{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":4.38,"endTime":7.02,"body":"Hi everybody. My name is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":4.38,"endTime":7.02,"body":"Greg Hancock and along with my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":7.02,"endTime":9.42,"body":"friend whose instructions were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":7.02,"endTime":9.42,"body":"thrown out a long time ago"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":9.45,"endTime":12.48,"body":"Patrick Curran, we make up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":9.45,"endTime":12.48,"body":"quantity food. We're a podcast"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":12.48,"endTime":14.73,"body":"dedicated to all things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":12.48,"endTime":14.73,"body":"quantitative, ranging from the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":14.73,"endTime":17.64,"body":"irrelevant to the completely"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":14.73,"endTime":17.64,"body":"irrelevant. In this episode, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":17.64,"endTime":20.55,"body":"talk about the frequent gap"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":17.64,"endTime":20.55,"body":"between research questions and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":20.55,"endTime":23.85,"body":"methods and ways to think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":20.55,"endTime":23.85,"body":"reengineering your variables,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":23.88,"endTime":28.02,"body":"your parameters or your entire"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":23.88,"endTime":28.02,"body":"model to help get what you want."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":28.41,"endTime":32.37,"body":"Along the way. We also mentioned"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":28.41,"endTime":32.37,"body":"living in the dorms, Greek gods"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":32.37,"endTime":35.46,"body":"sculpture rockets, not living in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":32.37,"endTime":35.46,"body":"the dorms, Christmas tree"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":35.46,"endTime":40.59,"body":"timers, Def Leppard, Legos, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":35.46,"endTime":40.59,"body":"his flower shop. laser cannons,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":40.92,"endTime":45.6,"body":"chin music, the tail wagging the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":40.92,"endTime":45.6,"body":"dog, a zero on the sa t, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":45.6,"endTime":49.8,"body":"Millennium Falcon. Green Day,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":45.6,"endTime":49.8,"body":"stupid human tricks. Tony"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":49.8,"endTime":53.61,"body":"Robbins, Stuart Smalley and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":49.8,"endTime":53.61,"body":"Ironman. We hope you enjoyed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":53.61,"endTime":56.43,"body":"today's episode. Did you live in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":53.61,"endTime":56.43,"body":"the dorms when you went to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":56.43,"endTime":56.94,"body":"college"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.03,"endTime":60.0,"body":"until I was asked to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.03,"endTime":60.0,"body":"not live in the dorms?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":61.259,"endTime":62.939,"body":"Okay, so one semester."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.78,"endTime":67.47,"body":"It was almost two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.78,"endTime":67.47,"body":"semesters, but it involved a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":67.47,"endTime":70.86,"body":"friend of mine who was an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":67.47,"endTime":70.86,"body":"aeronautical engineer. He took a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":70.86,"endTime":76.65,"body":"sculpting class, he sculpted the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":70.86,"endTime":76.65,"body":"head of some Greek God, he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":76.65,"endTime":80.82,"body":"brought it back to the dorm. He"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":76.65,"endTime":80.82,"body":"and I decided to fill it with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":80.82,"endTime":84.9,"body":"gunpowder from Estes rocket"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":80.82,"endTime":84.9,"body":"engines and see if we could blow"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":84.9,"endTime":88.77,"body":"it up. And it turned out that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":84.9,"endTime":88.77,"body":"there was no explosion at all."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":88.77,"endTime":93.54,"body":"But we made a giant Estes rocket"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":88.77,"endTime":93.54,"body":"out of the shape of a Greek god,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":93.75,"endTime":99.18,"body":"which ricocheted up and down the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":93.75,"endTime":99.18,"body":"hallway. I was asked to find"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":99.18,"endTime":100.74,"body":"alternative residency."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":101.88,"endTime":105.69,"body":"I lived at home for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":101.88,"endTime":105.69,"body":"first three years or so because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":105.69,"endTime":108.72,"body":"I had a single dad and my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":105.69,"endTime":108.72,"body":"brother was still in high school"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":108.72,"endTime":112.26,"body":"and so I was kind of helping out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":108.72,"endTime":112.26,"body":"at home. But as Chris got older"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":112.26,"endTime":115.5,"body":"and was approaching his later"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":112.26,"endTime":115.5,"body":"years, I moved into the dorms, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":115.5,"endTime":119.85,"body":"had this massive stereo with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":115.5,"endTime":119.85,"body":"speakers that were waist high."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":120.81,"endTime":125.13,"body":"If you want to wake up to a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":120.81,"endTime":125.13,"body":"certain song, and it's 1984,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":125.28,"endTime":129.84,"body":"your options are a lot more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":125.28,"endTime":129.84,"body":"limited. I had music on a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":129.84,"endTime":135.21,"body":"cassette. So I put the tape into"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":129.84,"endTime":135.21,"body":"my stereo and I put it on the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":135.21,"endTime":138.72,"body":"song that I thought would be the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":135.21,"endTime":138.72,"body":"most totally amazing song to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":138.72,"endTime":143.73,"body":"wake up to. I pressed play, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":138.72,"endTime":143.73,"body":"had the power out to the entire"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":143.73,"endTime":148.05,"body":"stereo because it was routed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":143.73,"endTime":148.05,"body":"through and this is really the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":148.05,"endTime":154.83,"body":"key, a Christmas tree timer. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":148.05,"endTime":154.83,"body":"I had my entire stereo routed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":154.83,"endTime":158.16,"body":"through a Christmas tree light"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":154.83,"endTime":158.16,"body":"timer that at roughly the time I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":158.16,"endTime":164.46,"body":"wanted came on at probably 120"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":158.16,"endTime":164.46,"body":"decibels blaring the song that I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":164.46,"endTime":170.4,"body":"wanted, and the song that I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":164.46,"endTime":170.4,"body":"wanted in 1984 was high and dry"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":170.4,"endTime":171.57,"body":"by Def Leppard."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":179.25,"endTime":182.85,"body":"The irony of the whole thing was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":179.25,"endTime":182.85,"body":"that when a Christmas tree timer"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":182.88,"endTime":188.7,"body":"goes off, it makes such an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":182.88,"endTime":188.7,"body":"insanely loud clip. That every"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":188.7,"endTime":192.42,"body":"morning, I woke up to this click"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":188.7,"endTime":192.42,"body":"and then the song came on, like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":192.42,"endTime":198.21,"body":"eight seconds later, I was gonna"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":192.42,"endTime":198.21,"body":"wake up to a particular song. It"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":198.21,"endTime":200.91,"body":"just took a matter of putting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":198.21,"endTime":200.91,"body":"the pieces together so that I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":200.91,"endTime":201.6,"body":"could do that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":201.63,"endTime":205.11,"body":"In contrast, I simply"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":201.63,"endTime":205.11,"body":"slept through my class."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":206.7,"endTime":209.52,"body":"But that was basically the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":206.7,"endTime":209.52,"body":"college version of me. Because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":209.52,"endTime":213.0,"body":"when I was a kid, my dad gave me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":209.52,"endTime":213.0,"body":"complete open access to his"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":213.0,"endTime":216.42,"body":"workshop. Son, you're six years"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":213.0,"endTime":216.42,"body":"old. Now I think it's time that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":216.42,"endTime":221.31,"body":"you use the bandsaw. So I just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":216.42,"endTime":221.31,"body":"love building all kinds of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":221.31,"endTime":221.94,"body":"things."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":221.97,"endTime":225.87,"body":"So my brother has two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":221.97,"endTime":225.87,"body":"wonderful daughters. And for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":225.87,"endTime":230.16,"body":"longtime listeners, his"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":225.87,"endTime":230.16,"body":"daughters are Jane and Maggie."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":230.19,"endTime":234.75,"body":"And they were the quantity food"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":230.19,"endTime":234.75,"body":"community players that read this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":234.75,"endTime":238.62,"body":"some net messages as part of a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":234.75,"endTime":238.62,"body":"holiday episode a couple of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":238.62,"endTime":239.43,"body":"years ago."},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":239.67,"endTime":243.48,"body":"Hi, Les. This is"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":239.67,"endTime":243.48,"body":"incredibly ridiculous. And it"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":243.48,"endTime":246.75,"body":"has been for years. This"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":243.48,"endTime":246.75,"body":"nonsense must come to an end at"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":246.75,"endTime":248.91,"body":"some point best car."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":251.16,"endTime":255.24,"body":"They are addicted to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":251.16,"endTime":255.24,"body":"Legos. When you and I came up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":255.24,"endTime":257.88,"body":"through the ranks you just got a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":255.24,"endTime":257.88,"body":"box of Legos."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":257.06,"endTime":261.89,"body":"Hey! Kids! Look! Legos"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":257.06,"endTime":261.89,"body":"is here!"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":262.5,"endTime":266.76,"body":"Well, now you get a box"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":262.5,"endTime":266.76,"body":"of Legos that build something"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":266.79,"endTime":271.05,"body":"with instructions, and you damn"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":266.79,"endTime":271.05,"body":"well better put them together"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":271.05,"endTime":274.47,"body":"the way that the instructions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":271.05,"endTime":274.47,"body":"tell you to or else you won't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":274.47,"endTime":277.56,"body":"get the thing that's on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":274.47,"endTime":277.56,"body":"front of the box right now what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":277.56,"endTime":280.98,"body":"I like about what my brother and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":277.56,"endTime":280.98,"body":"daughters have done, they must"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.98,"endTime":285.6,"body":"have 1000s and 1000s of Lego"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.98,"endTime":285.6,"body":"pieces. They unsnap them all and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.6,"endTime":289.59,"body":"they made a giant pile in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.6,"endTime":289.59,"body":"middle of this side room."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":289.68,"endTime":293.16,"body":"Awesome. And they'll say Hey,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":289.68,"endTime":293.16,"body":"who wants to Lego they use it as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":293.16,"endTime":297.72,"body":"a verb and the three of them put"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":293.16,"endTime":297.72,"body":"on music lay on the floor around"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.72,"endTime":302.85,"body":"this giant pile of Legos. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.72,"endTime":302.85,"body":"they build whatever their heart"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":302.85,"endTime":306.15,"body":"desires, there are no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":302.85,"endTime":306.15,"body":"instructions, somebody will"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":306.15,"endTime":309.42,"body":"shout out, I need a three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":306.15,"endTime":309.42,"body":"poster, I need a short corner, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":309.42,"endTime":312.78,"body":"need a long cord. And they have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":309.42,"endTime":312.78,"body":"this whole obtuse language about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":312.81,"endTime":316.59,"body":"what each of the pieces are."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":312.81,"endTime":316.59,"body":"Right? I was part of this when I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":316.59,"endTime":320.97,"body":"visited a while ago. And I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":316.59,"endTime":320.97,"body":"thought, oh my god, this is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":320.97,"endTime":322.35,"body":"quantitative methodology."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":324.42,"endTime":327.6,"body":"It is quantitative"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":324.42,"endTime":327.6,"body":"methodology. Even now, when you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":327.6,"endTime":331.32,"body":"get the kits, you start off when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":327.6,"endTime":331.32,"body":"you're little might have 20"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":331.32,"endTime":335.1,"body":"pieces, 30 pieces, and there's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":331.32,"endTime":335.1,"body":"picture on the box and you open"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":335.1,"endTime":338.46,"body":"it up and you get instructions."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":335.1,"endTime":338.46,"body":"Maybe the next set that you have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":338.49,"endTime":341.58,"body":"has 100 pieces and you build"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":338.49,"endTime":341.58,"body":"something else and the next set,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":341.58,"endTime":344.88,"body":"right? Eventually you work your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":341.58,"endTime":344.88,"body":"way up to the Millennium Falcon"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":344.88,"endTime":348.6,"body":"or Hogwarts, Diagon Alley, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":344.88,"endTime":348.6,"body":"what do you do you put them"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":348.6,"endTime":352.38,"body":"together and then you just look"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":348.6,"endTime":352.38,"body":"at them? No, you get this giant"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":352.38,"endTime":354.81,"body":"pile, I love that image of your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":352.38,"endTime":354.81,"body":"family."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":354.9,"endTime":359.37,"body":"The creativity is some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":354.9,"endTime":359.37,"body":"of the stuff that his daughters"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":359.37,"endTime":364.35,"body":"make. The ones I like, are a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":359.37,"endTime":364.35,"body":"little bit more subtle, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":364.35,"endTime":368.91,"body":"there's like Annie's flower"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":364.35,"endTime":368.91,"body":"shop. But there's a laser cannon"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":368.91,"endTime":375.96,"body":"from those I love. I don't want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":368.91,"endTime":375.96,"body":"to overdo an analogy. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":375.96,"endTime":379.83,"body":"following the instructions with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":375.96,"endTime":379.83,"body":"the Legos that you get is kind"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":379.83,"endTime":384.03,"body":"of like your regression class."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":379.83,"endTime":384.03,"body":"Here's one predictor, here's two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":384.03,"endTime":386.55,"body":"predictors, we can do this. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":384.03,"endTime":386.55,"body":"then we do this. And then we do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":386.55,"endTime":389.94,"body":"this. And one of the big things"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":386.55,"endTime":389.94,"body":"that you should do in taking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.94,"endTime":392.64,"body":"regression is get to a point"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.94,"endTime":392.64,"body":"where you understand what are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":392.64,"endTime":394.98,"body":"the strengths regression, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":392.64,"endTime":394.98,"body":"are the limitations of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":394.98,"endTime":398.55,"body":"regression, Oh, I see this. It's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":394.98,"endTime":398.55,"body":"the unique effect of this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":398.55,"endTime":402.63,"body":"predictor above and beyond all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":398.55,"endTime":402.63,"body":"other predictors. But that's not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":402.63,"endTime":405.9,"body":"what my theory says. So you take"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":402.63,"endTime":405.9,"body":"a class in structural equation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":405.9,"endTime":410.07,"body":"modeling and move on, you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":405.9,"endTime":410.07,"body":"building the things that are in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":410.07,"endTime":413.58,"body":"the instructions when you get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":410.07,"endTime":413.58,"body":"your Lego kit. And I think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":413.58,"endTime":417.27,"body":"that's insanely important to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":413.58,"endTime":417.27,"body":"learn how to do. And there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":417.27,"endTime":421.05,"body":"also a satisfaction of holding"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":417.27,"endTime":421.05,"body":"the thing afterwards and saying,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":421.2,"endTime":425.43,"body":"Here's what I made. Yep. But at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":421.2,"endTime":425.43,"body":"some point, you say, Where am I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":425.43,"endTime":427.23,"body":"going to put this laser cannon?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":428.91,"endTime":431.97,"body":"You sit, you don't want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":428.91,"endTime":431.97,"body":"torture and analogy, dude, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":431.97,"endTime":438.42,"body":"whole episode is torture in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":431.97,"endTime":438.42,"body":"analogy with laser cannon. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":438.42,"endTime":440.61,"body":"this is exactly what happens,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":438.42,"endTime":440.61,"body":"right? You get all of these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":440.61,"endTime":443.64,"body":"boxes of Legos. And you can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":440.61,"endTime":443.64,"body":"imagine them sitting on the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":443.64,"endTime":447.0,"body":"shelf assembled are back in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":443.64,"endTime":447.0,"body":"their original boxes. You know,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":447.0,"endTime":449.76,"body":"we learned a t test. And we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":447.0,"endTime":449.76,"body":"learned correlation and simple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":449.76,"endTime":453.0,"body":"regression. And maybe you learn"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":449.76,"endTime":453.0,"body":"a traditional analysis of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":453.0,"endTime":456.36,"body":"variance, maybe you move into"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":453.0,"endTime":456.36,"body":"regression or the general linear"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":456.36,"endTime":460.41,"body":"model. But each of these things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":456.36,"endTime":460.41,"body":"that you learn is like a kit,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":460.44,"endTime":464.16,"body":"right? And they sit up there in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":460.44,"endTime":464.16,"body":"the box. And the idea of you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":464.16,"endTime":467.28,"body":"getting acquainted with these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":464.16,"endTime":467.28,"body":"kits, at least as it seems to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":467.28,"endTime":470.4,"body":"start is that as you develop"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":467.28,"endTime":470.4,"body":"your own research question, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":470.4,"endTime":474.12,"body":"will go over to the shelf with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":470.4,"endTime":474.12,"body":"all of your Lego kits, and you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":474.12,"endTime":477.33,"body":"will reach up there and you will"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":474.12,"endTime":477.33,"body":"pull the thing off that suits"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":477.33,"endTime":480.57,"body":"your particular research"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":477.33,"endTime":480.57,"body":"question. Problem is it doesn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":480.6,"endTime":482.94,"body":"always fit your research"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":480.6,"endTime":482.94,"body":"question, right?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":483.12,"endTime":487.65,"body":"And then you get into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":483.12,"endTime":487.65,"body":"the tail wags the dog. Yes. What"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":487.65,"endTime":492.99,"body":"that means is the kit that you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":487.65,"endTime":492.99,"body":"need for your question doesn't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":492.99,"endTime":497.67,"body":"exist. So you're going to pick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":492.99,"endTime":497.67,"body":"one that's on the shelf that you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":497.67,"endTime":502.02,"body":"can include is closest to what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":497.67,"endTime":502.02,"body":"you need. But you may actually"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":502.02,"endTime":505.92,"body":"start modifying your theoretical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":502.02,"endTime":505.92,"body":"question and your research"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":505.92,"endTime":510.36,"body":"hypotheses in order to fit that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":505.92,"endTime":510.36,"body":"kit because you can't do what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":510.36,"endTime":514.38,"body":"you really want. And so your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":510.36,"endTime":514.38,"body":"selection of a statistical model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":514.38,"endTime":518.7,"body":"is actually dictating your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":514.38,"endTime":518.7,"body":"research hypotheses. Instead of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":518.7,"endTime":521.91,"body":"your research hypotheses"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":518.7,"endTime":521.91,"body":"dictating your statistical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":521.91,"endTime":522.75,"body":"model. I can't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":522.75,"endTime":525.54,"body":"tell you how many times"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":522.75,"endTime":525.54,"body":"I've heard somebody say, I can't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":525.54,"endTime":528.69,"body":"really get at that question with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":525.54,"endTime":528.69,"body":"this method. So I'm just going"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":528.69,"endTime":531.93,"body":"to focus on the other questions,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":528.69,"endTime":531.93,"body":"because I can really get at that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":531.93,"endTime":536.01,"body":"here. And there's a part of me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":531.93,"endTime":536.01,"body":"that is just so sad to hear"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":536.01,"endTime":539.79,"body":"those words, because I don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":536.01,"endTime":539.79,"body":"want you to say, I have to build"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":539.79,"endTime":543.12,"body":"Annie's flower shop and only"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":539.79,"endTime":543.12,"body":"Annie's flower shop, I want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":543.12,"endTime":546.96,"body":"hear someone say, dammit, I need"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":543.12,"endTime":546.96,"body":"a laser cannon up on the corner"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.96,"endTime":550.23,"body":"there. And what are we going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.96,"endTime":550.23,"body":"do to regression? Or what are we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":550.23,"endTime":552.36,"body":"going to do with all of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":550.23,"endTime":552.36,"body":"pieces that we have at our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":552.36,"endTime":555.12,"body":"disposal to be able to get that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":552.36,"endTime":555.12,"body":"laser cannon on top of any"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":555.12,"endTime":555.84,"body":"flower shop?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":555.87,"endTime":558.99,"body":"The thing that worries"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":555.87,"endTime":558.99,"body":"me even a little bit more is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":559.02,"endTime":563.61,"body":"when you take the box off that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":559.02,"endTime":563.61,"body":"exists and you're testing your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":563.61,"endTime":568.14,"body":"hypotheses in a way that aren't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":563.61,"endTime":568.14,"body":"actually being tested. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":568.14,"endTime":572.97,"body":"you're interpreting results in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":568.14,"endTime":572.97,"body":"way that is not consistent with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":573.0,"endTime":576.09,"body":"what the intro the method"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":573.0,"endTime":576.09,"body":"results in the discussion all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":576.09,"endTime":580.71,"body":"put together. And I think that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":576.09,"endTime":580.71,"body":"very common as well. You have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":580.71,"endTime":584.04,"body":"baron and Kenny bolted together"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":580.71,"endTime":584.04,"body":"tested mediation and then your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":584.04,"endTime":588.87,"body":"discussion talks about an upward"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":584.04,"endTime":588.87,"body":"spiral of increasing negative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":588.87,"endTime":591.81,"body":"affectivity. Those are not the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":588.87,"endTime":591.81,"body":"same."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":591.84,"endTime":594.15,"body":"You have the story arc"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":591.84,"endTime":594.15,"body":"then it starts with your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":594.15,"endTime":597.39,"body":"introduction and then by God"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":594.15,"endTime":597.39,"body":"your brain already has some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":597.42,"endTime":601.29,"body":"version of a conclusion that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":597.42,"endTime":601.29,"body":"you're hoping for and you need"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":601.29,"endTime":604.44,"body":"that middle part, you need the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":601.29,"endTime":604.44,"body":"whole methodological section,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":604.44,"endTime":608.46,"body":"the results section, all of that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":604.44,"endTime":608.46,"body":"to rise to make that arc"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":608.46,"endTime":612.18,"body":"legitimate. And I hate it when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":608.46,"endTime":612.18,"body":"there's this falling down in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":612.18,"endTime":616.38,"body":"middle. It makes the conclusions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":612.18,"endTime":616.38,"body":"in the end tenuous at best, when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":616.38,"endTime":618.54,"body":"it didn't necessarily have to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":616.38,"endTime":618.54,"body":"when there might have been some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":618.54,"endTime":621.75,"body":"clever way to reengineer. That"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":618.54,"endTime":621.75,"body":"middle part, you go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":621.749,"endTime":625.619,"body":"up to your shelf, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":621.749,"endTime":625.619,"body":"you've got two separate boxes,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":625.649,"endTime":628.739,"body":"and you say, why won't part of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":625.649,"endTime":628.739,"body":"this from this box and I want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":628.739,"endTime":631.559,"body":"part of this from this box?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":628.739,"endTime":631.559,"body":"Because Annie's flower shop"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":631.559,"endTime":636.359,"body":"needs a laser cannon. You put"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":631.559,"endTime":636.359,"body":"them together, but then you say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":636.479,"endTime":640.949,"body":"Oh, this laser cannon is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":636.479,"endTime":640.949,"body":"awesome. I want to tell other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":640.949,"endTime":644.339,"body":"people how to build this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":640.949,"endTime":644.339,"body":"themselves. And oh, my God,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":644.339,"endTime":646.079,"body":"that's a psych methods paper."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":647.52,"endTime":650.28,"body":"Right? That's exactly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":647.52,"endTime":650.28,"body":"that's exactly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":650.28,"endTime":650.55,"body":"it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":650.64,"endTime":655.11,"body":"I think you just described"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":650.64,"endTime":655.11,"body":"most of our career. Well, maybe"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":655.11,"endTime":658.83,"body":"we can start small with this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":655.11,"endTime":658.83,"body":"idea as a theme, right, maybe"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":658.89,"endTime":662.31,"body":"with some of the earliest models"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":658.89,"endTime":662.31,"body":"that we learned and how we can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":662.31,"endTime":665.52,"body":"think about them in terms of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":662.31,"endTime":665.52,"body":"this idea of Legos, or in terms"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":665.52,"endTime":668.13,"body":"of moving the pieces around to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":665.52,"endTime":668.13,"body":"get what you want."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":668.16,"endTime":671.37,"body":"All right, let's be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":668.16,"endTime":671.37,"body":"selfish. You've got a nice"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":671.37,"endTime":675.42,"body":"flower shop, but you don't have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":671.37,"endTime":675.42,"body":"a laser cannon to protect. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":675.42,"endTime":679.08,"body":"Andy needs a laser cannon."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":675.42,"endTime":679.08,"body":"Clearly, you have the kit for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":679.08,"endTime":682.35,"body":"the Millennium Falcon that has a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":679.08,"endTime":682.35,"body":"whole lot of laser cannons."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":682.41,"endTime":685.29,"body":"Because we've only been talking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":682.41,"endTime":685.29,"body":"about one laser cannon for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":685.29,"endTime":690.0,"body":"Andy's flower shop. My niece"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":685.29,"endTime":690.0,"body":"Maggie actually had it bristling"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":690.03,"endTime":691.41,"body":"with laser cannons."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":691.47,"endTime":694.32,"body":"What about maybe some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":691.47,"endTime":694.32,"body":"photon torpedoes from the USS"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":694.32,"endTime":697.62,"body":"Enterprise, pew pew pew pew pew"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":702.42,"endTime":706.38,"body":"what we want to do is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":702.42,"endTime":706.38,"body":"to say alright, I learned how to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":706.38,"endTime":709.59,"body":"use the Legos I've learned how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":706.38,"endTime":709.59,"body":"to build the thing that's in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":709.59,"endTime":713.82,"body":"picture. And now I want to start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":709.59,"endTime":713.82,"body":"manipulating that toward my own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":713.82,"endTime":719.7,"body":"end. So the point is, how can we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":713.82,"endTime":719.7,"body":"manipulate what we have in order"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":719.7,"endTime":722.82,"body":"to get what we need? That I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":719.7,"endTime":722.82,"body":"think should be the arc?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":722.849,"endTime":726.149,"body":"Okay, so if we think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":722.849,"endTime":726.149,"body":"it, maybe in terms of what the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":726.149,"endTime":729.899,"body":"parts are, we have on the table"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":726.149,"endTime":729.899,"body":"to be able to move around? What"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":729.899,"endTime":730.889,"body":"should we start off with?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":731.099,"endTime":734.219,"body":"I was on the back deck"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":731.099,"endTime":734.219,"body":"last night fall has come in full"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":734.219,"endTime":738.209,"body":"force to North Carolina and it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":734.219,"endTime":738.209,"body":"was absolutely beautiful. And I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":738.209,"endTime":745.259,"body":"had my clipboard and my fountain"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":738.209,"endTime":745.259,"body":"pen. What year is this? $25,000"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":745.259,"endTime":748.919,"body":"in computers, and I have my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":745.259,"endTime":748.919,"body":"clipboard and fountain pen. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":748.919,"endTime":754.229,"body":"the first thing I put down is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":748.919,"endTime":754.229,"body":"let's start easy. How can we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":754.259,"endTime":758.819,"body":"manipulate the numerical scales"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":754.259,"endTime":758.819,"body":"of our measures to achieve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":758.819,"endTime":762.029,"body":"things we want? Okay, so what do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":758.819,"endTime":762.029,"body":"you mean the scales? One of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":762.029,"endTime":765.899,"body":"first things we teach you about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":762.029,"endTime":765.899,"body":"as an undergrad is The Maltese"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":765.899,"endTime":767.999,"body":"Falcon. Do you remember the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":765.899,"endTime":767.999,"body":"Maltese Falcon?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":768.72,"endTime":769.47,"body":"Not the chin?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":771.93,"endTime":772.8,"body":"Chin music."},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":774.63,"endTime":777.21,"body":"People lose teeth"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":774.63,"endTime":777.21,"body":"talking like that. You want to"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":777.21,"endTime":778.53,"body":"hang around? You'll be polite."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":779.04,"endTime":783.03,"body":"We have four broad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":779.04,"endTime":783.03,"body":"types of scale Noir. Why is it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":783.03,"endTime":786.66,"body":"The Maltese Falcon film noir?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":783.03,"endTime":786.66,"body":"And why are nominal ordinal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":786.66,"endTime":790.83,"body":"interval ratio nominal, we stand"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":786.66,"endTime":790.83,"body":"in front of you. And we say a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":790.83,"endTime":795.36,"body":"nominal variable is name. It's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":790.83,"endTime":795.36,"body":"characteristic. It's a grouping,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":795.39,"endTime":800.1,"body":"it has no numerical value, it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":795.39,"endTime":800.1,"body":"has no quantitative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":800.1,"endTime":804.9,"body":"characteristics. And we hammer"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":800.1,"endTime":804.9,"body":"you about this. And then we say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":804.93,"endTime":807.9,"body":"well, unless you want to make it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":804.93,"endTime":807.9,"body":"zero and one and use it as a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.9,"endTime":812.19,"body":"predictor in your model. And so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.9,"endTime":812.19,"body":"I am going to start super"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":812.19,"endTime":818.01,"body":"simple. We take what we told you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":812.19,"endTime":818.01,"body":"was a characterization that has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":818.01,"endTime":821.64,"body":"no quantitative value. And we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":818.01,"endTime":821.64,"body":"not only going to assign it a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":821.64,"endTime":825.51,"body":"zero and a one, but we are going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":821.64,"endTime":825.51,"body":"to interpret the model implied"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":825.51,"endTime":829.47,"body":"mean of the outcome that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":825.51,"endTime":829.47,"body":"associated with moving on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":829.47,"endTime":835.23,"body":"number line from zero to one."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":829.47,"endTime":835.23,"body":"Wait for it for a variable that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":835.23,"endTime":838.59,"body":"has no quantitative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":835.23,"endTime":838.59,"body":"characteristics. Well, what did"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":838.59,"endTime":842.13,"body":"we do? Let's pretend that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":838.59,"endTime":842.13,"body":"have a one predictor regression,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":842.13,"endTime":844.77,"body":"we know this is a member of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":842.13,"endTime":844.77,"body":"general linear model, we know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":844.77,"endTime":848.79,"body":"this is a two group t test. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":844.77,"endTime":848.79,"body":"have our predictor that's this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":848.79,"endTime":852.48,"body":"nominal variable that we've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":848.79,"endTime":852.48,"body":"assigned zero and one. But now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":852.48,"endTime":855.48,"body":"the intercept of that equation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":852.48,"endTime":855.48,"body":"is the model implied mean of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":855.48,"endTime":859.41,"body":"outcome when all predictors are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":855.48,"endTime":859.41,"body":"zero? Well, that's the mean of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":859.41,"endTime":862.11,"body":"the first group. And the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":859.41,"endTime":862.11,"body":"regression coefficient"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":862.11,"endTime":865.77,"body":"associated with the predictor is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":862.11,"endTime":865.77,"body":"what is the shift in the model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":865.77,"endTime":871.02,"body":"implied mean for a one unit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":865.77,"endTime":871.02,"body":"shift in the predictor, while a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":871.02,"endTime":874.92,"body":"one unit shift is moving from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":871.02,"endTime":874.92,"body":"the control group to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":874.92,"endTime":877.95,"body":"treatment group. So the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":874.92,"endTime":877.95,"body":"intercept is the mean of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":877.95,"endTime":880.74,"body":"control group. And our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":877.95,"endTime":880.74,"body":"regression coefficient is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":880.74,"endTime":883.77,"body":"difference between the control"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":880.74,"endTime":883.77,"body":"and the treatment group. So we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":883.77,"endTime":888.3,"body":"are manipulating the numerical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":883.77,"endTime":888.3,"body":"scaling of our predictor so that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":888.3,"endTime":891.96,"body":"I get these numerical values"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":888.3,"endTime":891.96,"body":"that may have some meaning to me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":891.99,"endTime":895.23,"body":"and it actually feels even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":891.99,"endTime":895.23,"body":"more egregious when someone says"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":895.26,"endTime":898.5,"body":"I have four levels to my nominal"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":895.26,"endTime":898.5,"body":"variable, right? It might be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":898.5,"endTime":902.82,"body":"religious preference. might be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":898.5,"endTime":902.82,"body":"identified ethnicity could be a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":902.82,"endTime":906.42,"body":"variety of different things. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":902.82,"endTime":906.42,"body":"we want to build that in as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":906.42,"endTime":909.96,"body":"predictor, right. And so what we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":906.42,"endTime":909.96,"body":"learned, and this really is this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":909.96,"endTime":913.41,"body":"idea of repurposing things, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":909.96,"endTime":913.41,"body":"we learned as well, if you got"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":913.41,"endTime":916.26,"body":"four different categories in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":913.41,"endTime":916.26,"body":"your nominal variable, the end"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":916.26,"endTime":921.36,"body":"of your noir, then you can code"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":916.26,"endTime":921.36,"body":"that with three, quantitative"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":921.39,"endTime":924.99,"body":"predictors, three predictors,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":921.39,"endTime":924.99,"body":"that could be of the form 01."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":924.99,"endTime":928.2,"body":"For example, let's imagine just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":924.99,"endTime":928.2,"body":"for sake of argument that your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":928.2,"endTime":930.51,"body":"four groups are that you have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":928.2,"endTime":930.51,"body":"control group, and then three"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":930.51,"endTime":933.72,"body":"different treatment groups, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":930.51,"endTime":933.72,"body":"could code that control group as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":933.72,"endTime":937.2,"body":"zero and then have three dummy"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":933.72,"endTime":937.2,"body":"variables that represent the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":937.2,"endTime":940.11,"body":"difference between each of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":937.2,"endTime":940.11,"body":"treatment groups going back to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.11,"endTime":943.71,"body":"the control group. That seems"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.11,"endTime":943.71,"body":"pretty handy. And what if I want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":943.71,"endTime":945.87,"body":"to know about the differences"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":943.71,"endTime":945.87,"body":"among the treatment groups,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":945.87,"endTime":948.99,"body":"though? Me saying, Well, I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":945.87,"endTime":948.99,"body":"sorry, I can't compare the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":948.99,"endTime":951.69,"body":"treatment groups to each other,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":948.99,"endTime":951.69,"body":"because that's not the way this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":951.69,"endTime":955.68,"body":"works, would be an extreme"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":951.69,"endTime":955.68,"body":"example of you completely"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":955.68,"endTime":960.0,"body":"letting the statistical tail wag"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":955.68,"endTime":960.0,"body":"your research question dog here."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.24,"endTime":961.08,"body":"But what do we do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":961.11,"endTime":964.8,"body":"we learn this in grad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":961.11,"endTime":964.8,"body":"stats instead of zero, and one,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":964.8,"endTime":968.79,"body":"maybe we have negative one, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":964.8,"endTime":968.79,"body":"one, because that's going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":968.79,"endTime":973.23,"body":"compare that to some overall"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":968.79,"endTime":973.23,"body":"mean, maybe we have negative one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":973.23,"endTime":977.7,"body":"and positive point five and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":973.23,"endTime":977.7,"body":"positive point five, where we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":977.7,"endTime":982.98,"body":"can compare one group mean to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":977.7,"endTime":982.98,"body":"the mean of two group means you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":982.98,"endTime":986.73,"body":"have a whole host of things that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":982.98,"endTime":986.73,"body":"you can do that you can say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":986.73,"endTime":989.4,"body":"well, I'm almost going to use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":986.73,"endTime":989.4,"body":"the regression model like a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":989.4,"endTime":993.87,"body":"calculator, and I'm going to do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":989.4,"endTime":993.87,"body":"whatever comparison I damn well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":993.87,"endTime":994.56,"body":"please."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":994.62,"endTime":998.46,"body":"And our old friend Cohen"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":994.62,"endTime":998.46,"body":"did a really nice job of talking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":998.46,"endTime":1001.55,"body":"about different coding schemes."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":998.46,"endTime":1001.55,"body":"And these should be things that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1001.55,"endTime":1004.07,"body":"if you're not immediately"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1001.55,"endTime":1004.07,"body":"familiar with them, I hope that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1004.07,"endTime":1007.31,"body":"they at least ring bells."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1004.07,"endTime":1007.31,"body":"There's the contrast, coding"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1007.34,"endTime":1011.21,"body":"effect, coding all different"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1007.34,"endTime":1011.21,"body":"types of coding. And the key is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1011.42,"endTime":1014.21,"body":"that you don't even just lock"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1011.42,"endTime":1014.21,"body":"into those specific types of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1014.21,"endTime":1018.08,"body":"codes. But as Patrick said, You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1014.21,"endTime":1018.08,"body":"do whatever you want. Imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1018.08,"endTime":1020.96,"body":"it's the case in the example"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1018.08,"endTime":1020.96,"body":"that I just gave you that the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1020.96,"endTime":1024.98,"body":"control group was a complete"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1020.96,"endTime":1024.98,"body":"lack of any dosage of something."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1025.13,"endTime":1028.61,"body":"But the three treatment groups"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1025.13,"endTime":1028.61,"body":"were all variations in dosage."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1028.82,"endTime":1033.14,"body":"Well, you could do contrasts"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1028.82,"endTime":1033.14,"body":"that represent trends associated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1033.14,"endTime":1037.04,"body":"with the increase in dosage. As"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1033.14,"endTime":1037.04,"body":"long as you understand that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1037.04,"endTime":1040.4,"body":"can manipulate these weights in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1037.04,"endTime":1040.4,"body":"any way, as long as it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1040.4,"endTime":1044.3,"body":"subscribes to certain rules, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1040.4,"endTime":1044.3,"body":"can ask any question you want."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1044.33,"endTime":1047.6,"body":"One of the things that we sort"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1044.33,"endTime":1047.6,"body":"of take for granted, even in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1047.6,"endTime":1051.05,"body":"quantitative predictor is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1047.6,"endTime":1051.05,"body":"scale that the good Lord has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1051.05,"endTime":1054.47,"body":"given that particular variable,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1051.05,"endTime":1054.47,"body":"that variable comes with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1054.47,"endTime":1057.65,"body":"whatever metric it has that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1054.47,"endTime":1057.65,"body":"variable comes with whatever"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1057.68,"endTime":1061.34,"body":"zero point it has. And you know"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1057.68,"endTime":1061.34,"body":"what, frankly, those things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1061.34,"endTime":1064.49,"body":"don't always make sense to you."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1061.34,"endTime":1064.49,"body":"And one of the ones that I would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1064.49,"endTime":1069.08,"body":"hone in on for this particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1064.49,"endTime":1069.08,"body":"point is, the zero value for a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1069.08,"endTime":1072.44,"body":"number of variables that we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1069.08,"endTime":1072.44,"body":"is a completely meaningless"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1072.47,"endTime":1076.16,"body":"thing. If I have your LSAT"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1072.47,"endTime":1076.16,"body":"score, what does it mean to have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1076.16,"endTime":1080.18,"body":"zero amount of LSAT, but you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1076.16,"endTime":1080.18,"body":"literally cannot earn a zero on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1080.18,"endTime":1083.54,"body":"the SATs score, as long as you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1080.18,"endTime":1083.54,"body":"sign your name trial problem,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1083.54,"endTime":1087.56,"body":"congratulations, you got to 200."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1083.54,"endTime":1087.56,"body":"But when we put that variable as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1087.56,"endTime":1090.56,"body":"it stands into a regression"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1087.56,"endTime":1090.56,"body":"model, the intercept is like a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1090.56,"endTime":1093.2,"body":"throwaway parameter for the most"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1090.56,"endTime":1093.2,"body":"part, right? It's just the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1093.2,"endTime":1096.41,"body":"constant as we get in most of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1093.2,"endTime":1096.41,"body":"the output. But what if we would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1096.41,"endTime":1099.62,"body":"like that to represent something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1096.41,"endTime":1099.62,"body":"meaningful, I sure as heck don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1099.62,"endTime":1102.11,"body":"care about the value of an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1099.62,"endTime":1102.11,"body":"outcome that someone would have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1102.11,"endTime":1105.77,"body":"given a zero LSAT score. The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1102.11,"endTime":1105.77,"body":"thing is, you can center that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1105.77,"endTime":1110.27,"body":"predictor, however you want, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1105.77,"endTime":1110.27,"body":"could make a score of 200 be the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1110.27,"endTime":1114.32,"body":"zero by centering that variable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1110.27,"endTime":1114.32,"body":"around 200. Subtracting 200 from"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1114.32,"endTime":1119.06,"body":"every score, you could make it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1114.32,"endTime":1119.06,"body":"around a mean of 500, which is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1119.09,"endTime":1122.21,"body":"sort of the scaled mean of an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1119.09,"endTime":1122.21,"body":"essay t score before it drifts"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1122.21,"endTime":1125.72,"body":"after a few years and has to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1122.21,"endTime":1125.72,"body":"reined back in. You could pick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1125.75,"endTime":1129.08,"body":"any point that you want. And you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1125.75,"endTime":1129.08,"body":"should pick whatever point you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1129.08,"endTime":1131.87,"body":"want to get the parameter out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1129.08,"endTime":1131.87,"body":"that you want that answers the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1131.87,"endTime":1133.55,"body":"research question that you want."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1131.87,"endTime":1133.55,"body":"And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1133.549,"endTime":1136.669,"body":"when you start seeing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1133.549,"endTime":1136.669,"body":"that I've got this handful of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1136.669,"endTime":1140.209,"body":"laser cannons that I can put on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1136.669,"endTime":1140.209,"body":"anything you want, you start to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1140.209,"endTime":1142.999,"body":"see, oh, wow, I can control"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1140.209,"endTime":1142.999,"body":"these in a lot of different"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1142.999,"endTime":1148.549,"body":"ways. We often do mean centering"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1142.999,"endTime":1148.549,"body":"of a continuous predictor, just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1148.549,"endTime":1151.459,"body":"as Greg is talking about, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1148.549,"endTime":1151.459,"body":"that the intercept represents"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1151.459,"endTime":1154.879,"body":"the mean of the outcome app, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1151.459,"endTime":1154.879,"body":"mean of the predictor. Okay,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1154.879,"endTime":1159.049,"body":"that's a nice mean, centering is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1154.879,"endTime":1159.049,"body":"always nice. But we could mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1159.049,"endTime":1163.519,"body":"center a continuous covariant"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1159.049,"endTime":1163.519,"body":"around the mean of one of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1163.519,"endTime":1167.089,"body":"groups that we're studying Dan"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1163.519,"endTime":1167.089,"body":"and I teach multi level"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1167.089,"endTime":1170.119,"body":"modeling. And we have an example"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1167.089,"endTime":1170.119,"body":"where we're looking at birth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1170.119,"endTime":1172.759,"body":"weight and there are three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1170.119,"endTime":1172.759,"body":"groups of mothers healthy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1172.759,"endTime":1176.119,"body":"controls, there was a treatment"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1172.759,"endTime":1176.119,"body":"that was discontinued in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1176.119,"endTime":1179.419,"body":"treatment that was continued."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1176.119,"endTime":1179.419,"body":"And then we have continuous"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1179.419,"endTime":1182.809,"body":"covariates. What we centered the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1179.419,"endTime":1182.809,"body":"covariates, not around the mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1182.809,"endTime":1187.819,"body":"of everyone, but around the mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1182.809,"endTime":1187.819,"body":"of the healthy controls. So that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1187.819,"endTime":1192.589,"body":"the zero represents what is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1187.819,"endTime":1192.589,"body":"mean for the healthy controls"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1192.589,"endTime":1195.769,"body":"and then we can compare the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1192.589,"endTime":1195.769,"body":"other groups you can do that you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1195.769,"endTime":1201.079,"body":"can move to standardizing a neat"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1195.769,"endTime":1201.079,"body":"thing in the SEM is we can get a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1201.079,"endTime":1205.039,"body":"thing called a partially"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1201.079,"endTime":1205.039,"body":"standardized solution. A usual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1205.039,"endTime":1208.369,"body":"standardized solution is all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1205.039,"endTime":1208.369,"body":"predictors and all outcomes are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1208.369,"endTime":1211.999,"body":"standardized. So while one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1208.369,"endTime":1211.999,"body":"standard deviation unit in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1211.999,"endTime":1215.329,"body":"predictor is associated with a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1211.999,"endTime":1215.329,"body":"gamma standard deviation,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1215.329,"endTime":1218.689,"body":"changing your dependent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1215.329,"endTime":1218.689,"body":"variable, that's fine if you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1218.689,"endTime":1222.739,"body":"have continuous on both sides,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1218.689,"endTime":1222.739,"body":"but what if your predictor is a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1222.739,"endTime":1226.759,"body":"group variable? Well, what is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1222.739,"endTime":1226.759,"body":"the standard deviation change in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1226.759,"endTime":1229.849,"body":"moving from control to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1226.759,"endTime":1229.849,"body":"treatment? Well, the regression"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1229.849,"endTime":1232.849,"body":"model doesn't allow in its"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1229.849,"endTime":1232.849,"body":"native state where you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1232.849,"endTime":1235.519,"body":"standardize the dependent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1232.849,"endTime":1235.519,"body":"variable, but you don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1235.519,"endTime":1239.209,"body":"standardize the predictor, well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1235.519,"endTime":1239.209,"body":"you can do that manually, is you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1239.209,"endTime":1243.379,"body":"can standardize your y before"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1239.209,"endTime":1243.379,"body":"the regression, regress the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1243.379,"endTime":1247.699,"body":"standardized y on your raw"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1243.379,"endTime":1247.699,"body":"binary predictor, and then you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1247.699,"endTime":1250.579,"body":"have your partially standardized"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1247.699,"endTime":1250.579,"body":"solution. I have been in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1250.579,"endTime":1253.429,"body":"meeting where somebody said,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1250.579,"endTime":1253.429,"body":"Well, regression doesn't allow"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1253.429,"endTime":1257.119,"body":"you to do a partially"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1253.429,"endTime":1257.119,"body":"standardized solution, just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1257.119,"endTime":1259.609,"body":"change the scaling, you can do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1257.119,"endTime":1259.609,"body":"anything you want. And you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1259.609,"endTime":1263.239,"body":"should do anything that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1259.609,"endTime":1263.239,"body":"you want, right? Make the method"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1263.269,"endTime":1267.199,"body":"match the question, don't make"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1263.269,"endTime":1267.199,"body":"the question match the method."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1267.559,"endTime":1269.569,"body":"And so everything we've"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1267.559,"endTime":1269.569,"body":"described so far, has been"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1269.569,"endTime":1273.019,"body":"manipulations around a single"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1269.569,"endTime":1273.019,"body":"variable, but we have systems of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1273.019,"endTime":1275.389,"body":"variables, right? We have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1273.019,"endTime":1275.389,"body":"multiple predictors. What are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1275.389,"endTime":1278.779,"body":"some fun things that we can do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1275.389,"endTime":1278.779,"body":"to help loosen up the rules when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1278.779,"endTime":1281.299,"body":"it comes to multiple variables"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1278.779,"endTime":1281.299,"body":"simultaneously?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.359,"endTime":1285.379,"body":"Well, let's say we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.359,"endTime":1285.379,"body":"x 1x, two and x three predicting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.379,"endTime":1288.949,"body":"y. All right, that's a main"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.379,"endTime":1288.949,"body":"effect model. The regression"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1288.949,"endTime":1292.489,"body":"coefficient for x two is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1288.949,"endTime":1292.489,"body":"unique relation between x two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1292.489,"endTime":1296.299,"body":"and y above and beyond the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1292.489,"endTime":1296.299,"body":"effects of x one and x three."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1296.569,"endTime":1300.679,"body":"That's great. If that's your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1296.569,"endTime":1300.679,"body":"question, what if your question"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1300.679,"endTime":1306.109,"body":"is, what is the relation between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1300.679,"endTime":1306.109,"body":"x two and y as a function of x"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1306.109,"endTime":1312.259,"body":"one? Does the magnitude of x two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1306.109,"endTime":1312.259,"body":"to y depend upon where you are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1312.259,"endTime":1316.339,"body":"in x one? That's an interaction?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1312.259,"endTime":1316.339,"body":"How do we manipulate the model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1316.339,"endTime":1320.299,"body":"to get to it, we do the sleight"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1316.339,"endTime":1320.299,"body":"of hand that we've done for 50"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1320.299,"endTime":1326.959,"body":"or 60 years, you multiply x one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1320.299,"endTime":1326.959,"body":"and x two together, outside of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1326.959,"endTime":1331.309,"body":"the regression model, you bring"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1326.959,"endTime":1331.309,"body":"in that product as a new"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1331.309,"endTime":1335.299,"body":"predictor. And that represents"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1331.309,"endTime":1335.299,"body":"the conditional relation that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1335.299,"endTime":1339.139,"body":"going to allow us to model the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1335.299,"endTime":1339.139,"body":"interaction between x one and x"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1339.139,"endTime":1343.549,"body":"two. But that's the next thing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1339.139,"endTime":1343.549,"body":"of the laser cannon. Well, let's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1343.549,"endTime":1347.419,"body":"combine our variables in ways"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1343.549,"endTime":1347.419,"body":"that allow us to do what we want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1347.419,"endTime":1347.659,"body":"to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1347.69,"endTime":1349.76,"body":"and what you just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1347.69,"endTime":1349.76,"body":"described, which, like you said,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1349.76,"endTime":1352.7,"body":"is something we've been doing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1349.76,"endTime":1352.7,"body":"for 50 or 60 years very, very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1352.7,"endTime":1355.55,"body":"clever when we look at it. Now"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1352.7,"endTime":1355.55,"body":"in hindsight, we go Yeah, well,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1355.55,"endTime":1358.25,"body":"it's kind of obvious. But it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1355.55,"endTime":1358.25,"body":"wasn't kind of obvious,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1358.28,"endTime":1361.7,"body":"originally. And now imagine that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1358.28,"endTime":1361.7,"body":"you're sitting in a meeting with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1361.7,"endTime":1364.67,"body":"someone and the person says,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1361.7,"endTime":1364.67,"body":"yes, yes, I really want to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1364.67,"endTime":1368.03,"body":"at this kind of moderation or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1364.67,"endTime":1368.03,"body":"interaction between these two."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1368.42,"endTime":1371.15,"body":"But this product actually is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1368.42,"endTime":1371.15,"body":"very specific type of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1371.15,"endTime":1374.6,"body":"moderation, where the relation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1371.15,"endTime":1374.6,"body":"of one of your predictors with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1374.6,"endTime":1379.49,"body":"your outcome changes linearly as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1374.6,"endTime":1379.49,"body":"a function of the other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1379.52,"endTime":1383.75,"body":"variable. What if, after some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1379.52,"endTime":1383.75,"body":"soul searching, you say, I am"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1383.75,"endTime":1386.81,"body":"interested in moderation, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1383.75,"endTime":1386.81,"body":"you know what, I think that the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1386.81,"endTime":1392.21,"body":"slope of that initial predictor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1386.81,"endTime":1392.21,"body":"is going to get steeper for a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1392.21,"endTime":1395.45,"body":"while as the other variable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1392.21,"endTime":1395.45,"body":"increases. But then I think it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1395.45,"endTime":1397.91,"body":"going to kind of slow down, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1395.45,"endTime":1397.91,"body":"don't think it's just going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1397.91,"endTime":1401.81,"body":"keep ratcheting up, up, up up up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1397.91,"endTime":1401.81,"body":"overall, as a product would say,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1402.26,"endTime":1405.86,"body":"one option is for you to say,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1402.26,"endTime":1405.86,"body":"well, I guess the product term"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1405.86,"endTime":1409.37,"body":"is about as good as I can get."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1405.86,"endTime":1409.37,"body":"So I'll use that for moderation."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1409.7,"endTime":1412.58,"body":"But you know what, I don't just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1409.7,"endTime":1412.58,"body":"want a laser cannon. I want a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1412.58,"endTime":1416.3,"body":"pink laser cannon that shoots"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1412.58,"endTime":1416.3,"body":"out rainbow colored unicorns."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1416.33,"endTime":1419.78,"body":"But what are we going to do? You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1416.33,"endTime":1419.78,"body":"can build in a different type of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1419.78,"endTime":1423.44,"body":"moderation. I don't have to just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1419.78,"endTime":1423.44,"body":"do a product of x two with x"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1423.44,"endTime":1427.55,"body":"one, I could do a product of x"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1423.44,"endTime":1427.55,"body":"two squared with x one or the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1427.55,"endTime":1432.44,"body":"log of x two with x one. What is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1427.55,"endTime":1432.44,"body":"it about x two that you think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1432.47,"endTime":1435.56,"body":"governs the particular nature of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1432.47,"endTime":1435.56,"body":"the moderation that you have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1435.59,"endTime":1438.56,"body":"operating? That is what you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1435.59,"endTime":1438.56,"body":"should be building in?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1438.589,"endTime":1441.739,"body":"That's a testable"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1438.589,"endTime":1441.739,"body":"hypothesis that there's some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1441.739,"endTime":1446.059,"body":"slowing of those increases?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1441.739,"endTime":1446.059,"body":"we'll square it, bring it in as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1446.059,"endTime":1449.569,"body":"a squared variable. You've got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1446.059,"endTime":1449.569,"body":"your pink laser cannon, doo doo"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1449.569,"endTime":1453.019,"body":"doo doo doo doo, doo doo doo"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1449.569,"endTime":1453.019,"body":"doo. Nope. Really, I'm sorry,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1453.019,"endTime":1458.539,"body":"you express surprise, really?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1453.019,"endTime":1458.539,"body":"Okay, so Cluster One, we mess"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1458.539,"endTime":1462.739,"body":"around with the numerical values"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1458.539,"endTime":1462.739,"body":"cluster two, we combine"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.769,"endTime":1466.159,"body":"variables in a way that are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.769,"endTime":1466.159,"body":"meaningful to us. We take"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1466.159,"endTime":1469.279,"body":"products, we take powers, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1466.159,"endTime":1469.279,"body":"take products of powers, we do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1469.279,"endTime":1472.669,"body":"whatever we want. So we're back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1469.279,"endTime":1472.669,"body":"out on the back deck last night."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1473.299,"endTime":1476.599,"body":"Cluster three, however, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1473.299,"endTime":1476.599,"body":"scaled your predictors and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1476.599,"endTime":1479.809,"body":"however you combined your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1476.599,"endTime":1479.809,"body":"predictors in a way that's of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1479.809,"endTime":1483.169,"body":"use to you, you estimate your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1479.809,"endTime":1483.169,"body":"model, and now you have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1483.169,"endTime":1486.439,"body":"parameter estimates. We have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1483.169,"endTime":1486.439,"body":"regression coefficients, we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1486.439,"endTime":1491.089,"body":"covariances, we have residual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1486.439,"endTime":1491.089,"body":"variances. Now let's talk about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1491.089,"endTime":1497.119,"body":"combining those in a way that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1491.089,"endTime":1497.119,"body":"of use to us. Not the variables"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1497.149,"endTime":1500.659,"body":"right there. over in the corner."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1497.149,"endTime":1500.659,"body":"They got a Coors Light Cross"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1500.659,"endTime":1505.099,"body":"Blue Cross like the world's most"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1500.659,"endTime":1505.099,"body":"refreshing beer, their work is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1505.099,"endTime":1508.879,"body":"done. And the model has given"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1505.099,"endTime":1508.879,"body":"you parameter estimates and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1508.879,"endTime":1513.049,"body":"standard errors. Talk to me"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1508.879,"endTime":1513.049,"body":"about fun things we can do with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1513.079,"endTime":1513.919,"body":"those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1514.669,"endTime":1518.299,"body":"parameter estimates are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1514.669,"endTime":1518.299,"body":"just such a playground. I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1518.299,"endTime":1521.539,"body":"one of the problems with the way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1518.299,"endTime":1521.539,"body":"we usually look at the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1521.539,"endTime":1525.259,"body":"instructions that come with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1521.539,"endTime":1525.259,"body":"these kinds of models is that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1525.259,"endTime":1530.869,"body":"try to answer complex questions,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1525.259,"endTime":1530.869,"body":"one parameter at a time. And a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1530.869,"endTime":1533.719,"body":"very obvious example of this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1530.869,"endTime":1533.719,"body":"that people should be familiar"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1533.719,"endTime":1539.119,"body":"with is mediation. Right? So we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1533.719,"endTime":1539.119,"body":"have some hypothesis that X has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1539.119,"endTime":1543.469,"body":"an influence on Y and Y has an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1539.119,"endTime":1543.469,"body":"influence on Z. And we're really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1543.469,"endTime":1547.489,"body":"interested in the mediating"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1543.469,"endTime":1547.489,"body":"value of y to the point of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1547.489,"endTime":1549.859,"body":"wanting to understand the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1547.489,"endTime":1549.859,"body":"magnitude of the indirect effect"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1549.859,"endTime":1555.139,"body":"that X has on z through y. Well"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1549.859,"endTime":1555.139,"body":"away that requires us only to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1555.139,"endTime":1557.929,"body":"use the instructions that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1555.139,"endTime":1557.929,"body":"would be given is to look at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1557.929,"endTime":1561.499,"body":"well, what's the link between x"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1557.929,"endTime":1561.499,"body":"and y? Okay, that's a part of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1561.499,"endTime":1564.829,"body":"the story. What's the link"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1561.499,"endTime":1564.829,"body":"between Y and Z? Okay, that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1564.829,"endTime":1567.289,"body":"part of the story. But the whole"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1564.829,"endTime":1567.289,"body":"story has to do with a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1567.289,"endTime":1570.739,"body":"combination of information that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1567.289,"endTime":1570.739,"body":"you get of those two parameters"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1570.739,"endTime":1574.009,"body":"together, quite literally, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1570.739,"endTime":1574.009,"body":"product of those parameters is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1574.009,"endTime":1578.119,"body":"the indirect effect. So one that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1574.009,"endTime":1578.119,"body":"we're all familiar with, I hope,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1578.119,"endTime":1580.789,"body":"or at least in concept is that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1578.119,"endTime":1580.789,"body":"the information of those two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1580.789,"endTime":1583.729,"body":"parameters can be brought"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1580.789,"endTime":1583.729,"body":"together? multiplicatively, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1583.729,"endTime":1586.729,"body":"go off to the side and we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1583.729,"endTime":1586.729,"body":"multiply those parameters,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1586.879,"endTime":1589.309,"body":"because that is what gets at our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1586.879,"endTime":1589.309,"body":"question."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1589.399,"endTime":1593.329,"body":"That one is like you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1589.399,"endTime":1593.329,"body":"have taken apart the Millennium"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1593.329,"endTime":1597.739,"body":"Falcon, and you have all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1593.329,"endTime":1597.739,"body":"stuff that went into the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1597.739,"endTime":1601.159,"body":"Millennium Falcon, which is one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1597.739,"endTime":1601.159,"body":"of the coolest things you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1601.159,"endTime":1604.909,"body":"build in terms of stuff. Those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1601.159,"endTime":1604.909,"body":"are your parameter estimates."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1604.999,"endTime":1609.709,"body":"And now we're talking about I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1604.999,"endTime":1609.709,"body":"wonder how I can combine these,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1609.979,"endTime":1613.549,"body":"remember, not variables, not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1609.979,"endTime":1613.549,"body":"numerical values, not products,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1613.699,"endTime":1617.299,"body":"we have a gamma hat sub one and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1613.699,"endTime":1617.299,"body":"a gamma hat sub two and a gamma"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1617.299,"endTime":1622.849,"body":"hat sub three, what can I do to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1617.299,"endTime":1622.849,"body":"make new parameters? So a couple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1622.849,"endTime":1626.119,"body":"episodes ago, we talked about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1622.849,"endTime":1626.119,"body":"maximum likelihood estimation."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1626.119,"endTime":1628.969,"body":"And one thing one of us said, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1626.119,"endTime":1628.969,"body":"don't remember who because I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1628.969,"endTime":1633.289,"body":"don't listen, when you talk, is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1628.969,"endTime":1633.289,"body":"we have all of these beneficial"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1633.289,"endTime":1636.889,"body":"properties of maximum likelihood"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1633.289,"endTime":1636.889,"body":"estimates when we'd need"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1636.889,"endTime":1640.639,"body":"assumptions, right. They're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1636.889,"endTime":1640.639,"body":"unbiased, consistent, efficient."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1640.819,"endTime":1643.759,"body":"And here's a really important"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1640.819,"endTime":1643.759,"body":"one for our conversation. Here"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1643.759,"endTime":1647.449,"body":"they are asymptotically normally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1643.759,"endTime":1647.449,"body":"distributed. So these are all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1647.449,"endTime":1650.869,"body":"these wonderful characteristics"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1647.449,"endTime":1650.869,"body":"of maximum likelihood estimates."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1651.139,"endTime":1655.819,"body":"But a throwaway line is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1651.139,"endTime":1655.819,"body":"combinations of maximum"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1655.819,"endTime":1660.139,"body":"likelihood estimates are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1655.819,"endTime":1660.139,"body":"themselves maximum likelihood"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1660.139,"endTime":1664.519,"body":"estimates. So that snapping the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1660.139,"endTime":1664.519,"body":"laser cannon on to Annie's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1664.519,"endTime":1670.219,"body":"flower shop, now itself is a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1664.519,"endTime":1670.219,"body":"maximum likelihood estimate. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1670.249,"endTime":1674.929,"body":"under assumptions has all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1670.249,"endTime":1674.929,"body":"goodies that go with ml. So you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1674.929,"endTime":1678.769,"body":"take your gamma hat, one of x to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1674.929,"endTime":1678.769,"body":"y, you take your gamma hat to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1678.769,"endTime":1683.089,"body":"from Y to Z, and you multiply"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1678.769,"endTime":1683.089,"body":"those, it's sometimes called a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1683.089,"endTime":1688.459,"body":"compound parameter for obvious"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1683.089,"endTime":1688.459,"body":"reasons. And that now becomes a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.459,"endTime":1693.469,"body":"new parameter in the model that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.459,"endTime":1693.469,"body":"we didn't have before. Like,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1693.469,"endTime":1697.099,"body":"that's what's so cool about this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1693.469,"endTime":1697.099,"body":"is we literally have obtained"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1697.099,"endTime":1701.149,"body":"something from our model results"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1697.099,"endTime":1701.149,"body":"that we did not have as part of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1701.149,"endTime":1705.829,"body":"the native estimation of that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1701.149,"endTime":1705.829,"body":"model. When you see that it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1705.829,"endTime":1714.469,"body":"the I see dead people. I see"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1705.829,"endTime":1714.469,"body":"dead people. When you lean back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1714.469,"endTime":1718.939,"body":"and say, Holy crap, you mean I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1714.469,"endTime":1718.939,"body":"can combine these estimates, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1718.939,"endTime":1723.109,"body":"can add them, I can subtract"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1718.939,"endTime":1723.109,"body":"them, I can multiply them, I can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1723.109,"endTime":1728.749,"body":"make ratios. Oh my gosh, it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1723.109,"endTime":1728.749,"body":"opens up this huge array of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1728.749,"endTime":1732.799,"body":"kinds of hypotheses that we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1728.749,"endTime":1732.799,"body":"evaluate. Is the difference"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1732.799,"endTime":1737.059,"body":"between two parameters zero,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1732.799,"endTime":1737.059,"body":"right? A super simple question,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1737.389,"endTime":1742.279,"body":"we can ask is the value of one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1737.389,"endTime":1742.279,"body":"parameter, the same as the mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1742.339,"endTime":1747.889,"body":"of two other parameters? A lot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1742.339,"endTime":1747.889,"body":"of us have tested interactions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1747.889,"endTime":1752.239,"body":"and then done simple intercepts"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1747.889,"endTime":1752.239,"body":"and simple slopes. What is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1752.239,"endTime":1758.539,"body":"regression of y on x at high,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1752.239,"endTime":1758.539,"body":"medium and low values of z?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1758.719,"endTime":1761.719,"body":"Right? That's a David rugosa."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1758.719,"endTime":1761.719,"body":"Pick a point. Everybody say that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1761.719,"endTime":1764.809,"body":"it's a fun word, pick a boy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1761.719,"endTime":1764.809,"body":"thereupon, pick a boy. Here is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1764.809,"endTime":1769.009,"body":"the regression of y on x, a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1764.809,"endTime":1769.009,"body":"standard deviation above z at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1769.009,"endTime":1773.209,"body":"the mean of Z and a standard"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1769.009,"endTime":1773.209,"body":"deviation below z. Well, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1773.209,"endTime":1777.529,"body":"do we get those? Well, we take"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1773.209,"endTime":1777.529,"body":"the regression coefficients for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1777.529,"endTime":1780.739,"body":"the intercept for the main"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1777.529,"endTime":1780.739,"body":"effect of x for the main effect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.739,"endTime":1785.119,"body":"of z, and for the interaction"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.739,"endTime":1785.119,"body":"between x and z, and we create"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1785.149,"endTime":1789.919,"body":"new compound parameters to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1785.149,"endTime":1789.919,"body":"those probing of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1789.919,"endTime":1791.869,"body":"interactions. Yeah, it's all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1789.919,"endTime":1791.869,"body":"right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1791.87,"endTime":1794.96,"body":"there in front of you, for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1791.87,"endTime":1794.96,"body":"you to be creative with and put"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1794.96,"endTime":1797.66,"body":"together in different ways that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1794.96,"endTime":1797.66,"body":"map onto the research question"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1797.66,"endTime":1799.82,"body":"that you have. It's mostly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1799.819,"endTime":1803.839,"body":"there are in front of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1799.819,"endTime":1803.839,"body":"you. We got a point estimate you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1803.839,"endTime":1809.119,"body":"and I even using our limited"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1803.839,"endTime":1809.119,"body":"quantitative abilities can often"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1809.119,"endTime":1813.199,"body":"multiply two numbers. On a good"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1809.119,"endTime":1813.199,"body":"day, we can add two or three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1813.199,"endTime":1817.699,"body":"numbers at once. The point"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1813.199,"endTime":1817.699,"body":"estimates are right there and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1817.699,"endTime":1823.099,"body":"easy to get. What about the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1817.699,"endTime":1823.099,"body":"standard errors? So we have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1823.099,"endTime":1826.969,"body":"regression of y on x at high"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1823.099,"endTime":1826.969,"body":"level of z at the medium level"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1826.969,"endTime":1831.859,"body":"of z and low Z. But what we want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1826.969,"endTime":1831.859,"body":"to know is is the regression of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1831.859,"endTime":1837.199,"body":"y on x a standard deviation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1831.859,"endTime":1837.199,"body":"above z significantly different"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1837.199,"endTime":1843.109,"body":"from zero or not? And in enters"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1837.199,"endTime":1843.109,"body":"one of my very favorite little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1843.109,"endTime":1846.439,"body":"statistical tricks, and that is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1843.109,"endTime":1846.439,"body":"delta method"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1848.19,"endTime":1849.27,"body":"ooooh....tell us more."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1849.36,"endTime":1851.85,"body":"Okay, we agreed that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1849.36,"endTime":1851.85,"body":"you would not talk like that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1851.85,"endTime":1854.07,"body":"anymore. And by we, I mean,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1855.27,"endTime":1856.08,"body":"say delta."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1857.599,"endTime":1861.559,"body":"What delta method is,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1857.599,"endTime":1861.559,"body":"is amazingly cool. Why is it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1861.559,"endTime":1863.809,"body":"amazingly cool? We're not going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1861.559,"endTime":1863.809,"body":"to talk about delta method in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1863.809,"endTime":1867.289,"body":"details. But what it is, is it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1863.809,"endTime":1867.289,"body":"an analytic method for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1867.319,"endTime":1872.389,"body":"estimating the variance of a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1867.319,"endTime":1872.389,"body":"combination of random variants"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1872.419,"endTime":1875.599,"body":"themselves are normally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1872.419,"endTime":1875.599,"body":"distributed. Yes. Alright. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1875.599,"endTime":1878.569,"body":"what does that mean? Well, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1875.599,"endTime":1878.569,"body":"can have gamma one, and we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1878.569,"endTime":1881.539,"body":"have gamma hat two, we have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1878.569,"endTime":1881.539,"body":"point estimate for that we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1881.539,"endTime":1884.659,"body":"a standard error for that. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1881.539,"endTime":1884.659,"body":"we actually have a covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1884.689,"endTime":1888.079,"body":"between those parameter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1884.689,"endTime":1888.079,"body":"estimates. It's an off diagonal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.079,"endTime":1892.189,"body":"element and an asymptotic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.079,"endTime":1892.189,"body":"covariance weight matrix. Long,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1892.189,"endTime":1897.019,"body":"long, lat long. But if we add"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1892.189,"endTime":1897.019,"body":"those two parameters together,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1897.019,"endTime":1901.849,"body":"we can use delta method to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1897.019,"endTime":1901.849,"body":"what is the variance of the sum"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1901.879,"endTime":1906.079,"body":"of two normally distributed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1901.879,"endTime":1906.079,"body":"random variants? Well, we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1906.079,"endTime":1910.999,"body":"this differentiable function"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1906.079,"endTime":1910.999,"body":"with an infinite number of sums,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1911.029,"endTime":1915.709,"body":"which we call a Taylor series,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1911.029,"endTime":1915.709,"body":"the Taylor series, in principle"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1915.709,"endTime":1919.099,"body":"can have an infinite number of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1915.709,"endTime":1919.099,"body":"songs infinite, it's a lot and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1919.099,"endTime":1922.699,"body":"want to go for a run. And so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1919.099,"endTime":1922.699,"body":"usually, we just take the first"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1922.699,"endTime":1926.689,"body":"or the second Taylor series"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1922.699,"endTime":1926.689,"body":"approximation. And this gives"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1926.689,"endTime":1931.459,"body":"you a standard error, what we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1926.689,"endTime":1931.459,"body":"often do in practice, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1931.459,"endTime":1935.929,"body":"estimate our model, get our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1931.459,"endTime":1935.929,"body":"results, compute these compound"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1935.929,"endTime":1939.649,"body":"parameters in the computer"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1935.929,"endTime":1939.649,"body":"program will calculate the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.649,"endTime":1943.879,"body":"standard errors for those using"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.649,"endTime":1943.879,"body":"the delta method. Now we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1943.879,"endTime":1947.059,"body":"bootstrap and we can do like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1943.879,"endTime":1947.059,"body":"their whole conversations about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1947.059,"endTime":1950.869,"body":"this, I think that's a really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1947.059,"endTime":1950.869,"body":"neat thing is not only can we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1950.869,"endTime":1955.279,"body":"combine these parameters in darn"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1950.869,"endTime":1955.279,"body":"near any way we want, but then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1955.279,"endTime":1958.459,"body":"we can get a standard error, a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1955.279,"endTime":1958.459,"body":"critical ratio and a p value. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1958.459,"endTime":1958.729,"body":"do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1958.73,"endTime":1962.06,"body":"this all the time. One"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1958.73,"endTime":1962.06,"body":"thing worth mentioning is that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1962.06,"endTime":1964.43,"body":"not all combinations of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1962.06,"endTime":1964.43,"body":"parameters are going to have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1964.43,"endTime":1968.09,"body":"these Taylor series expansions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1964.43,"endTime":1968.09,"body":"that go on for as far as the eye"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1968.09,"endTime":1971.12,"body":"can see, because some ways that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1968.09,"endTime":1971.12,"body":"we combine parameters are fairly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1971.12,"endTime":1975.11,"body":"simple. But some ways that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1971.12,"endTime":1975.11,"body":"combine parameters are heinous."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1975.14,"endTime":1978.71,"body":"And if we kept taking derivative"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1975.14,"endTime":1978.71,"body":"second, third, we would just get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1978.71,"endTime":1982.61,"body":"these infinite series out. I do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1978.71,"endTime":1982.61,"body":"a lot of stuff with reliability"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1982.61,"endTime":1985.46,"body":"coefficients and different types"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1982.61,"endTime":1985.46,"body":"of reliability coefficients. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1985.46,"endTime":1989.15,"body":"if you take a factor model, for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1985.46,"endTime":1989.15,"body":"example, factor model has a lot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1989.15,"endTime":1992.24,"body":"of different moving parts to it,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1989.15,"endTime":1992.24,"body":"it has a variance of the factor,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1992.24,"endTime":1994.64,"body":"we might set that to one, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1992.24,"endTime":1994.64,"body":"might estimate it their"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1994.64,"endTime":1998.18,"body":"loadings, their air variances,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1994.64,"endTime":1998.18,"body":"well, how does all that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1998.18,"endTime":2001.21,"body":"information combined to tell you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1998.18,"endTime":2001.21,"body":"something about reliability,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2001.21,"endTime":2004.0,"body":"whether it's reliability of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2001.21,"endTime":2004.0,"body":"composite of those indicator"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2004.0,"endTime":2007.84,"body":"variables, or some estimate of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2004.0,"endTime":2007.84,"body":"actually how stable the factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2007.84,"endTime":2011.29,"body":"is itself from sample to sample?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2007.84,"endTime":2011.29,"body":"Well, that information is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2011.29,"endTime":2014.35,"body":"combination of things like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2011.29,"endTime":2014.35,"body":"loadings or factor variances or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2014.35,"endTime":2018.52,"body":"air variances. And it's not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2014.35,"endTime":2018.52,"body":"exactly a pretty combination, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2018.52,"endTime":2022.99,"body":"can take any modeling package"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2018.52,"endTime":2022.99,"body":"worth its salt, literally define"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2022.99,"endTime":2024.97,"body":"that parameter that I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2022.99,"endTime":2024.97,"body":"interested in, what's the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2024.97,"endTime":2028.36,"body":"parameter, it's the reliability,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2024.97,"endTime":2028.36,"body":"I write out what the function is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2028.36,"endTime":2031.81,"body":"as a function of these other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2028.36,"endTime":2031.81,"body":"parameters. And I get out not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2031.81,"endTime":2034.63,"body":"just a point estimate, I also"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2031.81,"endTime":2034.63,"body":"get out a standard error,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2034.75,"endTime":2036.91,"body":"whether I get that standard"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2034.75,"endTime":2036.91,"body":"error by a delta method"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2036.91,"endTime":2040.69,"body":"approximation, or I bootstrap"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2036.91,"endTime":2040.69,"body":"it. The point is that I'm not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2040.69,"endTime":2043.57,"body":"stuck with saying, well, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2040.69,"endTime":2043.57,"body":"reliability is kind of going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2043.57,"endTime":2046.18,"body":"be related to this loading. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2043.57,"endTime":2046.18,"body":"this loading, the loadings are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2046.18,"endTime":2048.73,"body":"pretty good. So the reliability"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2046.18,"endTime":2048.73,"body":"would be pretty good. No, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2048.73,"endTime":2051.49,"body":"compute the parameter I want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2048.73,"endTime":2051.49,"body":"point estimate interval"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2051.49,"endTime":2055.21,"body":"estimate. And that is all right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2051.49,"endTime":2055.21,"body":"there at my fingertips, you have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2055.21,"endTime":2058.18,"body":"shared some code with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2055.21,"endTime":2058.18,"body":"me that I think it's almost"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2058.18,"endTime":2064.0,"body":"magic where you do a CFA and in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2058.18,"endTime":2064.0,"body":"a couple of lines of code, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2064.0,"endTime":2069.16,"body":"compute not only what omega is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2064.0,"endTime":2069.16,"body":"based upon the parameters in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2069.16,"endTime":2071.92,"body":"model, but you get a standard"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2069.16,"endTime":2071.92,"body":"error and a confidence interval"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2071.92,"endTime":2076.6,"body":"for it. You can't say, oh, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2071.92,"endTime":2076.6,"body":"can't report omega because it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2076.6,"endTime":2080.86,"body":"not part of the output of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2076.6,"endTime":2080.86,"body":"program X. Yeah, well, drawing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2080.86,"endTime":2086.44,"body":"on my clinical training, tough"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2080.86,"endTime":2086.44,"body":"crap, put in two lines of code"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2086.47,"endTime":2089.44,"body":"and compute it. And we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2086.47,"endTime":2089.44,"body":"talking about SEM and this just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2089.44,"endTime":2092.11,"body":"generalizes across almost"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2089.44,"endTime":2092.11,"body":"anything. I mean, you did all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2092.11,"endTime":2094.54,"body":"these things in logistic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2092.11,"endTime":2094.54,"body":"regression. You can do it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2094.54,"endTime":2099.13,"body":"totally across almost anything,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2094.54,"endTime":2099.13,"body":"but you can't say any more."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2099.16,"endTime":2102.46,"body":"Well, it's not All right in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2099.16,"endTime":2102.46,"body":"output, right, I didn't report"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2102.46,"endTime":2106.33,"body":"it because m plus doesn't have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2102.46,"endTime":2106.33,"body":"it in the output. Well, then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2106.33,"endTime":2107.53,"body":"freakin put it in,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2107.56,"endTime":2110.5,"body":"yep, reach across the pile"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2107.56,"endTime":2110.5,"body":"of Legos, pull out some other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2110.5,"endTime":2113.47,"body":"things, snap them together in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2110.5,"endTime":2113.47,"body":"the way that you need it. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2113.47,"endTime":2115.9,"body":"all we're talking about right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2113.47,"endTime":2115.9,"body":"now is just within a single"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2115.9,"endTime":2119.08,"body":"group. But you can do this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2115.9,"endTime":2119.08,"body":"across multiple groups. I just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2119.08,"endTime":2122.08,"body":"described a way to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2119.08,"endTime":2122.08,"body":"reliability. Well, what if I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2122.08,"endTime":2124.9,"body":"getting reliability within one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2122.08,"endTime":2124.9,"body":"group, and I want to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2124.9,"endTime":2128.02,"body":"reliability within another"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2124.9,"endTime":2128.02,"body":"group? And now I want to know if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2128.02,"endTime":2130.93,"body":"there's a significant difference"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2128.02,"endTime":2130.93,"body":"in the reliability across these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2130.93,"endTime":2134.17,"body":"groups? Oh, no. What do I do?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2130.93,"endTime":2134.17,"body":"You code the reliability of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2134.17,"endTime":2137.26,"body":"group one, you code the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2134.17,"endTime":2137.26,"body":"reliability of group two, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2137.26,"endTime":2140.65,"body":"code the difference between"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2137.26,"endTime":2140.65,"body":"these two reliabilities. Oh, my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2140.65,"endTime":2143.14,"body":"gosh, I get out the point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2140.65,"endTime":2143.14,"body":"estimate for the difference in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2143.14,"endTime":2146.05,"body":"reliability is for the standard"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2143.14,"endTime":2146.05,"body":"error of the difference point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2146.05,"endTime":2149.11,"body":"estimate interval estimate, do I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2146.05,"endTime":2149.11,"body":"want to bootstrap it gray"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2149.11,"endTime":2152.68,"body":"bootstrap it, all of this is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2149.11,"endTime":2152.68,"body":"gettable, you just have to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2152.68,"endTime":2156.4,"body":"able to literally think outside"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2152.68,"endTime":2156.4,"body":"your box of pieces, and build it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2156.4,"endTime":2157.21,"body":"the way you need it."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2157.27,"endTime":2159.64,"body":"And a lot of this stuff"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2157.27,"endTime":2159.64,"body":"is all online, you've written"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2159.64,"endTime":2163.66,"body":"papers about this that has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2159.64,"endTime":2163.66,"body":"example code in it. This is not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2163.66,"endTime":2167.14,"body":"a silly, you know, where you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2163.66,"endTime":2167.14,"body":"could write a Python script"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2167.14,"endTime":2172.72,"body":"nested within R, that pulls in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2167.14,"endTime":2172.72,"body":"open MX that you can then take"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2172.72,"endTime":2175.96,"body":"two, you know, it's like at that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2172.72,"endTime":2175.96,"body":"point, I don't care about the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2175.96,"endTime":2178.66,"body":"question anymore. It's like,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2175.96,"endTime":2178.66,"body":"Yeah, forget it, it was not that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2178.66,"endTime":2183.34,"body":"important. This is you define a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2178.66,"endTime":2183.34,"body":"new parameter in the model, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2183.37,"endTime":2186.28,"body":"write the equation for what that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2183.37,"endTime":2186.28,"body":"is, that is very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2186.28,"endTime":2189.25,"body":"straightforward. And then you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2186.28,"endTime":2189.25,"body":"get the standard error for that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2189.34,"endTime":2193.18,"body":"this stuff is within reach of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2189.34,"endTime":2193.18,"body":"everybody who's doing this kind"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2193.18,"endTime":2193.78,"body":"of work."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.81,"endTime":2196.78,"body":"One of the questions I get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.81,"endTime":2196.78,"body":"a lot when someone is in my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2196.78,"endTime":2200.05,"body":"office, and they say, Well, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2196.78,"endTime":2200.05,"body":"kind of need to do this. And my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2200.05,"endTime":2203.32,"body":"reaction is, oh, we just need to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2200.05,"endTime":2203.32,"body":"build that. And then we go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2203.32,"endTime":2205.66,"body":"through and figure out how to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2203.32,"endTime":2205.66,"body":"build whatever we want. One of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.66,"endTime":2208.75,"body":"the questions I get frequently"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.66,"endTime":2208.75,"body":"is, is there a citation for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2208.75,"endTime":2211.75,"body":"that? Or can you give me a paper"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2208.75,"endTime":2211.75,"body":"where someone has done that? My"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2211.75,"endTime":2215.44,"body":"answer is usually I have no idea"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2211.75,"endTime":2215.44,"body":"i because I no longer think that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2215.44,"endTime":2218.71,"body":"way. Right? I no longer think in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2215.44,"endTime":2218.71,"body":"terms of this set of things that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2218.71,"endTime":2221.53,"body":"are up on the shelf, I think in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2218.71,"endTime":2221.53,"body":"terms of just building whatever"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2221.53,"endTime":2224.68,"body":"we want. I don't know if you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2221.53,"endTime":2224.68,"body":"handle that in a particular way."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2224.68,"endTime":2227.44,"body":"But I don't have an answer"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2224.68,"endTime":2227.44,"body":"anymore for Is there a paper for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2227.44,"endTime":2230.08,"body":"that because to me, you don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2227.44,"endTime":2230.08,"body":"need a paper for that to be able"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2230.08,"endTime":2231.31,"body":"to build whatever you want,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2231.34,"endTime":2235.93,"body":"which was a line that I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2231.34,"endTime":2235.93,"body":"wrote in my review of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2235.93,"endTime":2241.09,"body":"psychometric article 20 years"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2235.93,"endTime":2241.09,"body":"ago, which is, I admittedly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2241.09,"endTime":2245.59,"body":"cannot identify a citation that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2241.09,"endTime":2245.59,"body":"has done this work. But then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2245.59,"endTime":2250.63,"body":"again, I never felt the need for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2245.59,"endTime":2250.63,"body":"one. Right as we don't have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2250.63,"endTime":2254.92,"body":"justify some of this stuff,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2250.63,"endTime":2254.92,"body":"because it just is here. Here's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2254.92,"endTime":2259.48,"body":"omega, this is the estimate,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2254.92,"endTime":2259.48,"body":"here is my model, and I am going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2259.48,"endTime":2263.35,"body":"to calculate it. Then again,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2259.48,"endTime":2263.35,"body":"this is not a how to discussion."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2263.56,"endTime":2267.67,"body":"This is think about all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2263.56,"endTime":2267.67,"body":"parts of the Legos in front of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2267.67,"endTime":2271.96,"body":"you, and how would you combine"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2267.67,"endTime":2271.96,"body":"them? It's so empowering. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2271.96,"endTime":2275.47,"body":"there's something you want, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2271.96,"endTime":2275.47,"body":"you don't have it, then get a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2275.47,"endTime":2279.7,"body":"Coors Light turn on Green Day go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2275.47,"endTime":2279.7,"body":"out in the garage and freakin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2279.7,"endTime":2280.27,"body":"building."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2281.08,"endTime":2286.87,"body":"Exactly, do you have that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2281.08,"endTime":2286.87,"body":"time to listen to me whine?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2287.23,"endTime":2290.32,"body":"Somehow, in all of this, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2287.23,"endTime":2290.32,"body":"defined clusters of things,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2290.38,"endTime":2293.92,"body":"Cluster One was single"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2290.38,"endTime":2293.92,"body":"variables, cluster two was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2293.92,"endTime":2297.97,"body":"multiple variables, cluster"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2293.92,"endTime":2297.97,"body":"three is systems of parameters"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2297.97,"endTime":2300.34,"body":"that we can push and pull. Am I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2297.97,"endTime":2300.34,"body":"getting that right? So far?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2300.37,"endTime":2303.43,"body":"We're listening to me?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2300.37,"endTime":2303.43,"body":"Oh, it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2303.43,"endTime":2306.31,"body":"so sweet. All right. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2303.43,"endTime":2306.31,"body":"then there has to be a cluster"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2306.31,"endTime":2312.1,"body":"for following all of that. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2306.31,"endTime":2312.1,"body":"to me, if I may cluster for is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2312.1,"endTime":2317.89,"body":"just from the ground up re"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2312.1,"endTime":2317.89,"body":"parameterizing particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2317.89,"endTime":2321.22,"body":"modeling framework. So first of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2317.89,"endTime":2321.22,"body":"all, you and I work in this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2321.22,"endTime":2325.15,"body":"structural equation modeling"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2321.22,"endTime":2325.15,"body":"world a lot. And I will say that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2325.15,"endTime":2328.3,"body":"structural equation modeling"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2325.15,"endTime":2328.3,"body":"really is all about re"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2328.3,"endTime":2332.53,"body":"parameterizing. Taking this one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2328.3,"endTime":2332.53,"body":"thing and putting patterns of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2332.53,"endTime":2334.93,"body":"constraints on it to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2332.53,"endTime":2334.93,"body":"something else out. So if you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2334.93,"endTime":2338.38,"body":"think about a collection of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2334.93,"endTime":2338.38,"body":"variables, they have variances,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2338.38,"endTime":2341.71,"body":"covariances, they also have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2338.38,"endTime":2341.71,"body":"means if you look at those and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2341.71,"endTime":2346.27,"body":"you say where are the factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2341.71,"endTime":2346.27,"body":"loadings in that, or where is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2346.27,"endTime":2350.08,"body":"the mediation in that? And the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2346.27,"endTime":2350.08,"body":"answer is, it's nowhere, right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2350.08,"endTime":2354.55,"body":"It's not anywhere until you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2350.08,"endTime":2354.55,"body":"impose a pattern of constraints"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2354.58,"endTime":2358.36,"body":"on the variances covariances and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2354.58,"endTime":2358.36,"body":"even means to tease out those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2358.36,"endTime":2361.36,"body":"things that you want. So all of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2358.36,"endTime":2361.36,"body":"the things that you and I do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2361.36,"endTime":2364.51,"body":"really are about re"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2361.36,"endTime":2364.51,"body":"parameterizing it's just that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2364.51,"endTime":2367.78,"body":"have so abstracted the way we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2364.51,"endTime":2367.78,"body":"think about things. We draw a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2367.78,"endTime":2370.78,"body":"path model and that means a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2367.78,"endTime":2370.78,"body":"system of constraints, we draw a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2370.78,"endTime":2374.29,"body":"factor model and that means a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2370.78,"endTime":2374.29,"body":"system of constraints. But each"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2374.29,"endTime":2378.13,"body":"one of those really is this I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2374.29,"endTime":2378.13,"body":"think fairly brilliant re"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2378.13,"endTime":2382.27,"body":"parameterization of what is at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2378.13,"endTime":2382.27,"body":"its fundamental core, just a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2382.27,"endTime":2386.05,"body":"bunch of variances and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2382.27,"endTime":2386.05,"body":"covariances and means all of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2386.05,"endTime":2390.85,"body":"that said I still think there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2386.05,"endTime":2390.85,"body":"should be an award for the most"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2390.85,"endTime":2396.01,"body":"brilliant re parameterization"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2390.85,"endTime":2396.01,"body":"reconfiguring, taking into the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2396.01,"endTime":2400.21,"body":"garage, pulling the door down,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2396.01,"endTime":2400.21,"body":"re sanding, and do you have Any"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2400.21,"endTime":2402.7,"body":"idea who I think that award"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2400.21,"endTime":2402.7,"body":"should go to?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2402.85,"endTime":2410.95,"body":"Oh, you embarrass me."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2402.85,"endTime":2410.95,"body":"Go ahead. I have no idea. Well,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2410.95,"endTime":2412.87,"body":"if I tell you the name"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2410.95,"endTime":2412.87,"body":"Bill Meredith"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2412.959,"endTime":2415.359,"body":"No, it's the Lincoln"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2412.959,"endTime":2415.359,"body":"curveball, Meredith and T sec."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2415.629,"endTime":2419.979,"body":"It is the most creative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2415.629,"endTime":2419.979,"body":"contribution. I think since"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2419.979,"endTime":2420.699,"body":"Spearman"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2420.729,"endTime":2423.849,"body":"just unbelievable. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2420.729,"endTime":2423.849,"body":"again, this is one of those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2423.849,"endTime":2426.129,"body":"things that in hindsight, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2423.849,"endTime":2426.129,"body":"look at it, we go, oh, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2426.129,"endTime":2429.879,"body":"that's the way we do it. But the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2426.129,"endTime":2429.879,"body":"idea of literally taking the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2429.879,"endTime":2433.119,"body":"values of time, whether it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2429.879,"endTime":2433.119,"body":"hours or days, or years, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2433.119,"endTime":2437.379,"body":"whatever, and hard coding that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2433.119,"endTime":2437.379,"body":"into a confirmatory factor model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2437.379,"endTime":2442.449,"body":"to emulate a growth process to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2437.379,"endTime":2442.449,"body":"me is just like crazy thinking,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2442.479,"endTime":2443.319,"body":"fantastic."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2443.349,"endTime":2446.379,"body":"You're not going to let"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2443.349,"endTime":2446.379,"body":"me bring time in as a predictor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2446.379,"endTime":2451.299,"body":"into the SEM. Okay, I am going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2446.379,"endTime":2451.299,"body":"to take what you treated as a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2451.299,"endTime":2455.169,"body":"random variable, right? Think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2451.299,"endTime":2455.169,"body":"about a multi level model. Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2455.199,"endTime":2460.839,"body":"time is a predictor that is a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2455.199,"endTime":2460.839,"body":"column in your data file, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2460.839,"endTime":2465.639,"body":"you are regressing the outcome"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2460.839,"endTime":2465.639,"body":"on the predictor, and obtaining"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2465.669,"endTime":2468.909,"body":"fixed effects and random effects"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2465.669,"endTime":2468.909,"body":"that are associated with that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2469.329,"endTime":2472.689,"body":"And he said, I don't need your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2469.329,"endTime":2472.689,"body":"stinking predictor. I'm gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2472.689,"endTime":2477.129,"body":"take those values, I'm going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2472.689,"endTime":2477.129,"body":"fix them in a factor loading"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2477.129,"endTime":2481.629,"body":"matrix. Funny story, I'm gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2477.129,"endTime":2481.629,"body":"get exactly what you get, not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2481.629,"endTime":2485.259,"body":"kinda not the same discussion,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2481.629,"endTime":2485.259,"body":"not the same general conclusion,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2485.349,"endTime":2491.139,"body":"16 decimals out, I'm gonna get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2485.349,"endTime":2491.139,"body":"exactly what you get. But now we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2491.139,"endTime":2492.759,"body":"live inside the SEM."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2497.83,"endTime":2500.38,"body":"And the things that we can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2497.83,"endTime":2500.38,"body":"do within this framework are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2500.41,"endTime":2502.93,"body":"phenomenal. You and I had a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2500.41,"endTime":2502.93,"body":"whole episode, I think that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2502.93,"endTime":2507.88,"body":"involved some therapy with Dr."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2502.93,"endTime":2507.88,"body":"Michelle, where we talked a bit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2507.88,"endTime":2510.13,"body":"about some of the relative"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2507.88,"endTime":2510.13,"body":"merits of the different"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2510.13,"endTime":2513.79,"body":"approaches to being able to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2510.13,"endTime":2513.79,"body":"at growth, but your shortcomings"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2513.79,"endTime":2520.42,"body":"notwithstanding the thing about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2513.79,"endTime":2520.42,"body":"this framework, this whole? I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2520.42,"endTime":2521.38,"body":"statements, Patrick,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2521.41,"endTime":2523.09,"body":"I think you're a toll."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2525.55,"endTime":2528.28,"body":"So once we have growth"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2525.55,"endTime":2528.28,"body":"modeling, we already know that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2528.28,"endTime":2531.52,"body":"there are things that we can do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2528.28,"endTime":2531.52,"body":"within that framework that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2531.52,"endTime":2536.65,"body":"almost take for granted now,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2531.52,"endTime":2536.65,"body":"right? So if we say, Oh, I don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2536.65,"endTime":2540.22,"body":"necessarily want to have the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2536.65,"endTime":2540.22,"body":"initial time point as my frame"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2540.22,"endTime":2543.43,"body":"of reference, I would like to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2540.22,"endTime":2543.43,"body":"have the last time point as my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2543.43,"endTime":2546.25,"body":"frame of reference, or I would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2543.43,"endTime":2546.25,"body":"like to have some middle time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2546.25,"endTime":2549.58,"body":"point as my frame of reference."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2546.25,"endTime":2549.58,"body":"That's really parameterizing the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2549.58,"endTime":2552.94,"body":"model. You want something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2549.58,"endTime":2552.94,"body":"quadratic? Well, God bless you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2552.97,"endTime":2555.97,"body":"throw on a factor Wait, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2552.97,"endTime":2555.97,"body":"fits imaginary, that's right,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2556.0,"endTime":2559.63,"body":"throw one, this latent thing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2556.0,"endTime":2559.63,"body":"that represents a quadratic"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2559.75,"endTime":2562.93,"body":"code, the loadings to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2559.75,"endTime":2562.93,"body":"reflective of that quadratic"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2562.93,"endTime":2566.2,"body":"effect, and darn it if you don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2562.93,"endTime":2566.2,"body":"have a quadratic model there. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2566.2,"endTime":2569.11,"body":"this is something that we have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2566.2,"endTime":2569.11,"body":"certain amount of experience re"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2569.11,"endTime":2573.01,"body":"parameterizing, even within just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2569.11,"endTime":2573.01,"body":"sort of this basic framework,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2573.07,"endTime":2576.28,"body":"and what I love is we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2573.07,"endTime":2576.28,"body":"started with changing the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2576.28,"endTime":2579.13,"body":"numerical scale, then how do you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2576.28,"endTime":2579.13,"body":"combine your predictors, then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2579.13,"endTime":2581.83,"body":"how do you combine your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2579.13,"endTime":2581.83,"body":"parameters, and now we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2581.83,"endTime":2585.34,"body":"leaning back and putting our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2581.83,"endTime":2585.34,"body":"hands behind our head and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2585.34,"endTime":2588.13,"body":"saying, You know what, I'm going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2585.34,"endTime":2588.13,"body":"to take a computer program, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2588.16,"endTime":2593.2,"body":"I'm going to treat it like an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2588.16,"endTime":2593.2,"body":"optimizer. It's no longer an SEM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2593.2,"endTime":2598.3,"body":"program. This is an optimizer"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2593.2,"endTime":2598.3,"body":"for me, I am going to build the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.3,"endTime":2602.02,"body":"model that I want. And it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.3,"endTime":2602.02,"body":"going to give me maximum"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2602.02,"endTime":2605.5,"body":"likelihood estimates for it. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2602.02,"endTime":2605.5,"body":"you know what it's going to do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2605.5,"endTime":2609.7,"body":"what I tell it to do, right? I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2605.5,"endTime":2609.7,"body":"going to build a model not only"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2609.7,"endTime":2614.41,"body":"like Meredith, which is amazing."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2609.7,"endTime":2614.41,"body":"But think about when we talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2614.41,"endTime":2618.01,"body":"about her with moderated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2614.41,"endTime":2618.01,"body":"nonlinear factor analysis, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2618.01,"endTime":2621.88,"body":"are literally creating new"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2618.01,"endTime":2621.88,"body":"parameters in the model that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.88,"endTime":2624.49,"body":"we're not using as a calculator,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.88,"endTime":2624.49,"body":"right? That's right. When you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2624.49,"endTime":2628.03,"body":"describe computing omega and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2624.49,"endTime":2628.03,"body":"getting a confidence interval,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2628.15,"endTime":2631.03,"body":"that's actually not a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2628.15,"endTime":2631.03,"body":"restriction on the model, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2631.03,"endTime":2633.88,"body":"we're doing is taking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2631.03,"endTime":2633.88,"body":"parameters. And we're combining"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2633.88,"endTime":2637.21,"body":"them in ways that are of use to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2633.88,"endTime":2637.21,"body":"us moderated nonlinear factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2637.21,"endTime":2640.54,"body":"analysis and parameter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2637.21,"endTime":2640.54,"body":"moderation. And that whole"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2640.57,"endTime":2644.86,"body":"expansion from there is I am"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2640.57,"endTime":2644.86,"body":"literally going to impose"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.86,"endTime":2648.55,"body":"restrictions in a way that have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.86,"endTime":2648.55,"body":"meaning to me, that gives me a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2648.55,"endTime":2654.07,"body":"testable hypothesis that the box"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2648.55,"endTime":2654.07,"body":"of a nice flower shop does not."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2654.16,"endTime":2657.13,"body":"I have had so much fun in my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2654.16,"endTime":2657.13,"body":"brother's basement with my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2657.13,"endTime":2661.54,"body":"nieces. I'm not exaggerating,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2657.13,"endTime":2661.54,"body":"the pile of Legos is five feet"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2661.54,"endTime":2667.12,"body":"across. We put on music and lay"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2661.54,"endTime":2667.12,"body":"on the carpet, and we just talk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2667.15,"endTime":2672.52,"body":"and we build these things. This"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2667.15,"endTime":2672.52,"body":"final cluster of stuff is you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2672.52,"endTime":2676.33,"body":"know what anise flower shop"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2672.52,"endTime":2676.33,"body":"doesn't even exist. You start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2676.33,"endTime":2680.2,"body":"with a single piece and you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2676.33,"endTime":2680.2,"body":"build that any darn way you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2680.2,"endTime":2681.43,"body":"please, we can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2681.43,"endTime":2684.55,"body":"operate within an existing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2681.43,"endTime":2684.55,"body":"framework, right? We can talk"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2684.55,"endTime":2688.36,"body":"about clever ways to build"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2684.55,"endTime":2688.36,"body":"things within a factor framework"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2688.42,"endTime":2692.23,"body":"or clever ways to build things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2688.42,"endTime":2692.23,"body":"within a mediation and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2692.23,"endTime":2695.5,"body":"moderation framework. We can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2692.23,"endTime":2695.5,"body":"talk about clever ways to build"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2695.5,"endTime":2698.62,"body":"things within a growth"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2695.5,"endTime":2698.62,"body":"framework, or we can say exactly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2698.62,"endTime":2702.07,"body":"what you're talking about, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2698.62,"endTime":2702.07,"body":"And that is just, you know, all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2702.07,"endTime":2704.65,"body":"the pieces are out there in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2702.07,"endTime":2704.65,"body":"front of me. What do I want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2704.65,"endTime":2705.43,"body":"build today,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2705.639,"endTime":2709.989,"body":"Milan hotels, animals,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2705.639,"endTime":2709.989,"body":"people, boats, skyscrapers and"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2709.989,"endTime":2710.559,"body":"more."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2710.77,"endTime":2713.08,"body":"When you and I came up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2710.77,"endTime":2713.08,"body":"through the system, you were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2713.08,"endTime":2716.05,"body":"living at home, I was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2713.08,"endTime":2716.05,"body":"temporarily living in the dorms."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2716.68,"endTime":2719.05,"body":"For those of you at the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2716.68,"endTime":2719.05,"body":"University of Colorado, I was in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2719.05,"endTime":2723.1,"body":"the Kittredge complex briefly."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2719.05,"endTime":2723.1,"body":"We were addicted to David"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2723.1,"endTime":2726.91,"body":"Letterman, David Letterman had"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2723.1,"endTime":2726.91,"body":"the top 10 lists, and he had all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2726.91,"endTime":2732.16,"body":"these things. And he had Stupid"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2726.91,"endTime":2732.16,"body":"Pet Tricks. And then it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2732.16,"endTime":2735.49,"body":"generalized to stupid human"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2732.16,"endTime":2735.49,"body":"tricks."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2735.67,"endTime":2737.98,"body":"And it's on the stupid"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2735.67,"endTime":2737.98,"body":"human tricks. Ladies, gentlemen,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2738.19,"endTime":2741.43,"body":"nice young people come here, and"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2738.19,"endTime":2741.43,"body":"they perform a little tricks"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2741.43,"endTime":2744.76,"body":"that they've learned. And"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2741.43,"endTime":2744.76,"body":"they're not stupid people by any"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2744.76,"endTime":2748.96,"body":"stretch of the imagination, but"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2744.76,"endTime":2748.96,"body":"they have learned stupid tricks."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.44,"endTime":2751.66,"body":"I then was at a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.44,"endTime":2751.66,"body":"conference and it was one of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2751.66,"endTime":2757.48,"body":"very first times that I had seen"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2751.66,"endTime":2757.48,"body":"you present. And you gave an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2757.48,"endTime":2763.87,"body":"entire talk titled something"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2757.48,"endTime":2763.87,"body":"like stupid lizard tricks. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2763.9,"endTime":2770.83,"body":"it was human preacher. And you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2763.9,"endTime":2770.83,"body":"just decided to see how far can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2770.83,"endTime":2776.2,"body":"we push the envelope on getting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2770.83,"endTime":2776.2,"body":"Liz roll to swallow a heroin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2776.2,"endTime":2781.27,"body":"filled condom and get on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2776.2,"endTime":2781.27,"body":"plane. Tell us about stupid"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2781.27,"endTime":2782.35,"body":"LISREL tricks."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2782.98,"endTime":2785.17,"body":"I don't remember that pero"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2782.98,"endTime":2785.17,"body":"Winfield kind of, but anyway,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2785.2,"endTime":2788.44,"body":"they have a better memory than I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2785.2,"endTime":2788.44,"body":"do. And let me be completely"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2788.44,"endTime":2792.07,"body":"fair about this historically,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2788.44,"endTime":2792.07,"body":"Chris preacher used to keep a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2792.07,"endTime":2795.49,"body":"list of stupid lists, rail"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2792.07,"endTime":2795.49,"body":"tricks, which are really just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2795.49,"endTime":2798.67,"body":"stupid structural equation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2795.49,"endTime":2798.67,"body":"modeling tricks, ways to coax"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2798.67,"endTime":2801.88,"body":"out of models, things that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2798.67,"endTime":2801.88,"body":"want. And there was a time when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2801.88,"endTime":2804.94,"body":"he and I ping pong back and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2801.88,"endTime":2804.94,"body":"forth different tricks for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2804.94,"endTime":2808.96,"body":"getting things that ultimately"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2804.94,"endTime":2808.96,"body":"led to this collaboration that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2808.96,"endTime":2812.47,"body":"he and I had. And it was within"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2808.96,"endTime":2812.47,"body":"a growth modeling framework. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2812.47,"endTime":2814.96,"body":"I think it's really in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2812.47,"endTime":2814.96,"body":"spirit of what you're talking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2814.96,"endTime":2817.66,"body":"about. So I'm going to explain"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2814.96,"endTime":2817.66,"body":"it within the context of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2817.66,"endTime":2821.5,"body":"growth modeling framework."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2817.66,"endTime":2821.5,"body":"Imagine you were looking at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2821.5,"endTime":2825.31,"body":"nonlinear growth in the form of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2821.5,"endTime":2825.31,"body":"let's say, a logistic function"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2825.31,"endTime":2828.46,"body":"where people start off slow,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2825.31,"endTime":2828.46,"body":"then they kind of speed up and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2828.46,"endTime":2832.09,"body":"then they taper off. Well, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2828.46,"endTime":2832.09,"body":"if you're interested in knowing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2832.12,"endTime":2836.53,"body":"at what time point is it that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2832.12,"endTime":2836.53,"body":"someone is transitioning from"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2836.56,"endTime":2840.01,"body":"growing to tapering off? Right,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2836.56,"endTime":2840.01,"body":"and their specific points along"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2840.01,"endTime":2842.44,"body":"the logistic function where that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2840.01,"endTime":2842.44,"body":"might be happening? And you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2842.44,"endTime":2844.81,"body":"think, well, first of all, how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2842.44,"endTime":2844.81,"body":"the heck do I even model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2844.81,"endTime":2848.89,"body":"logistic growth? And second of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2844.81,"endTime":2848.89,"body":"all, how do I even get that out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2848.95,"endTime":2851.47,"body":"of the model? Well, that's the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2848.95,"endTime":2851.47,"body":"kind of thing that Chris and I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2851.47,"endTime":2853.54,"body":"are saying, Well, that seems"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2851.47,"endTime":2853.54,"body":"like something someone might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2853.54,"endTime":2857.53,"body":"want to do. If you think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2853.54,"endTime":2857.53,"body":"growth, that is piecewise."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2857.56,"endTime":2861.43,"body":"People might follow a particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2857.56,"endTime":2861.43,"body":"function for a while, and then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2861.58,"endTime":2864.79,"body":"all of a sudden bend up in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2861.58,"endTime":2864.79,"body":"different direction, or bend"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2864.79,"endTime":2866.92,"body":"down in a different direction"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2864.79,"endTime":2866.92,"body":"where your growth function is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2866.92,"endTime":2870.04,"body":"characterized by these multiple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2866.92,"endTime":2870.04,"body":"lines that have been spliced"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2870.04,"endTime":2873.16,"body":"together spline, okay, well,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2870.04,"endTime":2873.16,"body":"that point where they come"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2873.16,"endTime":2876.22,"body":"together, sometimes referred to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2873.16,"endTime":2876.22,"body":"as a knot. What if you want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2876.22,"endTime":2879.64,"body":"estimate where that knot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2876.22,"endTime":2879.64,"body":"location is? Well, some work by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2879.64,"endTime":2883.39,"body":"Jeff herring and Bob queue deck"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2879.64,"endTime":2883.39,"body":"and Steven Dutoit laid out how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2883.39,"endTime":2886.15,"body":"you can make that a parameter in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2883.39,"endTime":2886.15,"body":"your model. Because if you think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2886.15,"endTime":2889.3,"body":"about, where's that parameter in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2886.15,"endTime":2889.3,"body":"a model, how can we trick a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2889.3,"endTime":2892.9,"body":"model to be able to estimate"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2889.3,"endTime":2892.9,"body":"that and these are all just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2892.9,"endTime":2896.32,"body":"things that we might want to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2892.9,"endTime":2896.32,"body":"out that aren't normal parts of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2896.32,"endTime":2900.25,"body":"the model? Tessa Johnson and I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2896.32,"endTime":2900.25,"body":"Intesa our old like one of our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2900.25,"endTime":2903.82,"body":"original Friends of the pod"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2900.25,"endTime":2903.82,"body":"test, and I had a paper come out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2903.82,"endTime":2907.87,"body":"a couple of years ago on what we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2903.82,"endTime":2907.87,"body":"call time to criterion growth"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2907.87,"endTime":2912.01,"body":"models. The idea is that how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2907.87,"endTime":2912.01,"body":"long do we expect it will take"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2912.01,"endTime":2915.01,"body":"somebody to reach a particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2912.01,"endTime":2915.01,"body":"threshold of proficiency? At"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2915.01,"endTime":2918.94,"body":"what time point will that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2915.01,"endTime":2918.94,"body":"happen? How do we reengineer a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2918.94,"endTime":2921.91,"body":"growth model to make that a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2918.94,"endTime":2921.91,"body":"particular parameter in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2921.91,"endTime":2925.51,"body":"model, and it's not just a given"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2921.91,"endTime":2925.51,"body":"parameter as though it works for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2925.51,"endTime":2928.45,"body":"everybody. But it's something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2925.51,"endTime":2928.45,"body":"that has individual differences"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2928.69,"endTime":2931.09,"body":"with all of these examples,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2928.69,"endTime":2931.09,"body":"something that Chris and I were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2931.09,"endTime":2934.63,"body":"talking about a number of years"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2931.09,"endTime":2934.63,"body":"ago, and that he 100% was the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2934.63,"endTime":2938.38,"body":"brains behind? He and I wrote a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2934.63,"endTime":2938.38,"body":"couple of papers, one that was a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2938.38,"endTime":2941.65,"body":"book chapter and then one that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2938.38,"endTime":2941.65,"body":"was a psych methods article with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2941.65,"endTime":2947.26,"body":"the underlying theme being how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2941.65,"endTime":2947.26,"body":"can you get whatever you want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.35,"endTime":2952.0,"body":"out of a growth model? And so in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.35,"endTime":2952.0,"body":"2012, we talked about ways that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2952.0,"endTime":2955.06,"body":"you can identify a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2952.0,"endTime":2955.06,"body":"characteristic of growth that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2955.06,"endTime":2958.15,"body":"you are interested in that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2955.06,"endTime":2958.15,"body":"think that there is a fixed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2958.18,"endTime":2962.08,"body":"value for that cuts across an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2958.18,"endTime":2962.08,"body":"entire population. How can you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2962.08,"endTime":2966.1,"body":"retool a growth model to be able"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2962.08,"endTime":2966.1,"body":"to get that kind of thing out?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2966.43,"endTime":2970.63,"body":"And we outlined sort of a four"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2966.43,"endTime":2970.63,"body":"step process for doing that. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2970.63,"endTime":2974.65,"body":"then in 2015, we said, well,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2970.63,"endTime":2974.65,"body":"what if that differs for people?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2974.68,"endTime":2978.43,"body":"What if that's a random value?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2974.68,"endTime":2978.43,"body":"So for example, think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2978.43,"endTime":2982.15,"body":"that, not in a spline model,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2978.43,"endTime":2982.15,"body":"where if we think growth is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2982.15,"endTime":2986.26,"body":"characterized by two segments,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2982.15,"endTime":2986.26,"body":"but those two segments don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2986.26,"endTime":2990.28,"body":"necessarily meet in the same"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2986.26,"endTime":2990.28,"body":"location for people, how do we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2990.31,"endTime":2994.0,"body":"estimate what an average not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2990.31,"endTime":2994.0,"body":"location is? How do we estimate"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2994.0,"endTime":2997.3,"body":"the variability and not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2994.0,"endTime":2997.3,"body":"location? And then how do we do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2997.3,"endTime":3000.78,"body":"cool things like build"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2997.3,"endTime":3000.78,"body":"predictors in a that particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3000.78,"endTime":3004.02,"body":"characteristic. And so what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3000.78,"endTime":3004.02,"body":"Chris and I did, which totally"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3004.02,"endTime":3006.9,"body":"falls in the family of stupid"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3004.02,"endTime":3006.9,"body":"LISREL tricks, stupid structural"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3006.9,"endTime":3010.47,"body":"equation modeling tricks, is we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3006.9,"endTime":3010.47,"body":"outlined a process where you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3010.47,"endTime":3013.38,"body":"identify the characteristic that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3010.47,"endTime":3013.38,"body":"you want, you figure out a way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3013.38,"endTime":3016.56,"body":"to get it in your model, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3013.38,"endTime":3016.56,"body":"figure out a way to parameterize"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3016.56,"endTime":3020.73,"body":"it, estimate it. And the idea"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3016.56,"endTime":3020.73,"body":"wasn't just to be able to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3020.73,"endTime":3025.02,"body":"people to estimate random knots"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3020.73,"endTime":3025.02,"body":"or something like that. The idea"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3025.02,"endTime":3027.63,"body":"was to be able to lay out a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3025.02,"endTime":3027.63,"body":"framework to get people to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3027.81,"endTime":3031.32,"body":"whatever they want out of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3027.81,"endTime":3031.32,"body":"model. In this case, it was a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3031.32,"endTime":3032.28,"body":"growth modeling framework."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3032.34,"endTime":3036.0,"body":"It was also in that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3032.34,"endTime":3036.0,"body":"talk that you threatened to kill"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3036.0,"endTime":3040.5,"body":"a kitten. For each person who"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3036.0,"endTime":3040.5,"body":"said, like hurt, you have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3040.5,"endTime":3044.4,"body":"impact on a room, as I'll give"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3040.5,"endTime":3044.4,"body":"you that. I love that body of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3044.4,"endTime":3049.89,"body":"work, because instead of saying,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3044.4,"endTime":3049.89,"body":"what is the latent curve model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3049.92,"endTime":3054.75,"body":"able to give you you're starting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3049.92,"endTime":3054.75,"body":"with what do I want from the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3054.75,"endTime":3059.49,"body":"latent curve model. It's just a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3054.75,"endTime":3059.49,"body":"different way of thinking and a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3059.49,"endTime":3062.46,"body":"different way of approaching"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3059.49,"endTime":3062.46,"body":"your data and your research"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3062.46,"endTime":3067.44,"body":"hypotheses, whether you are a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3062.46,"endTime":3067.44,"body":"Tony Robbins person."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":3067.8,"endTime":3070.2,"body":"So if you let someone"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":3067.8,"endTime":3070.2,"body":"else take control of your focus,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":3070.29,"endTime":3072.3,"body":"your life will be in someone"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":3070.29,"endTime":3072.3,"body":"else's hands,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3072.36,"endTime":3076.44,"body":"or a Stuart Smalley"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3072.36,"endTime":3076.44,"body":"person. Because I'm good enough."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":3076.77,"endTime":3080.67,"body":"I'm smart enough. And"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":3076.77,"endTime":3080.67,"body":"doggone it, people like me,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3080.81,"endTime":3084.44,"body":"or whether you are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3080.81,"endTime":3084.44,"body":"Maggie, who wants to put a laser"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3084.44,"endTime":3086.18,"body":"cannon on her flower shop."},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":3086.63,"endTime":3089.33,"body":"Hi Everyone, this is"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":3086.63,"endTime":3089.33,"body":"Maggie. And I really did put a"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":3089.33,"endTime":3093.2,"body":"laser cannon on top of Annie's"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":3089.33,"endTime":3093.2,"body":"flower shop. Also, Uncle Pat is"},{"speaker":"Maggie","startTime":3093.2,"endTime":3095.51,"body":"not very good at Legos, goodbye."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3096.42,"endTime":3100.02,"body":"All of those are saying"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3096.42,"endTime":3100.02,"body":"this is not testing my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3100.02,"endTime":3104.43,"body":"hypothesis in the ways that I'd"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3100.02,"endTime":3104.43,"body":"like. And so I'm going to build"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3104.43,"endTime":3108.21,"body":"it myself. And if we have a real"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3104.43,"endTime":3108.21,"body":"point to any of our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3108.21,"endTime":3113.22,"body":"conversations, this really is an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3108.21,"endTime":3113.22,"body":"empowerment one of think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3113.22,"endTime":3117.72,"body":"the question that you want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3113.22,"endTime":3117.72,"body":"empirically evaluate, and then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3117.75,"endTime":3121.68,"body":"modify whether it be your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3117.75,"endTime":3121.68,"body":"variables, your parameters, or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3121.68,"endTime":3125.97,"body":"the very model itself to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3121.68,"endTime":3125.97,"body":"what you want. So as we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3125.97,"endTime":3129.63,"body":"wrapping up here, if your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3125.97,"endTime":3129.63,"body":"Christmas timer is going to go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3129.63,"endTime":3133.8,"body":"off, in start playing your eight"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3129.63,"endTime":3133.8,"body":"track tape"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3133.949,"endTime":3135.779,"body":"was a cassette. It wasn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3133.949,"endTime":3135.779,"body":"an eight track,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3135.96,"endTime":3139.23,"body":"but give us a song to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3135.96,"endTime":3139.23,"body":"go out on what would inspire"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3139.23,"endTime":3139.74,"body":"you."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3140.159,"endTime":3146.069,"body":"The pressure. I don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3140.159,"endTime":3146.069,"body":"know. First, I was afraid. I was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3146.069,"endTime":3147.299,"body":"petrified."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3147.33,"endTime":3149.25,"body":"I did not ask you to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3147.33,"endTime":3149.25,"body":"sing it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3149.25,"endTime":3151.92,"body":"Don't Stop Believin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3151.95,"endTime":3155.91,"body":"Okay, folks, we so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3151.95,"endTime":3155.91,"body":"appreciate your time. I know. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3155.91,"endTime":3156.18,"body":"know."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3163.05,"endTime":3166.92,"body":"I texted you about this. I came"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3163.05,"endTime":3166.92,"body":"out in the living room. My"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3166.92,"endTime":3169.86,"body":"daughter was there with her"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3166.92,"endTime":3169.86,"body":"friend. They were doing a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3169.86,"endTime":3175.8,"body":"crossword puzzle on the floor,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3169.86,"endTime":3175.8,"body":"listening to my old albums, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3175.8,"endTime":3180.48,"body":"they had Steely Dan. They had"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3175.8,"endTime":3180.48,"body":"Yes. Oh, and there was the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3180.48,"endTime":3186.33,"body":"original Black Sabbath. I am"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3180.48,"endTime":3186.33,"body":"gonna go out on Black Sabbath"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3186.33,"endTime":3190.77,"body":"Iron Man. Awesome. Thank you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3186.33,"endTime":3190.77,"body":"everybody. We will talk to you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3190.77,"endTime":3201.96,"body":"next week. Take care thank you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3190.77,"endTime":3201.96,"body":"so much for listening. You can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3201.96,"endTime":3205.32,"body":"subscribe to quality food on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3201.96,"endTime":3205.32,"body":"Apple podcasts, Spotify, or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3205.32,"endTime":3207.9,"body":"wherever you download"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3205.32,"endTime":3207.9,"body":"instructions on how to build a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3207.9,"endTime":3210.99,"body":"rocket out of the head of a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3207.9,"endTime":3210.99,"body":"Greek god. And please leave us a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3210.99,"endTime":3214.56,"body":"review. You can follow us on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3210.99,"endTime":3214.56,"body":"Twitter we are at quantity food"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3214.56,"endTime":3218.79,"body":"pod and check out our webpage at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3214.56,"endTime":3218.79,"body":"quantity pod.org for past"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3218.79,"endTime":3221.97,"body":"episodes played lists shownotes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3218.79,"endTime":3221.97,"body":"transcripts and other cool"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3221.97,"endTime":3226.23,"body":"stuff. Finally, you can get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3221.97,"endTime":3226.23,"body":"quantitative themed emerge which"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3226.23,"endTime":3231.21,"body":"is distinctly not available on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3226.23,"endTime":3231.21,"body":"Amazon Prime day@redbubble.com"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3231.27,"endTime":3234.75,"body":"Where All proceeds go to Donors"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3231.27,"endTime":3234.75,"body":"Choose to support low income"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3234.75,"endTime":3239.01,"body":"schools. You have been listening"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3234.75,"endTime":3239.01,"body":"to quantity food. Your very own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3239.01,"endTime":3242.07,"body":"intellectual pile of Legos"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3239.01,"endTime":3242.07,"body":"scattered across the living room"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3242.07,"endTime":3246.15,"body":"floor corner today has been"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3242.07,"endTime":3246.15,"body":"brought to you by fat Bear Week,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3246.39,"endTime":3249.9,"body":"congratulating Greg and Patrick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3246.39,"endTime":3249.9,"body":"on their strong second place"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3249.9,"endTime":3254.52,"body":"finish only behind bear 747 and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3249.9,"endTime":3254.52,"body":"wishing them the best of luck"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3254.52,"endTime":3258.96,"body":"next year by the student loan"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3254.52,"endTime":3258.96,"body":"debt relief program, a truly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3258.96,"endTime":3262.95,"body":"remarkable resource for millions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3258.96,"endTime":3262.95,"body":"of students, even if a bit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3262.95,"endTime":3266.55,"body":"unfair to those of us in our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3262.95,"endTime":3266.55,"body":"generation who paid tuition with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3266.55,"endTime":3271.05,"body":"live chickens, shiny rocks and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3266.55,"endTime":3271.05,"body":"seashells. And by the North"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3271.05,"endTime":3274.95,"body":"Carolina State Fair, teaching"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3271.05,"endTime":3274.95,"body":"the next generation of youth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3274.95,"endTime":3279.57,"body":"about model misspecification one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3274.95,"endTime":3279.57,"body":"mole at a time. This is most"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3279.57,"endTime":3282.51,"body":"definitely not in PR"}]}