Three Houses, One Street, One Week: The Wilcox Drive Warning

🎥 Watch the video version: https://youtu.be/2odCe31K-aw
🎬 Loom raw: https://www.loom.com/share/34d95675bf074339b2dc06c1070644ab
📝 Full blog with data: https://sellersonlyagent.com/blog/wilcox-drive-santa-clarita-three-listings-race-to-bottom
🌐 SellersOnlyAgent.com
📲 Text SELL to 661-400-1720

Three houses on Wilcox Drive in Santa Clarita got listed within $20,000 of each other the same week. 82 price reductions hit the SCV basin in 7 days. 26 properties fell out of escrow. Connor MacIvor, 27-year Santa Clarita Realtor and former LAPD Motor Officer, breaks down the 90-day in-the-future estimate of value, the banking pricing method he learned doing Citibank foreclosure listings from 2007 to 2012, and why the seller who blinks first on Wilcox wins while the other two lose $30,000 to $50,000.

If your agent cannot show you the data trend behind your list price, you are getting sold a story. This episode tells you exactly what to ask any Santa Clarita listing agent before you sign the agreement.

Plus: the $17,000 flat fee Santa Clarita listing breakdown at https://sellersonlyagent.com.

🔗 Full episode resources:
YouTube: https://youtu.be/2odCe31K-aw
Loom: https://www.loom.com/share/34d95675bf074339b2dc06c1070644ab
Blog with sources: https://sellersonlyagent.com/blog/wilcox-drive-santa-clarita-three-listings-race-to-bottom
Coming Soon listings: https://santaclaritacomingsoon.com
Daily Download archive: https://connorwithhonor.com

Connor MacIvor | SYNC Brokerage | CA DRE #01238257 | 661-400-1720

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Good everybody. I hope everybody's fantastic. We're gonna have a short Santa Clarita real estate update. After you watch this show, you're gonna be you're gonna be poised and ready to know exactly what's happening in all venues in real estate here in Santa Clarita. So I've talked about before on the show, whenever you have a contagious seller thing happening, a seller, a contagious seller structure, and we see this happening. So one of your neighbors lists, then another one says, Oh my god, we should have listed, and then they go list, and then a third or fourth on Wilcox out here in Santa Clara, three listings, pop, pop, pop, that exactly what happened. And then what happens in that particular market? If there's a high strong buyer drive, no sweat, everybody's gonna get what they want. But if the buyer drive is lacking because of issues in the Middle East or because of the economy, or because of interest rates, yeah, it could be a race. It could be a race to who's willing to take less sooner than later. And something to watch. So we'll keep you posted on that. So this is the daily download. We have 68 new listings that have hit the Santa Clara Valley in the last seven days. 17 more are staged in the coming soon category. If you haven't seen these listings, ask your agent. I don't represent buyers, I've been representing sellers for the past several years. And I did 21 years with both buyers and sellers. But if you have your agent reach out to them and say you want to see the coming soon listings, there might be something in that particular venue that fits your criteria. And then the deal is, is you just want to do your investigations early. And then when the property opens up so you can go see it, then you go see the property. If you like it, you're already done. All you need to do now is after you've absorbed what it looks like inside, you've smelled the smells and tasted the carpet or however you do it. Actually, after that, then you make your offer accordingly. But you've already done your due diligence. What are the schools? Are there some kind of pet restriction or you know, whatever it happens to be? You're happy with it, you're ready to go. So that is uh those coming soon listings. If you don't have somebody, um SantaClarita coming soon.com, more than happy to to at least help send you those. And then of course you can contact an agent to represent you when you get there. All right, so these price changes, 82 price reductions in seven days. I watched seven-day cycles, so we had upward, so there's an adjustment there. We had 90 uh pop in here a few days ago as far as price reductions. And it's the same story. People have overpriced their property out of the gate. They have other properties in the neighborhood that have started to sell, they get a little worried, or there has been no activity at all for a long period of time, except for the general rush at the very beginning, but people have stopped showing the residences. So now they're concerned, so they do a price reduction. In addition, banking strategy back in the day, FYI, was typically a 30-day. They would look at the market at the very beginning. I was working with Citibank, they would have me price the properties that we were going to be put on the market as foreclosures, then I would list those properties and get them sold. They looked at a 90-day in the future estimation of value. That 90-day in the future estimation of value was done by a format called a broker price opinion. It wasn't just me in the mix. Now I had the listing, yes, as long as I stayed in their good graces, and there's a whole big story about good graces in the world. But as long as you stay in the good graces, you're the primary listing agent. But they will send out other agents, other competitors that are going to be also writing broker price opinions. And it's beautiful when these other agents go in and try to cut you off at the knees, and they'll make their broker price opinion look so much better than yours. But when you rely on the data, that's the important point. That's the point of that conversation. When you have agents come into your house, whether they do a 17K deal like I do or not, doesn't matter. But they go to your house and they're trying to win your listing. So one of them tells you that it's so much worth so much more than another agent, and you want to go with it because, well, you think it is too, because you've lived at this house and you love it. We'll put greed aside on the table for a second. But you know when you finally see it, don't take their word for it, just look at the data. That was the same thing that kept me employed with Citibank when I was selling off the foreclosures. It was amazing. The data always upheld itself. And I if whether the data was not in my best interest or in my interest, it was the facts. I put them out there just like today when I'm pricing real estate for sellers, I do the same thing. It's just the facts. And I line it up and I give you all the resources, all the data. There's nothing left out because God forbid I leave something out, even by mistake, and you discover it. I look like a dork. And there's no way you're gonna list with me. It's all there. I put all the data and I make sure it's all in there. I double, triple, and sometimes quadruple check if it's a complicated estimation of value. I put it all in there just so my clients see it. That's how you protect yourself. So if somebody's gonna come after me and say, Oh, yeah, Connor, oh, 850, I can get you 950 all day long. Let me see. Show me the data. So show me how the market's trending. If we're gonna base this, your opinion of the value of my property based on 90 days in the future, great. Then give me that document that shows that's how the market's trending. And in some cases, in the bank days, when we got to the bottom of 2011, beginning of 2012, the valuation started to change. Prior to that, if you look at the historical record, it was a decline from uh 2007 all the way to the end of 2011, the beginning of 2012. That was where that was the Santa Clarita Valley market. So that was the slide. It was down. So each estimation of value was less than the previous month for the same type of property based on a 90-day event cycle and 90 days in the future. You just extrapolate the numbers for the last several months and then do the math, and then you get that estimate, 90 day in the future estimate of value. But once we got to the bottom of 2011 or 2012, we started to increase. It wasn't a lot, it was flat for a little while, but then it starts to increase and property prices get more expensive. So then those foreclosures actually soarled at a higher value than the last one because there were more buyers in the market, more people were purchasing, and home prices were becoming more expensive. So you could extrapolate that into another 90-day estimate of value, and then boom, you had it. So then you gave that to the bank. Right now, this particular market, kind of flat, kind of you know, not exciting, taking a little while to sell things. We're not right now at the spring summer rush, though. So the Wilcox incident where you have three properties hitting the market kind of all at the same time, yeah, that's gonna pick up because more people are selling their houses and residences typically every year during spring and summer. And then we'll start to see that slow down as we get into fall and winter. If you have a carryover property that you've been trying to sell through your agents since the summer and you're falling into fall, you're probably gonna be getting beaten up pretty good when it comes to that sales price. Now, let's say in fall, just for grins and giggles, that the Fed drops, that they would drop a different rate than the mortgage rate. But let's say the 10-year bond market gets really strong, really solid, and the Fed does their adjustment, that 10-year bond market is really good, the economy gets better, the war's over, you know, gas is down to 30 cents a gallon, and it's just all rainbows and sunshine, cotton candy and unicorns all the way through, and interest rates drop into the fours. Yeah. I don't think the fall will then be able to do worse than the summer. I think it would be, you know, handshakes, hugs, and baby kissing all the way through the end of this year. But I don't really see that happening. But that's how you get properties priced. So if somebody comes in, case in point, and a long way around the road, the rosemary bush, if somebody tells you after I come in that your property is worth$100,000 more, then show you the trend. They should be able to take your neighborhood and say for the last three months, these particular properties sold and they slowly were increasing. So we take that percentage, let's say maybe 6% or 10%, then they slap that on your property and they say, okay, a 90-day estimate of value in the future is this particular amount. So this is the pricing strategy I've come up with. And then ask them to be able to validate the pricing strategy because if you have other listings that haven't sold for more than listing price, maybe it's just not indicative of that neighborhood to actually happen. So they're selling you a false bill of goods, and that's a problem for you as a seller. The longer your property sits on the market without selling, there's issues associated with that. Now, if your property is a teardown situation and you have the inability of having financing able to be put on the residence, which happens, sometimes it's a cash-only deal. Maybe you're caught up in one of those areas out here, and there's a couple, call me for those lists, but those areas don't allow for any kind of insurance on the residences for whatever reason. These are beautiful condo townhome type places, but it just doesn't allow for insurance, so they're sold uninsured, so they can't get an actual loan, a regular type of loan. There's probably some entity out there that can do it. But ultimately, most of those are cash. And when you're dealing with cash buyers, everybody wants a cash buyer, but the problem is cash buyers don't want to pay what a financing type buyer will end up paying. So that's just the way that breaks down. All right, 26 back on market properties in seven days. That's something else to look at because these are 26 listings that actually got into escrow. We had the seller agree, we had buyers happy, sellers happy. In some of those situations, there were multiple offers. In some of those situations, there were lots of negotiation, lots of heartache, lots of stress, lots of sleepless nights. Oh my gosh, are we going to get chosen? Are we not? And they go in and they make some decision or something happens, and yeah, they're not going to move forward. What happens in those situations typically isn't really a result of an issue with the property. I say this before. Usually it's something that's changed on the buyer's side. The buyer maybe made a decision that they don't want to move forward. Could be that simple. Could have nothing to do with the house. It could be the buyer says, oh my gosh, there's another house that just came on the market. Let's go get that one. Is that ethical? Yeah, it's kind of tough, right? That's a tough one because what ends up happening? Well, the seller was happy, everything was working out, and then somebody else listed their property and the buyer pulls out and goes to buy the other one. Yeah, it's an issue. The thing that I would explain to the buyer in that situation is, are you really sure you're going to get the other one? I mean, we'll do our best, but are you really sure you're going to get it? Because a bird in the hand is worth, well, you know what it's worth. Anyway, that would be the discussion I would have. It's not my place on an ethical standpoint unless there's some violation of law or violation of the ethical code of conduct for realtors for me to get involved in that. But ultimately, yeah, it's it's kind of dirty. It's it's a little dirty when you have a buyer that has wanted to buy something and then they're leaving just because nothing really wrong with your house, but they see something better on the market, that shiny object syndrome. And then the other question to ask is am I the right agent for you? And that's why I don't represent buyers anymore. One of the reasons, but then then they get into escrow on that one, and then oh, something else comes on. Then they get excited. And again, it's just it's a never-ending road. You have indecisiveness. Indecisiveness is good at a particular level, but when you're talking hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars, you're talking about real human sellers, a human buyer, and you talk about games being played on multiple fronts. And then, lovely, the buyer does this a couple times, then that third property is listed by the same property they did this to the first time. Good luck on where that offer is going to land. Because they canceled on them. More than likely, the conversation's gonna be had, they cancel it on another one, and then they go back to the through their buyer's agent for that particular seller's agent, and lo and behold, it's the same buyer. And then they're gonna talk karma because karma always bites hard. All right, 26 back on market properties. New hall, a tight pocket just north of the 14 freeway corridor where it turns a little bit. Three single family homes on Wilcox Drive listed same day, May 6th, all priced within$20,000 of each other right now. You can check that out on Zillow, these other syndication sites. Right at the$900,000,$1 million threshold, two additional new hall listings in the same sub-area hit within the same seven-day window. So we're starting to see more properties come on the market. If you want to get your house listed for sale, figure out what that is. Go to sellersonlyagent.com, sellersonlyagent.com. If you want to see my pricing strategy as far as commission, all you have to do is send me a text message to my cell, sell S E L L, to my cell C E L L, but send that word sell S E L L. I'll send you my my breakdown on how I list and how much that costs at 661 400 1720. I'm Connor with Honor. Thanks for watching. All right, we'll see you tomorrow. I gotta find out where I shut this off. Oh, where's the button? So far, I'm close. All right, so we'll talk to you tomorrow. Sellersonlyagent.com. Thanks for watching. Bye.