Oil Surge, Gold Pullback & Small Caps | Market This Month (April 2026)

🎉 Episode 4 of The Market This Month is live - and we’re navigating a volatile but opportunity-rich environment as Q2 2026 unfolds.

Powered by the Canadian Securities Exchange in partnership with Stockhouse, host Anna Serin is joined by Bruce Campbell of StoneCastle Investment Management to break down the latest trends shaping junior and small-cap markets.

💡 Spotlight topic: Geopolitics driving volatility - and resilience
Market swings tied to Middle East tensions sparked a sharp risk-off move - but just as quickly, markets rebounded, reinforcing underlying strength and investor confidence in the current cycle.

📊 Also in this episode:
• Commodities divergence: Oil surging while metals pull back
• Energy opportunity: Strength moving from large caps down to juniors
• Canada vs. U.S.: Canadian small- and mid-caps taking the lead
• Capital formation: Strong, often oversubscribed financings across sectors
• Market momentum: New CSE listings across mining and technology
• Seasonality watch: Spring correction creating potential summer upside

💬 “There’s tons of opportunity for investors—both in energy and materials—as these trends continue to play out.” — Bruce Campbell

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#CapitalMarkets #SmallCaps #MarketUpdate #Commodities #EnergyStocks #MiningStocks #PublicMarkets #CSE

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

The Canadian Securities Exchange presents your go-to source for trends in junior and small cap markets. Each month, join host Anna Stern, the financial expert Bruce Campbell in partnership with Stalker.

SPEAKER_00 0:13

Welcome to the market this month. I'm Anna Stern, Director of Listings Development with the Canadian Securities Exchange, and today we're taking a closer look at what's been driving markets over the past few weeks, particularly through the lens of Canadian and junior capital markets. It's been a period marked by volatility, largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We saw a sharp reaction across global markets with a risk-off sentiment taking hold. But notably, that's more appeared to be somewhat overdone to the downside. What's been just as interesting is how quickly markets have rebounded, reinforcing the resilience we're continuing to see in the current environment. From a commodities perspective, we're seeing some divergence. Oil has been moving higher, supported by ongoing uncertainty, while metals have pulled back. For Canadian markets, where resources play such a significant role, this creates a more nuanced backdrop, particularly for junior issuers navigating capital raising and investor attention across sectors. What's particularly notable is how Canada is performing relative to the US right now. We're seeing Canadian markets leading with strength coming from small and mid-cap companies. That's an important signal for the junior space, where access to capital and investor engagement are often the first to feel the shifts in sentiment. And despite the broader uncertainty, financing on the CSE are continuing. Capital is still being deployed even against a backdrop of geopolitical risk, which speaks to the underlying confidence, especially in high-quality growth stories. Over the past few weeks alone, we've seen activities such as Quebec Innovative Materials Corp. They had a private placement targeting up to 5 million, further reinforcing that the market remains open for companies with strong narratives. We're also continuing to see new companies come to market on the CSE, which is another strong indicator of momentum in the space. Over the past month, we've welcomed several new listings at the CSE, including Quantum Core Limited, Allied Strategic Resources Corp., Elysian Mineral Exploration Corp, ICG Silver and Gold Limited, Rockbridge Resources, and Rise Nano Optics. It's a mix of resource and technology-focused companies reflecting the diversity of the growth pipeline and continued interest in accessing public capital. So today we're going to unpack what all of this means, where the opportunities are emerging, and how investors are positioning, and what it signals for the months ahead.

SPEAKER_01 3:11

Hey Anna, how are you doing?

SPEAKER_00 3:12

I'm good. We're starting our conversation in April of 2026. You know, it's never a dull moment in the markets for us these days. You know, I think the one thing obviously we want to start off with is just talking about the volatility we've seen in the market due to what's happening in the Middle East. Do you want to maybe touch on what you're seeing there?

SPEAKER_01 3:32

Yeah, I mean, there's been a lot of volatility. It seems like it's the Middle East, but it also seems like it's Twitter or X, I guess, is as as all the kids call it now. Um yeah, I mean, there's been so much volatility. Clearly, you know, the news that broke kind of the beginning of March, end of February, and uh, you know, investors don't like uncertainty, and that's exactly what we saw. So, you know, immediately we saw markets down, we saw most of the commodities up with the exception of oil. And I mean, that was the you know, the big mover. And and now that seems to all be getting reversed. This is, you know, we're in the middle of April right now when we're recording this, and and it seems like everything is completely reversed on on where they have has been or have been, uh, with the exception of oil.

SPEAKER_00 4:17

Yeah, absolutely. And so um, you know, we're seeing that shift in commodities. Let's touch on that. So oil is up and metals are down. Um, what are you seeing there? And also uh, what does that signal for you?

SPEAKER_01 4:31

Yeah, since the, you know, since all the news started flowing out of the Middle East, I mean, we immediately saw energy shoot up, which makes sense. The, you know, with the straight being closed. And I mean, that's been the news, you know, really day by day and hour by hour of what's happening. That's about 20% of the world's oil production. And so you would have expected the price of oil to move up and move up quite dramatically, but it's actually moved up more than what you would have expected. If that was 20%, and I mean there was a little bit, there was some damage that was done to some other facilities outside of Iran that uh, you know, maybe would be another, you know, five or or so percent. You know, you would have expected oil to be kind of in the mid to high 70s, and instead it's kind of in the 90 to 100 range. So it's kind of overshot a little bit here, probably. That being said, I mean, we still don't have any clarified resolution, and so that'll take time to to get that worked out and then work through the system. But I think we're probably gonna end up with higher oil for a while. And then on the other side of that, you know, we've talked on the show so much in the last year about the materials, you know, specifically gold, silver, copper, and all of those started to started to drop. And I mean, since since everything happened in March, we've seen you know, oils up, and then we've seen gold and silver uh have have dropped. They're still up year to date, which is interesting, and they're still up over the last 12 months, but they've pulled back a little bit here for sure.

SPEAKER_00 6:05

And traditionally, when we see these big shifts within the commodities, what kind of shifts do you expect to see or anticipate to see, uh, especially in the Canadian junior side, both for oil and gas and for and for precious metals and metals in general or resources, excuse me?

SPEAKER_01 6:21

Yeah, I mean, it's tons of and tons of opportunity for investors, is kind of the way we look at it. So if you look at it from the energy side of things, how you know typically the market works and plays out is that you know, when you see a move like that, immediately people are trying to get exposure to those companies and they start large cap and then they work their way down. And we've seen that. We've seen you know the large cap companies start to move and really have a good move. A lot of the mid-cap companies have, and now we're just starting to see some of the you know that trickle down to the to the smaller companies where people are doing the numbers, working it out and figuring out, okay, well, look at the cash flow numbers on some of these energy companies. And then on the flip side of that, when you look at um we look at the gold, silver, and copper markets, there's you know, again, huge opportunity there in that if you look at gold, for instance, you know, we topped out at around$5,500 an ounce. And when we're doing the show today, it's around$4,800. So it's pulled back, it's certainly pulled back a fair bit. But a lot of the stocks have pulled back or did pull back a lot more than that, the than the gold price, which is what you would expect given that they have you know strong, um, strong leverage to the gold price. But as we go through earnings, if if the the gold price sticks where it's at, we're gonna see cash flow numbers on some of these companies really start to rocket up. And that'll be you know an opportunity then for the mid-tier, the large tier to then go and look for acquisitions because we know it takes so long to build a mine now that they're better off to go and and try to buy something, especially if their stocks are higher than what the the small caps are. So that probably compresses that spread as well as we see more MA activity. So we think that there could be you know a lot of opportunities both in energy and in materials going forward here.

SPEAKER_00 8:17

That's pretty exciting. That's exactly what I wanted to hear, Bruce. So thank you. Okay, let's talk about uh Canada versus US markets. I mean, this is obviously something we almost touch on um every month, and and there's always you know various reasons uh that they play against each other or with each other. Uh, but Canada seems to be leading the way right now with small and mid-cap. So tell us about that.

SPEAKER_01 8:40

Yeah, exactly. Canada has been leading the way. And if you go, you know, you go back over time, there tends to be these long cycles that happened, and you tend to see, you know, Canada outperformed for a decade, and then the US outperformed for a decade. And I mean, it's not obviously a straight decade, it'll over you know, it'll be a little bit longer, a little bit shorter than that, depending on what's happening, you know, economically and and you know, kind of around the world. And we've really seen Canada underperforming probably for the last, you know, probably closer to 14 years here now, the US. And it looks like that started to shift. If you look at the numbers in the last year, you know, Canada really has outperformed the US market. Uh, and that doesn't matter the market cap that you look at. If that's large cap, the TSX, if it's you know going down into uh the mid-cap or the small cap or you know, kind of anything in between there versus the US at the same size bracket. And we think that that probably is going to continue. These trends, when they tend to move, tend to go for a while. And if you look at exactly why that is, you know, Canada has been so strong with commodities, but we're also starting to see other opportunities in Canada that are really taking front and and center as far as investors go. So when we see the commodities do well, the banks do well. And we're seeing the banks have had a fantastic year. And and you know, you could argue that they're multiples or higher, but but they're really not too extreme. And then we're also seeing lots of you know, industrial companies that are kind of mid-tier, smaller, that are doing really well both from an earnings standpoint, but also from a market standpoint, because now investors are looking beyond the US. They're looking for other opportunities, and they look at Canada and think that there's valuation and that that it's uh relatively cheaper than what we're seeing in the US for sure. The one sector that you know continues to really dominate in the US is technology. And I don't think that's going to probably change anytime soon, just because there's you know real technology dollars spent in the US from a um venture capital standpoint, so that they incubate their companies and they build these companies a lot faster. And then, you know, they they tend to have world leaders in technology that that drives their market and continues. So we still still do see technology very strong in the US. Um, but there's lots of other opportunities in in Canada that are starting to emerge here.

SPEAKER_00 11:12

Yeah, I mean, you know, we've seen um some great financings done on our on our uh Canadian issuers through with U.S. capital that's coming through to them. We continue to see that. Um, and and actually let's let's dive into that. We'll talk about the strength in financings that we've been seeing. At the CSC, we have, I believe, around 730 issuers, let's say. Um and over the past 12 months, they've completed a hundred and uh sorry, a thousand and nine financings. That's just showing how active these issuers are at financing. Um, and a lot of those financings, which we've talked about over the past few months, they're oversubscribed. They're in really healthy amounts. A lot of them are from the US and global investment that are coming in. So we're seeing at the CSC anyway, we're seeing some really good numbers and good strength and and um you know, within the financing arena. Tell us what you're seeing.

SPEAKER_01 12:05

Yeah, exactly. You know, and you're looking at that data over the last 12 months, and you know, we we we don't have to go back much further than that, maybe 18 months ago now, and it wasn't that way at all. It was the opposite. Uh, if you certainly if you go back 24 months, like there was nothing being raised in you know any areas of the market, really, uh especially in any of the small, smaller companies. And now you're seeing that, and as you mentioned, what we're seeing is that you know, in financing Zerb announced there, there are a lot of cases are being upsized from where they were initially announced, which is good to see. It means there's more demand, and the companies are able to take more money, which ultimately gives them more optionality on what they're doing with their own business because now they have more money to spend in their business and on their business. And then um, you know, we're seeing we see it in multiple sectors as well. So we are really seeing it across the board. So you would expect clearly the resource companies to be doing well just based on the commodities and the opportunity, but we're seeing it in other areas as well. We're seeing you know, some sort of smaller technology, we're seeing um industrials, and and now you're also starting to see more new listings coming. So we're seeing that on the small, you know, JCP or CPC, um, initial public offering, those type of opportunities where a lot of those are now showing up, and they're you know, 10 or 15 or 20 million dollar financings that just didn't exist 12 months, 24 months ago. And these are trends that don't just immediately turn off. They tend to go for a while, and you know, they they they build and they contract. And I mean, we still seem to be at the building stage before, you know, we even get to a contraction. So this could go on for for quite some time yet.

SPEAKER_00 13:56

Yeah, I mean, we did a we did an interview recently with our our friend Brent Brent Gilchreist with uh with Dean Snight. And and you know, he made an interesting point there that this is really great for the market. Uh, what'll be really interesting now is to see what the companies do with that capital, right? So uh, you know, hopefully they deploy that capital in in really strategic uh ways and further their properties um and do more advancement and more programs. Um so really, really the rubber will hit the road when we see how people are uh deploying that capital as far as what's next for those for those in the junior markets uh in mining. Um Bruce, as we look into uh May, we're entering springtime. Uh any thoughts for our uh viewers to think about going into the into the next month?

SPEAKER_01 14:44

Well, I mean, there's a few things to think of in in sort of in our our eyes. One is that you know, we tend to see a weaker time just from a seasonality standpoint in the summer. And that makes sense based on you know a few different things. One is historically, when you look back at the calendar, everyone's aware of that. So they try to try to you know position around that. And then things tend to be a little bit slower throughout the summer. But the interesting thing is that you know, just like last year, we saw this sort of late winter, early spring correction. This time we saw it as a result of you know what's happened with Iran. And it we're you know, that's certainly not done yet, but it seems like the market, the big market reaction might be might be done. Clearly, if that escalates and gets to a place where it's you know in in the next level up, then that that won't matter to the market. It'll still go down. But let's assuming that it starts to you know calm down or just smolder, the markets probably do you know just forget about what's kind of happened in the past and move forward. And that because of that sell-off, might produce the opportunities that propel the market through the summer, like we saw last year. We didn't really see that sell in man go away. Uh, and we could potentially see the same opportunities here. If we see commodity prices sticking in there, then you know that's going to be kind of the double opportunity there, in that those prices are gonna be strong. And a lot of those companies that raise money could have really strong news flow as they're on their properties doing financing uh and doing then um development work on their on their properties. Uh, you could see you know lots of uh opportunities still in the in markets uh in the smaller cap as well.

SPEAKER_00 16:31

Yeah, absolutely. Okay, well, listen, um, I look forward to uh chatting with you again in May. Maybe we can get you to Vancouver and we can sit face to face. Um, and we'll continue to watch what's happening. I mean, there's just I feel like every month that's gone on this year, there's more and more global shifts that are affecting our Canadian market. So uh it'll be interesting to watch how things play out uh in the next few weeks. Um well, thank you again as always, Bruce, for joining me. I really appreciate it.

SPEAKER_01 16:59

Yeah, thanks for having me on. Never a dull moment.

SPEAKER_00 17:01

Never dull moment. We'll talk next month.