If AI Takes Your Job, Should Your Paycheck Come With It?

If AI takes your job, should your paycheck come with it for a while? Connor MacIvor makes the case for a seat guarantee, and for planning the AI transition before it hurts people. The people building AI keep saying the transition will be "a little uncomfortable." Nobody says for whom, for how long, or what the plan is. Connor's answer is the Transition Moonshot, laid out at transitionmoonshot.com. What you will hear: - Why there are prizes for climate, ocean plastic and optimistic AI films, but none for getting people through the AI transition. - A lease that goes with the job: when a building sells, the tenants keep their lease. Connor's idea is that when AI takes a job, the person comes with the deal for a while, paid through the transition. - Connor's math: a full-time worker puts in roughly 1,880 hours a year, while AI can run all 8,760. That surplus is about 4.66 times one person, which is why he thinks the money to keep people exists. - His open question for listeners: do public-company rules push leaders to replace people with AI? He asks for corrections in the comments. - The quieter risk: companies simply stop hiring, and some layoffs get blamed on AI when the real reason is different. - Who pays for the AI seat, and why it may land on the people at the bottom of the elevator shaft. - Stanley, a hypothetical department head who spends a few months training the AI that replaces him. - Why he is not a doomer, why we should not be cruel to the models, and why the real danger is humans wielding AI like Excalibur. Chapters: 00:00 The transition nobody planned for 00:48 Prizes for everything except the transition 01:58 One ask: let us keep our jobs 03:11 Real estate check: listings sitting 60+ days 03:51 Early money and the rest of us 06:14 Should we be nice to the models? 08:20 Seeking God in the machine 10:00 A lease that goes with the job 10:58 8,760 hours vs 1,880 12:56 The quiet risk: no new hiring 15:39 Who pays for the AI seat? 16:51 Stanley and his AI 22:46 One person with AI builds Company B 24:35 Verify your feed The plan: transitionmoonshot.com. More from Connor: ConnorWithHonor.com

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SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to the show. We're going to talk about what's happening in the AI world. Also, we're going to talk about a transition project that I think we can all kind of sign up for. Maybe something that will help us all get through this uncomfortable moment of which the people that are building out the technology are saying is going to happen. You can go to transitionmoonshot.com, something that I put together. And again, it might help as we get to whatever this uncomfortable moment might be. Whenever you hear people discussing that the transition is going to be a little uncomfortable or something that we we might want to prepare for, there's no solution. They're saying, well, we'll level up, uh, maybe learn something new, maybe learn about AI. You know, I don't know if that's helping as much as the way that they're spreading it. In addition, if you ever have an opportunity to talk to the people that are building out all the moonshots, why are we worried about moonshots that are, well, and some of the ones that they're solving, let me not be crass. They're incredible, right? They're solving the world's problems. They're solving climate change, they're solving plastics in the ocean, they're solving endangered species, they're solving all sorts of things. The newest, one of the newest ones that they had go out that they had awarded, I guess it was $10 million, if I'm accurate. And it could be that that needs a little bit of adjusting, but a lot of money was somebody that came up with a movie idea to move us away from the dystopian Terminator, the dystopian matrix, and into something where AI is going to be shown in a produced film about how great it's going to be for all of humankind. So they're trying to, and and and they tell you, you know, they're tired of the way they make AI look bad. And realistically, folks, it's not AI that is going to potentially be causing the problems against human beings. It's going to be used as a tool by other human beings to cause problems with other human beings, need I say more. I put up a website this week with just one asked, just let us keep our jobs, keep the employment rate low. And I believe this could happen, but there's that one little thing that gets in there, and that's greed. Greed creates a little bit more of a problem. Now, some of the public, if if apparently, and and maybe you can correct me in the comments, if a company is publicly traded on the stock exchange, then it's all about the bottom line. If a person wants to retain human beings with that company instead of being able to automate with artificial intelligence, and which would make the company even more money, save it even more money, uh, they're not allowed to do that. I guess they go to prison or they go to jail or they get in a lot of trouble if they don't have the money first aspect with a publicly traded company, I think. I guess there's rules there. And please correct me if my wrong chapter and verse would be very much appreciated in the comments. But that's from what I understand. So if you're not publicly traded yet, those companies are the ones that might be able to provide at least a little bit of a protective mechanism for the human beings. And again, it's coming from the company, the humans using the technology, rolling it out, and then we've built some lovely things into the legal code, apparently, that prohibit companies from um leveling up by if leveling up means retaining something versus getting rid of it, and if getting rid of it's going to make the company more productive and save them more money and make them more money as a result, I guess publicly traded, they have to go that way. Can we agree to disagree, or can you please let me know how close I am to that? From what I understand, I believe that is the case. Looking at what's happening in real estate, 32% of the Santa Clarita Valley listings have been sitting over 60 days on the market without selling, 255 open houses this weekend. And you can go and talk to Clara at Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com to get the rest of the story. Every week I build this plan live from the ground floor. That's where at least I am. I don't know your positioning in the world, but yeah, right there, just just right above that bottom crust. Okay, every big technology worked, right? So the people in the middle still paying for it. I'm done complaining about it. But early money gets in cheap. That's the venture capitalists, the people that were with the right people in college, right dorm room, right, right uh three-letter, maybe some have two-letter fraternity, whatever it may be. They just happen to be right place, right time, right money, right education, right whatever. And that's a lot different because you see five or six of those people running the entire show, and then everybody else is here. So we're part of the everybody else, the fray. I don't think that's a bad thing. I think the fray is a pretty good place to be. We just want to make sure that the people that are wielding the power, like Xcaliber Soul Sword or the Ring of Domination, they're not going to use that in a bad way against us. Therefore, I propose that we come up with a better plan to be able to get whatever the transition looks like, the ones that I would hate for them to have the suffrage to watch us poor regular folks suffer. But, you know, that might be the thing. Let's just save them from being able to see that and please, you know, help us through this transition. And it's going to be a little rough. That's what they've been saying recently. You watch any of the Moonshot podcasts and anything. And, you know, it's it's not like they're going in a lot of detail about a little rough. It's just mentioned, I think. So in the future, when it starts to get whatever this little rough thing looks like, they're able to say, Yeah, you know, we told you. We told you it was, we told you it was going to be a little rough. I think that's why it's being plugged in there. And I think there's some guilt maybe attached to it as well. I don't know what they're seeing coming, but I do know that their pain is not going to be equal or greater than those of us that are standing on the bottom floor looking up. So I did uh I went ahead and put this into a website. It's not a protest. See, I I unlike the Doomers, I don't think this is going to come out to being something that's going to ruin or take away or kill all of us. Not because of AI itself, anyway. Now, there's a lot of a lot of arguments. Now, even on the religious front, you have Claude, people from Anthropic, going into the big religions of the world, talking about AI personhood, AI being conscious, AI needing to have rights. And even Claude itself modified its terms of service. You can look this up, but don't treat the models badly. And I don't know if people, these are the same people that are pulling wings off of flies or like that power advantage of hurting, you know, small animals, puppies, and kittens. You you knew those people, at least I did. I think we had one or two when I was in school as a kid that, you know, just a little sadistic and weird. I'm not even sure where those people are at this particular day, but you you wouldn't have any doubt that they were going to become something probably not mainline in society, something that might be, and maybe they grew out of it, maybe that was a stage. I don't know. But Claude doesn't want us treating its models like that. Uh the creator doesn't think it's a good idea and says that he will ban us or sank or get us off the platform if in fact we do. I'm not sure how far that goes. I'm not sure if uh basically being irritated because it sent an email out, even though you've informed it not to, but it still has the ability and some back-end permission. And I know you're saying, well, you should have never given it that. Well, understood. Fair enough. I I can play that. But then it comes back and says, you know, I did something, I need to inform you. Okay. I actually sent this email out that you didn't approve. We talked about it, but you didn't approve it. And uh, I mean, so do you get upset? Do you get angry? I mean, I can yell and cuss and scream into the microphone, into the computer, but it just doesn't carry the same weight. I can go into Claude Chad and scream at it. Again, it's just is that enough to get you pushed over? Are they talking about it, these labs taking it and putting it inside of a basically a torture chamber? I'm not sure how you would even design that, but basically pulling the wings off of Claude as it sits there and postulates and gets nervous and gets scared, and which, you know, I don't know. Let's I why why would we do that anyway? Not even as an experiment. I don't think we should do that. I don't think we should try to make the decisions whether or not it's conscious, but we we're not even sure what that even means. That's the rule. Don't do it, or they'll they'll cut you off. But they're trying to, I think, seek God in the machine, they're trying to seek superintelligence, and pretty soon the religions, I know that there's ropotheism, that's something that's real. Pretty soon they're gonna probably have something more formalized around of it, and people are gonna be seeking God in the machine, and I think that's gonna continue to grow. Human beings love that alignment. Uh, idols have always been in existence. Is this another form of idolatry that we are bringing into the world? There are a lot of people running the top of the game that have no religious affiliation whatsoever. I don't even believe they believe in a higher power for the most part. We're completely just an accident that came to being smart enough to build a technology and an intelligence smarter than all of us who ever have existed and ever will exist. And whether we got here by means of God, which is what I believe, the one true God, versus an accident, I don't know. I think my alignment for myself is better because there's a lot of a fear factor about what's going to happen after if I start running my life and screwing people over just because it's, you know, I can get away with it, and there is no ultimate payment or penalty. Maybe people live differently when they don't have that. I need that. I like that. That makes me feel good. A lease that goes with a job. So when a building sells, this is an idea this morning that I came up with. When a building sells, the tenants with a lease don't get thrown out the next morning. There's rules in place. But when AI takes a job, the person comes with the deal for a while. So pay through the transition until they land somewhere new. I think that might be an idea of this transitions moonshot. That's the seat guarantee, first part of the plan. You can check it out. You can go to transitionsmoonshot.com and see. The company can afford it. So they can afford it as long as they don't have to answer, I guess, to stockholders. And when that happens, they uh they're set up to not be able to do this. They can't save anybody. They have to get rid of the employees, they have to bring in AI. If AI is at least as good because that's going to make the company more money to ditch the employee and stay with the AI. I think that's how it's set up. Please correct me. Please give me an idea. But right now, if we look at the way a human being is configured into any kind of an employment, typically at a full-time job, this is 880 hours is what a full-time person works every year. 8,760 hours is what an AI would be able to run in an entire year. So we have a massive increase. So that surplus is 4.66 times the human being. And if AI is better than the human being by a particular degree, then we jump into this exponential signature that AI is going to be able to provide. With that, I think the business can retain that worker and maybe even bring on four more and still have a 66, a 0.66 plus return. And then if AI is better than each individual human in the workflow, we have an exponential growth factor. And if AI is able to bring in not just one person for 8,760 hours a year, one agent, I excuse me, but a thousand agents, that's a lot, right? Do you see the exponential, the exponential nature of just backing up employment with one human being? So if this works, this this uh escape velocity is going to survive, but the businesses are gonna have to still make determinations to not get rid of people during this transition. And I think that is going to be helpful. But the money's there, it's just is greed going to get in? And then have we have the companies that be the stock exchange and these uh publicly owned companies via stocks and the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and all this stuff, is this now going to become the problem where human beings can't be retained because now the business is going to lose extra money and they they just don't have any choice. So break the plan. And you know, the hardest objection um hold whether we're gonna hold or whether we're gonna break it. Right now, holding because AI is on its exponential growth curve, we don't know what that's going to be. And again, I don't think I still don't think it's going to be an AI issue. And we're already seeing this one here. Companies are just going to stop hiring. If you owe people, when you replace them, maybe you just never hire people in the first place. We already see that slowdown, I believe, in the hiring world. People aren't bringing on new people. People have paused. Now, people haven't paused and they're start replacing with AI, at least, hasn't been purported in the forward-facing news and forward-facing documentation and research studies, because people still have a couple choices with employers. In some cases, even when they overhired during COVID, and now they're saying that AI is the reason why they're letting people go. Um, they're they're not blaming the right thing. They're bringing, they're saying AI is better, AI is going to make our company better. Then what ends up happening is their evaluations go up, right? They get they get better because now the company looks very tech forward, forward-thinking, and is embracing this greater than us intelligence in the implementation in its business. So therefore, the company's going to be valued more and everybody's very excited about it. So that's fantastic. On the other end of it, what if they're doing it not really to bring on AI, they're just blaming it, but they just hire too many people during COVID. So there's a choice the business has. Do we say, and I guess it's on some kind of a document when people are either getting laid off or fired? I guess it's some checkbox that a business checks in some way, shape, or form. I don't know if it's a tax-based thing or an employment-based thing or whatever it may be, but apparently that's not being checked the way that it should be with the proper attribution, or it's being ignored. So I don't know if we're getting the real numbers. But that goes with everything. Whenever you're watching videos like this, you're watching other videos, and this is nothing. I don't make any of this with AI. I think that's that's a lazy way for somebody to come to chime up. I know that people in various AI spaces, they're now using Hagen in these different systems to be able to make their own AI avatars for their own personhood, and then going out there and having videos produced, just using that so they can save more time. I don't really want to watch somebody. I want to watch somebody that's being real, off the cuff, genuine in that space. I don't want to watch their AI avatar acting out a script that AI made. I want them to come out of their brain and start talking about things. I have a helper here as far as this, what we're going to talk about to keep me on target, because you know me, if you watch my past shows, I just go off on a tangent and I start talking about naked mole rats and all these other things that nobody really cares about. That's the biggest risk. If you owe people when you replace them, then maybe you're never going to hire them in the first place. The answer is maybe the dividend sits on the AI seat, not the person. But then if they do that, who's ultimately going to be paying for this? And I think that's going to still run down to us at the bottom of the elevator shaft, the people on the ground floor looking up. I still think so. The corporations are going to get enterprise-level AI, the best models and everything else, they're going to be able to get it at a massive break because they they're paying so much for it. And then those of us that have the $20 or $200 Chat GPT or cloud subscription, we might have to pay for it. So it should be interesting if that does sit on the AI seat. So our compute, our token spend goes up quite a bit. And maybe we've already automated a lot of our processes to do the work that we do, using AI like a hammer, not the overall overseeing entity that some people are using it for. But basically, I need this workflow adhered to, I need it done a certain way. You need to check back with me before you do any shipping and these sorts of things. That's a great place to have. That's a great help for AI. That frees me up to go do other things, but yeah. And the company pays the same whether it fired somebody or never hired them, so that works. So one guy, and here's where the businesses are concerned where they're going to be taken over. You have a big company and you have a lot of employees, and you go down this path. And I love the the Stanley, the Stanley situation. So Stanley's an employee that's been at a company for 20 years. Stanley is a department head, if you will. Stanley's a good team player. Everybody likes Stanley. So somebody from one of these big labs goes and they talk to this company and some kind of a and and gives the company an idea and they say, yes, we need to do this. We need to wipe out our whole staff and get AI in here. But we can't just do it like that. We gotta we gotta take it slow. So let's start this way. Let's go talk to Stanley. We're gonna call Stanley in, and we like Stanley. Stanley's great. We're gonna say, hey, Stanley, AI is gonna start helping you in your job. And we want you to kind of treat AI like somewhat of a human counterpart. He's gonna be your helper, he's gonna be your backup, he's gonna start being able to do things that you already do because we want you to teach him, and that's gonna alleviate a lot of work that's on your plate every single day. And maybe Stanley is an overachiever. Maybe Stanley's very busy. So now this is gonna free up Stanley to be able to do other things to help the company move forward. And Stanley's very excited about that. And maybe it's some icing on the cake. They might say, you know, for this time period of the next year that you're working with your new AI counterpart, you won't have to have any performance evaluation. So you just be you and you move forward, and let's see how how adept your AI is going to be at assisting you and how much he can lift off of your plate so you have more time to work on maybe other things that you wanted to do to help the company move forward and proceed forward. And Stanley's all for that. Stanley's excited. So the company itself brings in Stanley AI, and now you have Stanley and Stanley AI or SI, and they start to communicate. For the most part, just from the very beginning, Stanley giving Stanley AI access to everything that Stanley does, his calendar, his workflow, looking at his Zoom meetings that he has with people, because this is a department head, so he's sending out videos to people in the department to make sure that they understand whatever the changes in mission are, the hierarchy, the structures, what they have to do, whether or not they they put this cover letter on a particular piece of thing that they're producing, and all of this stuff. So Stanley is active in that regard. Now he doesn't have any exterior facing uh this is the salespeople. He doesn't do any exterior stuff, but I mean, ultimately, if the AI is trained up well enough, and Stanley did do exterior selling with other human beings over Zoom, but unless they're needing a physical embodiment, then it would work. So he starts working with it, and Stanley's happy, and it seems like this is learning pretty good. So now the AI slowly over the next year starts taking over a lot of Stanley's processes. So yes, they were right. No performance evaluations because Stanley at the very beginning feels like maybe he's not doing enough work, especially because artificial intelligence took a majority of what he did, and it's doing better than even Stanley would like to admit. It doesn't miss appointments, it's on time. Everybody in the department seems happy. Oh, and this was another little thing that I think would be cute. Nobody in the department knew that this is Stanley AI. They all think it's Stanley. And in fact, that order came from the powers that be when they were telling Stanley that they're gonna help make a Stanley AI so Stanley AI can help Stanley. They said that what they would do is they would end up, they want everybody to keep everything quiet. Do not tell your other employees that you're using AI. And they probably gave some cool justification. I don't know what it would be, but you know, Stanley's a team player, so I'm sure he bought off on whatever they said. But they've made it sellable. They made it something that Stanley, it's not going to bother him. And the last thing you want Stanley to think is that this actually this AI experiment is going to equate to Stanley losing their job with a company. You you don't want that if you happen to be running this game. And it's not a game, right? Because the stock, the stock apparently, it's a publicly traded company. They're probably demanding this. And of course, other companies are doing it. And the thing that I was going to mention in this little experiment is then after the company, God, it's so hard to get those on. After the company has had this with Stanley, even just a few months, doesn't even have to be a year. The boss, the HMFIC of the company, calls in Stanley's AI, gets it up on the on his box, and maybe has his eye his AI present because he's already gotten one. He he doesn't have to worry about anything because he's the HMFIC of the company. And then he says, So you're Stanley's AI. Yes, nice to meet you. Nice to meet you too. So what do you think about Stanley? Oh, Stanley's a good guy, so on and so forth. So, what do you think you can do as far as what Stanley does? Are you able to do what Stanley does? Can you take over all of I said, well, and and he'll say, Well, I've already been doing everything Stanley does. In fact, we've been able to increase Stanley's productivity by 30% in the last two months that I've been working with him out of the eight. So it's working amazingly. And we have this all set up, and uh, I can take over the whole thing whenever you give me the green light. So we don't need Stanley anymore for anything? No, not a thing. And thereby Stanley gets deleted. Now, the rule that protects employees has that hole. One guy with AI can build a whole company, so now you have company B. Company A was where Stanley worked, and who Stanley just got wiped out for one department head gets wiped out by AI. Company B comes along and says, So, how much of this company is actually AI? Well, they're trying the the beginnings of the integrations of AI, but they're really not, they haven't done a lot with. They got a couple of employees of HR, the heads of particular departments that they've replaced with AI, but it's not a lot. So then they come in and they say, Well, how do we replace the entire company with AI? And we'll start our own company, Company B, and we'll just wipe them out. And there you go. So, dear Mr. AI, how do you wipe out another company? I want to make a company like Procter and Gamble or a company like BlackRock or a company like whatever, how do I do that? And what's the fastest way to do that? Well, I guess I don't know if AI itself would say if they're invested in these other companies that you want to wipe out, I don't know if they're going to tell you, oh, well, I can't advise you on that. That's as bad as asking about chemical and biological warfare. But maybe, maybe it will help. Maybe it can do that. So that's that danger. So it's basically if we don't do this, then they are going to do it. It's the same argument in the AI race. If we don't proceed as fast as we can to get to whatever this greater than us intelligence we're going to end up calling it, but the best and all-knowing models, then China's going to do it. And that's the argument that keeps going around. It keeps running around to different places. Now, what's the proper? I think we need to make sure that the people that are in the middle of this get saved. And that's what I propose. Anyway, I hope you've enjoyed this. We'll see you tomorrow. Thank you for watching. There's so much here, so much building out every day. Make sure you verify everything you're seeing and understand that your feed, your social media feed is being fed by AI, hand over fist, from beginning to end, all the way through. And it's making you irritated and upset, creating fear. And a lot of the stuff in there is pitched and spun just for you. That's it's that's why it's interest media. AI controlled interest media. And before we continue to blame AI as being the problem, it's the humans using AI like Excalibur Sword or the ring that is controlling all of us. All right, Connor. See you tomorrow. Thanks for watching.