{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":5.37,"endTime":8.31,"body":"Welcome. My name is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":5.37,"endTime":8.31,"body":"Patrick Curran and along with my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":8.31,"endTime":12.6,"body":"very best friend Greg Hancock,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":8.31,"endTime":12.6,"body":"I'm sorry, Dan, I have to say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":12.6,"endTime":16.89,"body":"that we make up quantity dude."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":12.6,"endTime":16.89,"body":"We are a podcast dedicated to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.89,"endTime":19.68,"body":"all things quantitative ranging"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.89,"endTime":19.68,"body":"from the irrelevant to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":19.68,"endTime":23.31,"body":"completely irrelevant. In this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":19.68,"endTime":23.31,"body":"week's episode, Greg and I spend"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":23.31,"endTime":27.09,"body":"a wonderful, if not, at times"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":23.31,"endTime":27.09,"body":"awkward hour talking with Dan"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.09,"endTime":30.0,"body":"Bauer about the genesis"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.09,"endTime":30.0,"body":"application and future"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":30.0,"endTime":35.52,"body":"directions of what may be the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":30.0,"endTime":35.52,"body":"world's worst acronym and LFA or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":35.52,"endTime":39.51,"body":"moderated nonlinear factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":35.52,"endTime":39.51,"body":"analysis. Along the way, we also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":39.51,"endTime":44.97,"body":"discuss unsolicited help from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":39.51,"endTime":44.97,"body":"teenagers, gold stars, acronyms,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":45.15,"endTime":49.74,"body":"words that start with CI"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":45.15,"endTime":49.74,"body":"aggressive mice, manipulating"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":49.74,"endTime":56.19,"body":"your advisors, second spouses,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":49.74,"endTime":56.19,"body":"Mona Lisa, Quanta tube, rewiring"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":56.19,"endTime":61.29,"body":"your brain $1 million"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":56.19,"endTime":61.29,"body":"calculators and mod mod. We hope"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":61.29,"endTime":66.0,"body":"you enjoy this week's episode."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":61.29,"endTime":66.0,"body":"Now I got a pop quiz for you."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":66.09,"endTime":70.14,"body":"Oh, God already? We're 30"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":66.09,"endTime":70.14,"body":"seconds in to start ever not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":70.14,"endTime":72.21,"body":"complain? No, no, go ahead and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":70.14,"endTime":72.21,"body":"control me."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":72.24,"endTime":74.07,"body":"We've had three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":72.24,"endTime":74.07,"body":"episodes."},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":74.3,"endTime":77.03,"body":"Hi, everyone. This is"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":74.3,"endTime":77.03,"body":"Annie Patrick's kid. When I was"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":77.03,"endTime":80.33,"body":"talking to my dad about his"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":77.03,"endTime":80.33,"body":"silly little podcast, he told me"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":80.36,"endTime":83.18,"body":"oh, by the way, I made a little"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":80.36,"endTime":83.18,"body":"mistake. There's a fourth"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":83.18,"endTime":86.0,"body":"episode before this one. Turns"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":83.18,"endTime":86.0,"body":"out it's because he missed the"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":86.0,"endTime":89.36,"body":"deadline. As a teenager, I"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":86.0,"endTime":89.36,"body":"learned a lot from those around"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":89.36,"endTime":92.03,"body":"me. Now, if you excuse me, I'm"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":89.36,"endTime":92.03,"body":"gonna go play video games and"},{"speaker":"Annie","startTime":92.03,"endTime":93.53,"body":"not do my statistics homework."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":93.92,"endTime":96.92,"body":"The first was least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":93.92,"endTime":96.92,"body":"squares estimation, right? The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.92,"endTime":100.37,"body":"second was maximum likelihood"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.92,"endTime":100.37,"body":"the third was to stage least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.37,"endTime":104.36,"body":"squares. And the fourth was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.37,"endTime":104.36,"body":"partial least squares. When I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":104.36,"endTime":108.29,"body":"spent the four minutes this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":104.36,"endTime":108.29,"body":"morning on my back deck,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":108.71,"endTime":112.13,"body":"organizing in my head today's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":108.71,"endTime":112.13,"body":"episode, it's twice as much as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":112.13,"endTime":116.69,"body":"usual. It is twice as much as I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":112.13,"endTime":116.69,"body":"usually spend, I sought to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":116.72,"endTime":119.96,"body":"organizing features to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":116.72,"endTime":119.96,"body":"episodes that we've done. So the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":119.96,"endTime":124.4,"body":"pop quiz this morning, what are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":119.96,"endTime":124.4,"body":"the two organizing features of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":124.4,"endTime":126.65,"body":"our first four episodes. I mean,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":126.65,"endTime":129.59,"body":"one of them is that all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":126.65,"endTime":129.59,"body":"the things that we do in our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":129.59,"endTime":132.74,"body":"lives here, our statistical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":129.59,"endTime":132.74,"body":"lives are about understanding"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":132.74,"endTime":135.8,"body":"parameters, estimating"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":132.74,"endTime":135.8,"body":"parameters, and whether it's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":135.8,"endTime":139.52,"body":"least squares kind of framework,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":135.8,"endTime":139.52,"body":"or Fischer playing Calvin Ball,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":139.55,"endTime":142.49,"body":"switching up the rules and going"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":139.55,"endTime":142.49,"body":"into maximum likelihood. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":142.49,"endTime":144.77,"body":"then we talked about some of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":142.49,"endTime":144.77,"body":"shortcomings of maximum"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":144.77,"endTime":147.95,"body":"likelihood and how those might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":144.77,"endTime":147.95,"body":"be able to be addressed by some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":147.95,"endTime":150.29,"body":"strings of least squares,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":147.95,"endTime":150.29,"body":"specifically in the two stage"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":150.29,"endTime":152.48,"body":"least squares. So I guess one of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":150.29,"endTime":152.48,"body":"the themes is really about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":152.48,"endTime":155.15,"body":"estimation and all the different"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":152.48,"endTime":155.15,"body":"ways we can try and get at the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":155.15,"endTime":158.03,"body":"things that we care about those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":155.15,"endTime":158.03,"body":"parameters in the population."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":158.15,"endTime":160.91,"body":"You're exactly right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":158.15,"endTime":160.91,"body":"Thank you. You get your first"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":160.91,"endTime":164.27,"body":"gold star for the day. Okay,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":160.91,"endTime":164.27,"body":"it's probably the last one but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":164.3,"endTime":167.63,"body":"you'll get a gold star for the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":164.3,"endTime":167.63,"body":"day. What is the second"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":167.66,"endTime":171.29,"body":"organizing theme? I'm not sure I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":167.66,"endTime":171.29,"body":"mean, I can make something up."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.32,"endTime":176.48,"body":"I'll give you a hint. Okay, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.32,"endTime":176.48,"body":"compared Oh, well less PHYML to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":176.48,"endTime":178.04,"body":"SLS MIB SEM,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":178.22,"endTime":182.93,"body":"and pls I have it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":178.22,"endTime":182.93,"body":"dependent we are on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":182.96,"endTime":185.21,"body":"abbreviations and acronyms. Am I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":182.96,"endTime":185.21,"body":"getting closer?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":185.24,"endTime":190.04,"body":"Just acronyms what I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":185.24,"endTime":190.04,"body":"just said makes perfect sense."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":190.07,"endTime":194.09,"body":"Yeah, it leads to a very, very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":190.07,"endTime":194.09,"body":"small proportion of people who"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":194.15,"endTime":197.27,"body":"don't have a lot of friends no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":194.15,"endTime":197.27,"body":"social skills at all. These"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":197.27,"endTime":201.44,"body":"become nouns and proper noun"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":197.27,"endTime":201.44,"body":"zeven. Yeah. Oh, well last PHYML"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":201.44,"endTime":205.85,"body":"mivv. Sem and verbs we ml did we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":201.44,"endTime":205.85,"body":"OLS did I don't know if anybody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":205.85,"endTime":209.69,"body":"in the history of humankind has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":205.85,"endTime":209.69,"body":"said we ml didn't. Let's not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":209.69,"endTime":211.19,"body":"overplay our hand here."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":211.22,"endTime":212.39,"body":"You never validate me."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":212.48,"endTime":217.97,"body":"Give me a reason to and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":212.48,"endTime":217.97,"body":"I will. All right, we talk about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.0,"endTime":224.03,"body":"EFA, CFA,  SEM, MCMC estimation,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.0,"endTime":224.03,"body":"we should do an episode on that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":224.03,"endTime":226.67,"body":"Actually, that's pretty cool."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":224.03,"endTime":226.67,"body":"One of my favorite that just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":226.67,"endTime":231.41,"body":"rolls off the tongue is to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":226.67,"endTime":231.41,"body":"2PL-IRT. I mean it's a lyrical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":231.41,"endTime":232.94,"body":"that's Shakespearean."},{"speaker":"Shakespeare","startTime":234.71,"endTime":237.35,"body":"From claiming"},{"speaker":"Shakespeare","startTime":234.71,"endTime":237.35,"body":"Westfalen through my host, but"},{"speaker":"Shakespeare","startTime":237.35,"endTime":241.67,"body":"he would have no stomach to this"},{"speaker":"Shakespeare","startTime":237.35,"endTime":241.67,"body":"fight. Let him depart."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":242.6,"endTime":245.42,"body":"I have a true confession"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":242.6,"endTime":245.42,"body":"on the acronym front. I have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":245.42,"endTime":248.75,"body":"center here such as it is at the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":245.42,"endTime":248.75,"body":"University of Maryland called"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":248.75,"endTime":253.46,"body":"Silver CIO VR. And I was in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":248.75,"endTime":253.46,"body":"meeting with one of our Dean's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":253.46,"endTime":257.03,"body":"she was speaking to a group of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":253.46,"endTime":257.03,"body":"people saying we really need"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":257.03,"endTime":261.11,"body":"more initiatives around centers."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":257.03,"endTime":261.11,"body":"And so as she's talking, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":261.17,"endTime":266.57,"body":"started jotting down words that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":261.17,"endTime":266.57,"body":"started with C because center de"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":266.96,"endTime":271.73,"body":"and I came up with silver and it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":266.96,"endTime":271.73,"body":"took me the rest of a two hour"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":271.73,"endTime":275.45,"body":"meeting to find the words that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":271.73,"endTime":275.45,"body":"were close enough Center for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":275.45,"endTime":278.75,"body":"Integrated latent variable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":275.45,"endTime":278.75,"body":"research. The firm is silent."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":281.0,"endTime":284.9,"body":"Dammit silver sounded cool. I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":281.0,"endTime":284.9,"body":"even had a logo for it before I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":284.9,"endTime":288.74,"body":"had a mission or purpose of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":284.9,"endTime":288.74,"body":"center but that's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":288.74,"endTime":290.15,"body":"important stuff right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":290.18,"endTime":293.63,"body":"I had a logo done and done"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":290.18,"endTime":293.63,"body":"did the Dean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":293.63,"endTime":296.18,"body":"look at your yellow"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":293.63,"endTime":296.18,"body":"sticky and said so what is it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":296.18,"endTime":302.21,"body":"killed over? A kid Si Si is an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":296.18,"endTime":302.21,"body":"asset."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":303.2,"endTime":306.89,"body":"When you put an eye after"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":303.2,"endTime":306.89,"body":"a si in the English language, it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":306.89,"endTime":308.03,"body":"softens the SI"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":308.06,"endTime":311.75,"body":"give me one word that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":308.06,"endTime":311.75,"body":"follows that rule that begins"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":311.75,"endTime":315.86,"body":"with the SI city. Wow, that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":311.75,"endTime":315.86,"body":"didn't take long. Not at all."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.95,"endTime":318.08,"body":"All right, I'm gonna edit that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.95,"endTime":318.08,"body":"out because it makes me look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":318.08,"endTime":318.77,"body":"really stupid."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":319.28,"endTime":322.01,"body":"And he did edit it out."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":319.28,"endTime":322.01,"body":"And I put it right back in. It"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":322.01,"endTime":327.14,"body":"just felt like my civic duty to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":322.01,"endTime":327.14,"body":"circumvent Patrick. Well, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":327.14,"endTime":332.84,"body":"enjoy my cinnamon cider. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":327.14,"endTime":332.84,"body":"there are absolutely terrible"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":332.84,"endTime":337.07,"body":"acronyms. And I think if that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":332.84,"endTime":337.07,"body":"going to be a unifying theme, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":337.07,"endTime":340.04,"body":"don't have to look very far for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":337.07,"endTime":340.04,"body":"this. Because speaking of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":340.04,"endTime":342.53,"body":"terrible acronyms, we have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":340.04,"endTime":342.53,"body":"guest today,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":342.62,"endTime":346.58,"body":"we are very pleased to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":342.62,"endTime":346.58,"body":"welcome Dr. Dan Bauer from the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":346.58,"endTime":350.36,"body":"University of North Carolina at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":346.58,"endTime":350.36,"body":"Chapel Hill, who is singularly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":350.36,"endTime":355.64,"body":"responsible for possibly one of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":350.36,"endTime":355.64,"body":"the worst acronyms in our field."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":355.94,"endTime":360.32,"body":"It is logically pronounced move."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":355.94,"endTime":360.32,"body":"Welcome, Dan."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":360.38,"endTime":364.28,"body":"Thanks, guys. Really"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":360.38,"endTime":364.28,"body":"appreciate that introduction."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":365.42,"endTime":368.93,"body":"And I take some exception to the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":365.42,"endTime":368.93,"body":"word singularly."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":371.36,"endTime":374.99,"body":"Are you now going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":371.36,"endTime":374.99,"body":"defuse blame back on me as well?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":374.99,"endTime":378.05,"body":"Greg does this every time and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":374.99,"endTime":378.05,"body":"it's really frustrating, because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":378.05,"endTime":379.19,"body":"it's usually true."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":379.22,"endTime":380.36,"body":"You were the editor."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":382.64,"endTime":387.56,"body":"So we will get to this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":382.64,"endTime":387.56,"body":"in a minute. Dan is quantitative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":387.56,"endTime":391.61,"body":"psychologist, he is in the LL"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":387.56,"endTime":391.61,"body":"thurlestone, psychometric lab,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":391.64,"endTime":396.41,"body":"Dan and I go back more than 20"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":391.64,"endTime":396.41,"body":"years, a long, long way. It's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":396.41,"endTime":401.24,"body":"longer than either one of us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":396.41,"endTime":401.24,"body":"wants to ponder, do we have fun"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":401.24,"endTime":404.99,"body":"here with origin stories,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":401.24,"endTime":404.99,"body":"because I don't think one of us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":404.99,"endTime":408.44,"body":"in the field takes a straight"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":404.99,"endTime":408.44,"body":"line shot to whatever it is what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":408.44,"endTime":411.14,"body":"we're doing today, and you are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":408.44,"endTime":411.14,"body":"no exception, that my"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":411.14,"endTime":414.02,"body":"shot was probably as"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":411.14,"endTime":414.02,"body":"crooked as they get. I started"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":414.02,"endTime":417.5,"body":"out in developmental"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":414.02,"endTime":417.5,"body":"psychobiology working in a mouse"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":417.5,"endTime":421.01,"body":"lab. So I don't know how to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":417.5,"endTime":421.01,"body":"connect dots from a mouse lab to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":421.01,"endTime":424.46,"body":"a quantitative psychologist, I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":421.01,"endTime":424.46,"body":"got interested in growth"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":424.46,"endTime":429.17,"body":"modeling. And we were looking at"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":424.46,"endTime":429.17,"body":"micro genetic changes in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":429.17,"endTime":432.14,"body":"behavior happening through the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":429.17,"endTime":432.14,"body":"modification of developmental"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":432.14,"endTime":435.41,"body":"trajectories. So how do you get"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":432.14,"endTime":435.41,"body":"a low aggressive mouse versus a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":435.41,"endTime":437.99,"body":"high aggressive mouse is what"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":435.41,"endTime":437.99,"body":"maybe you can speed up the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":437.99,"endTime":440.12,"body":"development of aggressive"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":437.99,"endTime":440.12,"body":"behavior. Or maybe you can slow"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":440.12,"endTime":442.64,"body":"down the development of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":440.12,"endTime":442.64,"body":"aggressive behavior that kind of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":442.64,"endTime":444.71,"body":"got me interested in growth"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":442.64,"endTime":444.71,"body":"modeling. And I pretty quickly"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":444.71,"endTime":447.74,"body":"realized I was more interested"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":444.71,"endTime":447.74,"body":"in the models than the mice. But"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":447.74,"endTime":450.44,"body":"I happened to be a grad student"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":447.74,"endTime":450.44,"body":"at University of North Carolina,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":450.47,"endTime":454.43,"body":"and UNC has a really nice"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":450.47,"endTime":454.43,"body":"quantitative program. And I was"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":454.43,"endTime":457.37,"body":"just kind of taking the classes"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":454.43,"endTime":457.37,"body":"because I enjoyed them. And I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":457.37,"endTime":461.57,"body":"could find them applicable in my"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":457.37,"endTime":461.57,"body":"research. I thought, Oh, well,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":461.57,"endTime":466.16,"body":"maybe I could just get a masters"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":461.57,"endTime":466.16,"body":"and then leave and go do a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":466.16,"endTime":469.19,"body":"masters and biostats or"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":466.16,"endTime":469.19,"body":"something a real masters that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":469.19,"endTime":474.53,"body":"real Yeah, I'd like, like legit"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":469.19,"endTime":474.53,"body":"serious capital S. But then it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":474.53,"endTime":476.75,"body":"occurred to me that the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":474.53,"endTime":476.75,"body":"developmental program didn't"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":476.75,"endTime":480.47,"body":"actually require a master's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":476.75,"endTime":480.47,"body":"degree. And so I was like, maybe"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":480.47,"endTime":483.5,"body":"I'll just stop calling it a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":480.47,"endTime":483.5,"body":"master's, I'll start calling it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":483.5,"endTime":488.27,"body":"a dissertation and see if anyone"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":483.5,"endTime":488.27,"body":"objects and nobody did. Like, I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":488.27,"endTime":490.91,"body":"kind of got away with one I just"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":488.27,"endTime":490.91,"body":"like, well, and this will be my"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":490.91,"endTime":493.91,"body":"dissertation proposal, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":490.91,"endTime":493.91,"body":"everyone was like, okay, or I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":493.91,"endTime":498.32,"body":"guess so. And so I skipped the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":493.91,"endTime":498.32,"body":"masters and was able to get my"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":498.32,"endTime":502.34,"body":"PhD, as you probably not so"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":498.32,"endTime":502.34,"body":"fondly remember, Patrick, you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":502.34,"endTime":506.03,"body":"were a member of my committee."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":502.34,"endTime":506.03,"body":"And that was part of how we got"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":506.03,"endTime":509.27,"body":"to know each other aside from"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":506.03,"endTime":509.27,"body":"you hurling expletives at me"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":509.27,"endTime":514.22,"body":"during your classes. And so we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":509.27,"endTime":514.22,"body":"arranged for me to put in an RSA"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":514.22,"endTime":519.14,"body":"application to do a postdoc with"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":514.22,"endTime":519.14,"body":"yourself and with Ken Bolin. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":519.14,"endTime":522.26,"body":"that's how I kind of moved over"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":519.14,"endTime":522.26,"body":"to the dark side of quantitative"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":522.26,"endTime":523.16,"body":"methodology"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":523.34,"endTime":529.07,"body":"joining me together, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":523.34,"endTime":529.07,"body":"can rule but galaxy. I like the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":529.07,"endTime":532.76,"body":"professional development tip for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":529.07,"endTime":532.76,"body":"the day for grad students out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":532.76,"endTime":535.94,"body":"there who are currently working"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":532.76,"endTime":535.94,"body":"on your masters. Just start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":535.94,"endTime":539.24,"body":"calling it your dissertation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":535.94,"endTime":539.24,"body":"proposal, because I gotta tell"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":539.24,"endTime":544.07,"body":"you, advisors do not track where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":539.24,"endTime":544.07,"body":"you are in the program. Pro tip"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":544.07,"endTime":547.88,"body":"from Dan Bauer, just call your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":544.07,"endTime":547.88,"body":"masters the dissertation and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":547.88,"endTime":548.54,"body":"move on."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":548.6,"endTime":550.31,"body":"It's like nobody noticed."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":551.42,"endTime":554.27,"body":"So then where did you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":551.42,"endTime":554.27,"body":"go after the postdoc,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":554.3,"endTime":558.38,"body":"I took a system Professor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":554.3,"endTime":558.38,"body":"position at NC State University,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":558.41,"endTime":561.68,"body":"like a lot of people I had some"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":558.41,"endTime":561.68,"body":"family constraints. And so I was"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":561.68,"endTime":565.52,"body":"excited to have an opportunity"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":561.68,"endTime":565.52,"body":"to enter academia in the area,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":565.94,"endTime":569.36,"body":"didn't even have to move house"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":565.94,"endTime":569.36,"body":"just drove a little farther to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":569.36,"endTime":572.42,"body":"get to Raleigh in the morning."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":569.36,"endTime":572.42,"body":"And so I spent a couple of years"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":572.42,"endTime":577.07,"body":"at NC State University and then"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":572.42,"endTime":577.07,"body":"a position opened up at UNC"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":577.1,"endTime":579.95,"body":"I always make my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":577.1,"endTime":579.95,"body":"students say in one sentence,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":579.95,"endTime":583.61,"body":"describe what it is that you do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":579.95,"endTime":583.61,"body":"in the field. What is your one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":583.61,"endTime":584.27,"body":"sentence,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":584.39,"endTime":588.23,"body":"I am the director of the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":584.39,"endTime":588.23,"body":"Thurstone lab. So most of what I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":588.23,"endTime":593.69,"body":"do is manage budgets for small"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":588.23,"endTime":593.69,"body":"amounts of money and try to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":593.69,"endTime":596.87,"body":"convince my colleagues to teach"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":593.69,"endTime":596.87,"body":"the classes that need to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":596.87,"endTime":598.07,"body":"taught Dude,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":598.07,"endTime":601.49,"body":"this is really passive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":598.07,"endTime":601.49,"body":"aggressive because my computer"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":601.49,"endTime":605.66,"body":"died and Yesterday, I asked him"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":601.49,"endTime":605.66,"body":"if I could please have a couple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":605.66,"endTime":609.38,"body":"100 bucks to have it repaired."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":605.66,"endTime":609.38,"body":"And I still don't want to teach"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":609.38,"endTime":611.87,"body":"that undergrad class. So if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":609.38,"endTime":611.87,"body":"there's something that you want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":611.87,"endTime":614.75,"body":"to talk about, let's have it."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":611.87,"endTime":614.75,"body":"No,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":614.78,"endTime":618.47,"body":"no, nothing. I was just"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":614.78,"endTime":618.47,"body":"trying to make the point that I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":618.5,"endTime":622.19,"body":"ended advertently transition"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":618.5,"endTime":622.19,"body":"into a kind of administrative"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":622.19,"endTime":625.82,"body":"role where my day to day tends"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":622.19,"endTime":625.82,"body":"to be much less exciting in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":625.82,"endTime":629.12,"body":"terms of like research and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":625.82,"endTime":629.12,"body":"quantitative methods. It's more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":629.12,"endTime":632.84,"body":"like, oh, we have this really"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":629.12,"endTime":632.84,"body":"tiny pot of money. How can I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":632.84,"endTime":635.24,"body":"divide it up? So everybody feels"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":632.84,"endTime":635.24,"body":"it's fair."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":636.17,"endTime":640.01,"body":"I will just insert here"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":636.17,"endTime":640.01,"body":"that as Patrick's second spouse,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":640.01,"endTime":643.94,"body":"I like watching you to fight."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":640.01,"endTime":643.94,"body":"That petty of me,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":644.0,"endTime":648.89,"body":"it is not okay, because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":644.0,"endTime":648.89,"body":"I have a pair of teenagers and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":648.89,"endTime":652.76,"body":"they refer to Dan at the dining"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":648.89,"endTime":652.76,"body":"room table when we're talking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":652.76,"endTime":655.94,"body":"about like werkstoffe or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":652.76,"endTime":655.94,"body":"whatever they will refer to Dan"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.94,"endTime":659.87,"body":"is first wife and Greg is second"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.94,"endTime":659.87,"body":"wife. I want to be trophy wife"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":659.87,"endTime":664.88,"body":"can I be trophy wife?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":659.87,"endTime":664.88,"body":"Awkward silence."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":666.08,"endTime":670.46,"body":"Thank you so much for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":666.08,"endTime":670.46,"body":"having the lack of judgment to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":670.46,"endTime":675.23,"body":"join us this morning. Very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":670.46,"endTime":675.23,"body":"briefly, I will clarify this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":675.23,"endTime":678.02,"body":"whole acronym thing we did a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":675.23,"endTime":678.02,"body":"special issue was published"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":678.02,"endTime":682.55,"body":"insight methods in 2009,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":678.02,"endTime":682.55,"body":"dedicated to integrative data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":682.55,"endTime":686.36,"body":"analysis, and it's the art of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":682.55,"endTime":686.36,"body":"combining multiple independent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":686.39,"endTime":690.11,"body":"samples and then fitting models"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":686.39,"endTime":690.11,"body":"to the joint sample. I was the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":690.11,"endTime":693.83,"body":"guest editor for this special"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":690.11,"endTime":693.83,"body":"issue. And I handled Dan's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":693.83,"endTime":698.54,"body":"paper. It was in part titled"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":693.83,"endTime":698.54,"body":"moderated nonlinear factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":698.54,"endTime":703.79,"body":"analysis M and LFA. In handling"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":698.54,"endTime":703.79,"body":"the paper and the reviews, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":703.79,"endTime":706.82,"body":"would like to say I wrote in an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":703.79,"endTime":706.82,"body":"editorial letter back she shoved"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":706.82,"endTime":709.76,"body":"my chair back and leaned out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":706.82,"endTime":709.76,"body":"into the hall and screamed,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":709.88,"endTime":713.84,"body":"nobody can pronounce no fun."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":709.88,"endTime":713.84,"body":"There was about a 10 second"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":713.84,"endTime":719.39,"body":"silence, and he yelled back,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":713.84,"endTime":719.39,"body":"make it mono Leafa. I waited"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":719.39,"endTime":723.56,"body":"about 10 seconds and yelled"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":719.39,"endTime":723.56,"body":"back. MNLF A is fine. And I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":723.56,"endTime":728.39,"body":"gotta tell you about that I see"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":723.56,"endTime":728.39,"body":"as one of my greatest failures."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":728.6,"endTime":729.59,"body":"And that's saying"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":728.6,"endTime":729.59,"body":"something."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":732.29,"endTime":736.49,"body":"This could have been a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":732.29,"endTime":736.49,"body":"discussion about the Mona Lisa,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":736.58,"endTime":740.66,"body":"I may have authorized the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":736.58,"endTime":740.66,"body":"world's worst acronym. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":740.66,"endTime":741.5,"body":"created it."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":741.65,"endTime":746.24,"body":"I think there's a Sinatra"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":741.65,"endTime":746.24,"body":"song that goes with that. Did it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":746.93,"endTime":750.53,"body":"my way."},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":753.08,"endTime":756.32,"body":"I'd like to claim"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":753.08,"endTime":756.32,"body":"credit. But actually, MoNoLeFa"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":756.32,"endTime":759.11,"body":"came from a conference"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":756.32,"endTime":759.11,"body":"participant when I was doing"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":759.11,"endTime":762.44,"body":"some preliminary presentations"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":759.11,"endTime":762.44,"body":"of this stuff has like yeah, now"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":762.44,"endTime":765.29,"body":"it's kind of a hard to pronounce"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":762.44,"endTime":765.29,"body":"acronym and a participant came"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":765.29,"endTime":768.98,"body":"up. No, he's great. You call it"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":765.29,"endTime":768.98,"body":"Mona Lisa. I was like that'll"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":768.98,"endTime":770.36,"body":"get under Patrick skin."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":772.52,"endTime":774.74,"body":"I think we should"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":772.52,"endTime":774.74,"body":"contextualize why we invited"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":774.74,"endTime":779.36,"body":"your first wife here. So over"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":774.74,"endTime":779.36,"body":"the last, you know, over the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":779.36,"endTime":781.58,"body":"last three seasons, because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":779.36,"endTime":781.58,"body":"Patrick and I have been doing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":781.58,"endTime":784.79,"body":"this podcast for quite some time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":781.58,"endTime":784.79,"body":"together. It's an activity that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":784.79,"endTime":788.24,"body":"we share for many, many hours"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":784.79,"endTime":788.24,"body":"each week. And even over the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":788.24,"endTime":791.09,"body":"summer, when he comes to my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":788.24,"endTime":791.09,"body":"house and hangs out. And we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":791.09,"endTime":796.52,"body":"a lot of fun. We have done an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":791.09,"endTime":796.52,"body":"episode on invariance testing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":796.52,"endTime":799.31,"body":"and the challenges associated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":796.52,"endTime":799.31,"body":"with that we've done an episode"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":799.31,"endTime":802.85,"body":"on moderation. And we had an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":799.31,"endTime":802.85,"body":"episode on integrative data"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":802.85,"endTime":806.87,"body":"analysis. Ida, as you cool kids"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":802.85,"endTime":806.87,"body":"call it their unifying themes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":806.87,"endTime":810.23,"body":"associated with those three"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":806.87,"endTime":810.23,"body":"things that I will concede lead"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":810.23,"endTime":813.23,"body":"really nicely into the work that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":810.23,"endTime":813.23,"body":"you did. And so we thought it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":813.23,"endTime":815.39,"body":"would be really good for you to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":813.23,"endTime":815.39,"body":"come and talk with us about some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":815.39,"endTime":822.23,"body":"of your work on m mu. Dang it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":815.39,"endTime":822.23,"body":"moving. I'll get it, I will get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":822.23,"endTime":825.83,"body":"it. So can you start to get a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":822.23,"endTime":825.83,"body":"situated within the moderated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":825.83,"endTime":829.04,"body":"nonlinear factor analysis world"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":825.83,"endTime":829.04,"body":"in terms of how it ties to some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":829.04,"endTime":829.7,"body":"of those things"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":829.73,"endTime":833.84,"body":"before that. If I could"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":829.73,"endTime":833.84,"body":"tell one small anecdote. I don't"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":833.84,"endTime":837.02,"body":"know if you guys have mentioned"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":833.84,"endTime":837.02,"body":"map before, but it's a secret"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":837.02,"endTime":839.81,"body":"cabal of quantitative"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":837.02,"endTime":839.81,"body":"methodologists who meet once a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":839.81,"endTime":843.41,"body":"year, not long after you guys"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":839.81,"endTime":843.41,"body":"started the podcast, Katherine"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":843.41,"endTime":846.71,"body":"Mason, I think has been a guest"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":843.41,"endTime":846.71,"body":"before came up and said, Are you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":846.71,"endTime":848.66,"body":"jealous that Patrick Stewart"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":846.71,"endTime":848.66,"body":"this?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":851.84,"endTime":857.39,"body":"And I said, you know, actually,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":851.84,"endTime":857.39,"body":"no, it's okay. Patrick can have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":857.39,"endTime":862.04,"body":"other friends. And you know,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":857.39,"endTime":862.04,"body":"sometimes it's kind of nice,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":862.04,"endTime":864.5,"body":"because there might be things"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":862.04,"endTime":864.5,"body":"Patrick wants to do with his"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":864.5,"endTime":867.56,"body":"other friend that I didn't"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":864.5,"endTime":867.56,"body":"really want to do anyways."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":868.04,"endTime":869.9,"body":"Deanna know you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":868.04,"endTime":869.9,"body":"doing a thing. We haven't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":869.9,"endTime":872.75,"body":"started it yet. But it's going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":869.9,"endTime":872.75,"body":"to involve some live stream"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":872.75,"endTime":877.73,"body":"teaching on YouTube and proposed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":872.75,"endTime":877.73,"body":"yesterday that we call it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":878.06,"endTime":878.99,"body":"Quantitube."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":881.96,"endTime":884.51,"body":"But it's totally different"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":881.96,"endTime":884.51,"body":"because there's video."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":886.13,"endTime":888.44,"body":"What we're going to see"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":886.13,"endTime":888.44,"body":"in the conversation as your work"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":888.44,"endTime":891.68,"body":"is huge here. I second that. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":888.44,"endTime":891.68,"body":"think that this is one of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":891.68,"endTime":894.74,"body":"most significant contributions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":891.68,"endTime":894.74,"body":"to how we think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":894.74,"endTime":898.01,"body":"psychometric modeling and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":894.74,"endTime":898.01,"body":"scoring. And I really do feel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.01,"endTime":901.94,"body":"like in 10 or 20 years you This"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.01,"endTime":901.94,"body":"is gonna be a routine way of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":901.94,"endTime":906.29,"body":"thinking about it. Where did the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":901.94,"endTime":906.29,"body":"first genesis of the idea come"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":906.29,"endTime":908.42,"body":"from? And then how did you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":906.29,"endTime":908.42,"body":"pursue it?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":908.48,"endTime":911.06,"body":"I feel like there are kind"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":908.48,"endTime":911.06,"body":"of multiple threads that kind of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":911.06,"endTime":916.22,"body":"came together with that. So I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":911.06,"endTime":916.22,"body":"mean, the immediate Genesis was"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":916.25,"endTime":921.59,"body":"that you, Patrick and Andrea has"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":916.25,"endTime":921.59,"body":"song and myself and a bunch of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":921.59,"endTime":924.47,"body":"grad students and postdocs were"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":921.59,"endTime":924.47,"body":"involved in this integrative"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":924.47,"endTime":927.92,"body":"data analysis project. In"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":924.47,"endTime":927.92,"body":"integrative data analysis,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":927.92,"endTime":930.89,"body":"there's often a lot of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":927.92,"endTime":930.89,"body":"evaluating of differential item"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":930.89,"endTime":933.47,"body":"functioning, right, you have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":930.89,"endTime":933.47,"body":"slightly different measures of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":933.47,"endTime":935.93,"body":"the same thing in different"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":933.47,"endTime":935.93,"body":"studies. And you want to see if"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":935.93,"endTime":938.84,"body":"you can combine those and to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":935.93,"endTime":938.84,"body":"able to combine them, you have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":938.84,"endTime":941.39,"body":"to demonstrate you have enough"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":938.84,"endTime":941.39,"body":"similarity and measurement that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":941.39,"endTime":944.09,"body":"the scores are comparable. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":941.39,"endTime":944.09,"body":"the traditional approaches to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":944.09,"endTime":946.7,"body":"evaluating differential item"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":944.09,"endTime":946.7,"body":"functioning. And measurement"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":946.7,"endTime":949.88,"body":"invariance just didn't work"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":946.7,"endTime":949.88,"body":"wonderfully in that context,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":949.88,"endTime":953.3,"body":"because they're set up for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":949.88,"endTime":953.3,"body":"groups that can kind of work if"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":953.3,"endTime":955.82,"body":"you just like saying, well,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":953.3,"endTime":955.82,"body":"let's compare study one to study"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":955.82,"endTime":959.15,"body":"two. But what if you also have a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":955.82,"endTime":959.15,"body":"really broad age range, which"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":959.15,"endTime":961.79,"body":"was the case that we were"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":959.15,"endTime":961.79,"body":"looking at, and you think there"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":961.79,"endTime":965.42,"body":"might also be some age effects"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":961.79,"endTime":965.42,"body":"running around in there where"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":965.42,"endTime":968.75,"body":"measurement is not the same at"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":965.42,"endTime":968.75,"body":"all ages. And what if you also"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":968.75,"endTime":971.33,"body":"think that there could be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":968.75,"endTime":971.33,"body":"measurement differences between"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":971.36,"endTime":974.57,"body":"boys versus girls. And so you've"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":971.36,"endTime":974.57,"body":"actually got these multiple"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":974.57,"endTime":978.08,"body":"dimensions over which you need"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":974.57,"endTime":978.08,"body":"to evaluate measurement"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":978.08,"endTime":981.17,"body":"invariance, one of which is"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":978.08,"endTime":981.17,"body":"continuous age. And the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":981.17,"endTime":983.84,"body":"traditional methodology all"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":981.17,"endTime":983.84,"body":"assumes that you have grouping"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":983.84,"endTime":986.21,"body":"variables, and you're kind of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":983.84,"endTime":986.21,"body":"looking at one at a time, maybe"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":986.21,"endTime":989.42,"body":"you could sort across to, but"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":986.21,"endTime":989.42,"body":"you're pretty limited in terms"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":989.42,"endTime":992.51,"body":"of enamel go beyond a single"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":989.42,"endTime":992.51,"body":"categorical grouping variable."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":992.87,"endTime":995.72,"body":"That's a problem that needs to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":992.87,"endTime":995.72,"body":"be solved. If we can't do it the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":995.72,"endTime":999.41,"body":"way that would be optimal, where"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":995.72,"endTime":999.41,"body":"we look at study differences, we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":999.41,"endTime":1002.2,"body":"look at sex differences, we look"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":999.41,"endTime":1002.2,"body":"at age differences"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1002.44,"endTime":1006.85,"body":"simultaneously and retaining age"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1002.44,"endTime":1006.85,"body":"as a continuous variable. If we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1006.85,"endTime":1009.43,"body":"can't do that, using the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1006.85,"endTime":1009.43,"body":"traditional methodology, then"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1009.46,"endTime":1013.48,"body":"let's solve that problem. I was"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1009.46,"endTime":1013.48,"body":"in a position based on other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1013.48,"endTime":1017.2,"body":"stuff I'd been doing at the time"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1013.48,"endTime":1017.2,"body":"to see a potential solution to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1017.2,"endTime":1020.98,"body":"that problem. Around that time,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1017.2,"endTime":1020.98,"body":"I don't know maybe like the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1020.98,"endTime":1024.91,"body":"early 2000s, there was a lot of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1020.98,"endTime":1024.91,"body":"interest in the relationships"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1024.91,"endTime":1028.09,"body":"between multi level models and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1024.91,"endTime":1028.09,"body":"factor models. There's like a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1028.09,"endTime":1031.39,"body":"whole era Symposium on this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1028.09,"endTime":1031.39,"body":"where they were showing how"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1031.42,"endTime":1035.14,"body":"multilevel logistic regression"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1031.42,"endTime":1035.14,"body":"is sort of like a rush model."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1035.14,"endTime":1037.99,"body":"And you can kind of get a two PL"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1035.14,"endTime":1037.99,"body":"in there if you do some extra"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1037.99,"endTime":1041.38,"body":"stuff. And then some work I did"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1037.99,"endTime":1041.38,"body":"with you, Patrick, on growth"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1041.38,"endTime":1043.69,"body":"modeling, you can do growth"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1041.38,"endTime":1043.69,"body":"models as multi level models,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1043.69,"endTime":1046.03,"body":"you can do growth models, or"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1043.69,"endTime":1046.03,"body":"structural equation models, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1046.03,"endTime":1049.18,"body":"how can we extend beyond the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1046.03,"endTime":1049.18,"body":"growth setting to other kinds of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1049.18,"endTime":1052.15,"body":"multi level models being like"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1049.18,"endTime":1052.15,"body":"structural equation models, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1052.15,"endTime":1055.54,"body":"so my head was kind of in that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1052.15,"endTime":1055.54,"body":"space of well, we can think of a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1055.54,"endTime":1059.38,"body":"latent variable model as the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1055.54,"endTime":1059.38,"body":"same as a multi level model. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1059.38,"endTime":1063.61,"body":"I've been playing around with a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1059.38,"endTime":1063.61,"body":"SAS procedure proc NL mixed,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1063.82,"endTime":1068.77,"body":"which allows you to fit things"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1063.82,"endTime":1068.77,"body":"like two PL models as nonlinear"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1068.77,"endTime":1071.59,"body":"multi level models. So I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1068.77,"endTime":1071.59,"body":"thought, Well, okay, this NL mix"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1071.59,"endTime":1073.75,"body":"procedure is incredibly"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1071.59,"endTime":1073.75,"body":"flexible. We don't have to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1073.75,"endTime":1078.79,"body":"specify every item as a binary"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1073.75,"endTime":1078.79,"body":"item, like in a two PL model, we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1078.79,"endTime":1080.89,"body":"could have different"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1078.79,"endTime":1080.89,"body":"distributions for different"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1080.89,"endTime":1085.09,"body":"items. And it's flexible enough"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1080.89,"endTime":1085.09,"body":"that we can specify that the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1085.09,"endTime":1089.29,"body":"parameters, associating those"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1085.09,"endTime":1089.29,"body":"items to the factors could be a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1089.29,"endTime":1091.72,"body":"function of some external"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1089.29,"endTime":1091.72,"body":"variable. If that external"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1091.72,"endTime":1095.41,"body":"variable is a binary predictor,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1091.72,"endTime":1095.41,"body":"like you're in study one versus"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1095.41,"endTime":1098.11,"body":"study two, then it's just like a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1095.41,"endTime":1098.11,"body":"multiple groups model. But if"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1098.11,"endTime":1101.05,"body":"it's age, all of a sudden,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1098.11,"endTime":1101.05,"body":"you've got diff as a function of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1101.05,"endTime":1104.56,"body":"a continuous variable. And you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1101.05,"endTime":1104.56,"body":"could put more than one of these"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1104.59,"endTime":1108.13,"body":"into those equations. That's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1104.59,"endTime":1108.13,"body":"sort of where I started with"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1108.13,"endTime":1111.94,"body":"seeing, Oh, I've got this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1108.13,"endTime":1111.94,"body":"flexible procedure I can use"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1111.94,"endTime":1114.94,"body":"where I can specify the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1111.94,"endTime":1114.94,"body":"likelihood by like, literally"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1114.94,"endTime":1117.79,"body":"looking up on Wikipedia, what's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1114.94,"endTime":1117.79,"body":"the negative binomial"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1117.79,"endTime":1120.55,"body":"likelihood? Oh, here it is, I'll"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1117.79,"endTime":1120.55,"body":"just write it into this AST. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1120.0,"endTime":1124.62,"body":"to clarify, NLMIXED was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1120.0,"endTime":1124.62,"body":"created by Satan himself."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1125.94,"endTime":1129.39,"body":"It's got a learning curve"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1125.94,"endTime":1129.39,"body":"to it, for sure. And I think it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1129.39,"endTime":1132.3,"body":"was Jack McArdle who said, Oh,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1129.39,"endTime":1132.3,"body":"and all mixes an amazing"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1132.3,"endTime":1135.84,"body":"program, as long as you already"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1132.3,"endTime":1135.84,"body":"know the answer before you run"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1135.84,"endTime":1139.08,"body":"it, because you have to give it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1135.84,"endTime":1139.08,"body":"really good start values to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1139.35,"endTime":1143.19,"body":"actually get a solution. But it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1139.35,"endTime":1143.19,"body":"provided a very flexible"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1143.19,"endTime":1146.73,"body":"framework. So all that thinking"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1143.19,"endTime":1146.73,"body":"got me to a place where I was"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1146.73,"endTime":1149.22,"body":"like, Well, I'd really like to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1146.73,"endTime":1149.22,"body":"do this. And here's a way I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1149.22,"endTime":1152.88,"body":"could implement this using"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1149.22,"endTime":1152.88,"body":"existing software by sort of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1152.88,"endTime":1155.79,"body":"just drawing on that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1152.88,"endTime":1155.79,"body":"correspondence between what we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1155.79,"endTime":1159.24,"body":"think of as random effects or"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1155.79,"endTime":1159.24,"body":"multiple models and traditional"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1159.24,"endTime":1162.81,"body":"confirmatory factor IRT types of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1159.24,"endTime":1162.81,"body":"models. So I had that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1162.81,"endTime":1165.18,"body":"flexibility. I thought, well, we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1162.81,"endTime":1165.18,"body":"can solve the problem with that."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1165.18,"endTime":1168.3,"body":"And sure enough, if you specify"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1165.18,"endTime":1168.3,"body":"it and you let it run for like,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1168.33,"endTime":1172.77,"body":"20 days, you get an answer. As"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1168.33,"endTime":1172.77,"body":"time went on, it became possible"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1172.77,"endTime":1176.64,"body":"to implement these models in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1172.77,"endTime":1176.64,"body":"more efficient software. So like"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1176.64,"endTime":1180.0,"body":"open MX can fit these models and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1176.64,"endTime":1180.0,"body":"plus can fit these models and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1180.0,"endTime":1182.55,"body":"much more efficiently. And that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1180.0,"endTime":1182.55,"body":"made it possible to do more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1182.55,"endTime":1184.5,"body":"research on these kinds of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1182.55,"endTime":1184.5,"body":"models."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1184.65,"endTime":1187.05,"body":"One of the things that I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1184.65,"endTime":1187.05,"body":"love about this and about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1187.05,"endTime":1191.01,"body":"statistics in general is that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1187.05,"endTime":1191.01,"body":"often strive for the bigger"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1191.01,"endTime":1194.07,"body":"umbrella, right? We strive for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1191.01,"endTime":1194.07,"body":"that model and take some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1194.07,"endTime":1198.12,"body":"arrogance in doing so by saying,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1194.07,"endTime":1198.12,"body":"well your model is just a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1198.12,"endTime":1202.62,"body":"special case of my model. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1198.12,"endTime":1202.62,"body":"what you have done with this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1202.74,"endTime":1207.18,"body":"thing minima is you have created"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1202.74,"endTime":1207.18,"body":"an umbrella that's fairly broad."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1207.18,"endTime":1210.36,"body":"And I absolutely love that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1207.18,"endTime":1210.36,"body":"Let's just start with something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1210.36,"endTime":1214.89,"body":"simple like a two group, multi"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1210.36,"endTime":1214.89,"body":"group confirmatory factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1214.89,"endTime":1218.28,"body":"analysis, can you tell us how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1214.89,"endTime":1218.28,"body":"the two group model is a special"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1218.28,"endTime":1221.16,"body":"case of that, and then broaden"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1218.28,"endTime":1221.16,"body":"it out for us"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1221.22,"endTime":1223.68,"body":"in that two group model,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1221.22,"endTime":1223.68,"body":"you got sample one and sample"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1223.68,"endTime":1226.11,"body":"two, right, and you've collected"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1223.68,"endTime":1226.11,"body":"data on both of them. And the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1226.11,"endTime":1228.51,"body":"traditional way of analyzing"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1226.11,"endTime":1228.51,"body":"that is to say, I'm going to get"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1228.51,"endTime":1231.21,"body":"a covariance matrix for sample"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1228.51,"endTime":1231.21,"body":"one and a covariance matrix for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1231.21,"endTime":1233.79,"body":"sample two. And I'm going to see"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1231.21,"endTime":1233.79,"body":"if the same measurement"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1233.79,"endTime":1236.4,"body":"structure reproduces the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1233.79,"endTime":1236.4,"body":"covariance matrix in both"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1236.4,"endTime":1239.52,"body":"groups, right? So can I have the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1236.4,"endTime":1239.52,"body":"same factor loadings or not, we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1239.52,"endTime":1242.49,"body":"can either constrain those"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1239.52,"endTime":1242.49,"body":"factor loadings to be the same,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1242.64,"endTime":1244.98,"body":"or we can let them be different."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1242.64,"endTime":1244.98,"body":"If they're different from one"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1244.98,"endTime":1246.9,"body":"another, then we'll get a factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1244.98,"endTime":1246.9,"body":"loading for sample one, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1246.9,"endTime":1249.93,"body":"we'll get a factor loading for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1246.9,"endTime":1249.93,"body":"sample two. And we can test"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1249.96,"endTime":1252.33,"body":"whether they need to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1249.96,"endTime":1252.33,"body":"different or not using a variety"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1252.33,"endTime":1255.12,"body":"of approaches out in the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1252.33,"endTime":1255.12,"body":"literature for how to determine"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1255.12,"endTime":1258.15,"body":"whether those differences need"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1255.12,"endTime":1258.15,"body":"to be there or not. And the MNLF"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1258.15,"endTime":1260.97,"body":"A, it takes a slightly different"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1258.15,"endTime":1260.97,"body":"perspective on it, where it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1260.97,"endTime":1264.18,"body":"says, Okay, we're going to have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1260.97,"endTime":1264.18,"body":"a reference point. So you could"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1264.18,"endTime":1267.0,"body":"choose sample one, or sample two"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1264.18,"endTime":1267.0,"body":"to be the reference. And for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1267.0,"endTime":1269.61,"body":"that sample, we're going to get"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1267.0,"endTime":1269.61,"body":"a baseline estimate of what"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1269.61,"endTime":1271.95,"body":"those parameters might be. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1269.61,"endTime":1271.95,"body":"there's going to be a factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1271.95,"endTime":1275.1,"body":"loading for sample one. And then"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1271.95,"endTime":1275.1,"body":"in sample two, we can either"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1275.13,"endTime":1277.5,"body":"just have that same factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1275.13,"endTime":1277.5,"body":"loading, which would be the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1277.5,"endTime":1281.7,"body":"invariance, or we can estimate a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1277.5,"endTime":1281.7,"body":"difference, right, so we're not"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1281.7,"endTime":1283.92,"body":"going to estimate the factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1281.7,"endTime":1283.92,"body":"loading sample two directly,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1283.92,"endTime":1285.9,"body":"we're going to estimate the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1283.92,"endTime":1285.9,"body":"difference of the factor loading"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1285.9,"endTime":1288.78,"body":"for sample two relative to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1285.9,"endTime":1288.78,"body":"sample one. So essentially, what"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1288.78,"endTime":1291.33,"body":"we're doing is sort of building"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1288.78,"endTime":1291.33,"body":"an equation for what the factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1291.33,"endTime":1294.48,"body":"loading looks like in any given"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1291.33,"endTime":1294.48,"body":"sample. And sample one is just"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1294.48,"endTime":1297.51,"body":"the baseline value in sample"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1294.48,"endTime":1297.51,"body":"two, it's a baseline value plus"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1297.54,"endTime":1300.66,"body":"perhaps a difference from that."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1297.54,"endTime":1300.66,"body":"Well, when you start to think of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1300.66,"endTime":1303.87,"body":"it as an equation for the factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1300.66,"endTime":1303.87,"body":"loading, now you can start to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1303.87,"endTime":1306.87,"body":"say, well, what if I wanted to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1303.87,"endTime":1306.87,"body":"put in a continuous variable?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1307.14,"endTime":1310.08,"body":"Right? What if I wanted to put"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1307.14,"endTime":1310.08,"body":"in Ah, okay, well, now your"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1310.08,"endTime":1313.35,"body":"baseline loading is going to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1310.08,"endTime":1313.35,"body":"for age zero, and then you're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1313.35,"endTime":1316.62,"body":"going to have some potential"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1313.35,"endTime":1316.62,"body":"change in that factor loading as"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1316.62,"endTime":1319.68,"body":"age goes up. So for each one"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1316.62,"endTime":1319.68,"body":"unit increase at age, we might"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1319.68,"endTime":1322.53,"body":"get a so many units increase in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1319.68,"endTime":1322.53,"body":"the factor loading, because it's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1322.53,"endTime":1326.67,"body":"an equation now we can also have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1322.53,"endTime":1326.67,"body":"more than one thing in that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1326.67,"endTime":1330.93,"body":"equation. So we could have one"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1326.67,"endTime":1330.93,"body":"variable could be the study that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1330.93,"endTime":1333.51,"body":"someone came from another"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1330.93,"endTime":1333.51,"body":"variable could be the age of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1333.51,"endTime":1336.78,"body":"that person, and other variable"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1333.51,"endTime":1336.78,"body":"could be their biological sex."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1337.29,"endTime":1340.5,"body":"And we could even have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1337.29,"endTime":1340.5,"body":"interactions or curvilinear"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1340.5,"endTime":1344.55,"body":"effects. So maybe the age effect"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1340.5,"endTime":1344.55,"body":"on factor loading is not linear,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1344.61,"endTime":1347.52,"body":"maybe it's actually curved. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1344.61,"endTime":1347.52,"body":"so once we start to think of it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1347.52,"endTime":1350.25,"body":"in terms of an equation, it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1347.52,"endTime":1350.25,"body":"really opens up the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1350.25,"endTime":1353.64,"body":"possibilities to do lots of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1350.25,"endTime":1353.64,"body":"things that we wouldn't have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1353.64,"endTime":1356.19,"body":"thought of, in the two group"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1353.64,"endTime":1356.19,"body":"case, right? And the two group"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1356.19,"endTime":1358.53,"body":"case, we've got a covariance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1356.19,"endTime":1358.53,"body":"matrix in sample one, and we get"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1358.53,"endTime":1360.6,"body":"a factor learning, we've got a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1358.53,"endTime":1360.6,"body":"covariance matrix and sample"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1360.6,"endTime":1362.7,"body":"two, and we get another factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1360.6,"endTime":1362.7,"body":"learning and can they be equal?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1362.7,"endTime":1365.46,"body":"Or do they need to be different,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1362.7,"endTime":1365.46,"body":"but once we build an equation"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1365.46,"endTime":1369.0,"body":"for it, now we kind of open the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1365.46,"endTime":1369.0,"body":"doors to lots of possibilities."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1369.3,"endTime":1372.36,"body":"So that's kind of how it at"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1369.3,"endTime":1372.36,"body":"least in my mind sort of scales"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1372.36,"endTime":1375.66,"body":"from that multiple group setting"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1372.36,"endTime":1375.66,"body":"is it sort of reframes it in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1375.66,"endTime":1379.05,"body":"terms of equations for the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1375.66,"endTime":1379.05,"body":"parameters, and then you build"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1379.05,"endTime":1381.63,"body":"out those equations. And if the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1379.05,"endTime":1381.63,"body":"only predictor in that equation"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1381.63,"endTime":1384.33,"body":"is a binary or a grouping"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1381.63,"endTime":1384.33,"body":"variable, then you're right back"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1384.33,"endTime":1386.37,"body":"in that MultiSample two group"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1384.33,"endTime":1386.37,"body":"case,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1386.46,"endTime":1389.91,"body":"if you really only had a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1386.46,"endTime":1389.91,"body":"binary predictor, so if you were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1389.91,"endTime":1393.09,"body":"doing the equivalent of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1389.91,"endTime":1393.09,"body":"invariance testing across two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1393.09,"endTime":1395.58,"body":"groups, kids who identify as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1393.09,"endTime":1395.58,"body":"male kids who identify as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1395.58,"endTime":1399.18,"body":"female, for example, and you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1395.58,"endTime":1399.18,"body":"take the approach that you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1399.18,"endTime":1401.97,"body":"talking about, and you build"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1399.18,"endTime":1401.97,"body":"this predictor, in as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1401.97,"endTime":1404.82,"body":"predictor of the loading will,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1401.97,"endTime":1404.82,"body":"the solution that you get out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1404.85,"endTime":1408.36,"body":"literally be identical to what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1404.85,"endTime":1408.36,"body":"you would get out of a multiple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1408.36,"endTime":1408.6,"body":"group,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1408.63,"endTime":1410.76,"body":"you're gonna get exactly"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1408.63,"endTime":1410.76,"body":"the same parameter estimates"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1410.76,"endTime":1414.33,"body":"exactly the same solution. The"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1410.76,"endTime":1414.33,"body":"one thing that MLFA won't give"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1414.33,"endTime":1417.63,"body":"you, though, is all the fit"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1414.33,"endTime":1417.63,"body":"statistics. And it's because"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1417.66,"endTime":1419.82,"body":"imagine if instead of the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1417.66,"endTime":1419.82,"body":"grouping variable, you have a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1419.82,"endTime":1423.51,"body":"continuous variable. Now you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1419.82,"endTime":1423.51,"body":"don't have groups within which"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1423.51,"endTime":1426.21,"body":"you can calculate covariance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1423.51,"endTime":1426.21,"body":"matrices and evaluate fit,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1426.21,"endTime":1429.18,"body":"because every unique age is"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1426.21,"endTime":1429.18,"body":"going to have its own unique"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1429.18,"endTime":1432.0,"body":"model implied covariance matrix."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1429.18,"endTime":1432.0,"body":"So you don't have those same"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1432.0,"endTime":1436.02,"body":"tests of model fit as you would"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1432.0,"endTime":1436.02,"body":"in the multi sample sem the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1436.02,"endTime":1437.07,"body":"traditional way of doing it,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1437.13,"endTime":1439.68,"body":"I think I live without the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1437.13,"endTime":1439.68,"body":"fit, at least on the principle"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1439.68,"endTime":1443.52,"body":"that if the model fit reasonably"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1439.68,"endTime":1443.52,"body":"well, without you exploiting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1443.52,"endTime":1446.37,"body":"these interactions, then the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1443.52,"endTime":1446.37,"body":"interactions in my mind can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1446.37,"endTime":1449.49,"body":"maybe only make things even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1446.37,"endTime":1449.49,"body":"better. Is that reasonable? I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1449.49,"endTime":1449.73,"body":"think"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1449.73,"endTime":1452.58,"body":"so. And of course, you can"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1449.73,"endTime":1452.58,"body":"still do relative fit. So you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1452.58,"endTime":1456.87,"body":"can look at likelihood ratio"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1452.58,"endTime":1456.87,"body":"comparisons of a model without"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1456.87,"endTime":1459.69,"body":"certain effects and a model with"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1456.87,"endTime":1459.69,"body":"those effects. And so you have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1459.69,"endTime":1462.42,"body":"those, you just don't have the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1459.69,"endTime":1462.42,"body":"traditional chi square test to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1462.42,"endTime":1466.35,"body":"fit RMSEA CFI. But yeah, I think"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1462.42,"endTime":1466.35,"body":"if the structure without these"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1466.35,"endTime":1469.53,"body":"effects fits pretty well, it's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1466.35,"endTime":1469.53,"body":"reasonable to assume that the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1469.53,"endTime":1472.47,"body":"structure with these effects"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1469.53,"endTime":1472.47,"body":"will continue to fit at least as"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1472.47,"endTime":1472.8,"body":"well."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1472.86,"endTime":1475.8,"body":"When you start thinking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1472.86,"endTime":1475.8,"body":"about your framework. It's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1475.8,"endTime":1480.75,"body":"really wild to start thinking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1475.8,"endTime":1480.75,"body":"about parameters as dependent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1480.75,"endTime":1484.2,"body":"variables. We've talked a lot on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1480.75,"endTime":1484.2,"body":"prior episodes about the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1484.2,"endTime":1488.16,"body":"important statistical concept of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1484.2,"endTime":1488.16,"body":"it depends. So what is the value"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1488.16,"endTime":1491.43,"body":"of the factor learning? Well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1488.16,"endTime":1491.43,"body":"it's point seven. How about for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1491.43,"endTime":1493.29,"body":"treatment and control? It's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1491.43,"endTime":1493.29,"body":"like, Dude, you're not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1493.29,"endTime":1496.59,"body":"listening. It's point seven. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1493.29,"endTime":1496.59,"body":"then you start to generalize and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1496.59,"endTime":1499.14,"body":"say, what is the value of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1496.59,"endTime":1499.14,"body":"factor learning you say? Well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1499.14,"endTime":1501.72,"body":"it depends. Are you in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1499.14,"endTime":1501.72,"body":"treatment or in the control"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1501.72,"endTime":1504.96,"body":"because that means it's either"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1501.72,"endTime":1504.96,"body":"point five, or it's point eight."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1505.02,"endTime":1508.95,"body":"And then we're off to the races."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1505.02,"endTime":1508.95,"body":"Because now what I envision in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1508.95,"endTime":1512.94,"body":"my mind's eye with your general"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1508.95,"endTime":1512.94,"body":"framework is we no longer have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1512.94,"endTime":1517.02,"body":"it's either point five or point"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1512.94,"endTime":1517.02,"body":"eight, I see it as tuning right"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1517.02,"endTime":1522.06,"body":"as age goes up a continuum with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1517.02,"endTime":1522.06,"body":"a factor loading goes up on a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1522.06,"endTime":1527.7,"body":"continuum. And it's not even"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1522.06,"endTime":1527.7,"body":"figurative, it's literal. When"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1527.7,"endTime":1531.21,"body":"you get the output from these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1527.7,"endTime":1531.21,"body":"programs. For a particular"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1531.21,"endTime":1534.21,"body":"parameter, you have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1531.21,"endTime":1534.21,"body":"intercept, which is the value of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1534.21,"endTime":1536.94,"body":"the parameter when all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1534.21,"endTime":1536.94,"body":"predictors are zero. And then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1536.94,"endTime":1541.65,"body":"you have slopes associated with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1536.94,"endTime":1541.65,"body":"each covariant or nonlinear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1541.65,"endTime":1546.15,"body":"effect or interactive effect, as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1541.65,"endTime":1546.15,"body":"you said, that then from that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1546.15,"endTime":1550.41,"body":"baseline value moves you up and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1546.15,"endTime":1550.41,"body":"down that number line, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1550.44,"endTime":1554.4,"body":"elegance of thinking about that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1550.44,"endTime":1554.4,"body":"as a general framework changes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1554.4,"endTime":1556.83,"body":"the way I think about a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1554.4,"endTime":1556.83,"body":"parameter estimate."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1556.86,"endTime":1560.58,"body":"One example of that, from a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1556.86,"endTime":1560.58,"body":"fairly recent paper I had on the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1560.58,"endTime":1565.2,"body":"SEC methods was I looked at an"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1560.58,"endTime":1565.2,"body":"MLFA on delinquent violent"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1565.2,"endTime":1568.56,"body":"behaviors. And one of those"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1565.2,"endTime":1568.56,"body":"items was, have you ever been in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1568.56,"endTime":1571.86,"body":"a fight that led to someone"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1568.56,"endTime":1571.86,"body":"having to go see a nurse or"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1571.86,"endTime":1576.09,"body":"doctor, so one that really leads"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1571.86,"endTime":1576.09,"body":"to some harm, and there was dif"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1576.12,"endTime":1580.11,"body":"all over the place for that item"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1576.12,"endTime":1580.11,"body":"as a function of age and as a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1580.11,"endTime":1582.42,"body":"function of sex and as a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1580.11,"endTime":1582.42,"body":"function of the interaction"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1582.42,"endTime":1585.75,"body":"between age and sex. And I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1582.42,"endTime":1585.75,"body":"hadn't really gone into the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1585.75,"endTime":1589.26,"body":"analysis anticipating that I was"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1585.75,"endTime":1589.26,"body":"going to find that. But once I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1589.29,"endTime":1594.15,"body":"saw that, I thought, wow, okay,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1589.29,"endTime":1594.15,"body":"yeah, because who is going to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1594.18,"endTime":1598.2,"body":"throw a punch and inflict actual"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1594.18,"endTime":1598.2,"body":"harm? Well, it's not going to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1598.2,"endTime":1601.53,"body":"a young kid, because they're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1598.2,"endTime":1601.53,"body":"just not big enough yet to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1601.53,"endTime":1606.24,"body":"inflict real harm, probably. But"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1601.53,"endTime":1606.24,"body":"an older kid, especially an"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1606.24,"endTime":1610.86,"body":"older boy is more likely throw"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1606.24,"endTime":1610.86,"body":"in that very same punch to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1610.86,"endTime":1614.22,"body":"inflict serious damage. So it's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1610.86,"endTime":1614.22,"body":"the same behavior, but a more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1614.22,"endTime":1618.48,"body":"significant consequence. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1614.22,"endTime":1618.48,"body":"because of that, we saw this age"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1618.51,"endTime":1622.05,"body":"and age by sex interaction,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1618.51,"endTime":1622.05,"body":"looking at the item parameters"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1622.05,"endTime":1624.57,"body":"for that particular item. And so"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1622.05,"endTime":1624.57,"body":"I was like, wow, that's kind of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1624.57,"endTime":1628.08,"body":"cool. That taps into ideas about"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1624.57,"endTime":1628.08,"body":"how developmental norms are"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1628.08,"endTime":1631.53,"body":"shifting maturational effects,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1628.08,"endTime":1631.53,"body":"heterotypic, continuity, all"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1631.53,"endTime":1635.73,"body":"kinds of cool notions, to see"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1631.53,"endTime":1635.73,"body":"how the very same behavior might"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1635.73,"endTime":1638.61,"body":"be indicative of something else"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1635.73,"endTime":1638.61,"body":"at different ages. And for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1638.61,"endTime":1640.5,"body":"different kinds of people, I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1638.61,"endTime":1640.5,"body":"just want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1640.53,"endTime":1643.65,"body":"underscore something here,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1640.53,"endTime":1643.65,"body":"which is what we do a lot, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1643.65,"endTime":1648.87,"body":"other person says something and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1643.65,"endTime":1648.87,"body":"then we repeat it. take credit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1648.87,"endTime":1652.62,"body":"for take credit for. And then we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1648.87,"endTime":1652.62,"body":"go back and edit out the first"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1652.62,"endTime":1657.72,"body":"person who said it. I love it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1652.62,"endTime":1657.72,"body":"You had snuck in there when you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1657.72,"endTime":1660.51,"body":"first started mentioning this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1657.72,"endTime":1660.51,"body":"putting in a variable that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1660.51,"endTime":1664.74,"body":"represents the study that it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1660.51,"endTime":1664.74,"body":"came from. And that's the bridge"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1664.74,"endTime":1669.36,"body":"to integrative data analysis."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1664.74,"endTime":1669.36,"body":"Right, right. That's where you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1669.36,"endTime":1670.14,"body":"expand on stuff."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1672.12,"endTime":1676.38,"body":"I mean, yes, it is the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1672.12,"endTime":1676.38,"body":"bridge. I'll just repeat what"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1676.38,"endTime":1680.22,"body":"you said. But more profoundly,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1676.38,"endTime":1680.22,"body":"it is the bridge to integrative"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1680.22,"endTime":1684.75,"body":"data analysis. And originally,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1680.22,"endTime":1684.75,"body":"that MLFA was proposed within"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1684.75,"endTime":1688.32,"body":"that context to solve problems"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1684.75,"endTime":1688.32,"body":"that arise there, because we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1688.32,"endTime":1690.96,"body":"tackling all kinds of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1688.32,"endTime":1690.96,"body":"measurement and variance issues"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1690.96,"endTime":1694.8,"body":"in an IDA setting. But it's not"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1690.96,"endTime":1694.8,"body":"exclusive to that setting,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1694.8,"endTime":1698.58,"body":"right. So you can apply this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1694.8,"endTime":1698.58,"body":"really in any context within"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1698.58,"endTime":1701.22,"body":"which you're interested in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1698.58,"endTime":1701.22,"body":"evaluating measurement"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1701.22,"endTime":1704.34,"body":"invariance. There are lots of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1701.22,"endTime":1704.34,"body":"settings in which you might be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1704.34,"endTime":1706.44,"body":"concerned with measurement"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1704.34,"endTime":1706.44,"body":"invariance, not just as a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1706.44,"endTime":1709.95,"body":"function of a single binary or"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1706.44,"endTime":1709.95,"body":"grouping variable. And so it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1709.95,"endTime":1713.22,"body":"does open the opportunity to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1709.95,"endTime":1713.22,"body":"look at a lot of different kinds"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1713.22,"endTime":1716.19,"body":"of measurement invariance than"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1713.22,"endTime":1716.19,"body":"traditionally we do."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1716.22,"endTime":1718.26,"body":"And I love that you were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1716.22,"endTime":1718.26,"body":"talking about having"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1718.29,"endTime":1722.94,"body":"interaction. So it's not just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1718.29,"endTime":1722.94,"body":"being able to absorb the typical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1722.94,"endTime":1726.51,"body":"categorical moderator variable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1722.94,"endTime":1726.51,"body":"or grouping variable, being able"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1726.51,"endTime":1728.43,"body":"to handle continuous and then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1726.51,"endTime":1728.43,"body":"being able to handle"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1728.43,"endTime":1732.48,"body":"interactions among variables,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1728.43,"endTime":1732.48,"body":"just sounds so powerful and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1732.48,"endTime":1735.45,"body":"flexible, my brain has to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1732.48,"endTime":1735.45,"body":"rewired a little bit,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1735.48,"endTime":1738.45,"body":"that rewiring of going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1735.48,"endTime":1738.45,"body":"all the way back to Meredith,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1738.48,"endTime":1742.95,"body":"your work is changing how we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1738.48,"endTime":1742.95,"body":"think about invariance. So go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1742.95,"endTime":1745.74,"body":"back to Meredith, he has a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1742.95,"endTime":1745.74,"body":"psychometric paper on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1745.74,"endTime":1748.65,"body":"invariants. And it was one of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1745.74,"endTime":1748.65,"body":"the most important papers"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1748.65,"endTime":1752.64,"body":"written and all of us who work"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1748.65,"endTime":1752.64,"body":"in this area know very well"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1752.64,"endTime":1756.99,"body":"about configural, weak, strong"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1752.64,"endTime":1756.99,"body":"and strict invariance, it was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1756.99,"endTime":1760.41,"body":"all built around a multiple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1756.99,"endTime":1760.41,"body":"group models, so group zero and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1760.41,"endTime":1764.25,"body":"group one, whatever that might"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1760.41,"endTime":1764.25,"body":"be. So you estimate one model,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1764.34,"endTime":1767.91,"body":"where you allow all the factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1764.34,"endTime":1767.91,"body":"loadings to be different across"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1767.94,"endTime":1771.33,"body":"the two groups. And then you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1767.94,"endTime":1771.33,"body":"estimate a second model in which"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1771.33,"endTime":1775.35,"body":"you make all the factor loadings"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1771.33,"endTime":1775.35,"body":"be equal across the two groups."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1775.38,"endTime":1778.02,"body":"And then typically, you do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1775.38,"endTime":1778.02,"body":"what's called a likelihood ratio"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1778.02,"endTime":1780.96,"body":"test where you say, is there a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1778.02,"endTime":1780.96,"body":"significant difference in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.96,"endTime":1783.99,"body":"fit of the models when I allowed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.96,"endTime":1783.99,"body":"them to be different versus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1783.99,"endTime":1786.81,"body":"allow them to be equal? If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1783.99,"endTime":1786.81,"body":"there's no difference between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1786.81,"endTime":1790.32,"body":"the models, we typically"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1786.81,"endTime":1790.32,"body":"conclude that there is weak"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.35,"endTime":1794.79,"body":"invariance meaning that the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.35,"endTime":1794.79,"body":"factor loadings hold for both"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1794.79,"endTime":1797.64,"body":"groups given what Dan has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1794.79,"endTime":1797.64,"body":"already talked about, you start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1797.64,"endTime":1800.7,"body":"to squint your eyes and caulk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1797.64,"endTime":1800.7,"body":"your head and say, Well As all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1800.7,"endTime":1804.24,"body":"of them are either equal or not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1800.7,"endTime":1804.24,"body":"equal, and then you say, oh, no,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1804.24,"endTime":1808.89,"body":"no, no, no, we can do partial"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1804.24,"endTime":1808.89,"body":"invariance where we use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1808.89,"endTime":1813.45,"body":"modification indices often to go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1808.89,"endTime":1813.45,"body":"on a bit of a snipe punt and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1813.45,"endTime":1817.89,"body":"say, Well turns out a 10 items"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1813.45,"endTime":1817.89,"body":"seven were equal, and three were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1817.89,"endTime":1821.37,"body":"not so then we have partial"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1817.89,"endTime":1821.37,"body":"invariance. But when you think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1821.37,"endTime":1825.81,"body":"about any parameter in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1821.37,"endTime":1825.81,"body":"model, in principle can be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1825.81,"endTime":1829.56,"body":"expressed as a function of one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1825.81,"endTime":1829.56,"body":"or more covariates. It almost"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1829.56,"endTime":1834.39,"body":"sets that entire framework, not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1829.56,"endTime":1834.39,"body":"aside, but it makes it a very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1834.39,"endTime":1837.06,"body":"special case of the more general"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1834.39,"endTime":1837.06,"body":"approach"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1837.09,"endTime":1840.03,"body":"with these kinds of models,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1837.09,"endTime":1840.03,"body":"I've actually come to like more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1840.03,"endTime":1844.2,"body":"and more the way the IRT people"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1840.03,"endTime":1844.2,"body":"look at invariance. In factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1844.2,"endTime":1847.68,"body":"analysis, as you describe, we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1844.2,"endTime":1847.68,"body":"tend to focus on the equivalence"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1847.68,"endTime":1851.31,"body":"of certain model matrices. So if"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1847.68,"endTime":1851.31,"body":"the factor loading matrices are"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1851.31,"endTime":1854.61,"body":"equal, we have weak invariants."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1851.31,"endTime":1854.61,"body":"If both the factor loadings and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1854.61,"endTime":1857.52,"body":"intercepts are equal, we have"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1854.61,"endTime":1857.52,"body":"strong invariance or scalar"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1857.52,"endTime":1860.49,"body":"invariance. But if we go so far"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1857.52,"endTime":1860.49,"body":"as to say the residual variances"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1860.49,"endTime":1863.13,"body":"are all equal to then we get to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1860.49,"endTime":1863.13,"body":"strict invariants. So we're sort"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1863.13,"endTime":1865.62,"body":"of focused on particular kinds"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1863.13,"endTime":1865.62,"body":"of parameters and whether"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1865.62,"endTime":1868.44,"body":"they're equal across groups. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1865.62,"endTime":1868.44,"body":"that gives rise to certain"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1868.44,"endTime":1870.9,"body":"properties for the latent"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1868.44,"endTime":1870.9,"body":"variables and how they're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1870.9,"endTime":1874.11,"body":"comparable. Whereas in the IoT"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1870.9,"endTime":1874.11,"body":"world, they tend to instead"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1874.11,"endTime":1877.32,"body":"focus on items. So in factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1874.11,"endTime":1877.32,"body":"analysis, we're focused on"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1877.32,"endTime":1880.98,"body":"matrices, and we're evaluating"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1877.32,"endTime":1880.98,"body":"whole matrices across items. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1880.98,"endTime":1884.64,"body":"an IRT we tend to focus on one"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1880.98,"endTime":1884.64,"body":"item at a time, I think focusing"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1884.64,"endTime":1887.85,"body":"on the item level is more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1884.64,"endTime":1887.85,"body":"productive, particularly when we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1887.85,"endTime":1891.36,"body":"start to think about multiple"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1887.85,"endTime":1891.36,"body":"variables involved in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1891.36,"endTime":1893.76,"body":"measurement invariance. And some"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1891.36,"endTime":1893.76,"body":"of those potentially being"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1893.76,"endTime":1897.3,"body":"continuous, because we might"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1893.76,"endTime":1897.3,"body":"find that we don't have a single"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1897.3,"endTime":1901.8,"body":"item that is invariant across"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1897.3,"endTime":1901.8,"body":"everything, we might have 10"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1901.83,"endTime":1906.87,"body":"items, and seven are invariant"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1901.83,"endTime":1906.87,"body":"to age, but not invariant to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1906.87,"endTime":1911.61,"body":"sex, or study. So what we really"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1906.87,"endTime":1911.61,"body":"need, I think, is for any given"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1911.64,"endTime":1914.82,"body":"dimension on which we're looking"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1911.64,"endTime":1914.82,"body":"for measurement invariance, we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1914.82,"endTime":1918.27,"body":"have a subset of items that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1914.82,"endTime":1918.27,"body":"don't show diff. So we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1918.27,"endTime":1921.42,"body":"looking at age, we need just a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1918.27,"endTime":1921.42,"body":"subset of items that don't show"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1921.42,"endTime":1924.96,"body":"age diff, they might still show"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1921.42,"endTime":1924.96,"body":"diff as a function of some other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1924.99,"endTime":1927.96,"body":"variable. It gets complicated to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1924.99,"endTime":1927.96,"body":"think about, but I think our"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1927.96,"endTime":1932.04,"body":"usual rules for deciding on"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1927.96,"endTime":1932.04,"body":"partial invariance and what"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1932.04,"endTime":1936.0,"body":"constitutes enough invariance to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1932.04,"endTime":1936.0,"body":"make scores comparable, probably"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1936.0,"endTime":1940.44,"body":"need a rethink. In this context,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1936.0,"endTime":1940.44,"body":"it does get at times a little"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1940.44,"endTime":1943.98,"body":"overwhelming because there is so"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1940.44,"endTime":1943.98,"body":"much complexity being built into"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1943.98,"endTime":1947.25,"body":"these models. Thing was Roger"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1943.98,"endTime":1947.25,"body":"Millsap who at one of these"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1947.25,"endTime":1950.4,"body":"secret cabal meetings of SMAP,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1947.25,"endTime":1950.4,"body":"you say, Yeah, this is a really"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1950.4,"endTime":1955.29,"body":"general model. But is it too"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1950.4,"endTime":1955.29,"body":"general, very quiet happy? To"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1955.29,"endTime":1960.48,"body":"clarify. That worries me a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1955.29,"endTime":1960.48,"body":"little bit, because it gets so"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1960.48,"endTime":1962.91,"body":"general that it becomes"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1960.48,"endTime":1962.91,"body":"difficult to use,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1962.97,"endTime":1965.25,"body":"can we go through the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1962.97,"endTime":1965.25,"body":"steps that one would go through"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1965.25,"endTime":1970.56,"body":"just in a typical example of an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1965.25,"endTime":1970.56,"body":"MNLF? A. So if we had, let's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1970.56,"endTime":1974.94,"body":"say, a two or three factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1970.56,"endTime":1974.94,"body":"model, just talk us through what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1974.94,"endTime":1978.15,"body":"would be the typical practical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1974.94,"endTime":1978.15,"body":"steps that someone would go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1978.15,"endTime":1980.88,"body":"through for assessing the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1978.15,"endTime":1980.88,"body":"invariance of different aspects"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1980.88,"endTime":1981.57,"body":"of that model."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1981.87,"endTime":1984.63,"body":"It's something that I've"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1981.87,"endTime":1984.63,"body":"been trying to tweak. So I'm"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1984.63,"endTime":1987.87,"body":"going to sort of start out with"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1984.63,"endTime":1987.87,"body":"how I've typically done it, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1987.87,"endTime":1990.75,"body":"then maybe tell you where I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1987.87,"endTime":1990.75,"body":"think things can go to make"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1990.75,"endTime":1994.47,"body":"things easier. Typically, the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1990.75,"endTime":1994.47,"body":"way we've done things is we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1994.47,"endTime":1997.32,"body":"usually pick off one factor at a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1994.47,"endTime":1997.32,"body":"time. So if you have like a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1997.32,"endTime":2001.37,"body":"three factor structure, pick off"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":1997.32,"endTime":2001.37,"body":"just one of those factors, fit a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2001.37,"endTime":2005.39,"body":"model in which there's full"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2001.37,"endTime":2005.39,"body":"invariance. So no diff anywhere,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2005.39,"endTime":2009.32,"body":"just a standard factor analysis"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2005.39,"endTime":2009.32,"body":"model, you can look at fit with"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2009.32,"endTime":2012.11,"body":"that. And it's just a baseline."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2009.32,"endTime":2012.11,"body":"It's just a starting point. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2012.11,"endTime":2016.28,"body":"then what I used to do is one"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2012.11,"endTime":2016.28,"body":"item at a time, I would go in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2016.28,"endTime":2020.9,"body":"and I would say okay, for item"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2016.28,"endTime":2020.9,"body":"one, is there any evidence of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2020.9,"endTime":2023.6,"body":"diff, or as a function of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2020.9,"endTime":2023.6,"body":"whatever my background"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2023.6,"endTime":2027.17,"body":"variables, let's just say sex"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2023.6,"endTime":2027.17,"body":"and study and age. So item one,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2027.2,"endTime":2030.44,"body":"is there any diff, okay, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2027.2,"endTime":2030.44,"body":"then we go and we fit the model"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2030.44,"endTime":2032.78,"body":"again. And now we take the diff"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2030.44,"endTime":2032.78,"body":"out of item one, and we put it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2032.78,"endTime":2035.36,"body":"in item two, and then we take it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2032.78,"endTime":2035.36,"body":"out of item two, and we put it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2035.36,"endTime":2038.36,"body":"in item three, and each time we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2035.36,"endTime":2038.36,"body":"look at how much improvement and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2038.36,"endTime":2042.14,"body":"fit was there relative to this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2038.36,"endTime":2042.14,"body":"model with no diff. And the item"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2042.14,"endTime":2044.78,"body":"that shows the greatest"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2042.14,"endTime":2044.78,"body":"improvement in fit, we say,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2044.78,"endTime":2047.78,"body":"Okay, looks like we really need"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2044.78,"endTime":2047.78,"body":"diff there. So we'll put that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2047.78,"endTime":2051.02,"body":"in. And now we'll make another"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2047.78,"endTime":2051.02,"body":"sweep, do we also need diff and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2051.02,"endTime":2053.72,"body":"item two, do we also need"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2051.02,"endTime":2053.72,"body":"different item through and so"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2053.72,"endTime":2056.63,"body":"on. And so we kind of get to a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2053.72,"endTime":2056.63,"body":"point where there's no longer"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2056.66,"endTime":2059.84,"body":"any improvement and fit by"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2056.66,"endTime":2059.84,"body":"adding more depth. And so this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2059.84,"endTime":2063.44,"body":"is a kind of iterative procedure"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2059.84,"endTime":2063.44,"body":"that involves lots and lots of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2063.44,"endTime":2066.8,"body":"likelihood ratio tests and model"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2063.44,"endTime":2066.8,"body":"specifications. And it's a real"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2066.8,"endTime":2071.03,"body":"pain to do some very"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2066.8,"endTime":2071.03,"body":"enterprising young scholars"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2071.06,"endTime":2075.05,"body":"Nisha Gottfredson. And Veronica"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2071.06,"endTime":2075.05,"body":"Cole developed our package, a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2075.05,"endTime":2079.13,"body":"MLFA, automated MLFA. That makes"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2075.05,"endTime":2079.13,"body":"this process a little bit easier"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2079.13,"endTime":2083.3,"body":"to do as an applied person. It"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2079.13,"endTime":2083.3,"body":"still involves lots and lots of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2083.3,"endTime":2087.11,"body":"these likelihood ratio tests. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2083.3,"endTime":2087.11,"body":"that's sort of traditionally how"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2087.11,"endTime":2091.31,"body":"I have done things, but we know"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2087.11,"endTime":2091.31,"body":"from research looking at similar"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2091.31,"endTime":2095.03,"body":"methods that that is prone to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2091.31,"endTime":2095.03,"body":"errors because when we test for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2095.03,"endTime":2097.55,"body":"the first item with diff, we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2095.03,"endTime":2097.55,"body":"not including the diff for the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2097.55,"endTime":2101.51,"body":"other items and when we test for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2097.55,"endTime":2101.51,"body":"the for fourth item with diff?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2101.54,"endTime":2104.39,"body":"Well, if we'd identified that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2101.54,"endTime":2104.39,"body":"when earlier, did we really need"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2104.39,"endTime":2106.7,"body":"the first three, we're not"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2104.39,"endTime":2106.7,"body":"really doing things in an"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2106.7,"endTime":2109.79,"body":"optimal way with that kind of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2106.7,"endTime":2109.79,"body":"testing strategy. And so more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2109.79,"endTime":2113.57,"body":"recently, I've been working on"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2109.79,"endTime":2113.57,"body":"developing some ways of fitting"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2113.57,"endTime":2116.6,"body":"the model in a way where you can"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2113.57,"endTime":2116.6,"body":"identify those patterns of diff"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2116.63,"endTime":2119.45,"body":"without having to do this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2116.63,"endTime":2119.45,"body":"sequential testing using"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2119.45,"endTime":2122.21,"body":"regularization. What that does"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2119.45,"endTime":2122.21,"body":"is it says, Okay, we're going to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2122.21,"endTime":2125.96,"body":"estimate the model, there could"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2122.21,"endTime":2125.96,"body":"be diff everywhere, except that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2125.99,"endTime":2129.5,"body":"the diff is expensive, right. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2125.99,"endTime":2129.5,"body":"to add a diff parameter to the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2129.5,"endTime":2132.62,"body":"model, it's going to cost"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2129.5,"endTime":2132.62,"body":"something in the likelihood. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2132.62,"endTime":2134.84,"body":"you don't just get the benefit"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2132.62,"endTime":2134.84,"body":"of including it. There's also a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2134.84,"endTime":2137.9,"body":"cost associated with including"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2134.84,"endTime":2137.9,"body":"an ad with a regularization"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2137.9,"endTime":2141.62,"body":"procedure, you can run the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2137.9,"endTime":2141.62,"body":"procedure from place similar to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2141.62,"endTime":2144.14,"body":"that first model I described"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2141.62,"endTime":2144.14,"body":"where there's no diff at all,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2144.17,"endTime":2146.81,"body":"the penalty is really high. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2144.17,"endTime":2146.81,"body":"there's no diff, it's too"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2146.81,"endTime":2150.26,"body":"expensive. And then you slowly"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2146.81,"endTime":2150.26,"body":"ratchet down the penalty that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2150.26,"endTime":2153.56,"body":"allows the diff to enter the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2150.26,"endTime":2153.56,"body":"model. And at some point, you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2153.56,"endTime":2156.35,"body":"identify, we've hit a point"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2153.56,"endTime":2156.35,"body":"where maybe it's the Bayes"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2156.35,"endTime":2159.68,"body":"information criteria is at its"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2156.35,"endTime":2159.68,"body":"minimum, and this looks like the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2159.68,"endTime":2163.01,"body":"best place to stop. And that's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2159.68,"endTime":2163.01,"body":"my pattern of diff. So what's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2163.01,"endTime":2166.61,"body":"nice about that, from the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2163.01,"endTime":2166.61,"body":"perspective of an applied user"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2166.64,"endTime":2170.18,"body":"is that you can just hit run,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2166.64,"endTime":2170.18,"body":"and it does all this work in the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2170.18,"endTime":2172.91,"body":"background, where you get the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2170.18,"endTime":2172.91,"body":"most bang for the buck, right?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2172.91,"endTime":2175.58,"body":"Diff was expensive, but this is"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2172.91,"endTime":2175.58,"body":"where you needed to pay for it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2175.58,"endTime":2178.52,"body":"because it gave you a good"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2175.58,"endTime":2178.52,"body":"improvement to model fit. So we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2178.52,"endTime":2182.75,"body":"played around with that in a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2178.52,"endTime":2182.75,"body":"frequentist setting with lasso"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2182.75,"endTime":2185.39,"body":"penalty. And we've also played"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2182.75,"endTime":2185.39,"body":"around with that some in a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2185.39,"endTime":2188.24,"body":"Bayesian setting, which has some"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2185.39,"endTime":2188.24,"body":"real advantages as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2188.24,"endTime":2190.97,"body":"well, this is still for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2188.24,"endTime":2190.97,"body":"the one factor at a time part,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2190.97,"endTime":2193.58,"body":"right, this is still for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2190.97,"endTime":2193.58,"body":"the one factor at a time because"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2193.61,"endTime":2196.55,"body":"these models leads to their"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2193.61,"endTime":2196.55,"body":"estimate in a maximum likelihood"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2196.55,"endTime":2199.76,"body":"setting require the use of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2196.55,"endTime":2199.76,"body":"numerical integration and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2199.82,"endTime":2203.51,"body":"numerical integration becomes"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2199.82,"endTime":2203.51,"body":"more and more computationally"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2203.51,"endTime":2208.07,"body":"expensive. As you add factors,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2203.51,"endTime":2208.07,"body":"it becomes very expensive to add"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2208.07,"endTime":2212.03,"body":"more latent variables to these"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2208.07,"endTime":2212.03,"body":"models. Within the Bayesian"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2212.03,"endTime":2216.08,"body":"approach, the computational"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2212.03,"endTime":2216.08,"body":"speed doesn't slow down as fast,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2216.11,"endTime":2218.51,"body":"the numerical integration of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2216.11,"endTime":2218.51,"body":"maximum likelihood is like this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2218.51,"endTime":2222.05,"body":"exponential cost in terms of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2218.51,"endTime":2222.05,"body":"computational speed, whereas in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2222.05,"endTime":2224.75,"body":"the Bayesian, it's more linear."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2222.05,"endTime":2224.75,"body":"So it still takes longer to fit"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2224.75,"endTime":2228.47,"body":"a model with more dimensions,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2224.75,"endTime":2228.47,"body":"but not as long as the maximum"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2228.47,"endTime":2229.01,"body":"likelihood"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2229.22,"endTime":2233.27,"body":"in addition to just the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2229.22,"endTime":2233.27,"body":"time and the computation, your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2233.27,"endTime":2238.37,"body":"2017 paper, you did expand it to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2233.27,"endTime":2238.37,"body":"multiple factors were not only"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2238.37,"endTime":2241.82,"body":"can you do that, but what I felt"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2238.37,"endTime":2241.82,"body":"was really intriguing about that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2241.85,"endTime":2245.87,"body":"is you can write equations for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2241.85,"endTime":2245.87,"body":"the covariance between the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2245.87,"endTime":2246.62,"body":"factors"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2246.65,"endTime":2250.07,"body":"that was really cool. I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2246.65,"endTime":2250.07,"body":"mean, I kind of went into that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2250.07,"endTime":2254.48,"body":"wanting to show that you could"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2250.07,"endTime":2254.48,"body":"do this with more complex"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2254.48,"endTime":2257.51,"body":"models. And so the strategy I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2254.48,"endTime":2257.51,"body":"use there because they are"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2257.54,"endTime":2262.13,"body":"computationally expensive, is"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2257.54,"endTime":2262.13,"body":"identify the patterns of dif for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2262.13,"endTime":2266.06,"body":"each factor univariate Utley, I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2262.13,"endTime":2266.06,"body":"had the violent delinquency"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2266.06,"endTime":2268.28,"body":"factor and the non violent"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2266.06,"endTime":2268.28,"body":"delinquency factor, and I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2268.28,"endTime":2271.85,"body":"analyzed those separately to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2268.28,"endTime":2271.85,"body":"identify the diff. And then once"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2271.85,"endTime":2273.86,"body":"I felt like I knew where the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2271.85,"endTime":2273.86,"body":"diff was going to be, that's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2273.86,"endTime":2277.34,"body":"when I bolted them together, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2273.86,"endTime":2277.34,"body":"then looked at that covariance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2277.34,"endTime":2281.03,"body":"parameter. And what's cool about"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2277.34,"endTime":2281.03,"body":"that is then you can look at a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2281.03,"endTime":2285.41,"body":"question like are violent and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2281.03,"endTime":2285.41,"body":"nonviolent delinquency more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2285.41,"endTime":2290.06,"body":"highly correlated at some ages"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2285.41,"endTime":2290.06,"body":"than others, or for some groups"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2290.06,"endTime":2293.9,"body":"than other groups, boys versus"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2290.06,"endTime":2293.9,"body":"girls, for instance, it really"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2293.93,"endTime":2297.41,"body":"opens the door in a sense into"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2293.93,"endTime":2297.41,"body":"thinking that any of the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2297.41,"endTime":2300.62,"body":"parameters of my model, I could"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2297.41,"endTime":2300.62,"body":"potentially allow it to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2300.62,"endTime":2304.16,"body":"moderated by these background"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2300.62,"endTime":2304.16,"body":"variables of interest. It"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2304.16,"endTime":2306.8,"body":"doesn't even necessarily have to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2304.16,"endTime":2306.8,"body":"be in a measurement context, you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2306.8,"endTime":2309.17,"body":"could do it in any kind of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2306.8,"endTime":2309.17,"body":"context, whether it's a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2309.17,"endTime":2313.01,"body":"covariance parameter or variance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2309.17,"endTime":2313.01,"body":"parameter, or what have you. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2313.01,"endTime":2317.66,"body":"in that sense, it expands upon"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2313.01,"endTime":2317.66,"body":"how we think about moderation in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2317.66,"endTime":2320.72,"body":"general, and regression"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2317.66,"endTime":2320.72,"body":"analysis, we do moderation all"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2320.72,"endTime":2324.11,"body":"the time, we include these"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2320.72,"endTime":2324.11,"body":"product interactions. And what"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2324.11,"endTime":2326.63,"body":"does that mean? It means the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2324.11,"endTime":2326.63,"body":"slope of one variable is a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2326.63,"endTime":2329.45,"body":"linear function of another"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2326.63,"endTime":2329.45,"body":"variable, right? Well, we're not"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2329.45,"endTime":2332.63,"body":"restricted to slopes anymore,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2329.45,"endTime":2332.63,"body":"right, we can have a covariance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2332.63,"endTime":2335.39,"body":"be some function of other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2332.63,"endTime":2335.39,"body":"variables, we can have a factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2335.39,"endTime":2338.0,"body":"loading be some function of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2335.39,"endTime":2338.0,"body":"other variables. So we can"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2338.03,"endTime":2342.89,"body":"expand what we think of in terms"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2338.03,"endTime":2342.89,"body":"of moderation as any parameter"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2342.89,"endTime":2346.13,"body":"and a model could potentially be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2342.89,"endTime":2346.13,"body":"expressed as a function of other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2346.16,"endTime":2348.59,"body":"variables. And that I think is"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2346.16,"endTime":2348.59,"body":"really cool."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2348.8,"endTime":2353.06,"body":"It's amazing to see"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2348.8,"endTime":2353.06,"body":"because in Dan's 2017 paper"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2353.12,"endTime":2358.46,"body":"picture in your mind's eye in x,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2353.12,"endTime":2358.46,"body":"y plot, where x is age, and y is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2358.46,"endTime":2362.6,"body":"the covariance between two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2358.46,"endTime":2362.6,"body":"factors, you can have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2362.6,"endTime":2368.93,"body":"nonlinear relation that tracks"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2362.6,"endTime":2368.93,"body":"increases in age with the model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2368.93,"endTime":2372.38,"body":"implied difference in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2368.93,"endTime":2372.38,"body":"magnitude of the covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2372.38,"endTime":2376.76,"body":"between the latent factors."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2372.38,"endTime":2376.76,"body":"There's no existing readily"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2376.76,"endTime":2379.88,"body":"available analytic method that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2376.76,"endTime":2379.88,"body":"allows us not only to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2379.88,"endTime":2383.96,"body":"numerically evaluate that based"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2379.88,"endTime":2383.96,"body":"on our sample data, but imagine"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2383.96,"endTime":2387.59,"body":"the types of theoretical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2383.96,"endTime":2387.59,"body":"questions that this opens."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2387.62,"endTime":2390.62,"body":"That's absolutely right. In"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2387.62,"endTime":2390.62,"body":"this multi dimensional setting"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2390.62,"endTime":2393.65,"body":"is particularly well suited to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2390.62,"endTime":2393.65,"body":"questions like the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2393.65,"endTime":2398.9,"body":"differentiation of factors over"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2393.65,"endTime":2398.9,"body":"time, or what I think sometimes"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2398.9,"endTime":2402.35,"body":"we observe in our Our age set,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2398.9,"endTime":2402.35,"body":"which is the de differentiation"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2402.35,"endTime":2406.13,"body":"hypothesis of cognitive aging,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2402.35,"endTime":2406.13,"body":"that what were previously kind"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2406.13,"endTime":2409.76,"body":"of distinct intellectual"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2406.13,"endTime":2409.76,"body":"abilities sort of glom back"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2409.76,"endTime":2416.78,"body":"together, and it's all crap."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2409.76,"endTime":2416.78,"body":"That one Yeah, I think it's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2416.78,"endTime":2419.99,"body":"really well suited to evaluate"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2416.78,"endTime":2419.99,"body":"those kinds of questions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2420.14,"endTime":2424.37,"body":"in the factor model, how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2420.14,"endTime":2424.37,"body":"do you handle the scaling and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2424.37,"endTime":2426.65,"body":"potential non invariance on that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2426.68,"endTime":2430.31,"body":"what we do is sort of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2426.68,"endTime":2430.31,"body":"analogous to what is often done"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2430.31,"endTime":2433.37,"body":"in a multiple groups factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2430.31,"endTime":2433.37,"body":"analysis, where you choose one"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2433.37,"endTime":2436.73,"body":"group to set the mean of the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2433.37,"endTime":2436.73,"body":"factors to zero and the variance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2436.73,"endTime":2439.31,"body":"of the factors to one, imagine"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2436.73,"endTime":2439.31,"body":"that you're not doing that in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2439.31,"endTime":2441.62,"body":"the standard way, instead,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2439.31,"endTime":2441.62,"body":"you're doing it as Okay, we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2441.62,"endTime":2444.95,"body":"gonna have baseline parameters"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2441.62,"endTime":2444.95,"body":"for one group, and then we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2444.95,"endTime":2447.02,"body":"gonna have differences for the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2444.95,"endTime":2447.02,"body":"other group. So you're gonna"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2447.02,"endTime":2450.53,"body":"have a coding variable 01, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2447.02,"endTime":2450.53,"body":"that coding variables, either"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2450.53,"endTime":2453.14,"body":"going to produce the difference"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2450.53,"endTime":2453.14,"body":"or not, it's scored one, then"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2453.14,"endTime":2455.51,"body":"you get the difference, and it's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2453.14,"endTime":2455.51,"body":"scored zero, then you don't. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2455.51,"endTime":2459.89,"body":"similarly here, we just set the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2455.51,"endTime":2459.89,"body":"mean and variance to zero, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2459.89,"endTime":2463.94,"body":"one where all variables are"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2459.89,"endTime":2463.94,"body":"zero. So if you're going to look"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2463.94,"endTime":2468.71,"body":"at something like age and sex,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2463.94,"endTime":2468.71,"body":"then you choose, okay, I want"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2468.71,"endTime":2471.56,"body":"girls to be the reference group,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2468.71,"endTime":2471.56,"body":"I'm going to code them zero, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2471.56,"endTime":2474.92,"body":"you choose an age either at the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2471.56,"endTime":2474.92,"body":"beginning or in the middle, or"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2474.92,"endTime":2477.77,"body":"at the end of the scale point."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2474.92,"endTime":2477.77,"body":"So Center at somewhere"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2477.77,"endTime":2480.89,"body":"meaningful and and that's it's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2477.77,"endTime":2480.89,"body":"not too different from how you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2480.89,"endTime":2483.53,"body":"would interpret an intercept in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2480.89,"endTime":2483.53,"body":"a regression, right as the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2483.53,"endTime":2486.77,"body":"intercept is the expected value,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2483.53,"endTime":2486.77,"body":"or all predictors are zero."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2486.8,"endTime":2489.53,"body":"Similarly, we're going to have a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2486.8,"endTime":2489.53,"body":"baseline factor loading, that's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2489.53,"endTime":2492.98,"body":"going to be the factor loadings"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2489.53,"endTime":2492.98,"body":"where all predictors are zero,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2493.13,"endTime":2495.89,"body":"we're going to have a factor"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2493.13,"endTime":2495.89,"body":"mean, where all predictors are"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2495.89,"endTime":2498.05,"body":"zero, we're going to have a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2495.89,"endTime":2498.05,"body":"factor variance where all"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2498.05,"endTime":2502.01,"body":"predictors are zero to identify"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2498.05,"endTime":2502.01,"body":"the scale, we have to fix that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2502.01,"endTime":2505.55,"body":"mean invariance somewhere in a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2502.01,"endTime":2505.55,"body":"multi group factor analysis, you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2505.55,"endTime":2509.03,"body":"do it for one group here, we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2505.55,"endTime":2509.03,"body":"going to do it for one level of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2509.03,"endTime":2512.12,"body":"those background variables where"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2509.03,"endTime":2512.12,"body":"all our zero will have means of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2512.12,"endTime":2513.62,"body":"zero and variances of one."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2513.86,"endTime":2515.87,"body":"What is Patrick sign of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2513.86,"endTime":2515.87,"body":"the zodiac?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2518.9,"endTime":2522.38,"body":"I don't even know my own"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2518.9,"endTime":2522.38,"body":"sign of the zodiac for goodness."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2522.38,"endTime":2527.72,"body":"So people helped me his"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2522.38,"endTime":2527.72,"body":"birthday, I believe is in May,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2528.23,"endTime":2532.46,"body":"you had a one in 12"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2528.23,"endTime":2532.46,"body":"chance. Wow, you were to talk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2532.46,"endTime":2537.53,"body":"awkward in the measurement class"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2532.46,"endTime":2537.53,"body":"that is taught by Hancock and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2537.53,"endTime":2542.0,"body":"Curran. We have an entire"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2537.53,"endTime":2542.0,"body":"chapter on MNLF. A"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2542.03,"endTime":2544.88,"body":"It's like he's opened up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2542.03,"endTime":2544.88,"body":"his phone and showing pictures"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2544.88,"endTime":2550.22,"body":"of you several hours. Look, this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2544.88,"endTime":2550.22,"body":"is Dan I miss Dan,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2550.94,"endTime":2556.4,"body":"Patrick could make this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2550.94,"endTime":2556.4,"body":"amazing soup. Well, your dinners"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2556.4,"endTime":2557.6,"body":"good too Greg."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2561.29,"endTime":2564.62,"body":"Damn in some of the way"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2561.29,"endTime":2564.62,"body":"your work has been generative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2564.62,"endTime":2568.91,"body":"and broadly construed my work in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2564.62,"endTime":2568.91,"body":"collaboration with you using"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2568.91,"endTime":2572.93,"body":"them and LFA has actually been"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2568.91,"endTime":2572.93,"body":"very practical and very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2572.93,"endTime":2578.45,"body":"pragmatic. And that is I want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2572.93,"endTime":2578.45,"body":"scores. There are many uses for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2578.45,"endTime":2581.39,"body":"factor analysis. But there are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2578.45,"endTime":2581.39,"body":"two big ones. One is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2581.51,"endTime":2585.56,"body":"understanding the psychometric"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2581.51,"endTime":2585.56,"body":"model that underlies the setting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2585.56,"endTime":2588.89,"body":"indicators that we observed in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2585.56,"endTime":2588.89,"body":"our sample, what are the factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2588.89,"endTime":2591.56,"body":"loadings? What are the item"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2588.89,"endTime":2591.56,"body":"intercepts, what is the variance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2591.56,"endTime":2594.62,"body":"of the latent variable, and then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2591.56,"endTime":2594.62,"body":"your method allows us to say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2594.62,"endTime":2598.01,"body":"well do those vary in some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2594.62,"endTime":2598.01,"body":"deterministic way as a function"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.01,"endTime":2601.58,"body":"of the set of covariates. That's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.01,"endTime":2601.58,"body":"very important, that's very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2601.58,"endTime":2604.67,"body":"interesting that moves us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2601.58,"endTime":2604.67,"body":"forward as a field, what I want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2604.67,"endTime":2608.9,"body":"to do is to take a set of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2604.67,"endTime":2608.9,"body":"indicators, be certain that I've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2608.9,"endTime":2612.86,"body":"worked in whatever differential"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2608.9,"endTime":2612.86,"body":"item function exists in the way"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2612.86,"endTime":2616.67,"body":"that you've described. And then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2612.86,"endTime":2616.67,"body":"I want to use it as a million"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2616.67,"endTime":2621.86,"body":"dollar calculator to get a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2616.67,"endTime":2621.86,"body":"manifest variable score that I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.86,"endTime":2625.52,"body":"can put in my back pocket and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.86,"endTime":2625.52,"body":"take to more complicated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2625.52,"endTime":2628.55,"body":"analytic frameworks, like a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2625.52,"endTime":2628.55,"body":"growth model or a multi level"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2628.55,"endTime":2632.33,"body":"model. Tell us about the scoring"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2628.55,"endTime":2632.33,"body":"potential for these things."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2632.42,"endTime":2634.94,"body":"That's a lot of where the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2632.42,"endTime":2634.94,"body":"initial motivation came from."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2634.94,"endTime":2637.85,"body":"With our integrative data"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2634.94,"endTime":2637.85,"body":"analysis applications, we wanted"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2637.85,"endTime":2641.57,"body":"scores on which we could fit"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2637.85,"endTime":2641.57,"body":"some growth models, the promise,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2641.57,"endTime":2643.82,"body":"at least of this approach is to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2641.57,"endTime":2643.82,"body":"get scores that are more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2643.82,"endTime":2647.93,"body":"comparable, that are fairer, to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2643.82,"endTime":2647.93,"body":"compare, or to look for change"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2647.93,"endTime":2651.62,"body":"on over time than what we would"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2647.93,"endTime":2651.62,"body":"get if we failed to account for"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2651.62,"endTime":2653.69,"body":"that differential item"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2651.62,"endTime":2653.69,"body":"functioning and that lack of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2653.69,"endTime":2657.71,"body":"measurement invariance, some"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2653.69,"endTime":2657.71,"body":"research that Patrick you had it"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2657.71,"endTime":2661.13,"body":"up, but I was a part of looked"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2657.71,"endTime":2661.13,"body":"at, well, what if we just did"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2661.13,"endTime":2665.3,"body":"scoring, as usual? Didn't look"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2661.13,"endTime":2665.3,"body":"for the diff. What if we do"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2665.3,"endTime":2668.57,"body":"incorporate the diff? Some"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2665.3,"endTime":2668.57,"body":"analyses make it look like well,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2668.57,"endTime":2671.54,"body":"maybe it doesn't matter that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2668.57,"endTime":2671.54,"body":"much traditional scores and the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2671.54,"endTime":2675.62,"body":"MLFA scores might correlate in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2671.54,"endTime":2675.62,"body":"the point nines somewhere. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2675.62,"endTime":2677.72,"body":"you might say, Oh, well, that's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2675.62,"endTime":2677.72,"body":"good enough. I could just use"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2677.72,"endTime":2681.44,"body":"the regular scores. But other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2677.72,"endTime":2681.44,"body":"analyses like well, what happens"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2681.44,"endTime":2685.16,"body":"when we bring these scores into"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2681.44,"endTime":2685.16,"body":"a model showed real differences"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2685.22,"endTime":2688.52,"body":"and the MLFA scores better"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2685.22,"endTime":2688.52,"body":"preserved the kinds of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2688.52,"endTime":2691.58,"body":"relationships that we knew to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2688.52,"endTime":2691.58,"body":"there because we had simulated"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2691.58,"endTime":2696.35,"body":"the data there is the promise to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2691.58,"endTime":2696.35,"body":"be able to get better scores"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2696.35,"endTime":2699.62,"body":"from this kind of a modeling"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2696.35,"endTime":2699.62,"body":"approach than what we currently"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2699.62,"endTime":2701.21,"body":"do. with business as usual,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2701.48,"endTime":2704.18,"body":"I have a love hate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2701.48,"endTime":2704.18,"body":"relationship with these at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2704.18,"endTime":2707.9,"body":"scoring level as I drank the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2704.18,"endTime":2707.9,"body":"Kool Aid on the MNLF a scores"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2707.9,"endTime":2712.01,"body":"and we will put in the show"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2707.9,"endTime":2712.01,"body":"notes. But Dan and I, together"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2712.01,"endTime":2715.25,"body":"with a group of really talented"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2712.01,"endTime":2715.25,"body":"colleagues and students and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2715.25,"endTime":2718.64,"body":"postdocs have written more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2715.25,"endTime":2718.64,"body":"papers on this than we probably"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2718.64,"endTime":2721.79,"body":"should have. We did some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2718.64,"endTime":2721.79,"body":"simulation work, we've done"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2721.79,"endTime":2724.43,"body":"applied work, we've done it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2721.79,"endTime":2724.43,"body":"within the substance use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2724.43,"endTime":2727.97,"body":"research, we've done it within"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2724.43,"endTime":2727.97,"body":"internalizing and externalizing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.97,"endTime":2731.84,"body":"symptomatology. One thing we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.97,"endTime":2731.84,"body":"have to balance, I think, in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2731.84,"endTime":2737.3,"body":"using these things in practice,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2731.84,"endTime":2737.3,"body":"is that you and I found pretty"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2737.33,"endTime":2741.32,"body":"unambiguously that when you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2737.33,"endTime":2741.32,"body":"build in diff, and here's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2741.32,"endTime":2745.64,"body":"big thing, and when you know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2741.32,"endTime":2745.64,"body":"what that diff is more or less,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2745.7,"endTime":2749.54,"body":"if you do not incorporate that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2745.7,"endTime":2749.54,"body":"into your scores, there are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.54,"endTime":2753.05,"body":"going to be downstream"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.54,"endTime":2753.05,"body":"influences that bias the use of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2753.05,"endTime":2756.95,"body":"those scores and other analyses."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2753.05,"endTime":2756.95,"body":"But Dan, and I have been really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2756.95,"endTime":2761.75,"body":"fortunate to have Dave thissen"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2756.95,"endTime":2761.75,"body":"as a colleague, and Dave is an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2761.75,"endTime":2765.68,"body":"internationally recognized"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2761.75,"endTime":2765.68,"body":"expert in item response theory."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2765.86,"endTime":2770.93,"body":"And paraphrasing one of his"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2765.86,"endTime":2770.93,"body":"views is the sum score is wrong,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2771.11,"endTime":2775.04,"body":"but you always know how it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2771.11,"endTime":2775.04,"body":"wrong. So if you just add up the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2775.04,"endTime":2778.67,"body":"number of items, that's always"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2775.04,"endTime":2778.67,"body":"the wrong score, but you know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2778.67,"endTime":2782.09,"body":"how it's wrong. And it's always"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2778.67,"endTime":2782.09,"body":"wrong in the same way. And one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2782.09,"endTime":2785.42,"body":"thing that has started to worry"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2782.09,"endTime":2785.42,"body":"me a little bit about these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.42,"endTime":2789.23,"body":"models in the way that I've used"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.42,"endTime":2789.23,"body":"them for scoring, the scores are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2789.23,"endTime":2793.28,"body":"only as good as the MNLF"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2789.23,"endTime":2793.28,"body":"estimates that you get the goes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2793.28,"endTime":2797.72,"body":"into the calculation of those,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2793.28,"endTime":2797.72,"body":"and each of those coefficients"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2797.9,"endTime":2802.7,"body":"that slide a lambda up and down,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2797.9,"endTime":2802.7,"body":"or slide a tau, up and down."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2802.85,"endTime":2806.51,"body":"Those are characterized by a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2802.85,"endTime":2806.51,"body":"standard error. And if you were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2806.51,"endTime":2811.58,"body":"to do a thought experiment, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2806.51,"endTime":2811.58,"body":"redo your study, all of those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2811.58,"endTime":2815.96,"body":"parameters would take on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2811.58,"endTime":2815.96,"body":"slightly different values, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2815.96,"endTime":2819.86,"body":"some scores are not going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2815.96,"endTime":2819.86,"body":"change, but the estimated MNLF,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2819.86,"endTime":2821.06,"body":"a score is"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2821.09,"endTime":2827.12,"body":"going to make it worse."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2821.09,"endTime":2827.12,"body":"Please, wow, not only are the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2827.12,"endTime":2829.94,"body":"parameters, you estimate gonna"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2827.12,"endTime":2829.94,"body":"take on different estimates"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2829.94,"endTime":2832.49,"body":"across samples, but you might"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2829.94,"endTime":2832.49,"body":"not even estimate the same"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2832.49,"endTime":2835.4,"body":"parameters, because you're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2832.49,"endTime":2835.4,"body":"assuming that you would know the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2835.4,"endTime":2839.93,"body":"right pattern of diff. And we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2835.4,"endTime":2839.93,"body":"always doing some kind of data"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2839.96,"endTime":2844.07,"body":"based assessment of where is the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2839.96,"endTime":2844.07,"body":"diff well, on one sample, you"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2844.07,"endTime":2846.86,"body":"might have a false positive here"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2844.07,"endTime":2846.86,"body":"and a false negative there, and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2846.86,"endTime":2849.29,"body":"then another sample, it could be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2846.86,"endTime":2849.29,"body":"somewhere else. And so you might"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2849.29,"endTime":2852.14,"body":"have different patterns of diff"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2849.29,"endTime":2852.14,"body":"from one sample to another. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2852.14,"endTime":2855.2,"body":"not only is it sampling error"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2852.14,"endTime":2855.2,"body":"that we have to worry about, but"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2855.2,"endTime":2858.5,"body":"also the accuracy of whatever"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2855.2,"endTime":2858.5,"body":"diff detection method we're"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2858.5,"endTime":2861.95,"body":"employing, and whether it really"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2858.5,"endTime":2861.95,"body":"did recover the right pattern of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2861.95,"endTime":2863.06,"body":"diff or not."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2863.09,"endTime":2865.37,"body":"And yet, this gives us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2863.09,"endTime":2865.37,"body":"a tool to look at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2865.37,"endTime":2868.49,"body":"characteristics of the data in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2865.37,"endTime":2868.49,"body":"way that we didn't have before."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2868.61,"endTime":2871.94,"body":"So I don't want this part of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2868.61,"endTime":2871.94,"body":"conversation to be taken as Oh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2871.94,"endTime":2874.88,"body":"wow, you shouldn't be doing it."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2871.94,"endTime":2874.88,"body":"This is actually part of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2874.88,"endTime":2878.66,"body":"benefit of the more general and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2874.88,"endTime":2878.66,"body":"complicated model. Not only do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2878.66,"endTime":2881.21,"body":"we have to deal with these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2878.66,"endTime":2881.21,"body":"things, but we have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2881.24,"endTime":2884.63,"body":"opportunity to deal with these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2881.24,"endTime":2884.63,"body":"things. Because if you do a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2884.63,"endTime":2887.33,"body":"single group model, you're just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2884.63,"endTime":2887.33,"body":"rocking back and forth and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2887.33,"endTime":2890.06,"body":"saying there is no diff, there"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2887.33,"endTime":2890.06,"body":"is no diff with the very same"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2890.06,"endTime":2892.7,"body":"date. If you do a two group,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2890.06,"endTime":2892.7,"body":"you're saying it's equal to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2892.7,"endTime":2895.16,"body":"point five or point seven, it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2892.7,"endTime":2895.16,"body":"equal to point five, or it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2895.16,"endTime":2898.46,"body":"point seven. Here, it's saying,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2895.16,"endTime":2898.46,"body":"dude, you can write an equation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2898.46,"endTime":2901.82,"body":"for any parameter in your model,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2898.46,"endTime":2901.82,"body":"you got to deal with that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2902.03,"endTime":2904.22,"body":"the stuff that you did,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2902.03,"endTime":2904.22,"body":"has changed the way I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2904.22,"endTime":2907.7,"body":"about things. What I mean is,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2904.22,"endTime":2907.7,"body":"it's not so much in the context"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2907.7,"endTime":2911.72,"body":"of invariance testing within a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2907.7,"endTime":2911.72,"body":"factor analytic model, or diff"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2911.72,"endTime":2914.72,"body":"specifically as we think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2911.72,"endTime":2914.72,"body":"it, psychometrically. But the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2914.72,"endTime":2918.77,"body":"broader idea that parameters"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2914.72,"endTime":2918.77,"body":"themselves can be functions of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2918.77,"endTime":2922.97,"body":"other things as liberated my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2918.77,"endTime":2922.97,"body":"thinking about moderation, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2922.97,"endTime":2928.04,"body":"person I used to be pre Bower BB"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2922.97,"endTime":2928.04,"body":"would, or whatever that would be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2928.07,"endTime":2932.12,"body":"before the Bower era bbe Is that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2928.07,"endTime":2932.12,"body":"what it would be a person that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2932.12,"endTime":2936.32,"body":"was bbe would have been looking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2932.12,"endTime":2936.32,"body":"for thoughtful ways to take age"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2936.32,"endTime":2939.65,"body":"and maybe partition it into"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2936.32,"endTime":2939.65,"body":"meaningful age groups, and then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2939.65,"endTime":2942.98,"body":"just beat the heck out of multi"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2939.65,"endTime":2942.98,"body":"group analyses and do the best"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2942.98,"endTime":2945.29,"body":"that I could. But that's not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2942.98,"endTime":2945.29,"body":"even just in the context of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2945.29,"endTime":2947.81,"body":"factor models, right? I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2945.29,"endTime":2947.81,"body":"about this in terms of a path"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.81,"endTime":2951.41,"body":"model. So I recently was working"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.81,"endTime":2951.41,"body":"on a grant that I had funded"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2951.41,"endTime":2954.65,"body":"with a colleague in the School"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2951.41,"endTime":2954.65,"body":"of Social Work, we got funded to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2954.65,"endTime":2958.82,"body":"look at direct effects, indirect"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2954.65,"endTime":2958.82,"body":"effects, other kinds of effects"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2958.85,"endTime":2963.59,"body":"as a function of a whole host of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2958.85,"endTime":2963.59,"body":"other variables. And this has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2963.59,"endTime":2965.93,"body":"nothing to do with a factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2963.59,"endTime":2965.93,"body":"model. But it has everything to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2965.93,"endTime":2968.78,"body":"do with thinking about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2965.93,"endTime":2968.78,"body":"parameters, whether they're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2968.81,"endTime":2972.89,"body":"simple parameters or more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2968.81,"endTime":2972.89,"body":"compound parameters as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2972.89,"endTime":2976.55,"body":"function of other things. Now, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2972.89,"endTime":2976.55,"body":"just gotta give credit where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2976.55,"endTime":2980.33,"body":"credit is due, you have changed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2976.55,"endTime":2980.33,"body":"the way I think about moderation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2980.36,"endTime":2982.97,"body":"much more broadly. And I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2980.36,"endTime":2982.97,"body":"that's just crazy. Cool."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2983.03,"endTime":2985.58,"body":"So Thanks, Greg. It has"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2983.03,"endTime":2985.58,"body":"kind of changed my own"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2985.58,"endTime":2988.88,"body":"perspective as well as I worked"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2985.58,"endTime":2988.88,"body":"on this as I teach our"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2988.88,"endTime":2991.97,"body":"regression class. In some ways,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2988.88,"endTime":2991.97,"body":"what we're doing in regression"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2991.97,"endTime":2994.76,"body":"is saying, hey, there's a mean"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2991.97,"endTime":2994.76,"body":"of a distribution, and it's a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2994.76,"endTime":2997.73,"body":"function of these other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2994.76,"endTime":2997.73,"body":"variables. So you could think of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2997.73,"endTime":3001.09,"body":"that as we're taking a parameter"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":2997.73,"endTime":3001.09,"body":"of just a very basic model that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3001.09,"endTime":3003.85,"body":"a distribution has a mean. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3001.09,"endTime":3003.85,"body":"we're saying let's let that mean"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3003.85,"endTime":3005.89,"body":"be a function of other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3003.85,"endTime":3005.89,"body":"variables. And then when we get"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3005.89,"endTime":3009.19,"body":"into moderated regression, now"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3005.89,"endTime":3009.19,"body":"we're letting a slope be a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3009.19,"endTime":3012.58,"body":"function of another variable."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3009.19,"endTime":3012.58,"body":"And as you describe in a path"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3012.58,"endTime":3015.7,"body":"analysis, you could allow direct"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3012.58,"endTime":3015.7,"body":"or indirect effects to be"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3015.7,"endTime":3019.06,"body":"functions of other variables,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3015.7,"endTime":3019.06,"body":"you could allow the correlation"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3019.06,"endTime":3022.81,"body":"between two variables to be a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3019.06,"endTime":3022.81,"body":"function of other variables. I"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3022.81,"endTime":3026.89,"body":"think of the location scale"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3022.81,"endTime":3026.89,"body":"model that Don Hecker developed,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3026.89,"endTime":3030.01,"body":"you're allowing a variance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3026.89,"endTime":3030.01,"body":"parameter to be a function of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3030.01,"endTime":3033.61,"body":"other variables. I think in"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3030.01,"endTime":3033.61,"body":"statistics, maybe because this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3033.61,"endTime":3036.76,"body":"is where the easy stuff was"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3033.61,"endTime":3036.76,"body":"early on, as we've gotten so"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3036.76,"endTime":3040.03,"body":"focused on how to means vary as"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3036.76,"endTime":3040.03,"body":"a function of other variables"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3040.03,"endTime":3042.49,"body":"that we've sort of lost sight"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3040.03,"endTime":3042.49,"body":"of, well, we actually have the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3042.49,"endTime":3045.79,"body":"apparatus now that we could"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3042.49,"endTime":3045.79,"body":"allow lots of potential"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3045.79,"endTime":3049.33,"body":"parameters that describe"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3045.79,"endTime":3049.33,"body":"distributions or bivariate"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3049.33,"endTime":3052.48,"body":"associations or causal effects"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3049.33,"endTime":3052.48,"body":"or whatever they might be, we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3052.48,"endTime":3054.4,"body":"could allow those to various a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3052.48,"endTime":3054.4,"body":"function of other"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3054.4,"endTime":3057.31,"body":"characteristics. It's a more"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3054.4,"endTime":3057.31,"body":"flexible way of thinking that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3057.31,"endTime":3060.61,"body":"opens up hypotheses that we"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3057.31,"endTime":3060.61,"body":"might not have thought of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3060.64,"endTime":3063.43,"body":"otherwise, or at least not"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3060.64,"endTime":3063.43,"body":"thought that could be testable"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3063.46,"endTime":3064.51,"body":"and an optimal way."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3064.6,"endTime":3066.88,"body":"So then, here's my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3064.6,"endTime":3066.88,"body":"question for you. If we think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3066.88,"endTime":3071.89,"body":"about it more broadly, then MNLF"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3066.88,"endTime":3071.89,"body":"a doesn't work anymore, right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3071.89,"endTime":3075.31,"body":"Because that's specific. So what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3071.89,"endTime":3075.31,"body":"do you call this?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3075.34,"endTime":3077.83,"body":"Yeah, Patrick's gonna love"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3075.34,"endTime":3077.83,"body":"this one, though."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3079.24,"endTime":3080.2,"body":"What is it called?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3082.75,"endTime":3085.72,"body":"Somehow, this just came to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3082.75,"endTime":3085.72,"body":"me as an epiphany, a moderated"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3085.72,"endTime":3094.39,"body":"model, we'll call it mod mod."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3085.72,"endTime":3094.39,"body":"Like that. It's mod mod. I don't"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3094.39,"endTime":3096.97,"body":"really have a good name for it."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3094.39,"endTime":3096.97,"body":"A moderated parameter model, a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3096.97,"endTime":3099.85,"body":"conditional parameter model. So"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3096.97,"endTime":3099.85,"body":"we called it parameter"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3099.85,"endTime":3102.61,"body":"moderation models in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3099.85,"endTime":3102.61,"body":"stuff that I had written with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3102.61,"endTime":3105.37,"body":"another person. PMM is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3102.61,"endTime":3105.37,"body":"acronym that we had thrown in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3105.37,"endTime":3105.49,"body":"there."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3105.55,"endTime":3107.8,"body":"That's my homeowner's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3105.55,"endTime":3107.8,"body":"association. So that's no good."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3109.68,"endTime":3112.68,"body":"Okay, yeah, well, no, God,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3109.68,"endTime":3112.68,"body":"we wouldn't want that's out."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3112.68,"endTime":3115.53,"body":"Actually. No, wait, it's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3112.68,"endTime":3115.53,"body":"ppm. So you're good up. Okay."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3115.98,"endTime":3119.82,"body":"Which is parts per million"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3115.98,"endTime":3119.82,"body":"damage. All right. There's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3119.82,"endTime":3122.31,"body":"potential here. And the only"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3119.82,"endTime":3122.31,"body":"thing I really know is that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3122.31,"endTime":3124.26,"body":"we're sure as hell not going"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3122.31,"endTime":3124.26,"body":"with Mod mod."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3128.07,"endTime":3131.55,"body":"So definitely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3128.07,"endTime":3131.55,"body":"generative novel work needs to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3131.55,"endTime":3135.15,"body":"be done on naming the damn"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3131.55,"endTime":3135.15,"body":"thing. I'm not sure I would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3135.15,"endTime":3139.92,"body":"prioritize that. But okay, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3135.15,"endTime":3139.92,"body":"can put that on the list. Beyond"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3139.95,"endTime":3143.37,"body":"naming the model, there are a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3139.95,"endTime":3143.37,"body":"lot of people listening who are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3143.55,"endTime":3147.09,"body":"looking for interesting research"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3143.55,"endTime":3147.09,"body":"projects, their dissertations,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3147.12,"endTime":3151.38,"body":"their grant proposals. What do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3147.12,"endTime":3151.38,"body":"you see as the next battles that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3151.38,"endTime":3153.03,"body":"need to be fought in this war?"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3153.21,"endTime":3156.66,"body":"I mean, I think there are"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3153.21,"endTime":3156.66,"body":"tons of possible interesting"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3156.66,"endTime":3160.74,"body":"applications of the model in a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3156.66,"endTime":3160.74,"body":"substantive context. But I'll"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3160.74,"endTime":3164.37,"body":"kind of focus on where I see"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3160.74,"endTime":3164.37,"body":"quantitative research needing to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3164.37,"endTime":3168.3,"body":"go one is these multi"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3164.37,"endTime":3168.3,"body":"dimensional models, Greg, mass,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3168.33,"endTime":3172.05,"body":"how do you do this with multiple"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3168.33,"endTime":3172.05,"body":"factors. And it's hard because"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3172.08,"endTime":3175.95,"body":"it is computationally expensive"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3172.08,"endTime":3175.95,"body":"to do multiple dimensions. And"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3175.95,"endTime":3178.89,"body":"maybe there are clever people"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3175.95,"endTime":3178.89,"body":"out there who will figure out"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3178.89,"endTime":3182.01,"body":"better ways to estimate these"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3178.89,"endTime":3182.01,"body":"that makes that problem go away."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3182.07,"endTime":3186.42,"body":"Also embedded in there is that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3182.07,"endTime":3186.42,"body":"we don't really have good ways"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3186.42,"endTime":3189.99,"body":"to parameterize the covariance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3186.42,"endTime":3189.99,"body":"matrix. So if you have two"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3189.99,"endTime":3194.04,"body":"factors, okay, I can do some"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3189.99,"endTime":3194.04,"body":"sleight of hand using a Fisher's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3194.04,"endTime":3197.01,"body":"Z transformation and make sure"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3194.04,"endTime":3197.01,"body":"that that correlation stays"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3197.01,"endTime":3200.25,"body":"between negative one on one and"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3197.01,"endTime":3200.25,"body":"doesn't wander outside of that"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3200.25,"endTime":3204.06,"body":"interval. But if you have three"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3200.25,"endTime":3204.06,"body":"factors, I can keep any one of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3204.06,"endTime":3206.7,"body":"those bivariate correlations"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3204.06,"endTime":3206.7,"body":"between negative one and one,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3206.7,"endTime":3209.22,"body":"but I don't have a good way of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3206.7,"endTime":3209.22,"body":"ensuring that that covariance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3209.22,"endTime":3212.64,"body":"matrix is always positive"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3209.22,"endTime":3212.64,"body":"definite at all levels of the"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3212.64,"endTime":3215.28,"body":"background variable. So I think"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3212.64,"endTime":3215.28,"body":"there's got to be a better way"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3215.34,"endTime":3219.06,"body":"of conditioning, a covariance"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3215.34,"endTime":3219.06,"body":"matrix like a covariance matrix"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3219.06,"endTime":3223.23,"body":"among factors on background"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3219.06,"endTime":3223.23,"body":"variables like age, and so"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3223.23,"endTime":3225.84,"body":"forth. So I think that's a"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3223.23,"endTime":3225.84,"body":"potentially interesting area of"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3225.84,"endTime":3229.98,"body":"expansion related to the multi"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3225.84,"endTime":3229.98,"body":"dimensional is doing all this"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3229.98,"endTime":3233.46,"body":"stuff in a longitudinal setting."},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3229.98,"endTime":3233.46,"body":"And that's some stuff that a few"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3233.46,"endTime":3236.13,"body":"of my colleagues and students"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3233.46,"endTime":3236.13,"body":"are working on now have a very"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3236.13,"endTime":3238.74,"body":"talented student, Marco Chen,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3236.13,"endTime":3238.74,"body":"who's working on one"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3238.74,"endTime":3242.01,"body":"longitudinal application that's"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3238.74,"endTime":3242.01,"body":"going to be multi dimensional,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3242.01,"endTime":3244.71,"body":"because you've got to factor at"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3242.01,"endTime":3244.71,"body":"every time point, or you've got"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3244.71,"endTime":3247.62,"body":"to deal with this multi"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3244.71,"endTime":3247.62,"body":"dimensionality as you're trying"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3247.62,"endTime":3250.74,"body":"to extend this into longitudinal"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3247.62,"endTime":3250.74,"body":"settings. And I'm sure there'll"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3250.74,"endTime":3254.58,"body":"be lots of room for expansions"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3250.74,"endTime":3254.58,"body":"in that direction as well."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3254.61,"endTime":3256.59,"body":"I think there's a lot to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3254.61,"endTime":3256.59,"body":"think about here. It's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3256.59,"endTime":3260.13,"body":"incredibly rich and potential"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3256.59,"endTime":3260.13,"body":"topics for people to study."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3260.34,"endTime":3262.89,"body":"Again, I will concede that it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3260.34,"endTime":3262.89,"body":"does change the way that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3262.89,"endTime":3265.53,"body":"think about a lot of things. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3262.89,"endTime":3265.53,"body":"I'm pretty sure that when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3265.53,"endTime":3268.92,"body":"Patrick comes up next time, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3265.53,"endTime":3268.92,"body":"he and I go sit on our favorite"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3268.92,"endTime":3270.6,"body":"bench in the Inner Harbor,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3271.65,"endTime":3276.78,"body":"hi time here and even"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3271.65,"endTime":3276.78,"body":"his favorite band, I want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3276.78,"endTime":3283.14,"body":"thank Dan for coming today. Van"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3276.78,"endTime":3283.14,"body":"Halen. Okay, thanks, everybody."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3283.26,"endTime":3286.86,"body":"We appreciate your time. We hope"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3283.26,"endTime":3286.86,"body":"you found this of some use. Take"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3286.86,"endTime":3287.34,"body":"care,"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3287.55,"endTime":3290.43,"body":"Patrick, why don't you go"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3287.55,"endTime":3290.43,"body":"ahead and drop off Greg. I think"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3290.43,"endTime":3294.6,"body":"we have lots of things to make"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3290.43,"endTime":3294.6,"body":"some comparisons on hey, I can"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3294.6,"endTime":3298.02,"body":"give you some advice on how to"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3294.6,"endTime":3298.02,"body":"deal with some things that might"},{"speaker":"Dan","startTime":3298.05,"endTime":3300.45,"body":"come up II"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3302.01,"endTime":3304.08,"body":"Oh, wait, I'm host of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3302.01,"endTime":3304.08,"body":"the zoom."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3304.11,"endTime":3306.48,"body":"No, no, don't stop yet. I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3304.11,"endTime":3306.48,"body":"want to make just one point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3306.48,"endTime":3313.53,"body":"before. Thanks so much for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3306.48,"endTime":3313.53,"body":"joining us. Don't forget to tell"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3313.53,"endTime":3317.16,"body":"your friends to subscribe to us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3313.53,"endTime":3317.16,"body":"on Apple podcasts, Spotify, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3317.16,"endTime":3319.62,"body":"wherever they go for things that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3317.16,"endTime":3319.62,"body":"are more bearable to listen to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3319.62,"endTime":3322.26,"body":"than hearing your partner go on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3319.62,"endTime":3322.26,"body":"and on about how great their"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3322.26,"endTime":3326.28,"body":"other friends are. Even if they"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3322.26,"endTime":3326.28,"body":"were an Eagle Scout and their"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3326.31,"endTime":3328.8,"body":"hair does this cool, whoosh"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3326.31,"endTime":3328.8,"body":"thing when they throw their head"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3328.8,"endTime":3331.47,"body":"back and laugh at your jokes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3328.8,"endTime":3331.47,"body":"that aren't even funny. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3331.47,"endTime":3336.39,"body":"you've told like 10 times. You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3331.47,"endTime":3336.39,"body":"can follow us on Twitter where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3336.39,"endTime":3340.5,"body":"we Patrick and I specifically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3336.39,"endTime":3340.5,"body":"are at quantity pod and visit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3340.53,"endTime":3344.1,"body":"our website quantity pod.org a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3340.53,"endTime":3344.1,"body":"monument to all we have built"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3344.1,"endTime":3346.41,"body":"and shared together, where you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3344.1,"endTime":3346.41,"body":"can leave us a message and find"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3346.41,"endTime":3349.44,"body":"organized playlists and show"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3346.41,"endTime":3349.44,"body":"notes. Listen to past episodes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3349.44,"endTime":3351.45,"body":"and other fun stuff. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3349.44,"endTime":3351.45,"body":"finally, you can get cool"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3351.45,"endTime":3354.45,"body":"quantitative merch like shirts,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3351.45,"endTime":3354.45,"body":"mugs, stickers and spiral"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3354.45,"endTime":3357.21,"body":"notebooks from Red bubble.com"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3354.45,"endTime":3357.21,"body":"Where All proceeds go to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3357.21,"endTime":3359.85,"body":"donorschoose.org. To help"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3357.21,"endTime":3359.85,"body":"support low income schools,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3360.06,"endTime":3362.28,"body":"you've been listening to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3360.06,"endTime":3362.28,"body":"quantitative the podcast whose"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3362.28,"endTime":3365.73,"body":"name is actually clear, and not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3362.28,"endTime":3365.73,"body":"some dumb acronym that you can't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3365.73,"endTime":3369.78,"body":"even pronounce. Today's episode"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3365.73,"endTime":3369.78,"body":"has been sponsored by Patrick's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3369.78,"endTime":3372.6,"body":"favorite jazz musician Miles"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3369.78,"endTime":3372.6,"body":"Davis, or for those of you and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3372.6,"endTime":3376.65,"body":"other places in the world 1.6"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3372.6,"endTime":3376.65,"body":"kilometers Davis and by posthoc"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3376.65,"endTime":3379.11,"body":"power analysis which contributes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3376.65,"endTime":3379.11,"body":"about as much to our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3379.11,"endTime":3382.17,"body":"understanding as signs of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3379.11,"endTime":3382.17,"body":"zodiac. Patrick sign by the way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3382.2,"endTime":3385.35,"body":"is Taurus which also like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3382.2,"endTime":3385.35,"body":"posthoc power analysis is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3385.35,"endTime":3390.18,"body":"symbolized as bull. And finally,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3385.35,"endTime":3390.18,"body":"my intent to treat because I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3390.18,"endTime":3393.06,"body":"have an intent to treat myself"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3390.18,"endTime":3393.06,"body":"to a giant pitcher of margaritas"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3393.06,"endTime":3398.61,"body":"after this episode. This is most"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3393.06,"endTime":3398.61,"body":"definitely not NPR or as Dan"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3398.61,"endTime":3399.33,"body":"might pronounce it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3404.37,"endTime":3405.96,"body":"I'm okay. I'm okay."}]}