Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com

All Ideas

September 22, 2019 Keith Smith Season 1 Episode 9
Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com
All Ideas
Chapters
Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com
All Ideas
Sep 22, 2019 Season 1 Episode 9
Keith Smith

 
So one of the things I want to talk about today is how systems evolve and develop. And it started churning in my head from a question that I get a lot. You know, someone asked me about a play session and it wasn't the first time is why do you track disparity? And the answer that I wanted to say immediately was I'm really not sure. To be honest with you that's the truth. I'm not really sure why I track disparity, but what I am sure about is that I have a theory about something that I'm trying to prove with this one little tidbit of information. This one statistic that I track and find interesting I think is the key to it. And I'm looking at strong side to be honest with you, to find out what statistic other than just looking at the game and assigning relevance to which side wins the most and which one has two in a rows and the other side doesn't have one in a rows, which side is stronger by another statistic.

And this investigative thought and idea is something that I promote at beat the casino. And my point about this is not necessarily just this statistic, but in everything I hear a lot of, I'm coming up with this approach and it's not quite ready yet and I can't release it or I can't tell anybody about it because it's not presented right. And, and this isn't, it isn't a kind of the philosophy of the forum. We're not marketers to you once you're a member, we're not marketing you a system to play. We're marketing a think tank of ideas and some of those think tanks if some of those ideas are complete. I remember starting about talking about the two-high system and Ellis developed the two -high system and it was really clever. I have to be honest with you. And uh, everyone was kind of asking for the release, asking for the release, asking for the release.

And he kept delaying it and delaying it as I've done with other things too. And he said it wasn't ready yet. It needs to be perfect. And that's what system sellers do. They try to get it as close to perfect as they can, which of course is an unattainable goal. You know, you have to be, uh, satisfied with what you're given at this particular point. And that's when I started to learn the philosophy of how to run a a think tank that looks at winning is, first of all, there'll never be anything that's perfect. And every time you look at systems, there's always going to be a tweak. There's always going to be something that it loses too. But it's this presenting it to the crowd that triggers everyone else to think when you give a system or an approach or an idea, no matter how complete or how incomplete, at least we have something to work with.

And that's the idea of the forum. That's the power of the forum. So with my thing with tracking disparity, I threw it out there and hope that someone else would take off with it because I'm not trying to show you that. Just use disparity and you'll find the key to the kingdom. Perhaps disparity could be used when tracking natural switches. I remember talking to some folks about the latest thread that Canada Bac um, very interesting stuff that he posted and very insightful and a wonderful contributor to, he's talking about his, he looks for natural switches and of course, you know, the statistic is what has happened before will maybe perhaps something into disparity that I mentioned can tie into his natural approach or perhaps maybe the disparity counts of other events as in 5d could help his disparity for naturals or perhaps something in a XTB that's coming up will help him with disparity counts.


You see what I mean? We're always looking for something that is the valid statistic. When W84IT for it mentioned the, uh, visual five d, if you think about it for a second, he put it up and he showed you some examples and, and he said, well, I don't really play it yet. I'm just kind of looking into it. And it's that looking into it and that presenting it to the group is what's valuable so that more

Show Notes Transcript

 
So one of the things I want to talk about today is how systems evolve and develop. And it started churning in my head from a question that I get a lot. You know, someone asked me about a play session and it wasn't the first time is why do you track disparity? And the answer that I wanted to say immediately was I'm really not sure. To be honest with you that's the truth. I'm not really sure why I track disparity, but what I am sure about is that I have a theory about something that I'm trying to prove with this one little tidbit of information. This one statistic that I track and find interesting I think is the key to it. And I'm looking at strong side to be honest with you, to find out what statistic other than just looking at the game and assigning relevance to which side wins the most and which one has two in a rows and the other side doesn't have one in a rows, which side is stronger by another statistic.

And this investigative thought and idea is something that I promote at beat the casino. And my point about this is not necessarily just this statistic, but in everything I hear a lot of, I'm coming up with this approach and it's not quite ready yet and I can't release it or I can't tell anybody about it because it's not presented right. And, and this isn't, it isn't a kind of the philosophy of the forum. We're not marketers to you once you're a member, we're not marketing you a system to play. We're marketing a think tank of ideas and some of those think tanks if some of those ideas are complete. I remember starting about talking about the two-high system and Ellis developed the two -high system and it was really clever. I have to be honest with you. And uh, everyone was kind of asking for the release, asking for the release, asking for the release.

And he kept delaying it and delaying it as I've done with other things too. And he said it wasn't ready yet. It needs to be perfect. And that's what system sellers do. They try to get it as close to perfect as they can, which of course is an unattainable goal. You know, you have to be, uh, satisfied with what you're given at this particular point. And that's when I started to learn the philosophy of how to run a a think tank that looks at winning is, first of all, there'll never be anything that's perfect. And every time you look at systems, there's always going to be a tweak. There's always going to be something that it loses too. But it's this presenting it to the crowd that triggers everyone else to think when you give a system or an approach or an idea, no matter how complete or how incomplete, at least we have something to work with.

And that's the idea of the forum. That's the power of the forum. So with my thing with tracking disparity, I threw it out there and hope that someone else would take off with it because I'm not trying to show you that. Just use disparity and you'll find the key to the kingdom. Perhaps disparity could be used when tracking natural switches. I remember talking to some folks about the latest thread that Canada Bac um, very interesting stuff that he posted and very insightful and a wonderful contributor to, he's talking about his, he looks for natural switches and of course, you know, the statistic is what has happened before will maybe perhaps something into disparity that I mentioned can tie into his natural approach or perhaps maybe the disparity counts of other events as in 5d could help his disparity for naturals or perhaps something in a XTB that's coming up will help him with disparity counts.


You see what I mean? We're always looking for something that is the valid statistic. When W84IT for it mentioned the, uh, visual five d, if you think about it for a second, he put it up and he showed you some examples and, and he said, well, I don't really play it yet. I'm just kind of looking into it. And it's that looking into it and that presenting it to the group is what's valuable so that more

Speaker 1:

So one of the things I want to talk about today is how systems evolve and develop. And it started churning in my head from a question that I get a lot. You know, someone asked me about a play session and it wasn't the first time is why do you track disparity? And the answer that I wanted to say immediately was I'm really not sure. To be honest with you that's the truth. I'm not really sure why I track disparity, but what I am sure about is that I have a theory about something that I'm trying to prove with this one little tidbit of information. This one statistic that I track and find interesting I think is the key to it. And I'm looking at strong side to be honest with you, to find out what statistic other than just looking at the game and assigning relevance to which side wins the most and which one has two in a rows and the other side doesn't have one in a rows, which side is stronger by another statistic. And this investigative thought and idea is something that I promote at beat the casino. And my point about this is not necessarily just this statistic, but in everything I hear a lot of, I'm coming up with this approach and it's not quite ready yet and I can't release it or I can't tell anybody about it because it's not presented right. And , and this isn't, it isn't a kind of the philosophy of the forum. We're not marketers to you once you're a member, we're not marketing you a system to play. We're marketing a think tank of ideas and some of those think tanks if some of those ideas are complete. I remember starting about talking about the two-high system and Ellis developed the two -high system and it was really clever. I have to be honest with you. And uh , everyone was kind of asking for the release, asking for the release, asking for the release. And he kept delaying it and delaying it as I've done with other things too. And he said it wasn't ready yet. It needs to be perfect. And that's what system sellers do. They try to get it as close to perfect as they can, which of course is an unattainable goal. You know, you have to be , uh , satisfied with what you're given at this particular point. And that's when I started to learn the philosophy of how to run a a think tank that looks at winning is, first of all, there'll never be anything that's perfect. And every time you look at systems, there's always going to be a tweak. There's always going to be something that it loses too . But it's this presenting it to the crowd that triggers everyone else to think when you give a system or an approach or an idea, no matter how complete or how incomplete, at least we have something to work with. And that's the idea of the forum. That's the power of the forum. So with my thing with tracking disparity, I threw it out there and hope that someone else would take off with it because I'm not trying to show you that. Just use disparity and you'll find the key to the kingdom. Perhaps disparity could be used when tracking natural switches. I remember talking to some folks about the latest thread that Canada Bac um , very interesting stuff that he posted and very insightful and a wonderful contributor to, he's talking about his, he looks for natural switches and of course, you know, the statistic is what has happened before will maybe perhaps something into disparity that I mentioned can tie into his natural approach or perhaps maybe the disparity counts of other events as in 5d could help his disparity for naturals or perhaps something in a X TB that's coming up w ill help him with disparity counts. You see what I mean? We're always looking for something that is the valid statistic. When W84IT for it mentioned the , uh, visual five d, if you think about it for a second, he put it up and he showed you some examples and, and he said, well, I don't really play it yet. I'm just kind of looking into it. And it's that looking into it and that presenting it to the group is what's valuable so that more eyes can look at it. And Jimmy Baccarat when he did his wonderful Twos program with all the videos he made. I mean, he was improvising at some level and saying, look, this is what I found out. What do you guys see? Take a look at this. This is how I play this stuff. And, and that sort of, well here, here's a couple ideas. That sort of thing is what needs to be preserved all the time here. It's not just make a complete system and give it to the, to the , uh, to the group. That's what you do when you're marketing. I'm not marketing to anyone. The only one. I'm the only thing I'm trying to convince you of is that you don't really, no one will be able to teach you how to play, how to win. I can't teach you that. No one can teach you how to win . You actually have to teach yourself. And I learned this. I think now understand I've been playing longer than anybody in this forum. I , I'm 63 or 62. I can't remember. Maybe I'm getting too old. I've been playing since I've been 21 since it was legal. And probably before that I've been playing cards before it was illegal, I played baccarat. But in any event, my point is, is that you teach yourself how to play. And you do this by incrementally learning bits and pieces from everybody and synthesizing it, I don't want to say into your own style, but into your own game. And that's why some people struggle with this game is I have a lot of folks in the forum and I want you to learn this and this is a hard lesson to learn. Okay? And some of them have been here for years and they'll say, okay, what do I do? What do I , how do I do this? We can't, I can't teach you or no one can teach you what to think. We have to teach you how to think about the game and what you're looking for in the game. And you're going to have to find the game that fits your strategy or fits the style of how much information you can assimilate to then play in win and what I mean by that is some people can't handle the wealth of information that a game throws at you and some people can handle all sorts of information. It's how much can you track and what can you keep in your head and what can you identify in the game that's going to make you a winner. That's the difference between someone who can win and someone who just goes around guessing. If you can track 20 or 30 things, look what's you're looking for, whether you play a 5d or Thai Bac or the Twos or Time Before Last. If you're a system player and you're looking for games like that, you're looking for what works in a game. You're looking at all the statistics and you're trying to quantify what statistic works and the more you can track and the more you can understand and the more you can make it part of yourself that's important. And you make it part of yourself. By this. When I was younger, I started taking guitar lessons October 2nd, 1965 okay. I incrementally learn how to play guitar week over week, month over month, year over year. And I found that this small incremental improvement has an effect until you can, you become a really good player. Okay? It's the same thing I've learned that lesson hard is that week over week you have to incrementally become a good player and take bits and pieces. So to that point, the most important thing is yes, read all the systems and people have to give us incomplete systems, incomplete ideas, ideas, but, and even ideas that are terrible or rehash of old, you know, at least there's something to start with. So throw something out there, even if you've never done that. But all these folks trying to put things together that are complete, that's not necessary. That isn't the purpose of this group, okay? But went back to my point is week over week you practice and you get better and you start developing a sense about the game. So listen, the most important thing you do is read everything everyone says and talk to people. But come to practice, come to the Monday night sessions where everyone is talking about the game and you have it not a time to actually practice and coalesce all the thoughts and ideas from this forum into your strategy and learn to do that almost automatically. That's what some of the players do and they don't understand it . Some of them they'll say, well I don't know. I just feel like it's this. And if you watch the players who've been playing for years and years, they really don't feel anything. They actually are using a statistic that they're not quite aware of, that they've actually seen in the game so many times that it just triggers them to do something. Okay now many, you know, many great players have come and gone and one of the things I always protect in this forum as I'm sure you understand, is that there's no dumb idea. Ideas don't have to be complete. We can talk about stuff that that's rehashed. I remember couple years ago now, player came in and Nice Fella, I, at least I thought he was nice, but the forum didn't take too off to him because he was in here promoting, not promoting, but just talking about how he plays on paper and using a up as you lose progression and you know, he'd show you 20 cards where you know, he got up to betting 32 and you know, still won the game. And of course everyone kind of ridiculed him. Uh, when he would say stuff of this nature. Of course, eventually if we would have let him go, he probably would've had some value because he was participating in the conversation, playing real games and throwing them out there for everyone to look at. So, you know, even those types of things have value because it may trigger someone else to think of something, you know. And, and more recently , um, you know, a couple of my, my good friend , you know , Mike, who's since left and is mad at me, but that's okay. Um, when I mentioned 2-2-1 one, he took it upon himself to go ahead and , and look at the a plus one system and um, as he called it then and uh, of course people who took offense to that for some reason. Um, and you know, I thought it was like extremely viable and I've played it and I've learned some things from playing plus one that I think are valuable and I think many others have, but immediately was tried to be quelled and it wasn't perfect when he presented it, but it was the conversation of talking about it and tweaking it and seeing what happens that made it better and gave people real experience. I mean, he was a real player playing for real money in the casino. That was a great thing. And posting about it yet people, some players, and we all know who they were. I don't have to mention them, didn't like this or thought they knew everything and they tried to stop this discussion or left because they wouldn't be a part of this. I mean, that's silliness if you think about it. The whole thing is about discussing this stuff. So now I'm hearing well my stuff isn't done. I can't present it yet and you know, they think it should be in this format and that format and to present it to the group, listen, present what you got. That's my message to you. I've got over 150 premium m embers' eyes looking at this stuff. That's what you want. Even if it's imperfect, we're g oing t o make it perfect. We're gonna try it. We're gonna have players doing it. We're g oing t o mention it in the practice sessions. Okay? You're not responsible for making a perfect approach. Even if you've got an idea for stick . A statistic that we never talked about. When I talk about ties, everybody goes, where's your tie thing? I'm still thinking about it, but I threw it out there. Here, I'm tracking these. Let's someone else think about them too and find your reality when you go play, do you see anything else? That is what this is about. We're not giving you a system to go play because you'll never be a winner like that. You have to teach yourself incrementally week over week, read what everyone has to say. Come to practice. No one can teach you how to win. You have to teach yourself. Start where you are and pick up if you're contributing, throw out what you got. Complete, incomplete, dumb, stupid will tell you. Maybe you have a jewel of brilliance. I, you know, just, just a jewel of brilliance . Me and Kevin talk a lot and I was talking to him the other day and you know, we , we have a million ideas all the time, but he said one to me that was just an absolute jewel of brilliance and I thought I mentioned it to you. He said, you know, when you do these practice sessions, why don't you simply record the first 25 hands? You know, now that should be so obvious to anyone, but I never thought about that. I always start off dealing the hands first, 10 or 15 of them. He said, why don't you record 25 of them first, give it to them in advance and then play it . What a jewel of brilliance that was to make the play sessions better. You know? And it was just this conversation about something stupid that brought that about. And so it's the same concept. So I would encourage you, whatever you have, put it out there for the group, whether you think it's dumb, complete isn't in the best format. Put it out there. We'll take a look at it. We'll tweak it. At least we have some place to start. That is what this forum is about and I want to protect that. And if anyone tells you that something shouldn't be posted because it's incomplete, that's not a good idea. Okay? Post it . We want to see it. If you put time and effort into doing something, I'd really like to see it. And I know others would too. All right . This is Keith from beat Tuxedo. Hope to talk to you soon.