Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com - Baccarat and Blackjack Strategy Discussion
Baccarat Confidential Part III The Art of Baccarat: Mastering the Game for Big Wins
Jun 14, 2023
Keith Smith
Ready to become a Baccarat master and potentially rake in millions? Join us as we reveal the crucial steps to elevate your game, from measuring your skills to developing a playbook that helps you tackle the one-third of shoes that are easy and the one-third that are tough. We also dive into knowing when to walk away from a shoe that's too challenging and the original 5D manual's guidance on using OTBL as a tiebreaker when disparities are two or less.
Uncover the fascinating world of Baccarat odds, commission bets, and unique strategies employed by professional players. We analyze the Super 6 bet, which rewards half your bet if the bank wins with a 6, and its impact on the game's odds. Discover the ins and outs of the dragon bet (or panda bet), and why players might opt for it when they have a significant stake on the banker. Finally, we explore the intriguing Poisson bets and discuss the reasons behind the frequent appearances of 6s and 7s. Don't miss out on this treasure trove of insights and strategies to sharpen your Baccarat prowess!
Don't waste another minute losing at the casino. Hit the subscribe button now and join the ranks of successful Baccarat players. With patience and the right system, you too can become a professional and turn your luck around. What are you waiting for? Join us at BeatTheCasino.com and start winning today!
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Join us at BeatTheCasino.com Players Forum and get access to players worldwide and 100s of Baccarat Instructional Videos. https://forum.beatthecasino.com/
Ready to become a Baccarat master and potentially rake in millions? Join us as we reveal the crucial steps to elevate your game, from measuring your skills to developing a playbook that helps you tackle the one-third of shoes that are easy and the one-third that are tough. We also dive into knowing when to walk away from a shoe that's too challenging and the original 5D manual's guidance on using OTBL as a tiebreaker when disparities are two or less.
Uncover the fascinating world of Baccarat odds, commission bets, and unique strategies employed by professional players. We analyze the Super 6 bet, which rewards half your bet if the bank wins with a 6, and its impact on the game's odds. Discover the ins and outs of the dragon bet (or panda bet), and why players might opt for it when they have a significant stake on the banker. Finally, we explore the intriguing Poisson bets and discuss the reasons behind the frequent appearances of 6s and 7s. Don't miss out on this treasure trove of insights and strategies to sharpen your Baccarat prowess!
Don't waste another minute losing at the casino. Hit the subscribe button now and join the ranks of successful Baccarat players. With patience and the right system, you too can become a professional and turn your luck around. What are you waiting for? Join us at BeatTheCasino.com and start winning today!
✅To subscribe to our page, please follow this link http://sub.from-nv.com
✅Join the Baccarat Player's Club at BeatTheCasino.com and learn from and interact with the Best Baccarat Players in the world. Learn the tips and tricks to becoming a profitable player from the best.
Join us at BeatTheCasino.com Players Forum and get access to players worldwide and 100s of Baccarat Instructional Videos. https://forum.beatthecasino.com/
Join us at BeatTheCasino.com Players Forum and get access to players worldwide and 100s of Baccarat Instructional Videos. https://forum.beatthecasino.com/
So how to become a Baccarat millionaire? Does anybody here want to have it? how do you think you become a Bachrod millionaire? Anybody. You start with two million. You start with two million.
Speaker 2:
Okay.
Speaker 1:
Okay. So while we're waiting for Mookie remember I talked about the one-third kind of easy shoes. You know one-third are be kind of. You know you're going to have to work them, which is the purpose of your playbook. And a third they're going to be tough. Jerry just told me about one the other day. Get up and leave, okay. So we talked about measurement, we talked about developing your skills.
Speaker 1:
Okay, what should you be doing? knowing that one-third, one-third, and that's an approximate number, what should you be doing? Practice, well, practice that. No, that's a good answer. That's a good answer. You should be trying to get the one-third that appear easy to you, because you've got more tools now, leonard, than you did before. You try to get that up to 35, not 33%, 35%, maybe 40%. Well, if it's 40% by osmosis or by, you know, a simple addition to track the other ones, the tougher ones, the middle ones, for instance. Okay, there's going to be fewer of those because some of those are going to have converted themselves to the easier ones just because you know more and you're patient and you sit on your hands And you know what I mean.
Speaker 1:
Okay, if you could get I'm using round numbers okay, if you could get those one-third, one-third, one-third, up to more like 40, 40, how much would that leave for the really tough shoes? Twenty, twenty, do you think if you can get your hit rate up and your ability up, do you believe that if you got that down to 20 pretty soon? I mean, many of you have seen me do it I just say I'm not going to beat this shoe, or I'll be sitting with Janice two weeks, or maybe three weeks, i can't remember And we sat there and neither one of us was winning. Do you remember that? And what did I do? You're going to go back and do the stadium. That's exactly right. I said that's a tough shoe. I said this is a tough shoe We're not going to, i'm not going to beat it. You know? And what happened? as you continued.
Speaker 2:
I thought it was going to turn around again.
Speaker 1:
You thought it was going to turn around right, did I hear? thought No, you made a mistake, that's okay. I'm not picking on you, by the way. I'm using it as an example because I was there. So again, is that confidential to get up and leave? No, it's not. But are you going to have the confidence after this meeting to make those kinds of decisions a little more often than you did before? I hope so. Okay, like I said, when Wookie comes back, we'll jump into something else. Okay, can I ask?
Speaker 3:
a quick 5D question.
Speaker 1:
Yes.
Speaker 3:
And your basic disparities, say, are all less than what. Is it three? All less than three.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3:
Disparities in the 5D all less than three.
Speaker 1:
It can use three, three, it doesn't really matter.
Speaker 3:
So I do suggest it being a TBL, a TBL O-T-B-L bet. Excuse me, okay, now I wanna ask you in relation on this chart. In my opinion that might be considered an okay bet Where would you put a neutral going to because they're neutral going to O-T-B-4-L.
Speaker 1:
Okay, what do you? let's use an example. Okay. Okay, we have a banker player opposite. Repeat I caught some O-2, o-t-b-l, some people find this easier O-3 and T-3. Okay, so just tell me which one of these is winning. Just tell me by how much The T-3, o-3 and T-3.
Speaker 3:
O-3 is winning by two, oh, by three.
Speaker 1:
O-3 is winning by two, two, three, four, five, six, seven. One, two, three, four, five. Okay, so there's the two, right there. Okay, how about this one? They're even, they're even, they're even. Oh, i love, that's a good answer. These are even so, whatever the number are six and six or whatever They're even. Okay, the opposite repeats Just make one up.
Speaker 3:
Opposites are head by three.
Speaker 1:
Head by three, okay. One, two, three, four, five, one, two, three, six. They're head by three, okay. Now what about the bankroom player?
Speaker 3:
Bankers head by one.
Speaker 1:
Bankers head by one. so six and a half, Two, three, four, five, six. Okay, so those are the disparities. Now what's your question?
Speaker 3:
From recalling the original 5D manual you wouldn't consider that disparity strong, unless it was 3?.
Speaker 1:
I say 3 or more, 3 or more, 2 or less. So this is 2 or less, it's 2. It happens to be 2. So in the original manual I said this one would become. Your next bet would be whenever an OTBL bet would be How about the even one? Same, i would use OTBL. This is the original manual. What about the opposite? and repeats Same. Well, no, it's 3 or more. It's 3 or more, so you pick the highest. If it's 3 or more, you pick the highest value. It happens to be opposite. So this would be whatever. An opposite bet would be to the last one. Okay, now how about this one? So it's OTBL, right, because it's 2. It's only 1. It's 2 or less OTBL? Okay, in the original manual 5D, the original manual, which is what he's talking about, the one that's on the forum, okay, i used OTBL as the tiebreaker, so I would say this one, that's where it's even used OTBL.
Speaker 1:
So we have 3 OTBLs and one opposite. That might be. I don't know how these numbers are, but that might be all. 4 say bank, it might be 3 say bank and 1 say player. Right, it might be 2 banks and 2 players. Is that possible? No, it's not possible. Why isn't it possible, al? Because you're not bidding, because you want to hear I've got 3 OTBLs. They all have to be the same thing bank or player. So in this case, in the case you gave me, it can't be 2. It can't be 2 to 2. It can be 4, 0, 3, 1. It can't be 2 to 2. Or it can be 1, 3. Okay, so I just want to clarify that.
Speaker 3:
So then to my question 3 out of 4 disparities went to the default, not because that's what was actually happening In relation to the quality. Of that was what the question refers to Would you consider that?
Speaker 2:
an okay bet, or would you?
Speaker 3:
put it on your thing. That's my question.
Speaker 1:
I think this might answer your question. Okay, let's just pretend that. Just pretend. Instead of this being 6 and this being 3. Okay, let's pretend that this is 9 and this is 3. Let's pretend, pretend. Okay, instead of this being, you know, otbl, let's say that these are 2 or less. So it's still OTBL, okay, the idea is is, if one of the disparities Okay, this is the original manual Got to be, i think I used the number 5.
Speaker 1:
If one got to be more than 5, this is 3, this is 9. Right, counting, right, no 10. 9. Well, this is an X. So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9. That's 9. You're right, is that 5 or more? So I said give extra weight to this one, so it could kind of be your tiebreaker. Okay, now that's the original manual. Okay, there wasn't any 10 best bets Clue. There's a clue right there. Okay, let's say that the OT, t2, instead of being even okay, let's just say I'm making this up. Let's just say that O2 and T2, o2 is 3 and T2 is 9. Okay, let's just say it is, instead of using OTBL as the fallback. Which ones do you think I would use OTBL? this is OTBL.
Speaker 3:
OTBL.
Speaker 1:
OTBL Correct, okay. And if this is a fallback, otbl? Why? Because OTBL is what's winning, and it's winning good 9 to 3. So that's not in the original manual? Okay, but what's really not in the original manual is the concept of the 10 best bets, And I don't care if it's 12, i don't care how many you like to use. You know what I mean. That's where the real secret sauce is. This is this numerical counting. Okay, i used OTBL at the time because when I wrote that back in 2014, it just seemed like OTBL was good. You know what I mean.
Speaker 3:
And I'll be honest that I never felt like that was necessary When I was playing with it. I always felt that got me in trouble, that the kind of thing And I felt like I was in a push for something that wasn't there, and that's why I'm asking the question about the quality of that bet And that's where the tip is.
Speaker 1:
Here's if, okay, strictly, strictly if you're going to just say, is it a no bet, bad bet, okay, bad, good, bad, better bet, okay Is if you get all four of these to say the same thing like banker or player, okay, that's generally going to be, you know, at least a better bet, maybe a best bet. I mean, four to zero, is that okay? But if you've got other, you know, if we had a shoe up there, if you had other information like this shoe right here, okay, only three times did the threes go to four. You see what I mean. So that's other information that is not on here. You need to have what's this? You need to build your own toolbox. I don't care how you do it, i don't care how you do it, you know what I mean. And then you need to put it in this is a. Okay, you call it a playbook, call it whatever you want, it's a playbook, okay. And take it to the casino with you.
Speaker 1:
So when you have those kinds of questions, when you're trying to decide, you know between the good, better, best bets, whatever, okay, you know you might want to refer to something. You might say damn, there's a lot of butterflies in that shoe or a lot of ascending and descending patterns. You know, this is the secrets. You know, this is how you help predict things. There is no absolute prediction. No, okay, i'm going to let you eat Bukin, then you'll be next. Go ahead and eat. Okay, you're done, okay.
Speaker 1:
Okay, i get a lot of calls. I mean, i've published my telephone number how many times on the BTC form? At least 50. I mean so because I would much rather. I really don't want to write answers back and forth all day long. I'm a one-finger type or I really don't want to do that. Okay, and I don't go. Sometimes I don't want the form. For three days I don't even know if you've tried to reach me or not, you know. So either text me or call me, if you can.
Speaker 1:
Okay, i get asked this question Will you play this shoe for me? I get it especially from newer players. You know They say yeah, you know I'm trying to do this, and they say will you play this shoe for me? And I say no, i won't. Okay, i said I'll talk you through what I might do, but again, i don't have the entire circumstances. I don't know how much they've lost playing the shoe. You know what I mean. I don't have the context of the 10 best bets. I don't have, you know, i don't know. You know what I'm saying. So I say I won't play. But if you want to talk to me about it, you know I'll talk you through. I'll talk you through what I might have done, but I'm not going to play the shoe because if I get, if we passed out a shoe or we started playing a shoe right now we did this at the last seminar okay.
Speaker 1:
What Keith does on Monday nights right. What does he do on Monday nights? We're not traveling. We're not traveling, right. What does he do? Play sessions right, and 15, 20 people get on, you know, get a lot Right, and he plays it, you know. Okay, now we have two banks in a row. What do you think the next bet? And everybody kind of gets to weigh in on it, right?
Speaker 2:
You know one of the things I always want to say, just to comment on the play sessions. Well, it's just everybody giving you a pin. That's what it's about. You know What do?
Speaker 3:
you think.
Speaker 2:
What do you think? And then you can you know it's like to get you to you know you have to let everybody give their opinion, and then what you should take away from the play session is well, you know this guy addicted to good you know, and this guy you know seemed to pick up pretty well Right, and he's just exceeding the work. That's what the play session is for It's exactly.
Speaker 1:
You discover by yourself, because ultimately you have to make that decision Yeah, and to hear other people talk about okay, i'm going to go with bank because you know back here it was heavy bank, you know what I mean. Or whatever, whatever, or no bet, right, okay, okay, does everybody. I'm going to talk a little bit about what I call garbage bets. This is taking no offense to anybody in this room that plays them, okay.
Speaker 2:
Well, we should have last time, though, Kevin.
Speaker 1:
Oh my God, What we were four or five thousand on that one I saw. Okay, when I say the garbage bets, i'm talking about the panda, the dragon, the this thing 240 to one. Three card, nine over at three cards, seven, 240 to one. At the red rock There's pairs, you know, two, 10s coming out to whatever, all of the ties. By the way, unless you really like to play ties, ties, you're at about a 15% casino advantage. Okay, that they have over you, instead of it being fit, quote, unquote, 50, 50, it's about 15%. Well, that's one of the worst bets in the casino.
Speaker 1:
Now, I'm not saying if you want to play ties, you know, up to you. Okay, now I want to talk about a little bit about knowledge. Okay, let's talk about ties for a second. Does anybody, has anybody ever come across a statistic that ties okay, it's about 62% of them are sixes or sevens. Okay, well, it's true, that's not a dig in Now, i didn't make that up, whatever. And if when you watch next time you play, you'll see now it won't happen in every shoe. So I mean you're going to get nine ties, you're going to get the sevens, i mean eights tie. You're going to get zeroes tie.
Speaker 1:
Okay, if you take all the other. That say 62%. That leaves you with 38%. Nine tie, eight tie, five tie, four tie. Each one of those is roughly around 5% and the 6s and 7s add up to 62%, right on 62%. Now, all those garbage bits I talked about, they're almost all based on 6s and 7s. They have a heavy reliance on 6s and 7s. And why is that? When we went to McAl, we had never I had never heard of it. I don't know if you had heard of it. They had something called Super 6. Oh, yeah, ok.
Speaker 2:
They have that, apologize for everything.
Speaker 1:
Ok, so you had it. See, i had never seen it. So what happens with the Super 6 is if the bank wins with a 6, beats the player, wins with a 6, ok, you only get paid half your bet. Ok, now, these are no commission games though. Ok. So what do you think the commission in the game is? You get paid half your bet. Well, it's a lot higher than half of 5%, 2.5%, because 6 comes up a lot, which is why the ties happen, why you have a lot of 6-6 ties.
Speaker 1:
I mean, i've seen, i've been, you know, the Red Rock, like the other day. I don't know if I'm going to do this here or not, maybe somebody else, but I saw, like banker win by 6, like five times in a row, and it was, it was David, and I said look, another 6. Here's another 6. You know. So that's a panda bet. The player has to beat the bank 8 to 6. That's a panda bet.
Speaker 1:
Ok, so if you see super, if you see dragon bets, which I call garbage bet, that's 40 to 1. But they wouldn't pay you 40 to 1. If it happened 40 to 1 times, believe me, it's probably more like 50 to 1 or something right, it's not 40 to 1. What people do again they might. Let's say you have a $50 bet on banker And that bet is important to you And you really think banker's going to win, ok, what most players will do is they'll put like a dollar on the dragon bet, just in case.
Speaker 1:
Because if the dragon bet, if the dragon bet wins, you know, ok, if it's a three card 7, that beats the player three cards. Ok, unless you have bet on the dragon, you're not going to win. Ok, it's going to be a push. Well, that's where the commission of the game is. That's where the commission is. So you're going to see a lot of things tied into 6s and 7s. Just be aware of that. The reason is because numerically, mathematically, the rules of the game are going to cause the totals He talked about the totals this morning. You're going to see a lot of 6s and a lot of 7s. So just keep that in mind.
Speaker 2:
I'm not you know, do all games have a dragon.
Speaker 1:
No No.
Speaker 2:
California.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, what.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3:
Yeah.
Speaker 1:
But not everyone has them. No, yeah, like at the Red Rock, they call them now something else. They call them the Poisson. Whatever, that's fish, that's fish Kirin. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 3:
What's it on the other side, phoenix, phoenix. OK, OK Well the yellow-eyed hair that raised the question.
Speaker 1:
I was told there's a proverb, is it by your mother?
Speaker 3:
That playing conditions in California for Baccarat are more favorable in Las Vegas rooms. I'm more here towards the casino. That's very important.
Speaker 1:
I don't have enough of an opinion. I have played it to some of those casinos, but I don't know that they're more like anybody, greg.
Speaker 2:
I've played in San Francisco a lot at Bay 101.
Speaker 3:
OK, so I've had a few chances, yep, a couple others over in the open, and they're the exact same rules here OK.
Speaker 1:
I think whoever told you that is pulling your leg, at least for San Francisco area. Yeah, i don't know, janice, it might be absolutely.
Speaker 3:
Say a thing I mentioned bicycle and commerce as being proper casinos, and the conditions are right up there. I wonder if they were talking about the car preparation.
Speaker 1:
I don't know either. I'm going to leave this move on the table.
Speaker 2:
I played the card houses in LA 90% of the time And the commerce and the bike and the lucky lady and the hustler Hollywood Park all have different ways of shuffling. They all have different shuffles And the commerce is harder than any of the rest, although it has the most amount of tables, So you can also find any game that you want. I've had great success in California, but I've had good success here too, So it's how they cut the cards.
Speaker 1:
There's also tables I think they're usually in Indian casinos where you have to put like a dollar up to bet. Yeah it's an average Yeah, 50 cents. I've seen different numbers. It was in California, yeah, so that's another one. That's just another way to kind of squeeze a little bit more. Ok, mike Wilson.