Nancy Guthrie Case: Theory: Suspect Tried to Help Her?

Expert believes the abduction of Nancy Guthrie could be a cover-up to another crime.

- Did the suspect abduct Nancy Guthrie because he was trying to get her medical help? 
- Did she suffer a heart attack or was she injured during what may have started as a burglary gone wrong?

In this episode, Dr. Casey Jordan — criminologist, behavioral analyst, and host of the “Criminal Appeal with Dr. Casey Jordan” podcast — breaks down this latest theory  surrounding the case.

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Transcript

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What if the perpetrator never intended to abduct Nancy Guthrie? What if it was all a mistake? What if he was trying to render aid, get her some help after she was injured? What if she's having a heart attack and they're like, "Oh my god. Oh my god. This is not what we planned. We just came for the jewelry." And one of them does a good Samaritan thing and tries to give her mouthto-mouth resuscitation and save her and now it didn't work. Maybe you've broken her sternum, you know, giving her chest compressions because this happens a lot with older people. Your saliva might be on her mouth. Your DNA is all over her face. People are going to think this is a sex crime. Now, you just know that you need to take Nancy in whatever state she's in with you to minimize your chances of getting caught. I have a [snorts] very special guest to help break it all down. Dr. Casey Jordan, a criminologist and an investigative profiler. She's going to walk us through this theory. She's also going to answer a lot of questions that you guys have. Was this suspect working alone? Did he know Nancy? Are the ransom notes connected? Is he still alive? But the biggest bombshell in all of this, maybe he never intended to hurt Nancy. Maybe he was trying to help her. Before we dive into the case, I wanted to say thank you for being here. Please hit the like, hit the subscribe, and share this episode with a friend. Now, the case of missing Nancy Guthrie.[music] Okay, joining in the conversation, we have a really special guest to help break all this down. We have Dr. Casey Jordan, criminologist, investigative profiler, and you are the host of the Criminal Appeal with Dr. Casey Jordan podcast. Uh, I'm going to have all of the information in my show notes. Please subscribe. It's a great podcast. First off, thanks for being here. And I really have never gotten your take uh personally on the Guthrie case and who we're dealing with. Are we dealing with one person or more than one? Okay, so first of all, Matt, it's almost all conjecture. It doesn't matter how many of these um cases that you've seen on TV, you know, on criminal minds. The fact of the matter is we've never seen a case quite like this. All right? And I've interviewed hundreds of criminals, including people who have kidnapped for sexual captivity purposes, but never a kidnapper for ransom because that is really rare. And it's rare because it's really hard to get away with. So, you know, the fact that we we start talking about the Lindberg baby, which was more than a hundred years ago, as a comparison just proves how rare it is. So I can give you my my investigator profile uh as we talk and give you my thoughts but I want to always just give that disclaimer. I mean we are basing this on an n you know a population of case studies that is so tiny so small that it's not statistically valid and that is when the if you will the art you know there's a science to profiling but there's also an art that's based on if you will intuition that you build over 35 years of interviewing people victims families that's more um again I hate to use the word intuitive but it's not scient scientific and I can't prove it. It's just going to be my thoughts based on my 35 career 35 year career as a criminologist and also as a defense attorney who has interviewed a lot of criminals in the process of defending them. So So do you think that this person is still alive before we get into their profile? You know, I just did an interview last week and uh that podcaster, it was Brian Anton. It was the first time that he had ever heard theory. Yeah. I [laughter] we'll give him a shout out. Um you know when I said we don't even know if Porch Guy is still with us, right? Meaning he could be dead. He's like that never even occurred to me. Well, it occurred to me pretty quickly for a number of reasons. Um the the biggest reason is that if this is the work of more than one person, if Porch Guy is not acting alone, and I know this sounds ky, but I'm going to give you 50/50 odds and then I'm going to tell you why. If Porch guy is not acting alone, then he is probably the puppet, the disciple of the master, the puppeteer. Okay. We see master disciple duos all the time. And it is, let's go with the twoperson theory for a minute, Matt. It is a lot more difficult to pull this off and to kidnap somebody, whether it was for ransom or to cover up a crime. And we'll get there in a minute. It would certainly be a lot easier if you've got a partnership going on, somebody driving the bus and somebody taking directions and steering, okay, to get her out of the house. But again, I need to point out, everyone thinks she was carried out of the house because of her mobility issues, but she could walk. She could walk 150 ft. That's not a problem. So, this whole idea that it has to be two people because they would need to carry 150 lb person out of Let's back up here. I could carry a 150lb person out of a house if I if it meant getting away with a terrible crime and taking the evidence with me and my adrenaline was pumping. So don't rule out the possibility that it was one person. More likely I would say a little bit more than 50% it's two people. But if that's the case and we have a master disciple, a duo, think of the Cheshire home invasion from about 15 years ago in Connecticut. The interesting thing with that one, for those of you who are familiar with it, it was a home invasion where they they covered every single felony in the in the FBI's type one crimes. They did assault, they did rape, they arson, murder, everything. But in that particular home invasion, there was a 26y old and then there was a 43y old at the time. And you were thinking, oh no, the older guy is the master, the younger one's the disciple. But it was the flip. It was completely opposite. the younger one was the one with the purant fantasies and the 43-year-old was just kind of the lemming who was following along, you know, doing doing whatever the bidding was. So, if that's the case, if we have the work of two people, and I don't think it's more than two, I think it's either a pair or it's a singleton, then the guy on the porch is he's he's a buffoon, Matt. I have no other way to say it. He is unsophisticated. He is amateur-ish. And that makes me think since he's gotten away with it so far, that if there was a master behind the scenes already in the house, coming in the back door, which apparently was propped open, according to Savannah, maybe he's already in the house. Maybe this guy is checking out the scene. Are there cameras? Oh [ __ ] there's cameras. Let me pick some weeds and shove them into the camera lens. I mean, that that's amateurville. And the reason we think that this guy might be dead, Matt, 5 minutes later, I answer your question, is because the master would have taken him out because he is a buffoon. He is an idiot. He did get caught on camera and he's a liability. Your chain is only as strong as its weakest link. And even if there's just two people involved, then I would say Porch Guy is the weak link. And that would make it really important to silence him forever. So, do I think it's possible he's dead? I think it's very possible if we're going with the twoperson theory. And then that kind of explains why maybe even with the high um reward for information or for ratting someone out that we haven't heard anything. Correct. But I mean, stop and step back. Even if the perpetrator or perpetrators, they've gotten away with it. Do you think a million dollars is worth the price of your freedom for the rest of your life? No. It's chicken feed. Of course, you're going to, you know, and there's almost no way that one can tell on the other and get the reward without implicating himself. So, it sounds really tantalizing. Oh, I could wrap my partner out for a million dollars. But there's almost no way to do that without implicating yourself. It's not just a million-dollar reward. It's it's like dangling baloney in front of a hungry dog. You know, you might get bit. So, if um if the million dollars were appealing to to the guy on the porch and he was thinking about making dropping a dime and making that phone call and turning in his his boss, then it's entirely possible that his boss just eliminated him. Why Nancy to begin with? I mean, if they're not after money, you know, and the the first initial thought by a lot of people like myself, they're like,"Oh, you know, famous daughter, rich daughter." But if they're not going after the money, then why, Nancy? All right, I may be in the minority here. And again, bear with us because our theories change. I mean, my theory changed so much in the first month and in February as we got more information, but mostly my the changes of my theory have occurred not because of the evidence or lack thereof. I mean, guy on the porch video chilling. I mean, that is everyone's worst nightmare. The boogeyman on the porch coming to get you in the middle of the night. So that was the biggest breakthrough. But as time has gone on and as far as I know, the police are nowhere'sville. They have nothing. I I think we would if there was a if they had something, I think we would have had a legitimate arrest by now. And [snorts] I would argue that why Nancy, why Savannah's mother? My current thought, Matt, is that it's unrelated to Savannah Guthrie, that Nancy was abducted simply because she was a vulnerable senior citizen living alone in a very remote, dark neighborhood where this kind of invasion could happen and the person could get away with it. I am not at all certain that they knew that Nancy Guthrie was the mother of Savannah Guthrie. And I think all of the requests for ransom have been hoaxes. I do not. Perhaps the people who took her. Maybe Nancy was like, "Do you know who my daughter is? Don't harm me. She'll give you money." Right? But I think the initial home invasion was not about ransom. I think it was a burglary. And let me remind everybody that it's not a robbery. It's a burglary. Uh breaking and entering with the intent to commit a felony. any felony, whether it's kidnapping, arson, murder, rape, any of that, is a burglary. So, why they went into that house, everyone likes to interrupt me here and say, "But nothing was taken." We don't know that. We really don't know that. We don't know if that's a holdback from the police or uh I have to tell you, I have had burglaries in my home. it is it a year or two later I would still discover things that were missing that I hadn't realized were missing at the time especially jewelry that I thought you know you think you know when things are missing but Nancy lived alone do you think her children knew all of her jewelry her gold her silver all of the things that might have value in her home they probably didn't so they may have started pilfering going through things looking for the silver candlesticks in the dining room just follow me here it's it's a hypothetical Nancy wakes Nancy sees a light on. Nancy gets up to go to the bathroom in the middle of the night. Who knows? And finds people in her house and interrupts them. Oh my god, what are you doing here? So, envision something that they go there with an intention. Maybe before they could even start pilfering, Nancy interrupts them. Nancy um sees them, hears them, feels the vibration of the door opening. Who knows? And then things go bad. Things go south. Maybe there's a struggle. Maybe Nancy gets some skin cells under her fingernails from scratching at them. Maybe Nancy pulls the mask off of Porch Boy and recognizes him as a service provider from 5 10 years ago. Who knows? Now you've got a problem. Maybe, God forbid, they push her and she falls and hits her head. Or they punch her and she gets a bloody nose, which would explain the droplets on the front of the porch. Maybe she has a heart attack and all of a sudden they're like, "Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa." Yeah, just a few droplets. This isn't a stabbing. This isn't a shooting. This is just like bloody nose droplets, right? So now, what do you do? You just came to get jewelry, but now you've got this little old lady who might be dying, may have died, may be struggling, may be screaming, may have scratched you, may have identified you, and the only answer now is to cut your losses. Take her out of the house because she's all the evidence that could implicate you as either a witness or somebody who has your DNA on them. What if she's having a heart attack and they're like, "Oh my god. Oh my god. this is not what we planned. We just came for the jewelry. And one of them does a good Samaritan thing and tries to give her mouth-to-mouth resuscitation and save her. And now it didn't work. Maybe you've broken her sternum, you know, giving her chest compressions because this happens a lot with older people. Your saliva might be on her mouth. Your DNA is all over her face. People are going to think this is a sex crime. Now, you just know that you need to take Nancy in whatever state she's in with you to minimize your chances of getting caught. And the reason I'm on to this theory, Matt, is because we haven't caught them. The that the the taking of Nancy, whether it was for for cash ransom or whether it was to cover up a crime, they've gotten away with it. He's gotten away with it, even if Portuguay is acting alone. So removing her from the house may have been an afterthought, but in a really screwed up way, it was brilliant because without Nancy, we can't really solve this crime. We don't have a crime scene. We we have an abduction scene, but we don't have a homicide scene. We all think that she's no longer with us, but it's entirely possible that that's wrong. Um, and then there's that lead time, Matt. If even if they aren't from Mexico, they would head to Mexico. By the time you get across the border, I think it's 80 miles away. No one's even called the police yet until noon the next day. Nancy could already be in a foreign country before the family discovers the house has been broken into and calls the police. You are making us think about things that I've never even thought about. Now, I've thought about the Mexico thing, but I have never thought about what was left behind. And maybe it was not a struggle. Maybe it was uh oh my gosh, what is going on? And then providing possibly providing aid is what they're doing when they remove her from her home. Never thought of that. And and then what if she dies anyway, right? What if she walks out of there? They don't even carry her out of there, but then she has a heart attack. And they're like, "No one will believe us. No one will believe us." And the only reason I caught into this possibility is because of the buffoonery on the porch. I mean, this is not the way the holster is dangling. The gun doesn't fit in the holster. It's dangling right in his groin area. I mean, he keeps touching it like he's not familiar with the gun. Um, you know, the By the way, there's all this theory about where's they were they there two days before. I don't trust any of the timestamps on anything. All right? So, if you're convinced that they cased it 2 days before, all I see is that he's wearing the same thing in all of the video, and I think it's all from the same time frame. And I do think that he was in that house for at least the 42 minutes that we kind of have bookended the video catching him or stopping and then restarting. And that's enough time for not only a a a burglary gone wrong, but a complete panic attack of, "Oh my god, what are we going to do next?" If these were real kidnappers for ransom, they would be in and out like ninjas. Ninjas. All right. They would know. They would have cased it already and known whether the cameras are there. They wouldn't be like surprised about that. I think porch guy is looking for a key. I think he's looking around on that porch like, "Let's look under the mat. Let's look under the pot. Let's look over here and see if there's a fake stone over by these weeds." I think that they may have been looking for a key. Um, and then of course we know that the back door I don't I'm not privy to this information propped open. Don't I've heard conflicting stuff. A lot of it's leaked from the police and I don't trust it. So we just know according to Savannah that the the back door maybe even a side door something was propped open and I don't know if that means a swinging door or a slider right that may have had um you know some kind of chalk block put into it. So much we don't know. So that's very limiting for our investigative profiler for those of us on the outside trying to make sense of this. The police know way more than we do and you know they're they know way more than they're letting on. And hopefully we get those images from the back area that was promised to us because you know I mean it worked out with the video up in front because we thought that we weren't going to get anything and then lo and behold they found that. You mentioned that the perpetrator may have been recognized by Nancy. Another really great point there. And then you also mentioned um the possibility of looking for a key. I hadn't thought about that. So, and you also thought that she wasn't chosen because she's Nancy possibly. So, which like what do you think? Do you think that she knew her abductor or not? I don't think she knew him, but I think he knew her or of her. Yeah. Just um she's in her 80s. She's lived in this house since the 70s. This is the house Savannah grew up in. I find that lovely and charming because, you know, not for nothing, Savannah uh she's certainly not the richest person in America, but she's got enough money to to say, "Mom, would you like a different house? Would you like to, you know, and her mom stayed in this house because she loved it. This was the house that they bought with, you know, Savannah mother and father bought it together when they came from Australia and they raised their kids there and she's been in there for more than 50 years, I think. So, she loved this house. Think about 50 years of a woman, a young widow, no less. She's going to have a lot of service providers taking care of her home over the years. I mean, landscapers, pool guys. We know that the roof was done relatively recently. The house is going to be painted every few years. There's going to be people who change the filters on her air conditioning unit. And I mean there's and cleaners and you know handymen and movers and things like that. Theoretically over 50 years easily more than a hundred service providers have come to that house. Exterminators the tick guy you know it's just it's never ending. She's just busy going hello thank you. Do you need to use the restroom? Oh please come right in. Go right over there. Need a glass of water here. Let me get you a glass of water. Right. I'll be out on the back deck. Let me know if you need anything while you repaint my bedroom. Got it. Hundreds of people could have been in this house helping to take care of it. Over the last 50 years and looked around and I don't think it happened. This person has been in there 50 years ago, but probably sometime in the last 5 years. There have been dozens of service providers, craftsmen who come in to do maintenance and looked around and probably said, "You know what, little old lady, heart of hearing, this is the best house to just come into in the middle of the night. She won't even wake up. Looks like I see jewelry boxes over there in her bedroom. Oh my goodness, look at all the sterling silver in the dining room." Just making this up. But little old ladies are the the perfect vulnerable who live alone in remote dark locations like this without alarm systems and not paying their subscription or you know this the camera system doesn't work which this provider may have known because maybe he was there to install the cameras and doing security you know working on the security system may have even disabled the security system. [snorts] So this is again my long-winded answer. Does she know him? No, ju like she might just know he's the guy who changes the filter on her air conditioning system, but he has been in there a few times. He knows the house. He knows who Nancy is, but he may not know that Nancy Guthrie is the mother of the renowned anchor of the NBC Today show. I mean, don't forget it was open season after this video came out. Poor Door Dash drivers, right? Like every guy who looked like it could be that guy in the mass got arrested. It was horrible. Getting taken down. And I remember they hauled up the poor guy. Carlos was his name. I forget. Poor Carlos. He's like, "I have no idea who Savannah Guthrie is. What are you talking? Who's Nancy Guthrie?" Like, just remember, not everyone watches the Today Show. Not everyone knows who Savannah is. A lot of people are just busy changing air conditioning filters, delivering food, cleaning the pool, and not watching the NBC Today show every morning because they're already at work. So, don't assume that this guy knew the connection between Nancy and Savannah. Uh, what do you make of the behavior? Do they look calm to you? Do they is, you know, and that could be like they've done something before or whether or not it was really planned out in their mind, I would imagine. Okay. Um, I'd say this person is is done it before but is successfully catburgurglar. Um, but is certainly not a seasoned professional. Again, the the fact that he's got his gloves and his mask on, but I'm telling you that the whole weeds in the camera and the where the he's wearing the holster, he's trying to graduate to something bigger than what he's done before. All right. So, this person may or may not have been arrested in the past, but it's going to be for low stuff, you know, like trespassing, could be break bene, probably low-level drug dealing. I This person's not just woken up that morning and said, "Okay, I think I'm going to go to Nancy Guthri's house. I've been dreaming about this forever. Let me give it a try." Um, I think this person has been in the house at least once before in the last 5 years, but I and and is a prowler is a person probably looking for money things to jewelry is huge. And here's the thing I'm going to go out on a limb with. I think he's high. I think he's on drugs at that exact moment. People on drugs uh make terrible decisions. They are incredibly overly confident. Everyone's like, "He's walking with the confidence of somebody who's done this many times before. He's got to be a predicate felon." I'm like,"No, he's walking with a confidence of somebody who's high and completely miscalculating the risk of what he's doing." And I know that seems counterintuitive, but sometimes beginner's luck is better than 5 years of experience as a burglar. He's so disorganized, he actually succeeds in getting away with it. [snorts] That's also very fascinating. And that would make sense, right? Uh that would that's that high confidence. Um or doesn't have a care in the world. Um you know, either way you look at it. And then that also means cocaine confidence, but I'm going cocaine confidence. [laughter] And then, you know, it it also means, you know, someone that could be clumsy in what they do, which, you know, whether or not she was injured on her own account or by theirs, but um and who needs 42 minutes to figure out what to do next. Yeah. I mean, if this was for profit, it would be in, out. Nancy, you're coming with us. Keep her alive. No accidents can happen because she's only worth something alive. Give that proof of life. Contact the family directly. Do not get involved in the media. Don't call TMZ because then it becomes a media circus. You just want the money. This was never for ransom, I'm convinced. Are the ransom notes connected to this person? No. Nope. And then what's in the backpack? It's so full. This may not be the first burglary he's done tonight, [laughter] especially if he's on foot or the getaway car is down the road. So, very often what they have in the backpacks. I've seen burglars who carry Tyveck suits, you know, those white suits that you wear when you paint and you don't want to get your clothes and they're really lightweight and called a clean suit. And sometimes they put this on right before they go in because it contains all the hair in the fiber. Could be a Tyveck suit in there. Clean suit if you will, which would explain why we don't have that much trace evidence. We don't even know if the unknown DNA in there belongs to the guy on the porch. Okay. Um, so could be a Tyveck suit in there, a clean suit, so to speak. More gloves and probably more pillow cases or what I they very often use. I've I've interviewed a lot of burglars. You know those really thin, lightweight laundry bags that you give your college kid when he goes away to college. You can stuff a lot of stuff in. So you come with the getaway bags, right? And you've got a whole bunch of laundry bags in there that you're going to start stuffing things into and then hoist them over your shoulder like Santa Claus and go out with all the rest of the stuff. Burglary tools are in there. Pretty simple. Okay. What are you watching for next?[snorts] Well, what's going to crack the case? One of two things. If it's if Okay, theory number one. Let's go for the twoperson things. Let's say we have a master disciple duo, which statistically is the most likely. The only reason I'm giving you 50/50 is because how much time has passed, right? Usually a master disciple will screw up, might turn on each other. Um, one might kill the other, then we find a guy, you know, in the porch, but he's not alive. You know, they usually screw up really fast. Duos, okay? They're a foliadoo. They're wicked attraction. They feed each other. When I say chemically, I don't mean literally chemicals, but psychologically there's a chemical thing which is like, you think of doing that, I think of doing that, too. You'll get the back door, I'll get the front door. Can't do this without you. You know, and then as soon as things go bad, it's like a breakup. It's like a divorce. They turn on each other, right? You screwed up. You hit her. Why did you do that? Right? So, that's why I'm like not hot on the twoperson theory at this point. If there were two and one hasn't killed the other, I have no nice way to say that. Then what happens next is that we may end up with one turning on the other. I've seen this like on my podcast, we just covered a case of a girl who was killed by eight of her best friends. Imagine eight people holding that secret. And they did it for 5 years until a $50,000 reward made one of the girls go, "Let me tell you who did it." Without realizing she was one of the eight and that, you know, by taking them and showing them the evidence that she had about the whole crime, she would, of course, she's in prison today. All right? So, that's the thing. Time can pass, but they might turn on each other in a moment of desperation, but far more likely as revenge, not for the money, because these guys are smart enough to know a million dollars is not worth the next 50 years of your life in prison. That's fascinating. I really enjoy talking to you. First off, you have a great voice, so listen to the podcast, everybody. Um, how can we get a hold of you? How can we follow you? Oh, it's pretty easy. Google will take you right to me. Okay, so the biggest thing I really want to thank you podcaster to podcaster, thanks for having me as a guest. You know, Criminal Appeal with Dr. Casey Jordan is pretty new. We've only been out for about 6 months and I am filming season 3 just next week. 10 more episodes coming out. And the difference between me and everybody else, you know, I get that being Johnny on the spot like you do is the the how you make a fabulous podcast, but I have four other full-time jobs, so I can't be Johnny on the spot. So, what I do is cover cases that I've worked myself in depth. You know, we do 60 to 90 to even 120 minutes on a case that I know firsthand. So, uh first of all, go to go to YouTube, hit subscribe for criminal appeal. And then if you really still need to find me, I have been a full-time professor at Western Connecticut State University for the past 35 years. So, you can always find me there. Well, I will have all of the links in my show notes. And thank you so much, Dr. Casey Jordan and we hope to see you soon hopefully when they've made an arrest. Yeah. And that's the other way, Matt, just to sum it all up. Either one turns on the other or the DNA will be the nail in the coffin. They will link it through DNA. But that's my prediction. And you know, mostly I just want to I always have to end everything with wishing peace to the Guthrie family. um Savannah who I've been on the Today show so you know we used to work with her at at the Court TV 30 years ago I worked with Savannah when she was like fresh out of law school reading the news so she has a special place in my heart and I know the family has been through the mill they are grieving uh they've really I think were um maligned with a lot of false accusations so I hope they're recovering from that and um just always remember Nancy and her family thank you so much let's keep Nancy and her family in our thoughts and prayers. Hopefully, they get justice and answers soon. Meanwhile, if you have any information in the case, please call 1800 call FBI. You can remain anonymous. There's those huge cash rewards. I'll keep you updated on any developments that I hear about, any major developments, so be sure to follow the YouTube channel here in the link below. Thank you so much for being here. Please take care of yourself. We'll see you next time.