In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, explores key trends in the Bronx commercial real estate market with Senior Director Jason Gold and Director Daniel Mahfar. According to Ariel’s Bronx 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report, investment sales in the borough declined 33% to $1.23 billion, while transactions held steady at 220.

Despite the overall slowdown, development sales surged 39% to $363.1 million across 59 transactions, fueled by the extension of 421a, the introduction of 485x, and the Bronx Metro-North Station Area Plan, which rezoned a 46-block area around four future stations. Development pricing rose 9% to $107/BSF and new building filings jumped 112% year-over-year in Q3 2024. 

Meanwhile, multifamily sales struggled, falling 59% to $457.9 million, even as transactions rose 10% to 90. High interest rates and the Bronx’s heavily regulated multifamily market contributed to the decline.

For more insights, check out Ariel’s Bronx 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel’s Brooklyn 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Brooklyn experts Partner Sean R. Kelly, Esq., and Director Stephen Vorvolakos. Overall, the dollar volume of investment sales in Brooklyn rose to $7.15 billion in 2024, a 37% increase compared to 2023, and transactions increased 5% to 890 year-over-year. 

Mr. Vorvolakos said nearly 50% of the dollar volume in Brooklyn last year was in the multifamily sector, which totaled $3.5 billion, a 59% increase from 2023. He noted that investors last year shied away from rent stabilized assets but were attracted to smaller tax-class protected multifamily properties that were fully free market. Also, brick and mortar retail came back in a big way with $641.5 million in sales including Empire State Realty Trust’s acquisition of the L3 Capital Commercial Portfolio in Williamsburg for $143 million, or $2,050/SF. Mr. Kelly noted that development sales increased 10% to $1.33 billion. After the new Housing Policy approved last year introduced the 485x tax abatement, developers returned to the market making bids and chasing assets. 

Finally, industrial increased 59% to $1.1 billion, as last mile logistics remained a driving force in that market. More information is available in Ariel’s Brooklyn 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, interviews Ariel’s Manhattan experts Michael Tortorici, Founding Partner; Chris Brodhead, Senior Director, and Howard Raber, Director, about the Manhattan market in 2024.

According to Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2024 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report, investment sales in Manhattan rose to $15.75 billion across 378 transactions, a 38% and 22% increase, respectively, compared to 2023. The office market rebounded, recording $5.1 billion in sales, a 74% year-over-year increase. Of the 55 office transactions, five were for Class A office buildings with the remainder for Class B and C properties. Multifamily sales rose 11% from 2023 to $3.44 billion in 2024, and transactions increased slightly to 182. Average pricing for multifamily properties dropped to $679/SF in 2024, while average cap rates increased from 5.24% to 6.23%. The report showed the most robust dollar and transaction volume since 2019. Development sales totaled $3.2 billion in 2024, a 121% increase from 2023, and transactions totaled 60, an 82% increase over this period. New City and State housing policies encouraged office to residential conversions, which accounted for approximately $2.3 billion of the development sales in 2024. Tourism surged in New York City in 2024, but Manhattan hotel sales fell 18% year-over-year to $1.47 billion last year. Finally, retail sales jumped 48% to $2.23 billion in 2024, and transaction volume rose 54% to 57 trades.

Join Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, as he delves into Ariel’s 2024 Multifamily Research Report with Founding Partner Victor Sozio and Senior Director of Capital Services Matt Swerdlow. 

In 2024, New York City’s multifamily market saw $8.91 billion in sales across 1,107 transactions, marking year-over-year increases of 14% in dollar volume and 4% in transactions. Rent-stabilized properties, which comprised 29% of the market, faced continued pressure due to high leverage, rising expenses and the lingering impact of HSTPA—leading some owners to consider 610 amendments for affordable housing conversions. Meanwhile, free market assets dominated in Manhattan and Brooklyn and attracted strong lender interest citywide. 

For deeper insights, explore Ariel’s research 2024 Multifamily Year In Review New York City. 

This podcast is a recording of the panel Ralph Bumbaca, Regional President – Metro New York for TD Bank, moderated at Ariel's February 5th Coffee & Cap Rates event hosted by TD Bank. 

The panel of affordable housing experts Eli S. Weiss, Principal of Joy Construction; Tell Metzger, SVP of Equity Investments at Community Preservation Corporation; and Brendan McBride, Senior Development Director at Gilbane Development Company shared their unique perspective on New York City’s commercial real estate market, with a particular focus on new housing policies and opportunities in the affordable multifamily sector.

Over 200 NYC real estate professionals attended the networking breakfast held at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. More information about the event is available here.

This podcast is a recording of the overview of the New York City investment sales market and key insights from Ariel Property Advisor’s newly released end-of-year research reports that Shimon Shkury, Ariel’s President and Founder, presented at the firm’s February 5th Coffee & Cap Rates event hosted by TD Bank. Over 200 NYC real estate professionals attended the networking breakfast held at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. More information about the event is available here.

In his latest podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, explored the challenges facing owners of rent stabilized buildings with guests Kenny Burgos, CEO of New York Apartment Association, a landlord group created by the merger of the Rent Stabilization Association (RSA) and Community Housing Improvement Program (CHIP), and Matt Engel, President of Langsam Property Services Corp. and one of the executive members of the New York Apartment Association. Topics included the impact of the 2019 HSTPA regulation on rent stabilized properties; the need for the government to incentivize private investment in rent stabilized buildings; rising expenses to operate buildings including insurance costs and unfunded mandates approved by elected officials; how tenants are affected negatively when living conditions deteriorate due to the lack of investment in properties; and the need for government and the private sector to collaborate to identify solutions.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Michael Tortorici, Founding Partner, and Sean R. Kelly, Esq. Partner, discuss highlights from the recently approved City of Yes for Housing Opportunity plan, which will add more than 80,000 new apartments over 15 years and invest $5 billion in infrastructure updates and housing. The partners explore how the new initiative will add housing in neighborhoods throughout New York City, increase the density of some development sites, promote office conversions, allow new development on large campuses and much more. A summary of the City of Yes is available here.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Dzbanek, Senior Director in Capital Markets, explore trends in the multifamily market and discuss Ariel’s Q3 2024 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City research report in this podcast.

Among the topics: there were $2.33 billion in multifamily sales in Q3 2024, a 17% decline from Q2 2024; of the total sales, $1.27 billion of the trades were in Manhattan below 96th Street; multifamily assets are offering investors a buying opportunity today because values have fallen across all segments; mortgage maturities are forcing sales, while sales based on strategic decisions are focused on equity reallocation; interest rates remain elevated, which is leaving owners reluctant to transact due to the uncertainty of achieving desired values; affordable housing remains desirable when it’s available; and more buyers, sellers and lenders are expected to return to the market in 2025.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, interviews Ariel’s Manhattan experts Michael Tortorici, Founding Partner; Chris Brodhead, Senior Director, and Howard Raber, Director, about what they’re seeing in the Manhattan market. They discuss how mortgage maturities are driving transactions, the increase in rent stabilized multifamily sales, condo development trends, office to residential conversions and housing policies including the City of Yes.

According to Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report, investment sales in Manhattan in 1H 2024 rose to $5.8 billion over 167 transactions, a 14% and 16% increase, respectively, compared to 2H 2023, Average pricing for multifamily properties dropped by 15% from $722/SF in 2023 to $611/SF in 1H 2024, while average cap rates increased from 5.24% to 6.19%. The report showed that development sales totaled $1.12 billion in 1H 2024, a 128% increase from 2H 2023, and transactions totaled 28, an 115% increase over this period. Office to residential conversions accounted for approximately 50% of the development dollar volume. 

This podcast is a recording of the panel Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, moderated at Ariel’s July 31st Coffee & Cap Rates event hosted by TD Bank.

Sharing their perspectives on the commercial real estate industry with an emphasis on the development market were panelists Ralph Bumbaca, NYC Market President - TD Bank; Christopher V. Albanese, President - Albanese Organization; and Jasper Wu, Vice President - ZD Jasper. Over 200 NYC real estate professionals attended this networking breakfast held at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt.

More information about the event is available here.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel’s Brooklyn 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Brooklyn experts Partner Sean R. Kelly, Esq., and Director Stephen Vorvolakos.
 
Overall, investment sales in Brooklyn rose to $3.36 billion in 1H 2024, a 43% increase compared to 2H 2023 and 18% increase compared to 1H 2023. In the multifamily market, Mr. Vorvolakos said owners are adjusting their pricing, which is creating opportunities for investors. The average cap rate rose to 6.48% in 1H 2024, the highest level since 2012, which can be attributed to elevated interest rates and uncertainty about new regulations. In the development market, Mr. Kelly said the new 485x tax incentive, the successor to 421a, is breathing new life back into the development market. Also, local developers are partnering with institutional capital and building farther into the borough.

More details about the Brooklyn market are available in the Brooklyn 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

This podcast is a recording of the overview of the New York City investment sales market and key findings from Ariel Property Advisor’s mid-year research reports that Shimon Shkury, Ariel’s President and Founder, presented at the firm’s July 31st Coffee & Cap Rates event hosted by TD Bank. Over 200 NYC real estate professionals attended the networking breakfast held at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. 

More information about the event is available here.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses the findings in Ariel’s Mid-Year Bronx report with Jason Gold, Senior Director, and Daniel Mahfar, Director.

Overall, the dollar volume of investment sales in the Bronx rose 13% to $445 million in 1H 2024 compared to 2H 2023, according to Ariel’s Bronx 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report. Transactions fell 10% to 90 for this period. Compared to 2H 2023, multifamily dollar volume increased by 38% in 1H 2024 from 2H 2023 for a total of $208.5 million. Transaction volume declined by three transactions to 36 over the same period. A total of 33 development site transactions were recorded in the first six months of 2024 totaling $166.4 million, which marked a 50% and 86% increase, respectively, compared to H2 2023.

The podcast participants noted that development is expected to increase in the Bronx because of the 485x tax abatement, which was part of the new housing policy, and a major rezoning in the Bronx, which is expected to produce new housing along 46 blocks surrounding the new Metro North stations in the Parkchester, Van Nest, and Morris Park neighborhoods. More information is available in the Bronx 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel’s latest multifamily research report with Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in Capital Markets. Mortgage maturities were one of the drivers in the multifamily market in the second quarter with dollar volume jumping 108% quarter-over-quarter to $2.83 billion and transactions rising 4% to 265. The future looks even better for the multifamily market as Treasuries have fallen below 4% and the market expects the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting in September. More information is available in Ariel’s research Q2 2024 Multifamily Quarter in Review: New York City.

On this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and Ben Schlegel, Director of Capital Services at Ariel, discuss financing options in today’s commercial real estate market. Schlegel notes that despite higher for longer interest rates, capital is available for deals that make sense financially including private money, CMBS loans and preferred equity and mezzanine debt.

On this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses the overall financial health of rent stabilized buildings in New York City with Jay Martin, Executive Director of the Community Housing Improvement Program (CHIP), a landlord advocacy group, and Matt Engel, President of Langsam Property Services Corp., an owner/operator, and Chairman of CHIP.

The topics include rising interest rates, post-Covid collections, property taxes, the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act (HSTPA) of 2019 and the state’s new housing policy, which tweaked HSTPA by slightly increasing Individual Apartment Improvement caps for rent stabilized apartments. A summary of the state’s new housing policy is available here.

In this roundtable discussion, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and his Partners Victor Sozio, Michael A. Tortorici and Sean R. Kelly unpack the new housing policy included in the New York State FY 2025 Budget.

Overall, the Ariel team sees the new initiatives as positive, especially for housing creation, but challenging for existing multifamily owners because some free market units will now be regulated and increased apartment improvement allowances for rent regulated units won’t be high enough to make a meaningful difference except possibly in the outer boroughs.

To read a summary of the state’s new housing policy, please click here.

Manhattan saw $11.1 billion in investment property sales in 2023, a 45% drop from 2022, and 280 transactions, a 33% year-over-year decline, according to Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2023 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and his guests Founding Partner Mike Tortorici and Director Howard, discuss the report’s findings and dig deeper into Manhattan’s multifamily, development and office markets. Average multifamily cap rates, for example, rose to 5.24% in 2023, while the average price per buildable square foot for development sites declined to $390. They also shared their optimism going into 2024 because of the strong fundamentals in the Manhattan market as indicated by the 50,000 BSF development site sale that Ariel recently arranged at 250 West 30th Street in Chelsea for $15,875,000.

Brooklyn finished 2023 with investment sales totaling $5.15 billion, a 46% decline from the record-breaking 2022, which saw dollar volume top $9.5 billion, according to Ariel Property Advisors’ Brooklyn 2023 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.
Transactions also fell 30% to 839 compared to 1,206 the year before. 

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and his guests Sean R. Kelly, Esq., Partner, and Stephen Vorvolakos, Director in Investment Sales, who specialize in investment property sales in Brooklyn, discuss the findings in the year-end report, the role interest rates played in the market last year and the need for lawmakers to pass legislation to encourage new development.

In 2023, the Bronx investment sales market saw $1.82 billion trade across 216 transactions, down 22% and 29% respectively, compared to 2022, according to Ariel Property Advisors’ Bronx 2023 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report. In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and his guests Jason M. Gold, Senior Director, and Daniel Mahfar, Director, who specialize in investment property sales in the Bronx, review the latest Bronx report. They also discuss what to expect in this submarket in 2024 and two recent Bronx transactions arranged by Ariel—the $26 million sale of a 237-unit high-rise multifamily building at 1500 Noble Avenue and the $14.7 million sale of a portfolio of six multifamily buildings with 203 units in Morris Heights.

At Ariel Property Advisors’ latest Coffee & Cap Rates event on February 7, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, moderated a panel of industry experts who shared their perspectives on the commercial real estate industry with an emphasis on the multifamily market: Margaret B. Grossman, Managing Partner & President - T30 Capital; Richard Roberts, Principal & Chief Business Development Officer - Red Stone Equity Partners; Jesse Terry, Chief Investment Officer - HUBB NYC. To watch the full event and download Ariel's research reports, please see https://arielpa.nyc/investor-relations/event/240207-coffee-and-cap-rates

At Ariel Property Advisors' latest Coffee & Cap Rates event, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, presented an overview of New York City's investment sales market in 2023 as well as key findings from the firm's recent end-of-year reports. To see his presentation and download Ariel's research reports, please see https://arielpa.nyc/investor-relations/event/240207-coffee-and-cap-rates

Ariel Property Advisors’ Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Dzbanek, Senior Director, Capital Markets, join Shimon Shkury, President and Founder, for this discussion on how high interest rates, regulations and bank failures contributed to the lackluster performance in the New York City multifamily market in 2023. According to Ariel Property Advisors’ Multifamily Year in Review New York City, the multifamily sector in New York City experienced a notable downturn, with total dollar volume of $7.4 billion spread across 1,036 transactions, a year-over-year drop of 52% and 35%, respectively. However, the anticipation of interest rate cuts and an influx of new capital is already leading to renewed activity in the new year.

Multifamily sales in New York City totaled $1.55 billion in Q3 2023, a 56% decline in dollar volume from Q2 2023, according to Ariel Property Advisors’ Q3 2023 Multifamily Quarter in Review. Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and his guests Ariel Founding Partner Victor Sozio, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director, Capital Markets, unpack the numbers and explain what to expect following the Supreme Court’s refusal to hear the petition brought by CHIP and RSA against NYC’s rent stabilization laws and how the FDIC’s sale of the Signature portfolio will affect the market.