Democracy Under Pressure

Transcript

Intro Clip

SPEAKER_00 0:00

What the Democrats probably need to do most of all is again find leaders at this point. Because you know, we're still not even at the midterms. And usually for a leader to come, that usually waits after the midterm and then the presidential election happens. But I think you got to be creative in this environment. And because there's these are kind of desperate times. You have to think differently to steal an apple phrase. You have to think differently here. And think how can we get some leaders right up to the fore so people can follow or just be led as to what needs to be done. What needs to be done during these kind of times? And these are unprecedented times. So it requires some creative thinking and unprecedented actions on the part of the Democrats. You can be part of this intercultural discussion on our website, overhearoverthere.org or YouTube channel. And we're on all major platforms as well. So, but don't forget to like and subscribe to the podcast wherever you are. We'd appreciate that. Claudia, when we were talking about topics of the week recently, he did it again. You know who I'm talking about.

SPEAKER_03 1:34

Oh, absolutely. The one we shall not name too early.

SPEAKER_00 1:38

Yeah, yeah, okay. The moment we put the phone down, I'll name him. Trump had announced something that got the attention uh around the world, and that was slapping a 50% tariff on the EU.

SPEAKER_01 1:52

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:53

And then we just heard he's postponing that after a call with Ursula von der Leyen, you know, uh uh the the president of the the EU commission. And so we're off again again. So we're it's it's like this is the capricious nature of this administration that has really just befuddled, confused, and undermined the United States' position around the world. But uh I it's difficult actually to do a podcast. Let's face it. It's try to do a podcast and keep up with this and keep it current. But let's try. We know that, for instance, we're gonna get this type of behavior. So that is the normality, the normality to all this, right?

The Impact of Trump's Tariff Announcement - Claudia Koestler

SPEAKER_03 2:43

Yeah, eretic is the new norm, so it seems. Yeah, absolutely. But um it is it is really hard to keep up. And I do uh understand people that actually want to skip a beat here and there and just you know listen to news every other day, because by the time you have ac have actually caught up with something that Trump has done or announced or is planning, it might have uh been quite differently in a couple of hours again. So keep your keep calm. That's basically what you're keep calm, keep the nerves.

SPEAKER_00 3:17

Yes.

SPEAKER_03 3:18

Right, exactly. Isn't that the British motto?

SPEAKER_00 3:21

Yeah, and that and that's been bastardized quite a bit. You know, k keep calm and blah, blah, blah, do something else. Right. But let's go back to the original. Keep calm and carry on. That's what's important. But uh what was the reaction in Europe to to to all this so far?

SPEAKER_03 3:37

I mean, uh, first of all, it was a rush of adrenaline, of course, to everyone. And the reaction in Europe was um immediate. That was good, and also intense. Um, for example, the German minister for economy, Katharina Reiche, she called the move an attack on global trade. Um, and the France uh finance minister described it as brutal and unfounded. Um and the European Commission, through President Ursula von der Leyen, called it a blow to the world economy and made it absolutely clear that the EU is preparing countermeasures. So um they already have prepared to a certain extent to anything that might have come that way. And it's uh a so-called big bazooka. Um, it is the EU's anti-coercion instrument. Is that the right pronunciation, Dan? Coercion. Coercion. The anti-coercion instrument. Um it is uh a measurement that could restrict the US access to the EU market in finance and in tech and um in other um areas like public uh procurement. So um they the EU is sort of ready. Um so when this announcement came that he is thinking about 50% tariffs, uh the reaction, as I said, was very intense and very firm.

SPEAKER_00 5:03

So the message is clear from Europe that Europe, you know, it won't be bullied. It won't be bullied. Right. I mean, it's actually a larger market than the United States. But the key phrase that we want to, or key word that we have been talking about, is being united, a united Europe. And I think that's what was uh Trump was banking on, as is a lot of uh autocratic dictators are when they deal with Europe. They think, how can we divide Europe or pick it off or whatever? And so far they've stuck together and in fact it seems like they double down on their unity, which is great. But we'll talk more about that uh at the end. But um and the real problem here is it'll cause milli pain, a great deal of pain, as it it it it hasn't necessarily happened just yet, but it's it's starting to have an effect on the U.S. economy. And uh it'll have a lot of pain for a lot of uh uh millions of Americans, including a lot of MAGA, MAGA uh people in Trump's orbit. So it it'll be interesting to see what the reaction is over time.

SPEAKER_03 6:23

The question uh will probably be do they actually, those supporters, those MAGA people that are now being uh affected by it financially, um, will they pinpoint it to Trump or will they find another scapegoat and believe that it is due to some other um ongoings in the world? Uh that is one major question that will uh time will tell um where it's going down. But um I am absolutely with you. Uh it is already showing, and it will get much worse, that it hurts so many people where it really, really hurts, and that is financially.

SPEAKER_00 7:04

Yeah. And this will come to a head uh in the midterms. We'll really see where the barometer of Trump's popularity is. We all we know that it's now into the 30s, which is terrible, especially for someone who's just passed his first hundred days. It's still early in his presidency. That's terrible. And so the midterms will be the litmus test, uh uh power litmus test, because the House might go to uh to the Democrats Senate. There's a chance, who knows? And that'll have all sorts of implications as we we can talk about as far as Trump getting through any uh his agenda or uh you know the actions that he's taking as far as executive orders and things like that. And certainly impeachment uh possibilities as well in the House and what happens in the Senate. So the midterms are a high watermark uh as far as the power in Washington goes. Uh but it so it'll be a very it'll be pivotal for the future of American governance and the resilience of its democratic norms.

SPEAKER_03 8:15

I um I fully agree that this is gonna be like a luckness test for for Trump and his uh politics and his uh um supporters. But I also see that those midterms are only one one and a half years away now. So it isn't that long. Um and from my view as a European, um, I do not see uh a counterbalance rising, any politician or a democrat that aims to fill the void as a true opposition leader to Trump, someone that embodies the anti-Trump, so to speak, the the true democracy, um, someone uh the European Union, other countries that share Western values could turn to and see where uh the future of the US might lie and find an ally. Do you see someone rising like an anti-Trump over there?

SPEAKER_00 9:16

I don't see anybody, any one personality at the moment, some leader, somebody coming out of the mists, like in a Marvel comic you know, movie or some kind of uh hero, Steven Spielberg.

SPEAKER_03 9:32

Rising hero. Exactly.

SPEAKER_00 9:34

I don't not not yet. But there are voices in the Senate, like Chris Murphy, um, in the House, Jamie Raskin. You could go through a list of them. They're starting to really, over the last two or three months, to really find their form and comment uh the Trump administration for its undemocratic behaviors and and ways. And so I think what really needs to be done though, it's it's gotta be, as we said, unity uh on both sides of the Atlantic, which we'll get to. But uh what the Democrats probably need to do most of all is again find leaders at this point. Because you know, we're still not even at the midterms.

SPEAKER_01 10:18

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 10:19

And usually for you know a leader to to come that usually waits after the midterm and then the presidential election happens. But I think you got to be creative in this environment. And it's uh, you know, because there's these are kind of desperate times. You have to think differently, uh, to steal an apple phrase. Uh you have to think differently here. And think how can we get some leaders right up to the fore so people can uh you know follow uh or just be led as to what needs to be done. What needs to be done at during these kind of times. And these are unprecedented times. So it requires some creative thinking and unprecedented actions on the part of the Democrats. And I think that the Democratic National Committee with Ken Martin and um it needs to think, okay, what what what what should we do in order to because Kamala Harris had 106 days, a good candidate, but it was too short a time for her to get her message across and to get known to the American public. Uh and so she she fell just a little bit short. If she had more time, I think she would have done it.

SPEAKER_03 11:32

Let me tell you one more topic. She has missed the topic of economy. She should have focused on that one.

SPEAKER_00 11:40

Yeah. She she really that was a that was a big mistake because yes, Americans were still hurting from the inflation that was caused uh during Biden's term, but there were a lot of good things to point out and things that and she should have talked about the future and how things were going to improve if she were elected more so. And she did have a few uh good points, good good policies, but it wasn't enough. And really, after that flurry of the first six weeks where her rock she just rocketed up uh and and really defied expectations, at least you know for me, I didn't think she was going to do as well as she did. Then she sort of leveled off the message. They got they they really let Trump back into you know the uh the me into the media and to gain and to dominate the media for after like six weeks or two months of the of that, then it was Trump coming back in and uh stealing the attention of everyone. And so we didn't really hear as much from Kamala as we should have uh on the out front. So anyway, but that's not to rerun the last last election. I think that what really needs to be done is for an uh an early indication of who these leaders from the Democratic Party will be, even to have just have people uh encur the DNC to have people announce their intentions or to have some kind of precursor of the primaries, even before the uh midterms. We just need a a level of uh a layer of leaders that will are gonna are emerging. And they can be within the government, they can be people from outside uh Congress, I should say. Uh just some really solid candidates come up and help lead the way. And we'll get to know them more. We'll they'll have more time to get to know know them. They can fundraise, uh, they can explain their policies, and and really get the message out about how dangerous it is uh the Trump administration is. So that's what's important. We just why not? Because Trump, look at what Trump did. He actually came out in was it November, I think it was 15th of November, 2022. He announced his candidacy for the presidency. That's almost two years beforehand. Okay, so right after the midterms uh of that uh of that of that cycle. Now, of course, he did that to help stave off these court cases, because he said, I'm running for president, you can't you can't throw me into jail uh or convict me uh because I'm a presidential candidate. I'll I'll try that someday myself. Uh I'll just announce that I'm running for president if I get a parking ticket or something like that.

SPEAKER_03 14:34

But um Oh, that is a good idea.

SPEAKER_00 14:37

Isn't it a good idea? So try that. Even if you're a German, like if you're traveling in the States, just if you get pulled over, say, I officer, I'm really sorry, but I'm I am I'm thinking about I'm running, I'm declaring my presidency, my num my my run for the presidency right now.

SPEAKER_03 14:55

So you will have your tickets swapped into one that goes directly into a uh mental institution.

SPEAKER_00 15:03

Yeah. You'll have to get the right cop though. If he if he's a MAGA supporter, then you're in trouble. So uh just don't, anyway. But but no, they they they really need to get out early and to get their leaders up, visible, and vocal. And we've seen it with Bernie Sanders and AOC doing that tour a month or two ago. They did really well. You know, that's the left of the party, and and so on and so forth. We need people from the center, from and and from right of center to do the same. And on that score, I would just say, from a domestic point of view, that it's gotta be a broad church, a broad coalition. So the DNC down in the you know, Democratic National Committee needs to loosen up and also accommodate, doesn't have to take them in, like say um uh you know, um an Adam Kissinger or Liz Cheney, whatever, but you gotta encourage people from different perspectives, be part of a democratic, pro small D, pro-democratic coalition.

SPEAKER_02 16:08

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 16:08

And to be a force, a united force, uh against against Trump and the mega policies that he's he's he's doing. And you can disagree on a lot of uh on the policies, but what we're talking about is have a solid pro-democratic base of support and to make sure that we are united across the spectrum. And so the Democrats should probably lead that charge, get everyone into that coalition as much as possible, and uh take a note of how it's done in Europe and elsewhere, how coalitions are done. Because coalitions in the United States are aren't common. You know, we we really don't do coalitions as such.

SPEAKER_03 16:48

You don't have enough parties.

SPEAKER_00 16:51

Yeah. Well, and uh and and I just say in and uh well I'll get off my high horse in a second, but I'll just say internationally we also have to reach out and look at uh countries that are pro especially in the Western hemisphere, but uh all throughout the world, uh that are pro-democratic and and really form partnerships with them internationally as well. So we need a full court press, both domestically and internationally uh to unite. So because right now, as you mentioned earlier, the United States' position in the world is sinking and sinking fast. So for uh the United States to recover from this, we have to show from a pro-democratic side of uh side of things that that they're that this won't last forever, and we the pro-democratic uh organizations will be back in power. We are going to win next time. And so don't count us out, don't leave us, you know. Uh yes, this is a difficult time for everyone, but don't count us out.

SPEAKER_03 18:01

That is a very, very good point, and you said the word unity, and that the uh shared values and the um goal of saving democracy must rank higher than any inner party differences, opinions on uh smaller matters. That is all still fine, but we have to come together and uh uh unify under this um united um goal, actually, that we are all after. Now we have to save democracy. Um and actually, I think the US can look at the EU at the moment because Europe, as such, is absolutely famous for its diverse history, all those little countries and nations, and they are so different. We've experienced it. You know, within an hour, you are in a different world. Um they speak different languages, they have their traditions, and all that is so valuable and wonderful. But still, in this global world that we are in, we have to also think about the higher stakes that are at risk and therefore find the common in our differences. And that is in the EU that we share Western values, democracy. So when it comes to politics and when it comes to economy, we need to speak with one voice, and we need to be uh dealing for the interest of everyone, uh for the best of everyone, and that is best done if it's in a united voice, in a in a unique voice. Um if it's in one voice, I mean. So the US could actually learn a little bit from how the EU is doing it at the moment, because it is it is always a balance, and there are always negative points, and you can always criticize. But overall, in a short period of time, the EU has done tremendously well. And you have still those nations and countries that are blooming in their differences, in their wonderful quirkiness and in their uniqueness, and with all their traditions. But when it comes to politics and a global standing, we need to be united. And that is something that especially the Democrats need to actually learn from Europe in a way. Um, and basically, this is not a done deal yet, and it's not, it's it's gonna be a fight forever. You always have to fight for it. There is never gonna be a win, and you will always be under threat. So this is also needed in the uh outside of the US, that you always need to have clear vision in your leadership. Uh, you have to have backbone, and you have to know what Western democratic values are and why they are so important, why it's worth fighting for it.

SPEAKER_00 21:04

Right. I mean, very good point, very good statement, and uh agree with that 100%. But I would also say I always look at things at the between the micro and the macro, and that was that's a very good macro analysis of what needs to be done on the micro level. I think it's the key message that nearly needs to get put down to the the voter in the United States or the voter in Britain, you know, because you know we've just we've been still experiencing Brexit uh and in its aftermath. Um but really show them how uh the lack of democratic uh institutions and principles and norms of behavior. How can it affect them directly from a from their pocketbooks to their health uh to their freedoms uh as a citizen? Really get into the minutiae is say, this is what happens. That, I mean, just take a look. I mean, look at my iPhone and I have this app with the stock market. Look at what happens when you have an autocratic ruler who decides to throw in a tariff for a couple days and then take it off the next few days and all that. You know, that that is that it affects or do away with your health care, like Medicaid and Medicare. And this is what happens when democracy is undermined. Okay. So it's it's both a macro level and a micro level. So there's you know various various things that we have to that we have to consider uh and and how much of an effort it is to get this structure, this unity structure, you know, unified structure. And I agree totally. And here we are. This is I admire them so much, and I'm glad I got two citizenships within within Europe, which is great. So I can say I'm with you as well. So but here it is, you're not only it's I think the EU to me is is amazing because you know we have the United States and what we have a common language and things like that. Here in in Europe, you have different cultures as you explained. You just go a hundred miles one way and it's a completely different uh landscape, uh, figuratively as far as, or in literally, uh as far as culture and politics and everything else. And but the the EU is unified behind a common principle, common EU principles of the common, the common good of all. And you can see the benefit that's happened. Sure, there's lots of things wrong with it still, a lot of things to be worked out, but they're certainly doing a better job than seeing the division uh that is taking place over over in uh in the United States.

SPEAKER_03 24:02

Dan, you mentioned before that you know you want to have a broad alliance uh within the US um to oppose Trump and to win the uh next um midterms. But what about other alliances? I mean, do you think that you know the EU, for example, and other um countries that um share Western values, democra uh democratic values, like Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Um do you see them um in the need to step up and form a new alliance as well?

SPEAKER_00 24:42

I I I I think they have to one watch out for themselves. That's number one. And Canada, for taking that as an example, has done that really, really well. Really well. And he they've gotten a lot of sympathy and empathy from people in the United States. Because I mean, I grew up uh an hour from the Canadian border border, and I consider Canadians almost very similar to Americans. Uh they won't, I mean they're a different, you know, different, uh certainly a different country, but I really appreciated them. Friendliest of borders going until Trump came along. So uh so there's a lot of goodwill still with Canada that uh the American people think towards them. And but Canada is doing a good job. They are going out and finding alliances. I mean, the king makes a visit, opening up uh Parliament. Um it it's finding it's it's really circumventing the United States, it's looking for different markets. France, let's go to France. France is doing the same thing. They don't miss a beat. President Macron does not miss a beat. When he sees an opening, he will fill that void and become like we are the leader in this area now, or we are going to sign this accord with Vietnam and these Asian countries. He doesn't miss a beat. And uh he can see that not only is it opportunist, but it's needed for democratic purposes to show that there they are there is still uh countries that they can rely on, these nations around the world can rely on Western democracies to do business and to have friendly relations with. And so, you know, whether you think that the United States should be the number one power in the world leading all the discussions like it has been over the last uh since World War II, okay, that's that's what our position is until recently. But now it's certainly in question in a big way. And that is being filled uh by other countries. And other countries we prefer not to have that done, and this and particularly with the likes of China, who is not missing an opportunity either, uh throughout the throughout Asia, throughout Africa, elsewhere. So um so yeah. Do they do they need to step up and and look at uh and and look at alliances? Uh yes, they do. But my message is also if we have that unity, uh form a base of opposition in the United States and with uh you know, across with a broad coalition and work with other countries to that end, then that'll help counterbalance what's happening now.

SPEAKER_03 27:33

And I'd say it is about building resilience against authoritarian tactics, and that's the global goal. We need to find countries and support countries that go and try and build resilience against that. But since you mentioned China, I mean there is one elephant in the room that hasn't been addressed much yet. But let's let's talk about that as well, because there is another major shift on the global stage, and that is the rise of the BRICS nations. Um, this block now expanded to include countries like Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, uh, the UAE, Egypt, Indonesia, and originally it's uh Brazil, Russia, Russia, um, India, China, and uh South Africa. Um, they account for over 30%, 40% of the world's economy and more than half the global population. Um, and unlike traditional Western alliances, many BRICS members don't necessarily share democratic values. Um what do you think that West uh should do about that? Is that something that uh uh we can just um watch? Or um I mean the BRICS might become an economic powerhouse that threatens, for example, the EU's position on the global stage. Um how should we address that?

SPEAKER_00 29:02

I think that they the the one thing that they got going for them is that economic power that they could wield. But they all do something different, don't they? Saudi Arabia with its oil, uh China with its manufacturing, um India with its high-tech pharmaceuticals, uh, large population, highly educated. They all have something unique. So what binds them together besides just being opposed to the United States or Western democracies or the EU? So, but they they are they are do meet and they do strategize. So that's different. And I think that the thing that uh one could do is look at it both from a bilateral and a multilateral. Now, multilateral, you're not gonna get that from Trump. He's gonna stay away from that. So that's gonna hurt um in the United States, because he's not gonna he doesn't like to get into those. So it's bilateral. So he's doing that. He he he takes a trip to Saudi Arabia, which uh, of course, he's doing side business for his empire, his business empire as well, while he's doing it. But uh it's it's something that uh you know it's it's how business is done currently in the in the Middle East on a mostly on a bilateral basis instead of uh on a uh uh uh multilateral basis across the Middle East. That's just nature of that region. So so it's a bit of a mixed bag as far as the bricks go and how to relate to them. And uh, you know, we could go on, this could be uh several hours of of the uh uh conversation as far as how we currently, given what an autocratic leader in the United States, how do you deal with the bricks now when you don't have power? Very difficult, very difficult. And so I think that uh you got to just look at it case by case within the BRIC nations, see how you can relate to them, form a partnership with them, either bilaterally or multilateral uh in other ways. But that that's that's the best you can do at the moment when you're out of power. But come the midterms that might change.

SPEAKER_03 31:09

Speaking of power, um, you mentioned one word that you know caught my attention right away at the beginning, and that was the word impeachment. Um do you think that there is a realistic chance of another impeachment for Trump if he continues like he does at the moment?

SPEAKER_00 31:27

I think the impeachment, if the Democrats win in the midterms in the House, yes, I would put at least even money that he'll be impeached for take a number of things that have happened over the first even even the first uh six months of his tenure as uh as president, uh and we'll see what happens over the next course of the next year or so. Um so the House generates the impeachment articles and votes on it, and then it goes over to the Senate and for a trial, if the trial happens. Now that is the big question. So will he get impeached? Yes. For the third time, yes, he probably I I would bet he would be. He would be for some for some uh number of number of reasons. Would he be convicted? That's the that's the question. And I think he's only convicted if he is looked at as a liability for their chances uh in 2028. You know, if he looks like he's gonna lead the the the repo of the MAGA Republicans down even further uh uh electorally, then there might be some softness in the Senate, some consideration, extra consideration that maybe that they would they would go. I think it's highly unlikely that he's gonna be uh convicted in the Senate. But here's here's a way that of here's some just it's a numbers game that okay, say we flip the Senate, that would be miraculous, that'd be fantastic. But uh so the Democrats are 53 or 54 up, 54, maybe to 46, 53, 47. Anyway, they've got a cushion of three or four votes. Then you get possibly eight or ten uh senators, Republican senators, more moderate, who will vote for impeach uh for con convict uh for uh convict him on the impeachment charge. So you've gotta you're still a little bit short. I think it's gonna come down to if it happens, I think it's gonna come down to just a handful of senators on the Republican side, maybe four or five. And will they will they vote to to convict? That will be the the the issue. I think it'll come down, might come down to that. If it it but also along the way, you know, like with these trials, his court trials that he had uh in the run-up to the election, that gave Trump actually more air, you know, more airtime, and it really uh galvanized his base uh uh and uh helped him co you know coalesce his support going into the into the election. So there could be unintended consequences. I'm sure the Democrats would would fear that. But I think they gotta do their job. Number one, you gotta do your job. You're elected, you gotta do your job. And if if he if someone's done something wrong, you gotta you've got to do your job and assess that and impeach him if if that is the case. Okay, and it's not, again, it's not a legal action. This is a congressional uh action. It only happens in the Congress, not in the courts. Okay, so this is uh something that will uh happen in the U.S. House of Representatives and then later in the Senate. So unlikely, I wouldn't give it, I wouldn't put my hopes on it, but it'll be interesting to see how close it gets after if the Democrats do well in the midterms.

SPEAKER_03 35:06

Well, my takeaway is every single person matters, whether it's a politician in the House of Congress or a voter, everyone matters. And uh whether you are in Berlin, in Boston, in Washington, Paris, Sydney, the future of democracy depends on each and every one of us across borders, across parties, across generations. Um and definitely we cannot afford to be divided when the stakes are that high.

SPEAKER_00 35:38

Yeah, that's Sarah. Amen to that. Amen to that, sister. That's a powerful message.

SPEAKER_03 35:46

Now that you know that I lost faith.

SPEAKER_00 35:48

Listen to Claudia. Listen to Claudia.

SPEAKER_03 35:50

I'm back.

SPEAKER_00 35:52

Yeah, she's back. She's she's the one. But uh anyway, maybe we should end it there, but uh, we just say thank you to all our our listeners for sharing uh for and uh for our listeners for sharing this podcast and in general for joining us uh on over here over there. If you want to be part of the conversation, uh visit overheoverthere.org or find us on YouTube. Like, subscribe, and let's keep building bridges because democracy needs all of us now more than ever, as Claudia says, and I fully support her in that. So anyway, stay stay tuned for another unmissable episode. And thank you for being over here, over there.