GPS: Energy Presentation to Albuquerque Business First Energy Summit

This is a presentation providing insight to the 2025 Garrity Perception Survey (GPS) on the topic of oil / gas and solar / wind favorability in New Mexico.  The presentation is provided by Tom Garrity who was the keynote speaker to the Albuquerque Business First Energy Summit on June 12, 2025.

==================

Thank you to Sandia Pueblo and also to Albuquerque Business First for putting on today's event as well as the sponsors and congratulations Jennifer James on your new role. It's going to be very exciting to see you continue to succeed there. In 1997, the Gerdy Group embarked on a journey to help small businesses to be heard and large organizations to be understood. The firm has seen a lot of changes over those years. And we've had some amazing team members as well as some clients, many of whom are in the room, and I'm glad that you're here today. We've had the opportunity to represent the New Mexico trifecta, which includes hot air balloons, New Mexico green chili and Roswell UFOs, now being referred to as unidentified anomalous phenomena, UAPs. I think UFOs just kind of rolls off the tongue. We've also had the chance to work with clients in the oil and gas industry. We have a very established footprint now in the transmission and the renewable energy industry. And in 2011, in support of our four step process of research, planning, execution, and evaluation, we partnered up with Albuquerque. Firm research and polling to really find out who New Mexico residents trust, what industries and institutions they view as favorable, and how people access news and information. Our 2025 perception survey was conducted February 3rd through 16th. It included a statewide sample of 415 residents reflecting the United States Census. It has a 95% level of confidence... 

Transcript

GPS: Energy Presentation to Albuquerque Business First Energy Summit

June 12, 2025

Thank you to Sandia Pueblo and also to Albuquerque Business First for putting on today's event as well as the sponsors and congratulations Jennifer James on your new role. It's going to be very exciting to see you continue to succeed there. In 1997, the Gerdy Group embarked on a journey to help small businesses to be heard and large organizations to be understood. The firm has seen a lot of changes over those years. And we've had some amazing team members as well as some clients, many of whom are in the room, and I'm glad that you're here today. We've had the opportunity to represent the New Mexico trifecta, which includes hot air balloons, New Mexico green chili and Roswell UFOs, now being referred to as unidentified anomalous phenomena, UAPs. I think UFOs just kind of rolls off the tongue. We've also had the chance to work with clients in the oil and gas industry. We have a very established footprint now in the transmission and the renewable energy industry. And in 2011, in support of our four step process of research, planning, execution, and evaluation, we partnered up with Albuquerque. Firm research and polling to really find out who New Mexico residents trust, what industries and institutions they view as favorable, and how people access news and information. Our 2025 perception survey was conducted February 3rd through 16th. It included a statewide sample of 415 residents reflecting the United States Census. It has a 95% level of confidence, meaning if you ask 95 percent, 95 out of 100 New Mexico residents for their thoughts on these topics, the results will differ no more than five percentage points from what would be attained by interviewing every New Mexican on their thoughts of these issues. Residents are asked to rate their overall opinion of various industries and organizations operating in the state on a five point scale. Five is very favorable. One is very unfavorable. When we started the first survey in 2011, the GPS focused on favorability of 17 industries, trust of 15 professions, and how residents access six different types of news and information. During that time, we've had the opportunity to really ask a series of one-off questions, ranging from New Mexicans' faith, how stressed out we are, and if residents trust government or corporations to do the right thing. We will dive into all of those answers later this month at the Albuquerque Economic Forum. So before we jump into the 2025 GPS insights related to the solar and wind industry and the oil and gas industry, I want to let you know how we utilize this particular research. We believe that this research is used to identify advocates as well as those who on the fence. We stay away from We know who the unfavorables are but we really stay away From the unfavourables because there isn't enough time or resources to really move an unfavorable Into a neutral or a favorable position. We do look for sway opportunities Which I'll talk about here in just a minute to move opinions of New Mexico residents who are in the middle or undecided Into that favorable position And we do this, we look for those sway opportunities to move companies past that 50% mark. And you'll see what I mean when we get into some of the research briefly here. Bottom line is, if you have more than 50% favorability, you're able to talk more freely about the successes in your industry. If you're under that 50% favorable, you have to talk about one to two points in support or in defense of your organization before really kind of jumping in to talk what you're up to. Two of the 17 industries that we measured and have measured since day one is the oil and gas industry as well as the soil Solar and wind industry. So with that let's jump into the research findings in 2025 52% of New Mexico residents said that they have a favorable opinion of the wind and solar industry the industry actually ranks eighth out of 17 different industries and it's above the 50% mark statewide. As we take a look at the last election years for the Garity Perceptions Survey, we can kind of see how the solar and wind industry has fluctuated a bit in favorability. In 2012, it was at 57% favorability, 58% in 2016. 2020, it was at 64%. Now, I need to put, whenever we talk about 2020, we always have to provide a disclaimer, right? This 2020 disclaimer is that this research was conducted in January of 2020. So this is before the pandemic occurred and we saw a trust impact and favorability impact in a number of different industries as a result. But we do see that during this time, the wind and solar industry remained above that 50% mark, and so that's a good thing. Now, let's look at it statewide. This is kind of one of my favorite slides because especially when we have a chance to compare contrast between the different industries. When it comes to favorability, the solar and industry does actually have. The, you know, a lot of favorability is strongest in the central and north-central parts of the state. However, in the eastern, southwest, and northwest parts of the state, that favorability dips down below that 52 percent mark. Thirty-nine percent in the northwestern part of the State is amongst the lowest that the industry sees around, and we'll kind of contrast this here in just a moment with the oil and gas industry. Some of the solar and wind advocates include those with a graduate degree, registered Democrats, and people living in North Central and the Albuquerque area. The sway opportunities that we see for the solar wind industry includes the following demographics. Those who are between a 50 and 64 year old, years of age, independent voters, as well as residents living in northwest New Mexico. Now, just because you had that low kind of presence in northwest New Mexico, doesn't mean that northwest New Mexico has a large population that's against solar and wind. Actually, they have a very strong middle. People who rated the industry three on a five point scale or those who don't know, won't say. So that's why we identify geographically that part of the state as an area where sway could occur. This year we actually asked specific to the solar and wind industry as well as the oil and gas industry, we were able to get into qualitative and quantitative assessments. The qualitative after we asked them how they felt we asked why. And some of the positive reasons were is that it's good for the environment, it's for the economy, it is renewable and it's cleaner, cleaner than oil and gas. So with that let's jump into oil and Gass. Oil and gas has a 46% favorability. It ranks eighth out of the 17 industries. So right side by side, solar and wind. And as far as the approval rating, you'll see here in just a moment when we get into the regional numbers. Statewide, it's below the 50% mark. However, depending what part of the state you're in, it moves north of that particular marker. Over the last, since 2012, we've had a chance to see oil and gas really have some, you know, fluctuations with respect to favorability in the state. 45 percent in 2012, 51 percent in 2016, 57 percent in 2020, and 46 percent in 2025. We are going to do a side-by-side of both wind and solar as well as oil and gas here in just a moment since 2020. When we look at the favorability of oil and gas, obviously in the areas where we see the highest levels of production in the Northwest and the Eastern parts of the state, we have a higher level of approval. 50% in the Eastern part of the State, 53% in Northwest. However, in the Central and North Central parts of the States, those numbers fall below the 50% mark. The oil and gas advocates are those who are male, 65 plus, age demographic, and those who are registered Republican. As far as the sway opportunities, this is the part that I really love, is that there's actually a lot of sway opportunity with Democrats, because a lot Democrats showed up in that rating oil and gas as a three or a don't know won't say. So, you know, the partisan politics that we tend to see or we tend to pigeonhole these two industries in are actually, they're not that far apart. There are a lot of those in the middle in both industries that will be swaying or could be swayed one side, one way or another. Residents living in the southwestern part of the state also have the highest level of sway as well as those households earning between $40,000 and $60,000 per year. As far as the favorable reasons why people responded this particular way, it's good for the economy. We need it. It provides jobs and it's a major employer and it provides money to state government and to schools. Now when we take a look at the trend since 2020, here's what we see. We see that both solar and wind and oil and gas are not enjoying as much favorability, in fact almost on parallel paths of descending favorability since 2020. 64 percent for solar and wind in 2020 to 60 percent to 55 percent. Oil and gas 57 percent to 52 to 46. As I wrap up, my kind of takeaways for both industries is to really empower your advocates. Empower your advocates, give those who are on the fence a reason to believe, don't take your advocates for granted, and then focus on face-to-face conversations, and this is for both industries. Because often times we see mass media campaigns but the most effective things that really take place are those face-to-face conversations that is where you can really make a large organization small. So kind of a final slide here which is kind of fun to see that you both have the solar and wind and the oil and gas industry right there in the middle. We have a lot of other industries that are represented. We will be sharing these with the Economic Forum later on, and if you want to be able to learn more about the Garity Perception Survey and the services that our team provides, I'd welcome you to visit garitypr.com. Thank you very much for your time.