S7 Ep 76 Predictions, Presumptions, Assumptions

In this episode of the Untangled Mind Podcast, Piper Harris explores a common but often unnoticed cognitive sequence: predictions, presumptions, and assumptions. Rather than treating these as personal flaws, this episode examines them as core functions of how the brain manages uncertainty.

Drawing from neuroscience and data-driven CBT, Piper breaks down how the brain uses prediction to reduce cognitive load, how presumptions harden into certainty, and how assumptions quietly replace curiosity and learning. The episode focuses on what happens when the mind prioritizes efficiency over understanding and how this can stall insight, integration, and change.

Listeners are guided to recognize when their thinking has moved ahead of evidence, how silence and certainty can feel protective while limiting growth, and what it looks like to reintroduce curiosity in a way that works with the brain rather than against it.

This episode is part of the Bearing Reality: Thinking About Thinking series and is designed for those who want to understand how the mind organizes experience and how awareness can interrupt unhelpful patterns.

#untangledmindllc #premiercounseling #integrativeCBT #traumatherapist #anxietycounseling #EMDR #prolongedexposure #PTSD #GAD #therapythatworks #datadriven #Georgiacounselor

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SPEAKER_00 0:09

Welcome to the Untangled Mind Podcast. I'm your host, Hyper Harris, licensed professional counselor. This is a show for people who want to understand why their mind works the way it does, not just how to cope with it. Drawing from neuropsychology, neurophilosophy, and data-driven CBT, we look at how anxiety, trauma, and other life stressors shape perception, behavior, and choice, and what actually helps people change. I'm an integrative CBT therapist based in the Atlanta suburbs. Each episode is designed to teach you something concrete, how to recognize what's keeping you stuck, how to interrupt unhelpful patterns, and how to move forward with clarity and steadiness. On today's episode, I talk about how my exhaustion had me focus on just three words predictions, presumptions, and assumptions. Let's get to it. So I want to start with something very simple. Exhaustion. So that's what today's podcast is about. I am interrupting the podcast that I have been doing on a series of orientation. And frankly, um every Monday I write a newsletter and I do a podcast first thing in the morning. And it is 2:30 in the afternoon, and I am so tired I can't see straight. And so I didn't do my normal, uh, which is kind of hard for me. I usually stick, I'm actually very routinely individual, but I didn't do it today. And so I want to say I'm starting simple in the sense that I am absolutely exhausted. And what happened today is not only did I not do what I said I was going to do, like I usually do, but I had to take a nap. I literally could not keep my eyes open. My family and I have been in the middle of a family emergency. My husband and I are caretakers for um our aging parents. Um and you know, running a household and running a business and being a counselor and all of the things, I am wrecked. I am wrecked. So I had to lay down and take a nap. What was really interesting about this nap is that I immediately woke up and prior to the nap, I'll just kind of give you a little context. Prior to the nap, I was um preparing, excuse me, preparing for a uh new client who's coming in. So I was going through assessments and building a treatment plan, all of those things. But again, I was tired. So I woke up immediately from this nap, and the funniest thing happened, three words were running through my head: prediction, presumption, assumption. Now, again, there's not really any story to why these words were in my head. It's kind of like we talk about earworms where we get a song stuck in our head. Well, I had these words stuck in my head for whatever reason. So there was no emotion attached at first for when these words were just kind of running through my mind. They were just words. They were just totally fully formed words. And so what was really interesting was that what caught my attention wasn't that the words appeared, it's which words appeared and in that order, prediction, presumption, assumption. What I think is is that these three words describe a very real, very common brain process and not just in therapy. I believe that this applies to all of us, and it really does apply to the orientation series that I've been talking to you all about. So today, what I want to do is I want to slow down the process and look at what the brain's actually doing when this happens, when we wake up with words. Um, or you know, we wake up with something and it just feels super convincing. And how do we recognize when our brain has quietly moved out of curiosity into certainty? Um, because again, it was just so odd. Took a nap, I passed out, drool and all, and um, you know, prediction, presumption, assumptions popping in my head. So, first I want to make a grounding point. Um, the brain's primary job is not truth, it's not insight, and it's not even accuracy. The primary job of the brain is efficiency and safety. And so, from a neuroscience perspective, the brain is a prediction machine. So that's what's called predictive coding. Our brain does something called predictive coding. So our brain is constantly generating models of the world based on past experiences and then updating or not updating those. So those models are based on some new information. So you can see how when our brain's primary job is efficiency and safety, and it also focuses on prediction, that it can cause some real issues, especially if we've got a history of anxiety or trauma. So this is actually metabolically efficient, right? Our brain is using less fuel doing this, it reduces our so-called uncertainty, and it keeps cognitive load manageable. But here's the problem: this efficiency has a trade-off, and prediction favors speed over exploration. We all fall prey to that. So let's start with my first word that popped into my mind predictions. So if we think about predictions, prediction is the brain doing its job, right? So when something feels um emotionally charged, maybe relationally risky, um, or it's on identity level importance, the brain immediately asks, like, what's what usually happens here? What are the safest next moves, or what do I need to avoid? That's very typical. So neurobiologically, this involves rapid rapid pattern matching. What that means is the hippocampus pulls from our stored experiences. Remember, the hippocampus is kind of like our storage room, our filing room. The amygdala flags potential threats. Remember, that's our fight or flight mechanism. The prefrontal cortex tries to anticipate outcomes before anything else actually unfolds. So this all happens before conscious reflection. It really does. So when we predict reactions, our own or someone else's, we actually believe we're being thoughtful. But prediction is not curiosity, it's actually uncertainty reduction. That's what prediction is. It is not, I think too often we walk through life thinking that because this thought process happened in this nanosecond that we're actually being thoughtful, but this is not correct. Prediction is not curiosity and it's not being thoughtful, it's actually our brain reducing uncertainty. And so once the brain predicts something, it begins to prepare the body accordingly. The problem happens when prediction is mistaken for knowledge. And so that's where we move into word number two presumptions. So my idea here is presumption is prediction that has been emotionally endorsed. Presumption is the prediction that's been emotionally endorsed. So this is where the brain stops saying this might happen, and it starts saying this will happen. So if you can imagine if your predictive brain is also paired with um a fearful response, right, it's endorsing it, it is therefore saying, I predict this might happen to this will happen. So it could sound something like she won't be able to handle this, um, this conversation will be too destabilizing, or I already know how this ends. So, from the brain's perspective, this is a shift away from those more um exploratory networks, I guess you could say, toward kind of this idea of this control-oriented process. So curiosity requires pre-frontal engagement, okay? That smart part of our brain, right? Presumption reduces that demand. So once the brain presumes, it's no longer needs new data. Okay. Now, this is what I want to say. I am not a neuroscient. This is how scientists, this is how I understand it. And this was what I was trying to understand. Why did I wake up with these words? I'll get to that, but I just wanted to go through the words first. So, again, once the brain presumes something, it no longer needs new data. And here's something important presumption often feels responsible. So, ideas like, well, they feel calm or they feel measured or they feel like wisdom. But neurology, neurologically, those are shortcuts. And I've talked about shortcuts in the brain before, heuristics. So, what they do is they protect us from discomfort of uncertainty by removing the need to ask, what is this? Okay. So then comes the third word, assumptions. Assumptions are presumptions. Say this three times fast. Assumptions are presumptions that no longer feel like choices, they operate silently. So at this stage, the brain has basically closed that loop. There's no question pending, there's no hypothesis to test. We simply just kind of proceed through. So assumptions don't announce themselves as thoughts. They show up as like tone, um, pacing, omission, silence. They just kind of show up. So, from a neuroscience standpoint, this is the brain choosing cognitive coherence over learning. So the system feels super regulated, but only because the ambiguity has been eliminated. Not because there's any understanding that's increased. Does that make sense? The brain, you see how we go prediction, presumption, assumption, how fast we're not actually thinking. And that's the key distinction. The system might feel regulated, but all it did, all the brain did, is it eliminated any ambiguity or process of learning. So this is where it matters. And this is what it was so odd for me to wake up from this nap. Many people believe that naming or clarity or insights is what overwhelms the brain. But that's not what research shows. What overwhelms the brain is unstructured information. So that might be emotion without explanation, experiences without a frame framework, effects without causes. So what often happens is the hippocampus is responsible for contextualizing memory. Remember our filing room. But when experiences aren't organized into coherent narrative or model, they remain fragmented. Does that make sense? So when experiences aren't organized effectively, efficiently, and appropriately in the hippocampus through you know coherent narratives or models. So that might be CBT, that might be cognitive processing therapy, see where I'm going there, they remain fragmented in the brain. So that fragmented information is too expensive to hold. It's metabolically too expensive for the brain to hold. So here's the thing clarity reduces the load on the brain, naming organizes our experiences, and learning. Um the the process of learning creates regulation. Silence, on the other hand, leaves the brain doing extra work. Okay, so why am I talking about my nap, predictions, presumptions, assumptions? Take it in context, and it took me a minute, like, why did I wake up with these words in my head? Consider what I was doing prior to my nap. I was putting together somebody's assessment and treatment plan. Now, what I found myself thinking about as I was going through assessments is first of all, I can see the pain. This is awful. Second of all, I know some of the history with this individual. And I knew that this individual had been in some intensive programs and was told a certain um uh PTSD uh diagnosis. But they weren't told other things. And this person actually said, could it be this? Could it be borderline? What I want to say is I fell asleep with frustrations and I hadn't my brain hadn't actualized what I was feeling. So when I say when people use silence, it actually leaves the brain doing extra work. What I want to say is that clinicians and clients alike, we all do this. This is just part of what the brain does. But I suppose what I'm saying is that when clinicians don't provide clarity through really speaking to a diagnosis that nobody really wants to talk about, borderline or if it's schizoeffective or any of those really painful diagnoses. I see a lot of clinicians that don't want to do the label because they think labeling someone is harmful. And but what they do though is they they haven't reduced load for the client. Just because you're applying a diagnosis that informs treatment doesn't mean that you're dehumanizing the human. You're naming this so you can organize their experiences so then they can create understanding, then therefore they can learn regulation. But that's why people often say, you know, um clients will often say, like, I always felt like something was off, but I couldn't explain it. Their nervous system knew their cognition just hadn't mapped it. And and when the brain lacks a map, it fills the gaps and it's often really harshly. And that shows up like self-blame, catastrophic explanations, um, rigid beliefs, risky behaviors. And it's not because the person is weak, but it's because the brain is trying to make sense of something incoherent, some incoherent data. So, what I'm saying is I fell asleep with a frustration, prediction, presumption, assumption came straight into my brain. Because unfortunately, I could see the clinicians that worked with this therapy, this client before, and they felt prey to this process. And therefore, this person is floundering around for years. So, how do we work with the brain instead of just going along with it? And I think that's what's key to this. I'm not trying to bash clinicians at all. What I'm trying to say is we have got to be aware of the brain's processes to take shortcuts because the brain thinks it knows everything. But we we have to recognize that if we fall prey to some of these shortcuts, we are literally leaving these clients in silence and they have to make sense of their own environment. So then they go into that same system and then they are stuck in even more in pain than when they were before they came and saw you. So this is where awareness matters, and this is guess what I've been talking about this whole year so far, four weeks in. The goal isn't stop predicting. We can't do that. The brain automatically does the predictive coding. That's just how the brain works. The goal is to notice when prediction hasn't replaced or has replaced, excuse me, questioning, the inquiry. Does that make sense? When our brain predicts something, so I'm just guesstimating on clinicians, this individual might have said, the predictive part of the brain says, this client has a complex trauma history, but yes, definitely borderline. But I'm not gonna tell them borderline because if I tell them borderline that they're going to, they're not gonna be able to do this, or I'm not gonna be able to do this, or then I'm gonna think people are gonna think that I'm a bad clinician. But notice that prediction didn't even ask questions, it replaced that inquiry. So here are a few markers. If you hear yourself saying something like, I already know, or this is what the industry has told me, hold on a second, or this is what the world has told me, hold on a second. If you feel unusually calm about not asking something important, or if you're moving quickly past discomfort without data, you're in the middle of prediction. Those are the signs that the data the brain has shifted from curiosity to control. And another marker is speed, right? Assumptions move fast, curiosity slows down. I tell my clients all the time, I want you to be curious about the way you think. Because you're used to just running along. I talk about the train, you're running along on the train, and it's because that train is doing what it's been told to do. Go down the track, the track with predictions, presumptions, assumptions. And I'm saying slow down the train, curiosity slows that train. So if an answer arrives before the question has fully formed in your brain, that is absolutely a clue that you have fallen prey to predictions, presumptions, assumptions. 100%. And the antidote is not forcing truth or pushing insight prematurely, that's not at all. The antidote is reintroducing the uncertainty intentionally. And I know that sounds really counterintuitive, but it's neurologically based. It matters. Curiosity reactivates the prefrontal cortex, the question reopens learning loops, dialogue invites new data. Simple questions could do this work, like, okay, what am I predicting right now? Um, what am I presuming without checking? What information would actually help here? These questions don't destabilize the nervous system. In fact, they engage it. And this applies to everyone. Clients do this, clinicians do this, partners do this, parents do this. Anytime something feels high stakes, the brain wants certainty. But certainty achieved through assumption is so brittle, so fragile, and so unstable. It feels stable, but believe me, it's not. But understanding, on the other hand, it's flexible and it's adaptable. And that's why I think these three words stayed with me, not because they're necessarily profound, but because they were describing something incredibly common, you know, predictions, presumptions, assumptions. They they they're what fill the space when curiosity feels risky. And I think what I'm uh posing through this short podcast is that the quiet work for all of us is to learn to notice when the brain has chosen efficiency over understanding and gently reopen the questioning process instead of just accepting the answer. I believe that I fell asleep one because I was exhausted, but I believe that this came to mind because I was frustrated. Because I see too often in my industry that clinicians predict reactions, we predict outcomes, we predict harm. Now that's part of what we need to do to keep ourselves safe, keep our clients safe. I understand that. But if we say something like this will stay destabilize them, if I name this, it will overwhelm them, then we're taking away autonomy from the human being that sought our help in the first place. If our predictions then harden really quickly, we're not even imagining possibilities anymore. We're deciding them for the client. So we're saying in our head, nope, they're not ready for it, they can't handle it, this is too much. But what does that say to the client? I'm broken. I already know how this ends, I know what they're gonna say. So the presumption, it really removes the curiosity from the room, from the conversation. There's no checks and balances, no one asks anyone. Every everybody kind of proceeds carefully around something invisible. And that's where it stops being neutral. The assumptions themselves, they don't announce themselves, they simply operate, and that's what I'm trying to say. We assume silence is safer, we assume clarity is dangerous, we assume that not naming something prevents harm. This is not true. And I think with my exhaustion and falling back to sleep and you know, um waking up with these three words in my mind, it came from a place of just pain for the individual because I could see the the pain in the data. I had a quick consult, so I knew some of the pain briefly. But I think I was frustrated because the clinicians gave this person a half story. And yet that client said, the new client said, I think this might be going on. And I did not shy away. I said, you know, based on some of the things you're saying, yeah, this sounds possible. This is borderline personality disorder, but let me do the the assessments and let's see what we're working at. I do this with every person. It doesn't mean I bring every person on because I don't pack the gear for everybody. For example, I had an individual a couple weeks ago came to me and uh maybe call it your clinical spidey senses, but I just felt like okay, there's something going on that I'm missing. And I said, why don't I send you a couple assessments just to see what I can see in the data? And it proved kind of my spidey sense that this individual had some pretty major psychoses going on. I I don't work in the psychoses, I don't work in schizophrenia, I don't work in schizophrenia effective because that's not what I've trained to do. It's not because I don't think the person is not deserving of the treatment. I just don't pack the gear, I don't have the tools. But I did not shy away from saying to this individual, this is what I'm seeing. I believe this is what's going on with you. But I've done the research and I found some individuals that I think are highly qualified to work with you. And you know what he said on the phone? He said, Thank you for being honest with me. I knew something was wrong. I knew I was hearing voices. We had a great conversation, and he just kept saying, Thank you for telling me. I thought I was just like in my head. And he just needed someone to name it. Give him some clarity, give him something. I am not giving him a label to dehumanize him, I am giving him something to be able to say, okay, I've got a framework now. What? As clinicians, if we keep falling prey to predictions, presumptions, assumptions, we are going to continue to hurt individuals. And for those of you listening, your brain does this too. If you fall prey to predictions, presumptions, assumptions based on maybe attachment traumas, maybe you have a significant trauma history, maybe you've been really hurt in uh relationships, maybe you've been really hurt in business, whatever it may be. Your brain is trying to be efficient, it's trying to protect you, but it doesn't mean it's correct. So thanks for uh listening to me today. I hope you enjoyed this. I hope you all get some more rest than I am, and I will talk with you next time.

SPEAKER_01 24:24

That brings us to the end of this episode. Thanks so much for joining me. I hope you learned some tools that can equip you to untinkle your mind and untinkle your life. If you're curious about working with me for your anxiety or trauma, head on over to my website at Uncompany.