The Reasoning Show

The Reasoning Show - Reasoning through the AI Revolution

The industry's leading AI podcast, explores how leaders think through AI, technology, and transformation. Each week founders, investors, and operators unpack the decisions behind the systems shaping modern business.

Hosts: Aaron Delp and Brian Gracely

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The Reasoning Show

Cloud and AI Predictions for 2026

December 31, 2025 • Massive Studios

0:00 | 1:02:06

Aaron and Brian make some bold predictions for the 2026 Cloud and AI markets, as well as reviewing the biggest issues going into 2026.

SHOW: 989

SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Cloudcast #989 Transcript

SHOW VIDEO: https://youtube.com/@TheCloudcastNET

CLOUD NEWS OF THE WEEK: http://bit.ly/cloudcast-cnotw

CHECK OUT OUR NEW PODCAST: "CLOUDCAST BASICS"

SHOW NOTES:

CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - NOV 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - OCT 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - SEPT 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - AUG 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - JUL 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - JUN 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - MAY 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - APR 2025 (show)
CLOUD & AI NEWS OF THE MONTH - MAR 2025 (show)

2026 CLOUD + AI PREDICTIONS (AND BIG ISSUES TO REVIEW)

OpenAI Revenues and Focus Areas
NVIDIA customer profitability
Companies moving to GOOG TPUs
Enterprise success beyond CoPilot/Gemini
Enterprise data+model trainability
Enterprise price hikes
Broadcom, AMD, Groq - alternative HW options
Data Center buildouts
Does AI spending shift
What is Agentic AI?
Long term spending + short term refocuses

PREDICTIONS:

At least one big AI IPO in 2026, and it won’t go well. (Aaron says Anthropic)
People will question whether Sam Altman is the right person to lead OpenAI
AI will be a central issue in the 2026 US elections, either about job losses or electricity prices
One major LPU/TPU/dedicated inference chip will break through in 2026
Azure will be the Number One Cloud… (Aaron has to keep it going)
We will start to see a shift in the Enterprise from big models in the sky (1+trillion parameters) to dedicated, purpose-built models of 500M or less in size for efficiency and security
Gemini will dominate the consumer/prosumer space, OpenAI will go through the trough of disillusionment
The industry will shift to a base/instruct and a reasoning split of models
AWS and Azure will double down on being a solutions provider instead of a primitive supplier for AI and infrast

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