July 31, 2026 -- A Pivotal Main Event Hand

Clayton Fletcher (@claytoncomic) shares a hand from Day Two of the Main Event that deserves its own episode!

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Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:04

Welcome to the Tournament Poker Edge Podcast, brought to you by Tournament PokerEdge.com, the only podcast dedicated exclusively to poker tournament strategy. Now here's your host, Clayton Fletcher.

SPEAKER_00 0:17

Hello once again, everybody, and welcome to the Tournament Poker Edge Podcast, sponsored by Jaka Coaching, where you can get a seven-day free trial and 20% off your membership just by using the promo code TPE. My name is Clayton Fletcher, and I am your host here in sunny, breezy Eagle Beach, Aruba. Happy as always to be bringing you yet another episode of the world's longest running poker strategy podcast. Yes, I am in Aruba. It's beautiful here. I have been to Aruba before. I used to work on uh a couple of different cruise ships that would stop here, but I never got to spend the night. When you work on a ship, it's like you arrive early in the morning and you have to leave late in the afternoon to continue on to your next port. So being able to spend an extended period of time here in this beautiful island nation is a lot of fun. I'm I'm having great shows with Aaron McGuire and Brian Scott McFadden and Ray Ellen, who they actually call Aruba Ray, by the way, and for good reason, he's kind of like the mayor of this whole country. Uh great guy, and really funny comedians all around. The shows have been great. And afterwards, we've actually been going out to some of the local casinos and playing a little poker. Poker in Aruba is interesting. There's only really two casino hotels that still have poker. The one we went to the other night was the Hilton. It's kind of a sterile atmosphere, like very bright lighting. It almost feels like you're at a doctor's office or something. It's not like a dark, swanky vibe or anything like that, but the game was good. We played 2-5, no limit, hold'em, and I felt like most of the players were locals, you know, people who live here on the island, they seem to know each other and all that. The dealers were friendly and very proficient at dealing. Overall, I had a good experience. I think I lost like $35, but you know, it was really fun and good to see that poker is alive and well in a place like this. Now I want to thank you guys for all of your feedback on last week's episode, which featured Caitlin Comeski, who is getting to be a rising star in the game after an incredible showing at this summer's World Series of Poker. A lot of the feedback I got was about some of Caitlin's opinions. And on this subject, I just want to say one thing that makes Caitlyn such a strong content creator and such an excellent comedian is that she has strong opinions. And guys, like this is a very important quality for a performing artist, especially a comedian, to have because when we go up on stage, the audience is expecting to hear our take on something, our thoughts, our feelings, our opinions, what we make of something. And that's what Caitlin is used to doing, and that's what she did here on the podcast. And I really appreciate her coming on and telling us all about it. I have utmost respect for Caitlin Kumeski as a person, as a comedian, as a poker player, as a human being. You know, she's great and she's welcome back anytime. And she is facing some backlash for various opinions that she's been sharing recently on Twitter. But you know what? She's used to it. It's like she said last week on the episode. It's like you're helping my algorithm. As long as you're interacting with me, even if you're saying I'm fat and ugly and you hate me, that helps. So there's kind of no such thing in the modern world as bad publicity. I don't think she's mad about it one bit. Now, a lot of my friends are controversial and they stir up conversation, but to me, that's kind of what makes the world go round. So I'm really happy that Caitlin came on and I want to thank everybody that listened to that episode. And we actually recently uploaded the video version of that podcast episode to my YouTube channel at Clayton Comic on YouTube. So you can check it out there for free, and you can actually see us getting into it together. And guys, if you want to follow me on YouTube, that would really help a lot. Just subscribe to the YouTube channel, even if you know you're never going to watch the podcast on YouTube. It just helps a lot if we have more followers, subscribers, whatever on there. So it's youtube.com slash at Clayton Comic. And just hit subscribe. That would be such a big help. That's something you can do for free that would actually help out this podcast so much. And we really appreciate that type of support, of course. And you probably noticed that every podcast host in the world asks you to like, comment, subscribe, interact. And there is a reason for that, guys. It's really what drives the success or failure of a podcast like this one. So if you guys can do that for us, it means a lot, and we really greatly appreciate it more than you'll ever know. Now, I want to talk about what's going on at Jocka Coaching. For me, I think a lot of coaching sites are a bit overwhelming. Like you log in, and then there's seven million videos for you to choose from, and there's no real direction. And what Faraz has done with his site, he kind of gives you a roadmap of which videos you should watch first, which ones you should watch next, and what you should do on the site based on what your goals are. And so what I'm working on now is called the MTT Crash Course, which is just 11 or 12 videos, each one less than half an hour long. You watch all these videos, and they kind of cover 80 or 90 percent of what you're going to need when you play tournament poker. So for me, it's a great refresher, a good way to stay sharp in between tournaments, and listening to Faraz talk about when he uses the solver and when he goes against the GTO strategy and why and how he does that. I think it's something that really helps me a lot as I prepare for my next foray into tournament poker, which will most likely be online on Twitch. Clayton Comic on Twitch as well. It really is exciting. Some of the uh big tournaments that are coming up online that I'm looking forward to playing, and I'll hopefully be able to stream and get some of you guys involved and maybe do some more giveaways like we did over the summer. Anyway, getting back to Jocka coaching, I really like the layout of the site. They have different categories, different levels of videos, so that you're not watching a video that you're not ready to watch or that you're not going to be bored from watching a video that's well below your level. I just think it's really well done and I think you guys will enjoy it. You can try it out for seven days free and also save 20% off your membership. Just go to this link, jocka.poker slash TPE. Jocka.poker slash TPE. All right, I want to go back and look again at a hand that we talked about two weeks ago. And this time I'm going to use a solver. This is going to be a hand from the World Series of Poker main event that I played in uh earlier this month. And we'll just use a solver today and check the uh line that I took and see what the solver thinks about my decisions, whether what I'm doing is solver approved or sub-optimal. So again, this is from the main event. The level is 400, 800 with an 800 big blind ante. And from early position, a player named Antoine Winfield opens to 2000. So two and a half big blinds there. And the action folds now to me in the low jack. And I've got the ace of diamonds jack of hearts, and I go for a small three bet to 5,500. And the action folds back to Mr. Winfield, who calls. So I'm going to be in position hero with the ace jack offsuit. And let's just check the solver. Should we be three betting with this hand at all? Is this actually a fold? Like what's going on? The solver does raise 28% of the time with ace jack offsuit from the low jack facing a second position open. We also can call the solver calls 43% of the time, and the other 29% were actually folding. So, you know, maybe this is a hand that I seldom, if ever, throw away facing a raise, but maybe I should start figuring out when I should be folding. I would fold this hand maybe if the original razor had been extremely tight, very conservative, not getting involved kind of player, like an old man coffee situation or something like that. But this guy, Antoine, was actually playing quite a few hands early on in day two of the main. So that's why I didn't really consider folding versus him. Anyway, we end up seeing a flop heads up. I'm in position with the ace of diamonds, Jack of Hearts, 13k in the middle, and the flop comes eight of diamonds, eight of hearts, tray of spades. And he checked to me. I remember commenting two weeks ago on the podcast that some of you will be surprised that this is not a 100% range bet in my shoes because those two eights on the board will actually make the solver want to check it back some of the time. Not a lot, but some of the time. So let's look at these numbers here. I ended up C betting, I bet 4K into 13k, so just about one third of the pot. And the solver mostly bets 83% of the time, we're supposed to bet about nine big blinds, so about 7,000 instead of the 4,000. So I went for the small bet size on the paired board, but it turns out the solver wants to go bigger, more like half the pot in this spot. And then we're supposed to bet my size only 8% of the time. So it's solver approved, but not the preferred, most common play from an optimization standpoint. And the other 9% or so, we're supposed to check it back. So as I mentioned, there are some checkbacks on this paired board. Now, if instead of two eights out there, it might have been two queens or two kings or something. I don't think there will be any checkbacks. In that spot, you're going to have a full range bet. But it's those middle cards, like a five or an eight or seven cards like that, those are the ones that the solver wants to find some checkbacks on. Anyway, I bet 4K and got called. So now with 21k in the middle, the turn comes the ace of spades. So now I've got a pair of aces with a jack kicker, and my opponent checked. I decided to check behind, and the solver likes it. The solver actually checks behind 40% of the time with ace jack offsuit and bets various sizes. The rest, it's a mixed strategy of when we do bet, it's all different sizes all across the board. So I checked it back, and now the river comes the king of clubs, and all of a sudden my opponent leads out for 7,000, and I couldn't find the fold button. I was worried, you know, what's going on. The check call, check call, lead situation did have me scared, but I think Ace Jack is a little too strong to throw it away. And I called and I did lose to Ace King. So this player that I thought had been so active early on in day two may have just been getting hit with the deck. But let's see if the solver ever finds a fold with Ace Jack here. No, we never ever fold Ace Jack in this situation. We call 88% of the time and actually raise different sizes the rest of the time, but we never can find the fold. I didn't really consider raising, that seems silly. In practice, even though it may well be correct some of the time, in theory. So, guys, check out Jocka Coaching. I think you'll really enjoy it. Learn from the greats how to optimize your poker strategy and get started now at jocka.poker slash TPE. All right, I want to do another hand, one that I didn't cover, also from the World Series main event, day two. A few weeks ago, we covered a bunch of hands I played on day two, kind of rapid fire. I wanted to get a bunch of hands out there so that you guys would really get a feel for how the day went. But there was one hand that I left out on purpose because I kind of wanted to give it a little bit more attention today rather than just touch on it briefly in an episode when I'm going through a lot of different hands. So I wanted to highlight this hand here on the podcast. It came from semi-late on day two. The blinds were 600, 1200 with a 1200 big blind ante. I had about 50,000. It was a little less than an hour before the dinner break on day two. This is the table where I had Lucky Chewy, two to my right. I had Scott Ball, but he had busted by now. But earlier on, he was on my left, a few spots to my left. And also there was an annoying guy that had replaced Scott Ball, uh, kind of talking too much about the strip clubs he'd visited in Greece. And the only reason that came up is because there was a Greek player at our table, a great player, by the way. His name is Ioannis Angelou Kontes, and he's one of the top players in Greece. 4.5 million lifetime earnings, including seven first place titles and 13 WSOP final tables. So he's a very good player, and he's going to be the main villain in this hand. So Lucky Chewy is in the big blind, uh, a newer player at my table on my right folds, and now I'm in second position with two black nines. I've got 50k, which is just over 40 big blinds, and I decided to raise to 2500, so just one chip over the minimum. And the older gentlemanly amateur player, two to my left, called, as did the weird guy that kept talking about Greek strip clubs, called, and now on the button is Ionis Angelou Kontis, and he three bets. Now his playing style throughout the day had been extremely aggressive. He and Andrew Lichtenberger had been going back and forth all day trying to establish dominance at this table. There was just a lot of raising and reaising pre-flop between the two of them. And now here he is on the button. He sees a raise and two calls, and he makes it 12,000 to go. And the action folds now to me. I'm the original razor with pocket nines, and I think that shoving is absolutely defensible in this situation. There's a good chance that Iannis is making a move here, going for the squeeze play. He's on the button, he sees all this, you know, potentially dead money in the middle. And if he gets through me, he can probably get through everybody. And I've got just over 40 big blinds, and I think that shoving this stack against this opponent facing this squeeze is probably plus EV, maybe even solver approved, uh, something that we can do. I decided to call because 40 big blinds in the main event is pretty different from 40 big blinds in a different tournament. So I'm really valuing my tournament life here, and that's causing me to play a bit more passively. I think calling's okay. I think shoving's okay. I don't think folding is okay, and I don't think that three betting to some other amount makes a lot of sense either. I mean, this guy's already put in almost a quarter of my stack. So, you know, what are we gonna do? Put in half my stack, and it just doesn't make sense. We're not gonna do that. So don't fold and don't three bet small, but I think shoving or calling are both fine. I decided to call, and the other two players got out of the way. So now I'm going to be heads up against Andrew Lucantis, who is in position and he has me well covered with over 200,000 chips in his stack. And so now I call and the pot contains 34,000 chips, and I've only got about 38,000 behind. So the flop comes 10 of hearts, seven of hearts, six of diamonds. So 10, 7, 6 with two hearts, hero with the nine of clubs, nine of spades, and I decided to check to the pre-flop three better, and he checks behind. So I thought that was good news. Like he most likely had like an ace king, ace queen type of hand. The most strong overpair type hands would probably want to protect on this very wet board. 10, 7, 6 with two hearts. I don't think he's gonna want to be giving away too many free cards when he really has something here. So I kind of read this as most likely two overcards, maybe like an ace five of clubs that's gonna give up because he missed everything, something like that. So when he checks behind, there's still 34k in the middle, and now the turn comes the king of diamonds. So our board is now 10 of hearts, seven of hearts, six of diamonds, king of diamonds. So two hearts and two diamonds. We've got two black nines, and I go for a check again, and now my opponent bets 7,500 into the pot of 34,000. So very small bet there. Less than one quarter of the pot, but you don't want to read too much into that because so much of my stack is already in the middle at this point. It doesn't take that much for him to set up a decent shove on the river. So I didn't want to read too much into the fact that he's now betting on the turn. But I do know that that king is a much better card for villain's range than it is for mine. So I have to take that into consideration and think that if he had sort of given up with like a, I don't know, let's say like an ace jack suited type of hand on the button. Now when that king comes off, he might see that as an opportunity because he can more credibly rep that king than I can. And now that I've checked, it sort of opens the door for him to go ahead and bet it. Basically, this guy had been so bluffy and so aggressive and so kind of trying to bully the table that I just wasn't ready to fold on the turn when he bet so small and gave me such a great price with my pair of nines. Not to mention, guys, I have a gut shot, and probably any of the two remaining nines would also be at least partial outs for me as well. So I really didn't want to fold just yet, especially not for this price, but I'm really hoping that I either make a straight or something on the river, or that he'll give up and check behind and not put me to the test. So I called, and at that point, there's 49,000 in the middle, and I only have 31k in my stack, and the river comes the tray of clubs for a final board of 10 of hearts, seven of hearts, six of diamonds, king of diamonds, tray of clubs. I end up with just one pair, nines, and I check once more, and villain shoves almost right away, and I had a very tough decision to make for my tournament life at this stage of the tournament. I'd already made, if you listened two weeks ago, I'd already made a few pretty big lay downs at this table, including Pocket Kings on like a seven high board, which is wild if you think about it. But yeah, I I thought about it and I was noticing that my opponent seemed to be trying to look relaxed, and I didn't really buy it. So I trusted my read. It wasn't easy. I tanked for probably two and a half minutes, which for me is a very, very long time. I rarely take more than 30 seconds to make a decision in a live tournament. And uh he had Ace Queen. So this was a big pot that kind of catapulted my stack into above average territory, and it really felt good just to know that I still have the ability to make a big call with not a great big hand for my tournament life, even in the main event, given all of the bad things that have happened in recent years to me in the main event. So this was a big fist pump moment for me. Perhaps you listening to this are thinking, well, of course you have to call with nines, Clayton. You block the nuts, this guy bluffs a lot. But when you're sitting there in the main event and you really don't want to go home, when you're just about to make dinner break of day two, it's the last thing on your mind is like, what if I just call and this guy shows me Ace King? I'm gonna feel like an idiot, and I'm gonna have another year until I can play the main event again. Those thoughts start going through your head, and I tried to block them out and just make the best decision I could, given the information that I had in the moment, and I did. I called and it worked out beautifully for me. And that'll do it for this episode. Hope you guys enjoyed it. Don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel, Clayton Comic on YouTube, and for everyone here at Tournament Poker Edge, with thanks as always to our generous sponsor, jocka.poker slash TV. I'm Clayton Fletcher. Thank you so much for listening.

SPEAKER_01 23:52

Hold up, hold on, and baby.