Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com - Baccarat and Blackjack Strategy Discussion

Part 1 Discussion of Blackjack and Card Counting

February 17, 2020 Keith Smith
Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com - Baccarat and Blackjack Strategy Discussion
Part 1 Discussion of Blackjack and Card Counting
BeatTheCasino.com Baccarat & Blackjack
Help us continue making great content for listeners everywhere.
Starting at $3/month
Support
Show Notes Transcript

The part 1 discussion of Blackjack and Card Counting.  I try to dispell the myths that you have to have a genius I.Q. to count cards.  It is rather a simple procedure and with my series on Blackjack shows you exactly how to play against random cards and non-random BJ conditions.  Get my Free book on Blackjack and how to play against non-random cards here

Join up and gather with us for live play sessions in Niagara Falls and also in Las Vegas.

Join our forum at http://forum.BeatTheCasino.com/

•   Forget System Sellers they just take your money, we teach you how to win by mentoring other players.  
•   No outlandish fees.
•   No systems,  we teach you all of the systems anyone has ever made.  

All based on solid statistics.  There are no secret - holy grails just good common sense approach on how to win.. Join us now.

Support the show

Thanks for listening to our Podcast.

speaker 0:   0:00
okay, Keith here because, you know, I wanted to talk a little bit about our edge Blackjack, serious that I'm starting. You know, there's a lot of blackjack players, and, you know, I think it's important to understand, understand the game, understand the rules, understand? Really were the advantages derived in blackjack. You know where there's just traditional ways to play, and also what are some of the more modern and not random ways to play, as we used to call it club style blackjack. So I thought I'd start. You know, usually, when you when you start learning blackjack, the first thing they throw at you is a basic strategy chart, and they tell you to to learn, learn these, learn these rules and always play this way. And that's certainly part of it. We'll learn basic strategy and went to apply it. However, I don't I don't want to start their cause. I don't think it's the best place to start. I think the first thing to do I got these monarch cards. They're pretty actually nice. Get a load of that one, huh? It's actually the best place to start is, you know, understanding what you're trying to do. It looks like everything's here, what you're trying to do with with the cards and with blackjack. So, um, the first thing I want you understand is that we usually and I'm going to use what's called the basic high, low count structure. Okay, um, and and there's a lot of different ways to count cards, but this is certainly one of the simplest ways, and it's it's certainly effective. And, uh, and we'll separate. The first thing I want to do is separate the high cards from a low cards and, you know, talk about that a little bit. And then, you know, maybe some of this stuff, you know, and some of it you don't. I noticed one thing about blackjack players is their ego tends to be a little big. They think that it's some sort of rocket science that they're doing. I'm gonna disprove that that it's it's really not rocket science, Okay? It's really kind of just real simple math. Simple, not necessarily even math. Simple arithmetic, you know, I mean, somebody figured out how to beat the game when the cards were random. Now we're going to talk a lot about random cards, you know, in basic strategy and non random cards and all this and that, you know, we're gonna get into a lot of different things, a lot of your theories of Black Jack. But it is basic arithmetic. It's not even mathematics, OK, and it's memorizing card place. So I want to dismiss the meth that it is some sort of, you know, extremely difficult and, you know, it takes a genius to do it type thing. But I think maybe you know that it's it's all kind of hype. Okay, so what I did is I separated the deck and we'll start with one deck. Of course, we play with multiple decks. All that stuff's coming. But I wanted to get a good foundation so that you understand the basics and see really, how simple it actually is to understand the game, understand where your edge comes from and what's the best way to play in a lot of different circumstances. So I grew up the cards into high cards in low cards, and again there's other counselors, you know, unbalanced council. We're going to start with the basics in any variation to I want to just emphasizes it's not really rocket science, and it takes a genius to figure this out. It's just little variations of the game that in different circumstances, with more Dexter, less tax or different rules give you just a little bit better edge. Okay, there are two schools of thought in blackjack so far as the cards go. One of them came about in the early fifties, late fifties, early sixties is his card counting, and that's what we're gonna talk about first. The premise that card counting is based upon was founded with the premise, but it was founded when, when most people played with one deck or two decks it most and, uh and and so you know, that's how it started. The thing with one deck is it's very easy to randomize one back. Okay, when we started adding more decks, we got into folks who came about who started talking about non random strategies about the cards not being shuffled enough about the cards being picked up in specific orders and that continuing throughout the game. And that certainly lends itself to another strategy. So those are the two schools of thoughts. Okay, um, one of things I want to make clear is that no one argues on, for my least from my perspective, about the only arguments I get or that the cards were either random or they're not random. If the cards were random, the best way to play the game is pretty much basic strategy, with little variation. Of course, again, as I talk about a lot is that the cards have to be random. And if the cards are not random, then they lend themselves to some sort of stability, and basic strategy will be beaten. No one argues with the mathematics of basic strategy. As a matter of fact, when guys come into the form and they expound all these, all the numbers and everything that's been regurgitated for years and years and years and years explaining the variants of card counting and why this, and why that that's all fine and dandy. It's all true if the cards are random and that's our only contention is that sometimes the cards are not random, so understand no one is arguing against the count strategies or anything like that. What they don't accept is that thegame sometimes is non random, which they have a hard time understanding. I think anyway, I digress a little bit, so we set up the cards. Let's talk about traditional card counting with 11 deck and what exactly we're trying to do. And it does. It does. It does translate to the other decks. It's a little bit with a little bit of kind of enhancement to it. So so it does scale to the other decks. But if you understand the basics with one Dex, it'll scale to the other decks and the concepts are still the same. Okay, so I ordered the cards in high cards. And again, this is a simple, high low count, and we should have 20 high cards. Okay? 123456789 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 1920 being. And we should have 20 low cards. 123456789 10 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920 the rest are neutral. 12 right? 123 56789 10 11 52 cards in one deck. Okay, so high cards in low cards. So by the rules of the game, by the rules of the game. The way the game is played, high cards favor the player. And there's one reason the high cards favor the player. Okay is that they favor the player because the dealer must hit was certain hands totals and the player has the option not to hit. So when the when there's more high cards left in the deck and the dealer has to hit and the player can stand, that 10 card will pretty much always freaked them. Okay, with a stiff hand. Okay, so here's our low cards. Now the first thing I want you to understand is that the object that card counters air trying to d'oh is they're trying to locate where the tens are if there's an abundance of them. Okay, also, I want you to understand that the only rule that you have to overcome and blackjack when you're playing traditional blackjack with rules is that if you both break on the same hand, the dealer wins. Every other rule favors the player. You can bet whatever you want. Sometimes you can split. You could buy insurance. You could double think of all the rules you could. You could surrender. In some cases, all those rules don't favor the dealer. They give you another option. Oh, here's the most important one. You can play your cards anyway. You want to, can't you? The dealer can only play his card one way. They must always hit the 17. Okay, so let's let's now that we were gonna talk about that, we're gonna talk about that a little bit. But let's say, for instance, if we're dealing out of this deck and let's just use high cards and low cards for now, okay, let let's shuffle these together, makes him up a little back. And let's forget about the rules for a second. Let's just play a game and we'll call it 21 just just to demonstrate the point of if you both break on the same hand now, is that fair? Well, if you both break on the same hand, if you if you break it into dealer subsequently breaks, the dealer keeps your money right, that's a tie. Okay, so basically, when you have a break, Ty, when you both break, the dealer wins, Okay, But let's say, for instance, that rule doesn't apply, Okay? So just for demonstration purposes. If we each deal two cards to each player and we both have to play to hit the 17 who in the long run is goingto win? Well, nobody. It's gonna be a dead even game because you're just gonna get as many breakable hands and hit with a 10 as the dealer will. Okay, here, the dealer just happened to win this one, or whoever you're figuring is the dealer. It's gonna be a push, like it's just gonna go back and forth. You're gonna win one. The dealer's gonna win one. Okay, We'll just call that 21 20. It's you're just playing war up to 21 because no one will actually win. The dealer broke. So you're just playing war basically, without that rule, so you're you're gonna win by luck. So it's It's a 50 50 gamble. Now, if you add the blackjack in there like we got pays one and 1/2 Well, then the guy, the player who would get paid one and 1/2 to 1, the player would have a small advantage plan that game, that Okay, But then they added the rule that says, Well, jeez, if you break, and then the dealer subsequently ranks, wait and break their Let's say Okay, who wins? The dealer, Okay. Doesn't give your money back after he breaks. Okay, so that's the only rule you have to overcome. Okay, so I want to make that clear. Now, what are we trying to do? They usually teach of these best way to play, to play hands where you can gain an advantage, and then they add indexes to them and what not? But let's talk about card counting for a second, because that's what I want you to learn first. Okay, Is how do you count the cards? Well, counting the cards is simply just adding one and subtracting one on a running a scale. Okay, The low cards count plus one high cards count minus one. Now, remember, the minus cards are player favorable. So if you have a minus count, then that's dealer field. If you have a plus count, that's player. Favorable. Okay, so let's take a look at this. That means what? What does that mean? Well, let's take a look at Okay, So if we let we'll call this. I guess we'll call this the dealer, okay? so it would work. Counting cards that will be down and the players usually tell up. Okay, the low cards count plus one high cards count minus one. Now, the way you want to count them is don't go. +10 Just group them together. Y'all. It always starts at zero. Okay, so here the count zero. Now here it's minus one. But let's let's see what what we're gonna do here first. This is a soft 15 right? Okay, so there we there. We hit it with a six. OK, so now we're a 21. Doesn't get much better than that. Now, all you have to do for the count here is realized. That high card in a low card is zero high card and look high. Cardinal. Oh, cart is here. So the count zero. This would be minus one and back to zero than minus one in back to zero. But you just group them together. Some people go to to that way too. So we have 21 so the dealer turns over. Okay, Now, since it's an individual card account, I just wait, Okay? It's I still think zero and there's there's a high card now, So zero again. Okay, Now the dealer must hit. Okay, so he's at 14. 15. Just wait. Break. Okay, Now we read zero at this point, right? And then to low cards are high cards. I'm sorry. So the count is minus two. That means all that means is this is that there's two more. Two more high cards, two more low cards. I'm sorry in this deck than there are high cards. And if if we would if we would drill them out, you'd see that. And why are low cards favorable to the dealer? Because when the dealer has to hit, if there's more low cards, the dealer has less of a chance to break. Okay, So if we deal them all out just to take a look, we said there should be two Maur low cards, that high cards. So we're gonna find out here for count, Right? Okay. On DDE for, uh Okay. So let's Let's Callum. Okay. 123456789 10 11 12 13 14 15. High cards. 123456789 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17. Okay, 17 low cards. Okay, So what does that mean? It means that work too High cards short. So this is a minus two count. This is a minus two deck. Okay, that's all this is. That means there's two two more high cards in this deck than our low cards. So there's two more opportunities. Okay, if the dealer has 17 or less when they hit that, they're going to get a low card. That's all. That means it's like doing the beads. It's doing the beads. Okay. So if well, if we deal this hand, let's see what happens here. Okay? Remember, Don't count yet, so let's make this the player. Okay? Okay. So now we have a bunch of low cards. Okay, so we were at minus two. Okay, Now we're at zero plus one. Okay, But we're gonna hit. Probably stand there. Plus two. Right. Plus three plus four plus five. Okay, so now it's varied player. Favorable. It's plus five. There's five more high cards in here. Okay, if we check it. 123456789 10 11 12 13 14 15. 123456789 10. Okay, so we didn't shuffle, So I did that on purpose because I wanted to show demonstrate to you one thing which I'm gonna talk about it. Since this is just the high level overview. When you're dealing from low cards, basic strategy teaches you. I always stand when the dealer has a low card up and you have a total that's stiff for the most part, most time. Okay. I wanted to demonstrate that when you're dealing out of low cards, the dealer cannot break. The only way the dealer could break is with the high card. So even though the count can be high okay, six a eight. 13. Okay, so this would be the situation, and you would ultimately stand there. Okay, he would turn over a six. And what would happen? He couldn't hit it with impunity and beat you all the time. Okay, so that's what happens in low card clubs when the cards are not random. Okay, It beats basic strategy. Even though the count's rising. The converse is also true when you're dealing mostly from from from high cards. Okay, you do have a little bit of advantage with the blackjack, but you'll push a lot of black checks when you're dealing from a high card club. What's going to happen? You're gonna push hands that you generally win? Okay. All right, that happens. Okay, you count on winning. This has, don't you? Now that can the dealer break no areas, get a blackjack. Okay, so beach it. So? So consequently, high card clumps and low card clubs are not good. Okay? The cards need to be random for basic strategy toe work. Really? Well, okay. And and it's really a real short advantage, too. I mean, it's it's not a really huge advantage, but it is, in fact, an advantage if you learn how to count. So we talked about basically what is the best? The rule that you're trying to overcome in blackjack? And that is, if you both break in the same hand. The dealer wins All the other rules favor the player we talked about counting. Okay, we talked about We separate the cards from high cards and low cards and all we're trying to identify while counting is how many more tens are there? Are there more tens or are there less tens left in this death That's all we're trying to do. If there's more low cards it favors now, the neutral cards usually don't help hurt either one. They're kind of. That's why they call them neutral now. They do have, in effect, I mean, a nine of us, the dealer, once a while, NATO bus to deal or seven. Almost dealer, but with some of the lower hands, it pretty much will even out to have a 13. It hit within eight. Right? Okay, so So that's why tens are disadvantaged to the dealer. Okay, so if we deal from, will see a different complexion in the game. Now we put in the neutral cards and everything else warmer counting. Remember? First thing you want to D'oh! I'll just put that down. Okay, so here, we'll talk about basic strategy and in the next video. But this is a soft 15. Okay, remember, counting you just group those. This is minus one. Okay, there's a neutral card. Now we're at 13. Okay. We'd probably hit against a 10 and we and we break their 13. Okay? Okay. So again to count. Okay, let's turn the service area. Blackjack did matter. Okay, so to count your groupies. That zero. Look. 123 minus three. And that's a neutral car. So it's minus three. So you don't wanna bet too much. Okay, Minus three. There's three more low cards in this deck right now, so that's gonna favor the dealer. Okay, so let's do a couple more. Oh, it's turning. Okay, well, 16 against a three. Okay, You're gonna group. These is still minus three. Turn this over. Still minus three. Group those two high card low card, which equals zero. Now the dealer must hit. Okay, Now, remember, it's minus three. That means there's three extra low cards in this deck. Okay, well, let's hope that they don't. They don't show their face now, huh? Okay, we got lucky. Now it's minus four. Okay. Minus for you still don't want a battle line. Okay, so let's go ahead and deal. One more. Okay. 18. Okay. Minus four, minus five. If he has to hit, there's probably gonna be a low card minus five minus four. Now, let's see what happens. 13 at minus four. Count with a single deck broke again. Minus five. Okay, let's try one more. Don't bet a lot. Okay? I think we said we were a minus five. No change. Okay, minus four. We're gonna stand minus floor minus three minus four. He's got a head, right? Oh, what? He broke with the sex can be mighty. Is three okay? Oh, no, no, that's 15 21. Sorry about that. I thought I thought I had 16. Okay, so there you see it. You know, the richness of the low cars, and then they finally call one to beat you. Okay. Okay. So you kind of get the idea. So what you want to practice first thing to do when you're practicing is don't don't learn. The basic strategies chart is Just get yourself a deck of cards and this is the first way. There's a lot of ways to practice, but I just want you to start with two hands, and it doesn't matter which which ones you call the dealer player. Okay. But I want you to start grouping cards as you see them, and you can play the hands if you want. Like, this is 11. He'd had say with double. Okay, 17. So when you're counting this you group the neutral cards which count nothing. You group A high card in a low card which count nothing. And then anything left over. Here's a low card account plus one. So this would be were at plus one and then deal out some more hands. Okay. Okay. So plus one, it zero right. Here's 13 at withstand. So we're a plus. One plus two, Still plus two. Dealer has to hit. Plus two plus one. Neutral Anyone? Okay, so that's how you want to kind of get used to counting. Okay. You don't want to go through like this Minus one minus two. Okay. Minus one. That does you no good. That isn't how the cards in the casino adults start very slow by looking at two hands, and I'm probably doing us a little bit backwards, but, um, and grouping cards that could be minus two. Okay, this is this is zero. Okay, so zero minus one minus to this would have minus one. Okay, so again, t My point is, if you simply wait for the round to be over, it's a little easier to group cards that equals zero, and then that equals that is your account. Okay. Okay. So that's called the running count. And with a single deck, it's also the camper deck. We'll talk a little bit. Well, now we'll talk a lot about the Count Project and the running count in the next over the next couple videos. But that's the first thing I wanted you to get the basics. I wanted you to understand the rule that you're trying to be, and I wanted to understand what counters air trying to do, which is locate tens, whether there's a 10 rich deck or whether there's a low card rich deck and make your bets according to that, the size of your bets will learn basic strategy has done. And then we'll also learn the non randomness of cards. And what happens as I showed you when I dealt from all tens and all low cards. OK, what happens and how to play against those things. It does lend itself to some unique opportunities. Okay, so that's the first. The first video in the edge. Blackjack. Siri's here, so I hope you enjoyed it. Hubby. Hope you learned a little bit from it, and we'll talk more about it in the next video when we get to basic strategy. Okay, Thanks a lot