{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":3600.0,"endTime":3603.333,"body":"(Bell Ringing)"},{"startTime":3604.625,"endTime":3606.541,"body":"Hey folks, welcome to the DarkHorse"},{"startTime":3606.541,"endTime":3609.541,"body":"podcast, live stream number 6,000 three."},{"startTime":3610.708,"endTime":3611.625,"body":"What number is it actually?"},{"startTime":3612.458,"endTime":3612.666,"body":"3,000."},{"startTime":3614.625,"endTime":3615.375,"body":"I don't think it's 3,000."},{"startTime":3616.625,"endTime":3619.083,"body":"Did I make that up?"},{"startTime":3619.125,"endTime":3619.541,"body":"I don't know."},{"startTime":3619.833,"endTime":3620.5,"body":"Somebody made it up."},{"startTime":3620.5,"endTime":3621.166,"body":"It's 3,000."},{"startTime":3621.166,"endTime":3621.666,"body":"It's 3,000."},{"startTime":3622.125,"endTime":3622.916,"body":"All right, not prime."},{"startTime":3623.25,"endTime":3623.833,"body":"Very simple."},{"startTime":3625.5,"endTime":3627.125,"body":"It's gonna be that kind of a day, huh?"},{"startTime":3627.208,"endTime":3628.625,"body":"Despite of your-- Like you're wrong."},{"startTime":3628.625,"endTime":3629.875,"body":"Really am I not wrong?"},{"startTime":3629.916,"endTime":3630.875,"body":"Where did that come from?"},{"startTime":3632.125,"endTime":3634.916,"body":"Man, it's just, it's crazy out there."},{"startTime":3634.916,"endTime":3635.833,"body":"And I'm trying to keep my head above"},{"startTime":3635.833,"endTime":3637.375,"body":"water, which is part of what we are going"},{"startTime":3637.375,"endTime":3638.625,"body":"to be talking about today."},{"startTime":3638.625,"endTime":3640.458,"body":"How do you keep your head above water"},{"startTime":3640.458,"endTime":3642.166,"body":"when everything is so confusing?"},{"startTime":3642.208,"endTime":3643.541,"body":"One thing to do is do what you're doing"},{"startTime":3643.541,"endTime":3644.416,"body":"right now, which is just"},{"startTime":3644.416,"endTime":3645.791,"body":"to remain on solid ground."},{"startTime":3646.666,"endTime":3647.166,"body":"Terra firma."},{"startTime":3647.375,"endTime":3649.458,"body":"I say it every time I get off the ferry"},{"startTime":3649.458,"endTime":3651.166,"body":"or the airplane, terra firma."},{"startTime":3651.541,"endTime":3652.791,"body":"So that's really what we're about."},{"startTime":3653.333,"endTime":3655.75,"body":"Terra firma, how do you get to cognitive"},{"startTime":3655.75,"endTime":3657.375,"body":"terra firma-- Fair enough."},{"startTime":3658.0,"endTime":3661.125,"body":"An environment that is basically like"},{"startTime":3662.0,"endTime":3664.75,"body":"intellectual quicksand across the board."},{"startTime":3666.708,"endTime":3668.166,"body":"Across the board is probably the wrong"},{"startTime":3668.166,"endTime":3670.833,"body":"metaphor for quicksand, but so be it."},{"startTime":3674.333,"endTime":3675.583,"body":"Yep, so I'm Dr."},{"startTime":3675.583,"endTime":3675.916,"body":"Bret Weinstein."},{"startTime":3676.166,"endTime":3676.666,"body":"You're Dr."},{"startTime":3676.666,"endTime":3677.166,"body":"Heather Heying."},{"startTime":3677.5,"endTime":3679.083,"body":"Yeah, that's right."},{"startTime":3679.666,"endTime":3681.208,"body":"We did a fun Q\u0026A last week,"},{"startTime":3681.208,"endTime":3682.5,"body":"which you can find on Locals."},{"startTime":3682.833,"endTime":3684.333,"body":"And we're not doing one after the show"},{"startTime":3684.333,"endTime":3686.666,"body":"this week, but we will be having one for"},{"startTime":3686.666,"endTime":3688.041,"body":"two hours this Sunday"},{"startTime":3688.041,"endTime":3689.458,"body":"at Locals at 11 a.m."},{"startTime":3689.458,"endTime":3689.708,"body":"Pacific."},{"startTime":3690.0,"endTime":3690.458,"body":"Join us."},{"startTime":3691.083,"endTime":3692.0,"body":"Join us on Locals now"},{"startTime":3692.0,"endTime":3693.208,"body":"for the watch party."},{"startTime":3694.0,"endTime":3695.75,"body":"And what else, Bret?"},{"startTime":3697.125,"endTime":3697.5,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":3698.875,"endTime":3700.625,"body":"Join us for a big party at our house."},{"startTime":3700.875,"endTime":3702.833,"body":"No, all right, that's not it."},{"startTime":3703.166,"endTime":3703.791,"body":"Am I missing something?"},{"startTime":3706.916,"endTime":3708.0,"body":"Maybe it's time to go"},{"startTime":3708.0,"endTime":3710.375,"body":"right into our awesome sponsor."},{"startTime":3710.416,"endTime":3710.791,"body":"Hey, the rent."},{"startTime":3712.166,"endTime":3714.708,"body":"And while I read the first couple of ads,"},{"startTime":3715.458,"endTime":3717.0,"body":"you can, I don't know, find some dry"},{"startTime":3717.0,"endTime":3718.583,"body":"ground to stand on and..."},{"startTime":3720.083,"endTime":3721.333,"body":"We will be--"},{"startTime":3721.708,"endTime":3722.125,"body":"Get an umbrella?"},{"startTime":3723.958,"endTime":3726.0,"body":"Yeah, no, it's beginning to pour."},{"startTime":3726.75,"endTime":3727.5,"body":"All right, good."},{"startTime":3727.916,"endTime":3728.916,"body":"That sounds like a good plan."},{"startTime":3729.125,"endTime":3730.208,"body":"Okay, okay."},{"startTime":3730.208,"endTime":3732.875,"body":"Our first sponsor this week is VanMan."},{"startTime":3733.083,"endTime":3734.541,"body":"Here at DarkHorse, we love VanMan's"},{"startTime":3734.541,"endTime":3735.083,"body":"products and are"},{"startTime":3735.083,"endTime":3736.041,"body":"certain that you will too."},{"startTime":3736.708,"endTime":3738.458,"body":"Absolutely everything we've had from them"},{"startTime":3738.458,"endTime":3740.083,"body":"has been exceptional, from their pearl"},{"startTime":3740.083,"endTime":3742.291,"body":"eye cream to their Talon's sunscreen,"},{"startTime":3742.833,"endTime":3744.5,"body":"their coconut magnesium deodorant, and"},{"startTime":3744.5,"endTime":3745.541,"body":"their remarkable remineral,"},{"startTime":3745.875,"endTime":3746.875,"body":"(Mumbles)"},{"startTime":3748.0,"endTime":3750.458,"body":"or a remineralizing, a chewing gum."},{"startTime":3750.458,"endTime":3751.416,"body":"All of it is superior."},{"startTime":3751.416,"endTime":3752.291,"body":"You particularly, I mean,"},{"startTime":3752.75,"endTime":3754.125,"body":"I love all their products."},{"startTime":3754.125,"endTime":3755.541,"body":"I'm not a gum person, but"},{"startTime":3755.541,"endTime":3756.625,"body":"you're really enjoying their gum."},{"startTime":3756.625,"endTime":3757.625,"body":"I love their gum."},{"startTime":3757.875,"endTime":3758.375,"body":"It's great."},{"startTime":3760.583,"endTime":3764.208,"body":"And this week, as people suddenly became"},{"startTime":3764.208,"endTime":3767.375,"body":"aware that gum base, which is the base of"},{"startTime":3767.375,"endTime":3769.833,"body":"most gums, is plastic and that it's"},{"startTime":3769.833,"endTime":3772.458,"body":"probably not a good idea to be energizing"},{"startTime":3772.458,"endTime":3774.416,"body":"plastic repeatedly in your mouth,"},{"startTime":3776.208,"endTime":3780.166,"body":"happens, we got a bunch of chicle based"},{"startTime":3780.166,"endTime":3782.5,"body":"gum in our cabinets."},{"startTime":3782.708,"endTime":3783.375,"body":"Great stuff and you don't"},{"startTime":3783.375,"endTime":3784.25,"body":"have to worry about your health."},{"startTime":3784.25,"endTime":3785.083,"body":"It's actually good for you."},{"startTime":3785.291,"endTime":3785.708,"body":"It's good for your teeth."},{"startTime":3786.083,"endTime":3787.166,"body":"VanMan's is great, all of it."},{"startTime":3787.208,"endTime":3788.208,"body":"It is great, yeah."},{"startTime":3788.541,"endTime":3791.166,"body":"Little glass jars, not"},{"startTime":3791.166,"endTime":3792.458,"body":"even plastic in the jar."},{"startTime":3792.458,"endTime":3792.791,"body":"It's wonderful."},{"startTime":3794.25,"endTime":3795.083,"body":"Today we're gonna focus on"},{"startTime":3795.083,"endTime":3796.416,"body":"their tallow and honey balm."},{"startTime":3796.666,"endTime":3798.333,"body":"In particular, tallow is the best"},{"startTime":3798.333,"endTime":3799.708,"body":"moisturizer on earth because the fatty"},{"startTime":3799.708,"endTime":3801.458,"body":"acids in tallow are nearly identical to"},{"startTime":3801.458,"endTime":3803.083,"body":"the oils in your own skin."},{"startTime":3803.5,"endTime":3804.916,"body":"One use and you'll feel the difference."},{"startTime":3804.958,"endTime":3806.416,"body":"Your skin will be soft and smooth."},{"startTime":3806.958,"endTime":3808.666,"body":"Little goes a long way, this stuff lasts"},{"startTime":3808.875,"endTime":3810.5,"body":"and it's fantastic for you."},{"startTime":3811.166,"endTime":3812.958,"body":"And tallow balm isn't just a moisturizer."},{"startTime":3812.958,"endTime":3814.166,"body":"It can place everything from lotions and"},{"startTime":3814.166,"endTime":3814.958,"body":"wrinkle creams to"},{"startTime":3814.958,"endTime":3816.5,"body":"Neosporin and diaper balm."},{"startTime":3816.75,"endTime":3819.583,"body":"You know, I wrote that in part because it"},{"startTime":3819.583,"endTime":3821.208,"body":"was sort of suggested and every time I"},{"startTime":3821.208,"endTime":3823.333,"body":"read it, I think, I don't, do people"},{"startTime":3823.333,"endTime":3824.625,"body":"really have all sorts of different"},{"startTime":3824.708,"endTime":3825.791,"body":"products for all of these things?"},{"startTime":3825.791,"endTime":3827.875,"body":"I guess all those products exist."},{"startTime":3827.875,"endTime":3829.25,"body":"So the idea that this is sort of"},{"startTime":3829.25,"endTime":3830.916,"body":"revolutionary because you can use it for"},{"startTime":3830.916,"endTime":3832.208,"body":"all of the things on your skin."},{"startTime":3832.208,"endTime":3833.208,"body":"It's like your skin is your skin."},{"startTime":3833.75,"endTime":3834.958,"body":"Use this on your skin."},{"startTime":3835.375,"endTime":3836.041,"body":"It's awesome."},{"startTime":3836.333,"endTime":3838.666,"body":"That should be the lesson here."},{"startTime":3838.958,"endTime":3842.791,"body":"Also, I think it's evidence of major"},{"startTime":3842.791,"endTime":3844.541,"body":"progress that we can talk about diaper"},{"startTime":3844.541,"endTime":3845.5,"body":"balm and people don't"},{"startTime":3845.5,"endTime":3847.416,"body":"immediately think shoe balm, right?"},{"startTime":3847.75,"endTime":3847.958,"body":"No."},{"startTime":3849.833,"endTime":3851.041,"body":"I think we've come a long way."},{"startTime":3851.041,"endTime":3854.166,"body":"You are free to differ, but do so while--"},{"startTime":3854.208,"endTime":3856.125,"body":"Literally no one in the audience,"},{"startTime":3856.583,"endTime":3858.708,"body":"including me, and I dare say, Jen, has"},{"startTime":3858.708,"endTime":3860.333,"body":"ever heard diaper balm"},{"startTime":3860.333,"endTime":3861.958,"body":"and thought shoe balm."},{"startTime":3862.208,"endTime":3864.208,"body":"Well, I guarantee you there are people in"},{"startTime":3864.208,"endTime":3865.625,"body":"this audience who thought the same thing"},{"startTime":3865.625,"endTime":3867.833,"body":"I did and are now feeling quite a bit of"},{"startTime":3867.833,"endTime":3869.541,"body":"relief that they are not alone and you"},{"startTime":3869.541,"endTime":3871.166,"body":"are not alone, all three of you."},{"startTime":3871.208,"endTime":3871.791,"body":"You are alone."},{"startTime":3874.541,"endTime":3876.625,"body":"All right, back to the diaper balm."},{"startTime":3876.916,"endTime":3877.166,"body":"No."},{"startTime":3879.0,"endTime":3879.791,"body":"Where were we?"},{"startTime":3879.791,"endTime":3881.125,"body":"It works on rashes and"},{"startTime":3881.125,"endTime":3883.083,"body":"scrapes, acne and sunburn."},{"startTime":3883.583,"endTime":3884.625,"body":"Our boys who are young and at"},{"startTime":3884.625,"endTime":3885.958,"body":"college now swear by it too."},{"startTime":3886.333,"endTime":3888.125,"body":"The ingredient list of van bans, honey"},{"startTime":3888.125,"endTime":3889.666,"body":"and tallow balm is"},{"startTime":3889.666,"endTime":3891.0,"body":"short and entirely edible."},{"startTime":3891.625,"endTime":3893.0,"body":"Actually, the"},{"startTime":3893.0,"endTime":3894.166,"body":"ingredient list isn't edible."},{"startTime":3894.958,"endTime":3897.041,"body":"The ingredients, wow, this is gonna be a"},{"startTime":3897.041,"endTime":3898.5,"body":"stupid and pedantic show."},{"startTime":3898.5,"endTime":3900.5,"body":"It's gonna be a pedantic man, it's a yes."},{"startTime":3901.333,"endTime":3903.625,"body":"Yep, I mean, I'm pedantic king myself."},{"startTime":3904.083,"endTime":3908.208,"body":"Yes, there's a lot of fruit on the pedant"},{"startTime":3908.208,"endTime":3909.458,"body":"tree, the pedant tree."},{"startTime":3910.833,"endTime":3911.75,"body":"Yeah, okay."},{"startTime":3912.958,"endTime":3915.25,"body":"The ingredients in, there aren't that"},{"startTime":3915.25,"endTime":3917.166,"body":"many ingredients in van bans, honey and"},{"startTime":3917.166,"endTime":3918.625,"body":"tallow balm, and all of"},{"startTime":3918.625,"endTime":3919.708,"body":"them are entirely edible."},{"startTime":3919.958,"endTime":3921.375,"body":"See, I rewrote it on the fly."},{"startTime":3921.75,"endTime":3922.0,"body":"Nice."},{"startTime":3922.875,"endTime":3924.333,"body":"Man, it's not easy to write on a fly,"},{"startTime":3924.333,"endTime":3926.041,"body":"it's like painting on a grain of rice."},{"startTime":3926.5,"endTime":3926.875,"body":"Oh my God."},{"startTime":3928.583,"endTime":3930.25,"body":"(Laughing)"},{"startTime":3930.833,"endTime":3933.625,"body":"It, van bans, honey and tallow balm has"},{"startTime":3933.625,"endTime":3936.083,"body":"got 100% grass-fed and finished suet,"},{"startTime":3936.083,"endTime":3937.958,"body":"beef tallow, organic raw honey and"},{"startTime":3937.958,"endTime":3939.958,"body":"beeswax, and organic cold-pressed extra"},{"startTime":3939.958,"endTime":3941.916,"body":"virgin olive oil, and you can get it with"},{"startTime":3941.916,"endTime":3943.125,"body":"or without the essential oils."},{"startTime":3943.791,"endTime":3945.041,"body":"Van bans, tallow and honey balm is"},{"startTime":3945.041,"endTime":3946.541,"body":"powerful enough to heal the skin, yet"},{"startTime":3946.541,"endTime":3948.333,"body":"safe enough to spread on your toast."},{"startTime":3948.75,"endTime":3949.958,"body":"I wrote that, didn't I?"},{"startTime":3951.333,"endTime":3952.291,"body":"You were in one of those modes."},{"startTime":3953.166,"endTime":3954.458,"body":"That's real ingredients for you."},{"startTime":3954.916,"endTime":3956.75,"body":"And unlike many other seemingly small,"},{"startTime":3956.75,"endTime":3958.125,"body":"wholesome companies making healthy,"},{"startTime":3958.125,"endTime":3959.041,"body":"organic products, van"},{"startTime":3959.041,"endTime":3960.5,"body":"ban is the real deal."},{"startTime":3961.0,"endTime":3961.666,"body":"Remember when Burt's"},{"startTime":3961.666,"endTime":3962.541,"body":"Bees made great stuff?"},{"startTime":3962.75,"endTime":3963.333,"body":"Native, Dr."},{"startTime":3963.5,"endTime":3964.666,"body":"Squatch, any of those?"},{"startTime":3964.666,"endTime":3965.875,"body":"All these companies have been bought"},{"startTime":3966.208,"endTime":3967.75,"body":"since they were first formed by"},{"startTime":3967.75,"endTime":3969.5,"body":"mega-corporations and private equity"},{"startTime":3969.5,"endTime":3971.625,"body":"firms, which hijack beloved brands and"},{"startTime":3971.625,"endTime":3972.583,"body":"replace them with the"},{"startTime":3972.583,"endTime":3973.708,"body":"usual corporate slop."},{"startTime":3974.333,"endTime":3975.833,"body":"Van bans has never"},{"startTime":3975.833,"endTime":3978.875,"body":"and will never sold out."},{"startTime":3978.875,"endTime":3980.375,"body":"I should just stop."},{"startTime":3980.375,"endTime":3982.458,"body":"Has never sold out, that makes sense."},{"startTime":3982.75,"endTime":3984.25,"body":"Will never sell out."},{"startTime":3984.25,"endTime":3985.166,"body":"I don't know how you write that"},{"startTime":3985.166,"endTime":3986.208,"body":"efficiently, but you know."},{"startTime":3986.666,"endTime":3988.208,"body":"We know that they won't."},{"startTime":3988.291,"endTime":3988.541,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":3988.583,"endTime":3989.458,"body":"They're not those kind of people."},{"startTime":3989.5,"endTime":3991.041,"body":"They're not those sorts of people."},{"startTime":3991.041,"endTime":3992.291,"body":"Ready to ditch the corporate chemicals?"},{"startTime":3992.625,"endTime":3996.625,"body":"Go to vanman.shop.com slash darkhorse26"},{"startTime":3997.083,"endTime":3998.708,"body":"and use code darkhorse26"},{"startTime":3998.708,"endTime":4000.333,"body":"for 15% off your first order."},{"startTime":4000.916,"endTime":4004.791,"body":"That's vanman.shop slash darkhorse26 and"},{"startTime":4004.791,"endTime":4006.291,"body":"use code darkhorse26 for"},{"startTime":4006.291,"endTime":4007.791,"body":"15% off your first order."},{"startTime":4007.791,"endTime":4010.416,"body":"VanMan, real ingredients, no exceptions."},{"startTime":4012.666,"endTime":4015.291,"body":"This is gonna be quite an episode."},{"startTime":4015.291,"endTime":4016.75,"body":"Yes, already is."},{"startTime":4017.166,"endTime":4019.208,"body":"Our second sponsor this week is Xlear."},{"startTime":4019.791,"endTime":4020.875,"body":"Xlear is a nasal spray that"},{"startTime":4020.875,"endTime":4021.958,"body":"supports respiratory health."},{"startTime":4021.958,"endTime":4023.458,"body":"It's widely available online and in"},{"startTime":4023.458,"endTime":4025.333,"body":"stores in both it and the company that"},{"startTime":4025.333,"endTime":4026.208,"body":"makes it are fantastic."},{"startTime":4026.458,"endTime":4027.333,"body":"It's Xlear, that's"},{"startTime":4027.333,"endTime":4029.833,"body":"X-L-E-A-R, pronounced Xlear."},{"startTime":4030.75,"endTime":4031.916,"body":"Throughout history, improvements in"},{"startTime":4031.916,"endTime":4033.458,"body":"sanitation and hygiene have had huge"},{"startTime":4033.458,"endTime":4035.333,"body":"impacts on human longevity and quality of"},{"startTime":4035.333,"endTime":4036.5,"body":"life, more so than"},{"startTime":4036.5,"endTime":4037.541,"body":"traditional medical advances."},{"startTime":4037.791,"endTime":4039.666,"body":"For instance, when doctors started to"},{"startTime":4039.666,"endTime":4041.0,"body":"wash their hands between handling"},{"startTime":4041.0,"endTime":4042.416,"body":"cadavers and helping women give birth,"},{"startTime":4042.791,"endTime":4043.375,"body":"the rate of maternal"},{"startTime":4043.375,"endTime":4044.458,"body":"deaths went way down."},{"startTime":4044.958,"endTime":4045.833,"body":"Seems obvious to us"},{"startTime":4045.833,"endTime":4047.125,"body":"now, but it wasn't then."},{"startTime":4047.708,"endTime":4048.791,"body":"Breathing polluted air and drinking"},{"startTime":4048.791,"endTime":4050.208,"body":"tainted water have hugely negative"},{"startTime":4050.208,"endTime":4051.291,"body":"effects on human health."},{"startTime":4051.291,"endTime":4051.916,"body":"Clean up the air and"},{"startTime":4051.916,"endTime":4053.291,"body":"water, people get healthier."},{"startTime":4054.5,"endTime":4056.083,"body":"Nasal hygiene often gets overlooked, but"},{"startTime":4056.083,"endTime":4057.541,"body":"considered the majority of bacteria and"},{"startTime":4057.541,"endTime":4058.625,"body":"viruses that make us sick"},{"startTime":4058.625,"endTime":4059.916,"body":"enter through our mouth and nose."},{"startTime":4060.583,"endTime":4062.083,"body":"It has become a cultural norm to wash our"},{"startTime":4062.083,"endTime":4063.583,"body":"hands in order to help stop the spread of"},{"startTime":4063.583,"endTime":4065.25,"body":"disease from person to person, but it's"},{"startTime":4065.25,"endTime":4066.708,"body":"rare that we get sick through our hands."},{"startTime":4067.25,"endTime":4067.875,"body":"Rather, we get sick"},{"startTime":4067.875,"endTime":4068.708,"body":"through our mouth and nose."},{"startTime":4069.5,"endTime":4071.0,"body":"So shouldn't we be using something that"},{"startTime":4071.0,"endTime":4072.5,"body":"we know blocks bacterial and viral"},{"startTime":4072.5,"endTime":4073.333,"body":"adhesion in the nose?"},{"startTime":4073.875,"endTime":4074.416,"body":"Enter Xlear."},{"startTime":4075.166,"endTime":4076.916,"body":"Xlear is a nasal spray that contains"},{"startTime":4076.916,"endTime":4079.541,"body":"xylitol, also spelled with an X, a five"},{"startTime":4079.541,"endTime":4080.708,"body":"carbon sugar alcohol."},{"startTime":4081.083,"endTime":4082.75,"body":"Our bodies naturally contain five carbon"},{"startTime":4082.75,"endTime":4084.5,"body":"sugars, mostly in the form of ribose and"},{"startTime":4084.5,"endTime":4086.375,"body":"deoxyribose, which are the backbone"},{"startTime":4086.375,"endTime":4088.125,"body":"sugars in RNA and DNA."},{"startTime":4089.0,"endTime":4090.541,"body":"Xylitol is known to reduce how sticky"},{"startTime":4090.541,"endTime":4092.25,"body":"bacteria and viruses are to our tissues."},{"startTime":4092.75,"endTime":4094.458,"body":"In the presence of Xylitol, bacteria and"},{"startTime":4094.458,"endTime":4096.625,"body":"viruses, including strep, SARS-CoV-2 and"},{"startTime":4096.625,"endTime":4099.083,"body":"RSV, don't adhere to our airways as well,"},{"startTime":4099.291,"endTime":4100.666,"body":"which helps our body's natural defense"},{"startTime":4100.666,"endTime":4102.416,"body":"mechanisms easily flush them away."},{"startTime":4103.458,"endTime":4104.541,"body":"Xlear is a simple nasal spray."},{"startTime":4104.791,"endTime":4105.75,"body":"Use it morning and evening."},{"startTime":4105.75,"endTime":4106.833,"body":"It takes just three seconds."},{"startTime":4106.833,"endTime":4109.5,"body":"It's fast and easy and decidedly healthy."},{"startTime":4110.25,"endTime":4111.75,"body":"If any of this sounds familiar, perhaps"},{"startTime":4111.75,"endTime":4113.125,"body":"you listen to Bret's conversation with"},{"startTime":4113.125,"endTime":4114.708,"body":"Nate Jones, founder of Xlear on the"},{"startTime":4114.708,"endTime":4117.208,"body":"Inside Rail in November, 2024, or to"},{"startTime":4117.208,"endTime":4118.625,"body":"Bret's conversation with Nate's father,"},{"startTime":4118.666,"endTime":4120.5,"body":"and to Lon Jones, osteopath and inventor"},{"startTime":4120.5,"endTime":4122.625,"body":"of Xlear, on how xylitol interacts with"},{"startTime":4122.625,"endTime":4124.583,"body":"respiratory viruses in May of 2025."},{"startTime":4125.375,"endTime":4126.916,"body":"We recommend those conversations and we"},{"startTime":4126.916,"endTime":4128.958,"body":"highly recommend Xlear as a daily habit"},{"startTime":4128.958,"endTime":4129.708,"body":"and prophylactic"},{"startTime":4129.708,"endTime":4131.083,"body":"against respiratory illnesses."},{"startTime":4131.916,"endTime":4134.375,"body":"That's Xlear with an X, X-L-E-A-R."},{"startTime":4134.708,"endTime":4136.291,"body":"Get Xlear online or at your pharmacy,"},{"startTime":4136.5,"endTime":4137.666,"body":"grocery store, or natural products"},{"startTime":4137.666,"endTime":4139.583,"body":"retailer, and start taking six seconds"},{"startTime":4139.583,"endTime":4141.125,"body":"each day to improve your nasal hygiene"},{"startTime":4141.125,"endTime":4142.583,"body":"and support your respiratory health."},{"startTime":4142.958,"endTime":4144.875,"body":"Awesome, I love this stuff, and I feel"},{"startTime":4144.875,"endTime":4147.0,"body":"vastly better getting on"},{"startTime":4147.0,"endTime":4148.5,"body":"an airplane after using it."},{"startTime":4148.833,"endTime":4150.083,"body":"I just think the likelihood of"},{"startTime":4150.083,"endTime":4152.416,"body":"contracting something drops way down, and"},{"startTime":4152.416,"endTime":4154.166,"body":"you know, one cold a year."},{"startTime":4154.166,"endTime":4155.666,"body":"You spare yourself one cold a year."},{"startTime":4155.666,"endTime":4157.166,"body":"That's actually a significant upgrade in"},{"startTime":4157.166,"endTime":4157.791,"body":"the quality of life."},{"startTime":4158.041,"endTime":4158.375,"body":"It is."},{"startTime":4159.208,"endTime":4161.25,"body":"All right, our final sponsor this week is"},{"startTime":4161.25,"endTime":4163.5,"body":"Branch Basics, which makes simple,"},{"startTime":4163.5,"endTime":4165.541,"body":"all-natural, non-toxic,"},{"startTime":4166.333,"endTime":4167.5,"body":"awesome cleaning products."},{"startTime":4167.833,"endTime":4169.458,"body":"See, awesome wasn't on there, but I have"},{"startTime":4169.458,"endTime":4172.666,"body":"been using this stuff for ever, ever more"},{"startTime":4172.666,"endTime":4174.833,"body":"use cases, because I"},{"startTime":4174.833,"endTime":4175.833,"body":"think it's really fantastic."},{"startTime":4176.958,"endTime":4178.208,"body":"We've been using Branch Basics cleaning"},{"startTime":4178.208,"endTime":4180.041,"body":"products for many, many months now, and"},{"startTime":4180.041,"endTime":4181.208,"body":"we love them more than ever."},{"startTime":4181.416,"endTime":4182.291,"body":"They are effective,"},{"startTime":4182.5,"endTime":4184.0,"body":"non-toxic, and easy to use."},{"startTime":4184.0,"endTime":4185.125,"body":"What's more, no,"},{"startTime":4187.291,"endTime":4188.625,"body":"reading is fun, that's what I'm told."},{"startTime":4189.791,"endTime":4191.166,"body":"What more could-- No, you call it sexy."},{"startTime":4193.666,"endTime":4194.916,"body":"People who read are sexy."},{"startTime":4195.166,"endTime":4197.083,"body":"Reading is not the least bit sexy."},{"startTime":4197.125,"endTime":4198.208,"body":"Well, you've seen the T-shirts, right?"},{"startTime":4198.875,"endTime":4199.208,"body":"No."},{"startTime":4200.458,"endTime":4201.208,"body":"Are there T-shirts?"},{"startTime":4201.666,"endTime":4202.333,"body":"I didn't read them."},{"startTime":4203.166,"endTime":4203.875,"body":"There it is."},{"startTime":4204.5,"endTime":4205.041,"body":"That's the problem."},{"startTime":4205.375,"endTime":4206.833,"body":"Okay, maybe I'll get around to it later."},{"startTime":4207.083,"endTime":4208.75,"body":"I'll put it on my list of things to read."},{"startTime":4209.416,"endTime":4210.916,"body":"I am certain you will"},{"startTime":4210.916,"endTime":4213.458,"body":"put it on an existent list."},{"startTime":4213.458,"endTime":4214.25,"body":"I will put it on a list"},{"startTime":4214.25,"endTime":4215.25,"body":"that I will promptly lose."},{"startTime":4215.25,"endTime":4216.166,"body":"It will be the only thing on that list."},{"startTime":4216.208,"endTime":4217.0,"body":"You won't read the list?"},{"startTime":4217.208,"endTime":4217.416,"body":"No."},{"startTime":4218.208,"endTime":4220.791,"body":"What more, I can't read the list, that's"},{"startTime":4220.791,"endTime":4221.958,"body":"the problem half the time."},{"startTime":4222.125,"endTime":4223.125,"body":"What did I write there?"},{"startTime":4223.541,"endTime":4225.125,"body":"All right, what more could"},{"startTime":4225.125,"endTime":4226.458,"body":"you want in cleaning products?"},{"startTime":4226.458,"endTime":4229.0,"body":"We use Branch Basics in one concentration"},{"startTime":4229.0,"endTime":4230.541,"body":"for countertops and a slightly stronger"},{"startTime":4230.541,"endTime":4231.833,"body":"concentration in the shower."},{"startTime":4231.833,"endTime":4233.666,"body":"It works on practically everything you"},{"startTime":4233.666,"endTime":4235.458,"body":"need to clean, from laundry to produce."},{"startTime":4236.125,"endTime":4238.375,"body":"And when we say it works, we mean it."},{"startTime":4238.75,"endTime":4239.875,"body":"That should have an exclamation mark."},{"startTime":4241.083,"endTime":4243.083,"body":"You use cleaning products every day, but"},{"startTime":4243.083,"endTime":4243.666,"body":"do you know what you're"},{"startTime":4243.666,"endTime":4245.166,"body":"cleaning your home with?"},{"startTime":4245.166,"endTime":4246.666,"body":"How it might be affecting how you feel?"},{"startTime":4246.958,"endTime":4248.5,"body":"Many products look clean, but contain"},{"startTime":4248.5,"endTime":4250.416,"body":"ingredients like hormone disruption,"},{"startTime":4251.416,"endTime":4253.333,"body":"no, like hormone disruptors, skin"},{"startTime":4253.333,"endTime":4256.625,"body":"irritators, oh, rewiring this on the fly,"},{"startTime":4257.666,"endTime":4258.541,"body":"and things that cause"},{"startTime":4258.541,"endTime":4259.833,"body":"respiratory issues, did it."},{"startTime":4260.541,"endTime":4264.208,"body":"And because cleaning brands in the US"},{"startTime":4264.416,"endTime":4265.75,"body":"don't have to list everything they"},{"startTime":4265.75,"endTime":4266.791,"body":"contain, you don't really"},{"startTime":4266.791,"endTime":4267.791,"body":"know what's in your products."},{"startTime":4268.875,"endTime":4270.375,"body":"Branch Basics changes this with full"},{"startTime":4270.375,"endTime":4272.5,"body":"transparency, and actually it is pretty"},{"startTime":4272.5,"endTime":4273.458,"body":"fricking transparent,"},{"startTime":4274.833,"endTime":4276.458,"body":"with full transparency about their"},{"startTime":4276.458,"endTime":4280.5,"body":"entirely non-toxic ingredients."},{"startTime":4280.791,"endTime":4282.541,"body":"Their premium starter kit comes with one"},{"startTime":4282.541,"endTime":4284.0,"body":"powerful concentrate that makes"},{"startTime":4284.0,"endTime":4285.791,"body":"everything, laundry detergent, bathroom"},{"startTime":4285.791,"endTime":4287.333,"body":"cleaner, glass cleaner, even"},{"startTime":4287.333,"endTime":4288.75,"body":"pet wash and vegetable rinse."},{"startTime":4289.583,"endTime":4289.791,"body":"Pet wash?"},{"startTime":4290.375,"endTime":4290.541,"body":"What?"},{"startTime":4290.833,"endTime":4291.041,"body":"Sorry."},{"startTime":4291.958,"endTime":4292.541,"body":"It says that."},{"startTime":4292.583,"endTime":4295.416,"body":"I know, I did, just pet wash."},{"startTime":4295.416,"endTime":4297.291,"body":"Pet wash, yeah, no, and they make pet"},{"startTime":4297.291,"endTime":4298.583,"body":"wash, and it's just a different"},{"startTime":4298.583,"endTime":4299.625,"body":"concentration of the stuff."},{"startTime":4300.5,"endTime":4303.125,"body":"And vegetable rinse, just one plant and"},{"startTime":4303.125,"endTime":4304.75,"body":"mineral-based formula replaces,"},{"startTime":4307.541,"endTime":4309.083,"body":"that replaces, you're not supposed to"},{"startTime":4309.083,"endTime":4309.791,"body":"breathe whatever that"},{"startTime":4309.791,"endTime":4311.125,"body":"dust was that I just inhaled."},{"startTime":4313.0,"endTime":4315.125,"body":"Just one plant and mineral-based formula"},{"startTime":4315.125,"endTime":4317.041,"body":"replaces it all, and it's safe for"},{"startTime":4317.041,"endTime":4318.791,"body":"babies, pets, and anyone wanting to"},{"startTime":4318.791,"endTime":4321.291,"body":"reduce their daily exposure to harmful"},{"startTime":4321.291,"endTime":4322.791,"body":"chemicals in the new year, and who"},{"startTime":4322.791,"endTime":4323.333,"body":"doesn't want to"},{"startTime":4323.333,"endTime":4324.5,"body":"reduce it more than babies."},{"startTime":4325.666,"endTime":4329.875,"body":"Branch Basics ships as to, I mean, you'll"},{"startTime":4329.875,"endTime":4332.666,"body":"admit, that sentence could be read."},{"startTime":4337.5,"endTime":4339.333,"body":"I think we should get to the ads, but I"},{"startTime":4339.333,"endTime":4342.166,"body":"do intend to alert everyone after the ads"},{"startTime":4342.166,"endTime":4343.75,"body":"that we are actually not high on any"},{"startTime":4343.75,"endTime":4344.791,"body":"drugs, nor are we fasting,"},{"startTime":4345.041,"endTime":4346.041,"body":"so there's really no excuse."},{"startTime":4346.583,"endTime":4348.875,"body":"This is all indudgously generated drugs"},{"startTime":4348.875,"endTime":4350.75,"body":"that we are not responsible for, whether"},{"startTime":4350.75,"endTime":4352.083,"body":"or not the universe is deterministic."},{"startTime":4352.791,"endTime":4354.708,"body":"Branch Basics ships as two products, a"},{"startTime":4354.708,"endTime":4356.541,"body":"concentrate and an oxygen boost, and the"},{"startTime":4356.541,"endTime":4358.25,"body":"shipment includes empty bottles that you"},{"startTime":4358.25,"endTime":4358.875,"body":"fill to different"},{"startTime":4358.875,"endTime":4360.791,"body":"concentrations for different jobs."},{"startTime":4361.0,"endTime":4362.625,"body":"When you run out, all you need to do is"},{"startTime":4362.625,"endTime":4365.041,"body":"restock the two products on their site or"},{"startTime":4365.041,"endTime":4367.666,"body":"on Amazon or Target, and you're again"},{"startTime":4367.666,"endTime":4369.333,"body":"ready to clean everything in your home,"},{"startTime":4369.333,"endTime":4371.0,"body":"from laundry to bathroom to countertops,"},{"startTime":4371.541,"endTime":4373.416,"body":"bounded by three women on their own"},{"startTime":4373.416,"endTime":4375.0,"body":"personal health journeys."},{"startTime":4375.0,"endTime":4376.333,"body":"Branch Basics was created"},{"startTime":4376.333,"endTime":4377.541,"body":"out of a desire to heal."},{"startTime":4377.958,"endTime":4379.291,"body":"Through years of research, trial and"},{"startTime":4379.291,"endTime":4381.041,"body":"error, the founders discovered the"},{"startTime":4381.041,"endTime":4383.166,"body":"powerful impact that removing toxins from"},{"startTime":4383.166,"endTime":4384.875,"body":"their environment had on their health,"},{"startTime":4384.875,"endTime":4386.291,"body":"and now they're on a mission"},{"startTime":4386.291,"endTime":4387.666,"body":"to help others do the same."},{"startTime":4388.291,"endTime":4389.666,"body":"And here's more good news."},{"startTime":4390.708,"endTime":4392.416,"body":"Branch Basics is now available everywhere"},{"startTime":4392.416,"endTime":4395.125,"body":"you shop at Target, Target.com, Amazon,"},{"startTime":4395.125,"endTime":4397.0,"body":"and of course, BranchBasics.com."},{"startTime":4397.625,"endTime":4399.083,"body":"Tossing the toxins has never been more"},{"startTime":4399.083,"endTime":4401.125,"body":"convenient, and for anyone grabbing the"},{"startTime":4401.125,"endTime":4403.041,"body":"premium starter kit, you can still get"},{"startTime":4403.041,"endTime":4406.75,"body":"15% off at BranchBasics.com with, com,"},{"startTime":4407.375,"endTime":4409.416,"body":"dot com with code DarkHorse."},{"startTime":4409.833,"endTime":4412.916,"body":"Just use the code DarkHorse for 15% off"},{"startTime":4412.916,"endTime":4413.666,"body":"the premium starter"},{"startTime":4413.666,"endTime":4415.416,"body":"kit at BranchBasics.com."},{"startTime":4415.666,"endTime":4419.208,"body":"After you purchase, when they ask where"},{"startTime":4419.208,"endTime":4421.875,"body":"you heard about them, please"},{"startTime":4421.875,"endTime":4424.083,"body":"make sure to mention our show."},{"startTime":4424.083,"endTime":4425.083,"body":"That's DarkHorse, by the way."},{"startTime":4425.916,"endTime":4427.0,"body":"DarkHorse, a lesson in pronouns."},{"startTime":4428.458,"endTime":4429.333,"body":"It's a lesson in many"},{"startTime":4429.333,"endTime":4430.708,"body":"things, sometimes inadvertently."},{"startTime":4431.458,"endTime":4431.875,"body":"Is that it?"},{"startTime":4432.708,"endTime":4433.666,"body":"Or did you just put it down?"},{"startTime":4434.666,"endTime":4435.75,"body":"I'm done, I'm out."},{"startTime":4435.75,"endTime":4436.916,"body":"I think we've said it."},{"startTime":4436.916,"endTime":4438.708,"body":"I think we have made the case."},{"startTime":4439.083,"endTime":4439.708,"body":"It's good stuff."},{"startTime":4440.25,"endTime":4441.166,"body":"And oh, yeah, that can"},{"startTime":4441.166,"endTime":4442.166,"body":"go too at this point."},{"startTime":4442.458,"endTime":4444.041,"body":"I have something we gotta clean."},{"startTime":4447.375,"endTime":4450.916,"body":"So, yeah, so our three sponsors this"},{"startTime":4450.916,"endTime":4454.375,"body":"week, apologies to them if the, you know,"},{"startTime":4454.375,"endTime":4456.208,"body":"the giggling is unprofessional, but"},{"startTime":4456.208,"endTime":4458.666,"body":"really cool that two of the three"},{"startTime":4458.666,"endTime":4460.25,"body":"sponsors this week have actually made it"},{"startTime":4460.25,"endTime":4463.375,"body":"into national stores and online."},{"startTime":4463.583,"endTime":4466.166,"body":"Yeah, that's great. So Clear, XLEAR, and BranchBasics are"},{"startTime":4466.166,"endTime":4467.666,"body":"both available widely."},{"startTime":4468.416,"endTime":4470.833,"body":"VanMans is completely amazing."},{"startTime":4471.583,"endTime":4473.0,"body":"You should go to their site and you"},{"startTime":4473.0,"endTime":4475.0,"body":"should also, in their case, be aware that"},{"startTime":4475.0,"endTime":4477.5,"body":"they are doing such amazing work, Van"},{"startTime":4477.5,"endTime":4480.5,"body":"Mans, that there are not only a lot of"},{"startTime":4480.5,"endTime":4483.375,"body":"pretenders to the throne, but including a"},{"startTime":4483.375,"endTime":4485.041,"body":"site that's actually sending out a lot of"},{"startTime":4485.041,"endTime":4487.333,"body":"stuff that's like VanMans with two A's"},{"startTime":4487.333,"endTime":4488.25,"body":"in the man or something."},{"startTime":4488.375,"endTime":4490.25,"body":"And they're actually compelling people to"},{"startTime":4490.25,"endTime":4492.25,"body":"send money and they"},{"startTime":4492.25,"endTime":4493.625,"body":"never have the product."},{"startTime":4493.833,"endTime":4495.541,"body":"So make sure that you go into VanMans,"},{"startTime":4495.541,"endTime":4498.708,"body":"V-A-N-M-A-N-S, and check out Clear and"},{"startTime":4498.708,"endTime":4500.416,"body":"BranchBasics all over the place."},{"startTime":4500.708,"endTime":4501.666,"body":"God, I hate the fraudsters."},{"startTime":4502.583,"endTime":4503.0,"body":"They're everywhere."},{"startTime":4503.375,"endTime":4504.125,"body":"They are everywhere."},{"startTime":4505.0,"endTime":4507.208,"body":"Which actually is somewhat relevant to"},{"startTime":4507.208,"endTime":4510.666,"body":"our initial topic this morning, or if"},{"startTime":4510.666,"endTime":4511.5,"body":"it's afternoon for you"},{"startTime":4511.5,"endTime":4512.583,"body":"or whatever it might be."},{"startTime":4513.25,"endTime":4516.375,"body":"This discussion is about a topic that"},{"startTime":4516.375,"endTime":4518.291,"body":"sounds dry, dull, and boring, but is"},{"startTime":4518.291,"endTime":4520.0,"body":"anything but if you"},{"startTime":4520.0,"endTime":4521.375,"body":"know what we're getting at."},{"startTime":4521.375,"endTime":4523.833,"body":"It is about how to think"},{"startTime":4523.833,"endTime":4526.458,"body":"carefully about confusing events."},{"startTime":4526.708,"endTime":4530.166,"body":"And I will say, I am proud to have coined"},{"startTime":4530.166,"endTime":4531.791,"body":"the term Cartesian crisis."},{"startTime":4532.208,"endTime":4535.25,"body":"It is accelerating before our eyes."},{"startTime":4535.833,"endTime":4538.708,"body":"AI has dumped gasoline on that fire."},{"startTime":4539.041,"endTime":4541.166,"body":"It is obvious to anyone paying attention"},{"startTime":4541.541,"endTime":4543.083,"body":"that it is becoming increasingly"},{"startTime":4543.083,"endTime":4545.541,"body":"difficult to know what to believe on"},{"startTime":4545.541,"endTime":4547.041,"body":"virtually any topic."},{"startTime":4548.541,"endTime":4551.333,"body":"But let's take several steps back."},{"startTime":4551.333,"endTime":4551.583,"body":"Okay."},{"startTime":4553.0,"endTime":4555.125,"body":"The Cartesian crisis, which you named"},{"startTime":4555.125,"endTime":4557.041,"body":"after Descartes, after"},{"startTime":4557.041,"endTime":4558.291,"body":"his most famous maxim,"},{"startTime":4562.166,"endTime":4564.75,"body":"suggests that it is increasingly"},{"startTime":4564.75,"endTime":4566.833,"body":"difficult, it is difficult within a"},{"startTime":4566.833,"endTime":4567.708,"body":"Cartesian crisis to"},{"startTime":4567.708,"endTime":4569.291,"body":"know what is true, right?"},{"startTime":4569.75,"endTime":4570.791,"body":"At its most basic."},{"startTime":4572.791,"endTime":4575.083,"body":"Discovering what is true is, of course,"},{"startTime":4575.625,"endTime":4578.458,"body":"what science is about, what the"},{"startTime":4578.458,"endTime":4581.916,"body":"scientific method is formalizing with"},{"startTime":4581.916,"endTime":4584.791,"body":"regard to how it is that you think you"},{"startTime":4584.791,"endTime":4586.291,"body":"know something in the world and then"},{"startTime":4586.291,"endTime":4587.375,"body":"determine whether or not"},{"startTime":4587.375,"endTime":4588.583,"body":"it might actually be true."},{"startTime":4589.375,"endTime":4591.5,"body":"And so the tools that we're gonna be"},{"startTime":4591.5,"endTime":4592.5,"body":"talking about today,"},{"startTime":4594.0,"endTime":4596.875,"body":"with which to wade through the Cartesian"},{"startTime":4596.875,"endTime":4599.708,"body":"crisis that yes, is accelerating, and"},{"startTime":4599.708,"endTime":4601.958,"body":"there's more things in the way of"},{"startTime":4601.958,"endTime":4603.333,"body":"understanding what is true in the world"},{"startTime":4603.333,"endTime":4605.625,"body":"now than there were two years ago, 20"},{"startTime":4605.625,"endTime":4607.083,"body":"years ago, 200 years ago."},{"startTime":4607.958,"endTime":4609.25,"body":"I don't know, about 2,000 years ago."},{"startTime":4610.0,"endTime":4614.875,"body":"But at a fundamental level, figuring out"},{"startTime":4614.875,"endTime":4616.708,"body":"what you think, figuring out the complete"},{"startTime":4616.708,"endTime":4620.916,"body":"space of, yeah, I was"},{"startTime":4620.916,"endTime":4622.0,"body":"gonna say solution space."},{"startTime":4622.0,"endTime":4622.583,"body":"That doesn't quite fit."},{"startTime":4622.875,"endTime":4623.291,"body":"Solution set."},{"startTime":4623.5,"endTime":4623.875,"body":"Solution set, yeah."},{"startTime":4624.0,"endTime":4626.583,"body":"Solution set of what might be true."},{"startTime":4627.166,"endTime":4629.541,"body":"And then, and this is where we're gonna"},{"startTime":4629.541,"endTime":4631.875,"body":"go in some detail today,"},{"startTime":4633.333,"endTime":4634.208,"body":"trying to put some"},{"startTime":4634.208,"endTime":4637.0,"body":"probabilities on each of those things."},{"startTime":4637.791,"endTime":4639.583,"body":"And here's the thing where we're straying"},{"startTime":4639.666,"endTime":4640.833,"body":"from sort of formal"},{"startTime":4640.833,"endTime":4642.375,"body":"scientific thinking is"},{"startTime":4643.708,"endTime":4646.625,"body":"being real clear with yourself about what"},{"startTime":4646.625,"endTime":4648.583,"body":"you have thought in the past and when new"},{"startTime":4648.583,"endTime":4651.416,"body":"stuff comes in, be it formal evidence or"},{"startTime":4651.416,"endTime":4654.291,"body":"insight or someone told you something you"},{"startTime":4654.291,"endTime":4656.375,"body":"think might be true, modifying your"},{"startTime":4656.375,"endTime":4658.0,"body":"thoughts about what you think is true and"},{"startTime":4658.0,"endTime":4659.958,"body":"keeping track of what you have thought."},{"startTime":4660.666,"endTime":4662.5,"body":"And that is how we become more and more"},{"startTime":4662.5,"endTime":4664.458,"body":"honest with ourselves and better and"},{"startTime":4664.458,"endTime":4665.541,"body":"better at actually"},{"startTime":4665.541,"endTime":4667.416,"body":"determining what is true in the world."},{"startTime":4667.666,"endTime":4670.291,"body":"Right, and if I can revise that slightly"},{"startTime":4670.291,"endTime":4672.041,"body":"or just look at it from"},{"startTime":4672.041,"endTime":4672.916,"body":"a different perspective,"},{"startTime":4674.833,"endTime":4676.25,"body":"if you're doing the job right at all,"},{"startTime":4676.833,"endTime":4677.958,"body":"what you think is likely to"},{"startTime":4677.958,"endTime":4679.666,"body":"be true changes over time."},{"startTime":4680.458,"endTime":4682.875,"body":"When something changes substantially over"},{"startTime":4682.875,"endTime":4685.666,"body":"time, when a viewpoint that you once held"},{"startTime":4685.666,"endTime":4689.708,"body":"flips on its head, understanding what it"},{"startTime":4689.708,"endTime":4691.958,"body":"is that you might have seen ahead of"},{"startTime":4691.958,"endTime":4693.958,"body":"time, so that if assuming that we get"},{"startTime":4693.958,"endTime":4695.791,"body":"smarter over time, which hopefully we do,"},{"startTime":4697.083,"endTime":4698.916,"body":"that the indicators that"},{"startTime":4698.916,"endTime":4700.5,"body":"you missed the first time"},{"startTime":4701.625,"endTime":4703.0,"body":"are available to you when you"},{"startTime":4703.0,"endTime":4705.208,"body":"are facing a similar analysis."},{"startTime":4705.5,"endTime":4706.458,"body":"So just to take one"},{"startTime":4706.458,"endTime":4708.0,"body":"example from our painful history,"},{"startTime":4709.083,"endTime":4713.75,"body":"we, at the beginning of the COVID vaccine"},{"startTime":4713.75,"endTime":4716.125,"body":"campaign, spotted the vaccines as"},{"startTime":4716.125,"endTime":4718.166,"body":"dangerous from the get-go."},{"startTime":4718.375,"endTime":4719.541,"body":"There was never a minute when we didn't"},{"startTime":4719.541,"endTime":4721.0,"body":"think the vaccines that were being"},{"startTime":4721.0,"endTime":4721.916,"body":"offered were dangerous."},{"startTime":4722.5,"endTime":4725.208,"body":"We did not immediately spot that the"},{"startTime":4725.208,"endTime":4726.416,"body":"claims about their"},{"startTime":4726.416,"endTime":4728.75,"body":"efficacy were likely fraudulent."},{"startTime":4730.416,"endTime":4733.208,"body":"From there, you and I ended up"},{"startTime":4733.208,"endTime":4736.041,"body":"reinvestigating our understanding of the"},{"startTime":4736.041,"endTime":4738.666,"body":"vaccines that we had authorized our own"},{"startTime":4738.666,"endTime":4741.5,"body":"children to get, that we had gotten and"},{"startTime":4741.5,"endTime":4743.25,"body":"realized that there were--"},{"startTime":4743.541,"endTime":4744.291,"body":"Actual vaccines, not"},{"startTime":4744.291,"endTime":4745.5,"body":"the mRNA coming products."},{"startTime":4745.541,"endTime":4747.25,"body":"Not the stuff that's called vaccines, but"},{"startTime":4747.25,"endTime":4749.833,"body":"it's really an mRNA-based gene therapy."},{"startTime":4750.375,"endTime":4753.0,"body":"But actual regular old vaccines for which"},{"startTime":4753.0,"endTime":4756.458,"body":"we had been strong champions, turned out"},{"startTime":4756.458,"endTime":4760.875,"body":"not to be nearly as safe as we had"},{"startTime":4760.875,"endTime":4763.0,"body":"imagined, because, and here's"},{"startTime":4763.0,"endTime":4765.875,"body":"the lesson, is what did I miss?"},{"startTime":4767.0,"endTime":4770.75,"body":"I missed that work that I would have told"},{"startTime":4770.75,"endTime":4773.541,"body":"you I was essentially certain had been"},{"startTime":4773.541,"endTime":4775.458,"body":"done was never done."},{"startTime":4775.958,"endTime":4778.208,"body":"The test against the placebo, the test on"},{"startTime":4778.208,"endTime":4784.458,"body":"all-cause mortality and disease in"},{"startTime":4784.458,"endTime":4786.958,"body":"vaccinated versus unvaccinated children"},{"startTime":4787.333,"endTime":4789.791,"body":"was not what the recommendation from"},{"startTime":4789.791,"endTime":4791.083,"body":"doctors was based on,"},{"startTime":4791.208,"endTime":4791.958,"body":"not in the slightest."},{"startTime":4792.166,"endTime":4794.083,"body":"And where that evidence did exist, it"},{"startTime":4794.083,"endTime":4794.833,"body":"told a different story."},{"startTime":4795.541,"endTime":4797.208,"body":"So what did I miss?"},{"startTime":4797.958,"endTime":4802.25,"body":"I was too credulous about the implication"},{"startTime":4803.0,"endTime":4805.041,"body":"that work that seems like it should have"},{"startTime":4805.041,"endTime":4806.916,"body":"been done must have been, right?"},{"startTime":4806.916,"endTime":4808.5,"body":"I needed to investigate whether the work"},{"startTime":4808.5,"endTime":4810.333,"body":"was actually done, which is arduous,"},{"startTime":4810.333,"endTime":4812.791,"body":"which is probably why, it's natural to"},{"startTime":4812.791,"endTime":4815.958,"body":"assume we have an FDA, everything that's"},{"startTime":4815.958,"endTime":4817.291,"body":"coming from a doctor,"},{"startTime":4817.583,"endTime":4818.958,"body":"presumably was safety tested."},{"startTime":4819.208,"endTime":4820.958,"body":"I have reason to be concerned about the"},{"startTime":4820.958,"endTime":4822.791,"body":"safety test, but I never had reason to be"},{"startTime":4822.791,"endTime":4824.416,"body":"concerned that they weren't done because"},{"startTime":4824.416,"endTime":4825.166,"body":"of course they were."},{"startTime":4825.166,"endTime":4826.125,"body":"And then it turns out"},{"startTime":4826.125,"endTime":4827.166,"body":"that assumption isn't right."},{"startTime":4827.916,"endTime":4828.125,"body":"Yeah,"},{"startTime":4829.291,"endTime":4831.25,"body":"I finally went looking explicitly."},{"startTime":4832.5,"endTime":4834.083,"body":"I guess it's probably two, two and a"},{"startTime":4834.083,"endTime":4836.041,"body":"half, three years ago at this point and"},{"startTime":4836.041,"endTime":4837.25,"body":"published it on my substack."},{"startTime":4838.458,"endTime":4840.791,"body":"And because by then we were hearing from"},{"startTime":4840.791,"endTime":4844.291,"body":"so many people, look into it, the"},{"startTime":4844.291,"endTime":4845.666,"body":"vaccines and the childhood vaccine"},{"startTime":4845.666,"endTime":4847.5,"body":"schedule have not in fact been tested"},{"startTime":4847.5,"endTime":4848.916,"body":"against actual placebo."},{"startTime":4849.125,"endTime":4851.333,"body":"And by actual placebo, I mean placebo."},{"startTime":4852.5,"endTime":4856.041,"body":"So not only, for many, many, many years,"},{"startTime":4856.25,"endTime":4857.708,"body":"we've been running into this, you know,"},{"startTime":4857.708,"endTime":4859.333,"body":"bait and switch where they use a word"},{"startTime":4859.333,"endTime":4861.375,"body":"that has a meaning and they take it and"},{"startTime":4861.375,"endTime":4862.291,"body":"they change its meaning, but"},{"startTime":4862.291,"endTime":4863.333,"body":"they leave the word the same."},{"startTime":4863.666,"endTime":4865.0,"body":"And you think you're talking about a"},{"startTime":4865.0,"endTime":4865.958,"body":"placebo and you're not."},{"startTime":4866.791,"endTime":4869.875,"body":"But I would say also that our"},{"startTime":4869.875,"endTime":4871.75,"body":"understanding of the so-called"},{"startTime":4871.75,"endTime":4873.833,"body":"traditional vaccines, again, we're not no"},{"startTime":4873.833,"endTime":4876.458,"body":"longer talking about the mRNA, you know,"},{"startTime":4876.458,"endTime":4877.875,"body":"gene therapy products that were tried out"},{"startTime":4877.875,"endTime":4881.5,"body":"and called vaccines in response to COVID."},{"startTime":4882.541,"endTime":4887.458,"body":"Not only are they not safe as we had been"},{"startTime":4887.458,"endTime":4889.916,"body":"led to believe by virtue of the fact that"},{"startTime":4889.916,"endTime":4891.25,"body":"it seemed like they must have"},{"startTime":4891.25,"endTime":4893.458,"body":"been tested against placebo,"},{"startTime":4894.583,"endTime":4898.208,"body":"but their claims of efficacy are also, I"},{"startTime":4898.208,"endTime":4900.708,"body":"want to say suspect to be sort of nice,"},{"startTime":4900.875,"endTime":4902.666,"body":"but suspect is wrong as well, because"},{"startTime":4902.666,"endTime":4905.666,"body":"when you actually see the, you know, the"},{"startTime":4905.666,"endTime":4910.0,"body":"changes in, well, you know, relative to"},{"startTime":4910.0,"endTime":4912.333,"body":"the ad that we just read for clear, you"},{"startTime":4912.333,"endTime":4915.333,"body":"know, changes in air quality and water"},{"startTime":4915.333,"endTime":4921.333,"body":"quality precede the breakout, the release"},{"startTime":4921.333,"endTime":4923.208,"body":"of vaccines for many diseases."},{"startTime":4923.833,"endTime":4925.916,"body":"And it is between those two moments,"},{"startTime":4925.958,"endTime":4927.541,"body":"after air and water quality have been"},{"startTime":4927.541,"endTime":4929.458,"body":"improved and before the vaccines are"},{"startTime":4929.458,"endTime":4931.375,"body":"released, that the declines in the"},{"startTime":4931.375,"endTime":4935.0,"body":"diseases take a sharp decline, which"},{"startTime":4935.0,"endTime":4937.458,"body":"right there is a"},{"startTime":4937.458,"endTime":4938.458,"body":"substantial piece of evidence."},{"startTime":4939.25,"endTime":4941.416,"body":"But so you change your"},{"startTime":4941.416,"endTime":4943.25,"body":"mind as you learn new things."},{"startTime":4943.25,"endTime":4944.791,"body":"That is what it is to be human, that is"},{"startTime":4944.791,"endTime":4947.958,"body":"what it is to be a functioning individual"},{"startTime":4948.166,"endTime":4950.083,"body":"in a world, and it is more and more"},{"startTime":4950.083,"endTime":4952.958,"body":"difficult to do as what we imagine is"},{"startTime":4952.958,"endTime":4955.666,"body":"eyewitness, especially on screens, is not"},{"startTime":4955.666,"endTime":4956.375,"body":"actually eyewitness."},{"startTime":4956.75,"endTime":4958.25,"body":"We are seeing things that are already"},{"startTime":4958.25,"endTime":4959.875,"body":"curated, that may be fabricated, that may"},{"startTime":4959.875,"endTime":4961.375,"body":"not be coming from humans at all,"},{"startTime":4962.375,"endTime":4964.166,"body":"but it is even if we are actually seeing"},{"startTime":4964.166,"endTime":4968.25,"body":"things, we have been so confused by the,"},{"startTime":4968.25,"endTime":4969.583,"body":"you know, the nature of our very"},{"startTime":4969.583,"endTime":4971.916,"body":"existence, the complexity and complicated"},{"startTime":4971.916,"endTime":4974.083,"body":"nature of our very existence that it is"},{"startTime":4974.083,"endTime":4975.75,"body":"harder and harder to trust ourselves to"},{"startTime":4975.75,"endTime":4976.583,"body":"do our own analysis."},{"startTime":4976.958,"endTime":4979.458,"body":"And so in part, in service of that,"},{"startTime":4980.708,"endTime":4983.833,"body":"you have sort of formalized a way of"},{"startTime":4983.833,"endTime":4988.041,"body":"thinking about intuition and logic and"},{"startTime":4988.041,"endTime":4989.916,"body":"the relationship between them."},{"startTime":4990.125,"endTime":4992.708,"body":"Yep, and I wanna pick one more thing from"},{"startTime":4992.708,"endTime":4994.75,"body":"that conversation before we launch into"},{"startTime":4994.75,"endTime":4995.875,"body":"the demonstration of"},{"startTime":4995.875,"endTime":4998.5,"body":"the method such as it is."},{"startTime":4999.708,"endTime":5002.458,"body":"Back when you and I were enthusiasts of"},{"startTime":5002.458,"endTime":5004.416,"body":"the vaccines that came from"},{"startTime":5004.416,"endTime":5006.291,"body":"doctors, we were not naive."},{"startTime":5006.875,"endTime":5008.458,"body":"Well, turned out we were naive relative"},{"startTime":5008.666,"endTime":5010.625,"body":"to what was actually going on, but we"},{"startTime":5010.625,"endTime":5013.083,"body":"were not naive about the likelihood that"},{"startTime":5013.083,"endTime":5014.5,"body":"there was a real danger with these"},{"startTime":5014.5,"endTime":5018.125,"body":"things, which actually caused us to"},{"startTime":5018.125,"endTime":5022.0,"body":"accept the idea that there were people,"},{"startTime":5023.208,"endTime":5025.875,"body":"anti-vaxxers, who were actually motivated"},{"startTime":5025.875,"endTime":5028.875,"body":"by an instinct to cheat."},{"startTime":5029.083,"endTime":5030.75,"body":"Now, in this case, it would have been an"},{"startTime":5030.75,"endTime":5032.791,"body":"instinct to cheat on behalf of their"},{"startTime":5032.791,"endTime":5034.0,"body":"children, which is understandable."},{"startTime":5034.916,"endTime":5037.583,"body":"But the idea is there's a game theory"},{"startTime":5037.583,"endTime":5040.541,"body":"reason that given a vaccine that has to"},{"startTime":5040.541,"endTime":5042.75,"body":"be given to a wide number of people in"},{"startTime":5042.75,"endTime":5045.541,"body":"order to halt the spread of a disease,"},{"startTime":5046.708,"endTime":5050.416,"body":"that an individual who doesn't administer"},{"startTime":5050.416,"endTime":5053.625,"body":"that vaccine gets the advantage of other"},{"startTime":5053.625,"endTime":5055.666,"body":"people having taken a tiny risk"},{"startTime":5056.791,"endTime":5058.791,"body":"without taking that tiny risk themselves."},{"startTime":5058.791,"endTime":5061.0,"body":"So there is a freeloader problem in"},{"startTime":5061.0,"endTime":5062.625,"body":"theory when it comes"},{"startTime":5062.625,"endTime":5063.916,"body":"to the idea of vaccines."},{"startTime":5063.916,"endTime":5066.333,"body":"If you had good vaccines with very low"},{"startTime":5066.333,"endTime":5068.0,"body":"risks, that game theory"},{"startTime":5068.0,"endTime":5069.375,"body":"problem would be real."},{"startTime":5069.916,"endTime":5072.166,"body":"It happens that the risks are much"},{"startTime":5072.166,"endTime":5074.875,"body":"greater than represented and the game"},{"startTime":5074.875,"endTime":5076.708,"body":"theory is not what's motivating most of"},{"startTime":5076.708,"endTime":5078.916,"body":"these people who have been"},{"startTime":5078.916,"endTime":5080.5,"body":"wrongly called anti-vaxxers."},{"startTime":5080.75,"endTime":5083.625,"body":"Most of them, I would say from now having"},{"startTime":5083.625,"endTime":5085.208,"body":"met probably thousands,"},{"startTime":5086.666,"endTime":5087.833,"body":"what's, you don't think?"},{"startTime":5088.583,"endTime":5089.458,"body":"I doubt it, but."},{"startTime":5090.791,"endTime":5091.708,"body":"Certainly hundreds."},{"startTime":5091.875,"endTime":5092.458,"body":"Sure, absolutely."},{"startTime":5093.833,"endTime":5097.458,"body":"Or have been exposed to, it's a lot."},{"startTime":5097.75,"endTime":5099.25,"body":"You know, you go to a CHD conference,"},{"startTime":5100.083,"endTime":5100.958,"body":"it's a lot of people."},{"startTime":5101.5,"endTime":5103.708,"body":"But anyway, most of them are motivated by"},{"startTime":5103.708,"endTime":5107.666,"body":"having a close encounter with injury,"},{"startTime":5107.916,"endTime":5110.166,"body":"either themselves or their children or"},{"startTime":5110.166,"endTime":5111.833,"body":"somebody's children that they know."},{"startTime":5112.625,"endTime":5113.833,"body":"And then they get derided as"},{"startTime":5113.833,"endTime":5117.208,"body":"anti-vaxxers, which is ironic because so"},{"startTime":5117.208,"endTime":5120.416,"body":"many of them got there through being too"},{"startTime":5120.416,"endTime":5122.083,"body":"credulous about the safety of these"},{"startTime":5122.083,"endTime":5125.541,"body":"things and then having bad luck with"},{"startTime":5125.541,"endTime":5126.458,"body":"respect to what happened."},{"startTime":5127.375,"endTime":5130.125,"body":"Well, and so this isn't exactly about"},{"startTime":5130.125,"endTime":5135.041,"body":"where we're going here, but if your child"},{"startTime":5135.041,"endTime":5137.708,"body":"began to regress within a week of getting"},{"startTime":5137.708,"endTime":5139.541,"body":"a vaccine and you saw it with your own"},{"startTime":5139.541,"endTime":5141.416,"body":"eyes and your child is no longer"},{"startTime":5141.416,"endTime":5143.208,"body":"accessible to you and may never be again,"},{"startTime":5144.708,"endTime":5147.25,"body":"no amount of being called names is going"},{"startTime":5147.25,"endTime":5149.0,"body":"to change your mind, right?"},{"startTime":5149.0,"endTime":5151.416,"body":"That's not a position that you can be"},{"startTime":5151.416,"endTime":5154.958,"body":"talked out of through social"},{"startTime":5154.958,"endTime":5157.625,"body":"coercion and shaming techniques."},{"startTime":5159.208,"endTime":5162.666,"body":"And so in a way, the group of people in"},{"startTime":5162.666,"endTime":5164.833,"body":"particular, the parents whose children"},{"startTime":5164.833,"endTime":5166.875,"body":"have been vaccine injured, of which there"},{"startTime":5166.875,"endTime":5170.0,"body":"are certainly many, tens of thousands"},{"startTime":5170.0,"endTime":5172.125,"body":"perhaps, I don't know how many, but I'm"},{"startTime":5172.125,"endTime":5173.166,"body":"not claiming to have met"},{"startTime":5173.166,"endTime":5175.5,"body":"most of these people, but many,"},{"startTime":5177.0,"endTime":5184.041,"body":"are staunch and unflinching in the face"},{"startTime":5184.041,"endTime":5188.125,"body":"of scorn because they know what they saw"},{"startTime":5188.125,"endTime":5190.0,"body":"and they know what their lives are and"},{"startTime":5190.0,"endTime":5191.0,"body":"they know what they have experienced."},{"startTime":5192.25,"endTime":5195.583,"body":"When the stakes are lower or more nuanced"},{"startTime":5195.583,"endTime":5198.708,"body":"or it's not really clear what you might"},{"startTime":5198.708,"endTime":5201.625,"body":"do, like why you're on this side of the"},{"startTime":5201.625,"endTime":5203.708,"body":"issue and sure that's true, but wouldn't"},{"startTime":5203.708,"endTime":5204.541,"body":"it be easier for you"},{"startTime":5204.541,"endTime":5205.25,"body":"if you were over here?"},{"startTime":5205.625,"endTime":5208.416,"body":"A lot of people take the easier path. A lot of people take the easier path."},{"startTime":5208.791,"endTime":5209.541,"body":"I'm like, you know what?"},{"startTime":5209.541,"endTime":5211.166,"body":"Yeah, I know it's true."},{"startTime":5211.166,"endTime":5213.333,"body":"I know A is true, but if I"},{"startTime":5213.333,"endTime":5215.166,"body":"stand up, I'm gonna get shot."},{"startTime":5215.5,"endTime":5217.0,"body":"Like I just, it's not worth it."},{"startTime":5217.208,"endTime":5219.375,"body":"So I'm gonna be silent or I'm gonna"},{"startTime":5219.375,"endTime":5222.583,"body":"actually be really cowardly and craven"},{"startTime":5222.75,"endTime":5224.791,"body":"and speak a truth, speak something that I"},{"startTime":5224.791,"endTime":5227.291,"body":"know not to be true and thus keep my job"},{"startTime":5227.291,"endTime":5229.541,"body":"or keep my social standing or keep my"},{"startTime":5229.541,"endTime":5231.875,"body":"bowling group, whatever it is."},{"startTime":5232.666,"endTime":5236.25,"body":"And those are the people who we have been"},{"startTime":5236.25,"endTime":5239.75,"body":"speaking to a lot since Evergreen, right?"},{"startTime":5239.75,"endTime":5240.916,"body":"Where they're like, oh my God, how did"},{"startTime":5240.916,"endTime":5242.5,"body":"you stand up to the crowd?"},{"startTime":5242.5,"endTime":5242.875,"body":"It's like, well, what"},{"startTime":5242.875,"endTime":5243.666,"body":"else was I gonna do?"},{"startTime":5244.666,"endTime":5246.583,"body":"And not only what else was I gonna do,"},{"startTime":5246.583,"endTime":5248.0,"body":"but once you're on the other side of it,"},{"startTime":5248.0,"endTime":5249.625,"body":"once you have, to use the phrase that we"},{"startTime":5249.625,"endTime":5251.166,"body":"have been using since then, gone through"},{"startTime":5251.166,"endTime":5252.125,"body":"the looking glass around the"},{"startTime":5252.125,"endTime":5253.375,"body":"other side, you're like, huh."},{"startTime":5254.083,"endTime":5255.291,"body":"Well, that was actually kind"},{"startTime":5255.291,"endTime":5257.458,"body":"of easy to survive actually."},{"startTime":5258.375,"endTime":5260.291,"body":"And isn't it nice to be able to sleep"},{"startTime":5260.291,"endTime":5262.125,"body":"well at night and to wake up in the"},{"startTime":5262.125,"endTime":5264.5,"body":"morning and say, well, I continue to seek"},{"startTime":5264.5,"endTime":5266.333,"body":"truth and I'm gonna be wrong sometimes"},{"startTime":5266.625,"endTime":5268.166,"body":"and I'm gonna make some mistakes and I'm"},{"startTime":5268.166,"endTime":5269.041,"body":"gonna own them and I'm"},{"startTime":5269.041,"endTime":5270.416,"body":"gonna speak about them too."},{"startTime":5271.041,"endTime":5272.916,"body":"And hopefully we are just collecting"},{"startTime":5272.916,"endTime":5276.0,"body":"people on a journey interested in"},{"startTime":5276.0,"endTime":5276.916,"body":"discovering truth and"},{"startTime":5276.916,"endTime":5277.833,"body":"beauty in the world."},{"startTime":5278.208,"endTime":5280.666,"body":"And that is what we are trying to do."},{"startTime":5281.041,"endTime":5284.5,"body":"And, but most people with a few"},{"startTime":5284.5,"endTime":5286.5,"body":"exceptions, like if you've literally seen"},{"startTime":5286.5,"endTime":5289.666,"body":"your child regress after getting a"},{"startTime":5289.666,"endTime":5291.416,"body":"medical intervention and you're being"},{"startTime":5291.416,"endTime":5292.541,"body":"told it wasn't that,"},{"startTime":5292.541,"endTime":5293.833,"body":"you're like, I'm sorry it was."},{"startTime":5294.541,"endTime":5297.291,"body":"So then that most people will not"},{"startTime":5297.291,"endTime":5298.666,"body":"continue to stand up for what they"},{"startTime":5298.666,"endTime":5299.625,"body":"understand to be true."},{"startTime":5300.25,"endTime":5301.25,"body":"No, the particular"},{"startTime":5301.25,"endTime":5303.0,"body":"detail that causes you,"},{"startTime":5304.25,"endTime":5306.416,"body":"the curtain gets pulled back at the point"},{"startTime":5306.416,"endTime":5308.0,"body":"that you've witnessed this extraordinary"},{"startTime":5308.0,"endTime":5308.833,"body":"thing that nobody"},{"startTime":5308.833,"endTime":5310.25,"body":"warned you was a possibility."},{"startTime":5311.166,"endTime":5312.041,"body":"And then the doctor"},{"startTime":5312.041,"endTime":5313.625,"body":"tells you it didn't happen."},{"startTime":5315.0,"endTime":5317.166,"body":"So the point is, oh, what did I just"},{"startTime":5317.166,"endTime":5318.041,"body":"learn about doctors,"},{"startTime":5319.166,"endTime":5321.5,"body":"too late to help my own child, right?"},{"startTime":5321.5,"endTime":5322.291,"body":"That is an amazing,"},{"startTime":5322.958,"endTime":5324.333,"body":"it's the ultimate red pill."},{"startTime":5326.5,"endTime":5331.583,"body":"So to set us in motion, let's just say a"},{"startTime":5331.583,"endTime":5335.125,"body":"big part of the motivation for what we're"},{"startTime":5335.125,"endTime":5340.083,"body":"about to do is that people are very bad"},{"startTime":5340.083,"endTime":5344.791,"body":"at separating the social phenomenon"},{"startTime":5344.791,"endTime":5349.416,"body":"involved in sense-making and collectively"},{"startTime":5349.416,"endTime":5351.333,"body":"deciding what is actually taking place"},{"startTime":5352.041,"endTime":5352.875,"body":"from the analytical."},{"startTime":5353.75,"endTime":5356.583,"body":"And I think one strength that we have is"},{"startTime":5357.416,"endTime":5358.458,"body":"we know that those"},{"startTime":5358.458,"endTime":5360.208,"body":"things have no relationship."},{"startTime":5360.708,"endTime":5362.791,"body":"You can literally be the only person on"},{"startTime":5362.791,"endTime":5364.666,"body":"earth who believes something is true."},{"startTime":5365.166,"endTime":5366.25,"body":"Everyone can be screaming"},{"startTime":5366.25,"endTime":5367.541,"body":"at you that it's not true."},{"startTime":5367.791,"endTime":5369.333,"body":"And it says nothing one way or the other"},{"startTime":5369.416,"endTime":5371.083,"body":"about whether or not you're right."},{"startTime":5371.666,"endTime":5376.166,"body":"And the pointy-headed folks will come"},{"startTime":5376.166,"endTime":5377.666,"body":"back at you and say, \"Well, you're"},{"startTime":5377.666,"endTime":5379.541,"body":"dismissing quite a few experts.\""},{"startTime":5379.916,"endTime":5381.208,"body":"And the point is, yeah, but I've also"},{"startTime":5381.208,"endTime":5382.666,"body":"seen what happens to experts."},{"startTime":5382.916,"endTime":5386.958,"body":"And the fact is the economic milieu of"},{"startTime":5386.958,"endTime":5389.333,"body":"experts and the social coercion that they"},{"startTime":5389.333,"endTime":5391.75,"body":"face, it doesn't mean that expertise is"},{"startTime":5391.75,"endTime":5393.75,"body":"impossible, but it means that actually"},{"startTime":5393.75,"endTime":5395.458,"body":"the places that you would expect it to"},{"startTime":5395.458,"endTime":5398.416,"body":"exist, it has often been poisoned by a"},{"startTime":5398.416,"endTime":5400.041,"body":"kind of coercion that you're just not"},{"startTime":5400.041,"endTime":5402.333,"body":"able to see because you're not present."},{"startTime":5402.583,"endTime":5405.083,"body":"So the coercion that causes doctors to"},{"startTime":5405.083,"endTime":5407.5,"body":"embrace dangerous therapies, the coercion"},{"startTime":5407.5,"endTime":5411.416,"body":"that causes the Congress to immunize"},{"startTime":5411.416,"endTime":5414.666,"body":"vaccine manufacturing companies, all of"},{"startTime":5414.666,"endTime":5417.791,"body":"these things are systems of pressure that"},{"startTime":5417.791,"endTime":5420.083,"body":"have nothing to do with analysis that you"},{"startTime":5420.083,"endTime":5423.458,"body":"can't see or easily even infer unless"},{"startTime":5423.458,"endTime":5424.916,"body":"somebody takes you on a tour."},{"startTime":5426.166,"endTime":5429.666,"body":"So the question is how, when very"},{"startTime":5429.666,"endTime":5430.708,"body":"frequently, especially if"},{"startTime":5430.708,"endTime":5431.708,"body":"there's anything at stake,"},{"startTime":5432.75,"endTime":5435.541,"body":"you are being pressured into accepting an"},{"startTime":5435.541,"endTime":5438.875,"body":"analytical conclusion for social reasons"},{"startTime":5439.125,"endTime":5440.875,"body":"or out of fear, right?"},{"startTime":5441.291,"endTime":5444.958,"body":"How do you deal with the analytic part to"},{"startTime":5444.958,"endTime":5446.708,"body":"separate it from the social phenomenon?"},{"startTime":5449.083,"endTime":5451.541,"body":"It occurs to me hearing you talk that one"},{"startTime":5451.541,"endTime":5453.5,"body":"of the reasons I keep on insisting in our"},{"startTime":5453.5,"endTime":5455.666,"body":"private conversations and here as well,"},{"startTime":5455.875,"endTime":5457.291,"body":"I'm sort of dragging it back to like,"},{"startTime":5457.333,"endTime":5458.625,"body":"remember, we're talking about science,"},{"startTime":5458.625,"endTime":5460.0,"body":"this is what science is,"},{"startTime":5461.5,"endTime":5467.083,"body":"I think in school, when people are taught"},{"startTime":5467.083,"endTime":5469.458,"body":"science, this is the process that they"},{"startTime":5469.458,"endTime":5470.375,"body":"should be being taught."},{"startTime":5471.208,"endTime":5473.875,"body":"Not what the Krebs cycle is, not what PCR"},{"startTime":5473.875,"endTime":5476.333,"body":"is, like whatever the"},{"startTime":5476.333,"endTime":5477.958,"body":"particulars are, that's great."},{"startTime":5478.666,"endTime":5480.791,"body":"Those are the products of science."},{"startTime":5481.041,"endTime":5482.458,"body":"That's not the science itself."},{"startTime":5482.791,"endTime":5485.541,"body":"Everyone has the capacity to, and"},{"startTime":5485.541,"endTime":5487.583,"body":"frankly, the obligation to themselves and"},{"startTime":5487.583,"endTime":5489.208,"body":"to society, but especially to themselves,"},{"startTime":5489.5,"endTime":5491.5,"body":"to be able to think scientifically, and"},{"startTime":5491.5,"endTime":5494.5,"body":"those of us who actually understood that"},{"startTime":5494.5,"endTime":5497.291,"body":"we were training ourselves in formal"},{"startTime":5497.291,"endTime":5502.541,"body":"scientific analysis are more able to take"},{"startTime":5502.541,"endTime":5504.75,"body":"that analysis out into the world that is"},{"startTime":5504.75,"endTime":5507.375,"body":"social and say, well, okay, if you claim"},{"startTime":5507.375,"endTime":5508.041,"body":"this and this person"},{"startTime":5508.041,"endTime":5510.0,"body":"claims this, how would I know?"},{"startTime":5510.416,"endTime":5511.5,"body":"How would I make the determination?"},{"startTime":5511.708,"endTime":5513.0,"body":"I'm gonna use the same tools I'm used to"},{"startTime":5513.0,"endTime":5516.25,"body":"using and the tools that I'm used to"},{"startTime":5516.25,"endTime":5518.833,"body":"using I honed over in a totally unsocial"},{"startTime":5518.833,"endTime":5521.125,"body":"apolitical space where it was poison"},{"startTime":5521.125,"endTime":5523.125,"body":"frogs in Madagascar, or it was tent"},{"startTime":5523.125,"endTime":5524.666,"body":"making bats in Panama."},{"startTime":5524.666,"endTime":5525.875,"body":"Where there's very little at stake."},{"startTime":5526.166,"endTime":5529.166,"body":"And right, the bats care, the frogs care,"},{"startTime":5529.166,"endTime":5529.958,"body":"but they don't care"},{"startTime":5529.958,"endTime":5531.0,"body":"about our answers regardless."},{"startTime":5531.916,"endTime":5535.875,"body":"Our answers make sense or are important"},{"startTime":5536.583,"endTime":5539.208,"body":"in terms of whether or not what we know"},{"startTime":5539.208,"endTime":5540.75,"body":"to be true is true, but"},{"startTime":5540.75,"endTime":5544.416,"body":"there is no greater stakes."},{"startTime":5545.375,"endTime":5548.791,"body":"And so would we take that analytical"},{"startTime":5548.791,"endTime":5550.208,"body":"stuff into the social world?"},{"startTime":5550.5,"endTime":5551.5,"body":"It seems to some people"},{"startTime":5551.5,"endTime":5553.916,"body":"like it's unemotional."},{"startTime":5554.5,"endTime":5555.875,"body":"This is what scientists have a reputation"},{"startTime":5555.875,"endTime":5559.375,"body":"for being like, well, everyone should be"},{"startTime":5559.375,"endTime":5562.5,"body":"able to move the emotional valence, the"},{"startTime":5562.5,"endTime":5565.0,"body":"social valence out of a space where"},{"startTime":5565.0,"endTime":5565.458,"body":"they're trying to make"},{"startTime":5565.458,"endTime":5567.791,"body":"decisions and say, how would I know?"},{"startTime":5568.208,"endTime":5569.0,"body":"That is the question."},{"startTime":5569.416,"endTime":5570.083,"body":"How would I know?"},{"startTime":5570.75,"endTime":5571.791,"body":"What do I think?"},{"startTime":5572.25,"endTime":5573.208,"body":"Why do I think it?"},{"startTime":5573.916,"endTime":5574.875,"body":"And what would have to be"},{"startTime":5574.875,"endTime":5576.208,"body":"true in order to change my mind?"},{"startTime":5576.666,"endTime":5576.875,"body":"Yep."},{"startTime":5577.833,"endTime":5580.291,"body":"And if you think about your own history"},{"startTime":5580.291,"endTime":5582.666,"body":"as a viewer, you will recognize that"},{"startTime":5582.666,"endTime":5585.125,"body":"there are many topics in which you"},{"startTime":5585.125,"endTime":5586.875,"body":"probably now believe something that you"},{"startTime":5586.875,"endTime":5588.375,"body":"would at one time have thought crazy."},{"startTime":5588.958,"endTime":5592.041,"body":"And so what that tells you is that you"},{"startTime":5592.041,"endTime":5594.291,"body":"may be told you're crazy right now for"},{"startTime":5594.291,"endTime":5595.5,"body":"things that one day you"},{"startTime":5595.5,"endTime":5596.833,"body":"will take to be self-evident."},{"startTime":5597.208,"endTime":5599.125,"body":"So knowing that that pattern is there,"},{"startTime":5599.5,"endTime":5604.125,"body":"arming yourself with a explicit toolkit"},{"startTime":5604.458,"endTime":5607.291,"body":"for sorting out these various things and"},{"startTime":5607.291,"endTime":5609.458,"body":"not being persuaded by a chorus of people"},{"startTime":5609.458,"endTime":5611.958,"body":"telling you, you're crazy is important."},{"startTime":5612.333,"endTime":5617.791,"body":"So in light of this, I decided to run an"},{"startTime":5617.791,"endTime":5619.875,"body":"experiment this week."},{"startTime":5621.5,"endTime":5624.916,"body":"I have heard a lot about how excellent AI"},{"startTime":5624.916,"endTime":5626.5,"body":"tools are at coding."},{"startTime":5627.041,"endTime":5629.583,"body":"I have a minimal history of coding."},{"startTime":5629.625,"endTime":5630.208,"body":"I took a college"},{"startTime":5630.208,"endTime":5634.291,"body":"course in the 90s on C plus."},{"startTime":5634.958,"endTime":5636.5,"body":"I've done a little Arduino programming,"},{"startTime":5636.958,"endTime":5639.166,"body":"but the idea of being able to tell an AI"},{"startTime":5639.625,"endTime":5642.708,"body":"that you want something and have it"},{"startTime":5642.708,"endTime":5644.791,"body":"produce that something seemed frankly"},{"startTime":5644.791,"endTime":5646.416,"body":"pretty unlikely to work."},{"startTime":5646.416,"endTime":5648.0,"body":"I didn't know what was going to happen."},{"startTime":5648.0,"endTime":5650.041,"body":"So I set about trying to create a"},{"startTime":5650.041,"endTime":5651.916,"body":"replacement for a program you and I once"},{"startTime":5651.916,"endTime":5653.333,"body":"had, but not exactly."},{"startTime":5653.333,"endTime":5654.875,"body":"It's a program I've reached for many"},{"startTime":5654.875,"endTime":5657.541,"body":"times and been sad that I didn't have it"},{"startTime":5657.666,"endTime":5659.166,"body":"because it would allow you to draw"},{"startTime":5659.166,"endTime":5660.833,"body":"something that I could, for example, show"},{"startTime":5660.833,"endTime":5661.875,"body":"here and it would be useful."},{"startTime":5662.083,"endTime":5662.5,"body":"So anyway,"},{"startTime":5663.625,"endTime":5670.0,"body":"I used Claude AI to produce a tool for"},{"startTime":5670.0,"endTime":5671.541,"body":"graphing various things."},{"startTime":5671.916,"endTime":5674.291,"body":"Primary on my list of motivations was a"},{"startTime":5674.291,"endTime":5679.041,"body":"tool for doing a Bayesian analysis."},{"startTime":5680.041,"endTime":5681.958,"body":"Bayesian analysis deriving from Bayes"},{"startTime":5681.958,"endTime":5687.5,"body":"theorem is a system of thinking in which"},{"startTime":5687.5,"endTime":5693.041,"body":"you monitor your assumptions and the"},{"startTime":5693.041,"endTime":5695.791,"body":"strength of your conclusion changes as"},{"startTime":5695.791,"endTime":5697.416,"body":"your belief in those assumptions,"},{"startTime":5697.416,"endTime":5699.5,"body":"so-called priors is altered."},{"startTime":5700.0,"endTime":5702.416,"body":"So Jen, you want to show the tool."},{"startTime":5702.416,"endTime":5706.0,"body":"This is a work in progress, but this is a"},{"startTime":5706.0,"endTime":5708.708,"body":"second version of DarkHorse Draw 2."},{"startTime":5708.708,"endTime":5713.0,"body":"And what it is, is a tool that allows you"},{"startTime":5713.333,"endTime":5719.5,"body":"to assign probabilities to branches."},{"startTime":5720.458,"endTime":5724.041,"body":"So we can make this test branch, and then"},{"startTime":5724.041,"endTime":5725.75,"body":"we can say that the probability of this"},{"startTime":5725.75,"endTime":5727.5,"body":"test branch, according to our current"},{"startTime":5727.5,"endTime":5732.375,"body":"understanding, is 70%, and voila, you get"},{"startTime":5732.375,"endTime":5733.375,"body":"probability 0.7 on this branch."},{"startTime":5733.791,"endTime":5739.125,"body":"So you get the basic idea."},{"startTime":5739.458,"endTime":5743.041,"body":"Can we not leave the probability at 1.2?"},{"startTime":5743.75,"endTime":5745.375,"body":"Yes, we sure can."},{"startTime":5745.708,"endTime":5747.375,"body":"Now what Heather is pointing to is that"},{"startTime":5747.375,"endTime":5751.083,"body":"the sum total of probabilities at any"},{"startTime":5751.083,"endTime":5753.958,"body":"given level of this should equal one if"},{"startTime":5753.958,"endTime":5755.416,"body":"you have a complete solution set."},{"startTime":5755.416,"endTime":5756.125,"body":"And there are reasons you"},{"startTime":5756.125,"endTime":5757.541,"body":"might do this without one, but--"},{"startTime":5757.666,"endTime":5758.958,"body":"But it can never be over one."},{"startTime":5758.958,"endTime":5764.958,"body":"Yeah, so what we do is we just say, 0.3"},{"startTime":5764.958,"endTime":5768.833,"body":"here, and voila, now they equal one."},{"startTime":5769.333,"endTime":5770.708,"body":"And I will just also say, for those of"},{"startTime":5770.708,"endTime":5772.125,"body":"you who are watching this, that there's"},{"startTime":5772.125,"endTime":5774.833,"body":"also a table function in which the values"},{"startTime":5774.833,"endTime":5777.25,"body":"are checked at a particular level of the"},{"startTime":5777.25,"endTime":5779.0,"body":"hierarchy in order to see if they equal"},{"startTime":5779.0,"endTime":5780.833,"body":"one to alert you that you may have done"},{"startTime":5780.833,"endTime":5785.666,"body":"some logic wrong if they don't."},{"startTime":5785.666,"endTime":5792.5,"body":"Okay, so what I wanted to do is illustrate how on some controversial"},{"startTime":5792.5,"endTime":5797.25,"body":"issues this tool can be used to help you"},{"startTime":5797.25,"endTime":5798.875,"body":"understand your own thinking."},{"startTime":5798.875,"endTime":5800.0,"body":"Why do I believe this?"},{"startTime":5800.458,"endTime":5802.25,"body":"And in particular, I want you to keep"},{"startTime":5802.25,"endTime":5803.833,"body":"your eye out for the following thing."},{"startTime":5805.333,"endTime":5807.583,"body":"There are many circumstances in which"},{"startTime":5807.583,"endTime":5809.125,"body":"something seems"},{"startTime":5809.125,"endTime":5811.375,"body":"unlikely, maybe even to you."},{"startTime":5812.166,"endTime":5813.666,"body":"And you will get social pressure to agree"},{"startTime":5813.666,"endTime":5814.125,"body":"that if you're going to be a person who"},{"startTime":5814.125,"endTime":5814.666,"body":"has social pressure to"},{"startTime":5814.666,"endTime":5816.625,"body":"agree that it is not true."},{"startTime":5817.541,"endTime":5822.041,"body":"Some part of you should be resisting the"},{"startTime":5822.041,"endTime":5824.333,"body":"urge to close down anything that is"},{"startTime":5824.333,"endTime":5826.666,"body":"possible just because you regard it as"},{"startTime":5826.666,"endTime":5828.916,"body":"highly improbable, right?"},{"startTime":5829.25,"endTime":5831.291,"body":"So my claim is gonna be you will be"},{"startTime":5831.291,"endTime":5836.041,"body":"socially pressured into surrendering a"},{"startTime":5836.041,"endTime":5838.416,"body":"belief in a possibility."},{"startTime":5838.916,"endTime":5840.708,"body":"And then later on down the line, you will"},{"startTime":5840.708,"endTime":5842.208,"body":"not understand why you were confused."},{"startTime":5842.625,"endTime":5845.25,"body":"And the answer is because back when the"},{"startTime":5845.25,"endTime":5849.166,"body":"evidence suggested something was very"},{"startTime":5849.166,"endTime":5852.125,"body":"unlikely, you made the mistake of going"},{"startTime":5852.125,"endTime":5855.416,"body":"from very unlikely to I'll just regard"},{"startTime":5855.416,"endTime":5858.583,"body":"that as impossible because it makes my"},{"startTime":5858.583,"endTime":5860.333,"body":"job of thinking simpler."},{"startTime":5861.708,"endTime":5864.0,"body":"So can we, so for me, this doesn't remind"},{"startTime":5864.0,"endTime":5866.25,"body":"me of phylogeny at all because it doesn't"},{"startTime":5866.25,"endTime":5868.166,"body":"make any sense for a dichotomous branch"},{"startTime":5868.166,"endTime":5870.125,"body":"to have different probabilities like you"},{"startTime":5870.125,"endTime":5871.625,"body":"either branch or it didn't."},{"startTime":5871.708,"endTime":5873.875,"body":"It's a one or a zero, not each is 0.5."},{"startTime":5874.625,"endTime":5876.916,"body":"So I actually am having a hard time just"},{"startTime":5876.916,"endTime":5878.458,"body":"looking at it with species."},{"startTime":5879.125,"endTime":5879.75,"body":"Boom, they're gone."},{"startTime":5880.791,"endTime":5882.958,"body":"Okay, but I think better though than"},{"startTime":5882.958,"endTime":5885.0,"body":"hiding the probabilities because what"},{"startTime":5885.0,"endTime":5885.833,"body":"you're at, so and"},{"startTime":5885.833,"endTime":5886.75,"body":"we've talked about this."},{"startTime":5887.083,"endTime":5889.291,"body":"You've actually done, there's like two"},{"startTime":5889.291,"endTime":5890.041,"body":"different things that you"},{"startTime":5890.041,"endTime":5891.333,"body":"could be trying to accomplish here."},{"startTime":5891.875,"endTime":5893.333,"body":"And I don't think that making tree"},{"startTime":5893.333,"endTime":5895.458,"body":"diagrams is where it's at yet."},{"startTime":5895.458,"endTime":5896.833,"body":"It just doesn't look"},{"startTime":5896.833,"endTime":5897.75,"body":"like phylogenies yet."},{"startTime":5898.833,"endTime":5900.958,"body":"This is better as sort of path analysis"},{"startTime":5901.291,"endTime":5905.625,"body":"and thinking about and putting a visual"},{"startTime":5906.541,"endTime":5908.958,"body":"to the probabilities that you have, like"},{"startTime":5908.958,"endTime":5912.416,"body":"this is only a tool and it's not the kind"},{"startTime":5912.416,"endTime":5914.791,"body":"of tool that this is the kind of tool"},{"startTime":5914.791,"endTime":5915.75,"body":"that very much speaks to"},{"startTime":5915.75,"endTime":5917.458,"body":"the way your brain works."},{"startTime":5918.375,"endTime":5922.666,"body":"And as we were discussing this morning,"},{"startTime":5922.666,"endTime":5925.0,"body":"my brain says, but I know that if I've"},{"startTime":5925.0,"endTime":5927.291,"body":"got three things, all of which have to be"},{"startTime":5927.291,"endTime":5928.375,"body":"true for something to be true, I just"},{"startTime":5928.375,"endTime":5929.5,"body":"multiply those probabilities."},{"startTime":5930.333,"endTime":5933.416,"body":"But having a process show that to you can"},{"startTime":5933.416,"endTime":5936.125,"body":"be useful to reveal to other people."},{"startTime":5936.125,"endTime":5938.791,"body":"So I just, the use of the word species"},{"startTime":5938.791,"endTime":5941.541,"body":"and clade and root here makes us feel"},{"startTime":5941.541,"endTime":5943.041,"body":"like it's pertaining to BFI-logeny, but"},{"startTime":5943.041,"endTime":5946.5,"body":"really what it is, is a discussion of"},{"startTime":5946.5,"endTime":5948.916,"body":"possibilities in logic space."},{"startTime":5948.916,"endTime":5950.958,"body":"Yes, and in fact, I should say, because"},{"startTime":5950.958,"endTime":5953.25,"body":"the tool that I wanted to reach for would"},{"startTime":5953.25,"endTime":5955.291,"body":"have been me borrowing from a cladistic"},{"startTime":5955.291,"endTime":5958.5,"body":"tool that we used to have, I decided to"},{"startTime":5958.5,"endTime":5960.25,"body":"make this so that it could work for"},{"startTime":5960.25,"endTime":5963.166,"body":"phylogenies and the graphics aren't good"},{"startTime":5963.166,"endTime":5965.333,"body":"enough yet to do it, but put that aside,"},{"startTime":5965.583,"endTime":5969.916,"body":"it was intended to be a multi-use tool."},{"startTime":5970.333,"endTime":5977.833,"body":"So let me show you an example and forgive"},{"startTime":5977.833,"endTime":5979.5,"body":"the fact that this ends up small."},{"startTime":5980.791,"endTime":5983.166,"body":"I've learned a lot about what programmers"},{"startTime":5983.166,"endTime":5986.416,"body":"actually go through in order to get a"},{"startTime":5986.416,"endTime":5987.625,"body":"program to actually work."},{"startTime":5988.208,"endTime":5989.958,"body":"And what I wanna show you is the path"},{"startTime":5989.958,"endTime":5992.291,"body":"analysis part of this program."},{"startTime":5993.666,"endTime":6000.041,"body":"So what we have here is, I think that we"},{"startTime":6000.041,"endTime":6003.0,"body":"are having a very insane discussion in"},{"startTime":6003.0,"endTime":6004.708,"body":"public about the"},{"startTime":6004.708,"endTime":6006.75,"body":"assassination of Charlie Kirk."},{"startTime":6007.416,"endTime":6009.583,"body":"One of the things that is insane about it"},{"startTime":6009.833,"endTime":6013.208,"body":"is that people seem to think if you are"},{"startTime":6013.208,"endTime":6015.958,"body":"discussing the possibility that something"},{"startTime":6015.958,"endTime":6018.25,"body":"larger was at work in the assassination"},{"startTime":6018.25,"endTime":6021.583,"body":"of Charlie Kirk, you are saying you don't"},{"startTime":6021.583,"endTime":6025.958,"body":"believe that Tyler Robinson is guilty and"},{"startTime":6025.958,"endTime":6028.833,"body":"that that is ridiculous because there's"},{"startTime":6028.833,"endTime":6030.583,"body":"so much evidence against Tyler Robinson."},{"startTime":6032.125,"endTime":6033.75,"body":"To me, that's a non sequitur."},{"startTime":6034.5,"endTime":6036.291,"body":"This is the point here, right?"},{"startTime":6037.375,"endTime":6040.75,"body":"The nested sets nature of logic, which"},{"startTime":6040.75,"endTime":6043.5,"body":"branching diagrams can reveal in a"},{"startTime":6043.5,"endTime":6045.833,"body":"different way than if you just nested the"},{"startTime":6045.833,"endTime":6048.541,"body":"sets within parentheses or something can"},{"startTime":6048.541,"endTime":6051.875,"body":"show you that it could be Tyler Robinson"},{"startTime":6052.166,"endTime":6054.791,"body":"and still not have him be some lone gun"},{"startTime":6054.791,"endTime":6056.708,"body":"nut, which is exactly what"},{"startTime":6056.708,"endTime":6058.375,"body":"you have established here."},{"startTime":6058.666,"endTime":6063.708,"body":"But again, you've used a tool to"},{"startTime":6063.708,"endTime":6067.333,"body":"visualize a logical understanding that"},{"startTime":6067.333,"endTime":6069.208,"body":"you can't, like the logical understanding"},{"startTime":6069.208,"endTime":6071.875,"body":"is the human scientific part of this that"},{"startTime":6071.875,"endTime":6075.041,"body":"is absolutely necessary to"},{"startTime":6075.041,"endTime":6076.458,"body":"making meaning in the world."},{"startTime":6077.125,"endTime":6079.625,"body":"So let's just walk through this and then"},{"startTime":6079.625,"endTime":6081.666,"body":"I'll show you how the path analysis part"},{"startTime":6081.666,"endTime":6082.541,"body":"works, which is really"},{"startTime":6082.541,"endTime":6083.458,"body":"where this is helpful."},{"startTime":6084.208,"endTime":6085.041,"body":"So the question is"},{"startTime":6085.041,"endTime":6086.083,"body":"who killed Charlie Kirk?"},{"startTime":6086.333,"endTime":6086.875,"body":"Nobody doubts that"},{"startTime":6086.875,"endTime":6088.041,"body":"somebody killed Charlie Kirk."},{"startTime":6088.041,"endTime":6089.708,"body":"Well, I won't say nobody, but let's just"},{"startTime":6089.708,"endTime":6090.75,"body":"say, assuming someone"},{"startTime":6090.75,"endTime":6092.291,"body":"killed Charlie Kirk, which I do,"},{"startTime":6094.083,"endTime":6096.25,"body":"this is a complete"},{"startTime":6096.25,"endTime":6097.958,"body":"solution set right here."},{"startTime":6098.958,"endTime":6101.958,"body":"Either it was one gunman or"},{"startTime":6101.958,"endTime":6103.333,"body":"it was a larger conspiracy."},{"startTime":6104.416,"endTime":6109.333,"body":"So it happens that I have set the"},{"startTime":6109.333,"endTime":6110.583,"body":"probability that it"},{"startTime":6110.583,"endTime":6112.958,"body":"was a lone gunman at 15%."},{"startTime":6114.458,"endTime":6116.916,"body":"And again, you're not pretending that"},{"startTime":6116.916,"endTime":6118.416,"body":"that number is true."},{"startTime":6118.833,"endTime":6122.208,"body":"You're saying this is a visualization of"},{"startTime":6122.208,"endTime":6124.416,"body":"your estimation of what the probabilities"},{"startTime":6124.416,"endTime":6127.583,"body":"are as of now, based on what you know"},{"startTime":6127.583,"endTime":6130.791,"body":"now, so that in part, you can go back and"},{"startTime":6130.791,"endTime":6132.666,"body":"check your own thinking later."},{"startTime":6133.0,"endTime":6134.958,"body":"Right, and one thing I'm going to add to"},{"startTime":6134.958,"endTime":6136.666,"body":"this program is the ability to record why"},{"startTime":6136.666,"endTime":6138.25,"body":"you set a probability the way you did."},{"startTime":6138.25,"endTime":6140.5,"body":"And in this case, I will say, I have"},{"startTime":6140.5,"endTime":6144.291,"body":"ignored most of the analysis around the"},{"startTime":6144.291,"endTime":6146.208,"body":"assassination because I don't feel like"},{"startTime":6146.208,"endTime":6148.083,"body":"I'm in a position to evaluate it."},{"startTime":6148.375,"endTime":6152.916,"body":"But what throws me is the ballistics that"},{"startTime":6152.916,"endTime":6155.916,"body":"are claimed versus what we all saw."},{"startTime":6156.541,"endTime":6158.541,"body":"This does not add up to me and therefore"},{"startTime":6158.541,"endTime":6161.833,"body":"suggest to me something else was afoot."},{"startTime":6161.958,"endTime":6164.875,"body":"That said, weird stuff happens and these"},{"startTime":6164.875,"endTime":6165.958,"body":"probabilities could change."},{"startTime":6165.958,"endTime":6169.333,"body":"I could invert my position based on new"},{"startTime":6169.333,"endTime":6170.5,"body":"evidence or based on some"},{"startTime":6170.5,"endTime":6171.75,"body":"epiphany that I might have."},{"startTime":6172.166,"endTime":6172.875,"body":"But in any case,"},{"startTime":6172.875,"endTime":6174.166,"body":"complete solution set, 15%."},{"startTime":6175.75,"endTime":6177.458,"body":"It was a lone gunman, 85%."},{"startTime":6177.916,"endTime":6179.75,"body":"It was some kind of larger conspiracy"},{"startTime":6179.958,"endTime":6181.25,"body":"with no specificity as"},{"startTime":6181.25,"endTime":6182.458,"body":"to what that might be."},{"startTime":6183.208,"endTime":6185.375,"body":"From each of those two"},{"startTime":6185.375,"endTime":6188.458,"body":"branches, on the lone gunman branch,"},{"startTime":6189.583,"endTime":6191.875,"body":"there's one possibility that the lone"},{"startTime":6191.875,"endTime":6193.541,"body":"gunman was Tyler Robinson."},{"startTime":6194.5,"endTime":6196.416,"body":"I've set that at 98%."},{"startTime":6197.458,"endTime":6198.166,"body":"There's a lot of"},{"startTime":6198.166,"endTime":6199.5,"body":"evidence against Tyler Robinson."},{"startTime":6200.416,"endTime":6202.75,"body":"If the lone gunman was somebody else,"},{"startTime":6204.0,"endTime":6205.333,"body":"well, I don't think the evidence would"},{"startTime":6205.333,"endTime":6206.708,"body":"look like what it does,"},{"startTime":6206.708,"endTime":6207.916,"body":"so I've set that at 2%."},{"startTime":6208.291,"endTime":6210.708,"body":"And again, that adds to 100%."},{"startTime":6211.916,"endTime":6212.541,"body":"And again, you're not"},{"startTime":6212.541,"endTime":6216.458,"body":"claiming that those numbers are true."},{"startTime":6216.958,"endTime":6219.125,"body":"You are using what you currently expect"},{"startTime":6219.125,"endTime":6221.0,"body":"to be true in a model that you can then"},{"startTime":6221.0,"endTime":6223.75,"body":"check later and is changeable."},{"startTime":6223.75,"endTime":6225.916,"body":"Yes, this is a map of my understanding,"},{"startTime":6226.291,"endTime":6228.416,"body":"which can definitely be wrong, but I"},{"startTime":6228.416,"endTime":6230.458,"body":"wanna understand what my understanding is"},{"startTime":6230.458,"endTime":6232.458,"body":"now and I wanna be able to check what it"},{"startTime":6232.458,"endTime":6233.583,"body":"is six months from now."},{"startTime":6233.958,"endTime":6236.041,"body":"I wanna see it evolve and I wanna know"},{"startTime":6236.041,"endTime":6237.666,"body":"why it evolved, what changed when."},{"startTime":6238.416,"endTime":6241.458,"body":"Okay, so there's another branch, the one"},{"startTime":6241.458,"endTime":6243.875,"body":"I have set at 85%, which is that there"},{"startTime":6243.875,"endTime":6246.708,"body":"was a larger conspiracy involved in the"},{"startTime":6246.708,"endTime":6248.041,"body":"assassination of Charlie Kirk."},{"startTime":6248.583,"endTime":6249.625,"body":"No, Charlie Kirk."},{"startTime":6250.625,"endTime":6251.541,"body":"On this, again, you"},{"startTime":6251.541,"endTime":6252.5,"body":"have two possibilities."},{"startTime":6253.083,"endTime":6256.666,"body":"I would say Tyler Robinson is either a"},{"startTime":6256.666,"endTime":6258.541,"body":"patsy in a scenario where there was a"},{"startTime":6258.541,"endTime":6261.083,"body":"larger conspiracy or he was uninvolved."},{"startTime":6262.5,"endTime":6265.458,"body":"Now, if it was a larger conspiracy--"},{"startTime":6265.666,"endTime":6266.791,"body":"And the patsy itself can look a"},{"startTime":6266.791,"endTime":6267.75,"body":"different, a lot of different ways too."},{"startTime":6267.791,"endTime":6268.583,"body":"A lot of different ways."},{"startTime":6268.791,"endTime":6269.291,"body":"Knowing patsy and"},{"startTime":6269.291,"endTime":6270.708,"body":"unknowing patsy, like right."},{"startTime":6270.75,"endTime":6271.583,"body":"Right, exactly."},{"startTime":6272.208,"endTime":6274.75,"body":"So my point would be the whole"},{"startTime":6274.75,"endTime":6276.958,"body":"discussion, you can't have a discussion,"},{"startTime":6277.541,"endTime":6280.5,"body":"was it Tyler Robinson or do you believe"},{"startTime":6280.5,"endTime":6283.333,"body":"in a larger conspiracy because that"},{"startTime":6283.333,"endTime":6288.583,"body":"leaves off the table an obvious likely"},{"startTime":6288.583,"endTime":6290.375,"body":"scenario, which is that a conspiracy"},{"startTime":6290.375,"endTime":6294.0,"body":"would use a patsy to hide its behavior."},{"startTime":6295.125,"endTime":6297.916,"body":"So what this means now is that if we put"},{"startTime":6297.916,"endTime":6301.583,"body":"this in path mode, whoops, here, let's"},{"startTime":6301.583,"endTime":6303.041,"body":"fit the screen, okay."},{"startTime":6303.333,"endTime":6305.541,"body":"If you put this in path mode, we can"},{"startTime":6305.541,"endTime":6309.708,"body":"highlight the two paths in which Tyler"},{"startTime":6309.708,"endTime":6313.583,"body":"Robinson is part of the crime and we get,"},{"startTime":6314.666,"endTime":6320.083,"body":"that is 98% of the potential on the map"},{"startTime":6320.083,"endTime":6320.791,"body":"of my own"},{"startTime":6320.791,"endTime":6322.666,"body":"understanding of the events, okay."},{"startTime":6324.083,"endTime":6325.0,"body":"So here it is,"},{"startTime":6326.083,"endTime":6327.208,"body":"there it is."},{"startTime":6327.208,"endTime":6328.708,"body":"You've got the two paths in which Tyler"},{"startTime":6328.708,"endTime":6330.875,"body":"Robinson is involved in one, he's a lone"},{"startTime":6330.875,"endTime":6332.208,"body":"gunman, in the other, he's"},{"startTime":6332.208,"endTime":6333.791,"body":"a patsy and between the two,"},{"startTime":6334.916,"endTime":6339.375,"body":"you have what I think is a 98% potential."},{"startTime":6339.458,"endTime":6342.541,"body":"So what this reveals about your thinking"},{"startTime":6342.541,"endTime":6344.291,"body":"about the probabilities, so your"},{"startTime":6344.291,"endTime":6346.208,"body":"assignment of probabilities"},{"startTime":6346.208,"endTime":6349.25,"body":"is based on your understanding."},{"startTime":6350.208,"endTime":6356.0,"body":"The possible cases should be"},{"startTime":6356.0,"endTime":6357.791,"body":"recognizable by everyone here."},{"startTime":6358.5,"endTime":6360.208,"body":"Everyone will put different probabilities"},{"startTime":6360.5,"endTime":6363.25,"body":"to each of these six moments,"},{"startTime":6364.708,"endTime":6367.458,"body":"but the was it a lone gunman versus was"},{"startTime":6367.458,"endTime":6368.5,"body":"there a larger conspiracy?"},{"startTime":6369.875,"endTime":6372.083,"body":"I believe that everyone should grant that"},{"startTime":6372.083,"endTime":6373.583,"body":"and maybe someone would say, isn't there"},{"startTime":6373.583,"endTime":6374.375,"body":"a third possibility?"},{"startTime":6374.375,"endTime":6375.833,"body":"Well, I don't know what it is, but okay,"},{"startTime":6376.208,"endTime":6379.5,"body":"say there's possibility three and give it"},{"startTime":6379.5,"endTime":6383.0,"body":"a 1% chance and drop larger conspiracy"},{"startTime":6383.0,"endTime":6384.5,"body":"to, I can't reread your"},{"startTime":6384.5,"endTime":6386.333,"body":"numbers here, to 84 or whatever."},{"startTime":6387.916,"endTime":6390.75,"body":"And can we just zoom out so I can see?"},{"startTime":6393.0,"endTime":6399.541,"body":"So are there other possibilities between,"},{"startTime":6399.916,"endTime":6401.5,"body":"if it's a lone gunman between Tyler"},{"startTime":6401.5,"endTime":6403.333,"body":"Robinson and someone else, no, you've"},{"startTime":6403.333,"endTime":6404.916,"body":"defined a complete solution set"},{"startTime":6404.916,"endTime":6406.166,"body":"inherently de facto."},{"startTime":6406.166,"endTime":6406.458,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":6407.166,"endTime":6408.625,"body":"And Tyler Robinson is a"},{"startTime":6408.625,"endTime":6410.5,"body":"patsy versus he was uninvolved."},{"startTime":6411.333,"endTime":6412.625,"body":"You know, could you phrase that in a way"},{"startTime":6412.625,"endTime":6414.083,"body":"that maybe you want to add a third thing?"},{"startTime":6414.291,"endTime":6417.25,"body":"Maybe, maybe, but really the"},{"startTime":6417.25,"endTime":6419.583,"body":"possibilities that you've described"},{"startTime":6419.583,"endTime":6421.958,"body":"describe everything possible."},{"startTime":6422.458,"endTime":6423.875,"body":"It's the probabilities that you've"},{"startTime":6423.875,"endTime":6426.875,"body":"assigned to them that people may take"},{"startTime":6426.875,"endTime":6428.583,"body":"issue with, that you yourself in the"},{"startTime":6428.583,"endTime":6430.625,"body":"future might disagree with."},{"startTime":6430.625,"endTime":6433.333,"body":"But having this and having the ability to"},{"startTime":6433.333,"endTime":6434.916,"body":"look and say, okay, what"},{"startTime":6434.916,"endTime":6436.875,"body":"if lone gunman, then what?"},{"startTime":6437.416,"endTime":6439.375,"body":"What if someone else, then what?"},{"startTime":6439.666,"endTime":6439.875,"body":"Right?"},{"startTime":6440.833,"endTime":6443.708,"body":"Allows you to track your logic and to"},{"startTime":6443.708,"endTime":6446.791,"body":"keep an eye on your own intuitions and"},{"startTime":6446.791,"endTime":6448.75,"body":"how they change as evidence mounts."},{"startTime":6449.25,"endTime":6449.458,"body":"Yep."},{"startTime":6450.166,"endTime":6452.5,"body":"And let's just say the discussion is"},{"startTime":6452.5,"endTime":6455.208,"body":"liable to be vastly better if the point"},{"startTime":6455.208,"endTime":6456.666,"body":"is, can we all agree that this is the"},{"startTime":6456.666,"endTime":6460.166,"body":"diagram and can we then discuss why your"},{"startTime":6460.166,"endTime":6461.875,"body":"percentage chance that it's"},{"startTime":6461.875,"endTime":6463.625,"body":"a lone gunman is set too low?"},{"startTime":6464.0,"endTime":6465.583,"body":"I'd like to make the argument to you,"},{"startTime":6465.583,"endTime":6467.375,"body":"Bret, that you've set the lone gunman"},{"startTime":6467.375,"endTime":6470.0,"body":"possibility too low and it's because you"},{"startTime":6470.0,"endTime":6471.916,"body":"don't really understand something about a"},{"startTime":6471.916,"endTime":6473.958,"body":"30-06 or something like that, right?"},{"startTime":6474.125,"endTime":6475.875,"body":"That's a discussion I am absolutely ready"},{"startTime":6475.875,"endTime":6479.125,"body":"to have as long as we're doing it on a"},{"startTime":6479.125,"endTime":6483.583,"body":"diagram that has Patsy properly"},{"startTime":6483.583,"endTime":6486.083,"body":"categorized as a real possibility."},{"startTime":6486.291,"endTime":6487.333,"body":"I'm not saying it happened."},{"startTime":6487.333,"endTime":6489.75,"body":"It could easily be eliminated, but the"},{"startTime":6489.75,"endTime":6491.958,"body":"fact that you're telling me, his"},{"startTime":6491.958,"endTime":6494.333,"body":"fingerprints were on the gun, it's like,"},{"startTime":6494.333,"endTime":6495.333,"body":"well, wouldn't you want them"},{"startTime":6495.333,"endTime":6496.541,"body":"to be if you wanted a Patsy?"},{"startTime":6496.541,"endTime":6498.0,"body":"Can we agree that there are people who"},{"startTime":6498.0,"endTime":6500.75,"body":"would benefit from having a Patsy to"},{"startTime":6500.75,"endTime":6503.208,"body":"cover their tracks for an assassination?"},{"startTime":6503.625,"endTime":6504.041,"body":"Of course."},{"startTime":6504.958,"endTime":6509.208,"body":"So is the fact that his prints are on the"},{"startTime":6509.208,"endTime":6511.25,"body":"gun and that he appears to have been on"},{"startTime":6511.25,"endTime":6512.75,"body":"the roof, is that evidence that there was"},{"startTime":6512.75,"endTime":6513.708,"body":"no larger conspiracy?"},{"startTime":6514.25,"endTime":6516.041,"body":"Not if you understand what a Patsy is."},{"startTime":6516.083,"endTime":6519.083,"body":"So there's gonna be many, many words for"},{"startTime":6519.083,"endTime":6522.5,"body":"this kind of logical contingency thinking"},{"startTime":6522.583,"endTime":6524.125,"body":"across many, many domains."},{"startTime":6525.0,"endTime":6527.125,"body":"I'm thinking in terms of nested sets and"},{"startTime":6527.125,"endTime":6530.416,"body":"contingencies and presumably economics"},{"startTime":6530.416,"endTime":6534.041,"body":"and game theory and rationality space."},{"startTime":6534.708,"endTime":6536.166,"body":"All of the different traditions are gonna"},{"startTime":6536.166,"endTime":6537.375,"body":"have different words"},{"startTime":6537.375,"endTime":6538.916,"body":"for exactly what this is."},{"startTime":6539.875,"endTime":6542.541,"body":"What you've done, I think that is useful,"},{"startTime":6543.0,"endTime":6544.041,"body":"that I haven't really seen"},{"startTime":6544.041,"endTime":6547.375,"body":"before, is the visual path."},{"startTime":6547.375,"endTime":6549.583,"body":"And as you say, it's path analysis, but"},{"startTime":6549.583,"endTime":6554.416,"body":"the visual path in which you can, by"},{"startTime":6554.416,"endTime":6556.958,"body":"which anyone can look at it and say,"},{"startTime":6556.958,"endTime":6559.416,"body":"you're missing a possibility, okay?"},{"startTime":6559.708,"endTime":6560.208,"body":"Let's talk."},{"startTime":6560.666,"endTime":6562.833,"body":"As opposed to that probability is wrong."},{"startTime":6563.75,"endTime":6564.5,"body":"Well, that's the"},{"startTime":6564.5,"endTime":6566.25,"body":"probability I assigned to it."},{"startTime":6566.25,"endTime":6567.5,"body":"I didn't say it was correct,"},{"startTime":6567.5,"endTime":6569.125,"body":"but that's my instinct here."},{"startTime":6569.5,"endTime":6570.833,"body":"Why do you think it's wrong?"},{"startTime":6570.833,"endTime":6571.666,"body":"Those are two really"},{"startTime":6571.666,"endTime":6573.875,"body":"different kinds of objections, right?"},{"startTime":6575.25,"endTime":6579.458,"body":"And I think honing in on what is the"},{"startTime":6579.458,"endTime":6581.166,"body":"objection that the person who's yelling"},{"startTime":6581.166,"endTime":6583.25,"body":"at you at the moment about something that"},{"startTime":6583.25,"endTime":6585.958,"body":"they are sure you have wrong is about."},{"startTime":6585.958,"endTime":6586.541,"body":"Is it a,"},{"startTime":6588.291,"endTime":6589.583,"body":"you don't understand something about the"},{"startTime":6589.583,"endTime":6590.5,"body":"gun that was used,"},{"startTime":6590.708,"endTime":6592.791,"body":"okay, teach me, educate me."},{"startTime":6593.291,"endTime":6594.666,"body":"Or you're an idiot, just"},{"startTime":6594.666,"endTime":6595.708,"body":"fingerprints are on the gun."},{"startTime":6596.291,"endTime":6598.875,"body":"Okay, you're an idiot because you're not"},{"startTime":6598.875,"endTime":6602.583,"body":"understanding what the causality of"},{"startTime":6602.583,"endTime":6604.75,"body":"evidence actually looks like."},{"startTime":6605.0,"endTime":6605.208,"body":"Yep,"},{"startTime":6606.583,"endTime":6608.583,"body":"and in fact, you can spot, because there"},{"startTime":6608.583,"endTime":6611.041,"body":"are two levels in this analysis, you can"},{"startTime":6611.041,"endTime":6615.583,"body":"spot that somebody who is certain that it"},{"startTime":6615.583,"endTime":6617.75,"body":"was a lone gunman because they believe it"},{"startTime":6617.75,"endTime":6620.375,"body":"was Tyler Robinson based on the evidence"},{"startTime":6620.541,"endTime":6622.208,"body":"is involved in a non sequitur."},{"startTime":6622.291,"endTime":6623.291,"body":"Tyler Robinson is on"},{"startTime":6623.291,"endTime":6626.041,"body":"both branches of this tree."},{"startTime":6626.833,"endTime":6629.333,"body":"So anyway, I just think it's super"},{"startTime":6629.333,"endTime":6632.5,"body":"clarifying to not have some weirdo"},{"startTime":6632.5,"endTime":6634.833,"body":"argument where you're saying things and"},{"startTime":6634.833,"endTime":6637.083,"body":"you assume that the natural consequence"},{"startTime":6637.083,"endTime":6639.208,"body":"of them is obvious to everybody."},{"startTime":6639.5,"endTime":6641.0,"body":"It's like, wouldn't it be better if you"},{"startTime":6641.0,"endTime":6643.125,"body":"had that argument in a room with that on"},{"startTime":6643.125,"endTime":6644.666,"body":"the board, where you can just simply"},{"startTime":6644.666,"endTime":6646.375,"body":"point to which of these four"},{"startTime":6646.375,"endTime":6648.166,"body":"possibilities you're describing at any"},{"startTime":6648.166,"endTime":6651.916,"body":"moment, it would be clarifying, which is,"},{"startTime":6651.916,"endTime":6653.416,"body":"I think in part why this is not"},{"startTime":6653.416,"endTime":6656.0,"body":"happening, that there are those of us who"},{"startTime":6656.0,"endTime":6658.083,"body":"are seeking clarity and there are others"},{"startTime":6658.083,"endTime":6660.166,"body":"who are trying to shut it down."},{"startTime":6660.625,"endTime":6662.583,"body":"Well, no, I mean, it's not"},{"startTime":6662.583,"endTime":6663.708,"body":"happening for a lot of reasons."},{"startTime":6664.041,"endTime":6665.458,"body":"Some of it is because some people don't"},{"startTime":6665.458,"endTime":6666.916,"body":"want clarity, some systems,"},{"startTime":6666.916,"endTime":6668.083,"body":"some people don't want clarity."},{"startTime":6669.25,"endTime":6672.916,"body":"But this is the 20 questions exercise"},{"startTime":6673.208,"endTime":6675.083,"body":"that I used to do at the beginning of"},{"startTime":6675.083,"endTime":6676.916,"body":"just about every class and that we did"},{"startTime":6676.916,"endTime":6678.333,"body":"together sometimes that we were first"},{"startTime":6678.333,"endTime":6680.125,"body":"introduced to the force of Costa Rica."},{"startTime":6682.75,"endTime":6684.625,"body":"Is this kind of lesson, right?"},{"startTime":6684.958,"endTime":6689.416,"body":"So what it is, is based on an exercise at"},{"startTime":6689.416,"endTime":6690.625,"body":"the Organization for Tropical Studies"},{"startTime":6690.625,"endTime":6692.541,"body":"does with its graduate students in"},{"startTime":6692.541,"endTime":6694.75,"body":"courses for people learning how to be"},{"startTime":6694.75,"endTime":6697.083,"body":"tropical biologists, as we were when we"},{"startTime":6697.083,"endTime":6698.625,"body":"were first introduced to it."},{"startTime":6699.166,"endTime":6701.0,"body":"You take people out someplace in nature"},{"startTime":6701.791,"endTime":6704.458,"body":"where they are not gonna be in visual"},{"startTime":6704.458,"endTime":6706.916,"body":"distance, even better if not an earshot"},{"startTime":6706.916,"endTime":6709.416,"body":"of anyone else with nothing but a"},{"startTime":6709.416,"endTime":6714.166,"body":"notebook and a pencil or pen and really"},{"startTime":6714.166,"endTime":6716.791,"body":"like nothing else if they can manage it."},{"startTime":6716.791,"endTime":6718.625,"body":"And you say, look, put you down here,"},{"startTime":6719.166,"endTime":6720.291,"body":"don't move unless you have to."},{"startTime":6720.5,"endTime":6722.291,"body":"And if you're swarmed by bees or bear"},{"startTime":6722.291,"endTime":6723.958,"body":"comes along, you can escape."},{"startTime":6726.416,"endTime":6727.458,"body":"And I'll come back in"},{"startTime":6727.458,"endTime":6728.583,"body":"two hours, I swear I will."},{"startTime":6729.166,"endTime":6729.666,"body":"I used to say to"},{"startTime":6729.666,"endTime":6730.75,"body":"students, I've never lost anyone."},{"startTime":6732.375,"endTime":6737.333,"body":"And just sit and be and observe."},{"startTime":6738.125,"endTime":6740.083,"body":"And for a while, what you're gonna"},{"startTime":6740.083,"endTime":6742.958,"body":"observe probably, except for those who"},{"startTime":6742.958,"endTime":6744.5,"body":"are sort of the most Buddhist and"},{"startTime":6744.5,"endTime":6747.583,"body":"meditative already, will be the stuff in"},{"startTime":6747.583,"endTime":6748.666,"body":"their head going like, what is this?"},{"startTime":6748.666,"endTime":6749.125,"body":"This is stupid."},{"startTime":6749.375,"endTime":6750.291,"body":"Why'd she do this to me?"},{"startTime":6750.291,"endTime":6751.0,"body":"What is going on?"},{"startTime":6751.25,"endTime":6752.875,"body":"Like, I don't wanna be here, I'm hungry."},{"startTime":6752.875,"endTime":6753.583,"body":"What am I doing tonight?"},{"startTime":6753.916,"endTime":6754.708,"body":"Right, like all of that,"},{"startTime":6754.708,"endTime":6755.791,"body":"all of the internal stuff."},{"startTime":6755.791,"endTime":6757.875,"body":"It's like, you can write those things"},{"startTime":6757.875,"endTime":6758.5,"body":"that come into your"},{"startTime":6758.5,"endTime":6759.416,"body":"head down if you want."},{"startTime":6760.375,"endTime":6762.375,"body":"Either professor or your peers when you"},{"startTime":6762.375,"endTime":6764.458,"body":"share this with them later on, that's not"},{"startTime":6764.458,"endTime":6765.375,"body":"the stuff I want you to share."},{"startTime":6767.25,"endTime":6770.5,"body":"Maybe useful to you, the logging of your"},{"startTime":6770.5,"endTime":6771.958,"body":"internal dialogue, that's"},{"startTime":6771.958,"endTime":6772.708,"body":"not what we're doing here."},{"startTime":6773.041,"endTime":6774.916,"body":"This is an exercise in learning how to"},{"startTime":6774.916,"endTime":6776.541,"body":"actually observe the outside world."},{"startTime":6777.166,"endTime":6780.541,"body":"And coming to recognize that you cannot"},{"startTime":6780.541,"endTime":6782.0,"body":"observe without your sensory biases"},{"startTime":6782.25,"endTime":6784.125,"body":"because you observe through your senses"},{"startTime":6784.458,"endTime":6786.333,"body":"and they have biases and those are yours"},{"startTime":6786.541,"endTime":6788.416,"body":"and there is nothing to be done about it."},{"startTime":6788.625,"endTime":6790.75,"body":"But what you come to recognize, and I'm"},{"startTime":6790.75,"endTime":6793.708,"body":"jumping ahead here a bit, is at the point"},{"startTime":6793.708,"endTime":6795.541,"body":"that you have reported that you saw a"},{"startTime":6795.541,"endTime":6796.916,"body":"thing and then someone else was over"},{"startTime":6796.916,"endTime":6797.375,"body":"there and they're like,"},{"startTime":6797.375,"endTime":6798.458,"body":"\"Oh, I saw that thing too.\""},{"startTime":6798.458,"endTime":6800.083,"body":"And then someone else was over there at a"},{"startTime":6800.083,"endTime":6801.625,"body":"different moment in time and say, \"Oh,"},{"startTime":6801.625,"endTime":6803.416,"body":"but over there, I saw the same thing."},{"startTime":6803.416,"endTime":6804.75,"body":"It was just slightly different, but it"},{"startTime":6804.75,"endTime":6805.791,"body":"was the same kind of thing.\""},{"startTime":6806.333,"endTime":6809.416,"body":"As you start to accumulate very similar"},{"startTime":6809.416,"endTime":6811.125,"body":"eyewitness, ear witness, whatever"},{"startTime":6811.125,"endTime":6813.166,"body":"accounts of a thing, you go, \"Ah,"},{"startTime":6814.25,"endTime":6815.5,"body":"I think we have a pattern.\""},{"startTime":6815.875,"endTime":6817.041,"body":"And so that's the beginning of pattern"},{"startTime":6817.041,"endTime":6818.625,"body":"recognition, which is the beginning of"},{"startTime":6818.625,"endTime":6822.75,"body":"truth-making, of truth-seeing and"},{"startTime":6822.75,"endTime":6823.458,"body":"revealing and"},{"startTime":6823.458,"endTime":6824.458,"body":"understanding of the universe."},{"startTime":6825.208,"endTime":6828.125,"body":"So as your brain quiets down and you stop"},{"startTime":6828.125,"endTime":6829.708,"body":"worrying about the fact that you're out"},{"startTime":6829.708,"endTime":6831.75,"body":"of candy and you don't have a date for"},{"startTime":6831.75,"endTime":6833.166,"body":"the night and whatever it is,"},{"startTime":6834.625,"endTime":6837.625,"body":"you start seeing a bird fly by and you"},{"startTime":6837.625,"endTime":6838.75,"body":"wonder, \"Where's it going?"},{"startTime":6838.75,"endTime":6839.833,"body":"Maybe that's your question.\""},{"startTime":6839.875,"endTime":6841.125,"body":"Or you think, \"I"},{"startTime":6841.125,"endTime":6841.875,"body":"wonder if it has a mate.\""},{"startTime":6842.291,"endTime":6843.333,"body":"Or, \"What does it eat?\""},{"startTime":6843.791,"endTime":6846.833,"body":"Or maybe even something as mundane and"},{"startTime":6846.833,"endTime":6847.666,"body":"actually socially"},{"startTime":6847.666,"endTime":6849.083,"body":"constructed as, \"What is it called?\""},{"startTime":6850.333,"endTime":6852.333,"body":"It doesn't know what it's called because"},{"startTime":6852.333,"endTime":6853.958,"body":"what it's called is what we call it."},{"startTime":6854.166,"endTime":6855.25,"body":"That doesn't actually tell you anything"},{"startTime":6855.25,"endTime":6857.583,"body":"about it, but once you know what a"},{"startTime":6857.583,"endTime":6859.875,"body":"particular species is called, you can use"},{"startTime":6859.875,"endTime":6862.916,"body":"some of the massive understanding that"},{"startTime":6862.916,"endTime":6863.416,"body":"humans have already"},{"startTime":6863.416,"endTime":6865.0,"body":"accumulated to learn something else."},{"startTime":6865.666,"endTime":6867.5,"body":"It's not as rich a kind of understanding"},{"startTime":6867.791,"endTime":6870.25,"body":"as watching yourself and coming to know."},{"startTime":6870.791,"endTime":6873.041,"body":"But so you write down, you aim for 20"},{"startTime":6873.041,"endTime":6875.083,"body":"questions in those two hours, that you"},{"startTime":6875.083,"endTime":6876.833,"body":"have about what you actually are"},{"startTime":6876.833,"endTime":6878.541,"body":"observing in the natural world."},{"startTime":6879.333,"endTime":6880.375,"body":"And two hours later,"},{"startTime":6880.666,"endTime":6881.625,"body":"come pick you up, say,"},{"startTime":6883.25,"endTime":6885.125,"body":"ready to go, I'll see you this afternoon"},{"startTime":6885.375,"endTime":6887.0,"body":"or tomorrow morning, depending on when"},{"startTime":6887.0,"endTime":6887.75,"body":"we're doing the thing."},{"startTime":6888.625,"endTime":6891.625,"body":"And then the class of depending 25 or 50"},{"startTime":6891.625,"endTime":6894.0,"body":"people comes in with their questions and"},{"startTime":6894.0,"endTime":6897.541,"body":"break them into groups and say, \"Okay, in"},{"startTime":6897.541,"endTime":6900.375,"body":"each group of four, everyone choose one"},{"startTime":6900.375,"endTime":6902.416,"body":"of their own favorite questions and one"},{"startTime":6902.416,"endTime":6903.791,"body":"question from the person sitting to your"},{"startTime":6903.791,"endTime":6905.291,"body":"right that you like of theirs best."},{"startTime":6905.541,"endTime":6908.166,"body":"And then work up from those eight, as"},{"startTime":6908.166,"endTime":6910.041,"body":"many as possible in the next hour or"},{"startTime":6910.041,"endTime":6912.833,"body":"whatever, how would you"},{"startTime":6912.833,"endTime":6913.791,"body":"figure out the answer?"},{"startTime":6914.666,"endTime":6918.0,"body":"What are the hypotheses that could begin"},{"startTime":6918.416,"endTime":6920.0,"body":"to address the observation that you had"},{"startTime":6920.0,"endTime":6920.958,"body":"that prompted the question?"},{"startTime":6920.958,"endTime":6922.0,"body":"What are the predictions that emerged"},{"startTime":6922.0,"endTime":6922.75,"body":"from those hypotheses?"},{"startTime":6923.708,"endTime":6926.125,"body":"And then if you can get this far, what"},{"startTime":6926.125,"endTime":6928.291,"body":"are the experimental tests or the"},{"startTime":6928.291,"endTime":6930.0,"body":"observational tests that you could"},{"startTime":6930.0,"endTime":6931.833,"body":"determine to figure out what is true?"},{"startTime":6933.041,"endTime":6937.375,"body":"And then in the next part of the"},{"startTime":6937.375,"endTime":6940.166,"body":"exercise, you come together and everyone"},{"startTime":6940.166,"endTime":6941.833,"body":"presents what they've done to the whole"},{"startTime":6941.833,"endTime":6945.083,"body":"class and why do people feel fiercely"},{"startTime":6945.5,"endTime":6947.833,"body":"about some of the hypotheses that they"},{"startTime":6947.833,"endTime":6949.5,"body":"have generated, about observations that"},{"startTime":6949.5,"endTime":6951.791,"body":"they had just hours earlier or a day"},{"startTime":6951.791,"endTime":6954.458,"body":"earlier, things about which they didn't"},{"startTime":6954.458,"endTime":6956.958,"body":"even know anything 24 hours earlier, much"},{"startTime":6956.958,"endTime":6958.291,"body":"less have an opinion about it."},{"startTime":6958.666,"endTime":6960.5,"body":"But suddenly, not only do they have an"},{"startTime":6960.5,"endTime":6962.875,"body":"opinion, they feel fiercely and they are"},{"startTime":6962.875,"endTime":6964.5,"body":"ready to fight you if you disagree."},{"startTime":6965.125,"endTime":6967.666,"body":"And this in part reveals the social"},{"startTime":6967.666,"endTime":6971.041,"body":"dynamic that emerges once you have put"},{"startTime":6971.041,"endTime":6973.041,"body":"some effort into belief."},{"startTime":6974.375,"endTime":6975.875,"body":"And it also reveals,"},{"startTime":6975.875,"endTime":6977.0,"body":"okay, but how would we know?"},{"startTime":6977.375,"endTime":6978.791,"body":"I get that you feel really strongly about"},{"startTime":6978.791,"endTime":6979.958,"body":"this, but how would we know?"},{"startTime":6980.25,"endTime":6981.875,"body":"This is where we use the science and the"},{"startTime":6981.875,"endTime":6983.875,"body":"whole process has been the science, but"},{"startTime":6983.875,"endTime":6985.333,"body":"this is how we begin to figure it out."},{"startTime":6985.958,"endTime":6988.5,"body":"And like that sort of teasing a part of"},{"startTime":6988.5,"endTime":6991.166,"body":"like, okay, what's the logical causal set"},{"startTime":6991.166,"endTime":6993.75,"body":"of things that we would need to do to"},{"startTime":6993.75,"endTime":6994.916,"body":"figure out what is true?"},{"startTime":6996.0,"endTime":6998.666,"body":"And oh boy, do you see how fiercely you"},{"startTime":6998.666,"endTime":7000.333,"body":"care now about something that actually"},{"startTime":7000.333,"endTime":7000.916,"body":"you didn't even know"},{"startTime":7000.916,"endTime":7002.208,"body":"existed 24 hours ago?"},{"startTime":7002.666,"endTime":7004.541,"body":"That's what you see on"},{"startTime":7004.541,"endTime":7006.916,"body":"social media every single day."},{"startTime":7006.958,"endTime":7009.375,"body":"Yeah, and actually, I think if the"},{"startTime":7009.375,"endTime":7011.458,"body":"formalized exercise involved something"},{"startTime":7011.458,"endTime":7013.166,"body":"like this, as you're debating, what is"},{"startTime":7013.166,"endTime":7015.875,"body":"the complete set of possible explanations"},{"startTime":7016.125,"endTime":7017.333,"body":"for the behavior we saw?"},{"startTime":7017.791,"endTime":7019.833,"body":"If you had them all here and you could"},{"startTime":7019.833,"endTime":7022.041,"body":"even take a poll of the room in order to"},{"startTime":7022.041,"endTime":7023.5,"body":"figure out what the room's"},{"startTime":7023.5,"endTime":7025.041,"body":"instinct was on these things."},{"startTime":7025.791,"endTime":7027.708,"body":"And then you debate out these things, you"},{"startTime":7027.708,"endTime":7029.708,"body":"rule out several hypotheses because you"},{"startTime":7029.708,"endTime":7031.833,"body":"have evidence that makes them"},{"startTime":7032.875,"endTime":7033.833,"body":"almost certain to be false."},{"startTime":7034.375,"endTime":7036.041,"body":"Whatever the point is watching the"},{"startTime":7036.041,"endTime":7040.916,"body":"probability collapse to one of the"},{"startTime":7040.916,"endTime":7043.208,"body":"branches without the tree collapsing to"},{"startTime":7043.208,"endTime":7045.416,"body":"anything smaller than it was, that's a"},{"startTime":7045.416,"endTime":7046.833,"body":"very useful exercise."},{"startTime":7047.541,"endTime":7049.208,"body":"This, so this is one of the key points"},{"startTime":7049.208,"endTime":7050.75,"body":"that we wanted to get to, right?"},{"startTime":7050.958,"endTime":7053.333,"body":"In this particular example you've given,"},{"startTime":7053.333,"endTime":7055.25,"body":"you just have two options at each."},{"startTime":7056.0,"endTime":7059.833,"body":"But I don't know if you wanna use the"},{"startTime":7059.833,"endTime":7060.541,"body":"example that we were"},{"startTime":7060.541,"endTime":7062.291,"body":"using earlier in talking."},{"startTime":7062.875,"endTime":7064.5,"body":"You were talking about"},{"startTime":7064.5,"endTime":7065.458,"body":"the existence of God."},{"startTime":7065.791,"endTime":7067.125,"body":"Yep, oh, that's coming up soon."},{"startTime":7067.458,"endTime":7070.916,"body":"Okay, well, so the point is, I don't know"},{"startTime":7070.916,"endTime":7073.875,"body":"how you wanna get to it, but the point is"},{"startTime":7073.875,"endTime":7077.625,"body":"that you don't ever say, ah, I am so"},{"startTime":7077.625,"endTime":7080.083,"body":"certain that that's not a possibility,"},{"startTime":7080.5,"endTime":7082.666,"body":"even though I can't ever have concrete"},{"startTime":7082.666,"endTime":7084.583,"body":"proof that I'm gonna reduce the"},{"startTime":7084.583,"endTime":7086.833,"body":"probability to zero or increase the"},{"startTime":7086.833,"endTime":7087.875,"body":"probability to one and thus"},{"startTime":7087.875,"endTime":7089.166,"body":"eradicate all the other branches."},{"startTime":7089.708,"endTime":7093.375,"body":"That keeping them all alive as distinctly"},{"startTime":7093.375,"endTime":7097.666,"body":"remote possibilities allows you to"},{"startTime":7097.666,"endTime":7099.875,"body":"resurrect them if new"},{"startTime":7099.875,"endTime":7100.958,"body":"evidence comes to light."},{"startTime":7101.791,"endTime":7106.25,"body":"And that keeps the logical brain open to"},{"startTime":7106.25,"endTime":7111.875,"body":"possibility possibility and relishing of"},{"startTime":7111.875,"endTime":7116.0,"body":"uncertainty in a way that modern life and"},{"startTime":7116.0,"endTime":7116.875,"body":"specifically life"},{"startTime":7116.875,"endTime":7119.333,"body":"online does not seem to like."},{"startTime":7119.75,"endTime":7121.958,"body":"Life online wants you to be 100% certain"},{"startTime":7121.958,"endTime":7124.333,"body":"all the time, I know this isn't true, I"},{"startTime":7124.333,"endTime":7125.708,"body":"know this is true, how"},{"startTime":7125.708,"endTime":7126.75,"body":"could you believe anything else?"},{"startTime":7127.041,"endTime":7127.541,"body":"You're an idiot."},{"startTime":7129.083,"endTime":7133.0,"body":"And actually, the point here is really,"},{"startTime":7133.5,"endTime":7135.375,"body":"uncertainty is not just your friend, it's"},{"startTime":7135.375,"endTime":7136.416,"body":"absolutely necessary."},{"startTime":7136.958,"endTime":7139.208,"body":"You need to retain uncertainty on almost"},{"startTime":7139.208,"endTime":7141.0,"body":"every topic and that does not mean that"},{"startTime":7141.0,"endTime":7142.833,"body":"you need to be wishy washy, that does not"},{"startTime":7142.833,"endTime":7143.833,"body":"mean that you need to think there's a"},{"startTime":7143.833,"endTime":7145.25,"body":"50-50 chance of everything."},{"startTime":7145.791,"endTime":7147.0,"body":"Uncertainty can mean,"},{"startTime":7148.708,"endTime":7149.416,"body":"I really don't think"},{"startTime":7149.416,"endTime":7150.5,"body":"there's a God personally,"},{"startTime":7151.666,"endTime":7153.208,"body":"but that doesn't mean that I have decided"},{"startTime":7153.208,"endTime":7154.75,"body":"that there's absolutely zero chance."},{"startTime":7155.125,"endTime":7158.041,"body":"Yep, now there is, as you will see in the"},{"startTime":7158.041,"endTime":7159.666,"body":"next diagram, there's something that I"},{"startTime":7159.666,"endTime":7161.666,"body":"decided not to put on this diagram in"},{"startTime":7161.666,"endTime":7165.458,"body":"part just to make it readable, but what"},{"startTime":7165.458,"endTime":7168.208,"body":"is implied here is this diagram assumes"},{"startTime":7169.541,"endTime":7171.458,"body":"the assassination of Charlie Kirk and"},{"startTime":7171.458,"endTime":7174.458,"body":"there is a hidden possibility which you"},{"startTime":7174.458,"endTime":7175.708,"body":"will see in the next case."},{"startTime":7176.0,"endTime":7178.458,"body":"So if I were to make this diagram more"},{"startTime":7178.458,"endTime":7181.916,"body":"complete, I would add here"},{"startTime":7181.916,"endTime":7184.0,"body":"a branch and it would say,"},{"startTime":7187.0,"endTime":7187.458,"body":"I know--"},{"startTime":7189.541,"endTime":7190.208,"body":"You're at the wrong place."},{"startTime":7191.333,"endTime":7191.75,"body":"I am."},{"startTime":7192.333,"endTime":7194.333,"body":"(Bell Dings)"},{"startTime":7194.333,"endTime":7195.875,"body":"Oh, yeah,"},{"startTime":7196.541,"endTime":7197.875,"body":"delete that here."},{"startTime":7200.708,"endTime":7201.75,"body":"Why did, oh, it added"},{"startTime":7201.75,"endTime":7202.875,"body":"because I'm in add mode."},{"startTime":7204.416,"endTime":7204.666,"body":"Wow."},{"startTime":7205.291,"endTime":7206.041,"body":"It's a new app."},{"startTime":7206.458,"endTime":7207.708,"body":"Yeah, it's a new app."},{"startTime":7207.708,"endTime":7209.416,"body":"It's a little, needs some refining."},{"startTime":7213.416,"endTime":7216.375,"body":"Okay, so go back to select mode, we say,"},{"startTime":7220.208,"endTime":7228.041,"body":"I know nothing."},{"startTime":7228.75,"endTime":7230.458,"body":"Now, I will point out and you'll see in"},{"startTime":7230.458,"endTime":7232.416,"body":"the next diagram that I know nothing"},{"startTime":7232.416,"endTime":7236.791,"body":"comes in a couple of different flavors,"},{"startTime":7237.291,"endTime":7238.083,"body":"but what would you do"},{"startTime":7238.083,"endTime":7238.708,"body":"with the probability?"},{"startTime":7238.958,"endTime":7240.0,"body":"Well, I would say,"},{"startTime":7242.666,"endTime":7242.916,"body":"oops."},{"startTime":7243.708,"endTime":7246.875,"body":"I guess I'm not sure why, what that adds."},{"startTime":7247.333,"endTime":7249.541,"body":"I don't know why that's useful here"},{"startTime":7250.916,"endTime":7253.833,"body":"because I feel like, Because-- You feel"},{"startTime":7253.833,"endTime":7255.208,"body":"Charlie Kirk, whatever the question is,"},{"startTime":7255.458,"endTime":7256.5,"body":"you can just opt out."},{"startTime":7256.5,"endTime":7257.208,"body":"You could be like, I'm"},{"startTime":7257.208,"endTime":7258.291,"body":"not weighing in on this."},{"startTime":7258.291,"endTime":7259.291,"body":"I don't have an opinion."},{"startTime":7259.291,"endTime":7259.916,"body":"Oh, no, no, no, this"},{"startTime":7259.916,"endTime":7261.125,"body":"is about something else."},{"startTime":7262.25,"endTime":7264.25,"body":"The diagram as I presented it assumes"},{"startTime":7264.25,"endTime":7265.166,"body":"that there was an"},{"startTime":7265.166,"endTime":7266.5,"body":"assassination of Charlie Kirk."},{"startTime":7267.458,"endTime":7271.5,"body":"What I'm trying to do is instill a kind"},{"startTime":7271.5,"endTime":7274.125,"body":"of mental discipline the same way when"},{"startTime":7274.125,"endTime":7276.208,"body":"our children were very certain of things"},{"startTime":7276.541,"endTime":7278.25,"body":"that were impossible to"},{"startTime":7278.25,"endTime":7279.5,"body":"be perfectly certain of."},{"startTime":7279.833,"endTime":7281.625,"body":"I would say, how sure are you?"},{"startTime":7281.625,"endTime":7282.416,"body":"And they would say 100%"},{"startTime":7282.75,"endTime":7284.333,"body":"and I would say, try again."},{"startTime":7284.625,"endTime":7286.458,"body":"I want to know what your"},{"startTime":7286.458,"endTime":7287.5,"body":"degree of uncertainty is."},{"startTime":7287.5,"endTime":7288.458,"body":"And if you say, well, there are certain"},{"startTime":7288.458,"endTime":7290.166,"body":"things that are just certain, the answer"},{"startTime":7290.166,"endTime":7291.708,"body":"is actually even those things aren't."},{"startTime":7291.708,"endTime":7294.541,"body":"This is exactly why Dick Hart struggled"},{"startTime":7294.541,"endTime":7297.125,"body":"to even prove to himself that he existed."},{"startTime":7297.458,"endTime":7299.541,"body":"Is it nothing is that certain, right?"},{"startTime":7300.625,"endTime":7301.875,"body":"So-- I thought you said Dick Hart."},{"startTime":7302.916,"endTime":7304.0,"body":"Who else Dick Hart?"},{"startTime":7304.416,"endTime":7305.333,"body":"Who are we talking about now?"},{"startTime":7305.916,"endTime":7306.666,"body":"Gary Hart's uncle."},{"startTime":7307.791,"endTime":7310.833,"body":"But anyway, the point is the idea that"},{"startTime":7310.833,"endTime":7312.458,"body":"there should always be looming in your"},{"startTime":7312.458,"endTime":7316.666,"body":"mind, the possibility that you are in a"},{"startTime":7316.666,"endTime":7320.125,"body":"coma and imagining all of this, or that"},{"startTime":7320.125,"endTime":7323.0,"body":"some malevolent for your brain in a jar"},{"startTime":7323.0,"endTime":7324.375,"body":"and you think you're a person and you're"},{"startTime":7324.375,"endTime":7326.541,"body":"being fed data to see what"},{"startTime":7326.541,"endTime":7328.583,"body":"you are gonna do with it, right?"},{"startTime":7328.708,"endTime":7330.541,"body":"Those things aren't significant"},{"startTime":7330.541,"endTime":7332.625,"body":"possibilities, but the idea that you"},{"startTime":7332.625,"endTime":7334.75,"body":"leave them open because that means that"},{"startTime":7334.75,"endTime":7336.541,"body":"you are actually completely open to the"},{"startTime":7336.541,"endTime":7339.708,"body":"discovery that something you didn't have"},{"startTime":7339.708,"endTime":7342.208,"body":"on your map should be is a"},{"startTime":7342.208,"endTime":7343.958,"body":"key part of epistemic humility."},{"startTime":7345.166,"endTime":7348.541,"body":"Yeah, I think that putting that on this"},{"startTime":7349.125,"endTime":7350.166,"body":"makes this less useful."},{"startTime":7350.583,"endTime":7353.916,"body":"Maybe, but my point is when you exclude"},{"startTime":7353.916,"endTime":7355.916,"body":"it, know that you're excluding it, right?"},{"startTime":7355.916,"endTime":7357.041,"body":"There are reasons to exclude it."},{"startTime":7357.041,"endTime":7357.833,"body":"For example, it makes"},{"startTime":7357.833,"endTime":7360.0,"body":"the diagram harder to read."},{"startTime":7360.666,"endTime":7364.833,"body":"But in any case, here is another diagram"},{"startTime":7365.25,"endTime":7367.583,"body":"in which we can use path analysis to"},{"startTime":7367.583,"endTime":7368.833,"body":"understand what's going on."},{"startTime":7368.833,"endTime":7369.916,"body":"Now, this was motivated."},{"startTime":7370.875,"endTime":7372.5,"body":"Just so you know, very hard to read."},{"startTime":7372.541,"endTime":7373.458,"body":"Oh, of course, impossible"},{"startTime":7373.458,"endTime":7374.875,"body":"to read and I will zoom in."},{"startTime":7375.875,"endTime":7377.0,"body":"I do not wish to drag"},{"startTime":7377.0,"endTime":7378.208,"body":"this into social space."},{"startTime":7378.208,"endTime":7380.041,"body":"I don't wish to drag anyone else into it."},{"startTime":7380.041,"endTime":7382.375,"body":"But I was challenged by somebody that I"},{"startTime":7382.375,"endTime":7385.458,"body":"know and like over a claim that somebody"},{"startTime":7385.458,"endTime":7389.791,"body":"I've just met believes that the venue in"},{"startTime":7389.791,"endTime":7393.375,"body":"which Charlie Kirk was assassinated is"},{"startTime":7393.375,"endTime":7396.0,"body":"symbolic and it is"},{"startTime":7396.0,"endTime":7400.25,"body":"suggestive of a darker meaning."},{"startTime":7400.583,"endTime":7402.708,"body":"So here's the diagrams."},{"startTime":7403.333,"endTime":7404.5,"body":"That's the venue in which"},{"startTime":7404.5,"endTime":7406.25,"body":"Charlie Kirk was assassinated."},{"startTime":7406.625,"endTime":7407.375,"body":"Wait, wait, wait, but the line."},{"startTime":7408.125,"endTime":7409.458,"body":"So there's, I see three"},{"startTime":7409.458,"endTime":7411.166,"body":"colors painted onto a photograph."},{"startTime":7411.208,"endTime":7412.333,"body":"Yes, you see three colors"},{"startTime":7412.333,"endTime":7414.625,"body":"painted onto a satellite image"},{"startTime":7415.0,"endTime":7417.083,"body":"of the-- Can we see the satellite image"},{"startTime":7417.083,"endTime":7418.0,"body":"without the colors painted on them?"},{"startTime":7418.041,"endTime":7419.208,"body":"No, we can't."},{"startTime":7419.791,"endTime":7422.083,"body":"Because that pentagon is loose at best."},{"startTime":7422.125,"endTime":7422.333,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":7422.666,"endTime":7422.958,"body":"Okay."},{"startTime":7423.0,"endTime":7427.791,"body":"Okay, so this is the image that is used"},{"startTime":7427.791,"endTime":7430.208,"body":"to describe why the inscribing of the"},{"startTime":7430.208,"endTime":7432.291,"body":"pentagon, I mean of the--"},{"startTime":7433.583,"endTime":7433.791,"body":"Pentagram."},{"startTime":7434.25,"endTime":7438.0,"body":"Pentagram is being"},{"startTime":7438.0,"endTime":7439.75,"body":"suggested as something meaningful."},{"startTime":7439.75,"endTime":7441.75,"body":"And I was challenged by somebody as to"},{"startTime":7441.75,"endTime":7446.75,"body":"whether or not the fact that somebody"},{"startTime":7446.75,"endTime":7450.041,"body":"that I had spoken to, I had reposted"},{"startTime":7450.041,"endTime":7452.291,"body":"something he said, what he said was not"},{"startTime":7452.291,"endTime":7454.916,"body":"about symbolism or anything, it was about"},{"startTime":7454.916,"endTime":7456.333,"body":"his friend Charlie Kirk."},{"startTime":7456.541,"endTime":7457.875,"body":"This was somebody who knew Charlie better"},{"startTime":7457.875,"endTime":7459.666,"body":"than I did by quite a bit apparently."},{"startTime":7460.416,"endTime":7462.208,"body":"And so what I posted was you should take"},{"startTime":7462.208,"endTime":7465.458,"body":"his claims about what Charlie Kirk said"},{"startTime":7465.458,"endTime":7467.458,"body":"and thought and what Eric Kirk said and"},{"startTime":7467.458,"endTime":7469.666,"body":"thought seriously because he apparently"},{"startTime":7469.666,"endTime":7471.333,"body":"vacationed with them and"},{"startTime":7471.333,"endTime":7472.416,"body":"went to dinner with them."},{"startTime":7472.458,"endTime":7474.125,"body":"And so anyway, it's evidence."},{"startTime":7474.333,"endTime":7476.458,"body":"But anyway, somebody challenged me and"},{"startTime":7476.458,"endTime":7478.916,"body":"said, well, do you take this seriously"},{"startTime":7479.125,"endTime":7482.916,"body":"and showed the images of the pentagram"},{"startTime":7482.916,"endTime":7483.875,"body":"and blah, blah, blah."},{"startTime":7484.375,"endTime":7485.833,"body":"So you're not using names intentionally?"},{"startTime":7486.166,"endTime":7486.375,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":7486.541,"endTime":7486.625,"body":"Right?"},{"startTime":7486.625,"endTime":7490.416,"body":"Okay, so, but a guy wrote something that"},{"startTime":7490.416,"endTime":7491.291,"body":"you found compelling and"},{"startTime":7491.291,"endTime":7492.375,"body":"you directed people to it."},{"startTime":7492.625,"endTime":7494.166,"body":"He also posted something about the"},{"startTime":7494.166,"endTime":7496.833,"body":"symbolism at the venue that you haven't"},{"startTime":7496.833,"endTime":7498.666,"body":"yet said what you think of it."},{"startTime":7499.0,"endTime":7500.791,"body":"And someone said, yeah, but that's the"},{"startTime":7500.791,"endTime":7502.0,"body":"same guy who said this thing."},{"startTime":7502.375,"endTime":7503.625,"body":"Do you take that seriously?"},{"startTime":7503.625,"endTime":7503.958,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":7503.958,"endTime":7505.875,"body":"You know, if you do, then"},{"startTime":7505.875,"endTime":7506.791,"body":"you're that kind of crazy."},{"startTime":7506.791,"endTime":7508.083,"body":"And if you don't, then how could you"},{"startTime":7508.083,"endTime":7510.875,"body":"possibly be vouching for"},{"startTime":7510.875,"endTime":7512.083,"body":"this other thing that he thinks?"},{"startTime":7512.125,"endTime":7512.333,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":7512.5,"endTime":7514.291,"body":"Is that the basic landscape?"},{"startTime":7514.375,"endTime":7517.25,"body":"Yes, and I mean, I showed his tweets."},{"startTime":7517.541,"endTime":7518.916,"body":"So I think there's no reason not to"},{"startTime":7518.916,"endTime":7520.958,"body":"reveal that this is John Mappin who"},{"startTime":7520.958,"endTime":7522.5,"body":"reached out to me after"},{"startTime":7522.5,"endTime":7525.083,"body":"my discussions with Tucker"},{"startTime":7526.166,"endTime":7526.833,"body":"to tell me things I"},{"startTime":7526.833,"endTime":7527.916,"body":"didn't know about Charlie."},{"startTime":7529.583,"endTime":7532.458,"body":"Okay, so what do I do?"},{"startTime":7532.708,"endTime":7535.166,"body":"Why can I not say to my friend who"},{"startTime":7535.166,"endTime":7537.375,"body":"challenged me over, well, do you take"},{"startTime":7537.375,"endTime":7538.916,"body":"this, you know, the venue"},{"startTime":7538.916,"endTime":7542.791,"body":"was symbolic in a demonic way"},{"startTime":7544.166,"endTime":7545.791,"body":"that was in some way intentional?"},{"startTime":7545.791,"endTime":7547.166,"body":"Well, do you take that seriously?"},{"startTime":7547.875,"endTime":7550.125,"body":"And my point is the pressure to say, no,"},{"startTime":7550.125,"endTime":7551.916,"body":"I don't take that seriously is immense."},{"startTime":7553.5,"endTime":7555.416,"body":"I am not going to say I don't take it"},{"startTime":7555.416,"endTime":7557.416,"body":"seriously because of the analysis that"},{"startTime":7557.416,"endTime":7559.583,"body":"we've been showing you, the style of"},{"startTime":7559.583,"endTime":7561.5,"body":"analysis in which you"},{"startTime":7561.5,"endTime":7563.708,"body":"have various possibilities."},{"startTime":7564.5,"endTime":7566.666,"body":"And so I want to show you what I do with"},{"startTime":7566.666,"endTime":7569.0,"body":"a question like that that will cause me"},{"startTime":7569.0,"endTime":7571.0,"body":"not to answer it"},{"startTime":7571.0,"endTime":7573.958,"body":"declaratively, but to answer it."},{"startTime":7574.041,"endTime":7576.708,"body":"So not to hit the pressure release valve,"},{"startTime":7577.0,"endTime":7579.791,"body":"which most normal people would do, and"},{"startTime":7579.791,"endTime":7580.5,"body":"say, no, of course I"},{"startTime":7580.5,"endTime":7581.416,"body":"don't take that seriously."},{"startTime":7581.666,"endTime":7581.916,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":7582.5,"endTime":7586.333,"body":"So instead you create, this is the venue."},{"startTime":7587.208,"endTime":7588.625,"body":"What are the three possible"},{"startTime":7588.625,"endTime":7590.166,"body":"possibilities about the venue?"},{"startTime":7591.5,"endTime":7592.416,"body":"Right, what are the three"},{"startTime":7592.416,"endTime":7594.041,"body":"possibilities about the venue?"},{"startTime":7595.083,"endTime":7600.208,"body":"And I see I have failed to"},{"startTime":7600.208,"endTime":7603.291,"body":"input a value, which I will try."},{"startTime":7603.75,"endTime":7604.083,"body":"Wow."},{"startTime":7604.583,"endTime":7608.916,"body":"(Keyboard Clattering)"},{"startTime":7611.208,"endTime":7614.375,"body":"Okay, so I'm in select mode."},{"startTime":7614.375,"endTime":7617.083,"body":"I should be able to select that and add"},{"startTime":7617.083,"endTime":7619.916,"body":"the value, but I can't for some reason."},{"startTime":7621.5,"endTime":7623.625,"body":"So this is just dead air"},{"startTime":7623.625,"endTime":7625.458,"body":"while people are listening."},{"startTime":7626.375,"endTime":7627.625,"body":"So, all right, so then we're just gonna"},{"startTime":7627.625,"endTime":7634.541,"body":"forgive me for my failure of text."},{"startTime":7634.583,"endTime":7636.166,"body":"Back here, this is a new program, as"},{"startTime":7636.166,"endTime":7637.0,"body":"Heather points out, okay."},{"startTime":7637.25,"endTime":7637.916,"body":"Yeah, I mean, you"},{"startTime":7637.916,"endTime":7638.833,"body":"literally just created it."},{"startTime":7638.875,"endTime":7642.958,"body":"Okay, so in the space of possibilities"},{"startTime":7643.541,"endTime":7645.875,"body":"where we are asking the question as to"},{"startTime":7645.875,"endTime":7648.208,"body":"whether or not the Utah Valley University"},{"startTime":7648.208,"endTime":7652.0,"body":"venue is significant, the shape of it is"},{"startTime":7652.0,"endTime":7653.916,"body":"significant in the assassination of"},{"startTime":7653.916,"endTime":7657.541,"body":"Charlie Kirk as John Mappin asserts."},{"startTime":7658.25,"endTime":7659.625,"body":"I would argue that we"},{"startTime":7659.625,"endTime":7661.0,"body":"are in a possibility space."},{"startTime":7661.375,"endTime":7663.833,"body":"On the bottom branch here, I have the"},{"startTime":7663.833,"endTime":7665.75,"body":"possibility that I can't interpret the"},{"startTime":7665.75,"endTime":7667.5,"body":"universe I live in at all."},{"startTime":7669.25,"endTime":7671.125,"body":"I know nothing and the possibilities for"},{"startTime":7671.125,"endTime":7671.875,"body":"why I might know"},{"startTime":7671.875,"endTime":7673.5,"body":"nothing come in two flavors."},{"startTime":7674.25,"endTime":7677.541,"body":"My world is somehow false or I'm crazy."},{"startTime":7678.0,"endTime":7681.625,"body":"Now, do I think those things have any"},{"startTime":7681.625,"endTime":7683.916,"body":"significant possibility of being true?"},{"startTime":7684.291,"endTime":7685.375,"body":"Not really, I've set the"},{"startTime":7685.375,"endTime":7687.5,"body":"probability at one in 100,000."},{"startTime":7688.25,"endTime":7689.875,"body":"So it's low and I thought about setting"},{"startTime":7689.875,"endTime":7693.541,"body":"it at a million, but okay, so one in"},{"startTime":7693.541,"endTime":7696.083,"body":"100,000 is not worth worrying about here."},{"startTime":7696.083,"endTime":7699.208,"body":"So the point is what's happening in this"},{"startTime":7699.208,"endTime":7702.75,"body":"space is on this other part of the tree."},{"startTime":7704.25,"endTime":7706.416,"body":"And in fact, I should be able to just"},{"startTime":7706.416,"endTime":7707.708,"body":"delete this branch so"},{"startTime":7707.708,"endTime":7710.083,"body":"we can not focus on it."},{"startTime":7712.208,"endTime":7712.916,"body":"Stuff doesn't work as"},{"startTime":7712.916,"endTime":7714.458,"body":"it should, but okay."},{"startTime":7714.875,"endTime":7717.541,"body":"So the other two branches of the tree"},{"startTime":7717.541,"endTime":7721.625,"body":"divide between a branch in which there is"},{"startTime":7721.625,"endTime":7724.5,"body":"a supernatural creator and another branch"},{"startTime":7724.5,"endTime":7725.875,"body":"in which the universe"},{"startTime":7725.875,"endTime":7728.875,"body":"is strictly natural."},{"startTime":7729.541,"endTime":7732.041,"body":"But your p-value is way too low."},{"startTime":7732.083,"endTime":7733.291,"body":"Yeah, well, I was trying to"},{"startTime":7733.291,"endTime":7734.666,"body":"fix that just a second ago."},{"startTime":7734.666,"endTime":7735.833,"body":"That's exactly the problem."},{"startTime":7738.458,"endTime":7741.041,"body":"So, yeah."},{"startTime":7741.75,"endTime":7744.041,"body":"So anyway, I would say that the chances"},{"startTime":7744.541,"endTime":7745.625,"body":"that the universe is"},{"startTime":7745.625,"endTime":7747.208,"body":"strictly natural are 99%."},{"startTime":7747.958,"endTime":7749.166,"body":"The chances that there is a"},{"startTime":7749.166,"endTime":7751.541,"body":"supernatural creator are 1%."},{"startTime":7752.041,"endTime":7753.5,"body":"And we can argue about whether or not"},{"startTime":7753.5,"endTime":7755.041,"body":"I've set those things correctly, but you"},{"startTime":7755.041,"endTime":7756.208,"body":"get the balance of it."},{"startTime":7756.5,"endTime":7759.25,"body":"Almost all of the action, as far as I'm"},{"startTime":7759.25,"endTime":7760.5,"body":"concerned, is on the"},{"startTime":7760.5,"endTime":7763.416,"body":"strictly natural universe branch."},{"startTime":7765.416,"endTime":7767.25,"body":"And obviously other people would reverse"},{"startTime":7767.25,"endTime":7768.791,"body":"those probabilities."},{"startTime":7768.833,"endTime":7770.625,"body":"Yes, many other people would reverse"},{"startTime":7770.625,"endTime":7771.708,"body":"those probabilities."},{"startTime":7772.0,"endTime":7773.458,"body":"But what do you have downstream of"},{"startTime":7773.458,"endTime":7776.166,"body":"strictly natural universe in terms of, if"},{"startTime":7776.166,"endTime":7777.75,"body":"strictly natural universe-- I think you"},{"startTime":7777.75,"endTime":7779.458,"body":"interpret the so-called evidence about"},{"startTime":7779.458,"endTime":7781.625,"body":"the venue being evidence of demonic"},{"startTime":7781.625,"endTime":7782.5,"body":"ritual or something."},{"startTime":7782.5,"endTime":7784.75,"body":"If this is a strictly natural universe,"},{"startTime":7784.875,"endTime":7786.958,"body":"then the question of whether or not the"},{"startTime":7786.958,"endTime":7791.541,"body":"structure of the venue is meaningful and"},{"startTime":7791.541,"endTime":7793.25,"body":"symbolic depends on whether"},{"startTime":7793.25,"endTime":7795.875,"body":"the criminals who were involved--"},{"startTime":7796.375,"endTime":7797.166,"body":"And criminals, you're just"},{"startTime":7797.166,"endTime":7798.791,"body":"using mafias as a generic,"},{"startTime":7799.958,"endTime":7801.25,"body":"whatever conspiracy"},{"startTime":7801.25,"endTime":7802.416,"body":"might've been involved."},{"startTime":7802.416,"endTime":7804.583,"body":"Right, remember when in one"},{"startTime":7804.583,"endTime":7805.791,"body":"of the \"Godfather\" movies,"},{"startTime":7807.416,"endTime":7809.916,"body":"a bulletproof vest is delivered with a"},{"startTime":7809.916,"endTime":7811.958,"body":"fish in it, and somebody"},{"startTime":7811.958,"endTime":7813.708,"body":"says, \"What does this mean?\""},{"startTime":7814.375,"endTime":7816.208,"body":"And somebody responds, \"It means Luca"},{"startTime":7816.208,"endTime":7818.0,"body":"Brasi sleeps with the fishes,\" right?"},{"startTime":7818.583,"endTime":7820.375,"body":"The point is symbolism, okay?"},{"startTime":7820.708,"endTime":7824.0,"body":"So in a world where criminals use"},{"startTime":7824.0,"endTime":7828.75,"body":"symbolism, the possibility that the venue"},{"startTime":7828.75,"endTime":7832.833,"body":"is symbolic in an important way exists,"},{"startTime":7833.625,"endTime":7834.75,"body":"but I would regard it"},{"startTime":7834.75,"endTime":7837.5,"body":"as very low probability."},{"startTime":7837.875,"endTime":7838.125,"body":"Why?"},{"startTime":7838.791,"endTime":7841.333,"body":"Because what would've had to be true in"},{"startTime":7841.333,"endTime":7844.083,"body":"order for the venue's shape to be"},{"startTime":7844.083,"endTime":7845.0,"body":"important in the"},{"startTime":7845.0,"endTime":7846.375,"body":"assassination of Charlie Kirk?"},{"startTime":7846.708,"endTime":7848.833,"body":"Either it would've had to be built with"},{"startTime":7848.833,"endTime":7850.875,"body":"that in mind, knowing that either this"},{"startTime":7850.875,"endTime":7852.5,"body":"assassination was going to happen there"},{"startTime":7852.5,"endTime":7853.75,"body":"or that some other thing was going to"},{"startTime":7853.75,"endTime":7855.041,"body":"happen there, so it would've had to be,"},{"startTime":7855.416,"endTime":7857.291,"body":"the planning involved just"},{"startTime":7857.291,"endTime":7858.875,"body":"doesn't make any sense to me."},{"startTime":7858.875,"endTime":7861.75,"body":"So I think even a 2% chance that if this"},{"startTime":7861.75,"endTime":7863.833,"body":"was just a criminal enterprise, that the"},{"startTime":7863.833,"endTime":7866.208,"body":"venue means anything is incredibly--"},{"startTime":7866.958,"endTime":7867.625,"body":"I think that's generous."},{"startTime":7868.083,"endTime":7869.083,"body":"Yeah, it is generous."},{"startTime":7869.375,"endTime":7871.291,"body":"It is generous, and I should probably"},{"startTime":7871.291,"endTime":7873.875,"body":"bump it down to less than 1%."},{"startTime":7876.875,"endTime":7880.416,"body":"If we live in a purely natural universe,"},{"startTime":7881.5,"endTime":7882.958,"body":"it's also possible that criminal"},{"startTime":7882.958,"endTime":7884.916,"body":"organizations of the sort that might've"},{"startTime":7884.916,"endTime":7885.875,"body":"been involved in this"},{"startTime":7886.75,"endTime":7887.625,"body":"don't care about symbolism,"},{"startTime":7889.041,"endTime":7891.916,"body":"in which case the chances that the venue"},{"startTime":7891.916,"endTime":7894.0,"body":"means nothing are extremely high, and the"},{"startTime":7894.0,"endTime":7894.75,"body":"chances that it means"},{"startTime":7894.75,"endTime":7896.166,"body":"something are extremely low."},{"startTime":7897.083,"endTime":7898.208,"body":"If, on the other hand,"},{"startTime":7899.416,"endTime":7902.416,"body":"there is a supernatural creator who has"},{"startTime":7902.416,"endTime":7906.333,"body":"essentially unlimited powers and insight"},{"startTime":7906.333,"endTime":7909.083,"body":"in the construction of things, well then"},{"startTime":7909.083,"endTime":7913.333,"body":"the chances that God employs symbolism"},{"startTime":7913.958,"endTime":7916.166,"body":"are extremely high in my book."},{"startTime":7916.208,"endTime":7919.125,"body":"I mean, it's one of the languages of God"},{"startTime":7919.125,"endTime":7921.416,"body":"in virtually any tradition, sure."},{"startTime":7922.166,"endTime":7923.666,"body":"And so the chances then,"},{"startTime":7925.041,"endTime":7926.791,"body":"assuming a supernatural"},{"startTime":7926.791,"endTime":7928.791,"body":"creator, which I have set at 1%."},{"startTime":7929.333,"endTime":7929.708,"body":"But again, many"},{"startTime":7929.708,"endTime":7931.083,"body":"people would reverse that."},{"startTime":7931.083,"endTime":7931.791,"body":"Reverse that."},{"startTime":7932.541,"endTime":7935.541,"body":"But if there is a God, the chances that"},{"startTime":7935.541,"endTime":7938.25,"body":"God eschews symbolism are very low."},{"startTime":7938.25,"endTime":7942.0,"body":"I have it at 5%, probably way too high."},{"startTime":7942.25,"endTime":7944.416,"body":"And that God uses symbolism, I have it"},{"startTime":7944.416,"endTime":7946.875,"body":"95%, which is probably too low."},{"startTime":7947.25,"endTime":7949.791,"body":"But the point is, then the chances that"},{"startTime":7949.791,"endTime":7952.333,"body":"the venue means something go up."},{"startTime":7952.333,"endTime":7954.458,"body":"I have them at 95% and I have the chances"},{"startTime":7954.458,"endTime":7958.75,"body":"that the venue means nothing at 5%."},{"startTime":7959.5,"endTime":7963.541,"body":"Okay, but I feel like, I think this is"},{"startTime":7963.541,"endTime":7965.791,"body":"useful in terms of tracking"},{"startTime":7966.208,"endTime":7967.375,"body":"what's contingent on what."},{"startTime":7968.333,"endTime":7971.541,"body":"But there's a critical piece missing in"},{"startTime":7971.541,"endTime":7973.666,"body":"this analysis, which is that"},{"startTime":7976.75,"endTime":7981.291,"body":"that evidence of symbol was to my first"},{"startTime":7981.291,"endTime":7982.583,"body":"time seeing it, eyes"},{"startTime":7982.583,"endTime":7984.0,"body":"extraordinarily weak."},{"startTime":7984.666,"endTime":7986.083,"body":"It didn't really look like a Pentagon."},{"startTime":7986.291,"endTime":7987.666,"body":"It looked like it had been drawn onto"},{"startTime":7987.666,"endTime":7988.416,"body":"something and kind of"},{"startTime":7988.416,"endTime":7989.5,"body":"like fit into place."},{"startTime":7989.5,"endTime":7989.75,"body":"And so,"},{"startTime":7991.208,"endTime":7996.5,"body":"I like the analysis in so far as, if"},{"startTime":7996.5,"endTime":7998.166,"body":"entirely natural universe,"},{"startTime":7999.333,"endTime":8000.333,"body":"this is very unlikely"},{"startTime":8000.333,"endTime":8001.625,"body":"to mean anything at all."},{"startTime":8002.083,"endTime":8004.458,"body":"If a God created universe"},{"startTime":8004.458,"endTime":8005.916,"body":"with a God who uses symbolism,"},{"startTime":8007.333,"endTime":8008.791,"body":"then the chances get higher."},{"startTime":8009.041,"endTime":8010.916,"body":"But there still has to be some evidence"},{"startTime":8010.916,"endTime":8012.958,"body":"that there's symbol."},{"startTime":8014.0,"endTime":8016.25,"body":"And that you've sort of assumed here."},{"startTime":8016.25,"endTime":8018.541,"body":"You've assumed that the sort of painting"},{"startTime":8018.541,"endTime":8021.291,"body":"onto a picture in a, what looks to me"},{"startTime":8021.291,"endTime":8021.75,"body":"sort of like a"},{"startTime":8021.75,"endTime":8023.875,"body":"half-assed way is meaningful."},{"startTime":8023.875,"endTime":8025.0,"body":"And so I feel like that's missing."},{"startTime":8025.791,"endTime":8029.291,"body":"That's missing and I wouldn't know how to"},{"startTime":8029.291,"endTime":8031.25,"body":"begin to put a probability on,"},{"startTime":8032.291,"endTime":8033.666,"body":"oh, that pentagram"},{"startTime":8033.666,"endTime":8036.875,"body":"definitely looks like that venue."},{"startTime":8037.208,"endTime":8037.416,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":8037.416,"endTime":8038.541,"body":"Because to me, I was like, I just"},{"startTime":8038.541,"endTime":8040.0,"body":"doesn't, but I don't know, I don't know."},{"startTime":8040.0,"endTime":8042.208,"body":"Well, in fact, I think you can say even"},{"startTime":8042.208,"endTime":8046.875,"body":"more strongly that the existence of the"},{"startTime":8046.875,"endTime":8049.25,"body":"Pentagon implies that you"},{"startTime":8049.25,"endTime":8050.583,"body":"could inscribe a pentagram."},{"startTime":8051.125,"endTime":8051.666,"body":"Right, right, right."},{"startTime":8051.666,"endTime":8053.291,"body":"But as I said, when I first looked at the"},{"startTime":8053.291,"endTime":8054.166,"body":"Pentagon itself,"},{"startTime":8054.166,"endTime":8055.583,"body":"looks, it's just not there."},{"startTime":8056.041,"endTime":8057.541,"body":"Like it looks like that picture, but you"},{"startTime":8057.541,"endTime":8059.75,"body":"can't see without, like if we can't see"},{"startTime":8059.75,"endTime":8061.291,"body":"the picture without the paint, it's"},{"startTime":8061.291,"endTime":8062.458,"body":"impossible to know what it would look"},{"startTime":8062.458,"endTime":8063.166,"body":"like without the paint."},{"startTime":8063.166,"endTime":8063.541,"body":"Yep, okay."},{"startTime":8063.583,"endTime":8065.625,"body":"But it does, it looks like, it just"},{"startTime":8065.625,"endTime":8066.291,"body":"doesn't look like a pentagram."},{"startTime":8066.333,"endTime":8069.375,"body":"So the right thing to do then would be."},{"startTime":8070.0,"endTime":8071.875,"body":"But yes, if Pentagon, then pentagram, but"},{"startTime":8071.875,"endTime":8075.5,"body":"that's not a coincidence."},{"startTime":8075.5,"endTime":8077.375,"body":"That's just de facto geometry."},{"startTime":8077.791,"endTime":8080.666,"body":"Right, so the thing to do, that we have"},{"startTime":8080.666,"endTime":8082.583,"body":"now done in real time, exactly the thing"},{"startTime":8082.583,"endTime":8085.0,"body":"that the diagrams are supposed to prompt,"},{"startTime":8085.416,"endTime":8088.083,"body":"which is you have compelled me that I"},{"startTime":8088.083,"endTime":8091.708,"body":"have overrated the chances of this being"},{"startTime":8091.708,"endTime":8094.666,"body":"a symbol, even if my other probabilities"},{"startTime":8094.666,"endTime":8096.375,"body":"were defensible and that would"},{"startTime":8096.375,"endTime":8097.541,"body":"change the whole architecture."},{"startTime":8097.541,"endTime":8098.916,"body":"And that in fact, that is"},{"startTime":8098.916,"endTime":8101.75,"body":"where I think this is useful."},{"startTime":8102.0,"endTime":8103.25,"body":"So you and I had some"},{"startTime":8103.25,"endTime":8104.458,"body":"arguments about this, right?"},{"startTime":8104.666,"endTime":8105.875,"body":"Or I'm going like,"},{"startTime":8105.875,"endTime":8107.541,"body":"yeah, okay, it's a tool."},{"startTime":8107.958,"endTime":8110.041,"body":"The tool could be useful for some people."},{"startTime":8110.041,"endTime":8111.541,"body":"I think it won't, you know, I don't think"},{"startTime":8111.541,"endTime":8112.75,"body":"this kind of thing would be useful for"},{"startTime":8112.75,"endTime":8114.125,"body":"people whose brains work a particular"},{"startTime":8114.125,"endTime":8116.416,"body":"way, even if they are highly analytical."},{"startTime":8117.125,"endTime":8119.291,"body":"I think I am perhaps one of those people."},{"startTime":8121.333,"endTime":8123.208,"body":"But people will always"},{"startTime":8123.208,"endTime":8124.625,"body":"mistake the tool for the work."},{"startTime":8125.291,"endTime":8127.75,"body":"And so you hand people a tool and they"},{"startTime":8127.75,"endTime":8129.333,"body":"assume, well, now I can do the work."},{"startTime":8130.125,"endTime":8134.208,"body":"And you know, you can do the work, right?"},{"startTime":8134.666,"endTime":8136.708,"body":"So you've created a tool to help you do"},{"startTime":8136.708,"endTime":8138.625,"body":"the work, to help you keep track of your"},{"startTime":8138.625,"endTime":8143.25,"body":"own logical and intuitive understandings"},{"startTime":8143.25,"endTime":8145.583,"body":"of system so that you can go back and"},{"startTime":8145.583,"endTime":8147.041,"body":"check on what you have thought in the"},{"startTime":8147.041,"endTime":8148.541,"body":"past and may think in the future."},{"startTime":8148.916,"endTime":8150.333,"body":"You can't go back and look at what you"},{"startTime":8150.333,"endTime":8151.125,"body":"may think in the future,"},{"startTime":8151.125,"endTime":8151.833,"body":"but you know what I mean?"},{"startTime":8154.375,"endTime":8156.583,"body":"You will retain the knowledge that this"},{"startTime":8156.583,"endTime":8162.75,"body":"is a tool that exists at your bequest for"},{"startTime":8162.75,"endTime":8164.916,"body":"your use and cannot do"},{"startTime":8164.916,"endTime":8166.208,"body":"your thinking for you."},{"startTime":8166.833,"endTime":8169.583,"body":"But almost everyone using tools at some"},{"startTime":8169.583,"endTime":8172.416,"body":"point forgets that the tools are only as"},{"startTime":8172.416,"endTime":8174.208,"body":"good as the inputs and"},{"startTime":8174.208,"endTime":8175.708,"body":"the people using the tools."},{"startTime":8175.708,"endTime":8180.625,"body":"All right, which points to in the world"},{"startTime":8180.625,"endTime":8183.166,"body":"of phylogeny, which was the diagram"},{"startTime":8183.166,"endTime":8186.208,"body":"inspiration for writing things out this"},{"startTime":8186.208,"endTime":8188.166,"body":"way, we have two"},{"startTime":8188.166,"endTime":8188.958,"body":"different kinds of tools."},{"startTime":8189.5,"endTime":8191.416,"body":"We have analytical tools where you feed"},{"startTime":8191.416,"endTime":8196.625,"body":"in a data set, and it tells you what the"},{"startTime":8196.625,"endTime":8199.25,"body":"most parsimonious way to arrange the"},{"startTime":8199.25,"endTime":8202.416,"body":"species on the tree is based"},{"startTime":8202.416,"endTime":8204.25,"body":"on the data you have given it."},{"startTime":8204.25,"endTime":8205.333,"body":"It's an analytical tool."},{"startTime":8205.833,"endTime":8207.833,"body":"And then we have graphical tools in which"},{"startTime":8207.833,"endTime":8210.041,"body":"you can put any two species next to each"},{"startTime":8210.041,"endTime":8212.333,"body":"other, and you can propose that this is"},{"startTime":8212.333,"endTime":8214.083,"body":"actually how I think these things evolved"},{"startTime":8214.083,"endTime":8215.166,"body":"rather than that way."},{"startTime":8215.791,"endTime":8217.166,"body":"And so what you're pointing to, which I"},{"startTime":8217.166,"endTime":8220.541,"body":"100% agree with, is that this tool is a"},{"startTime":8220.541,"endTime":8224.041,"body":"tool for you to make your own thinking"},{"startTime":8224.041,"endTime":8227.083,"body":"more complete and to force you to put"},{"startTime":8227.083,"endTime":8229.791,"body":"explicit probabilities on things."},{"startTime":8230.375,"endTime":8231.375,"body":"Nothing says that your"},{"startTime":8231.375,"endTime":8232.5,"body":"intuition is any good."},{"startTime":8233.125,"endTime":8233.333,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":8233.833,"endTime":8234.791,"body":"Not nothing here."},{"startTime":8234.833,"endTime":8236.208,"body":"It is a visualization tool,"},{"startTime":8237.541,"endTime":8238.833,"body":"an important distinction now."},{"startTime":8238.833,"endTime":8240.583,"body":"And I think this is part of why, and this"},{"startTime":8240.583,"endTime":8242.5,"body":"is inside baseball here, but I think part"},{"startTime":8242.5,"endTime":8245.333,"body":"of the reason why I object to comparing"},{"startTime":8245.333,"endTime":8247.5,"body":"this to like a phylogeny visualization"},{"startTime":8247.5,"endTime":8249.75,"body":"program like McLean, which we used to"},{"startTime":8249.75,"endTime":8253.375,"body":"use, is that when you are drawing a"},{"startTime":8253.375,"endTime":8255.708,"body":"possible set of relationships between"},{"startTime":8255.708,"endTime":8257.5,"body":"species, a so-called phylogenetic tree,"},{"startTime":8258.833,"endTime":8261.166,"body":"you never presume or claim that you have"},{"startTime":8261.166,"endTime":8262.041,"body":"included everything."},{"startTime":8262.666,"endTime":8264.375,"body":"There is no complete tree of life."},{"startTime":8264.666,"endTime":8266.208,"body":"It just never has existed."},{"startTime":8266.208,"endTime":8267.166,"body":"It's too much, right?"},{"startTime":8267.75,"endTime":8269.416,"body":"And so you always know that you are"},{"startTime":8269.416,"endTime":8271.625,"body":"excluding some things and you are"},{"startTime":8271.625,"endTime":8272.875,"body":"therefore making no claims"},{"startTime":8272.875,"endTime":8274.25,"body":"about those relationships."},{"startTime":8274.25,"endTime":8275.375,"body":"They just aren't on there."},{"startTime":8275.375,"endTime":8277.625,"body":"If you say, \"Look, on this tree of life,"},{"startTime":8277.875,"endTime":8279.25,"body":"\"cats and dogs are more closely related"},{"startTime":8279.25,"endTime":8280.5,"body":"to each other \"than either are"},{"startTime":8280.5,"endTime":8282.708,"body":"to mice,\" you're like, \"What?"},{"startTime":8282.708,"endTime":8283.541,"body":"\"What about hyenas?"},{"startTime":8284.25,"endTime":8285.208,"body":"\"Like, what about hyenas?"},{"startTime":8285.208,"endTime":8287.0,"body":"\"If I add hyenas, then cats and hyenas"},{"startTime":8287.0,"endTime":8287.625,"body":"\"are more closely related"},{"startTime":8287.625,"endTime":8288.416,"body":"to each other than dogs."},{"startTime":8288.708,"endTime":8290.25,"body":"\"I didn't make a claim about hyenas."},{"startTime":8290.25,"endTime":8292.208,"body":"\"Therefore, their absence from the"},{"startTime":8292.208,"endTime":8293.791,"body":"hypothesis \"of relationship that is the"},{"startTime":8293.791,"endTime":8297.166,"body":"tree is not information.\""},{"startTime":8297.458,"endTime":8297.666,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":8298.625,"endTime":8301.375,"body":"Whereas on the sort of path analysis tool"},{"startTime":8301.375,"endTime":8303.708,"body":"that you have created, you are"},{"startTime":8303.708,"endTime":8305.916,"body":"attempting, and I think in most cases"},{"startTime":8305.916,"endTime":8307.958,"body":"that you have shared today, have"},{"startTime":8307.958,"endTime":8310.708,"body":"succeeded in describing the complete"},{"startTime":8310.708,"endTime":8313.541,"body":"solution set, the scope of possibilities,"},{"startTime":8314.291,"endTime":8315.958,"body":"and it is actually necessary"},{"startTime":8315.958,"endTime":8318.416,"body":"for the meaning to be made."},{"startTime":8318.833,"endTime":8320.791,"body":"Because if you simply exclude something"},{"startTime":8320.958,"endTime":8323.291,"body":"from what is possible, and then you put,"},{"startTime":8323.5,"endTime":8324.875,"body":"you know, then your probability is up to"},{"startTime":8324.875,"endTime":8328.166,"body":"one, there's a lie there somewhere."},{"startTime":8328.375,"endTime":8329.291,"body":"There's a falsehood."},{"startTime":8329.666,"endTime":8331.333,"body":"Right, there's at least an"},{"startTime":8331.333,"endTime":8333.0,"body":"assumption that's unstated."},{"startTime":8333.0,"endTime":8333.666,"body":"And I agree with you."},{"startTime":8333.666,"endTime":8335.416,"body":"And I must say, I've lost my diagram"},{"startTime":8335.5,"endTime":8337.416,"body":"because the probability of the program"},{"startTime":8337.416,"endTime":8340.791,"body":"has not preserved the state in the tab."},{"startTime":8340.875,"endTime":8341.583,"body":"But anyway, I will fix"},{"startTime":8341.583,"endTime":8343.125,"body":"that down the road here."},{"startTime":8343.833,"endTime":8346.375,"body":"I will just say that I cautioned you."},{"startTime":8347.166,"endTime":8349.041,"body":"So you just created this two days ago."},{"startTime":8349.041,"endTime":8350.458,"body":"It's too early to share this."},{"startTime":8351.083,"endTime":8352.166,"body":"It is too early to share it."},{"startTime":8352.166,"endTime":8352.375,"body":"Yes."},{"startTime":8353.666,"endTime":8355.166,"body":"But anyway, I think the"},{"startTime":8355.166,"endTime":8356.541,"body":"discussion so far has been good."},{"startTime":8356.791,"endTime":8358.125,"body":"There's a couple of things I wanted to"},{"startTime":8358.125,"endTime":8359.0,"body":"highlight though, one of"},{"startTime":8359.0,"endTime":8360.625,"body":"which we've already hinted at."},{"startTime":8360.625,"endTime":8363.25,"body":"That the danger of being socially"},{"startTime":8363.25,"endTime":8365.958,"body":"pressured into falsely closing off a"},{"startTime":8365.958,"endTime":8367.583,"body":"possibility, the difference between"},{"startTime":8367.583,"endTime":8370.583,"body":"setting a possibility at one in a"},{"startTime":8370.583,"endTime":8373.291,"body":"thousand or one in 10,000 versus closing"},{"startTime":8373.291,"endTime":8374.291,"body":"it off and forgetting it"},{"startTime":8374.291,"endTime":8377.041,"body":"ever existed is profound."},{"startTime":8378.041,"endTime":8380.958,"body":"And it is also, you know, as you and I"},{"startTime":8380.958,"endTime":8382.083,"body":"talked about earlier today,"},{"startTime":8383.125,"endTime":8384.875,"body":"the, in normal life,"},{"startTime":8386.125,"endTime":8388.208,"body":"you have to just close off possibilities."},{"startTime":8388.458,"endTime":8389.916,"body":"It's part of being functional."},{"startTime":8390.333,"endTime":8392.666,"body":"And so we have the circuit in us, which"},{"startTime":8392.666,"endTime":8395.208,"body":"is like, yeah, I already decided, you"},{"startTime":8395.208,"endTime":8396.833,"body":"know, at the point that you've picked the"},{"startTime":8396.833,"endTime":8398.416,"body":"thing you're gonna eat off the menu,"},{"startTime":8399.416,"endTime":8400.458,"body":"keeping alive all of the"},{"startTime":8400.458,"endTime":8401.958,"body":"things that you might have ordered."},{"startTime":8401.958,"endTime":8402.5,"body":"The way it shows up,"},{"startTime":8402.5,"endTime":8403.5,"body":"here we got a new special."},{"startTime":8403.5,"endTime":8404.583,"body":"Like, I don't care."},{"startTime":8404.583,"endTime":8404.958,"body":"I don't care."},{"startTime":8404.958,"endTime":8405.666,"body":"I don't care anymore."},{"startTime":8405.666,"endTime":8406.791,"body":"I don't care what's more."},{"startTime":8406.791,"endTime":8408.416,"body":"I'd rather not remember the thing I"},{"startTime":8408.416,"endTime":8410.0,"body":"decided not to order because I don't want"},{"startTime":8410.0,"endTime":8411.166,"body":"to be disappointed in the thing I got."},{"startTime":8411.583,"endTime":8412.875,"body":"So, you know, so"},{"startTime":8412.875,"endTime":8413.791,"body":"anyway, the point is normal."},{"startTime":8414.083,"endTime":8415.583,"body":"This is what brand loyalty is about too."},{"startTime":8415.958,"endTime":8417.0,"body":"It's not like, that's the best."},{"startTime":8417.0,"endTime":8418.125,"body":"It's like the decision is made."},{"startTime":8418.208,"endTime":8418.416,"body":"Right."},{"startTime":8419.166,"endTime":8419.833,"body":"The decision is made"},{"startTime":8419.833,"endTime":8420.875,"body":"or the decision is made."},{"startTime":8420.875,"endTime":8421.791,"body":"I'm going to Costco."},{"startTime":8421.791,"endTime":8423.5,"body":"We'll see which two things they have and"},{"startTime":8423.5,"endTime":8424.333,"body":"choose between them."},{"startTime":8424.333,"endTime":8425.833,"body":"But I'm not, you know, I'm"},{"startTime":8425.833,"endTime":8427.583,"body":"not going to Amazon, right?"},{"startTime":8428.083,"endTime":8429.166,"body":"Where everything is available."},{"startTime":8429.166,"endTime":8433.5,"body":"So anyway, the tendency for normal people"},{"startTime":8433.5,"endTime":8435.458,"body":"in order to function, to close off"},{"startTime":8435.458,"endTime":8437.25,"body":"possibilities and walk away from them and"},{"startTime":8437.25,"endTime":8438.875,"body":"try not to think about them again is"},{"startTime":8438.875,"endTime":8440.416,"body":"powerful and completely understandable."},{"startTime":8440.791,"endTime":8442.375,"body":"In fact, you probably are more functional"},{"startTime":8442.375,"endTime":8444.5,"body":"in normal life if you're good at just"},{"startTime":8444.5,"endTime":8445.791,"body":"pruning things from the"},{"startTime":8445.791,"endTime":8446.875,"body":"tree and walking away."},{"startTime":8447.416,"endTime":8450.416,"body":"But in terms of being logical in the"},{"startTime":8450.416,"endTime":8452.916,"body":"midst of the Cartesian crisis, when"},{"startTime":8452.916,"endTime":8454.458,"body":"things are contentious, when there is"},{"startTime":8454.458,"endTime":8457.708,"body":"vast pressure to, well, you know, you"},{"startTime":8457.708,"endTime":8459.166,"body":"admit that the vaccines are safe."},{"startTime":8461.125,"endTime":8463.0,"body":"Sorry, I can't admit that"},{"startTime":8463.0,"endTime":8465.208,"body":"because I know too much, right?"},{"startTime":8465.208,"endTime":8466.666,"body":"The point is you've got a world of"},{"startTime":8466.666,"endTime":8469.416,"body":"possibilities that are ugly, that are"},{"startTime":8469.416,"endTime":8471.083,"body":"frightening, that are"},{"startTime":8471.083,"endTime":8474.541,"body":"sometimes falsely introduced."},{"startTime":8475.041,"endTime":8476.833,"body":"You know, can somebody pollute your tree"},{"startTime":8477.0,"endTime":8478.25,"body":"by flooding the zone"},{"startTime":8478.25,"endTime":8479.666,"body":"with garbage possibilities?"},{"startTime":8480.25,"endTime":8480.458,"body":"Sure."},{"startTime":8480.708,"endTime":8484.166,"body":"So trying to figure out how to do this in"},{"startTime":8484.166,"endTime":8485.916,"body":"an elegant enough way that you can"},{"startTime":8485.916,"endTime":8487.625,"body":"remember what you thought, why you"},{"startTime":8487.625,"endTime":8489.0,"body":"thought it, and why you now think"},{"startTime":8489.0,"endTime":8490.791,"body":"something different is"},{"startTime":8490.791,"endTime":8492.125,"body":"a truly important skill."},{"startTime":8492.375,"endTime":8494.708,"body":"So falsely closing, falsely setting"},{"startTime":8494.708,"endTime":8496.583,"body":"something that has a low probability to"},{"startTime":8496.583,"endTime":8498.583,"body":"zero in order to simplify your thinking"},{"startTime":8498.583,"endTime":8500.25,"body":"life is a bad habit."},{"startTime":8500.708,"endTime":8502.5,"body":"And-- Yeah, and so I would say,"},{"startTime":8503.708,"endTime":8506.208,"body":"if we talked about future iterations of"},{"startTime":8506.208,"endTime":8507.791,"body":"this app you're building,"},{"startTime":8509.083,"endTime":8511.666,"body":"say you have something for which there"},{"startTime":8511.666,"endTime":8514.916,"body":"are, you know, five possible outcomes."},{"startTime":8516.916,"endTime":8518.416,"body":"And three of them you've decided really"},{"startTime":8518.625,"endTime":8520.458,"body":"the possibilities are vanishingly small."},{"startTime":8521.125,"endTime":8522.708,"body":"You don't reduce them to zero and get rid"},{"startTime":8522.708,"endTime":8525.625,"body":"of them entirely, and thus lose track of"},{"startTime":8525.625,"endTime":8527.208,"body":"them ever having been possibilities"},{"startTime":8529.125,"endTime":8530.75,"body":"because it's rare that you actually know"},{"startTime":8530.75,"endTime":8532.0,"body":"for sure that's a zero."},{"startTime":8533.0,"endTime":8535.083,"body":"Zeros and ones are very hard to come by"},{"startTime":8535.083,"endTime":8536.333,"body":"in probability space."},{"startTime":8537.083,"endTime":8539.583,"body":"Zero, you know, point, 10 to the negative"},{"startTime":8539.583,"endTime":8541.708,"body":"six as you put in one of those."},{"startTime":8542.333,"endTime":8544.041,"body":"Yeah, but that's different from zero."},{"startTime":8544.416,"endTime":8545.666,"body":"It's different from zero."},{"startTime":8545.708,"endTime":8549.291,"body":"And so, you know, I would love to see a"},{"startTime":8549.291,"endTime":8552.958,"body":"beautiful sort of visually useful version"},{"startTime":8552.958,"endTime":8555.041,"body":"of this in which the"},{"startTime":8555.041,"endTime":8557.583,"body":"probability scales is on a gray scale."},{"startTime":8557.833,"endTime":8559.875,"body":"So something that's very unlikely is"},{"startTime":8559.875,"endTime":8562.625,"body":"closer to white on white and the closer"},{"startTime":8562.625,"endTime":8564.958,"body":"to one it is is black on white."},{"startTime":8565.791,"endTime":8567.666,"body":"And it's just much more visible."},{"startTime":8567.916,"endTime":8569.125,"body":"So that, you know, from any kind of a"},{"startTime":8569.125,"endTime":8571.083,"body":"distance you can see, okay, what at this"},{"startTime":8571.083,"endTime":8573.083,"body":"moment in time, the probabilities I'm"},{"startTime":8573.083,"endTime":8574.208,"body":"assigning to this, what"},{"startTime":8574.208,"endTime":8575.5,"body":"do I think is most true?"},{"startTime":8575.5,"endTime":8576.5,"body":"Okay, I can see it."},{"startTime":8577.0,"endTime":8579.5,"body":"But what is also still possible, even"},{"startTime":8579.5,"endTime":8580.875,"body":"though I don't think it's true right now,"},{"startTime":8580.875,"endTime":8582.458,"body":"you can still see the things, but they're"},{"startTime":8582.458,"endTime":8583.458,"body":"not what draw your eye."},{"startTime":8583.708,"endTime":8585.416,"body":"And that is in fact how our brains work"},{"startTime":8585.416,"endTime":8586.375,"body":"when they're working best."},{"startTime":8586.75,"endTime":8588.25,"body":"I can still see the whole possibility"},{"startTime":8588.25,"endTime":8589.75,"body":"space, but this is"},{"startTime":8589.75,"endTime":8590.708,"body":"where I think it's gonna be."},{"startTime":8591.083,"endTime":8592.625,"body":"This is the line that I"},{"startTime":8592.625,"endTime":8594.041,"body":"think the truth is gonna be on."},{"startTime":8594.041,"endTime":8596.333,"body":"So I'm gonna go there even though these"},{"startTime":8596.333,"endTime":8597.208,"body":"are still out there."},{"startTime":8597.208,"endTime":8598.875,"body":"I know they are, but I don't need to"},{"startTime":8598.875,"endTime":8600.625,"body":"focus there right now because I know"},{"startTime":8600.625,"endTime":8601.416,"body":"they'll be there if I"},{"startTime":8601.416,"endTime":8602.166,"body":"ever need to come back."},{"startTime":8602.625,"endTime":8602.833,"body":"Yep,"},{"startTime":8603.875,"endTime":8608.166,"body":"I would also argue that if you had two"},{"startTime":8608.166,"endTime":8610.041,"body":"groups of people, you had one group of"},{"startTime":8610.041,"endTime":8612.083,"body":"people that was committed to doing that,"},{"startTime":8612.666,"endTime":8614.666,"body":"maintaining an awareness of what they"},{"startTime":8614.666,"endTime":8616.416,"body":"once thought possible."},{"startTime":8618.166,"endTime":8620.708,"body":"And one group that prunes the tree down"},{"startTime":8620.708,"endTime":8622.583,"body":"to what they now think is likely, what"},{"startTime":8622.583,"endTime":8624.333,"body":"you're describing actually happened in"},{"startTime":8624.333,"endTime":8626.583,"body":"biology classes as people became"},{"startTime":8626.583,"endTime":8628.666,"body":"committed to their interpretation rather"},{"startTime":8628.666,"endTime":8634.5,"body":"than remaining open to the full solution"},{"startTime":8634.5,"endTime":8635.541,"body":"set, even if they now"},{"startTime":8635.541,"endTime":8636.75,"body":"believe this thing is likely."},{"startTime":8637.0,"endTime":8638.875,"body":"Of what topic we're talking about?"},{"startTime":8640.0,"endTime":8641.25,"body":"Which you're describing with the 20"},{"startTime":8641.25,"endTime":8643.083,"body":"questions exercise where people become"},{"startTime":8643.083,"endTime":8644.541,"body":"very committed to one interpretation."},{"startTime":8646.5,"endTime":8649.041,"body":"It doesn't matter, it's not central."},{"startTime":8649.041,"endTime":8650.916,"body":"But the point is, I would like to have"},{"startTime":8650.916,"endTime":8653.75,"body":"discussions only with people who"},{"startTime":8653.75,"endTime":8658.166,"body":"implicitly or explicitly enter with the"},{"startTime":8658.166,"endTime":8659.0,"body":"awareness that they are"},{"startTime":8659.0,"endTime":8660.916,"body":"perfectly certain of nothing, right?"},{"startTime":8661.291,"endTime":8662.5,"body":"And I think you can just say that."},{"startTime":8662.875,"endTime":8665.208,"body":"Am I perfectly certain that I exist?"},{"startTime":8665.666,"endTime":8668.208,"body":"No, I'd put it at one in 100,000, one in"},{"startTime":8668.208,"endTime":8670.75,"body":"a million, maybe less that I don't exist"},{"startTime":8670.75,"endTime":8672.666,"body":"and I'm not just perceiving the universe"},{"startTime":8672.666,"endTime":8673.833,"body":"in the way I think I am."},{"startTime":8674.416,"endTime":8678.083,"body":"But you can't rule out the possibility"},{"startTime":8678.375,"endTime":8679.541,"body":"that some kind of"},{"startTime":8679.541,"endTime":8681.208,"body":"insanity would feel like this."},{"startTime":8681.25,"endTime":8683.833,"body":"But that also doesn't mean that"},{"startTime":8683.833,"endTime":8686.625,"body":"maintaining that as an extremely low"},{"startTime":8686.625,"endTime":8688.083,"body":"probability possibility"},{"startTime":8688.583,"endTime":8690.208,"body":"warrants any of your attention."},{"startTime":8690.916,"endTime":8692.333,"body":"Well, no, no, I would argue--"},{"startTime":8692.375,"endTime":8695.125,"body":"Like it can be in, I think a utility of"},{"startTime":8695.125,"endTime":8698.416,"body":"this app that you're building is that you"},{"startTime":8698.416,"endTime":8699.625,"body":"can have it on the visual"},{"startTime":8699.625,"endTime":8701.708,"body":"and be like, yep, great,"},{"startTime":8702.708,"endTime":8705.5,"body":"I just don't need to worry about it."},{"startTime":8705.583,"endTime":8707.541,"body":"Okay, but then the point is, I'm a big"},{"startTime":8707.541,"endTime":8709.0,"body":"fan of rules of the door."},{"startTime":8709.5,"endTime":8710.958,"body":"Rules of the door for an analytical"},{"startTime":8710.958,"endTime":8712.958,"body":"discussion is perfect"},{"startTime":8712.958,"endTime":8714.708,"body":"certainty is never warranted."},{"startTime":8715.958,"endTime":8717.166,"body":"Perfect certainty is"},{"startTime":8717.166,"endTime":8718.5,"body":"never warranted, right?"},{"startTime":8718.75,"endTime":8720.458,"body":"You can act based on the fact that this"},{"startTime":8720.458,"endTime":8722.458,"body":"is the right way, this is the best bet,"},{"startTime":8722.916,"endTime":8725.375,"body":"but if you have perfect certainty in your"},{"startTime":8725.375,"endTime":8726.75,"body":"mind of anything, including your own"},{"startTime":8726.75,"endTime":8728.208,"body":"identity, you've"},{"startTime":8728.208,"endTime":8729.458,"body":"started off on the wrong foot."},{"startTime":8729.958,"endTime":8730.625,"body":"So anyway, yeah, it"},{"startTime":8730.625,"endTime":8731.791,"body":"doesn't belong in every diagram."},{"startTime":8732.0,"endTime":8733.666,"body":"In fact, it belongs on no diagrams."},{"startTime":8733.666,"endTime":8735.333,"body":"It belongs as an assumption of the fact"},{"startTime":8735.333,"endTime":8737.0,"body":"that you're sitting down to diagram"},{"startTime":8737.0,"endTime":8738.625,"body":"probabilities, okay?"},{"startTime":8739.583,"endTime":8740.208,"body":"All right, the other"},{"startTime":8740.208,"endTime":8741.166,"body":"thing I wanted to add"},{"startTime":8742.541,"endTime":8746.416,"body":"was in thinking about these sorts of"},{"startTime":8746.416,"endTime":8749.5,"body":"issues, I believe in our discussion this"},{"startTime":8749.5,"endTime":8752.666,"body":"morning that we actually happened onto"},{"startTime":8752.666,"endTime":8755.875,"body":"something useful in"},{"startTime":8755.875,"endTime":8757.416,"body":"another contentious quadrant."},{"startTime":8758.416,"endTime":8760.5,"body":"There's a very live debate"},{"startTime":8761.041,"endTime":8764.791,"body":"about what the essence of woke is."},{"startTime":8765.041,"endTime":8766.833,"body":"There's obviously a major accusation"},{"startTime":8766.833,"endTime":8768.166,"body":"about the woke right"},{"startTime":8769.208,"endTime":8771.75,"body":"and claims about what it means that they"},{"startTime":8771.75,"endTime":8772.958,"body":"are woke and things like that."},{"startTime":8773.833,"endTime":8777.208,"body":"And I think in talking about the pressure"},{"startTime":8777.75,"endTime":8782.125,"body":"to close off possibilities prematurely or"},{"startTime":8782.125,"endTime":8785.583,"body":"close them off without a proper"},{"startTime":8785.583,"endTime":8786.833,"body":"evidentiary basis that"},{"startTime":8786.833,"endTime":8788.0,"body":"they are truly impossible,"},{"startTime":8789.458,"endTime":8794.041,"body":"that the reality of what the essence of"},{"startTime":8794.041,"endTime":8796.791,"body":"woke is became clear, something I had"},{"startTime":8796.791,"endTime":8799.0,"body":"thought loosely had became very concrete."},{"startTime":8800.166,"endTime":8803.375,"body":"And the idea is in a social environment,"},{"startTime":8803.708,"endTime":8807.958,"body":"let's say it's medicine or the academy,"},{"startTime":8809.166,"endTime":8811.916,"body":"there is a set of beliefs."},{"startTime":8812.208,"endTime":8814.0,"body":"Let's say it's medicine and the beliefs"},{"startTime":8814.0,"endTime":8817.666,"body":"are vaccines are very safe."},{"startTime":8820.125,"endTime":8824.791,"body":"And then evidence causes a subset of the"},{"startTime":8824.791,"endTime":8828.083,"body":"people in that milieu to doubt, something"},{"startTime":8828.083,"endTime":8830.791,"body":"happens, enough doctors see a patient"},{"startTime":8830.791,"endTime":8833.791,"body":"regress and they say, yeah, that's not"},{"startTime":8833.791,"endTime":8835.291,"body":"related to the vaccine, but then it"},{"startTime":8835.291,"endTime":8838.083,"body":"happens again, enough people begin to get"},{"startTime":8838.083,"endTime":8839.375,"body":"the sense that something is not right."},{"startTime":8841.375,"endTime":8845.791,"body":"The pressure to get those people to"},{"startTime":8845.791,"endTime":8850.0,"body":"either reverse course and reverse what"},{"startTime":8850.0,"endTime":8853.125,"body":"they now know or to be perfectly silent"},{"startTime":8853.125,"endTime":8856.416,"body":"about what they know in order to maintain"},{"startTime":8856.416,"endTime":8860.208,"body":"the consensus is extremely powerful."},{"startTime":8860.75,"endTime":8862.416,"body":"And so what I'm gonna claim, what I've"},{"startTime":8862.416,"endTime":8866.666,"body":"said to James Lindsay and my intervention"},{"startTime":8866.666,"endTime":8869.208,"body":"with him was that the"},{"startTime":8869.208,"endTime":8872.166,"body":"essence of woke is cancellation."},{"startTime":8873.625,"endTime":8875.583,"body":"And that I don't think that term applies"},{"startTime":8875.583,"endTime":8877.625,"body":"to anybody who's not trying to shut down"},{"startTime":8877.625,"endTime":8879.0,"body":"the voice of others, but"},{"startTime":8879.0,"endTime":8880.416,"body":"I think it's two pieces."},{"startTime":8880.791,"endTime":8884.166,"body":"There's banish, we're not gonna platform"},{"startTime":8884.166,"endTime":8885.083,"body":"you because you've lost"},{"startTime":8885.083,"endTime":8887.5,"body":"your mind and there's coercion."},{"startTime":8888.083,"endTime":8889.625,"body":"We're gonna get you back"},{"startTime":8889.625,"endTime":8891.083,"body":"on board with the consensus."},{"startTime":8891.958,"endTime":8892.791,"body":"And those two things"},{"startTime":8892.791,"endTime":8893.875,"body":"are basically a choice."},{"startTime":8893.875,"endTime":8895.0,"body":"Either you get back on board with the"},{"startTime":8895.0,"endTime":8896.416,"body":"consensus or you're out."},{"startTime":8896.75,"endTime":8900.0,"body":"I would argue that those two things are"},{"startTime":8900.0,"endTime":8905.125,"body":"the essential core of wokeness and that"},{"startTime":8905.125,"endTime":8909.333,"body":"it is the artificial closing off of live"},{"startTime":8909.333,"endTime":8911.416,"body":"possibilities that is"},{"startTime":8911.416,"endTime":8912.875,"body":"the uniting feature."},{"startTime":8913.833,"endTime":8916.291,"body":"We're either gonna frighten you into"},{"startTime":8916.291,"endTime":8917.416,"body":"saying, say the words"},{"startTime":8917.416,"endTime":8919.583,"body":"vaccines are safe, right?"},{"startTime":8920.208,"endTime":8923.458,"body":"Or if you don't say that, I'm sorry, he"},{"startTime":8923.458,"endTime":8926.083,"body":"used to be a pretty good doctor until he"},{"startTime":8926.083,"endTime":8929.75,"body":"became an anti-vaxxer, right?"},{"startTime":8930.166,"endTime":8930.875,"body":"Something like that."},{"startTime":8931.833,"endTime":8935.166,"body":"So it is that thing, close down that"},{"startTime":8935.166,"endTime":8937.875,"body":"possibility or else and the or else"},{"startTime":8937.875,"endTime":8940.0,"body":"involves ejecting you."},{"startTime":8940.0,"endTime":8940.916,"body":"We're not gonna platform you,"},{"startTime":8940.916,"endTime":8941.958,"body":"you're not gonna talk to you."},{"startTime":8942.916,"endTime":8944.208,"body":"I will come after you in the courts,"},{"startTime":8944.708,"endTime":8945.625,"body":"look, use your fraud,"},{"startTime":8945.625,"endTime":8946.416,"body":"whatever we're gonna do."},{"startTime":8946.958,"endTime":8949.0,"body":"So it is that social phenomenon which is"},{"startTime":8949.0,"endTime":8950.916,"body":"totally non-analytic."},{"startTime":8951.958,"endTime":8954.375,"body":"We saw it over and over and over again,"},{"startTime":8954.5,"endTime":8956.916,"body":"explicitly at Evergreen in the meltdown"},{"startTime":8956.916,"endTime":8958.541,"body":"almost nine years ago."},{"startTime":8959.083,"endTime":8961.541,"body":"You saw a couple of very explicit"},{"startTime":8961.541,"endTime":8966.791,"body":"personal examples in which young people"},{"startTime":8966.791,"endTime":8968.125,"body":"whom you did not know"},{"startTime":8969.75,"endTime":8970.541,"body":"tried to speak to you."},{"startTime":8972.375,"endTime":8974.0,"body":"You were interested in talking to anyone"},{"startTime":8974.0,"endTime":8976.708,"body":"who would talk as opposed to yell and"},{"startTime":8976.708,"endTime":8978.083,"body":"scream and just shout"},{"startTime":8978.083,"endTime":8979.291,"body":"epithets and accusations."},{"startTime":8980.875,"endTime":8985.041,"body":"And several, as I remember, of the young"},{"startTime":8985.041,"endTime":8988.0,"body":"people who wanted to speak to you came"},{"startTime":8988.0,"endTime":8989.708,"body":"away from those conversations thinking,"},{"startTime":8990.083,"endTime":8992.583,"body":"well, wait a minute, that's not what I"},{"startTime":8992.583,"endTime":8993.625,"body":"was told that was gonna be."},{"startTime":8994.291,"endTime":8996.916,"body":"He treated me with respect and doesn't"},{"startTime":8996.916,"endTime":8997.75,"body":"seem to be a racist,"},{"startTime":8997.75,"endTime":9001.125,"body":"there's no bigotry and, it's odd."},{"startTime":9001.916,"endTime":9004.041,"body":"And then you saw them re-educated"},{"startTime":9006.583,"endTime":9011.875,"body":"when they refused to continue to shout"},{"startTime":9012.125,"endTime":9017.5,"body":"the maxims of the revolution as it was"},{"startTime":9017.5,"endTime":9018.708,"body":"happening in front of us."},{"startTime":9019.791,"endTime":9023.875,"body":"So I think your encapsulation of what"},{"startTime":9023.875,"endTime":9028.041,"body":"woke is is born of a very particular set"},{"startTime":9028.041,"endTime":9032.416,"body":"of extreme circumstances that really did"},{"startTime":9032.416,"endTime":9036.625,"body":"encapsulate what it is that they do."},{"startTime":9036.625,"endTime":9041.833,"body":"What it is the main weaponry of the woke."},{"startTime":9043.583,"endTime":9044.875,"body":"It's, you know,"},{"startTime":9047.791,"endTime":9052.0,"body":"recollect or exercise."},{"startTime":9052.333,"endTime":9054.5,"body":"Yeah, we're gonna intimidate you into"},{"startTime":9054.5,"endTime":9057.25,"body":"rejoining the fold and saying the things,"},{"startTime":9057.875,"endTime":9059.583,"body":"or we're gonna exile you."},{"startTime":9060.916,"endTime":9063.041,"body":"Now, what I'm saying here"},{"startTime":9063.041,"endTime":9064.458,"body":"is that woke is two things."},{"startTime":9064.791,"endTime":9066.916,"body":"One, woke is an ideology, which is only"},{"startTime":9066.916,"endTime":9072.041,"body":"applicable in the one case of the woke"},{"startTime":9072.041,"endTime":9073.958,"body":"revolution and its various beliefs about"},{"startTime":9073.958,"endTime":9075.166,"body":"race and about trans"},{"startTime":9075.166,"endTime":9076.791,"body":"and about those things."},{"startTime":9077.166,"endTime":9078.75,"body":"And then there's woke, the toolkit."},{"startTime":9079.541,"endTime":9082.0,"body":"And the toolkit is wielded by others."},{"startTime":9082.041,"endTime":9084.791,"body":"We certainly saw it work during COVID."},{"startTime":9085.208,"endTime":9088.625,"body":"And in fact, at the time I called some"},{"startTime":9088.625,"endTime":9090.75,"body":"people medically woke because their idea"},{"startTime":9090.75,"endTime":9092.958,"body":"was those beliefs of yours are"},{"startTime":9092.958,"endTime":9094.416,"body":"intolerable and nobody"},{"startTime":9094.416,"endTime":9095.833,"body":"should be talking to you."},{"startTime":9096.416,"endTime":9098.333,"body":"That's woke, that's the toolkit woke."},{"startTime":9099.416,"endTime":9100.333,"body":"And-- Well, and there's a"},{"startTime":9100.333,"endTime":9104.208,"body":"reason that it's Maoist China."},{"startTime":9104.833,"endTime":9109.0,"body":"It's communism wherever it has shown up"},{"startTime":9109.25,"endTime":9110.416,"body":"when we are aware of"},{"startTime":9110.416,"endTime":9111.583,"body":"what the strategies are."},{"startTime":9111.583,"endTime":9113.375,"body":"And it looks like this more or less over"},{"startTime":9113.375,"endTime":9114.541,"body":"and over and over again."},{"startTime":9114.583,"endTime":9115.541,"body":"Yep, because the toolkit"},{"startTime":9115.541,"endTime":9117.0,"body":"is a product of game theory."},{"startTime":9117.333,"endTime":9121.0,"body":"This is a way to, it's a way to wield"},{"startTime":9121.0,"endTime":9124.791,"body":"power that is not derived from the fact"},{"startTime":9124.791,"endTime":9125.625,"body":"that you are correct."},{"startTime":9125.958,"endTime":9128.333,"body":"It is derived from the fact that you are"},{"startTime":9128.333,"endTime":9131.0,"body":"in a position to coerce and to exile."},{"startTime":9131.5,"endTime":9131.833,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":9132.25,"endTime":9132.541,"body":"Yep."},{"startTime":9135.5,"endTime":9136.75,"body":"I guess then there may"},{"startTime":9136.75,"endTime":9137.875,"body":"just be a disagreement."},{"startTime":9139.875,"endTime":9140.666,"body":"I don't really care."},{"startTime":9141.125,"endTime":9143.333,"body":"So not between you and me, but about what"},{"startTime":9143.333,"endTime":9144.583,"body":"people mean when they say woke."},{"startTime":9145.0,"endTime":9146.5,"body":"So that may be the heart of some of the"},{"startTime":9146.5,"endTime":9147.833,"body":"disagreements that you"},{"startTime":9147.833,"endTime":9148.833,"body":"are having with people."},{"startTime":9149.791,"endTime":9154.333,"body":"Because woke, the strategy exists outside"},{"startTime":9154.875,"endTime":9157.083,"body":"of the new moment of woke, the ideology"},{"startTime":9157.375,"endTime":9158.041,"body":"and has existed"},{"startTime":9158.041,"endTime":9159.75,"body":"wherever communism has existed."},{"startTime":9160.583,"endTime":9162.5,"body":"The set of strategies is going to be"},{"startTime":9162.5,"endTime":9164.958,"body":"called communist or Maoist or something."},{"startTime":9164.958,"endTime":9166.708,"body":"And then it's the ideology that gets the"},{"startTime":9166.708,"endTime":9170.583,"body":"name that that may be the heart of some"},{"startTime":9170.583,"endTime":9171.333,"body":"of the disagreement that"},{"startTime":9171.333,"endTime":9172.541,"body":"you have with some people."},{"startTime":9172.583,"endTime":9174.458,"body":"Well, the disagreement I think stems from"},{"startTime":9174.458,"endTime":9175.125,"body":"the following thing."},{"startTime":9175.125,"endTime":9176.625,"body":"The alternative claim, you've got my"},{"startTime":9176.625,"endTime":9179.083,"body":"claim about the woke toolkit involving"},{"startTime":9179.083,"endTime":9181.875,"body":"coercion and cancellation, threats,"},{"startTime":9181.875,"endTime":9184.333,"body":"coercion and cancellation in order to"},{"startTime":9184.333,"endTime":9185.916,"body":"keep you within a set"},{"startTime":9185.916,"endTime":9187.541,"body":"of belief parameters."},{"startTime":9188.708,"endTime":9191.083,"body":"The alternative perspective, which James"},{"startTime":9191.083,"endTime":9192.916,"body":"Lindsay has articulated as well as anyone"},{"startTime":9192.916,"endTime":9196.875,"body":"has, is that the key aspect of woke is"},{"startTime":9196.875,"endTime":9199.416,"body":"effectively the belief that there is an"},{"startTime":9199.416,"endTime":9202.0,"body":"epiphany and that those"},{"startTime":9202.0,"endTime":9203.666,"body":"who have had it can see."},{"startTime":9204.5,"endTime":9206.333,"body":"Now, I don't disagree that that does tend"},{"startTime":9206.333,"endTime":9207.958,"body":"to show up, but if you think about what"},{"startTime":9207.958,"endTime":9212.875,"body":"the idea is, like the problem is there"},{"startTime":9212.875,"endTime":9214.75,"body":"are a lot of garbage epiphanies, but"},{"startTime":9214.75,"endTime":9216.0,"body":"everything good starts as one."},{"startTime":9216.75,"endTime":9220.666,"body":"So the idea that there might be some"},{"startTime":9220.666,"endTime":9225.416,"body":"epiphany that you have about whether"},{"startTime":9225.416,"endTime":9228.208,"body":"vaccines are safe enough to"},{"startTime":9228.208,"endTime":9230.625,"body":"be used on children, right?"},{"startTime":9230.625,"endTime":9232.166,"body":"The point is, ah, you're woke."},{"startTime":9232.375,"endTime":9234.041,"body":"You claim to have woken up to something."},{"startTime":9234.041,"endTime":9236.75,"body":"And it's like, you wanna demonize the"},{"startTime":9236.75,"endTime":9239.541,"body":"idea of waking up to something because we"},{"startTime":9239.541,"endTime":9240.916,"body":"wake up to lots of stuff and there's lots"},{"startTime":9240.916,"endTime":9242.333,"body":"of stuff that I've woken up to that I"},{"startTime":9242.333,"endTime":9244.125,"body":"would not go back to sleep over and it's"},{"startTime":9244.125,"endTime":9246.541,"body":"because it's right and I am safer and"},{"startTime":9246.541,"endTime":9248.708,"body":"healthier and happier to know about it."},{"startTime":9248.75,"endTime":9251.166,"body":"So the point is, which is the more"},{"startTime":9251.166,"endTime":9254.125,"body":"essential feature of the woke toolkit?"},{"startTime":9254.125,"endTime":9256.375,"body":"Is it epiphany and does that distinguish"},{"startTime":9256.375,"endTime":9258.666,"body":"it from anything else, right?"},{"startTime":9258.958,"endTime":9261.625,"body":"Or is it the toolkit used to prevent"},{"startTime":9261.625,"endTime":9263.916,"body":"people from straying"},{"startTime":9264.125,"endTime":9265.625,"body":"from an enforced consensus?"},{"startTime":9266.083,"endTime":9266.916,"body":"And I would claim it's"},{"startTime":9266.916,"endTime":9268.458,"body":"obviously the latter thing."},{"startTime":9270.791,"endTime":9271.0,"body":"Yep."},{"startTime":9271.958,"endTime":9272.208,"body":"Struggle sessions."},{"startTime":9272.875,"endTime":9273.875,"body":"Yeah, struggle sessions."},{"startTime":9274.541,"endTime":9275.958,"body":"Not to put too fine a point on it."},{"startTime":9279.5,"endTime":9283.416,"body":"Gosh, I feel like there was more places"},{"startTime":9283.416,"endTime":9285.083,"body":"here, but maybe that's it."},{"startTime":9285.291,"endTime":9286.041,"body":"Maybe that's it."},{"startTime":9286.083,"endTime":9287.083,"body":"Yeah, for now."},{"startTime":9289.583,"endTime":9291.083,"body":"And maybe, what time is it?"},{"startTime":9291.25,"endTime":9292.333,"body":"What time does it think it is?"},{"startTime":9293.708,"endTime":9294.708,"body":"Depends what it is."},{"startTime":9295.333,"endTime":9296.708,"body":"Depends what the definition of it is."},{"startTime":9296.708,"endTime":9297.958,"body":"Yeah, I think we're gonna hold off on"},{"startTime":9297.958,"endTime":9299.833,"body":"sharks, honestly, because I kinda just"},{"startTime":9299.833,"endTime":9303.458,"body":"don't wanna introduce actual phylogenies"},{"startTime":9304.125,"endTime":9306.875,"body":"on a day when there were sort of tree"},{"startTime":9306.875,"endTime":9308.25,"body":"diagrams being shown."},{"startTime":9308.25,"endTime":9310.916,"body":"This will also give sharks a"},{"startTime":9310.916,"endTime":9312.375,"body":"little more time to evolve."},{"startTime":9312.375,"endTime":9314.5,"body":"Oh man, they've been so slow about it."},{"startTime":9315.166,"endTime":9315.916,"body":"So slow."},{"startTime":9316.708,"endTime":9318.333,"body":"No, actually one of the, so I mentioned"},{"startTime":9318.333,"endTime":9319.375,"body":"the shark thing last week."},{"startTime":9319.375,"endTime":9320.916,"body":"I'll just keep on like dragging it on and"},{"startTime":9320.916,"endTime":9322.0,"body":"probably we'll never get to it."},{"startTime":9322.0,"endTime":9326.083,"body":"But apparently they had very rapid"},{"startTime":9326.083,"endTime":9328.041,"body":"evolution and diversification, but it was"},{"startTime":9328.041,"endTime":9330.125,"body":"so long ago that it feels like they've"},{"startTime":9330.125,"endTime":9332.5,"body":"just been changing a"},{"startTime":9332.5,"endTime":9333.875,"body":"little bit for a very long time."},{"startTime":9333.875,"endTime":9335.875,"body":"And they kinda just did all their"},{"startTime":9335.875,"endTime":9336.75,"body":"changing all at once."},{"startTime":9336.791,"endTime":9337.916,"body":"And then they're just"},{"startTime":9337.916,"endTime":9339.583,"body":"like, we did it, got there."},{"startTime":9339.583,"endTime":9341.041,"body":"They've been resting on their"},{"startTime":9341.041,"endTime":9345.208,"body":"cartilaginous laurels for a good many hundred million years."},{"startTime":9345.208,"endTime":9346.708,"body":"Long before laurels ever existed."},{"startTime":9347.166,"endTime":9348.833,"body":"Because angiosperms, man, they are late"},{"startTime":9348.833,"endTime":9350.041,"body":"comers, late bloomers."},{"startTime":9350.833,"endTime":9351.125,"body":"Wow."},{"startTime":9351.166,"endTime":9351.541,"body":"I know."},{"startTime":9352.375,"endTime":9352.541,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":9352.625,"endTime":9354.291,"body":"That was a really good pun that the few"},{"startTime":9354.291,"endTime":9355.0,"body":"people are gonna get."},{"startTime":9355.041,"endTime":9355.291,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":9356.0,"endTime":9358.291,"body":"Okay, but we did, you insisted actually."},{"startTime":9358.291,"endTime":9358.5,"body":"Yep."},{"startTime":9359.375,"endTime":9360.083,"body":"I do that sometimes."},{"startTime":9361.416,"endTime":9362.5,"body":"Usually I ignore you."},{"startTime":9363.583,"endTime":9364.5,"body":"Doesn't mean I didn't insist."},{"startTime":9364.5,"endTime":9365.125,"body":"That's not true."},{"startTime":9365.416,"endTime":9365.791,"body":"That's true."},{"startTime":9367.25,"endTime":9369.208,"body":"There are two, so we live in this county"},{"startTime":9370.0,"endTime":9371.75,"body":"in the state of Washington, San Juan"},{"startTime":9371.75,"endTime":9374.75,"body":"County, which has four fairies of islands"},{"startTime":9375.208,"endTime":9376.916,"body":"and another several few"},{"startTime":9376.916,"endTime":9378.875,"body":"handfuls of inhabited islands."},{"startTime":9379.75,"endTime":9380.958,"body":"And it's kind of even looking up."},{"startTime":9380.958,"endTime":9381.458,"body":"I don't know how many"},{"startTime":9381.458,"endTime":9383.25,"body":"people live in the county."},{"startTime":9383.5,"endTime":9384.958,"body":"I don't know, several tens of"},{"startTime":9384.958,"endTime":9386.458,"body":"thousands-ish something."},{"startTime":9388.291,"endTime":9392.75,"body":"And there are two weekly newspapers, one"},{"startTime":9392.75,"endTime":9394.083,"body":"that comes out of San Juan, one that"},{"startTime":9394.083,"endTime":9396.166,"body":"comes out of Orcus every week."},{"startTime":9396.208,"endTime":9397.916,"body":"And every week they both"},{"startTime":9397.916,"endTime":9400.833,"body":"report basically the sheriff's log."},{"startTime":9401.583,"endTime":9402.125,"body":"Police blotter."},{"startTime":9402.125,"endTime":9403.458,"body":"Yeah, the police blotter, they call it"},{"startTime":9403.458,"endTime":9404.25,"body":"the sheriff's log here."},{"startTime":9405.166,"endTime":9406.875,"body":"And I usually, I read it"},{"startTime":9406.875,"endTime":9408.458,"body":"every week because it's..."},{"startTime":9408.833,"endTime":9409.791,"body":"Yeah, quaint."},{"startTime":9410.0,"endTime":9411.416,"body":"Yeah, it's quaint."},{"startTime":9411.416,"endTime":9412.708,"body":"And it just reminds me that literally"},{"startTime":9413.208,"endTime":9415.291,"body":"there's no street light on"},{"startTime":9415.291,"endTime":9416.375,"body":"the island that we live on."},{"startTime":9416.583,"endTime":9418.791,"body":"And we're in the county seat, right?"},{"startTime":9419.166,"endTime":9419.875,"body":"I don't think there's a"},{"startTime":9419.875,"endTime":9420.625,"body":"street light in the county."},{"startTime":9420.833,"endTime":9421.958,"body":"Yeah, I think there must not be."},{"startTime":9422.25,"endTime":9423.625,"body":"Because if there's none here, there's,"},{"startTime":9424.041,"endTime":9425.375,"body":"yeah, none anywhere."},{"startTime":9427.041,"endTime":9429.208,"body":"But still, there's some real things."},{"startTime":9429.458,"endTime":9431.625,"body":"And so this is from March 18th."},{"startTime":9431.625,"endTime":9433.166,"body":"This is last week's."},{"startTime":9433.166,"endTime":9434.25,"body":"This is the most recent one."},{"startTime":9434.25,"endTime":9435.625,"body":"There'll be a new one coming out today."},{"startTime":9437.791,"endTime":9440.416,"body":"But we have things like, \"A Lopez Island"},{"startTime":9440.416,"endTime":9441.791,"body":"deputy stopped a vehicle near the"},{"startTime":9441.791,"endTime":9442.583,"body":"intersection of Mud"},{"startTime":9442.583,"endTime":9444.0,"body":"Bay Road and Vista Road."},{"startTime":9444.0,"endTime":9445.416,"body":"The driver was subsequently issued an"},{"startTime":9445.416,"endTime":9447.416,"body":"infraction for speeding 50 miles per hour"},{"startTime":9447.416,"endTime":9449.25,"body":"and opposed to 35 mile per hour zone."},{"startTime":9450.0,"endTime":9451.083,"body":"Additional warnings were issued.\""},{"startTime":9451.75,"endTime":9455.083,"body":"And I'll say, this is the entire log for"},{"startTime":9455.083,"endTime":9456.333,"body":"the week, for the entire county."},{"startTime":9456.625,"endTime":9457.916,"body":"There's not much going on here."},{"startTime":9459.25,"endTime":9463.083,"body":"And a Lopez resident reported fraud that"},{"startTime":9463.083,"endTime":9464.708,"body":"resulted in significant loss of funds,"},{"startTime":9464.708,"endTime":9465.916,"body":"both in cash and gift cards"},{"startTime":9465.916,"endTime":9467.333,"body":"purchased at a local business."},{"startTime":9468.875,"endTime":9470.083,"body":"More traffic stops."},{"startTime":9470.791,"endTime":9473.291,"body":"There's occasional drunk driving,"},{"startTime":9474.208,"endTime":9476.208,"body":"occasional domestic incidents."},{"startTime":9476.958,"endTime":9479.333,"body":"But it's pretty rare that there's"},{"startTime":9479.333,"endTime":9480.125,"body":"anything all that serious."},{"startTime":9480.416,"endTime":9484.5,"body":"However, I feel like the sheriff's log in"},{"startTime":9484.5,"endTime":9487.291,"body":"our county outdid itself this week"},{"startTime":9488.291,"endTime":9489.875,"body":"with the following, again, from the"},{"startTime":9489.875,"endTime":9490.666,"body":"sheriff's log from March"},{"startTime":9490.666,"endTime":9492.5,"body":"18th, 2025, the following entry."},{"startTime":9493.666,"endTime":9494.666,"body":"\"A deputy received a"},{"startTime":9494.666,"endTime":9495.75,"body":"report of found property."},{"startTime":9496.625,"endTime":9498.958,"body":"A $1 bill was located in the sheriff's"},{"startTime":9498.958,"endTime":9500.458,"body":"office and the owner was unknown."},{"startTime":9501.208,"endTime":9502.208,"body":"The money was booked into"},{"startTime":9502.208,"endTime":9503.75,"body":"evidence as found property.\""},{"startTime":9506.25,"endTime":9507.666,"body":"Not many counties where somebody would"},{"startTime":9507.666,"endTime":9508.958,"body":"book a dollar into evidence."},{"startTime":9509.75,"endTime":9510.541,"body":"Booked into evidence."},{"startTime":9512.25,"endTime":9514.833,"body":"It was a slow day, even here."},{"startTime":9515.416,"endTime":9515.625,"body":"Yep."},{"startTime":9516.125,"endTime":9517.291,"body":"All right, it's an amazing story."},{"startTime":9517.625,"endTime":9518.291,"body":"Yeah, yeah."},{"startTime":9518.625,"endTime":9519.291,"body":"So you insisted."},{"startTime":9519.75,"endTime":9520.875,"body":"I know, I know, it's good."},{"startTime":9520.875,"endTime":9521.666,"body":"I read that to you and"},{"startTime":9521.666,"endTime":9522.541,"body":"you're like, you have to--"},{"startTime":9523.041,"endTime":9523.833,"body":"You gotta share that."},{"startTime":9523.833,"endTime":9524.041,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":9525.041,"endTime":9527.166,"body":"So from the county where occasionally"},{"startTime":9527.166,"endTime":9529.0,"body":"dollar bills are booked into evidence,"},{"startTime":9530.083,"endTime":9532.0,"body":"it's a beautiful place to live."},{"startTime":9532.25,"endTime":9534.916,"body":"It's a little insane for those of you who"},{"startTime":9534.916,"endTime":9535.25,"body":"have been paying"},{"startTime":9535.25,"endTime":9536.333,"body":"attention to Washington state."},{"startTime":9537.166,"endTime":9539.833,"body":"It's even further losing its grip on"},{"startTime":9539.833,"endTime":9541.333,"body":"reality in some ways, at least the"},{"startTime":9541.333,"endTime":9543.5,"body":"lawmakers are, but it is a beautiful,"},{"startTime":9543.5,"endTime":9545.75,"body":"beautiful state and the county is quaint"},{"startTime":9545.75,"endTime":9547.791,"body":"enough to occasionally book $1 bills into"},{"startTime":9547.791,"endTime":9549.5,"body":"evidence of lost property."},{"startTime":9549.5,"endTime":9550.75,"body":"And I got a piece, so let's--"},{"startTime":9553.333,"endTime":9554.458,"body":"Wow, I didn't think we were done."},{"startTime":9554.458,"endTime":9556.0,"body":"Okay, no, we can do that."},{"startTime":9558.041,"endTime":9560.5,"body":"So we'll be back on Sunday"},{"startTime":9560.5,"endTime":9563.875,"body":"with a Q\u0026A on locals at 11 a.m."},{"startTime":9563.875,"endTime":9565.958,"body":"Pacific and next week"},{"startTime":9565.958,"endTime":9567.833,"body":"with our next live stream."},{"startTime":9568.833,"endTime":9571.708,"body":"And until you see us next, be good to the"},{"startTime":9571.708,"endTime":9572.625,"body":"ones you love, eat"},{"startTime":9572.625,"endTime":9574.041,"body":"good food and get outside."},{"startTime":9574.583,"endTime":9575.083,"body":"Be well, everyone."},{"startTime":9577.958,"endTime":9580.541,"body":"(Upbeat Music)"}]}