay or something. And I I always hear like people talk about, especially on women swimming, like, you know, it's just gonna be too big of a moment. These kids are like 17, 18. And I I think good or bad, I think the kids now are so much more mature in the sport that you don't see that. You know, they've been racing in big meets for quite some time. You know, it's not like all of a sudden they came out of a zones meet out of North Dakota, you know, like a Jaggedy Knoxon back in the day, right this is they've been swimming big meets for a long time. So I don't think the moment's gonna be too big. I think they're gonna they're gonna race up and it's gonna be tough. Like the hunter flies, exactly. I feel like you know, we're all saying the same thing with the hunter flies, exactly what we're kind of looking at because it it's pretty amazing. Like you said, I'll send two kids, like one year extra, and now they're here.
SPEAKER_00Yep, yep. You got uh anything else for that day, Joel, or we uh we move we've racing on to day three.
SPEAKER_04I didn't even race on day three, but again, like you said, the 200s after watching what Great Britain did, uh it's it's gonna be something. Um, one thing you kind of touched on though is again how the United States swims at Olympics. I remember uh talking to Chris Martin a few years back, and he's been to you know numerous Olympics and he's been on uh numerous international teams, and he said that's one of the things the United States has going for it is that the the Olympics are far more special to the United States swimmers than they are to a lot of other swimmers. And maybe that'll change over time, but but he said it was it was just it's a different feel for the United States team to be at the Olympics because this is their big moment. Well, in Europe they have world championships, and so they've got that kind of light on them, of course. So it's not a pressure thing, it's just the Olympics have a mystique in the United States that that is um unparalleled.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, and we're used to being the the dominant team and and winning, and um there's there's a certain aura to that. All right, Eric, bring us to day three.
SPEAKER_02Um day three was another really hard pick. Uh you have four finals in the dead center of that session, so it's just gonna be absolute mayhem by the time we get um to the Ment's 200 fly semi. But my top pick right now is wanting to see what's coming of uh the backstroke, the hunter back final. Um is you know, is what are we gonna see from Reagan Smith? What are we gonna see from there's Steve Macon, Olivia Spoliga, there's just so many names on that list, we just don't know what's gonna happen. Um, and then and then the big news with Kathleen Baker coming off of that foot injury. Um, there's there's video of her now doing a start um on social media. So there's definitely that ability to be able to get off the wall, but is that is that an issue? Are those we're talking about a race that is really, really tight. Is that gonna be a problem for the start and that turn in the biggest final for them at this point in the meet? And then just back to back, it you know, that's that's my guy Shane Kostaski got his first potential final there to make it in hunter back. Things definitely are wide open in that race. And then with um you know, Jacob Pebble stepping back from competition right now to take care of himself, um, which 100% respect, I think, is amazing. Um but right that really changes things a bit for that final. And are they going to be able to be able to push that in and see if if Brian Murphy is going to continue to be that backstroker that we've had in the past, like a Pearcell who just continues to shine in the biggest final? Um it'll be it'll be good to watch. You can't forget the old man uh out there. Yeah, Matt Greavers is still out there. We don't know what that big taper is. He's got that old man strength, he's gas now, he's got all of these little elements that are coming in. He's just it's it's gonna be an interesting vinyl to watch for sure.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's gonna be a measure whether grips how important grip strength is in the men's underbat. Because as Joel knows, when you have a small child, your grip strength, it really is a real thing because your your your grip ramps up to prevent you know, multiple times per day your child ending their own life, you know, by just grabbing them when they're teetering on the brink of something. So, you know, will Matt Greavers be able to translate that? I I think Eric too, like I've got Kathleen Baker on here because you know, you got the the former world record holder. Um, and far be it from me to make it through a podcast without throwing a bomb at Swim Slam. But I have to say, and this goes to a broader theme of news. I I don't know how you can consider yourself a news site when Kathleen Baker injures her foot in the beginning of May, and the only way we find out about it is via a social media post she made herself being like, oh, by the way, I hurt my foot in May, but I'm all good now. Yeah. Um you know, I think there's a little bit of um you know, having this conversation in the office here where um a lot of news sites have lost their way in the age of social media because you know it used to be that the the job of news sites was to present um was to present like a critical analysis of what was going on. Um and social media has turned that on the head because like you know, your social media, you're just basically PR for yourself or your organization, right? Or whatever. And it almost seems like sometimes Swim Swam is just operating as a uh amplifier for personal PR. Um, and that's how I felt with the Kathleen Baker story. That said, I'm a huge fan of hers. I hope that she's at or close to 100% because we could really use that as a as a uh uh US Olympic team. Uh Joel, what do you got there on day three?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I definitely with Baker and like with Whitefield, just them um always having having some issues. And obviously with Baker, this is a foot injury, it's a little bit different than things she's had in the past, but but those two injury issues again, where you're like these are like veteran swimmers that would really uh I I think just um with their character and things do real so well on Olympic team where it has a chance of having so many young swimmers on it. Uh and and then we say grievers is the old man, I was thinking Murphy's the old man, I forgot Grievers. There's there's really old man, but but like because Murphy seems like he's been around forever. And the thing is that veteran kind of a again, not not that it's a psychological thing, but just kind of knowing how to train and and what to expect and what you need to put up for numbers before you get to the trials. I I think Murphy's gonna do really well here. Um but again, uh Kasas, you know, Eric's Eric's uh Eric's the number one fan for that, but you know, he's he's had an amazing year, and so uh it'd be cool to see that get carried forward as well.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and it would just so the listeners know, we we are planning on starting a GoFundMe for Eric if Shane Kasas doesn't make the Olympic team, um, just to give him some support through that tough time.
SPEAKER_03Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Um, yeah, so you know, look for that. If you if you're watching the results and you see Shane gets third, um, obviously know that we've got something in the works. All right. Yeah. Um, I I would say my other story for that day, and I just want to this is sort of more context and and history is the women's 1500 free. This will be the first time um it's contested at the Olympic trials. And, you know, just to bring people back to the history of that, this is sort of a sexist old relic that this event has not been there. When they added a distance event for women, it was the 800-free. It was sort of like how women used to not be allowed to compete in the marathon because there was a theory like, oh my gosh, it'd be too exhausting for them. Of course, you know, science now tells us that actually the longer the distance gets, the smaller the performance gap between men and women. So it's just the opposite. And so that, you know, there's going to be history made in that race. And I think it's great for the US too, because we happen to have the most dominant 1500 freestyler in the history of the sport. And so it's just great to see that change come in. And there's also, you know, a million uh workworks distance coaches out there who are probably thrilled that there's another long race here at the Olympics instead of adding those damn stroke 50s, you know. So congrats to everybody and uh look for that history making in the 1500 free. All right, day four.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, day four. Um I thought about putting that for that final race. You know, you're talking about the women's 1500 on on day three with that prelim swim being the first one, but it feels like it's gonna be kind of a foregone conclusion as far as who's getting first. So I kind of uh I kind of tried to avoid that one. Um the most intriguing race to me that night is is the women's 200 IM. Um, because we're seeing, you know, in I didn't mention it earlier with the women's 4 im. You know, Margallis, if I remember correctly, was very hesitant to even get into the 400 IM when she started really um training for it and competing it just to kind of help amp up her 2 im. And that was several years ago, and now she's the best 400 IM or we have in and being able to see if she's coming off of that, she's gonna be able to put in that that 2 im again. And Mass and Cox has been very consistent this season and was able to actually drop a really good time recently. Is she going to be able to capitalize on that momentum and up on the team? And then you have um you know Walsh at 19 years old, another one of those kind of young ones we talked about, you know, Joel alluded to their already elite level meets that they've gone on as far as our international travel for our junior team goes. And then, you know, Kathleen Baker, is that foot going to be able to make it to that final of that 2 im? Is the freelan 2 im, you know, you know, is that gonna be enough? Um, just there's there's still some questions there as that race comes through. And then my honorable mention is the men's tuner fly. Um, it's it's a it's a wide open race to see first-time Olympians in this two fly. Yeah, you know, with Luca Orlando, like how's he doing? Um is he gonna be able to come back on that two fly that he had a while ago? Zach Harding is up there, been consistent. Is Julian gonna like continue this storybook senior year and be able to sneak in there? There's just there's so much intrigue and with Tom Shields and the 200 fly being a little bit rough this spring and being able to close it. Is he gonna be ready for that two that third two fly? Um you know, at within Olympic trials, is he gonna be, you know, is he gonna be ready for that with everything going on? And um just a lot at play for an event that used to be without a question, it was just gonna be Michael Cloud, who's gonna win the gold, and that was gonna be it. And it was just you know, like Katie Ledecki in the distance freestyle. It's it it's it's gonna be an interesting finish uh that last 25, I imagine.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. I've got the same two events, so I'm just going to add um what I can. I mean, I I think uh, you know, Madison Cox in the 200 IM, you talk about another swimmer who's seems to be benefiting from the timing. I mean, she's just surging at the right moment. Um, and uh really what I want to see in in Luca Orlando is he's kind of stuck in this um middle zone where uh right now Christoph Milak of Hungary is the dominant swimmer internationally in that event. He's quite a bit ahead of Orlando. Um, but then Orlando is ahead of sort of um the rest of the pack. And can he close that gap so that it's competitive? Um, you know, certainly he's young enough that we could see some significant improvement out of him and um make it a really competitive race in the Olympics, and and that's what I'm gonna be watching for. Joel, what do you have?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, this is I feel bad. This is the page I was like, next, yeah, I was like, it was a day not, yeah. I was looking through all the other results and things. I was looking at these, and this is a day where I'm just like, I I don't want to see my like I know I'm gonna come off like as a hater here, but it's like I think like you have like a Lodeckee or Phelps, and they've covered so many holes for so long, in a sense, where it's like you have a dominant person. So I don't know if people are like, well, maybe we just don't even you know really go after this event, or just it's just covered up what we're kind of weaker at. This is one of those days where it's like, eh, I mean, it's not as not as interesting. The interesting thing for me right now is just with the discovery of Baker's injury, like again, if if there's any lingering pain off of that, you know, everything's gonna be in that backstroke. And then if you if you heard anything, I'm sure the internal end, everything for her event, it's gonna be over. And then also the next day, hey, you got the 200 im. And it's like a whole different kind of pressure on your foot, you know, a lot of different angles and things like that. And so it'll be interesting to see how that works. But again, I feel bad that I was just like, yeah, yeah, kind of I've seen what the Europeans can do in the two fly and things like this. So, like, yeah, no, let's go watch it next.
SPEAKER_00All right, um, let's go to day day five. Uh Eric.
SPEAKER_02Uh, day five, uh this is the men's hunter free. Of course. Yeah, this is this is this is this is a heavyweight bout. Um, and we're gonna I who's gonna get second, you know. Dresselith, if he's gonna be on even enough, it's gonna probably be at least you know, the ability to touch out if if he's firing on all cylinders, um, you know, because he doesn't have anything that morning right now. If he doesn't want to, his morning is completely clean. So we could see a pretty significant swim if he's feeling it and wants to pop one off, you know, we can see 46 very very easily. At this stage, that would be incredible to see going into the Olympics because we know that he's just gonna he just has this ability to just be able to keep progressing throughout a season and put it where it's out there. And is Nathan Adrian gonna be able to pull it off? You know, is he gonna be able to get his hand on the wall second? There's a there's a lot of guys buying for that that second spot in that that race for that race for sixth is gonna be just as nail-biting as that race for second is, if not more so, because this is this is your opportunity. If you're sixth, you're there's a really good chance you're walking out of this with an Olympic medal and your life changing as a result of that. So that's where that's my top one, and then um the next one is the men's 200 breath.
SPEAKER_00Um we have the same ones again.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, uh it's but it but it is it's one of those races where it's like there's there's potential for new Olympians in there. Is is Cody Miller gonna be able to put it together? He's obvious his 200 is much better than his 100. He's been talking a lot about being able to train for that 200, and that's where he feels comfortable. Is Lacone gonna be able to put it together? You know, Josh Perneau has kind of been pretty quiet for a while. Is this just gonna be another one of those instances where he just shows up at that point where he needs to and just gets in? And then there's Andrew Wilson. Like, what's what you know what's gonna come of that? Is he gonna be able to get his foot in the door here for the first time and make the team? But it's just there's a lot of there's a lot of another one of those races where there's a lot of intrigue as far as who's going to have that race. And then as we all know, you being a breaststroker, there are times where that stroke just doesn't want to cooperate, yeah, you know, and these guys are dialed in, but there's there's microscopic areas where that timing might be just a little bit off, and that's really gonna throw somebody off in that long course to an abreast. And if and is it gonna come at that time for one of these guys, we just don't know. Yeah, I think it's gonna come down to a long finish. I think somebody is just gonna hit the stroke right at the right time, and they're gonna go from fourth to second.
SPEAKER_00I think that's what's gonna happen. Yeah, yeah. I mean, so I uh just to echo a couple of those points to get to the the men's hunter free. I think you know, we we might see Nathan Adrian coming full circle here. Um, I was at 2008 Olympic trials um when Adrian made his first team when he was the young gun, you know, coming up. And um one of the advantages that he had was he made it into the final. I believe he he qualified eighth out of semis. He got the last spot into the final. And this is an underrated in sprinting, it's an underrated thing, is because it's a 10-lane pool and they only compete in eight lanes. If you qualify seventh race, which nobody would try to do the how closest all these races are, right? It's impossible to do that. Air empirical would well, he might have to be like the best of all time to like to to cut that sliver, right? Um and I think it gave him a big advantage, and we could see him in that position again where he's swimming from the outside lane, he's got that open water next to him. Um, and it's able to just give him a little bit of a better chance to make it. I agree with you totally. I'm on Caleb, I wrote Caleb Dressel World Record Watch. He's so close to that world record. Um and you have to believe uh he's gonna be swimming really fast at this meet. And just to bring it full circle, you you you bring up Andrew Wilson and I said I would I would reference Division III swimming. Could we see the first US swimmer who competed in Division III make an Olympic team?
SPEAKER_01All right, I didn't even think about that.
SPEAKER_00Um and I I went back and did a little bit of uh research into some of the closer calls. Now, D3 swimming fans, and of which I don't know, are there like two or three? It's like me and Joel and Joel, and then the guys who swam at Kalamazoo in the 90s or like whatever who started D3Swimming.com, but that's probably it. But James Bourne, okay, this is a guy who swam at Kenyan College. He still from 1985 has the second best all-time hunter free at Kenyan College, 43-4. So this is a guy who is competing at D3 nationals, putting up a time that would have been competitive at the D1 NCAA meet. So I I fast forwarded, he was probably a victim a little bit of poor timing, right? Because he had to hold on till 88 for there to be another Olympic trials. He finished 13th at Olympic trials um and didn't make the final, obviously, didn't have a shot, but he was certainly close um to being able to do that. So this could, again, be another moment of history should Andrew Wilson grab one of those top two spots.
SPEAKER_04That would be pretty cool. I remember watching him swim at nationals and um and just just hearing like again, because you you're it's not like it's a big meat for Division III Nationals, and just what what a good guy he is. Uh, you know, I I forgot he was like aeronautical engineering major or some crazy thing, like a really smart kid. Uh that that'd be so cool to see that. Yeah. And and again, like the hundred free. It's like if you're from the United States, basically just like any kind of page, it's like, let's just get to the hundred free. Let's just kind of get to the meat of any kind of meat. That's all a meat is for us. It's let's get to the hundred. And yeah, definitely kind of seeing what that'll do. And I think again, uh, I really want like Abby Weitzel to do well. It'd be great to see her put together some some swimmers' meets, Caleb Dressel. Again, just it's the big name where I think um obviously swimming world knows them so well, but the the true test of fame obviously is when your mom actually knows a person's name. And so she she knows you know, Michael Phelps, yeah. And then any other swimmers, no, it's good. But I think this is gonna be the kind of a meet and the the kind of year where also never becomes a you know Caleb Dressel fan.
SPEAKER_00Caleb Dressel, everybody's mom will know Caleb Dressel, I think, by the end of the summer.
SPEAKER_04And and then, of course, the uh the good looking guy on the modello commercial is like on the face major and he's been around forever. It's like, oh, it's such a nice looking young man. Yes, yes, sure. Yes, and not that young and swimming world kind of thing. But but yeah, it's it's it's it's really cool. Again, the thing, in a sense, the sport needs um is is is those personalities, those personalities kind of coming out and and and being seen, and and the experience that those those people have. And so I think it's gonna be a lot like the Rio team in that in that you're gonna have a lot of like people who are like, who the heck is this? And uh then some of those those leaders like Andres who's been around and done so many big meets, and Nathan Adrian and and obviously Lindecki that are gonna be the ones to kind of keep everything together.
SPEAKER_00Yep.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, pretty cool.
SPEAKER_00All right, Eric, on to day six.
SPEAKER_02All right, day six, my top one is that men's 200 im. I think it's a pretty easy one at this point to pick as far as some of that stuff goes. But it's you know, at this point, Michael Andrews has gonna be having a host of races already put through. Uh, you know, this seems to be uh other than that 100 brushstroke, it really is his best opportunity to make the team. Is he gonna be able to um doesn't have to go 28 maybe on that last 50? But is he gonna be able to have the kind of energy and and everything coming into it at on that final that he's got the 100 fly uh that morning, so he doesn't have a whole lot potentially dragging him back, but it it's you know, are we gonna see that out of him? Are we gonna see something out of Foster? Is Ryan Lofty you know going to be able to get through to that that race and be able to do great? I I really would wish it would just be a matter of him picking one or two events in totality and just doing those. And but you know, the reality is by the time he gets to that 2 im, he's gonna have a lot of swims on an older body, but we just don't know what that's gonna be like because everybody ages different.
SPEAKER_00We just I don't know if he's gonna swim everything that he entered in. I I do think that there is some some over-ending.
SPEAKER_02It wouldn't surprise me. We saw what happened in 12. We saw what happened at 12 and what that did to London. I mean, it was you know, it was just it's just one of those situations.
SPEAKER_00And then come on, Eric, this is this is an older, wiser Ryan Lochti. Don't make sure.
SPEAKER_02My honorable mention, of course, is the men's 200 backstroke final. Um, you know, Pebble stepping back, this really opens the door for that that second spot. Um again, going back to the Texas AM boy, right? Fanboying it up with with Shane Cassas. He's got a chance. Um, you know, he's definitely more lined up better for that for the net 200. He's gonna have some races under his belt at this point, so some of those first race jitters might be out of there. Um and I really want to see, I really want to see something great out of Raya Murphy. You know, it's not to say that he doesn't swim great, but it's just I want to see something great for him, and I want to see this help push him towards Tokyo and really be able to kind of take back that that crown and uh and put a fantastic you know exclamation point uh on this 2021 situation for him. I'd like to see him go further, but we just don't know if this is gonna be his last game. Um but I I love watching him race. I I just everything about his backstroke, just I it's it's fantastic. As a former backstroker, you know, it it it's a great uh great race to watch on course.
SPEAKER_00I hate hate swimming it, but I love swimming it because I suck at it. So yeah, you just float. Yeah, that's right. I I don't know, I don't know how to kick, so I don't think it's a good one.
SPEAKER_01But you lose your legs in the two bag logs going, uh well see the key is to not start with any legs, Eric.
SPEAKER_00If you if you don't, if you don't start with them, you can't lose them. And then you feel pretty good the whole way.
SPEAKER_02So that's true. You can't win if you don't play.
SPEAKER_00Um Joel, do you think there's gonna be a when when Shane Cassas makes a team, do you think he in an emotional post-race interview he's gonna talk about how Eric always believed in him and how it sort of inspired him to make the team?
SPEAKER_04If he doesn't, obviously he's just so self-centered and narcissistic because he he just does it. I mean, he's gotta feel the love, just I mean, from the whole state of Texas. It's like I just feel this surge of power from me coming from the Houston area, and I don't know what it is. Yeah, that's that's why speaking of surge of power. That's right. That was a surge.
SPEAKER_00Uh that was uh more than a power surge.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, that's this is this is why, like again, when it comes to Olympic trials, I'm kind of like I'm looking for like the one thing, and so the one thing for me would be the Ryan Murphy. Obviously, uh, I think you're right with Lochy. I think he's just trying to make a team on a re on a relay or something like that. Just try to get one more swim so you can hang out in the Olympic village. That's just my guess.
SPEAKER_00Yes, and stay on the village, stay in the village, yeah. No leaving the village, Ryan. Okay, this time. Yeah, he's mature pal. He's mature now, married kids, yeah. Married, kids just settle down.
SPEAKER_02He's gonna stay not real.
SPEAKER_00Stay on the village, no lying to Billy Bush, okay? On the beach. You don't want to be on the beach making making up stories to Billy Bush. I don't think Billy Bush will be there, so there's that. You know, he's still disgraced from the Access Hollywood tape. Um Colby College, love Billy Bush, by the way, you know, my alma mater. Um, my last thing I'm watching for there on day six is um the women's hunter-free. You know, I just want to see is Simone Manual Sharp, you know, because again, she's one of those swimmers who uh is at the level, I mean, she's always sort of been this way, right? She's never like putting up that crazy fast time a month, two months out, but she always seems to show up when it's really an important time. Um and it's obviously gonna be a crucial piece. You talk about all those relays for the US, um having Simone um at her, you know, 52.0 level around there or better is gonna be the linchpin for them to contend in relays. They need that. Um, so I'm gonna be watching for that. Um all right, we're getting to the end of the meet here. Day seven, Eric.
SPEAKER_02Yes, day seven. Um are we gonna see a 48 on a dressle that hunter fly? I mean, are we gonna if he's again, if he's on, he's got the 50 that morning, he's got a really light morning, he's just gonna be able to stop right out the gate. Um are we gonna see that? Are we gonna see what we know he's capable of here at the at the end of his meat? Now we we saw with NCAAs, now that's a much tighter situation when he's going for that 103 and he really just kind of ran out of gas and energy um for that. But again, that's a much more condensed calendar. But I want I would love to see him bust off a world record here uh and then anybody behind him. Like, are we are we all going to be ecstatic when Michael Andrew makes the team in the hunter fly with one kick butterfly?
SPEAKER_03Yes.
SPEAKER_02I can't imagine how many of the old I can't imagine how many of the old school people their head would explode that somebody like this would sully the US Olympic team. Um I'm I'm hoping for that opportunity to troll with with a with a situation like that. Um and that's just my honorable mention. The women's 200 back. I this is this final is is really going to be a fantastic fight. If Baker's foot can handle the entire week, or if she's gonna pick and choose and just then come back and focus on this two back and not maybe do the two iron like Jill talked about with all the different changes in angles and walls and stuff like that. Um you know, are we gonna see the young guns in that two back just duke it out? Like there's gonna be so much fighting. We could just see, we could just see a world record just because there's so much at stake and even just being able to try to make this team. Um I I don't see it being I don't see it being one of those slow finals where they just kind of happen to to to just be the fastest of everybody. That's definitely one of those races where it's gonna be um tight and it's gonna be super fast.
SPEAKER_00Yep. Um, yeah, I mean, I I uh I don't have a lot to add on those. I'm sort of watching um for the the same thing. I will say, you know, here's where we're sort of going to what what's gonna come into the picture here late in the meet is how many events is Dretsel? I don't think it's a matter of will he make the team, right? Everybody like um you can bet your house on Caleb Dressel making the team, barring a lightning strike, you know, and maybe even then. I think if he got struck by lightning, And he might still be able to make it in 100 for you.
SPEAKER_02Still get six of the hundred events.
SPEAKER_00That's right. You know, so uh, but how many events will he make it? And you know, what does his program look like for the Olympics? How, you know, is he he's entered in six events. I don't expect him to swim out of those six events, the 200 fly. Um, I'd be very surprised. But um legitimately, he could be there in five events and he could be on three relays. Um, and then he's got, you know, he's got the setup for the eight events, the mythical um Michael Phelps eight event uh Olympic program. So um be really interested to see that come into focus. Um, what else you got, Joel?
SPEAKER_04I this is the day I'm really interested in watching for a lot of those swims. And I think um one of the things I'm also interested in, just as I was talking about with the NCAAs, um it's just the adrenaline meat that that is, you know, where and it's such a compact meat and all these relays and all your teammates around you. And the thing is with the young swimmers versus older swimmers, I think that's where this day really comes into play, not so much where the meat is too big for them, but managing that adrenaline, managing your sleep, managing your rest and how you recover between all these races, a guy like Trussell knows how to do all this. And not to make it a USRPT versus a big yardage thing, I think his training background over the years, uh he's gonna be fine for whatever he wants to do. And even if the lightning strikes him, he's like, Yeah, flesh wound, I can I can manage too. No worries. Um, but but it is it's the management of the adrenaline and and how the how to go after these meats and and know when to kind of put everything all the chips on the table, kind of thing. Like you said with Simone, the same thing where like, you know, first couple swims, like, yeah, okay, we just we just need to get this far. And I remember again, another one of my failings as a coach was I only went to Olympic trials in 2000. And I just remember getting there and thinking, obviously, this meat isn't for us. You know, I had some really 400 swimmers, you know. This that was back when the the the shark skin suit was just coming out, and every kid was fighting at the table and they had all these holes in them. Meanwhile, the Stamford and the and the elite swimmers are over there, they already had their suits fitted for them a long time ago. They've already done a bunch of races in them a long time ago. And we're over here in the warm-up pool fighting over a suit, and then you get in and you're just trying to get in and make one more swim. And these people have already thought, like, I know how to make one more swim for sure. I want to think how I'm gonna save it for that last swim. And that that's I think this is the day again where that experience comes. And again, it's not like a psychological thing, it's literally just managing your your adrenaline over that that span because it can be a long meet.
SPEAKER_00Hey, Joel, was was 2000 the year that the Stanford swimmers had those vitamin patches, or is that 2004?
SPEAKER_04Am I it is amazing how how uh balco and a lot of those places apparently didn't sell to Olympic athletes, they they only sold to Barry Bonds. I guess he he bought the truck, so there's no such thing.
SPEAKER_00Oh, right, no association with Balco and swimming.
SPEAKER_04No, no, they don't sell to the to amateur athletes, right?
SPEAKER_00Right. Matt Matt Matt Beyondi, not a client of Balco. Um guys, look it up. Um I oh Google that Google Matt Beyondi Balco. I'm sorry.
SPEAKER_04I know I just uh talk Schubert too, are we? Oh no.
SPEAKER_00Um all right, let's um let's get to the end here. We got the last day, um, and I have almost no idea what to say. You know, there's so little uh being contended on the last day, but Eric, um bring us home.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I'm I'm sorry, just because guys, there's we were picking a top event in honorable legend, and you ended up in third, but it doesn't make you less of a person.
SPEAKER_00Oh man.
SPEAKER_02You know, but my my top racist that day is is the women's 50, you know, and Joe had spoken about it with with the women's hundred. Um this is gonna be a really interesting one because it it really is it's it's won or lost, you know, in that first 15. And we've gone into it a bit in depth when we talked about Abby White's start and just her ability to transition up to the surface. If she's able to do that, um you know, she's gonna find her way on the team in the 50. Um, but there's yeah, there's just so much between freelance and semis and finals to even to know for sure who's gonna be in that 50 that we have a good idea, but it it's really intriguing, intriguing to me to see who all is gonna be there, who all is gonna be there that's uh on the younger side. And when you talk about energy management, Joel, and mental and emotional management management, are they in that final? Are they gonna have anything left in the tank? Are they gonna be just fried neurologically? Um, you know, physically they're gonna be able to handle that, but just mentally gonna be, are they gonna be exhausted? And then the men's fifty are you know, Adrian's gonna be in the top eight? Are we gonna see Anthony Urban sneaking into the top eight? Like he's you know, he's looking at having three fifties this this week, and it's just gonna be a matter of progressively getting more race experience again because he's been out, you know, traveling the world and training and doing some racing, but but not a whole lot. Um is Dressel going to hit everything exactly the way he wants? And are we going to see are we gonna see a 20-point, you know, are we gonna see anything like nothing that he does surprises me anymore other than how much faster than maybe it was that he he did that I would have guessed. So uh yeah, there's and there's there's several guys that are right there on that cusp that that haven't had their moment yet on Olympic team that uh have an opportunity to sneak in. It's just a matter of who has the the best race in that moment. It's gonna be it's so funny that there's only three races on that day, and there's two of them that are just so nerve-wracking in terms of what that's saying. So yeah.
SPEAKER_00I mean, I said that would come back to men's distance, and so I, you know, I do think again, while you're watching this, just look for those glimmers of hope, US swimming fans. And um I will say also, uh, when it comes to the Olympics, I I have something to admit, and that is that I'm uh I'm an Olympics bigamist. Okay. Um I care for the US team, and then I also love my Danish team. So I'm watching that 50 freestyle because defending Olympic champion from Denmark, Penilla Bloom, I want to see, you know, are there Americans that can challenge her as she looks to defend that title? Um and thankfully, you know, for my wife's sake, I I limit my bigamy just to Olympic fandom. Um, Joel, you have anything to add for the end?
SPEAKER_04No, I I think again, like like you said, the the 50, um, I I always again I'm gonna come off as an it's funny, like in this room, I'm I'm I'm gonna be the negative one. I can't believe that is, but it's gonna be me probably. But again, we're we're married to the NCAA system. And yet it's like, I think we should have more 50 freestylers that are a lot, lot quicker than. I mean, that's that's what NCAAs is, 1500. Um, you know, we we should be better at this. And so uh I I think again, when you look at the mile versus the 50, it's like, well, we better be really good at one if we're not gonna be good at the mile. And uh right now it's it's kind of a wide open field internationally, you know, it's but not so much for the US in on some of these events.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I would throw in there um uh because I mentioned it on an earlier podcast, David Curtis. Um, you know, I said he would not make the Olympic team. So this is his chance to prove that I'm just a big hater. Um seated there with the with a 21-8, and uh he's certainly better uh traditionally on long course and has improved a lot in his short course swimming. Um, and that'd be a a high school boy um making hit in the 50 freestyle, which would be pretty crazy.
SPEAKER_04Um I think that's pretty the the interesting thing is I remember again back to like 98, 2000. Uh I think it was yeah, Dr. Sokolovis, who's with uh USA swimming at the time, he would he put out the list of like kind of the average age, your peaks for your different events. It's like, well, that was also before athletes were sticking around a lot longer. And so you you know, I think the ages are pushed up a lot more. We've seen that. But the interesting thing I think is is like you said, the 50 freestyle, when you get a younger guy trying to compete with 26, 28 year olds, you know, that's like going to the NBA, the same thing. Like you're the it's one thing to you know be in the high school or or national level, it's another thing when you're against LeBron. So the same thing with this, where you're like those younger swimmers like that were in the wave one, you know, it really looks interesting to see what they're able to do sprinting-wise like that, and also from their the training paradigm.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and having seen David Curtis in person, it's not as if like you make that NBA analogy, okay, but um, like you look at like a high school player going right to the NBA and doing well, like LeBron James. LeBron James had a man's body coming into the NBA.
SPEAKER_04No, I mean I mean, look at LeBron now. Look at I mean, look at that kind of you know, he's a tight end now, and of a sudden you're coming in, you're like, oh, but that's but seeing this again next to Nathan Adrian was like, dude, that's a middle linebacker. That's not Nathan Adrian.
SPEAKER_00David Curtis looks like a teenage boy. I mean, he's not he's not exceptionally tall, he's not exceptionally like built, he looks his age. Um, so it's really incredible how fast he can swim. And um yeah, I hope he proves me wrong. Um, all right, guys. I think this is uh this is I I'm just gonna say it's just the best uh podcast preview of the Olympic trials on the internet. Um I haven't seen any others. So, you know, I assume Swim Swam will try to put something else out there, but how can it match up to this level of analysis? Really? Um Thank you so much for for joining me. Thanks uh so much to everybody for listening, and uh, we'll talk to you again soon. Thanks, Chris.
SPEAKER_04Thank you.