{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":0.0,"endTime":2.07,"body":"He was thinking about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":0.0,"endTime":2.07,"body":"trying something for the season"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2.07,"endTime":2.61,"body":"for opening."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2.85,"endTime":5.49,"body":"I'm glad you have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2.85,"endTime":5.49,"body":"idea because I have no freaking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":5.49,"endTime":6.63,"body":"idea what we're doing here."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":7.08,"endTime":8.73,"body":"Well, you know, when the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":7.08,"endTime":8.73,"body":"baseball players are walking up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":8.73,"endTime":11.49,"body":"to the plate, you're a big"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":8.73,"endTime":11.49,"body":"baseball fan, right? So yeah, so"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":11.49,"endTime":14.61,"body":"they walk up and sometimes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":11.49,"endTime":14.61,"body":"they'll play some song that the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":14.64,"endTime":15.6,"body":"batter has chosen."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":15.69,"endTime":18.06,"body":"Oh, dude, it's a walk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":15.69,"endTime":18.06,"body":"up song. Absolutely."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":18.12,"endTime":20.85,"body":"Okay, excellent. walk up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":18.12,"endTime":20.85,"body":"song. I thought that we could do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":20.85,"endTime":23.22,"body":"that to introduce us for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":20.85,"endTime":23.22,"body":"season. What do you think?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":23.34,"endTime":24.48,"body":"I love it. Okay,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":24.54,"endTime":27.6,"body":"what song would you pick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":24.54,"endTime":27.6,"body":"for your walk up song?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.72,"endTime":29.67,"body":"I gotta tell you I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.72,"endTime":29.67,"body":"tempted to pick something by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":29.67,"endTime":34.23,"body":"Olivia Newton John. Just because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":29.67,"endTime":34.23,"body":"I was in love with her for so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":34.23,"endTime":34.8,"body":"long."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":34.83,"endTime":36.57,"body":"You're Hopelessly Devoted"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":34.83,"endTime":36.57,"body":"to her."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":36.87,"endTime":40.92,"body":"Okay, I'm gonna cut"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":36.87,"endTime":40.92,"body":"back. Do I have to pick just one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":40.95,"endTime":44.49,"body":"because they're like a ton I can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":40.95,"endTime":44.49,"body":"pick I'm going to go old school"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":44.55,"endTime":49.68,"body":"like AC DC. Thunderstruck"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":44.55,"endTime":49.68,"body":"excellent AC DC is from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":49.68,"endTime":52.41,"body":"Australia and Olivia Newton"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":49.68,"endTime":52.41,"body":"John's from Australia. See we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":52.41,"endTime":53.67,"body":"got a theme for the site."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":53.699,"endTime":56.009,"body":"Okay, nice. And I'm sure"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":53.699,"endTime":56.009,"body":"he collaborated on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.48,"endTime":62.73,"body":"the wiggles. The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.48,"endTime":62.73,"body":"Wiggles for my walk up sock to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.3,"endTime":70.38,"body":"jagged, jagged Big Red. Travel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.3,"endTime":70.38,"body":"Marin will travel? No, no, stay"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":70.38,"endTime":72.45,"body":"on task. Thunderstrike. Alright,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":70.38,"endTime":72.45,"body":"so"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":72.51,"endTime":74.34,"body":"this would"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":72.51,"endTime":74.34,"body":"be your walk up."},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":76.23,"endTime":80.7,"body":"Friends and fans standing of six"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":76.23,"endTime":80.7,"body":"feet zero inches 180 pounds of"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":80.7,"endTime":84.54,"body":"raw muscle. Haley from the Mile"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":80.7,"endTime":84.54,"body":"High City of Denver, Colorado."},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":84.9,"endTime":87.84,"body":"As a dedicated runner and"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":84.9,"endTime":87.84,"body":"trumpet player and longtime"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":87.84,"endTime":90.75,"body":"faculty member at the University"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":87.84,"endTime":90.75,"body":"of North Carolina Chapel Hill."},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":91.05,"endTime":100.41,"body":"Please welcome wanted to co host"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":91.05,"endTime":100.41,"body":"Patrick. What do you think?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.47,"endTime":103.98,"body":"Oh, dude, I made a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.47,"endTime":103.98,"body":"career error in not going into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":103.98,"endTime":107.22,"body":"baseball. Okay, what's your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":103.98,"endTime":107.22,"body":"walkup song?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":107.25,"endTime":109.62,"body":"I probably go with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":107.25,"endTime":109.62,"body":"something like one of my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":109.62,"endTime":112.41,"body":"favorite songs is take the power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":109.62,"endTime":112.41,"body":"back but Rage Against the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":112.41,"endTime":114.33,"body":"Machine. I think in the end, I'd"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":112.41,"endTime":114.33,"body":"probably go with that one."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":114.39,"endTime":119.52,"body":"Okay, do you not know I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":114.39,"endTime":119.52,"body":"this is a judge free zone. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":119.52,"endTime":123.63,"body":"when you could have chosen from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":119.52,"endTime":123.63,"body":"Metallica or Led Zeppelin"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":123.87,"endTime":126.03,"body":"or Olivia Newton John, pay"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":123.87,"endTime":126.03,"body":"back off"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":132.3,"endTime":134.49,"body":"Okay, all right. Let's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":132.3,"endTime":134.49,"body":"give that one a go."},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":137.46,"endTime":140.64,"body":"Next,"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":137.46,"endTime":140.64,"body":"formerly five feet nine inches,"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":140.94,"endTime":146.31,"body":"weighing in at 7938 grams. Born"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":140.94,"endTime":146.31,"body":"and raised in the Emerald City,"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":146.31,"endTime":150.0,"body":"Seattle, Washington. He's an"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":146.31,"endTime":150.0,"body":"Aries. He's half Transylvanian,"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":150.3,"endTime":153.51,"body":"raised by a single dad and let"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":150.3,"endTime":153.51,"body":"him watch five hours of TV on"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":153.51,"endTime":156.45,"body":"school days. He's a longtime"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":153.51,"endTime":156.45,"body":"faculty member at the University"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":156.45,"endTime":160.86,"body":"of Maryland. Please welcome your"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":156.45,"endTime":160.86,"body":"other Quanah to co host Craig"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":160.86,"endTime":162.48,"body":"Han ha"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":167.49,"endTime":168.63,"body":"ah, what do you think?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":168.66,"endTime":171.75,"body":"I think that had you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":168.66,"endTime":171.75,"body":"chosen big red car by the way"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.75,"endTime":175.92,"body":"those you wouldn't have had to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.75,"endTime":175.92,"body":"bleep out a word. Two minutes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":175.95,"endTime":177.3,"body":"into our first episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":177.81,"endTime":180.09,"body":"I think the wiggles go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":177.81,"endTime":180.09,"body":"blue and a couple of episodes."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":181.44,"endTime":183.3,"body":"Dark Side of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":181.44,"endTime":183.3,"body":"wiggles."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":184.68,"endTime":186.93,"body":"Maybe we should just have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":184.68,"endTime":186.93,"body":"taped to the theme music again."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":187.08,"endTime":188.88,"body":"Oh Can Tate help us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":187.08,"endTime":188.88,"body":"out?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":189.0,"endTime":191.28,"body":"Let's ask him. Tate What"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":189.0,"endTime":191.28,"body":"do you think can you help us out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":191.28,"endTime":191.97,"body":"with the music"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":192.06,"endTime":195.21,"body":"you got a gentleman"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":192.06,"endTime":195.21,"body":"Holy Cow I guess he's on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":195.21,"endTime":196.38,"body":"other side of puberty"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":202.14,"endTime":205.38,"body":"Welcome, my name is Patrick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":202.14,"endTime":205.38,"body":"Curran and along with my far"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":205.38,"endTime":209.01,"body":"from ordinary least square"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":205.38,"endTime":209.01,"body":"friend Greg Hancock, we make up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":209.01,"endTime":212.01,"body":"quantities. We are a podcast"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":209.01,"endTime":212.01,"body":"dedicated to all things"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":212.01,"endTime":215.01,"body":"quantitative ranging from the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":212.01,"endTime":215.01,"body":"irrelevant to the completely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":215.01,"endTime":218.58,"body":"irrelevant. In our opening"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":215.01,"endTime":218.58,"body":"episode two season four, Greg"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.58,"endTime":222.06,"body":"and I delve into ordinary least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.58,"endTime":222.06,"body":"squares estimation, where it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":222.06,"endTime":225.42,"body":"came from what it attempts to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":222.06,"endTime":225.42,"body":"achieve and where it can take us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":225.42,"endTime":229.62,"body":"from here along the way. We also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":225.42,"endTime":229.62,"body":"discuss Golden Retrievers who"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":229.62,"endTime":234.09,"body":"are neither gold nor retrieve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":229.62,"endTime":234.09,"body":"Olivia Newton John some calling"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":234.09,"endTime":238.77,"body":"out our own work. The meat"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":234.09,"endTime":238.77,"body":"sweats. You should know being"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":238.77,"endTime":243.42,"body":"intolerably self righteous,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":238.77,"endTime":243.42,"body":"losing your camel saying ham and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":243.42,"endTime":249.57,"body":"French Calvin bull Frank finding"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":243.42,"endTime":249.57,"body":"Gauss corpse crudely describing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":249.57,"endTime":253.77,"body":"regression and sexy Hulk. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":249.57,"endTime":253.77,"body":"hope you enjoy this week's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":253.77,"endTime":254.31,"body":"episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":255.81,"endTime":257.49,"body":"Welcome back season four."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":258.72,"endTime":261.72,"body":"Do to take 30 in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":258.72,"endTime":261.72,"body":"morning. We don't need that. No."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":261.72,"endTime":263.85,"body":"Whoo. Not now. Not ever."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":264.78,"endTime":267.27,"body":"All right. Well, can you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":264.78,"endTime":267.27,"body":"quietly tell us Did you have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":267.27,"endTime":267.72,"body":"good summer"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":267.75,"endTime":271.32,"body":"I had a great summer,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":267.75,"endTime":271.32,"body":"took some trips hung out on my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":271.32,"endTime":276.0,"body":"brother's back deck and Denver"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":271.32,"endTime":276.0,"body":"ice went to LA with teenagers to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":276.0,"endTime":281.91,"body":"visit colleges who a low of 68"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":276.0,"endTime":281.91,"body":"and a high of 72 and I stepped"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":281.91,"endTime":285.18,"body":"off the aircraft and Raleigh and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":281.91,"endTime":285.18,"body":"was hit in the face with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.18,"endTime":288.72,"body":"humidity and I turned and tried"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.18,"endTime":288.72,"body":"to fight my way back when we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":288.72,"endTime":290.73,"body":"took the plane and they just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":288.72,"endTime":290.73,"body":"shoved me out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":296.94,"endTime":300.93,"body":"I don't think so. took a road"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":296.94,"endTime":300.93,"body":"trip up to see you You You did"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":300.96,"endTime":305.64,"body":"and that was great fun. Greg has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":300.96,"endTime":305.64,"body":"a dog named Gus. What kind of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":305.64,"endTime":307.14,"body":"dog is Gus Gus"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":307.14,"endTime":310.41,"body":"is called an English cream"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":307.14,"endTime":310.41,"body":"golden retriever, which means"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":310.41,"endTime":313.68,"body":"he's not golden at all. He's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":310.41,"endTime":313.68,"body":"white. And for the record, he"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":313.68,"endTime":315.42,"body":"actually doesn't retrieve"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":313.68,"endTime":315.42,"body":"either."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.45,"endTime":320.43,"body":"His Latin name is legis"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.45,"endTime":320.43,"body":"Lucas, because evidently his"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":320.43,"endTime":325.29,"body":"reason for living is to lick my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":320.43,"endTime":325.29,"body":"legs, specifically out of a room"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":325.29,"endTime":331.89,"body":"full of bare legs. Mine get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":325.29,"endTime":331.89,"body":"licked. Gus is adorable. And he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":331.89,"endTime":335.67,"body":"has an entire basket of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":331.89,"endTime":335.67,"body":"little stuffed animals one by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.67,"endTime":339.87,"body":"one throughout the day, he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.67,"endTime":339.87,"body":"brings them outside in the front"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":339.87,"endTime":345.12,"body":"yard and leaves them and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":339.87,"endTime":345.12,"body":"pulled up in like some crop"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":345.12,"endTime":351.03,"body":"circle out front door near drove"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":345.12,"endTime":351.03,"body":"off. I mean, it's about the best"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":351.03,"endTime":355.29,"body":"security system you can have."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":351.03,"endTime":355.29,"body":"Because clearly a psychotic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":355.29,"endTime":360.36,"body":"family lives in the house with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":355.29,"endTime":360.36,"body":"the crop circle of stuffies. How"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":360.36,"endTime":361.47,"body":"about you? How was your summer?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":361.8,"endTime":363.96,"body":"Well, I think you hit the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":361.8,"endTime":363.96,"body":"nail on the head with the trips."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":363.96,"endTime":366.24,"body":"I didn't go out to California,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":363.96,"endTime":366.24,"body":"but the college trips are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":366.24,"endTime":369.33,"body":"starting to be a thing, right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":366.24,"endTime":369.33,"body":"You have two kids who are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":369.36,"endTime":372.18,"body":"seniors this year in high"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":369.36,"endTime":372.18,"body":"school, I have someone who's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":372.18,"endTime":376.05,"body":"senior in high school. So life"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":372.18,"endTime":376.05,"body":"is consumed with all things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":376.05,"endTime":379.17,"body":"college. And frankly, I don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":376.05,"endTime":379.17,"body":"remember any of that for myself."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":379.2,"endTime":381.99,"body":"I think I just remember"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":379.2,"endTime":381.99,"body":"submitting one or two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":381.99,"endTime":386.01,"body":"applications. And that was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":381.99,"endTime":386.01,"body":"pretty much it. But doing it we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":386.01,"endTime":387.66,"body":"are as are you obviously"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":387.69,"endTime":389.94,"body":"and your son Quinn"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":387.69,"endTime":389.94,"body":"helped me with some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.94,"endTime":393.51,"body":"entertainment value because he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.94,"endTime":393.51,"body":"was working on his essay at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":393.51,"endTime":397.59,"body":"dining room table. I took a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":393.51,"endTime":397.59,"body":"picture on my phone and texted"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":397.59,"endTime":402.0,"body":"it to my wife and said Quinn is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":397.59,"endTime":402.0,"body":"almost done with his college"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":402.0,"endTime":406.47,"body":"essays. When my two kids don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":402.0,"endTime":406.47,"body":"even know where they're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":406.47,"endTime":411.18,"body":"apply yet. 10 minutes later, one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":406.47,"endTime":411.18,"body":"of my kids texted me back and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":411.18,"endTime":417.03,"body":"said, What's the deal? So I want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":411.18,"endTime":417.03,"body":"to thank Quinton for that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":417.809,"endTime":421.079,"body":"I'll pass that on. What I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":417.809,"endTime":421.079,"body":"didn't do over the summer is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":421.349,"endTime":422.729,"body":"make any episodes with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":422.729,"endTime":426.719,"body":"you. You know, this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":422.729,"endTime":426.719,"body":"time we didn't even pretend now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":426.749,"endTime":429.779,"body":"you and I both studied"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":426.749,"endTime":429.779,"body":"longitudinal data and we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":429.779,"endTime":434.699,"body":"some passing respect for trends"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":429.779,"endTime":434.699,"body":"in the first summer. How many"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":434.699,"endTime":437.849,"body":"episodes did we do eight. Okay,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":434.699,"endTime":437.849,"body":"so that was like some kind of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":437.849,"endTime":441.899,"body":"summer campers. Yep. Then the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":437.849,"endTime":441.899,"body":"second summer to how many?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":442.32,"endTime":445.32,"body":"Three historical episodes?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":442.32,"endTime":445.32,"body":"Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":445.35,"endTime":451.23,"body":"this past summer? None."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":445.35,"endTime":451.23,"body":"None episodes. And not only"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":451.23,"endTime":456.96,"body":"that, but we sub Condor work to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":451.23,"endTime":456.96,"body":"everyone else by making them"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":456.96,"endTime":462.96,"body":"make the memes. There were some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":456.96,"endTime":462.96,"body":"funny ass memes submitted"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":462.989,"endTime":466.919,"body":"hilarious and clearly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":462.989,"endTime":466.919,"body":"people have too much free time."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":467.759,"endTime":470.129,"body":"Because we were getting like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":467.759,"endTime":470.129,"body":"hundreds of submissions."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":471.69,"endTime":474.36,"body":"You sent out what some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":471.69,"endTime":474.36,"body":"kind of spiral binder or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":474.36,"endTime":474.9,"body":"something?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":474.93,"endTime":478.47,"body":"Yeah, right. each week's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":474.93,"endTime":478.47,"body":"winner got a quantitative spiral"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":478.47,"endTime":482.25,"body":"binder. Now we have a number of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":478.47,"endTime":482.25,"body":"winners throughout and so we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":482.25,"endTime":485.46,"body":"decided to pick a grand prize"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":482.25,"endTime":485.46,"body":"winner from among those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":485.49,"endTime":487.89,"body":"Do you still have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":485.49,"endTime":487.89,"body":"printer at home? I do have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":487.89,"endTime":491.01,"body":"print day you're going to print"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":487.89,"endTime":491.01,"body":"out each of the memes. Okay, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":491.01,"endTime":494.94,"body":"want you to spread them out on a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":491.01,"endTime":494.94,"body":"grid in the front lawn. I was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":494.94,"endTime":499.17,"body":"traveling in Central America, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":494.94,"endTime":499.17,"body":"went into a bar there was a big"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":499.17,"endTime":503.16,"body":"crowd in the back there was a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":499.17,"endTime":503.16,"body":"grid painted on the floor."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":503.19,"endTime":507.51,"body":"People were frantically betting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":503.19,"endTime":507.51,"body":"and exchanging monies they blew"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":507.51,"endTime":512.01,"body":"a whistle and let a chicken go."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":507.51,"endTime":512.01,"body":"And everybody had bought a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":512.01,"endTime":517.17,"body":"square. The square that the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":512.01,"endTime":517.17,"body":"chicken pooped in is the person"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":517.17,"endTime":524.25,"body":"who won. And I lost $20 You were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":517.17,"endTime":524.25,"body":"going to put these out on a grid"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":524.28,"endTime":528.45,"body":"in your front lawn. Okay, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":524.28,"endTime":528.45,"body":"the one that Gus drops his"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":528.45,"endTime":532.05,"body":"stuffy on is going to be the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":528.45,"endTime":532.05,"body":"winner. We're going to pause"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":532.05,"endTime":536.04,"body":"recording and I want you to go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":532.05,"endTime":536.04,"body":"do this right now. Okay, we will"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":536.04,"endTime":537.51,"body":"come back when we have a winner"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":537.57,"endTime":538.53,"body":"All right"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":537.57,"endTime":538.53,"body":"deal"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":544.65,"endTime":548.79,"body":"you know, my friend that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":544.65,"endTime":548.79,"body":"was no small task. I put each of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":548.79,"endTime":551.97,"body":"the images in an envelope so"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":548.79,"endTime":551.97,"body":"that I did not know what was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":551.97,"endTime":555.27,"body":"what right this is that make"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":551.97,"endTime":555.27,"body":"single blind, double blind. So I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":555.27,"endTime":557.31,"body":"put them around the yard. I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":555.27,"endTime":557.31,"body":"didn't do a grid, but I spread"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":557.31,"endTime":560.43,"body":"them around the yard and then I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":557.31,"endTime":560.43,"body":"let Gus out. And what did he do?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":560.55,"endTime":564.36,"body":"He just flopped over on his"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":560.55,"endTime":564.36,"body":"side. He did not care at all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":564.54,"endTime":567.6,"body":"about what was going on. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":564.54,"endTime":567.6,"body":"eventually I sort of got him up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":567.6,"endTime":571.41,"body":"and around and he did in fact"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":567.6,"endTime":571.41,"body":"drop his stuffie outstanding."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":571.47,"endTime":574.65,"body":"Which one was it was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":571.47,"endTime":574.65,"body":"his moose stuffy? Okay, when I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":574.65,"endTime":578.52,"body":"said Which one was it? I was a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":574.65,"endTime":578.52,"body":"little less interested in which"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":580.11,"endTime":582.42,"body":"I was more interested."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":582.75,"endTime":585.09,"body":"It's the moose. The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":582.75,"endTime":585.09,"body":"problem was he dropped it right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":585.09,"endTime":588.21,"body":"between two of the envelopes."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":588.54,"endTime":591.12,"body":"Okay, so fine. So you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":588.54,"endTime":591.12,"body":"have two envelopes. I mean"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":591.12,"endTime":595.98,"body":"to open the first one,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":591.12,"endTime":595.98,"body":"okay. This is so exciting. It's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":595.98,"endTime":596.67,"body":"dramatic."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":596.7,"endTime":599.91,"body":"Okay, hold it up so I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":596.7,"endTime":599.91,"body":"can see it do is that a picture"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":599.91,"endTime":601.14,"body":"of By leg."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":601.26,"endTime":603.57,"body":"Yep, I put a picture of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":601.26,"endTime":603.57,"body":"your leg in there. Okay,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":603.63,"endTime":606.36,"body":"obviously Gus even though he"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":603.63,"endTime":606.36,"body":"couldn't see it through the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":606.36,"endTime":608.67,"body":"envelope, he clearly gravitated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":606.36,"endTime":608.67,"body":"toward it. Do you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":608.67,"endTime":612.57,"body":"mind if I ask just more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":608.67,"endTime":612.57,"body":"broadly? How do you have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":612.57,"endTime":614.01,"body":"picture of my leg?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":614.1,"endTime":617.55,"body":"And that's a longer story."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":614.1,"endTime":617.55,"body":"Okay. All right. So let's take a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":617.55,"endTime":620.55,"body":"look at the real winner in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":617.55,"endTime":620.55,"body":"other envelope. Are you ready?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":620.55,"endTime":623.58,"body":"Wait, I don't when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":620.55,"endTime":623.58,"body":"you've got one."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":624.42,"endTime":628.2,"body":"Congratulations. It's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":624.42,"endTime":628.2,"body":"major award."},{"speaker":"Movie Clip","startTime":628.0,"endTime":632.83,"body":"Well of course it's"},{"speaker":"Movie Clip","startTime":628.0,"endTime":632.83,"body":"a lamp you nincompoop. But it's"},{"speaker":"Movie Clip","startTime":632.83,"endTime":637.9,"body":"a major award. I won it. Damn"},{"speaker":"Movie Clip","startTime":632.83,"endTime":637.9,"body":"hell, how you say you won it? I"},{"speaker":"Movie Clip","startTime":637.9,"endTime":640.15,"body":"have mind powers, mind powers."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":643.0,"endTime":645.28,"body":"The real winner is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":645.34,"endTime":648.04,"body":"I can't see what it is."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":645.34,"endTime":648.04,"body":"Describe it to me. I see the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":648.04,"endTime":649.39,"body":"name Michael Matta."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":649.42,"endTime":651.46,"body":"Yep. Michael. Matta. He"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":649.42,"endTime":651.46,"body":"had one of the first memes of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":651.46,"endTime":654.1,"body":"the summer the one about when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":651.46,"endTime":654.1,"body":"you should or should not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":654.1,"endTime":655.39,"body":"dichotomize a variable."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.439,"endTime":656.489,"body":"And what was the image?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.439,"endTime":656.489,"body":"I"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":656.49,"endTime":658.11,"body":"forget? It"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":656.49,"endTime":658.11,"body":"was a pie chart."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":658.17,"endTime":662.07,"body":"Oh, that's right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":658.17,"endTime":662.07,"body":"Right. Well, congratulations,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":662.07,"endTime":664.95,"body":"Michael, does he want a picture"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":662.07,"endTime":664.95,"body":"of my leg bend is that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":666.18,"endTime":668.4,"body":"I will give him the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":666.18,"endTime":668.4,"body":"option. Okay, I'll give him the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":668.4,"endTime":672.03,"body":"option of either a picture of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":668.4,"endTime":672.03,"body":"your leg or maybe the quantity"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":672.03,"endTime":673.71,"body":"of swag of his choosing. How"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":672.03,"endTime":673.71,"body":"about that?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":673.74,"endTime":677.07,"body":"Nice. Yeah. Well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":673.74,"endTime":677.07,"body":"congratulations, Michael. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":677.07,"endTime":680.61,"body":"thank you to everyone for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":677.07,"endTime":680.61,"body":"squandering your valuable time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":680.61,"endTime":682.44,"body":"on this stuff as we had a ball"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":680.61,"endTime":682.44,"body":"with"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":682.44,"endTime":684.27,"body":"that. Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":682.44,"endTime":684.27,"body":"it was so much fun. Thanks,"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":684.27,"endTime":685.44,"body":"everybody. All right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":685.469,"endTime":688.799,"body":"Now, let's get back to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":685.469,"endTime":688.799,"body":"work. So dude, I drove up. I did"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":688.799,"endTime":691.829,"body":"not have my red Camaro. No,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":688.799,"endTime":691.829,"body":"that's right. What was it two or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":691.829,"endTime":695.249,"body":"three years ago, I rented a car"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":691.829,"endTime":695.249,"body":"for reasons I won't bore you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":695.249,"endTime":699.239,"body":"with the car that I selected was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":695.249,"endTime":699.239,"body":"not there. And they gave me a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":699.239,"endTime":703.589,"body":"red Camaro. And I was never"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":699.239,"endTime":703.589,"body":"going to come back. Although I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":703.589,"endTime":708.629,"body":"drove the red Camaro. And then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":703.589,"endTime":708.629,"body":"what five miles an hour on i 95."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":708.629,"endTime":713.639,"body":"For like 100 No red Camaro, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":708.629,"endTime":713.639,"body":"I went up. We hung out in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":713.639,"endTime":716.399,"body":"backyard. We hung out with your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":713.639,"endTime":716.399,"body":"family. You took me to meet"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":716.399,"endTime":720.299,"body":"fest? Yes. In downtown"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":716.399,"endTime":720.299,"body":"Baltimore. At the Brazilian"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.299,"endTime":725.609,"body":"steakhouse. Yep. And I got the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.299,"endTime":725.609,"body":"meat sweats. And I was so proud"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":725.609,"endTime":728.939,"body":"of your son. Oh my god. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":725.609,"endTime":728.939,"body":"anybody has been to this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":728.939,"endTime":731.999,"body":"restaurant, what's it called"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":728.939,"endTime":731.999,"body":"FOMO. To show these men and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":731.999,"endTime":736.769,"body":"women walk around with grilled"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":731.999,"endTime":736.769,"body":"meat on spikes and cut it for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":736.769,"endTime":739.739,"body":"you at your table. You have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":736.769,"endTime":739.739,"body":"little card in front of you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":739.769,"endTime":743.369,"body":"that's green or red. I never"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":739.769,"endTime":743.369,"body":"turned mine over from green. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":743.369,"endTime":748.829,"body":"just love green. Greg's son"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":743.369,"endTime":748.829,"body":"Quinn sat down, and we all went"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":748.829,"endTime":753.119,"body":"to the salad bar table and came"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":748.829,"endTime":753.119,"body":"back and Quinn hadn't moved. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":753.119,"endTime":758.729,"body":"he sat there with a blank plate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":753.119,"endTime":758.729,"body":"and over 90 minutes. All he ate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":758.759,"endTime":759.509,"body":"was meat."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":759.69,"endTime":763.08,"body":"It was amazing."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":759.69,"endTime":763.08,"body":"Unbelievable. I mean, this is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":763.08,"endTime":768.21,"body":"kid who sits in his pajamas all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":763.08,"endTime":768.21,"body":"day coding, eating honey nut"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":768.21,"endTime":771.48,"body":"cheerios, that's pretty much it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":768.21,"endTime":771.48,"body":"We have to force food groups on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":771.48,"endTime":775.2,"body":"him. And he shows up at this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":771.48,"endTime":775.2,"body":"restaurant and cleans them out."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":775.2,"endTime":778.2,"body":"I have never seen him eat that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":775.2,"endTime":778.2,"body":"much. It's crazy."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":778.53,"endTime":781.44,"body":"When we were downtown"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":778.53,"endTime":781.44,"body":"on the Inner Harbor, you and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":781.44,"endTime":787.26,"body":"took a walk down memory lane and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":781.44,"endTime":787.26,"body":"sat on the bench where this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":787.26,"endTime":792.27,"body":"entire boondoggle started. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":787.26,"endTime":792.27,"body":"we did not have to scale a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":792.27,"endTime":798.69,"body":"barbed wire top chain link fence"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":792.27,"endTime":798.69,"body":"like the first time. But it was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":798.69,"endTime":802.77,"body":"really fun to sit there and say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":798.69,"endTime":802.77,"body":"Wow, that was a horrible"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":802.77,"endTime":803.4,"body":"decision."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":804.21,"endTime":807.6,"body":"The bench bench it was a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":804.21,"endTime":807.6,"body":"lot of years ago. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.63,"endTime":810.93,"body":"we're moving into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.63,"endTime":810.93,"body":"season four, we got Episode One,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.93,"endTime":814.17,"body":"what do we want to do? We got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.93,"endTime":814.17,"body":"some ideas and knowing you and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":814.17,"endTime":819.18,"body":"me, we won't do half of them."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":814.17,"endTime":819.18,"body":"One of the things that we talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":819.18,"endTime":823.26,"body":"about was doing some more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":819.18,"endTime":823.26,"body":"fundamentals kind of stuff."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":823.35,"endTime":827.67,"body":"People are foolish enough to use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":823.35,"endTime":827.67,"body":"a handful of our episodes in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":827.67,"endTime":831.39,"body":"their teaching. I have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":827.67,"endTime":831.39,"body":"amazing graduate student named"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":831.39,"endTime":835.02,"body":"Chris Strauss. Chris is in their"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":831.39,"endTime":835.02,"body":"last year they're working on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":835.02,"endTime":837.18,"body":"their dissertation and deed,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":835.02,"endTime":837.18,"body":"they're going to propose it in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":837.18,"endTime":839.94,"body":"couple of weeks, they have tea"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":837.18,"endTime":839.94,"body":"aid for me for a number of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":839.94,"endTime":843.54,"body":"classes, they are a gifted"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":839.94,"endTime":843.54,"body":"teacher, in something they use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":843.54,"endTime":849.09,"body":"in their own class is what they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":843.54,"endTime":849.09,"body":"call you should know. And at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":849.09,"endTime":854.91,"body":"end of each week, they send an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":849.09,"endTime":854.91,"body":"email to their class of s YSK."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":855.6,"endTime":859.74,"body":"You should know I have stolen"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":855.6,"endTime":859.74,"body":"this from my own teaching. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":859.74,"endTime":864.36,"body":"out of the lectures out of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":859.74,"endTime":864.36,"body":"readings out of the problem set."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":864.6,"endTime":867.93,"body":"In the last seven days of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":864.6,"endTime":867.93,"body":"everything that we've talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":867.93,"endTime":872.28,"body":"about. This is the that you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":867.93,"endTime":872.28,"body":"should know, Greg and I thought"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":872.31,"endTime":874.89,"body":"we could weave some of that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":872.31,"endTime":874.89,"body":"stuff in here. If you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":874.89,"endTime":878.64,"body":"navigating these waters, whether"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":874.89,"endTime":878.64,"body":"you're quantity or non quantity,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":878.64,"endTime":881.4,"body":"whether you're doing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":878.64,"endTime":881.4,"body":"developmental working"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":881.4,"endTime":884.64,"body":"quantitative methods, or you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":881.4,"endTime":884.64,"body":"a user or a teacher or whatever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":884.64,"endTime":888.57,"body":"it might be. There are a box"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":884.64,"endTime":888.57,"body":"full of things that you should"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":888.57,"endTime":891.69,"body":"just have at your fingertips. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":888.57,"endTime":891.69,"body":"talked about this a season or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":891.69,"endTime":895.38,"body":"two ago, my daughter plays piano"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":891.69,"endTime":895.38,"body":"and she has a professional"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":895.38,"endTime":898.92,"body":"teacher who talks about having"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":895.38,"endTime":898.92,"body":"songs at your fingertips, right"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.95,"endTime":902.4,"body":"and it's a similar kinda thing,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.95,"endTime":902.4,"body":"but we thought that we would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":902.4,"endTime":908.52,"body":"start season one with an s y s k"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":902.4,"endTime":908.52,"body":"on ordinary least squares."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":908.55,"endTime":910.68,"body":"And it's really just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":908.55,"endTime":910.68,"body":"symbolic of how we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":910.68,"endTime":914.55,"body":"devolved, because in season one,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":910.68,"endTime":914.55,"body":"it was, Oh, you just songs at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":914.55,"endTime":919.05,"body":"your fingertips. And now it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":914.55,"endTime":919.05,"body":"like, yeah, it's Believe it or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":919.05,"endTime":921.9,"body":"not, we actually get a ton of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":919.05,"endTime":921.9,"body":"requests, right. Like last year,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":921.9,"endTime":924.93,"body":"we had partial correlation. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":921.9,"endTime":924.93,"body":"we did sampling distributions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":924.93,"endTime":928.17,"body":"and statistical degrees of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":924.93,"endTime":928.17,"body":"freedom and information theory."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.2,"endTime":932.01,"body":"Okay, information. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.2,"endTime":932.01,"body":"made me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":932.01,"endTime":935.28,"body":"do that. That's fine. All"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":932.01,"endTime":935.28,"body":"right. So today, we are going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":935.28,"endTime":937.56,"body":"talk about ordinary least"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":935.28,"endTime":937.56,"body":"squares. Because this is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":937.56,"endTime":940.26,"body":"something that is foundational."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":937.56,"endTime":940.26,"body":"This is like, well, it's like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.26,"endTime":942.99,"body":"the bench that we sat on three"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.26,"endTime":942.99,"body":"and a half hours ago, Patrick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":942.99,"endTime":949.44,"body":"gets wet. Okay, just stop I was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":942.99,"endTime":949.44,"body":"having a moment was lead to you."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":961.47,"endTime":964.32,"body":"My kids are out at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":961.47,"endTime":964.32,"body":"dining room table. And every"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":964.32,"endTime":967.35,"body":"time I come out from recording"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":964.32,"endTime":967.35,"body":"one of these, they look at me"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":967.35,"endTime":973.74,"body":"and say, What is your job? This"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":967.35,"endTime":973.74,"body":"is something you need in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":973.74,"endTime":978.84,"body":"back pocket because it is a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":973.74,"endTime":978.84,"body":"foundation to so much of what we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":978.84,"endTime":982.68,"body":"do and whether it's not exactly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":978.84,"endTime":982.68,"body":"what we ended up using as an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":982.68,"endTime":987.3,"body":"estimator. It is the motivation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":982.68,"endTime":987.3,"body":"for moving to something else. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":987.3,"endTime":992.76,"body":"this could be you should know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":987.3,"endTime":992.76,"body":"episode. This could be a how to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":992.76,"endTime":995.25,"body":"be intolerably righteous"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":992.76,"endTime":995.25,"body":"episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":995.61,"endTime":999.3,"body":"That's you every. Sorry,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":999.33,"endTime":1002.84,"body":"okay, I see that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":999.33,"endTime":1002.84,"body":"Somebody says something and you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1002.84,"endTime":1006.38,"body":"say, you know, that's not quite"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1002.84,"endTime":1006.38,"body":"right, actually, and then go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1006.38,"endTime":1009.44,"body":"into how to be intolerably self"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1006.38,"endTime":1009.44,"body":"righteous. So let's talk about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1009.44,"endTime":1014.9,"body":"that. Because we're a logical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1009.44,"endTime":1014.9,"body":"starting point is the orbits of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1014.9,"endTime":1020.21,"body":"the planets, I can always work"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1014.9,"endTime":1020.21,"body":"in Ptolemaic and Copernican"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1020.24,"endTime":1022.4,"body":"models of the universe. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1022.4,"endTime":1024.38,"body":"take us there get in our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1022.4,"endTime":1024.38,"body":"way back machine,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1024.44,"endTime":1028.94,"body":"this stuff goes back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1024.44,"endTime":1028.94,"body":"2000 years, a lot of where what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1028.94,"endTime":1034.4,"body":"we can think about as curve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1028.94,"endTime":1034.4,"body":"fitting comes from is back where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1034.46,"endTime":1037.52,"body":"there were stars, there was the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1034.46,"endTime":1037.52,"body":"moon, there was the sun. People"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1037.52,"endTime":1040.64,"body":"had figured out north, south,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1037.52,"endTime":1040.64,"body":"east west, but there were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1040.67,"endTime":1045.59,"body":"absolute fundamentals that were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1040.67,"endTime":1045.59,"body":"unknown. And a big one was what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1045.59,"endTime":1048.74,"body":"is the shape of the earth? And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1045.59,"endTime":1048.74,"body":"some people argued it was a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1048.74,"endTime":1052.79,"body":"disk. Some argued it was an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1048.74,"endTime":1052.79,"body":"infinite plane. That kind of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1052.79,"endTime":1055.37,"body":"made sense, right? Because if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1052.79,"endTime":1055.37,"body":"your camel wandered off and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1055.37,"endTime":1059.0,"body":"never came back, well, it just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1055.37,"endTime":1059.0,"body":"Dang, I got to get a new camel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1059.0,"endTime":1066.44,"body":"now. Some argued what was a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1059.0,"endTime":1066.44,"body":"sphere, you had empirical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1066.44,"endTime":1069.68,"body":"observations, you have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1066.44,"endTime":1069.68,"body":"positions of the stars, you knew"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.68,"endTime":1073.1,"body":"what city you were in, you knew"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.68,"endTime":1073.1,"body":"how far the cities were apart,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1073.19,"endTime":1077.0,"body":"you knew where the stars were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1073.19,"endTime":1077.0,"body":"relative to the city. And with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1077.0,"endTime":1081.14,"body":"some very complicated geometry,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1077.0,"endTime":1081.14,"body":"they figured out was the sphere."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1081.44,"endTime":1086.03,"body":"How did they do that? Well, they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1081.44,"endTime":1086.03,"body":"fit a function to observations,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1086.18,"endTime":1090.8,"body":"that the only shape that would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1086.18,"endTime":1090.8,"body":"make sense is a sphere. And it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1090.8,"endTime":1093.26,"body":"like, Alright, guys got it."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1090.8,"endTime":1093.26,"body":"Great. It's a sphere. If we wait"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1093.26,"endTime":1095.87,"body":"long enough, the camera will"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1093.26,"endTime":1095.87,"body":"probably come back. If it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1095.87,"endTime":1099.53,"body":"doesn't stop and start to live"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1095.87,"endTime":1099.53,"body":"somewhere else. Except somebody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1099.53,"endTime":1102.71,"body":"said, Okay, I'm cool. It's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1099.53,"endTime":1102.71,"body":"sphere. How big is it? Ooh, good"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.71,"endTime":1104.9,"body":"question. We got to figure out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.71,"endTime":1104.9,"body":"how big the sphere is. Right. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1104.9,"endTime":1107.9,"body":"then we got now we got a pretty"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1104.9,"endTime":1107.9,"body":"good estimate how big it is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1107.96,"endTime":1111.53,"body":"cool. Hey, notice sun comes up."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1107.96,"endTime":1111.53,"body":"Sun comes down. We seem to be a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1111.53,"endTime":1114.74,"body":"sphere. It seems to be a sphere."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1111.53,"endTime":1114.74,"body":"We seem to be rotating around"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1114.74,"endTime":1118.85,"body":"stuff. The Orbit gets a circle."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1114.74,"endTime":1118.85,"body":"Kepler says, you're all morons."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1118.85,"endTime":1122.3,"body":"It's an ellipse. Well, how do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1118.85,"endTime":1122.3,"body":"you know it's an ellipse? Look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1122.3,"endTime":1127.49,"body":"at the data dude, I fit this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1122.3,"endTime":1127.49,"body":"trajectory to the data. It's all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1127.49,"endTime":1132.38,"body":"curve fitting. Damned if Laplace"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1127.49,"endTime":1132.38,"body":"back in the day right? We did."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1132.38,"endTime":1135.41,"body":"I'm sure we talked about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1132.38,"endTime":1135.41,"body":"laplacian or summer, did we,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1135.44,"endTime":1138.2,"body":"you're better at remembering"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1135.44,"endTime":1138.2,"body":"these things than I am. The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1138.2,"endTime":1141.71,"body":"French were involved. Let's just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1138.2,"endTime":1141.71,"body":"say that's always the French and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1141.74,"endTime":1143.0,"body":"dumb often"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":1143.0,"endTime":1146.63,"body":"laugh. I"},{"speaker":"Baseball Announcer","startTime":1143.0,"endTime":1146.63,"body":"just like glass, okay, you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1146.63,"endTime":1151.13,"body":"just making stuff up. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1146.63,"endTime":1151.13,"body":"traveled in France for several"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1151.13,"endTime":1154.97,"body":"weeks, and all I ate were ham"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1151.13,"endTime":1154.97,"body":"sandwiches, because that was the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1155.0,"endTime":1161.87,"body":"only French word I knew."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1155.0,"endTime":1161.87,"body":"sandwiches on. sandwiches on. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1161.87,"endTime":1165.98,"body":"have observations, they are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1161.87,"endTime":1165.98,"body":"imperfect. It was trying to do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1165.98,"endTime":1170.78,"body":"some kind of curve fitting to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1165.98,"endTime":1170.78,"body":"figure out these massively"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1170.78,"endTime":1174.35,"body":"fundamental things about whether"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1170.78,"endTime":1174.35,"body":"you should wait for your camel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1174.35,"endTime":1179.84,"body":"to come back or get a new camel."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1174.35,"endTime":1179.84,"body":"And that brings up another issue"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1179.84,"endTime":1183.59,"body":"that arises in everyday life."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1179.84,"endTime":1183.59,"body":"And it sounds silly to say but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1183.59,"endTime":1186.35,"body":"it's really important to think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1183.59,"endTime":1186.35,"body":"about in these settings is what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1186.35,"endTime":1189.2,"body":"is best, right? That's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1186.35,"endTime":1189.2,"body":"fundamentally when I think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1189.2,"endTime":1193.46,"body":"estimation is what does it mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1189.2,"endTime":1193.46,"body":"best? How do you best get an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1193.46,"endTime":1196.37,"body":"estimate of the curvature of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1193.46,"endTime":1196.37,"body":"earth? And it's kind of funny"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1196.37,"endTime":1199.1,"body":"because you hear people talk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1196.37,"endTime":1199.1,"body":"about well, what's the best kind"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1199.1,"endTime":1202.76,"body":"of car to get What's the best"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1199.1,"endTime":1202.76,"body":"restaurant to go to? And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1202.76,"endTime":1205.49,"body":"heavens? You and I are dealing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1202.76,"endTime":1205.49,"body":"with this with the kids. What's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1205.49,"endTime":1209.66,"body":"the best college? Every time you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1205.49,"endTime":1209.66,"body":"think about it? It's with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1209.66,"endTime":1213.47,"body":"respect to what right? What do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1209.66,"endTime":1213.47,"body":"you mean the best college, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1213.47,"endTime":1217.13,"body":"could go to Harvard and have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1213.47,"endTime":1217.13,"body":"horrible experience, you could"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1217.13,"endTime":1221.15,"body":"go to Cape Fear Community"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1217.13,"endTime":1221.15,"body":"College and flourish? It all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1221.15,"endTime":1223.49,"body":"depends on how we define best."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1223.52,"endTime":1226.49,"body":"So if you have a set of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1223.52,"endTime":1226.49,"body":"these observations, how would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1226.58,"endTime":1227.51,"body":"Kelvin bowl?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1230.45,"endTime":1233.33,"body":"No, it's all Calvin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1230.45,"endTime":1233.33,"body":"Ball estimation is all Calvin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1233.33,"endTime":1237.8,"body":"Ball. Okay, I am a die hard"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1233.33,"endTime":1237.8,"body":"Calvin and Hobbes fan in Calvin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1237.8,"endTime":1240.35,"body":"and Hobbes is a thing called"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1237.8,"endTime":1240.35,"body":"Calvin Ball, he plays it with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1240.35,"endTime":1244.7,"body":"himself and his stuffed tiger."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1240.35,"endTime":1244.7,"body":"And Calvin Ball is defined by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1244.7,"endTime":1248.18,"body":"rules that you make up as you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1244.7,"endTime":1248.18,"body":"go. And so in the middle of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1248.18,"endTime":1251.21,"body":"Calvin Ball, you make a new"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1248.18,"endTime":1251.21,"body":"rule, and then that becomes rule"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1251.21,"endTime":1254.87,"body":"for Calvin Ball until the next"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1251.21,"endTime":1254.87,"body":"rule is made. I see estimation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1254.87,"endTime":1260.51,"body":"is Calvin Ball, which is we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1254.87,"endTime":1260.51,"body":"a goal in which we have a belief"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1260.51,"endTime":1265.04,"body":"about something that exists. The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1260.51,"endTime":1265.04,"body":"circumference of the Earth, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1265.04,"endTime":1269.27,"body":"have a set of observations that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1265.04,"endTime":1269.27,"body":"we've made over time in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1269.27,"endTime":1272.84,"body":"different places where we want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1269.27,"endTime":1272.84,"body":"to estimate that circumference."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1272.84,"endTime":1276.77,"body":"So we have some population"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1272.84,"endTime":1276.77,"body":"value, we have some sample data."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1276.92,"endTime":1281.21,"body":"And we want to get that and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1276.92,"endTime":1281.21,"body":"here's the best estimate of what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.21,"endTime":1285.44,"body":"that is based on the sample"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.21,"endTime":1285.44,"body":"data. We can set up whatever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.44,"endTime":1288.47,"body":"criteria we would like. That's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.44,"endTime":1288.47,"body":"the Calvin ballroom."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1288.56,"endTime":1290.99,"body":"It absolutely is, right."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1288.56,"endTime":1290.99,"body":"So if you wanted to stand"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1290.99,"endTime":1293.99,"body":"somewhere in the middle of a set"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1290.99,"endTime":1293.99,"body":"of scores, and talk about how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1293.99,"endTime":1297.35,"body":"much variability there is, first"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1293.99,"endTime":1297.35,"body":"of all, Where do I stand in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1297.35,"endTime":1300.32,"body":"middle of this set of scores?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1297.35,"endTime":1300.32,"body":"It's not entirely clear. And in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1300.32,"endTime":1304.46,"body":"part, maybe it depends on how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1300.32,"endTime":1304.46,"body":"you wanted to find the rules for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1304.46,"endTime":1308.18,"body":"variability. So you might want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1304.46,"endTime":1308.18,"body":"to say, where could I stand in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1308.18,"endTime":1311.75,"body":"the middle, and then judge what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1308.18,"endTime":1311.75,"body":"the biggest residual is what the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1311.75,"endTime":1315.59,"body":"biggest deviation is from where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1311.75,"endTime":1315.59,"body":"I'm standing, maybe that will"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1315.59,"endTime":1319.13,"body":"help you to decide where a good"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1315.59,"endTime":1319.13,"body":"place to stand is. So what we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1319.13,"endTime":1323.72,"body":"might say is, variability is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1319.13,"endTime":1323.72,"body":"place where the average"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1323.72,"endTime":1327.5,"body":"residual, the average deviation,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1323.72,"endTime":1327.5,"body":"I don't care whether it's above"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1327.5,"endTime":1331.88,"body":"me or below me, or the average"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1327.5,"endTime":1331.88,"body":"deviation is the smallest that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1331.88,"endTime":1335.57,"body":"simultaneously would accomplish"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1331.88,"endTime":1335.57,"body":"two things define a middle place"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1335.57,"endTime":1338.63,"body":"to stand. And it would also"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1335.57,"endTime":1338.63,"body":"define a measure of variability,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1338.63,"endTime":1341.93,"body":"which would be like an average"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1338.63,"endTime":1341.93,"body":"deviation from that middle that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1341.93,"endTime":1345.14,"body":"did not win. That version of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1341.93,"endTime":1345.14,"body":"Calvin Ball was not the ultimate"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1345.14,"endTime":1345.53,"body":"winner"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1345.56,"endTime":1350.03,"body":"think about two points,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1345.56,"endTime":1350.03,"body":"one that has a residual of plus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1350.03,"endTime":1354.26,"body":"one and one that has a residual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1350.03,"endTime":1354.26,"body":"of minus one. The mean of those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1354.26,"endTime":1357.59,"body":"two residuals is zero. Well"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1354.26,"endTime":1357.59,"body":"done. Now you have a point"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1357.59,"endTime":1363.74,"body":"that's positive 10 and negative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1357.59,"endTime":1363.74,"body":"10. Well done. You got a mean Z"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1363.77,"endTime":1368.18,"body":"row crap. Yeah, we need a new"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1363.77,"endTime":1368.18,"body":"Calvin Ball Roll."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1369.83,"endTime":1371.84,"body":"Yeah, I'll give you some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1369.83,"endTime":1371.84,"body":"got some positive deviations and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1371.84,"endTime":1374.84,"body":"some negative deviations, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1371.84,"endTime":1374.84,"body":"could ignore the sign associated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1374.84,"endTime":1377.63,"body":"with that, which sometimes we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1374.84,"endTime":1377.63,"body":"do, but I will tell you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1377.63,"endTime":1380.93,"body":"mathematically dealing with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1377.63,"endTime":1380.93,"body":"absolute values is a complete"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1380.93,"endTime":1384.05,"body":"pain. And so the other option,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1380.93,"endTime":1384.05,"body":"which we're all familiar with by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1384.05,"endTime":1385.79,"body":"now is, drumroll please."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1390.05,"endTime":1394.37,"body":"We want to avoid the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1390.05,"endTime":1394.37,"body":"plus one minus one plus 10 minus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1394.37,"endTime":1398.42,"body":"10. And we don't want to strip"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1394.37,"endTime":1398.42,"body":"off a negative by looking at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1398.42,"endTime":1403.07,"body":"absolute we can square so now we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1398.42,"endTime":1403.07,"body":"represent the plus one minus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1403.07,"endTime":1407.75,"body":"one, we have one and one the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1403.07,"endTime":1407.75,"body":"plus 10 minus 10. We have 100"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1407.75,"endTime":1413.63,"body":"and 100, who now it represents"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1407.75,"endTime":1413.63,"body":"that distance. But as you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1413.63,"endTime":1419.0,"body":"alluded to working with absolute"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1413.63,"endTime":1419.0,"body":"values are an absolute punch in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1419.0,"endTime":1423.71,"body":"the face for deriving fit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1419.0,"endTime":1423.71,"body":"functions. Squares are not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1423.71,"endTime":1427.97,"body":"because squares take us to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1423.71,"endTime":1427.97,"body":"freshman math, they start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1427.97,"endTime":1432.68,"body":"defining really beautiful"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1427.97,"endTime":1432.68,"body":"parabolas. And we can work with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1432.68,"endTime":1434.27,"body":"really beautiful parabolas."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1434.3,"endTime":1438.05,"body":"So this idea of squaring"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1434.3,"endTime":1438.05,"body":"deviations and using that as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1438.05,"endTime":1440.93,"body":"criterion to me, I remember when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1438.05,"endTime":1440.93,"body":"I first learned this, it sounded"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1440.93,"endTime":1444.02,"body":"kind of lame. It's like, oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1440.93,"endTime":1444.02,"body":"that's why we square it to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1444.02,"endTime":1447.5,"body":"rid of the sign. And the answer"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1444.02,"endTime":1447.5,"body":"is, well, yeah, partly, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1447.53,"endTime":1450.59,"body":"dealing with the square has a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1447.53,"endTime":1450.59,"body":"lot of mathematically beautiful"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1450.59,"endTime":1454.28,"body":"properties. But it also ties to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1450.59,"endTime":1454.28,"body":"other things that we care about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1454.28,"endTime":1457.04,"body":"statistically. Now I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1454.28,"endTime":1457.04,"body":"describing it as one came before"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1457.04,"endTime":1460.01,"body":"the other. But if you think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1457.04,"endTime":1460.01,"body":"about other stuff that we do, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1460.01,"endTime":1463.22,"body":"take moments of distributions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1460.01,"endTime":1463.22,"body":"right first moment, second"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1463.22,"endTime":1465.98,"body":"moment, third moment, fourth"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1463.22,"endTime":1465.98,"body":"moment, which has to do with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1465.98,"endTime":1469.67,"body":"powers associated with the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1465.98,"endTime":1469.67,"body":"deviation so it aligns really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1469.67,"endTime":1474.17,"body":"nicely with those and also"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1469.67,"endTime":1474.17,"body":"squared deviations tied to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1474.17,"endTime":1477.68,"body":"distributions that we know and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1474.17,"endTime":1477.68,"body":"love. The F distribution is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1477.68,"endTime":1481.4,"body":"way to compare variances that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1477.68,"endTime":1481.4,"body":"are based on squared deviations."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1481.4,"endTime":1484.82,"body":"The chi square distribution is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1481.4,"endTime":1484.82,"body":"way to compare not a variance"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1484.82,"endTime":1489.35,"body":"but a sum of squares to some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1484.82,"endTime":1489.35,"body":"known population value. So the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1489.35,"endTime":1492.02,"body":"idea of squaring these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1489.35,"endTime":1492.02,"body":"deviations is something that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1492.02,"endTime":1495.89,"body":"just brings this tremendous"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1492.02,"endTime":1495.89,"body":"harmony of the spheres."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1496.04,"endTime":1497.78,"body":"I saw them open for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1496.04,"endTime":1497.78,"body":"Olivia Newton"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1500.81,"endTime":1504.8,"body":"You better shape up? No."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1509.059,"endTime":1516.289,"body":"So Laplace anticipated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1509.059,"endTime":1516.289,"body":"Calvin Ball like 250 years"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1516.319,"endTime":1521.149,"body":"before, because what Laplace"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1516.319,"endTime":1521.149,"body":"said is, hey, I've got all these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1521.149,"endTime":1525.199,"body":"observations, I've got a thing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1521.149,"endTime":1525.199,"body":"I'm trying to do. This is not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1525.199,"endTime":1529.579,"body":"just Hey, guys, look what I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1525.199,"endTime":1529.579,"body":"found. These are very specific"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1529.579,"endTime":1533.509,"body":"goals. What is the shape? What"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1529.579,"endTime":1533.509,"body":"is the size? What is the orbit?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1533.509,"endTime":1537.559,"body":"Can we predict relative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1533.509,"endTime":1537.559,"body":"positions of one planet against"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1537.559,"endTime":1540.469,"body":"the face of the other planet?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1537.559,"endTime":1540.469,"body":"These are very targeted"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1540.469,"endTime":1544.669,"body":"questions. And he says, Well, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1540.469,"endTime":1544.669,"body":"can minimize the biggest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1544.669,"endTime":1548.809,"body":"residual, we could minimize the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1544.669,"endTime":1548.809,"body":"sum of the signed residual, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1548.809,"endTime":1552.859,"body":"could minimize the average"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1548.809,"endTime":1552.859,"body":"absolute residual each of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1552.859,"endTime":1558.469,"body":"as a Calvin Ball criterium. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1552.859,"endTime":1558.469,"body":"each of these as a form of best"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1558.529,"endTime":1562.639,"body":"where he landed for the reasons"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1558.529,"endTime":1562.639,"body":"that you just described is we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1562.639,"endTime":1567.199,"body":"can minimize the sum of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1562.639,"endTime":1567.199,"body":"squared residuals. Okay, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1567.199,"endTime":1571.309,"body":"let's pick that apart, minimize"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1567.199,"endTime":1571.309,"body":"the sum of the squared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1571.309,"endTime":1575.809,"body":"residuals, least squares, why is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1571.309,"endTime":1575.809,"body":"an ordinary? Well, we'll talk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1575.809,"endTime":1578.119,"body":"about that because it turns out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1575.809,"endTime":1578.119,"body":"there are different variations"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1578.119,"endTime":1583.639,"body":"of that. But that is where the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1578.119,"endTime":1583.639,"body":"term least squares comes from,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1583.849,"endTime":1587.569,"body":"is our criterion that we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1583.849,"endTime":1587.569,"body":"going to use to define what is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1587.569,"endTime":1593.179,"body":"best is they are the values that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1587.569,"endTime":1593.179,"body":"we calculate that results in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1593.179,"endTime":1597.049,"body":"smallest possible sum of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1593.179,"endTime":1597.049,"body":"squared residuals."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1597.08,"endTime":1599.75,"body":"So that means when we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1597.08,"endTime":1599.75,"body":"a univariate case, the sample"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1599.75,"endTime":1604.34,"body":"mean for a set of scores is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1599.75,"endTime":1604.34,"body":"least squares estimator because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1604.34,"endTime":1608.15,"body":"the squared deviations from that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1604.34,"endTime":1608.15,"body":"the sum of squared deviations is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1608.15,"endTime":1610.97,"body":"a minimum. That's the principle"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1608.15,"endTime":1610.97,"body":"of least squares. But now this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1610.97,"endTime":1615.41,"body":"extends well beyond the case of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1610.97,"endTime":1615.41,"body":"well, we've got 10 measurements"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1615.41,"endTime":1618.62,"body":"of how Saturn transits across"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1615.41,"endTime":1618.62,"body":"the heavens to where we start to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1618.62,"endTime":1621.35,"body":"have systems of multiple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1618.62,"endTime":1621.35,"body":"variables. But this principle of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1621.35,"endTime":1623.15,"body":"least squares carries forward I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1621.35,"endTime":1623.15,"body":"know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1623.149,"endTime":1625.669,"body":"it is just the first"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1623.149,"endTime":1625.669,"body":"episode and I should have gotten"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1625.669,"endTime":1630.589,"body":"my shovel before we started"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1625.669,"endTime":1630.589,"body":"recording. Because I should"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1630.739,"endTime":1633.289,"body":"probably go dig up Gauss."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1634.04,"endTime":1637.19,"body":"You know, why do we even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1634.04,"endTime":1637.19,"body":"rebury Gauss anymore?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1637.22,"endTime":1638.03,"body":"Frank?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1640.34,"endTime":1642.53,"body":"That's Patrick's neighbor,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1640.34,"endTime":1642.53,"body":"Frank, by the way,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1642.56,"endTime":1647.09,"body":"who is retired now the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1642.56,"endTime":1647.09,"body":"number of times he said, Hey,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1647.09,"endTime":1650.84,"body":"Patrick, I saw you got a new"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1647.09,"endTime":1650.84,"body":"leaf blower and I can't help but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1650.84,"endTime":1657.83,"body":"notice Gauss corpse. I'm like,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1650.84,"endTime":1657.83,"body":"geez, let's drag in Gauss corpse"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1657.86,"endTime":1662.24,"body":"because Gauss said, dude,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1657.86,"endTime":1662.24,"body":"Laplace, that is amazing, I got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1662.24,"endTime":1665.03,"body":"some things I can add to that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1662.24,"endTime":1665.03,"body":"And that turns into the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1665.03,"endTime":1667.55,"body":"classical linear prediction"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1665.03,"endTime":1667.55,"body":"model, which"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1667.58,"endTime":1670.34,"body":"for those of you who"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1667.58,"endTime":1670.34,"body":"haven't done the calculus, it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1670.34,"endTime":1674.24,"body":"such a beautiful thing, like you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1670.34,"endTime":1674.24,"body":"will weep tears of joy. If you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1674.24,"endTime":1677.72,"body":"go through and derive it, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1674.24,"endTime":1677.72,"body":"line of best fit has a slope and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1677.72,"endTime":1681.71,"body":"intercept that minimizes the sum"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1677.72,"endTime":1681.71,"body":"of squared deviations of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1681.71,"endTime":1685.94,"body":"points from that line, where we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1681.71,"endTime":1685.94,"body":"define the deviations or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1685.94,"endTime":1689.09,"body":"residuals from that line as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1685.94,"endTime":1689.09,"body":"being in the vertical direction"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1689.09,"endTime":1693.47,"body":"in the y direction. So we're not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1689.09,"endTime":1693.47,"body":"literally minimizing the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1693.5,"endTime":1696.14,"body":"perpendicular distances from the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1693.5,"endTime":1696.14,"body":"line. So if you were given a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1696.14,"endTime":1698.84,"body":"scatterplot, and someone said,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1696.14,"endTime":1698.84,"body":"Hey, throw a line in there, your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1698.84,"endTime":1702.71,"body":"eyeball might gravitate toward a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1698.84,"endTime":1702.71,"body":"line that minimizes how far the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1702.71,"endTime":1706.19,"body":"points are in terms of their"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1702.71,"endTime":1706.19,"body":"most immediate direct distance"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1706.19,"endTime":1708.92,"body":"to the line. But that's not what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1706.19,"endTime":1708.92,"body":"we actually do, we don't set a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1708.92,"endTime":1712.64,"body":"criterion as a distance that is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1708.92,"endTime":1712.64,"body":"a combination of x and y"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1712.64,"endTime":1716.27,"body":"information. Because the goal of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1712.64,"endTime":1716.27,"body":"regression is often to be able"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1716.27,"endTime":1718.94,"body":"to make predictions about or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1716.27,"endTime":1718.94,"body":"understand an outcome variable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1718.94,"endTime":1723.71,"body":"y, we focus on minimizing those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1718.94,"endTime":1723.71,"body":"residuals that in this case, are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1723.71,"endTime":1727.4,"body":"in the vertical dimension. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1723.71,"endTime":1727.4,"body":"so if you go through the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1727.4,"endTime":1731.51,"body":"calculus and say what intercept"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1727.4,"endTime":1731.51,"body":"and slope would minimize the sum"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1731.54,"endTime":1735.35,"body":"of squared deviations of points"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1731.54,"endTime":1735.35,"body":"in the vertical direction from a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1735.35,"endTime":1738.86,"body":"line, it just falls out the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1735.35,"endTime":1738.86,"body":"formula for the intercept of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1738.86,"endTime":1742.16,"body":"formula for the slope and you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1738.86,"endTime":1742.16,"body":"really get all choked up after"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1742.16,"endTime":1743.21,"body":"you do the calculus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1743.45,"endTime":1751.37,"body":"sexy hook so one of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1743.45,"endTime":1751.37,"body":"blank memes was like mean hook"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1751.37,"endTime":1755.12,"body":"and then evidently what's called"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1751.37,"endTime":1755.12,"body":"sexy hold that's lost on me"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1755.33,"endTime":1760.31,"body":"pothole occur whatever. But one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1755.33,"endTime":1760.31,"body":"of the submissions that was made"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1760.31,"endTime":1763.64,"body":"and it didn't make it to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1760.31,"endTime":1763.64,"body":"Final Four, but I have to admit,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1763.64,"endTime":1766.58,"body":"it was one of my favorite I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1763.64,"endTime":1766.58,"body":"still love the winner. But it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1766.58,"endTime":1771.62,"body":"was one of my favorite the raid"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1766.58,"endTime":1771.62,"body":"gene Hulk was simulation and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1771.62,"endTime":1775.19,"body":"sexy Hulk was derivation and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1771.62,"endTime":1775.19,"body":"know who did it and if you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1775.19,"endTime":1779.18,"body":"listening, well done that was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1775.19,"endTime":1779.18,"body":"one of my favorite because I've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1779.18,"endTime":1782.0,"body":"told stories in the past where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1779.18,"endTime":1782.0,"body":"Bower and I've worked together"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1782.0,"endTime":1785.21,"body":"for a lot of years and he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1782.0,"endTime":1785.21,"body":"actually understands math and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1785.21,"endTime":1791.0,"body":"don't I do massive simulation of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1785.21,"endTime":1791.0,"body":"just hit it as hard as you can."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1791.33,"endTime":1795.8,"body":"And Dan is sexy whole can does"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1791.33,"endTime":1795.8,"body":"the derivations we had an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1795.8,"endTime":1800.15,"body":"episode on are you tell me buddy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1795.8,"endTime":1800.15,"body":"is it was the regression In a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1800.15,"endTime":1802.97,"body":"friend you had in high school,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1800.15,"endTime":1802.97,"body":"we talked about this a little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1802.97,"endTime":1805.88,"body":"bit before, I don't remember"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1802.97,"endTime":1805.88,"body":"what episode that was. We talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1805.88,"endTime":1808.16,"body":"about that a little bit in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1805.88,"endTime":1808.16,"body":"there. And just to briefly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1808.16,"endTime":1811.76,"body":"repeat it, of what Greg just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1808.16,"endTime":1811.76,"body":"described is it really is a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1811.76,"endTime":1816.02,"body":"beautiful thing. Because imagine"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1811.76,"endTime":1816.02,"body":"that you have a scatterplot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1816.02,"endTime":1820.46,"body":"between x and y, and you want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1816.02,"endTime":1820.46,"body":"go back to fifth or sixth grade."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1820.61,"endTime":1825.98,"body":"And we learn this here of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1820.61,"endTime":1825.98,"body":"line of best fit a plus Bx, it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1825.98,"endTime":1829.97,"body":"a line, the scatterplot around"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1825.98,"endTime":1829.97,"body":"it, and so on. We want to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1830.0,"endTime":1832.85,"body":"what is the best line? All"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1830.0,"endTime":1832.85,"body":"right, well think about what is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1832.85,"endTime":1836.06,"body":"the best college what is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1832.85,"endTime":1836.06,"body":"best car? What is the best"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1836.06,"endTime":1840.47,"body":"estimate? Well, we're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1836.06,"endTime":1840.47,"body":"define best as that estimate,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1840.71,"endTime":1844.19,"body":"that results in the smallest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1840.71,"endTime":1844.19,"body":"possible sum of the squared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1844.19,"endTime":1848.48,"body":"residuals. So we could rage"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1844.19,"endTime":1848.48,"body":"Holcomb, right, so we have an XY"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1848.48,"endTime":1852.47,"body":"scatterplot. And we just pick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1848.48,"endTime":1852.47,"body":"point five for the slope, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1852.47,"endTime":1855.92,"body":"calculate the residuals, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1852.47,"endTime":1855.92,"body":"square them, we add them up, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1855.92,"endTime":1860.87,"body":"we go to another plot where the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1855.92,"endTime":1860.87,"body":"x axis is that value of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1860.87,"endTime":1864.83,"body":"SLO. So it's point five, and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1860.87,"endTime":1864.83,"body":"y axis is the sum of the squared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1864.83,"endTime":1867.47,"body":"residuals. So we're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1864.83,"endTime":1867.47,"body":"take point five, and we're going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1867.47,"endTime":1869.78,"body":"to go up and we're going to put"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1867.47,"endTime":1869.78,"body":"a dot right where that sum of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1869.78,"endTime":1873.41,"body":"the squared residuals now I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1869.78,"endTime":1873.41,"body":"going to rage HK point seven."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1874.37,"endTime":1876.44,"body":"I'm going to compute the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1874.37,"endTime":1876.44,"body":"residuals I'm going to square"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1876.47,"endTime":1878.54,"body":"I'm going to add them up, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1876.47,"endTime":1878.54,"body":"going to go to my second plot,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1878.66,"endTime":1881.66,"body":"I'm going to go to point seven."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1878.66,"endTime":1881.66,"body":"And I'm going to go up to what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1881.66,"endTime":1884.87,"body":"that sum of the squared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1881.66,"endTime":1884.87,"body":"residuals is. Point 3.2,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1884.87,"endTime":1888.8,"body":"negative point 1.5. I'm going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1884.87,"endTime":1888.8,"body":"range the hell out of this,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.83,"endTime":1895.01,"body":"you're going to start to see the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.83,"endTime":1895.01,"body":"outline of a parabola. Sexy Hulk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1895.07,"endTime":1899.3,"body":"is going to say, Okay, do your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1895.07,"endTime":1899.3,"body":"Hulk voice of like no rage Hulk,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1899.3,"endTime":1906.8,"body":"I don't know, whatever you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1899.3,"endTime":1906.8,"body":"doing. That was it. She's hot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1906.8,"endTime":1910.55,"body":"hook says I can write an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1906.8,"endTime":1910.55,"body":"equation for that parabola. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1910.55,"endTime":1913.25,"body":"not only can I write an equation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1910.55,"endTime":1913.25,"body":"for that, I can write an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1913.25,"endTime":1916.82,"body":"equation for the derivative of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1913.25,"endTime":1916.82,"body":"that, meaning it is the slope of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1916.82,"endTime":1920.39,"body":"the tangent line, at any point,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1916.82,"endTime":1920.39,"body":"I can take that derivative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1920.39,"endTime":1925.4,"body":"equation and set it to zero,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1920.39,"endTime":1925.4,"body":"which means that is the point"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1925.4,"endTime":1928.61,"body":"when it's horizontal, which"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1925.4,"endTime":1928.61,"body":"means that's the point at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1928.61,"endTime":1934.52,"body":"bottom of that parabola, which"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1928.61,"endTime":1934.52,"body":"means that is the minimum sum of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1934.52,"endTime":1937.73,"body":"the squared residuals, we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1934.52,"endTime":1937.73,"body":"going to call that a normal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1937.73,"endTime":1942.8,"body":"equation, the point at which"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1937.73,"endTime":1942.8,"body":"that tangent line is zero. We're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1942.8,"endTime":1947.45,"body":"going to solve for that and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1942.8,"endTime":1947.45,"body":"damned if that isn't the least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1947.45,"endTime":1952.25,"body":"squares best estimate of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1947.45,"endTime":1952.25,"body":"slope of that line. Given the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1952.25,"endTime":1957.68,"body":"Calvin bowl criteria, you said"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1952.25,"endTime":1957.68,"body":"defined best, which was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1957.71,"endTime":1959.63,"body":"minimizing the sum of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1957.71,"endTime":1959.63,"body":"squared residuals,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1959.659,"endTime":1963.529,"body":"you rage with your rage"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1959.659,"endTime":1963.529,"body":"hog, you stimulate the heck out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1963.529,"endTime":1966.319,"body":"of it, and you draw that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1963.529,"endTime":1966.319,"body":"parabola and Bower next door hot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1966.319,"endTime":1970.879,"body":"Hulk says, Yeah, I could derive"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1966.319,"endTime":1970.879,"body":"that and does and ultimately,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1970.879,"endTime":1973.939,"body":"you guys come to the same"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1970.879,"endTime":1973.939,"body":"answer. I will say that there's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1973.939,"endTime":1976.969,"body":"some value in rage Hulk for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1973.939,"endTime":1976.969,"body":"other things where it's much"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1976.969,"endTime":1979.639,"body":"harder to derive, then you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1976.969,"endTime":1979.639,"body":"simulate the heck out of it, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1979.639,"endTime":1982.309,"body":"get a sense of things. But for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1979.639,"endTime":1982.309,"body":"this, this is something that has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1982.309,"endTime":1985.129,"body":"a closed form. This is something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1982.309,"endTime":1985.129,"body":"that's drivable. And so we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1985.129,"endTime":1988.459,"body":"exact equations for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1985.129,"endTime":1988.459,"body":"intercept and the slope, there's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1988.459,"endTime":1993.529,"body":"so much that's beautiful in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1988.459,"endTime":1993.529,"body":"this. First of all, if I may say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1993.559,"endTime":1997.009,"body":"the idea of the sum of squares"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1993.559,"endTime":1997.009,"body":"is not just something that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1997.009,"endTime":2000.999,"body":"solved a problem of distances"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1997.009,"endTime":2000.999,"body":"being positive or negative. It's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2000.999,"endTime":2004.719,"body":"not just tied to other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2000.999,"endTime":2004.719,"body":"distributions, we use squares"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2004.719,"endTime":2008.289,"body":"and sums of squares all the time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2004.719,"endTime":2008.289,"body":"in our daily lives. Think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2008.289,"endTime":2011.709,"body":"the first time you took a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2008.289,"endTime":2011.709,"body":"geometry class, and you learned"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2011.739,"endTime":2015.909,"body":"about a right triangle. And you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2011.739,"endTime":2015.909,"body":"were given the length of one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2015.909,"endTime":2019.359,"body":"side, the length of the other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2015.909,"endTime":2019.359,"body":"side, and you had to figure out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2019.389,"endTime":2023.139,"body":"the length of the hypotenuse,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2019.389,"endTime":2023.139,"body":"and you squared the length of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2023.169,"endTime":2027.879,"body":"each of those legs and you sum"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2023.169,"endTime":2027.879,"body":"them up, you summed some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2027.879,"endTime":2031.179,"body":"squares, and the length of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2027.879,"endTime":2031.179,"body":"hypotenuse was the square root"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2031.179,"endTime":2034.749,"body":"of those, we are doing the exact"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2031.179,"endTime":2034.749,"body":"same thing. So this whole sum of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2034.749,"endTime":2039.459,"body":"squares thing is really nothing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2034.749,"endTime":2039.459,"body":"more than an extension of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2039.549,"endTime":2043.389,"body":"Euclidean geometry and extension"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2039.549,"endTime":2043.389,"body":"of pathetic Iris. It's got high"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2043.389,"endTime":2046.719,"body":"pot noose written all over it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2043.389,"endTime":2046.719,"body":"So this aligns so beautifully"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2046.719,"endTime":2049.329,"body":"with everything that we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2046.719,"endTime":2049.329,"body":"done, things that you have done"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2049.329,"endTime":2052.629,"body":"since you were a little geometry"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2049.329,"endTime":2052.629,"body":"student. And then it also"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2052.629,"endTime":2056.259,"body":"extends beautifully to having"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2052.629,"endTime":2056.259,"body":"more variables. Rather than"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2056.259,"endTime":2060.399,"body":"talking about points vertically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2056.259,"endTime":2060.399,"body":"above or below a line. This"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2060.399,"endTime":2062.739,"body":"extends into the multiple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2060.399,"endTime":2062.739,"body":"regression world."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2062.799,"endTime":2066.429,"body":"And a line becomes a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2062.799,"endTime":2066.429,"body":"plain picture facing the corner"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2066.429,"endTime":2070.989,"body":"of a room and the floor that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2066.429,"endTime":2070.989,"body":"comes out to the left is x one."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2071.289,"endTime":2075.699,"body":"The floor that comes out to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2071.289,"endTime":2075.699,"body":"right is x two y is the wall"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2075.699,"endTime":2079.899,"body":"that goes up to the ceiling. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2075.699,"endTime":2079.899,"body":"have a three dimensional space,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2080.139,"endTime":2084.639,"body":"you have a sphere of points."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2080.139,"endTime":2084.639,"body":"There's a relation, it's more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2084.639,"endTime":2088.869,"body":"like a football of points,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2084.639,"endTime":2088.869,"body":"right? You're taking a sheet of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2088.929,"endTime":2095.439,"body":"plywood and trying to at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2088.929,"endTime":2095.439,"body":"same time, get that x one slope"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2095.439,"endTime":2101.439,"body":"with y and that x two slope with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2095.439,"endTime":2101.439,"body":"y that jointly It minimizes the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2101.439,"endTime":2104.979,"body":"sum of the squared residuals of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2101.439,"endTime":2104.979,"body":"the points above and below the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2104.979,"endTime":2110.379,"body":"plane. Now we can rage whole can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2104.979,"endTime":2110.379,"body":"sexy for that as well. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2110.379,"endTime":2114.669,"body":"instead of a two dimensional"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2110.379,"endTime":2114.669,"body":"where there's a beta one on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2114.669,"endTime":2119.139,"body":"x axis and a sum of the squared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2114.669,"endTime":2119.139,"body":"residuals on the y, now, there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2119.139,"endTime":2123.369,"body":"a beta one with x one, beta two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2119.139,"endTime":2123.369,"body":"with x two, and the parabola"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2123.369,"endTime":2127.779,"body":"becomes an egg. And now instead"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2123.369,"endTime":2127.779,"body":"of computing a derivative of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2127.779,"endTime":2132.669,"body":"nonlinear function, that gives"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2127.779,"endTime":2132.669,"body":"us that tangent line that we set"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2132.669,"endTime":2136.329,"body":"to zero, that gives us the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2132.669,"endTime":2136.329,"body":"bottom of the parabola. Now we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2136.329,"endTime":2139.989,"body":"have partial derivatives, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2136.329,"endTime":2139.989,"body":"we're going to look at those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2139.989,"endTime":2144.819,"body":"tangent lines of each, we get a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2139.989,"endTime":2144.819,"body":"little cross at the bottom of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2144.819,"endTime":2151.329,"body":"the egg. And that is the value"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2144.819,"endTime":2151.329,"body":"of b one and B two that jointly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2151.419,"endTime":2153.759,"body":"give the smallest sum of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2151.419,"endTime":2153.759,"body":"squared residuals."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2153.79,"endTime":2156.28,"body":"And that's about the last"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2153.79,"endTime":2156.28,"body":"opportunity, we have to be able"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2156.28,"endTime":2158.95,"body":"to visualize it the way you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2156.28,"endTime":2158.95,"body":"describe, but it obviously"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2158.95,"endTime":2162.76,"body":"extends to more x's as well"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2158.95,"endTime":2162.76,"body":"bring as many x's as you want."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2162.79,"endTime":2165.34,"body":"One way that I sometimes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2162.79,"endTime":2165.34,"body":"describe multiple regression,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2165.34,"endTime":2169.18,"body":"which is a very crude way, is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2165.34,"endTime":2169.18,"body":"that you have a bunch of X's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2169.18,"endTime":2172.03,"body":"right and your goal, someone"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2169.18,"endTime":2172.03,"body":"says, I'm going to give you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2172.03,"endTime":2175.18,"body":"these x's, and you have to build"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2172.03,"endTime":2175.18,"body":"something that looks as much"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2175.18,"endTime":2180.13,"body":"like y as possible. And you come"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2175.18,"endTime":2180.13,"body":"up with a recipe Oh, okay, so I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2180.13,"endTime":2185.62,"body":"need three tablespoons of x one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2180.13,"endTime":2185.62,"body":"and I need two teaspoons of x"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2185.62,"endTime":2189.73,"body":"two, and I need three"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2185.62,"endTime":2189.73,"body":"milliliters of x three, and then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2189.73,"endTime":2193.09,"body":"you come up with this particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2189.73,"endTime":2193.09,"body":"thing that creates things that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.12,"endTime":2196.54,"body":"look as much like y as possible."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.12,"endTime":2196.54,"body":"So when we talk about sums of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2196.54,"endTime":2199.81,"body":"squares with respect to lines,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2196.54,"endTime":2199.81,"body":"and planes, and all of that, at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2199.81,"endTime":2202.42,"body":"the end of the day, the sums of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2199.81,"endTime":2202.42,"body":"squares that we're minimizing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2202.45,"endTime":2205.9,"body":"are the differences between the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2202.45,"endTime":2205.9,"body":"observed y's and the predicted"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.9,"endTime":2209.89,"body":"Y's where the predicted y's are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.9,"endTime":2209.89,"body":"the best concoction you can make"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2209.92,"endTime":2213.76,"body":"where you only have the x's to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2209.92,"endTime":2213.76,"body":"play with, this extends to as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2213.76,"endTime":2217.24,"body":"many x's as you have. And it is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2213.76,"endTime":2217.24,"body":"a beautiful thing. When you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2217.24,"endTime":2219.4,"body":"said that it was a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2217.24,"endTime":2219.4,"body":"crude way of describing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2219.4,"endTime":2221.68,"body":"regression, I thought I was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2219.4,"endTime":2221.68,"body":"gonna have to beat out a bunch"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2221.68,"endTime":2229.54,"body":"of stuff. You have x and y, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2221.68,"endTime":2229.54,"body":"you take some damn combination"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2229.54,"endTime":2235.51,"body":"of the mother. And that's your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2229.54,"endTime":2235.51,"body":"model, are you happy? That's how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2235.51,"endTime":2237.67,"body":"I crudely describe regression."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2235.51,"endTime":2237.67,"body":"Thank"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2237.67,"endTime":2238.33,"body":"you, Rachel."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2240.16,"endTime":2243.76,"body":"I'm telling you, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2240.16,"endTime":2243.76,"body":"analogy works. Your point is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2243.76,"endTime":2249.37,"body":"exceedingly well taken, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2243.76,"endTime":2249.37,"body":"squared deviations start coming"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2249.37,"endTime":2255.28,"body":"up all over the place of sums of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2249.37,"endTime":2255.28,"body":"squares, and things that we do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2255.28,"endTime":2259.18,"body":"with those, whether that be a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2255.28,"endTime":2259.18,"body":"variance, whether that be taking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2259.18,"endTime":2262.66,"body":"a square root to get a standard"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2259.18,"endTime":2262.66,"body":"deviation, whether it means"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2262.66,"endTime":2266.56,"body":"powering them to third and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2262.66,"endTime":2266.56,"body":"fourth powers to get things like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2266.56,"endTime":2271.0,"body":"skewness and kurtosis. Whether"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2266.56,"endTime":2271.0,"body":"that means we take the length of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2271.0,"endTime":2276.16,"body":"vectors and areas of a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2271.0,"endTime":2276.16,"body":"hyperplane to get a determinant."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2276.34,"endTime":2280.3,"body":"They are all variations on sums"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2276.34,"endTime":2280.3,"body":"of squares. Alright, so to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2280.3,"endTime":2286.96,"body":"review so far, we have rage Hulk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2280.3,"endTime":2286.96,"body":"sexy, wandering camels, Calvin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2286.96,"endTime":2289.57,"body":"Ball, Calvin Ball, what about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2286.96,"endTime":2289.57,"body":"the Reaper?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2291.28,"endTime":2293.71,"body":"The Reaper has to make an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2291.28,"endTime":2293.71,"body":"appearance in episode one,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2293.71,"endTime":2294.37,"body":"season four."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2294.52,"endTime":2296.83,"body":"Okay, buddy, where do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2294.52,"endTime":2296.83,"body":"we pay the Reaper,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2296.89,"endTime":2299.86,"body":"there are a variety of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2296.89,"endTime":2299.86,"body":"places where we pay the Reaper,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2299.89,"endTime":2303.7,"body":"or we make assumptions that then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2299.89,"endTime":2303.7,"body":"make us pay the Reaper. One of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2303.7,"endTime":2306.07,"body":"the problems when you square"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2303.7,"endTime":2306.07,"body":"things is that bigger things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2306.07,"endTime":2310.06,"body":"when you square them get way way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2306.07,"endTime":2310.06,"body":"bigger. And smaller things don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2310.09,"endTime":2315.04,"body":"that means that whenever we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2310.09,"endTime":2315.04,"body":"square residuals or deviations,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2315.1,"endTime":2319.45,"body":"things that are very far away,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2315.1,"endTime":2319.45,"body":"get way way far away in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2319.45,"endTime":2323.29,"body":"squared metric. And what that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2319.45,"endTime":2323.29,"body":"does, for better or worse is it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2323.29,"endTime":2326.62,"body":"starts to give certain data"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2323.29,"endTime":2326.62,"body":"points more leverage,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2326.62,"endTime":2330.58,"body":"potentially more say in that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2326.62,"endTime":2330.58,"body":"measure of variability. So when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2330.58,"endTime":2334.09,"body":"we have a score, that is an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2330.58,"endTime":2334.09,"body":"outlier, you square that guy,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2334.12,"endTime":2338.35,"body":"and it really contributes and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2334.12,"endTime":2338.35,"body":"maybe even over contributes. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2338.35,"endTime":2341.62,"body":"one of the downsides of least"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2338.35,"endTime":2341.62,"body":"squares is that it's extremely"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2341.62,"endTime":2342.91,"body":"sensitive to outliers."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2343.03,"endTime":2345.13,"body":"Okay, so I'm going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2343.03,"endTime":2345.13,"body":"throw a little pop quiz atcha,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2345.13,"endTime":2348.73,"body":"then, I mean, we might as well"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2345.13,"endTime":2348.73,"body":"work all sorts of things into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2348.73,"endTime":2352.21,"body":"this first episode. Oh, boy. All"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2348.73,"endTime":2352.21,"body":"right, what what that takes us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2352.21,"endTime":2357.52,"body":"back to is the best. What is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2352.21,"endTime":2357.52,"body":"best estimator? Well, there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2357.52,"endTime":2361.66,"body":"not a single best, we have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2357.52,"endTime":2361.66,"body":"have a set of Calvin Ball rules"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2361.69,"endTime":2367.63,"body":"that if they apply least squares"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2361.69,"endTime":2367.63,"body":"is the best method available."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2367.9,"endTime":2372.22,"body":"But if they do not apply, it may"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2367.9,"endTime":2372.22,"body":"not be so here's your pop quiz."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2372.64,"endTime":2376.81,"body":"I made the effort to dig up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2372.64,"endTime":2376.81,"body":"Gauss and drag in his corpse. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2376.81,"endTime":2381.7,"body":"think I've already done my part"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2376.81,"endTime":2381.7,"body":"in this discussion. Tell me what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2381.7,"endTime":2386.74,"body":"are some of Gauss conditions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2381.7,"endTime":2386.74,"body":"that would lead ordinary least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2386.74,"endTime":2390.55,"body":"squares to be the best Linear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2386.74,"endTime":2390.55,"body":"Unbiased Estimator?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2390.58,"endTime":2393.97,"body":"Okay, I'll throw one out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2390.58,"endTime":2393.97,"body":"and then you throw one out, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2393.97,"endTime":2401.08,"body":"no, I Calvin Ball rules state"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2393.97,"endTime":2401.08,"body":"that I can make up a new rule"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2401.08,"endTime":2403.84,"body":"right now and it becomes a new"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2401.08,"endTime":2403.84,"body":"rule. Did I understand that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2403.84,"endTime":2404.2,"body":"correct?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2404.2,"endTime":2407.5,"body":"You understood that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2404.2,"endTime":2407.5,"body":"correctly? Okay. How about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2407.5,"endTime":2408.07,"body":"normality"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2408.07,"endTime":2409.42,"body":"associated with the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2408.07,"endTime":2409.42,"body":"residuals."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2411.55,"endTime":2414.73,"body":"Gauss didn't say one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2411.55,"endTime":2414.73,"body":"word about normality of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2414.73,"endTime":2417.94,"body":"residuals. This is a little bit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2414.73,"endTime":2417.94,"body":"of an urban myth of least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2417.94,"endTime":2423.97,"body":"squares does least squares"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2417.94,"endTime":2423.97,"body":"estimation require normality."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2424.3,"endTime":2429.22,"body":"Gauss Markov never invokes the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2424.3,"endTime":2429.22,"body":"assumption of normality. That"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2429.22,"endTime":2431.71,"body":"was a trick question. You're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2429.22,"endTime":2431.71,"body":"gonna come out swinging, aren't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2431.71,"endTime":2431.86,"body":"you?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2432.19,"endTime":2435.79,"body":"I am. So when we want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2432.19,"endTime":2435.79,"body":"make inferences later about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2435.79,"endTime":2438.4,"body":"predictions, normality starts to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2435.79,"endTime":2438.4,"body":"rear its head for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2438.4,"endTime":2440.8,"body":"significance test. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2438.4,"endTime":2440.8,"body":"specifically for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2440.8,"endTime":2444.13,"body":"minimization for the least"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2440.8,"endTime":2444.13,"body":"squares estimation. You're right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2444.13,"endTime":2445.75,"body":"normality doesn't even creep in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2444.13,"endTime":2445.75,"body":"there."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2445.84,"endTime":2449.29,"body":"That's another how to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2445.84,"endTime":2449.29,"body":"lose friends and be intolerably"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2449.29,"endTime":2452.98,"body":"self righteous. It's a book Greg"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2449.29,"endTime":2452.98,"body":"and I are working on. That's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2452.98,"endTime":2457.21,"body":"something that you can drop at a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2452.98,"endTime":2457.21,"body":"cocktail party, which is to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2457.24,"endTime":2462.13,"body":"obtain the best point estimates"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2457.24,"endTime":2462.13,"body":"using least squares estimation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2462.16,"endTime":2466.84,"body":"invokes nothing about the shape"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2462.16,"endTime":2466.84,"body":"of the distribution. Now, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2466.84,"endTime":2469.93,"body":"shape of the distribution"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2466.84,"endTime":2469.93,"body":"becomes fundamentally important."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2470.11,"endTime":2473.32,"body":"If we want to start making"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2470.11,"endTime":2473.32,"body":"assumptions about the shape of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2473.32,"endTime":2476.95,"body":"sampling distributions. Why do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2473.32,"endTime":2476.95,"body":"we do that? Because we need to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2476.95,"endTime":2481.03,"body":"find areas under the curve. Why"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2476.95,"endTime":2481.03,"body":"do we need to do that? So we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2481.03,"endTime":2484.51,"body":"assign probabilities? Well, how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2481.03,"endTime":2484.51,"body":"do you get area under the curve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2484.51,"endTime":2488.86,"body":"if you don't know what the curve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2484.51,"endTime":2488.86,"body":"is? All right, all of that comes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2488.86,"endTime":2494.56,"body":"in. But Gauss, and then later"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2488.86,"endTime":2494.56,"body":"Markov, who set out these Kelvin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2494.56,"endTime":2498.43,"body":"ball rules for least squares"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2494.56,"endTime":2498.43,"body":"estimation, never invoked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2498.43,"endTime":2503.32,"body":"normality. So I saw your little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2498.43,"endTime":2503.32,"body":"intellectual Judo you just did"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2503.32,"endTime":2506.74,"body":"to me, because not only did you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2503.32,"endTime":2506.74,"body":"bounce it back to me, but you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2506.74,"endTime":2510.19,"body":"didn't even do one to begin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2506.74,"endTime":2510.19,"body":"with. You started number one on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2510.19,"endTime":2512.77,"body":"me. So what did Gauss say?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2512.86,"endTime":2517.18,"body":"Wait, no. And now it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2512.86,"endTime":2517.18,"body":"your turn? How does that work?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2517.21,"endTime":2520.18,"body":"That's what we already said that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2517.21,"endTime":2520.18,"body":"you would do that. So okay, go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2520.18,"endTime":2521.47,"body":"ahead. Now you do the next one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2521.5,"endTime":2522.85,"body":"linear in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2521.5,"endTime":2522.85,"body":"parameters?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2522.88,"endTime":2523.99,"body":"What the heck does that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2522.88,"endTime":2523.99,"body":"mean?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2524.02,"endTime":2527.14,"body":"Dude, are you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2524.02,"endTime":2527.14,"body":"reflecting the entire thing on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2527.14,"endTime":2532.09,"body":"me, this is another urban myth,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2527.14,"endTime":2532.09,"body":"in least squares, as I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2532.09,"endTime":2536.65,"body":"heard people say, you should"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2532.09,"endTime":2536.65,"body":"never use linear regression."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2536.74,"endTime":2542.14,"body":"Because everything we study is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2536.74,"endTime":2542.14,"body":"nonlinear. That's not correct to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2542.14,"endTime":2547.39,"body":"say, the linearity is in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2542.14,"endTime":2547.39,"body":"relation between x and y picture"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2547.39,"endTime":2552.46,"body":"and x y relation, that is a big"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2547.39,"endTime":2552.46,"body":"St. Louis Arch parabola have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2552.46,"endTime":2557.05,"body":"occurred, we can do that in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2552.46,"endTime":2557.05,"body":"linear regression model, we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2557.05,"endTime":2563.44,"body":"beta naught plus beta 1x plus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2557.05,"endTime":2563.44,"body":"beta 2x squared, there you go."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2563.62,"endTime":2568.33,"body":"We can have nonlinear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2563.62,"endTime":2568.33,"body":"predictors. But notice beta"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2568.33,"endTime":2572.89,"body":"naught, beta one and beta two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2568.33,"endTime":2572.89,"body":"are themselves entering the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2572.89,"endTime":2579.13,"body":"model linearly, we do not have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2572.89,"endTime":2579.13,"body":"beta naught plus beta one e to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2579.13,"endTime":2585.37,"body":"the beta 2x. That is nonlinear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2579.13,"endTime":2585.37,"body":"in the parameters, because beta"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2585.37,"endTime":2590.05,"body":"two lives up in the cockpit of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2585.37,"endTime":2590.05,"body":"the exponential, okay, that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2590.05,"endTime":2595.63,"body":"can't do. But Gauss said, as an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2590.05,"endTime":2595.63,"body":"opening gambit, it has to be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2595.63,"endTime":2598.9,"body":"linear in the parameters. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2595.63,"endTime":2598.9,"body":"then I guess I throw another one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.9,"endTime":2602.29,"body":"at you. Well, I've done like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.9,"endTime":2602.29,"body":"three at this point. And so I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2602.29,"endTime":2605.62,"body":"can run the table if you want."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2602.29,"endTime":2605.62,"body":"Let's rip through these."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2605.68,"endTime":2609.76,"body":"Alright, Gauss nor Markov ever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2605.68,"endTime":2609.76,"body":"said anything about measurement"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2609.76,"endTime":2612.79,"body":"error. All right, this turned"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2609.76,"endTime":2612.79,"body":"into an urban myths episode. It"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2612.79,"endTime":2616.69,"body":"is an urban myth, that Gauss"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2612.79,"endTime":2616.69,"body":"Markov says that the predictors"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2616.69,"endTime":2620.62,"body":"are error free. What Gauss"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2616.69,"endTime":2620.62,"body":"Markov states is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2620.62,"endTime":2625.48,"body":"distributions are fixed and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2620.62,"endTime":2625.48,"body":"known. There you go, it means"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2625.48,"endTime":2627.82,"body":"that we don't make an assumption"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2625.48,"endTime":2627.82,"body":"about the shape of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2627.82,"endTime":2633.19,"body":"predictors, and we assume the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2627.82,"endTime":2633.19,"body":"predictors are error free, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2633.19,"endTime":2637.6,"body":"Gauss, even at the bottom of my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2633.19,"endTime":2637.6,"body":"grave that I'm trying to hide"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2637.6,"endTime":2642.37,"body":"from Frank, is you can still"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2637.6,"endTime":2642.37,"body":"hear Gauss mumble out there. I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2642.37,"endTime":2644.47,"body":"just gonna use like a British"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2642.37,"endTime":2644.47,"body":"accent, but first, it'll come"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.47,"endTime":2647.74,"body":"out as a pirate. And second, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.47,"endTime":2647.74,"body":"don't know what his country of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2647.74,"endTime":2653.17,"body":"origin is. He's German. Okay, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2647.74,"endTime":2653.17,"body":"I'm not even going there. At the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2653.17,"endTime":2658.69,"body":"bottom of his grave, Gauss keeps"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2653.17,"endTime":2658.69,"body":"grousing about he never said"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2658.69,"endTime":2661.42,"body":"anything about measurement"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2658.69,"endTime":2661.42,"body":"error, it is that they are fixed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2661.42,"endTime":2665.77,"body":"and known. And then a logical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2661.42,"endTime":2665.77,"body":"outcome of that is they are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2665.77,"endTime":2666.37,"body":"error free."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2666.399,"endTime":2670.239,"body":"That's number three."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2666.399,"endTime":2670.239,"body":"Actually. We're listening all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2670.239,"endTime":2674.679,"body":"the things it's not. That's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2670.239,"endTime":2674.679,"body":"great. What else do you have up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2674.679,"endTime":2675.759,"body":"your list speed through?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2675.82,"endTime":2679.48,"body":"No, you have not given"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2675.82,"endTime":2679.48,"body":"me one. I know what's going on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2679.48,"endTime":2680.68,"body":"here. I see this."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2680.71,"endTime":2684.19,"body":"How about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2680.71,"endTime":2684.19,"body":"homoscedasticity? Yes, Gauss did"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2684.19,"endTime":2688.15,"body":"say that the variance across the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2684.19,"endTime":2688.15,"body":"length of the line across the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2688.15,"endTime":2691.6,"body":"plane across whatever surface it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2688.15,"endTime":2691.6,"body":"is that you have, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2691.6,"endTime":2694.48,"body":"variability is constant across"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2691.6,"endTime":2694.48,"body":"that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2694.509,"endTime":2697.629,"body":"So that is the three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2694.509,"endTime":2697.629,"body":"dimensional baguette, you have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2697.629,"endTime":2701.469,"body":"an x y you have an ellipse, it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2697.629,"endTime":2701.469,"body":"comes away from the piece of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2701.469,"endTime":2705.279,"body":"paper from you because it's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2701.469,"endTime":2705.279,"body":"joint distribution. And no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2705.279,"endTime":2709.569,"body":"matter where you cut the bag,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2705.279,"endTime":2709.569,"body":"get at different values of x and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2709.569,"endTime":2715.029,"body":"turn and look at the sides. That"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2709.569,"endTime":2715.029,"body":"is the same distribution. Now,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2715.059,"endTime":2718.599,"body":"Gauss said that doesn't have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2715.059,"endTime":2718.599,"body":"be normal, but it has to be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2718.599,"endTime":2722.589,"body":"homeless scholastic. Later, when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2718.599,"endTime":2722.589,"body":"we want to do inferences, then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2722.589,"endTime":2726.219,"body":"that does have to be normal."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2722.589,"endTime":2726.219,"body":"When you cut that back get, it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2726.219,"endTime":2730.179,"body":"has to have a mean of zero. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2726.219,"endTime":2730.179,"body":"the same variance no matter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2730.179,"endTime":2730.839,"body":"where you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2730.84,"endTime":2735.31,"body":"cut. How about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2730.84,"endTime":2735.31,"body":"independence of errors? No two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2735.31,"endTime":2738.07,"body":"residuals can be any"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2735.31,"endTime":2738.07,"body":"more or less related than any"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2738.07,"endTime":2742.0,"body":"other to residuals. And that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2738.07,"endTime":2742.0,"body":"sometimes called the IID"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2742.03,"endTime":2746.38,"body":"assumption. The residuals are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2742.03,"endTime":2746.38,"body":"independent and identically"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2746.38,"endTime":2749.38,"body":"distributed. What else you got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2746.38,"endTime":2749.38,"body":"on your list? A couple of core"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.38,"endTime":2752.68,"body":"ones are you have to have at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.38,"endTime":2752.68,"body":"least one more subject than"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2752.68,"endTime":2756.58,"body":"number of predictors. This is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2752.68,"endTime":2756.58,"body":"another intolerably self"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2756.58,"endTime":2759.64,"body":"righteous one where you're at a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2756.58,"endTime":2759.64,"body":"cocktail party and say, oh, did"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2759.64,"endTime":2765.37,"body":"you know? And what that is, is I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2759.64,"endTime":2765.37,"body":"don't know what, ah, what that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2765.37,"endTime":2768.1,"body":"allows is you can invert the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2765.37,"endTime":2768.1,"body":"matrix, if you have five"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2768.1,"endTime":2771.22,"body":"predictors, all you need are six"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2768.1,"endTime":2771.22,"body":"people and you're fine. Well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2771.22,"endTime":2773.98,"body":"okay, maybe not. But you get the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2771.22,"endTime":2773.98,"body":"point, there has to be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2773.98,"endTime":2777.25,"body":"variability in your predictor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2773.98,"endTime":2777.25,"body":"variables, that makes perfect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2777.25,"endTime":2778.81,"body":"sense, you can't have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2777.25,"endTime":2778.81,"body":"constant, you have to have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2778.81,"endTime":2782.17,"body":"variability in your x's, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2778.81,"endTime":2782.17,"body":"can't have perfect colinearity."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2782.2,"endTime":2785.77,"body":"So you can't have two predictors"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2782.2,"endTime":2785.77,"body":"that are correlated 1.0, they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.77,"endTime":2788.47,"body":"can get awfully close. And we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.77,"endTime":2788.47,"body":"can talk about that on another"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2788.47,"endTime":2792.01,"body":"day. But they can't be perfect."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2788.47,"endTime":2792.01,"body":"You can't have a correlation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2792.01,"endTime":2795.22,"body":"between a residual and a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2792.01,"endTime":2795.22,"body":"predictor. And you have to have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2795.22,"endTime":2797.35,"body":"a correct model. And that's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2795.22,"endTime":2797.35,"body":"weird one to get your head"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2797.35,"endTime":2800.89,"body":"around. Does that mean a correct"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2797.35,"endTime":2800.89,"body":"model? Okay, you realize that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2800.89,"endTime":2804.22,"body":"over 10 minutes, you haven't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2800.89,"endTime":2804.22,"body":"answered a single question, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2804.22,"endTime":2807.82,"body":"you have black belt Judo meet on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2804.22,"endTime":2807.82,"body":"the buy your thing?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2807.85,"endTime":2810.85,"body":"If you don't know, then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2807.85,"endTime":2810.85,"body":"that's fine. I don't Would you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2810.85,"endTime":2814.84,"body":"please tell me? Wait, what was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2810.85,"endTime":2814.84,"body":"the question? That's a matter."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2814.9,"endTime":2817.21,"body":"Yeah, the assumption about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2814.9,"endTime":2817.21,"body":"something being the right model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2817.21,"endTime":2820.3,"body":"kind of primitive pervades a lot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2817.21,"endTime":2820.3,"body":"of things that we have, there's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2820.3,"endTime":2822.97,"body":"either a lot we could unpack"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2820.3,"endTime":2822.97,"body":"there or not much that we could"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2822.97,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"unpack there. I'm gonna judo"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2822.97,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"move you and not unpack it right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2826.15,"endTime":2829.78,"body":"there. But if all of these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2826.15,"endTime":2829.78,"body":"things are in place, then the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2829.78,"endTime":2834.19,"body":"estimator is said to be blue."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2829.78,"endTime":2834.19,"body":"There you go. Best linear,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2834.19,"endTime":2838.81,"body":"unbiased estimate, and we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2834.19,"endTime":2838.81,"body":"statisticians are Hopelessly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2838.81,"endTime":2840.31,"body":"Devoted to blue."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2840.88,"endTime":2843.25,"body":"No, no, it's too early"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2840.88,"endTime":2843.25,"body":"in the season."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2843.82,"endTime":2844.96,"body":"Hopeless."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2845.98,"endTime":2848.59,"body":"No, you're not dude,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2845.98,"endTime":2848.59,"body":"I'm gonna tap out right here, if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2848.59,"endTime":2848.71,"body":"you."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2850.66,"endTime":2851.92,"body":"Alright, what do you want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2850.66,"endTime":2851.92,"body":"to say about Blue"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2852.009,"endTime":2855.999,"body":"Kelvin, double Gauss"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2852.009,"endTime":2855.999,"body":"Markov is Kelvin bowl. And when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2855.999,"endTime":2862.119,"body":"you meet that there exists no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2855.999,"endTime":2862.119,"body":"other estimator in that class of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2862.119,"endTime":2865.569,"body":"linear estimators that results"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2862.119,"endTime":2865.569,"body":"in a smaller sum of squared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2865.569,"endTime":2869.739,"body":"residuals, it is the best Linear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2865.569,"endTime":2869.739,"body":"Unbiased Estimator available,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2869.769,"endTime":2873.609,"body":"but it's just like saying, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2869.769,"endTime":2873.609,"body":"is the best college? It depends,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2873.639,"endTime":2877.779,"body":"is a well less blue. It is under"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2873.639,"endTime":2877.779,"body":"Gauss Markov."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2877.87,"endTime":2880.15,"body":"And when those conditions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2877.87,"endTime":2880.15,"body":"don't hold, then what do we do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2880.18,"endTime":2881.74,"body":"have episode two or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2881.74,"endTime":2886.33,"body":"three or four? Where we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2881.74,"endTime":2886.33,"body":"say, what do we do? What if it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2886.33,"endTime":2889.42,"body":"is not homeless? gastic? What"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2886.33,"endTime":2889.42,"body":"does fit is not independent?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2889.45,"endTime":2892.6,"body":"What if you don't have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2889.45,"endTime":2892.6,"body":"continuous dependent variable,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2892.63,"endTime":2897.91,"body":"all of these things, say, Oh, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2892.63,"endTime":2897.91,"body":"violated Calvin Ball, it is no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2897.91,"endTime":2901.72,"body":"longer our best Linear Unbiased"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2897.91,"endTime":2901.72,"body":"Estimator. Then we get into this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2901.72,"endTime":2906.28,"body":"really interesting topographical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2901.72,"endTime":2906.28,"body":"space, which is well, is it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2906.28,"endTime":2910.21,"body":"close enough for government"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2906.28,"endTime":2910.21,"body":"work? Or do we need to look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2910.21,"endTime":2913.87,"body":"ourselves in the mirror and say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2910.21,"endTime":2913.87,"body":"Now I can't use this anymore, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2913.87,"endTime":2916.96,"body":"got to move to something else."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2913.87,"endTime":2916.96,"body":"And so that's I think a topic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2916.96,"endTime":2920.32,"body":"for future conversations is when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2916.96,"endTime":2920.32,"body":"do we tap out and move to other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2920.32,"endTime":2924.94,"body":"things? But before we do that, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2920.32,"endTime":2924.94,"body":"think we should all take a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2924.94,"endTime":2928.0,"body":"moment of deep and sincere"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2924.94,"endTime":2928.0,"body":"respect for least squares"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2928.0,"endTime":2932.68,"body":"estimation, because it is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2928.0,"endTime":2932.68,"body":"profoundly important and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2932.68,"endTime":2938.74,"body":"interesting, and cool. And rage"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2932.68,"endTime":2938.74,"body":"Hulk and sassy Hulk will still"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2938.74,"endTime":2943.12,"body":"give you that same be one that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2938.74,"endTime":2943.12,"body":"the bottom of that parabola."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2943.15,"endTime":2948.37,"body":"Sexy Hulk doesn't much sexier"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2943.15,"endTime":2948.37,"body":"than rage. Ciocca does. What I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2948.37,"endTime":2952.33,"body":"am rage Hulk, who can't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2948.37,"endTime":2952.33,"body":"benchpress his own bodyweight?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2952.48,"endTime":2956.44,"body":"That's because you need to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2952.48,"endTime":2956.44,"body":"get physical, physical, you need"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2956.44,"endTime":2964.87,"body":"to know everything that we've"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2956.44,"endTime":2964.87,"body":"talked about so far, has fallen"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2964.87,"endTime":2968.32,"body":"under the heading of ordinary"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2964.87,"endTime":2968.32,"body":"least squares, which is in this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2968.47,"endTime":2971.38,"body":"linear family with certain"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2968.47,"endTime":2971.38,"body":"assumptions that are being made."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2971.41,"endTime":2974.68,"body":"What is beyond the ordinary"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2971.41,"endTime":2974.68,"body":"Patrick,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2974.799,"endTime":2978.669,"body":"who will What about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2974.799,"endTime":2978.669,"body":"something like to stage least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2978.669,"endTime":2984.219,"body":"squares, or partial least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2978.669,"endTime":2984.219,"body":"squares? All of these things are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2984.219,"endTime":2989.469,"body":"variants on the same theme, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2984.219,"endTime":2989.469,"body":"allow us to do things that may"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2989.469,"endTime":2993.999,"body":"be ordinary least squares does"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2989.469,"endTime":2993.999,"body":"not. But it's still that same"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2993.999,"endTime":2997.269,"body":"foundation. And I think we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2993.999,"endTime":2997.269,"body":"should address those on a later"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2997.269,"endTime":2997.659,"body":"episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2997.72,"endTime":3000.69,"body":"Let's do that. Thanks very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2997.72,"endTime":3000.69,"body":"much, everybody. Thank you for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3000.69,"endTime":3003.39,"body":"tolerating us and we're looking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3000.69,"endTime":3003.39,"body":"forward to season four."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3003.45,"endTime":3005.28,"body":"Take care, everybody."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3003.45,"endTime":3005.28,"body":"All right, bye bye,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3005.33,"endTime":3012.5,"body":"see ya. Thanks so much for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3005.33,"endTime":3012.5,"body":"joining us. Don't forget to tell"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3012.5,"endTime":3015.86,"body":"your friends to subscribe to us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3012.5,"endTime":3015.86,"body":"on Apple podcasts, Spotify, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3015.86,"endTime":3018.71,"body":"wherever they go to avoid class"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3015.86,"endTime":3018.71,"body":"prep for the new school year."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3018.98,"endTime":3021.5,"body":"You can also follow us on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3018.98,"endTime":3021.5,"body":"Twitter where we are at quantity"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3021.5,"endTime":3025.07,"body":"food pod and visit our website"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3021.5,"endTime":3025.07,"body":"quantity food pod.org where you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3025.07,"endTime":3027.68,"body":"can leave us a message find"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3025.07,"endTime":3027.68,"body":"organized playlists and show"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3027.68,"endTime":3030.8,"body":"notes. Listen to past episodes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3027.68,"endTime":3030.8,"body":"and other fun stuff. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3030.8,"endTime":3034.01,"body":"finally, you can get cool back"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3030.8,"endTime":3034.01,"body":"to school quantity merch, like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3034.01,"endTime":3036.56,"body":"shirts, mugs, stickers and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3034.01,"endTime":3036.56,"body":"spiral notebooks from Red"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3036.56,"endTime":3040.01,"body":"bubble.com Where All proceeds go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3036.56,"endTime":3040.01,"body":"to donorschoose.org to help"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3040.01,"endTime":3042.35,"body":"support low income schools."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3040.01,"endTime":3042.35,"body":"You've been listening to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3042.35,"endTime":3045.68,"body":"quantitative the podcast that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3042.35,"endTime":3045.68,"body":"not even fishers z prime"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3045.68,"endTime":3048.74,"body":"transformation could make"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3045.68,"endTime":3048.74,"body":"normal. Today's episode has been"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3048.74,"endTime":3052.67,"body":"sponsored by US college ranking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3048.74,"endTime":3052.67,"body":"reports always handy to have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3052.67,"endTime":3055.73,"body":"around in case you need a random"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3052.67,"endTime":3055.73,"body":"number generator. And by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3055.73,"endTime":3059.6,"body":"asymptotes your functions way of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3055.73,"endTime":3059.6,"body":"asking Are we there yet? Are we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3059.6,"endTime":3063.65,"body":"there yet? And finally by recall"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3059.6,"endTime":3063.65,"body":"PIM Believe it or not, this is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3063.65,"endTime":3069.05,"body":"not a Charles Dickens character."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3063.65,"endTime":3069.05,"body":"Mr. rychel Pim This is most"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3069.05,"endTime":3080.03,"body":"definitely not NPR you listening"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3069.05,"endTime":3080.03,"body":"to qualitative methods East"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3080.03,"endTime":3085.58,"body":"Chapel high school. But I like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3080.03,"endTime":3085.58,"body":"psychologists Four beers!"}]}