Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com - Baccarat and Blackjack Strategy Discussion

Two Basic Betting Approaches to Baccarat Time Before Last And Opposite Time Before Last

May 07, 2020 Keith Smith Season 1 Episode 4
Keith Smith of BeatTheCasino.com - Baccarat and Blackjack Strategy Discussion
Two Basic Betting Approaches to Baccarat Time Before Last And Opposite Time Before Last
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Getting into a discussion about Opposite Time Before Last and Time Before Last Baccarat Approach.


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Okay, Keith here, from Beat to Casino. Welcome back today to her nightly broadcast about baccarat and blackjack. I know. Last night we had a great discussion about some legacy systems. I think we were talking about System 40 on combining that with opposite time before last and some other things. And, you know, we'll pick it up from there. Let me just bring up the chat window here and see, uh, see who were who's chatting with this here. Okay, great. So ask your questions in the chat window. We can certainly discuss anything that you want to talk about. I believe, though, I'll pick it up with where we left off last night. We were talking about using in a time before last, and and it sounds like some people are trying to get in touch with me. Here, let me just take a look. Uh, in case it's somebody trying to get into the chat. Um, now we're fine. Okay. Um, time before last was our last topic last night, and we were used talking about that, combining it with a system 40 which was always been opposites. One of the questions waas when you use opposite time before last. What do you do after each event? So basically again to kind of restate what we were talking about? There's a really easy way to up to watch time before last. You can go ahead and simply bet opposite after a repeat and repeat after an opposite. So you're always gonna lose toe one in arose, which is the downside to opposite time before last. Of course, Contrast that to System 40 is you're gonna win everyone in a row. So those two approaches when you're in the game and you want to try to make some strategic concepts. Those two approaches complement each other. Really well, you win. All the one in arose with system 40. You win. All the to ing arose with the OTB for Al. Consequently, you don't lose the two in a rose in system 40. You win one chip and the same is true. Is if you better negative progression with opposite time before last. Pardon me? You win one chip on every two in a row. So you're gonna win betting a short negative progression with system 40 an OTB for for how you're gonna win everyone in a row on every two in a room. That a curse which isn't bad. So again, though, you you certainly have to go around and match the table to the gay or to your strategy. So you have two to pick from. If you're just starting out, you're gonna learn system 40 an opposite time before last, and try to find tables where those two ah two approaches will beat the game. And you could switch back and force when you see triggers. Hey, hey, I see some folks Aer here. Don Fuller of our Forum. Mike Wilson. I'm here to Hi Don, How are you? I was picking up the discussion tonight just since you guys just joined us. Forgive me for repeating it. I was talking about Legacy system 40 an opposite time before last. Words get a lot of questions about that last night, so I just wanted to pick up and see if everybody's clear on System 40 and opposite time before last. Okay, so consequently, then the other approach that you want to have in your arsenal of tricks is time before last and time before last. It's probably one of the most played system in baccarat if you don't know it. It's very interesting. And it's simply played like this. Whatever. One the time before last is what you bet. Okay, Relevant to the side. So, for instance, if banker wins the first hand Okay, so you don't know what happened the time before that yet? Because it's a new shoe. And then on the second hand, banker wins. Okay, so now you're ready to set and choose something to bet on the third hand. Will you look back to hands? So the second hand was banker. Now, the first hand was banker, so time before last. That's banker it. That's exactly what occurred on the hand to hands ago. Okay, so that's a really interesting concept. Now, what will happen if you bet time before last? Well, if you bet time before last every zig zag run everyone that goes Banker, player, banker, player, banker player You're going to win. Okay, You're gonna win every one of those bets also to you're gonna win every long run. Okay, That starts at three. Now, at three. You're gonna break even because what will happen is if banker wins the first hand and player. Let's a player wins the next hand. Now your next bet is banker. Okay, Now, if you play time before last, you're gonna go over to player on the next hand. If you kind of visualize that Well, let's say banker wins. So you just lost that Because it's a potential two in a row. Time before last will lose toe. All too in arose every hand. Okay, so now for you to win this, you have to catch up by betting two units on banker again. And if it goes to a three, then of course you want. Okay, so, three in a row, pretty much they'll come up every once in a while. Issue now it likes three in a row. Zit likes foreign arose. Even Maurin five and Rose and six arose. All the long runs You're absolutely going, Teoh. Win Every one of those three. Only thing that you're going to get jammed up in is to in a rose and one of the rose followed by 21 twos, one to ones. Stuff like that really just send you down the wrong path with time before last. So experiment with it and you'll see what I'm talking about. Now there's a lot of discussion. OK. Hi, James. How you doing? Thanks for stopping by and joining us tonight. Yeah, nice to see you. Also to what you'll see with time before last is a lot of folks like to bet it with a really strong progression. And, of course, you know, we don't We don't recommend that. But a lot of folks like to use a Fibonacci with it, and you know, if you can do it for really low stakes and when I mean really, low stakes is, you know, you know, I'm talking if you can bet it in a dollar game or something like that, because you can get out of control and it isn't something you want to do, but to have some fun with it, you can You can bet. Fibonacci, let me talk about the Fibonacci. I think most people who gamble know what a Fibonacci is, if not all explaining. It's just a sick sequence of numbers that adds the last two numbers to the progression. Whether it be up a, you win our oppa's you lose now. Originally, it starts with most people. Don't start it where it actually starts. that it actually starts at zero and then one. So then it goes 0112358 13 2134. So on 55 so on and so forth. Okay, that's how many times you would actually go up. And every if you win any of those you you'll end up winning. You win the some of the last two. Especially if you do it enough because you went. But some folks like to do it as it up is you win trying to win three or four hands in a row so they generally don't started. Zero. They'll just start at once. To the Fibonacci sequence goes ones to 12358 13. So if you think about it, if I bet one and win one Okay, so now I'm one chip up now. I bet now I bet two. Okay, then I bet three. Now what happens is is any time you win, you always win the some of the last two. So if you bet if you bet 12 now you're up three. And now you bet all this. So you have to win the three bat. Now you're up six with 12 in the three. Now you bet five. So at that point, if you lose the five, you're still up one chip less than they. So you have to get to a streak at least that long toe win any chips. Now, when you also to when you get to the higher to the hired numbers. In theory, when you're doing on paper as you know, if you're a baccarat blackjack player, in theory, when you actually play it, it's one thing to actually bet. It's another thing to do it on paper. Because now when you're betting, you know, let's say, for instance, to get up to 12358 13 Okay, well, in quarters, you know, that's $325 or 1300 if you're playing black. So in theory, it's easy to write that number down and circle it like you want. But where most people would fall short is they wouldn't actually make the actual. But of course, who has the bankroll? And if you if you don't have the bankrolling you actually, when all those bets up to that point, who's actually gonna bet you're gonna take the wind and go home? Probably. So. In any event, that's that is the time before last system again. It's really popular with folks who like to bet progressions up you win up is you lose. Now again, the great thing about time before last. If you get a good, choppy zigzag game of lots of one in a rose or a good straight run game. Ah, strong side, banker or player, you can't miss with it. It's gonna It's gonna run your write up the positive side of things. So So that's our time before last. Okay, I played a system 40 and one high James conservative on the six chops in the six streaks I would flatbed an increase half my bet each time until it lost. Yeah, you could do that. You just have to be careful with negative progressions. You know, what you can do is, ah, a lot of folks, if you're playing in a, let's, say, a $10 game. If it's a stadium Bachrach game, you can usually find the stakes and you're tryingto experiment with these approaches. Uh, and you're looking for a good system 40 game. You can start with two, which is $10. Well, you could even find a fine dollar game on state baccarat, actually, but you can start with to think of starting your negative progression as 234 or 235 if you want to break even on the 3rd 1 And sometimes that gives you a little bit more torque, especially if you find yourself winning the to the first battle lot. So if you're winning the first that a lot and betting a 234 would actually be a better way to better than a 123 So so take a look at all the different variations of how to bet either flat betting or betting a 123 negative or 234 negative or a 123 positive. I can tell you that positive progressions are certainly a good way to play. Sometimes especially, you know, when you identify a bias either a strong side streak or are extremely choppy game. I found it, and and most players will agree that it works best when you identify a strong stride strong side street, for instance, on banker or player or something Along those lines, Tibet it a little. A little, A little stronger up issue. Win progression, maybe a 1235 on, then just continue to bet the five and to you, too. You missed the last one, so it's a great way to win. Great. All the things to think about now. Not necessarily that this is I'm not telling you to go out and play System 40 An OTB for our in time before last and always bet up is you lose or oppa's You win. You kind of have to have all these tricks in your arsenal and understand what they're all about. If you watch great players, someone who's very methodical on the only way you get to know them is to kind of see them in the casino more times. Ah, lot of the times is too frequent the casinos and watch other players play. It's a very important thing to Dio. When you're watching other players and you'll see you'll see this type of player. A lot of times with up is you win betters. You'll see them win an awful lot on the streak and then you come back 35 or 45 minutes later. and what did they do? They lost all their chips back. But the person you want to watch for is someone who's a little bit more controlled when they see an opportunity to go ahead and bet they may push it a little bit. And then when things start changing a lot of a lot of times, a great player who can't figure anything out will simply just stop to take what they've won and walked away. Walk away from the table and sit down and take a break and go outside, you know, rethink what they're doing. So that's also a great way. I agree on deposit. Progressive Sesil slots of shops, creeks learning more and patted recognition remain chops to streaks and runs. Yeah, thanks. Thanks, James. I appreciate you off contributing that very much so. There is a lot of things. Let me take this quick sip here. I know I tend to talk a little fast. Sometimes when I talk about gambling, maybe it's the adrenaline rush. I'm not sure. So that is the time before last strategy. So now you have a system 40 opposite time before last time before last, and somebody keeps somebody's trying to get my attention. Perhaps they can't low again. Um Okay, so, um yeah, there's not much I can do if you can't hear, check your computer. I guess I would say when I get you can hear that One of the things that, um, you can look at that again is so we have let me re gather my thoughts. You have time before last opposite time before last and system 40. Okay, so on top of that, if you look at our our our legacy systems, you also want to take a look at S a P. I don't believe I talked about S a p individually, but I've talked about it, uh, collectively with some other folks on our YouTube channel. Okay, so So what does that say? P? It originally originally spoke about it with self adjusting progression is what it stood for now. It probably wasn't the best thing we ever named anything, but at the time, it actually fit. So what? What a self adjusting progression does is it compares ones, twos, threes and fours. And it's trying to determine if all of them or occurring at the expected frequency within the realm of randomness. So what we used to do is use a weighted count. So we would bet one we would count ones this one Tuesday's twos, threes as four and four or Moore's as eight. And then what we could always dio as we progress down through the shoe, we could always see if there was an equal distribution or unexpected distribution of ones twos, threes and fours. Now, it obviously wasn't a perfect way to do it, and you have to have enough sample size for it to actually come through. But it was a good start, and so you could glance the numbers we used to keep a running chart and comparing with ones twos, threes and four. Now what we found was that if you see a lot of one in a rose and two in arose, it was simply better to just simply count them and find out the disparity between them. Okay, when you find the disparity between them, you can go ahead and and then bet that that disparity will actually continue to occur. So in that case, you could use that sap to find disparity in games and make the appropriate bet on each game and again, we found it to be more valuable to go ahead and just simply count the number of one's, count the numbers of twos and count the numbers of threes and then compare and contrast Whatever would happen to be ahead. It was better to bet what was ahead would continue to occur. So if in the game you have, let's say, five to in a rose only to one in a rose and 03 and a rose on the next potential two in a row, for instance, if you had two players and then all of a sudden you're it's time to make the decision to players. You look at your sap chart cheese. I've had five to in a rose 11 in a row and No. Three in a rose. So we found in back around that it's better to bet what has occurred will continue rather than what hasn't occurred. I bet it will continue to bet it will change. So in that case we would bet that instead of betting player again to go to a three in a row, we would bet banker and bet opposite and a lot of times. We were very successful doing that. Now it doesn't work in every game. I mean, but it does. It is a thing to consider when you're looking at a baccarat shell and you've seen this right? You've seen this on tote board. You walk by a tote board and all of a sudden there's a string of twos and they're all twos and you don't see any threes. Maybe see a couple ones in there and maybe you see a couple fours, you know, and couple fives, but no. Three in a rose. Now there's another way to bet that to what we used to do when we use the snap count. And again we still do use the sap count is if it goes to a three in a row player, you actually have two chances to be right on this. You're betting what's called least common. So you would bet that it's going to go opposite because we have all these two in a row is previous to that. But let's say, for instance, you bet player Oh, my goodness. The time you bet it it just went to a three in a row. Well, now, remember that is it what we call to confirm from three in a row. Okay, that's still a three and a potential three orm. Or it could go toe four. So now you have one more bet to make it right. So there are no three in a rose, so that's at least common. So you want to bet that least common will not occur? So now, instead of betting that it will go opposite to Banker, you're gonna bet that the three in a row goes to a four in a row and bet player again. So there's a lot of ways to use those statistics Teoh make the most intelligent bed in the game and try to pick out of bias. So again, that that was the concept of Lee's common and most common. And we can get into that. Yeah, that's true. Thanks a lot, James. Same Same applies to roulette. Yeah, I'm not sure who said that, but yes, there's a lot of truth to that. I think that's Canada box Am. Thanks, Michael. Okay. Legacy system. Okay. Um, yeah. Thanks for contributing to the Chata. Forgive me if I don't look over and see it. I try not to miss it. But on occasion, I dio Okay, so now we were talking about the concept of least common. Now our players of mostly like excuse me, betting against lease common. In other words, if you don't see an event and that event pretentious presents itself as a potential, then you're gonna bet that it's not going to occur. So just like the example I said, if you have a two in a row and there haven't been any three in a row, you have a potential two in a row. But none of the two in a rose have gone to three. You're gonna bet opposite, But again, you have the chance to bet it again. And this is I think a lot of people miss this. If it does by chance, go to a three. But there are foreign arose in the game. You want to bet that that three is going to go toe four. So if you really think about it when you're betting least common events, you have the opportunity to hit it twice. So those air to other a couple more concepts to think about. Let's go ahead and summarize what we're talking about here in our baccarat chats. So we talked about system 40 combining now with opposite time before last. Then we added time before last. Then we talked about the fibrin ACI betting pattern. We talked about the negative Betty betting pattern, and now we talked about the S A P or self adjusting progression score. Actually, we really call it event count now, which is comparing ones to two's two's two threes, threes, the four and the overall scheme of the game. The other thing to review is we found it more valuable if we just simply keep a running count. Not a balanced count, because within the framework of 72 hands, the sample isn't big enough for to become balance. So you may have to. Ford arose that start okay, and there's no one in arose, so consequently, you still have to let the game evolved. But it's better just to keep a running count of the events in the sap count and just look at the straight numbers. Whatever is ahead, bet that it will stay ahead. Then we took a look. At the least, we talked about the least common statistic. At least common gives you two opportunities, usually to bet against it. You wanna bet against lease? Common. So if you have all to in a Rose and No. Three in arose, when that next potential two in a row comes up, you wanna bet that it's going to go opposite? If it does, repeat goes to, say, a player three in a row that still called a potential three or more in a row. So instead of betting it will stay at three in a row, bet it will go toe a four in a row. There's a great rule that that comes along with baccarat. I think maybe many of you have played it. I learned this or either learn it the hard way is Don't bet what you haven't seen, and that's a good thing to keep in mind. If you're considering making a bet in baccarat, always bet what has occurred or what you have seen. If you haven't seen any three and a rose in back ra, it's probably not a good idea. Bet that you're going to see a three in a row now. Of course, there's a lot of things that there's a lot of other statistics to look at, but at the highest level. And that's what we're talking about. First is don't bet what you haven't seen, and I'm sure a lot of our players we'll do that. Okay, so I think that will wrap it up now. And I'll say tomorrow night. Just as a reminder. We have the five d session you can sign up. It's free to pretty much everyone sign up. We're gonna have the great catches, one speaking and with some guests chatting when he needs a little bit of a breather, that's tomorrow night. 8 p.m. Eastern time on beat the casino. You can sign up at B two Casino and I I'll put the link below, and I think I put it in last night's session. We have Ah, it's limited to 100. And honestly, I think I have 88 signed up now said there's a few more spots open. If you want to try to grab him yet, tomorrow night's gonna be great. We're gonna go through it hand by hand. Worse comes to worse. I will record it, and it will become available to the public. Also to you. Congar ahead at be the casino and grab the free five D manual from us and it goes more into it. Utilizes the sap features of ah, of what we're talking about. Explains it a little bit more in detail and what to look for in disparity. So you go ahead and grab that Free is a gift, Teoh all our players. So in any event, I want to thank you for ah chime in in tonight. We're gonna go ahead and do the live seven of them are so hopefully ah, lot of your common. And then we'll pick it up again. Live on Tuesday night here with our nightly baccarat and blackjack talk talking about some more legacy systems, Some of the more esoteric ones, I think. I think you'll find it very interesting. So until next time, this is Keith signing off from beat to casino. And thanks for watching