The Budget Breakdown - Episode 7

In this episode, Mark Morton reflects on the unusual pre-budget announcement made by the Chancellor and the growing speculation surrounding the Autumn Budget 2025. With a mix of humour and insight, Mark explores the political messaging, potential tax rises, and the implications of shifting National Insurance and income tax. He questions the strategy behind the early statement and what it signals for the future of fiscal policy.

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Transcript

Hello, it's Mark Morton here.

And welcome to part of this, I'm sure, thrilling set of podcasts on the lead up to the budget and the chaos, possibly which is preceding it.

Lots of speculation, as we've already established, driven by the Treasury stroke government and very strange event that occurred on the fourth of November.

I was sitting eating my breakfast and it starts flashing up.

The Chancellor's going to hold a statement at ten past eight this morning.

And you think this feels a little bit emergency budget is a bit too strong, but a bit like an emergency statement or this is most unusual.

What is the Chancellor doing standing up at ten past eight?

And what I proceeded to listen to was twenty minutes of her saying, it's bad.

It's really bad.

It's worse than we thought.

It's not our fault.

It's a consequence of the previous government and blah, blah, blah.

And it was interesting that the Chancellor spoke about the three things that the British people want.

One is to reduce NHS waiting lists.

Apparently.

The second is to cut debt.

I'm sure all British families sit around the dining table in the evening and discuss the parlous position of the public finances.

And the other issue was to address the cost of living.

There was a number of mentions of inflation.

I would suggest increasing employers NI has stoked inflation as opposed to calm it.

So it was a very odd statement with no specific details.

And when the question and answer session took place at the end with the various political correspondents, of course, people like Robert Peston and so on.

So what you've just basically said is because you said everybody's going to have to contribute to help all of this.

Taxes are going up and you're breaking your manifesto pledges.

I'm not here to speculate on what will be announced on the twenty sixth of November.

You've not calmed the speculation by what you just said.

So it appeared quite clear from what was and wasn't said that there will be tax rises in the coming budget.

Of course, what you've done is add to this fear, stroke, speculation, stroke, whatever, by being completely non-specific.

And of course, I think some people would question whether they are the three main things that the British public actually want addressed ultimately.

So it was, I can't recall in my career, I've seen announcements in the pandemic and so on, which was different times.

I can't recall.

I have ever seen a Chancellor stand up three weeks before their own budget and seek to justify what they're going to do, even though they've not told you what they're going to do three weeks ahead of time.

I'd love to know which spin doctor thought this was a good idea.

Very odd, but I think fairly clearly as we get closer and closer to the budget, the taxes are going to go up.

There's been some discussion about putting tax rates up for everybody and just cure it by saying basic rates going up a.

Can you imagine the headlines if for the first time in fifty years, basic rate goes up?

That will be on the front page of every newspaper.

And I would question whether there would be much public sympathy for that.

There is some suggestion, because obviously we've had nigh on landlords that I've talked about in earlier series of these.

One of the close advisers to the Chancellor, a guy called Torsten Bell, he's come with a think tank background, whatever that means.

And one of his cunning plans is to reduce National Insurance contributions by, for example, two percent, but then put up rates of tax by two percent.

And in that way, you don't have to levy any on dividends on landlords, for example, because you've just increased their income tax liability anyway.

The danger with that is unintended Did or maybe intended consequences.

If you do that, then working people in inverted commas possibly don't notice too much.

What you would drag in is people like landlords, but also some OAPs of course, into that increased phenomenon.

So it will be interesting to see what route and how much they think they want and so on and so forth.

I just do wonder if this will be the Chancellor's second and last budget though, because credibility, when you come back in budget one and say we're raising taxes at a one off, we won't do it again only a year later, partly through your own policies.

To have to come and do it again does seem a little bit, well, strange politically, let's say.

But anyway, won't be the last of the strange events over the next couple of years.

I suspect we'll keep an eye on what else transpires up to the budget, but I think fairly clearly there will be a lack of detail, but more and more spin.

Okay, take care everybody, and we'll we'll see what happens on the twenty sixth of November.

📄 Short Description

In this episode, Mark Morton reflects on the unusual pre-budget announcement made by the Chancellor and the growing speculation surrounding the Autumn Budget 2025. With a mix of humour and insight, Mark explores the political messaging, potential tax rises, and the implications of shifting National Insurance and income tax. He questions the strategy behind the early statement and what it signals for the future of fiscal policy.

🔖 Tags

AutumnBudget2025, UK tax policy, National Insurance, income tax changes, Chancellor statement, public finances, cost of living, inflation, manifesto pledges, political spin, Mercia

🔊 Audiogram Excerpt

Here’s a compelling section to use for your audiogram:

“I can't recall in my career ever seeing a Chancellor stand up three weeks before their own budget and seek to justify what they're going to do—even though they've not told you what they're going to do. I'd love to know which spin doctor thought this was a good idea.”

This excerpt is:

• Directly from the transcript
• Highlights the unusual nature of the pre-budget announcement
• Teases political intrigue and uncertainty