{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":4.5,"endTime":7.23,"body":"Welcome my name is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":4.5,"endTime":7.23,"body":"Patrick Curran and along with my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":7.23,"endTime":10.68,"body":"missing completely at random"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":7.23,"endTime":10.68,"body":"friend Greg Hancock we make up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":10.68,"endTime":13.86,"body":"quantity Dude, we are a podcast"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":10.68,"endTime":13.86,"body":"dedicated to all things"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":13.86,"endTime":16.74,"body":"quantitative ranging from the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":13.86,"endTime":16.74,"body":"irrelevant to the completely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.74,"endTime":19.44,"body":"irrelevant. In this week's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.74,"endTime":19.44,"body":"episode, Greg and I get to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":19.44,"endTime":22.83,"body":"explore modern methods for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":19.44,"endTime":22.83,"body":"missing data analysis while"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":22.83,"endTime":26.58,"body":"belaboring quotes from Top Gun"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":22.83,"endTime":26.58,"body":"with our guest, Craig Enders"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":26.61,"endTime":30.78,"body":"callsign. The Fly. Craig looks"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":26.61,"endTime":30.78,"body":"back over the past 20 years of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":30.78,"endTime":33.69,"body":"development and missing data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":30.78,"endTime":33.69,"body":"analysis to discuss what has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":33.69,"endTime":37.11,"body":"worked, what hasn't worked, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":33.69,"endTime":37.11,"body":"what new methods are available"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":37.11,"endTime":40.35,"body":"now that we didn't have back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":37.11,"endTime":40.35,"body":"then. Along the way we also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":40.35,"endTime":46.29,"body":"discuss Shawn, not Shawn, going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":40.35,"endTime":46.29,"body":"to the movies, grumpy old man"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":46.29,"endTime":51.75,"body":"mode, wiener boy, Grave Digger,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":46.29,"endTime":51.75,"body":"Venice Beach zoom backgrounds,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":51.93,"endTime":57.18,"body":"lie awake, hung over juries,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":51.93,"endTime":57.18,"body":"Greg's grandmother, shiny"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.18,"endTime":62.79,"body":"objects, Motorola flip phones,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.18,"endTime":62.79,"body":"Ask Jeeves talking nor walls,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.0,"endTime":67.95,"body":"mimeograph unscrewing yourself,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.0,"endTime":67.95,"body":"and who can be whose wing man,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":68.28,"endTime":74.04,"body":"we hope you enjoy this week's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":68.28,"endTime":74.04,"body":"episode. So I'm not sure if I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":74.04,"endTime":78.72,"body":"agree that the pandemic is over."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":74.04,"endTime":78.72,"body":"But it sure is fun to start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":78.72,"endTime":81.0,"body":"getting back to some kinds of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":78.72,"endTime":81.0,"body":"things,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":81.09,"endTime":84.0,"body":"given that I just had"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":81.09,"endTime":84.0,"body":"COVID I'm pretty sure it's not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":84.0,"endTime":87.54,"body":"over yet. So much. I'm sorry,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":87.57,"endTime":91.2,"body":"you had not responded"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":87.57,"endTime":91.2,"body":"to one of my emails. I pinged"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":91.2,"endTime":94.59,"body":"you on it. And you responded"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":91.2,"endTime":94.59,"body":"sorry. I've been asleep for 36"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":94.59,"endTime":100.29,"body":"hours. It's true. One of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":94.59,"endTime":100.29,"body":"things that I'm enjoying getting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.29,"endTime":105.33,"body":"back to is our bands are moving"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.29,"endTime":105.33,"body":"back indoors for almost two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":105.33,"endTime":108.69,"body":"years. We played in picnic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":105.33,"endTime":108.69,"body":"shelters and on basketball"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":108.69,"endTime":111.87,"body":"courts. But you know what is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":108.69,"endTime":111.87,"body":"really fun people who've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":111.87,"endTime":117.42,"body":"listened to prior episodes of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":111.87,"endTime":117.42,"body":"the podcast know about Shan Shan"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":117.42,"endTime":122.79,"body":"Shan is my nemesis because in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":117.42,"endTime":122.79,"body":"quintet Sean plays first trumpet"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":122.79,"endTime":126.24,"body":"and I play suncat trumpet. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":122.79,"endTime":126.24,"body":"no matter how much I practice,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":126.24,"endTime":130.41,"body":"no matter how much better I get,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":126.24,"endTime":130.41,"body":"Shawn is always better. And the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":130.41,"endTime":133.56,"body":"frustrating thing was Shawn is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":130.41,"endTime":133.56,"body":"he is one of the nicest guys"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":133.56,"endTime":136.62,"body":"you're ever going to meet on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":133.56,"endTime":136.62,"body":"face of the planet. But what is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":136.62,"endTime":142.86,"body":"so fun and it's already causing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":136.62,"endTime":142.86,"body":"me anxiety. Shawn is getting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":142.86,"endTime":147.03,"body":"married and the quintet is going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":142.86,"endTime":147.03,"body":"to play it as wedding. Oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":147.06,"endTime":149.01,"body":"he let you be in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":147.06,"endTime":149.01,"body":"quintet. Really?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":149.04,"endTime":153.27,"body":"I am in the quintet."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":149.04,"endTime":153.27,"body":"Okay, wow, that's one of my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":153.27,"endTime":156.99,"body":"favorite things post pandemic."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":153.27,"endTime":156.99,"body":"Nice. What are you enjoying"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":156.99,"endTime":157.86,"body":"getting back to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":157.89,"endTime":160.95,"body":"so one of the things I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":157.89,"endTime":160.95,"body":"absolutely love to do with the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":160.95,"endTime":164.49,"body":"family, even by myself is I like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":160.95,"endTime":164.49,"body":"going to movies. You know, it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":164.49,"endTime":167.49,"body":"very cool that we can stream"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":164.49,"endTime":167.49,"body":"things at home. But I actually"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":167.49,"endTime":172.08,"body":"love the physical environment of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":167.49,"endTime":172.08,"body":"the movie theater. And for a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":172.08,"endTime":175.59,"body":"couple of years, we just didn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":172.08,"endTime":175.59,"body":"go. So I'm finally able to go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":175.59,"endTime":178.98,"body":"back into the theater. Take the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":175.59,"endTime":178.98,"body":"kids. I am really, really happy"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":178.98,"endTime":179.46,"body":"about that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.49,"endTime":183.27,"body":"Okay, so I love that as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.49,"endTime":183.27,"body":"well. I know it's very rare that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":183.27,"endTime":188.85,"body":"I do this. Can I go into grumpy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":183.27,"endTime":188.85,"body":"old man mode? Would you Okay, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":188.88,"endTime":194.28,"body":"movies you and I went to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":188.88,"endTime":194.28,"body":"included Ghostbusters. Bill and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":194.28,"endTime":199.23,"body":"Ted's Excellent Adventure. The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":194.28,"endTime":199.23,"body":"Matrix Batman Star Wars? Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":199.26,"endTime":203.31,"body":"big blockbuster movies that have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":199.26,"endTime":203.31,"body":"been out are Ghostbusters"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":203.31,"endTime":209.73,"body":"building. Adventure. The Matrix"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":203.31,"endTime":209.73,"body":"Batman Star Wars. Dude, what are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":209.73,"endTime":212.07,"body":"they gonna start writing new"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":209.73,"endTime":212.07,"body":"material?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":212.16,"endTime":216.06,"body":"It's true. And I haven't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":212.16,"endTime":216.06,"body":"seen most of those. But there's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":216.06,"endTime":219.09,"body":"a part of me that's like, that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":216.06,"endTime":219.09,"body":"like from a different chapter in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":219.09,"endTime":220.26,"body":"my life. So I'm not sure"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":220.32,"endTime":224.7,"body":"I drove my kid down to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":220.32,"endTime":224.7,"body":"Atlanta over the summer, and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":224.73,"endTime":228.15,"body":"laid up in town overnight at a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":224.73,"endTime":228.15,"body":"hotel before driving back to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":228.15,"endTime":232.26,"body":"Chapel Hill. I went over to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":228.15,"endTime":232.26,"body":"movie Plex and right there on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":232.26,"endTime":237.6,"body":"their biggest screen was Top Gun"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":232.26,"endTime":237.6,"body":"part two, and I thought I Here"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":237.6,"endTime":241.14,"body":"we go another sequel? Uh huh. It"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":237.6,"endTime":241.14,"body":"was one of the best movies I've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":241.14,"endTime":242.67,"body":"seen in like 20 years."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":242.82,"endTime":245.82,"body":"Completely agree. I don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":242.82,"endTime":245.82,"body":"want to give it away for people"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":245.82,"endTime":249.75,"body":"who haven't seen it yet. But I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":245.82,"endTime":249.75,"body":"think they got just about every"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":249.75,"endTime":252.75,"body":"aspect of that. Right? I want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":249.75,"endTime":252.75,"body":"go see it again. Honestly."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":252.78,"endTime":255.57,"body":"Exactly. It was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":252.78,"endTime":255.57,"body":"amazing. If you have any"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":255.57,"endTime":259.14,"body":"affinity for either action"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":255.57,"endTime":259.14,"body":"movies, or kind of a romantic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":259.14,"endTime":263.94,"body":"tied to the original Top Gun. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":259.14,"endTime":263.94,"body":"highly recommend this now. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":263.94,"endTime":264.87,"body":"just had an idea."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":265.89,"endTime":269.37,"body":"I think No good can come"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":265.89,"endTime":269.37,"body":"from this but okay, what I think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":269.37,"endTime":271.44,"body":"we should give each"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":269.37,"endTime":271.44,"body":"other call signs for this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":271.44,"endTime":271.95,"body":"episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":274.11,"endTime":276.57,"body":"You say that as though you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":274.11,"endTime":276.57,"body":"have a list of I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":277.35,"endTime":280.02,"body":"actually do not because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":277.35,"endTime":280.02,"body":"I didn't know we were even going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.02,"endTime":283.23,"body":"to talk about Top Gun. All"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.02,"endTime":283.23,"body":"right, but I could come up with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":283.23,"endTime":285.9,"body":"some suggestions. I'll tell you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":283.23,"endTime":285.9,"body":"what, because you know, in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.9,"endTime":289.71,"body":"reality, you don't pick your own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.9,"endTime":289.71,"body":"callsign the other pilots give"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":289.71,"endTime":292.65,"body":"it to you. Oh, I did not know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":289.71,"endTime":292.65,"body":"that. So I'm gonna give you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":292.68,"endTime":295.89,"body":"three and I'm gonna let you pick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":292.68,"endTime":295.89,"body":"which one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":295.89,"endTime":297.72,"body":"is okay. Yeah, great"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.75,"endTime":299.4,"body":"for the rest of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.75,"endTime":299.4,"body":"episode."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":300.0,"endTime":302.16,"body":"Who are your friends?"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":300.0,"endTime":302.16,"body":"Pay back, fanboy, what do they"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":302.16,"endTime":306.09,"body":"call you, Bob. No, your"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":302.16,"endTime":306.09,"body":"callsign. Bob. Literally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":308.49,"endTime":310.98,"body":"right? wiener boy."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":313.41,"endTime":315.48,"body":"It's hard to believe you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":313.41,"endTime":315.48,"body":"didn't already have that written"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":315.48,"endTime":316.95,"body":"down, but okay, go ahead"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":316.98,"endTime":318.36,"body":"staphylococcus."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":319.619,"endTime":322.289,"body":"Does that actually fit on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":319.619,"endTime":322.289,"body":"the helmet? I would just wrap"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":322.289,"endTime":325.079,"body":"around all the way to the back."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":322.289,"endTime":325.079,"body":"I think the staff would hit the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":325.079,"endTime":325.619,"body":"caucus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":325.65,"endTime":329.19,"body":"use a small font. Okay,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":325.65,"endTime":329.19,"body":"and the third one and I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":329.19,"endTime":332.22,"body":"drawing from last night on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":329.19,"endTime":332.22,"body":"back deck reading Winston."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":332.939,"endTime":335.549,"body":"These are the options."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":332.939,"endTime":335.549,"body":"Three wiener boy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.67,"endTime":339.09,"body":"stuff. Those are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.67,"endTime":339.09,"body":"Winston. Dude just picking up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":339.09,"endTime":342.51,"body":"this is not brain surgery here."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":339.09,"endTime":342.51,"body":"All right, I'll be wiener boy."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":342.54,"endTime":347.34,"body":"Okay, wiener boy. Outstanding."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":342.54,"endTime":347.34,"body":"Alright, so my choices are Night"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":347.34,"endTime":348.06,"body":"Fury,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":348.0,"endTime":350.25,"body":"wait, wait, wait, wait,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":348.0,"endTime":350.25,"body":"wait, wait. I get to come up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":350.25,"endTime":351.18,"body":"with choices for you."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":351.21,"endTime":353.07,"body":"I thought you weren't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":351.21,"endTime":353.07,"body":"paying attention to that. Oh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":353.07,"endTime":353.31,"body":"hell"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":353.31,"endTime":357.24,"body":"no, I've been writing them"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":353.31,"endTime":357.24,"body":"down. Ready? I scribbled down a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":357.24,"endTime":360.78,"body":"bunch so I can't really narrow"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":357.24,"endTime":360.78,"body":"it down to three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":360.78,"endTime":362.25,"body":"clock is ticking. All"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":360.78,"endTime":362.25,"body":"right."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":362.28,"endTime":363.21,"body":"Whack a Mole."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":364.56,"endTime":366.45,"body":"Reaper. Ooh, that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":364.56,"endTime":366.45,"body":"badass."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":366.45,"endTime":368.88,"body":"I know. Grave Digger. Not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":366.45,"endTime":368.88,"body":"bad."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":368.91,"endTime":378.15,"body":"Okay, these are Monster"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":368.91,"endTime":378.15,"body":"Truck names. Okay. Why do you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":379.29,"endTime":384.72,"body":"not talk about that? What's your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":379.29,"endTime":384.72,"body":"third one? That was three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":384.72,"endTime":385.14,"body":"actually."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":385.14,"endTime":387.96,"body":"So I have a fourth one."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":385.14,"endTime":387.96,"body":"Not Sean."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.61,"endTime":392.97,"body":"That's it. Alright, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.61,"endTime":392.97,"body":"we got wiener boy and not Sean."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":393.87,"endTime":397.5,"body":"Done and done. Now. You know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":393.87,"endTime":397.5,"body":"what something else that was not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":397.5,"endTime":401.04,"body":"phoned in this summer as a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":397.5,"endTime":401.04,"body":"sequel was one of my favorite"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":401.04,"endTime":403.68,"body":"people in the whole world. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":401.04,"endTime":403.68,"body":"I'm not saying that just because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":403.68,"endTime":406.2,"body":"he's sitting on zoom right now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":403.68,"endTime":406.2,"body":"listening to us and hasn't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":406.2,"endTime":410.1,"body":"talked yet. Is Craig Enders. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":406.2,"endTime":410.1,"body":"Craig Enders released the second"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":410.1,"endTime":413.94,"body":"edition of his book on missing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":410.1,"endTime":413.94,"body":"data analysis. And I gotta tell"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":413.94,"endTime":418.23,"body":"you for a sequel released over"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":413.94,"endTime":418.23,"body":"the summer this one parallels"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":418.26,"endTime":418.86,"body":"Top Gun."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":418.89,"endTime":421.95,"body":"Honestly, I might even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":418.89,"endTime":421.95,"body":"like it a little bit better than"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":421.95,"endTime":424.47,"body":"Top Gun Maverick. I know. I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":421.95,"endTime":424.47,"body":"don't."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":424.65,"endTime":427.56,"body":"The end is inevitable"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":424.65,"endTime":427.56,"body":"Maverick kindness headed for"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":427.56,"endTime":430.32,"body":"extinction. Maybe so sorry. But"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":427.56,"endTime":430.32,"body":"not today."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":432.66,"endTime":434.85,"body":"I mean, it's really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":432.66,"endTime":434.85,"body":"close. But if you're gonna make"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":434.85,"endTime":439.56,"body":"me rank order them. Right now,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":434.85,"endTime":439.56,"body":"folks, Craig's like Shawn, in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":439.59,"endTime":443.31,"body":"that you want to not like him"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":439.59,"endTime":443.31,"body":"because he's so good at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":443.31,"endTime":447.48,"body":"everything that he does, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":443.31,"endTime":447.48,"body":"that he is too nice. He's too"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":447.48,"endTime":452.25,"body":"funny. He is too engaged in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":447.48,"endTime":452.25,"body":"field. He is cooler than you and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":452.25,"endTime":456.69,"body":"me combined. Now when we got on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":452.25,"endTime":456.69,"body":"to zoom about 15 minutes ago,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":456.69,"endTime":460.74,"body":"Greg said is that Zoom"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":456.69,"endTime":460.74,"body":"background? Because it's this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":460.74,"endTime":465.72,"body":"like kind of bamboo wive plants?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":460.74,"endTime":465.72,"body":"Nope. Craig is sitting on his"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":465.72,"endTime":469.35,"body":"rooftop at Venice Beach and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":465.72,"endTime":469.35,"body":"just can't compete with that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":469.38,"endTime":471.69,"body":"So if you're done talking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":469.38,"endTime":471.69,"body":"now, Patrick, I'm going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":471.69,"endTime":474.09,"body":"unmute Craig here. There we go."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":471.69,"endTime":474.09,"body":"Welcome, Craig. Hey,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":474.09,"endTime":476.82,"body":"thanks. Is this where you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":474.09,"endTime":476.82,"body":"hear the sultry sax music?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":477.72,"endTime":478.77,"body":"We can do that."},{"speaker":"Tate","startTime":479.08,"endTime":482.83,"body":"Hi, the Tate Hancock"},{"speaker":"Tate","startTime":479.08,"endTime":482.83,"body":"callsign Kenny T. This one's for"},{"speaker":"Tate","startTime":482.83,"endTime":483.97,"body":"you Dr. Enders."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":492.0,"endTime":495.0,"body":"But if you prefer like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":492.0,"endTime":495.0,"body":"some really good trumpet music,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":495.03,"endTime":497.91,"body":"I know another guy who's really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":495.03,"endTime":497.91,"body":"good. Yep.  Thanks"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":497.91,"endTime":501.75,"body":"wiener boy not now, not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":497.91,"endTime":501.75,"body":"Sean. One thing we love doing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":501.75,"endTime":505.44,"body":"when people visit is getting an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":501.75,"endTime":505.44,"body":"origin story because every"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":505.44,"endTime":509.37,"body":"single one of us has some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":505.44,"endTime":509.37,"body":"drunken stumbling from one thing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":509.37,"endTime":513.3,"body":"to another. That leads us to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":509.37,"endTime":513.3,"body":"where we are. Very briefly. Dr."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":513.3,"endTime":516.57,"body":"Craig Enders is a professor in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":513.3,"endTime":516.57,"body":"the quantitative psychology"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":516.57,"endTime":520.2,"body":"program at the University of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":516.57,"endTime":520.2,"body":"California at Los Angeles. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":520.2,"endTime":523.56,"body":"we're gonna let him introduce"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":520.2,"endTime":523.56,"body":"himself and give his own drunken"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":523.56,"endTime":525.87,"body":"stumbling story. So Craig,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":523.56,"endTime":525.87,"body":"welcome."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":525.96,"endTime":529.86,"body":"Hey, thanks, guys. origin"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":525.96,"endTime":529.86,"body":"story. So I was a psych major."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":529.89,"endTime":533.34,"body":"And, you know, I sort of liked"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":529.89,"endTime":533.34,"body":"everything about psychology, but"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":533.34,"endTime":537.54,"body":"then didn't like it, but not to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":533.34,"endTime":537.54,"body":"gravitate toward one specific"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":537.54,"endTime":541.74,"body":"thing. And simultaneously, you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":537.54,"endTime":541.74,"body":"know, I had been playing and was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":541.74,"endTime":546.39,"body":"playing in a rock band back then"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":541.74,"endTime":546.39,"body":"my only aspiration in life was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":546.39,"endTime":549.39,"body":"to be a musician, right? The"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":546.39,"endTime":549.39,"body":"only thing I liked to do early"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":549.39,"endTime":553.41,"body":"was sit around and program"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":549.39,"endTime":553.41,"body":"synthesizers. So academics was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":553.41,"endTime":557.37,"body":"sort of neither here or there"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":553.41,"endTime":557.37,"body":"for me, it was fine. I was going"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":557.37,"endTime":560.52,"body":"to college. It was the kid who"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":557.37,"endTime":560.52,"body":"would like show up late to class"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":560.52,"endTime":563.16,"body":"and sit in the back and fall"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":560.52,"endTime":563.16,"body":"asleep. Now where was that? It"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":563.16,"endTime":565.53,"body":"was at the University of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":563.16,"endTime":565.53,"body":"Nebraska and where did you grow"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":565.53,"endTime":570.21,"body":"up in Lincoln? Same place. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":565.53,"endTime":570.21,"body":"you know, college was whatever"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":570.57,"endTime":577.29,"body":"it was wasn't an engaged student"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":570.57,"endTime":577.29,"body":"at all. And you know, sort of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":577.29,"endTime":580.98,"body":"stumbling through doing good"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":577.29,"endTime":580.98,"body":"enough but had no intentions of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":580.98,"endTime":584.64,"body":"going to graduate school."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":580.98,"endTime":584.64,"body":"Certainly. So then my senior"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":584.64,"endTime":588.51,"body":"year, I had been putting off"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":584.64,"endTime":588.51,"body":"this advanced stat class that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":588.51,"endTime":591.99,"body":"all the psych majors have to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":588.51,"endTime":591.99,"body":"take and sort of dreading it"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":591.99,"endTime":596.58,"body":"like everybody does, and just"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":591.99,"endTime":596.58,"body":"had this amazing professor that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":596.58,"endTime":600.0,"body":"was life altering. His name's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":596.58,"endTime":600.0,"body":"Cal Garban. And you know, the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":600.0,"endTime":604.98,"body":"class was this hodgepodge of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":600.0,"endTime":604.98,"body":"psychometrics and statistics"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":605.19,"endTime":608.88,"body":"that a lot of real data sets"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":605.19,"endTime":608.88,"body":"that were interesting and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":608.88,"endTime":612.69,"body":"captivating, and was the first"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":608.88,"endTime":612.69,"body":"class in college that I was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":612.69,"endTime":616.17,"body":"like, wow, this is actually"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":612.69,"endTime":616.17,"body":"really frickin cool. You know,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":616.17,"endTime":620.16,"body":"it was so neat that you could"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":616.17,"endTime":620.16,"body":"find like patterns and data was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":620.16,"endTime":624.39,"body":"just archaeology missions that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":620.16,"endTime":624.39,"body":"had all this intrigue. And that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":624.39,"endTime":628.2,"body":"was the senior year of college,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":624.39,"endTime":628.2,"body":"graduated, kept playing in the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":628.2,"endTime":631.92,"body":"band, we were touring around the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":628.2,"endTime":631.92,"body":"Midwest, doing good enough that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":631.92,"endTime":635.28,"body":"I didn't have to work or do"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":631.92,"endTime":635.28,"body":"anything other than just drink"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":635.28,"endTime":636.63,"body":"on the weekends and get paid."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":636.69,"endTime":637.89,"body":"What was the name of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":636.69,"endTime":637.89,"body":"your band?"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":638.04,"endTime":639.15,"body":"It was called lie awake,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":639.27,"endTime":641.61,"body":"lie awake. Yeah. Nice."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":641.7,"endTime":644.43,"body":"So you know, doing that."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":641.7,"endTime":644.43,"body":"I was the first person in our"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":644.43,"endTime":647.85,"body":"family to go to college. Right."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":644.43,"endTime":647.85,"body":"And this was all thanks to my"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":647.85,"endTime":652.53,"body":"mother. So simultaneously, I had"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":647.85,"endTime":652.53,"body":"heard in the background being"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":652.53,"endTime":655.14,"body":"like, you gotta go to grad"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":652.53,"endTime":655.14,"body":"school, this band thing isn't"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":655.14,"endTime":657.63,"body":"gonna last forever, just"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":655.14,"endTime":657.63,"body":"ceaseless harassment."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":659.25,"endTime":660.96,"body":"That's a good band name"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":659.25,"endTime":660.96,"body":"right there."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":662.73,"endTime":669.0,"body":"two storey outhouse. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":662.73,"endTime":669.0,"body":"first of all, I had done nothing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":669.0,"endTime":671.58,"body":"to prepare myself to go to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":669.0,"endTime":671.58,"body":"graduate school, right? I have a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":671.58,"endTime":677.01,"body":"crappy 3.4 GPA or whatever. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":671.58,"endTime":677.01,"body":"literally nothing that I needed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":677.01,"endTime":680.31,"body":"to do at a gig the night before"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":677.01,"endTime":680.31,"body":"I took the GRE and was so"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":680.31,"endTime":684.87,"body":"hammered that night. I couldn't"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":680.31,"endTime":684.87,"body":"stay for like the advanced GRE"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":684.87,"endTime":687.33,"body":"part. I made it through the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":684.87,"endTime":687.33,"body":"first half and then just failed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":687.33,"endTime":690.87,"body":"because I was still hungover."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":687.33,"endTime":690.87,"body":"You guys can cut that out,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":690.93,"endTime":692.16,"body":"right? Oh, hell no,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":692.219,"endTime":692.999,"body":"it's in the promo."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":694.23,"endTime":698.37,"body":"So I called up Cal the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":694.23,"endTime":698.37,"body":"guy whose stat class I had, as a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":698.37,"endTime":700.89,"body":"senior is like, you know, I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":698.37,"endTime":700.89,"body":"really liked your class, what's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":700.89,"endTime":704.16,"body":"the next step? And he was like,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":700.89,"endTime":704.16,"body":"well, actually, over in the ed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":704.16,"endTime":707.64,"body":"psych department, they've got a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":704.16,"endTime":707.64,"body":"great group of psychometric"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":707.64,"endTime":711.54,"body":"folks there, my strategy was,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":707.64,"endTime":711.54,"body":"I'm going to just start taking"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":711.54,"endTime":714.27,"body":"classes. And I'm not going to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":711.54,"endTime":714.27,"body":"apply to the program, because I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":714.27,"endTime":717.69,"body":"have nothing in my record that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":714.27,"endTime":717.69,"body":"would make them be enamored with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":717.69,"endTime":721.44,"body":"me. But simultaneously, I didn't"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":717.69,"endTime":721.44,"body":"have so much competence that I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":721.44,"endTime":724.68,"body":"was going to be a different kind"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":721.44,"endTime":724.68,"body":"of student that I was as an"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":724.68,"endTime":728.61,"body":"undergrad. So I started taking"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":724.68,"endTime":728.61,"body":"classes and eventually just got"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":728.61,"endTime":730.77,"body":"to the point where they're like,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":728.61,"endTime":730.77,"body":"Look, you can't take any more"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":730.77,"endTime":734.67,"body":"classes, you got to apply to the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":730.77,"endTime":734.67,"body":"program. And I had done fine."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":734.67,"endTime":736.86,"body":"And all the classes at that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":734.67,"endTime":736.86,"body":"point, it's sort of turning the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":736.86,"endTime":742.95,"body":"ship around, and so went and got"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":736.86,"endTime":742.95,"body":"my master's, and was dipping the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":742.95,"endTime":745.71,"body":"toe in the water and was like,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":742.95,"endTime":745.71,"body":"alright, well, I'm gonna go for"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":745.71,"endTime":749.28,"body":"the PhD. This is fun playing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":745.71,"endTime":749.28,"body":"gigs on the weekend making money"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":749.28,"endTime":753.0,"body":"I can do graduate school during"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":749.28,"endTime":753.0,"body":"the week. So that's what I did"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":753.03,"endTime":758.25,"body":"my final year. I didn't know"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":753.03,"endTime":758.25,"body":"really what I wanted to do after"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":758.25,"endTime":762.03,"body":"that most of the folks in the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":758.25,"endTime":762.03,"body":"program went into industry"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":762.03,"endTime":765.03,"body":"testing companies and things"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":762.03,"endTime":765.03,"body":"like that. And there was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":765.03,"endTime":768.66,"body":"something about that, that just"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":765.03,"endTime":768.66,"body":"didn't seem super interesting."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":768.84,"endTime":771.54,"body":"So I was like, Well, I'll try a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":768.84,"endTime":771.54,"body":"fact if the gig doesn't work"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":771.54,"endTime":775.41,"body":"out, I can always hit the eject"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":771.54,"endTime":775.41,"body":"button and go back into"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":775.41,"endTime":780.45,"body":"industry. So I got my first job"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":775.41,"endTime":780.45,"body":"was at the University of Miami."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":780.48,"endTime":785.34,"body":"It was there for about four"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":780.48,"endTime":785.34,"body":"years. And then my advisor,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":785.37,"endTime":789.27,"body":"Nebraska, Debbie Bandoleros,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":785.37,"endTime":789.27,"body":"left. So I went back to Nebraska"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":789.27,"endTime":793.62,"body":"for a couple of years, then was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":789.27,"endTime":793.62,"body":"fortunate enough to get a gig at"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":793.62,"endTime":797.85,"body":"Arizona State where I was at for"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":793.62,"endTime":797.85,"body":"11 years working with a bunch of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":797.85,"endTime":801.48,"body":"my heroes from graduate school,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":797.85,"endTime":801.48,"body":"right. And that was just the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":801.48,"endTime":805.68,"body":"thrill of a lifetime. And so"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":801.48,"endTime":805.68,"body":"then I ventured out here for a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":805.68,"endTime":811.26,"body":"summer and rented an Airbnb and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":805.68,"endTime":811.26,"body":"Venice Beach. And it was like"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":811.29,"endTime":819.93,"body":"this is the coolest place. UCLA"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":811.29,"endTime":819.93,"body":"happened to have a open rank"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":819.93,"endTime":824.88,"body":"position and was fortunate"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":819.93,"endTime":824.88,"body":"enough to get an offer here and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":824.91,"endTime":827.01,"body":"decided to come hang out by the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":824.91,"endTime":827.01,"body":"beach."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":827.04,"endTime":832.5,"body":"So just another"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":827.04,"endTime":832.5,"body":"standard. Nebraska boy, rock"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":832.5,"endTime":836.91,"body":"star grads, formulaic way to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":832.5,"endTime":836.91,"body":"become a quantitative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":836.91,"endTime":838.38,"body":"methodologist. Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":838.53,"endTime":841.8,"body":"I will say I remember you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":838.53,"endTime":841.8,"body":"when you were a spiky gelled up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":841.8,"endTime":846.15,"body":"hair grad student working with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":841.8,"endTime":846.15,"body":"Debbie. And we were presenting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":846.15,"endTime":850.71,"body":"in the same session at the Ara"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":846.15,"endTime":850.71,"body":"conference in Seattle. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":850.74,"endTime":854.52,"body":"because it was in Seattle, my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":850.74,"endTime":854.52,"body":"grandmother was in the audience."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":854.55,"endTime":858.75,"body":"And she was 84 years old. At the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":854.55,"endTime":858.75,"body":"time, I had gotten up giving my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":858.75,"endTime":861.48,"body":"talk, I had acknowledged that my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":858.75,"endTime":861.48,"body":"grandmother was in the audience"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":861.48,"endTime":864.78,"body":"and you had the next"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":861.48,"endTime":864.78,"body":"presentation. And you got up and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":864.78,"endTime":869.1,"body":"you said, God, I hate following"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":864.78,"endTime":869.1,"body":"Greg and his grandmother is in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":869.1,"endTime":873.51,"body":"the army. The pressure is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":869.1,"endTime":873.51,"body":"insane. And it was so cute that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":873.51,"endTime":875.52,"body":"you would acknowledge my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":873.51,"endTime":875.52,"body":"grandmother, so I will"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":875.55,"endTime":877.5,"body":"never forget that was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":875.55,"endTime":877.5,"body":"insane pressure."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":877.65,"endTime":881.55,"body":"Now one of my early"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":877.65,"endTime":881.55,"body":"recollections. We were out at a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":881.55,"endTime":885.39,"body":"bar somewhere, but there were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":881.55,"endTime":885.39,"body":"three or four or five of us out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":885.42,"endTime":890.52,"body":"and you had ordered like a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":885.42,"endTime":890.52,"body":"whiskey neat. And you looked in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":890.52,"endTime":894.96,"body":"and there was a fly in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":890.52,"endTime":894.96,"body":"drink. And you were so polite,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":894.96,"endTime":898.53,"body":"and you called the waitress over"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":894.96,"endTime":898.53,"body":"and you said I am so sorry, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.56,"endTime":901.56,"body":"there's this fly in my drink."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.56,"endTime":901.56,"body":"Could I trouble you for another"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":901.56,"endTime":904.02,"body":"one, and the woman was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":901.56,"endTime":904.02,"body":"mortified. And she was like, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":904.02,"endTime":907.02,"body":"so sorry, I'm so sorry. And she"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":904.02,"endTime":907.02,"body":"went off, but it was really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":907.02,"endTime":910.2,"body":"busy. And we're sitting there in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":907.02,"endTime":910.2,"body":"the drinks on the table, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":910.2,"endTime":912.69,"body":"we're sitting there and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":910.2,"endTime":912.69,"body":"drinks on the table, and you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":912.69,"endTime":916.38,"body":"pick it up and you start kind of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":912.69,"endTime":916.38,"body":"angling it and taking little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":916.38,"endTime":924.21,"body":"sips kind of around the fly. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":916.38,"endTime":924.21,"body":"dangle it and flick it with your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":924.21,"endTime":928.59,"body":"finger and take another sip. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":924.21,"endTime":928.59,"body":"that's my first memory of you,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.59,"endTime":931.89,"body":"as you were perfectly fine just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.59,"endTime":931.89,"body":"to drink around the fly."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":932.64,"endTime":935.34,"body":"So it is at this point in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":932.64,"endTime":935.34,"body":"the conversation that I feel"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":935.34,"endTime":940.83,"body":"that we need to have Craig have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":935.34,"endTime":940.83,"body":"a callsign Oh, and so far, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.83,"endTime":944.49,"body":"have lie awake, obviously in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.83,"endTime":944.49,"body":"reference to his prior life."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":944.49,"endTime":948.57,"body":"Yeah, whiskey neat. Not bad. Oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":944.49,"endTime":948.57,"body":"I like that. And I don't know"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":948.57,"endTime":953.1,"body":"what to do with fly. Just say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":948.57,"endTime":953.1,"body":"the fly the fly. There we go. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.1,"endTime":956.46,"body":"the flight so your options are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.1,"endTime":956.46,"body":"lie awake, whiskey neat, and the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":956.46,"endTime":956.97,"body":"fly,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":957.24,"endTime":958.65,"body":"think you gotta go with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":957.24,"endTime":958.65,"body":"the fly."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.87,"endTime":967.38,"body":"Or you go winter boy, not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.87,"endTime":967.38,"body":"Sean and the flow. All right, at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":967.38,"endTime":969.51,"body":"some point, we should probably"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":967.38,"endTime":969.51,"body":"talk about missing data."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":969.54,"endTime":972.51,"body":"Patrick, you wanna get us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":969.54,"endTime":972.51,"body":"started? Talk to me, goose? No,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":972.0,"endTime":978.72,"body":"I was at a conference,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":972.0,"endTime":978.72,"body":"one of the ones that Penn stayed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":972.54,"endTime":972.9,"body":"no."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":978.72,"endTime":983.01,"body":"on the new methods for the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":978.72,"endTime":983.01,"body":"analysis of change. And I think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":983.01,"endTime":986.76,"body":"I was like a second year"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":983.01,"endTime":986.76,"body":"professor, I had been very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":986.76,"endTime":991.17,"body":"fortunate to be invited to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":986.76,"endTime":991.17,"body":"present. But John Graham and Joe"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":991.17,"endTime":994.95,"body":"Schaffer are in the audience,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":991.17,"endTime":994.95,"body":"Linda Collins, all of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":994.95,"endTime":999.33,"body":"people, and I get up and I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":994.95,"endTime":999.33,"body":"this sample of data I was using,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":999.36,"endTime":1003.29,"body":"and I did list wise deletion."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":999.36,"endTime":1003.29,"body":"And I still remember as I stood"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1003.29,"endTime":1006.89,"body":"up on the stage, and I paused"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1003.29,"endTime":1006.89,"body":"and I said, Hello, my name is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1006.89,"endTime":1012.05,"body":"Patrick, and I'm a list wise"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1006.89,"endTime":1012.05,"body":"Deleter. And everybody on cue"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1012.05,"endTime":1018.5,"body":"went welcome, Patrick."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1012.05,"endTime":1018.5,"body":"Phenomenal. So one thing I find"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1018.5,"endTime":1026.27,"body":"interesting is with your book"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1018.5,"endTime":1026.27,"body":"coming out in 2020, to 2002, was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1026.3,"endTime":1031.43,"body":"the very impactful Schaefer and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1026.3,"endTime":1031.43,"body":"gram view of the state of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1031.46,"endTime":1035.99,"body":"art of missing data. And I love"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1031.46,"endTime":1035.99,"body":"round numbers. I like even"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1035.99,"endTime":1037.7,"body":"things I like flat things,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1038.24,"endTime":1039.56,"body":"and shiny objects."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1041.45,"endTime":1047.69,"body":"And a 20 year updating"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1041.45,"endTime":1047.69,"body":"on what we see as state of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1047.69,"endTime":1052.01,"body":"art, I think, is a really nice"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1047.69,"endTime":1052.01,"body":"balance with your second edition"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1052.01,"endTime":1056.15,"body":"of your book coming out, what is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1052.01,"endTime":1056.15,"body":"the new state of the art because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1056.15,"endTime":1060.35,"body":"if you think about what was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1056.15,"endTime":1060.35,"body":"state of the art in 2002, I was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1060.35,"endTime":1063.71,"body":"thinking about this a little bit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1060.35,"endTime":1063.71,"body":"last night, the iPhone was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1063.71,"endTime":1069.08,"body":"introduced in 2007. Wow, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1063.71,"endTime":1069.08,"body":"looked up what was the top"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.08,"endTime":1075.56,"body":"selling phone in 2002, there was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.08,"endTime":1075.56,"body":"a Nokia and then a Motorola flip"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1075.56,"endTime":1078.92,"body":"phone. Now, through this special"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1075.56,"endTime":1078.92,"body":"TV offer, you can receive a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1078.92,"endTime":1081.8,"body":"Motorola flip phone with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1078.92,"endTime":1081.8,"body":"cellular service for just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1081.8,"endTime":1087.32,"body":"pennies a day. In a way now,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1081.8,"endTime":1087.32,"body":"it's not undermining Shaffer,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1087.32,"endTime":1090.62,"body":"and Graham at all. That was a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1087.32,"endTime":1090.62,"body":"profoundly important paper, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1090.62,"endTime":1096.35,"body":"it's kind of the Motorola flip"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1090.62,"endTime":1096.35,"body":"phone of our view of missing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1096.35,"endTime":1102.98,"body":"data. So why don't you be the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1096.35,"endTime":1102.98,"body":"iPhone 14? What is the new state"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.98,"endTime":1105.11,"body":"of the art in missing data?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.98,"endTime":1105.11,"body":"Well,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1105.139,"endTime":1109.669,"body":"first, let me defend the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1105.139,"endTime":1109.669,"body":"flip phone. You can still buy"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1109.669,"endTime":1112.789,"body":"those and they're fantastic"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1109.669,"endTime":1112.789,"body":"devices. That paper is most"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1112.789,"endTime":1116.899,"body":"highly cited paper. And it's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1112.789,"endTime":1116.899,"body":"like methods by a longshot. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1116.899,"endTime":1120.439,"body":"I think it's still really like a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1116.899,"endTime":1120.439,"body":"must read for anybody who wants"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1120.439,"endTime":1124.189,"body":"to get into missing data stuff."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1120.439,"endTime":1124.189,"body":"So much of what they talk about"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1124.219,"endTime":1128.899,"body":"in there is still sort of our"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1124.219,"endTime":1128.899,"body":"daily driver methods that we use"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1128.899,"endTime":1132.949,"body":"right simile, or multiple"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1128.899,"endTime":1132.949,"body":"imputation. Those are still"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1132.949,"endTime":1137.719,"body":"solid go to methods. So yeah,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1132.949,"endTime":1137.719,"body":"I'll tell you what I'm enamored"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1137.719,"endTime":1140.629,"body":"with. And that I think, is the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1137.719,"endTime":1140.629,"body":"new state of the art. It"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1140.629,"endTime":1146.509,"body":"actually dates back to that same"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1140.629,"endTime":1146.509,"body":"period, late 90s, early 2000s,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1146.509,"endTime":1150.259,"body":"there was a group of papers by"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1146.509,"endTime":1150.259,"body":"this guy, Joseph Abraham and a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1150.259,"endTime":1156.379,"body":"couple of his colleagues, and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1150.259,"endTime":1156.379,"body":"they sat dormant for 15 1617"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1156.409,"endTime":1160.579,"body":"years, and he laid out a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1156.409,"endTime":1160.579,"body":"different way to approach"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1160.579,"endTime":1163.579,"body":"missing data handling. So you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1160.579,"endTime":1163.579,"body":"know, most of the methods that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1163.579,"endTime":1167.809,"body":"were predominant at that time"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1163.579,"endTime":1167.809,"body":"are centered around applying a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1167.809,"endTime":1171.349,"body":"multivariate distribution to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1167.809,"endTime":1171.349,"body":"missing data, right. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1171.349,"endTime":1175.159,"body":"multivariate normal being the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1171.349,"endTime":1175.159,"body":"typical one. And Abraham's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1175.159,"endTime":1179.479,"body":"approach, let's call it factored"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1175.159,"endTime":1179.479,"body":"regression specification. So his"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1179.479,"endTime":1183.499,"body":"idea was to take this joint"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1179.479,"endTime":1183.499,"body":"distribution, this multivariate"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1183.499,"endTime":1188.479,"body":"distribution and factorize it"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1183.499,"endTime":1188.479,"body":"into the product of a bunch of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1188.479,"endTime":1191.779,"body":"univariate distributions. So in"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1188.479,"endTime":1191.779,"body":"the simplest case, let's say"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1191.779,"endTime":1195.709,"body":"you've got x and y, and we could"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1191.779,"endTime":1195.709,"body":"model that with a bivariate"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1195.739,"endTime":1199.969,"body":"normal distribution. So his"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1195.739,"endTime":1199.969,"body":"approach is to break that up."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1199.999,"endTime":1204.679,"body":"into a product where it's y"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1199.999,"endTime":1204.679,"body":"conditional on x, just a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1204.889,"endTime":1209.659,"body":"regression model multiplied by"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1204.889,"endTime":1209.659,"body":"just a marginal distribution for"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1209.689,"endTime":1214.819,"body":"X. So if we had three variables,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1209.689,"endTime":1214.819,"body":"let's say y x 1x, two, we'd have"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1214.849,"endTime":1220.399,"body":"y given x one and x two, then"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1214.849,"endTime":1220.399,"body":"we'd have x one given x two, and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1220.399,"endTime":1225.319,"body":"then a distribution for X two."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1220.399,"endTime":1225.319,"body":"And so the really cool thing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1225.319,"endTime":1229.639,"body":"about that factorization"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1225.319,"endTime":1229.639,"body":"approach is each of those"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1229.669,"endTime":1233.359,"body":"regression models can be of a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1229.669,"endTime":1233.359,"body":"different ilk, essentially,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1233.359,"endTime":1236.269,"body":"right, we could have one of them"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1233.359,"endTime":1236.269,"body":"via linear regression and other"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1236.269,"endTime":1239.629,"body":"be a logistic regression. One"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1236.269,"endTime":1239.629,"body":"could be account model, it could"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1239.629,"endTime":1243.499,"body":"be anything. So his approach was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1239.629,"endTime":1243.499,"body":"to say there is a joint"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1243.499,"endTime":1246.469,"body":"distribution, but we don't have"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1243.499,"endTime":1246.469,"body":"to model it, we don't have to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1246.469,"endTime":1249.919,"body":"say what it is, we're going to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1246.469,"endTime":1249.919,"body":"just model the individual"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1249.949,"endTime":1253.399,"body":"factors on the right side of the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1249.949,"endTime":1253.399,"body":"expression, each of which is a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1253.399,"endTime":1258.409,"body":"univariate regression model. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1253.399,"endTime":1258.409,"body":"that opens the door to all sorts"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1258.409,"endTime":1262.849,"body":"of things that we can't do well"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1258.409,"endTime":1262.849,"body":"with, say a multivariate normal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1262.849,"endTime":1267.229,"body":"models to stuff like interaction"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1262.849,"endTime":1267.229,"body":"effects with incomplete data,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1267.259,"endTime":1271.459,"body":"you know, those are very much at"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1267.259,"endTime":1271.459,"body":"odds with a normal distribution,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1271.489,"endTime":1276.469,"body":"or random slopes and a multi"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1271.489,"endTime":1276.469,"body":"level model are curvilinear"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1276.469,"endTime":1280.099,"body":"effects, or mixtures of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1276.469,"endTime":1280.099,"body":"categorical and continuous"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1280.099,"endTime":1283.939,"body":"things, those individual models"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1280.099,"endTime":1283.939,"body":"could be really just about"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1283.939,"endTime":1287.959,"body":"anything, they come together"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1283.939,"endTime":1287.959,"body":"into a joint distribution that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1287.959,"endTime":1291.349,"body":"you sort of acknowledge exists,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1287.959,"endTime":1291.349,"body":"but you never have to model it"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1291.409,"endTime":1292.759,"body":"formally or explicitly."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1293.15,"endTime":1297.08,"body":"May I ask two questions?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1293.15,"endTime":1297.08,"body":"Yeah. Fireworks. One is, can you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1297.08,"endTime":1299.57,"body":"stop the birds from singing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1297.08,"endTime":1299.57,"body":"behind you? Because you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1299.57,"endTime":1304.16,"body":"writing a damn Disney cartoon?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1299.57,"endTime":1304.16,"body":"Okay, thank you thing, too, is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1304.19,"endTime":1307.58,"body":"you describe the factorization."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1304.19,"endTime":1307.58,"body":"And you did it in a particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1307.61,"endTime":1311.3,"body":"order. Is there any role that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1307.61,"endTime":1311.3,"body":"the order of the factorization"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1311.3,"endTime":1312.05,"body":"plays in this,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1312.08,"endTime":1315.35,"body":"the key I guess, is that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1312.08,"endTime":1315.35,"body":"you want one of the terms to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1315.35,"endTime":1319.88,"body":"correspond to your vocal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1315.35,"endTime":1319.88,"body":"analysis, right. So like y given"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1319.88,"endTime":1324.08,"body":"x one and x two, that's my vocal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1319.88,"endTime":1324.08,"body":"model. And then the rest of the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1324.08,"endTime":1327.38,"body":"models we could think of as"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1324.08,"endTime":1327.38,"body":"essentially nuisance models a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1327.38,"endTime":1330.23,"body":"way to deal with, you know, in a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1327.38,"endTime":1330.23,"body":"regression model, incomplete"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1330.23,"endTime":1333.35,"body":"covariates that might have"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1330.23,"endTime":1333.35,"body":"different metrics, or maybe be"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1333.35,"endTime":1336.08,"body":"non linearly related to one"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1333.35,"endTime":1336.08,"body":"another. So yeah, there's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1336.08,"endTime":1339.74,"body":"different orderings. But it"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1336.08,"endTime":1339.74,"body":"makes sense to go from least"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1339.74,"endTime":1343.85,"body":"amount of missing data first,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1339.74,"endTime":1343.85,"body":"like make those last pieces in"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1343.85,"endTime":1347.24,"body":"the factorization, because if a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1343.85,"endTime":1347.24,"body":"variable is complete, you could"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1347.27,"endTime":1350.99,"body":"drop that model completely. A"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1347.27,"endTime":1350.99,"body":"dysfunctions is the constant"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1350.99,"endTime":1354.59,"body":"essentially, right. And so it"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1350.99,"endTime":1354.59,"body":"would be one less model that you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1354.59,"endTime":1357.95,"body":"have to estimate in this chain"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1354.59,"endTime":1357.95,"body":"of stuff that you're dealing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1357.95,"endTime":1362.69,"body":"with, and maybe categorical"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1357.95,"endTime":1362.69,"body":"variables first, ordered by sort"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1362.69,"endTime":1365.87,"body":"of least to most amount of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1362.69,"endTime":1365.87,"body":"missing data followed by"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1365.87,"endTime":1369.26,"body":"continuous variables in the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1365.87,"endTime":1369.26,"body":"factorization. Those are, I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1369.26,"endTime":1372.2,"body":"think, more practical"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1369.26,"endTime":1372.2,"body":"recommendations, I guess, just"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1372.2,"endTime":1372.8,"body":"to place"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1372.8,"endTime":1375.83,"body":"it in a broader"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1372.8,"endTime":1375.83,"body":"context, would that still be of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1375.83,"endTime":1379.67,"body":"use when you have complete data?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1375.83,"endTime":1379.67,"body":"Because if you have this very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1379.67,"endTime":1382.82,"body":"complicated multivariate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1379.67,"endTime":1382.82,"body":"distribution that you can't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1382.82,"endTime":1387.59,"body":"express in some closed form, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1382.82,"endTime":1387.59,"body":"can build it with a combination"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1387.59,"endTime":1390.53,"body":"of these individual ones? It"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1387.59,"endTime":1390.53,"body":"seems like that could be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1390.53,"endTime":1393.2,"body":"beneficial even when you have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1390.53,"endTime":1393.2,"body":"complete data. I think"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1393.2,"endTime":1396.83,"body":"it depends on the model"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1393.2,"endTime":1396.83,"body":"for a regression model. I don't"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1396.83,"endTime":1400.43,"body":"think that there's any benefit"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1396.83,"endTime":1400.43,"body":"to that. But I think, you know,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1400.43,"endTime":1404.15,"body":"applying that logic to a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1400.43,"endTime":1404.15,"body":"structural equation model with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1404.15,"endTime":1407.39,"body":"complete data allows you to do"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1404.15,"endTime":1407.39,"body":"some really interesting things."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1407.39,"endTime":1411.02,"body":"Because that framework, the way"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1407.39,"endTime":1411.02,"body":"that latent variables are viewed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1411.02,"endTime":1416.03,"body":"are just as missing data. So the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1411.02,"endTime":1416.03,"body":"latent variables essentially get"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1416.06,"endTime":1420.74,"body":"imputed along the way. And that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1416.06,"endTime":1420.74,"body":"factorization applies, like"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1420.74,"endTime":1424.19,"body":"latent variable model allows you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1420.74,"endTime":1424.19,"body":"to do all sorts of things like"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1424.19,"endTime":1427.67,"body":"an interaction between a latent"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1424.19,"endTime":1427.67,"body":"variable and a nominal variable"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1427.67,"endTime":1431.45,"body":"is the easiest thing in the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1427.67,"endTime":1431.45,"body":"world to do in that framework,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1431.48,"endTime":1434.33,"body":"you know, or some of the stuff"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1431.48,"endTime":1434.33,"body":"that you work on Patrick, with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1434.33,"endTime":1438.35,"body":"the nonlinear factor models with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1434.33,"endTime":1438.35,"body":"those complicated constraints,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1438.38,"endTime":1441.92,"body":"you can do that really easily in"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1438.38,"endTime":1441.92,"body":"that framework without any of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1441.92,"endTime":1445.22,"body":"the constraints just let the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1441.92,"endTime":1445.22,"body":"grouping variable or whatever"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1445.22,"endTime":1447.65,"body":"the background variable is"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1445.22,"endTime":1447.65,"body":"interact with the latent"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1447.65,"endTime":1450.2,"body":"variable. And so I think are"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1447.65,"endTime":1450.2,"body":"latent variable models that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1450.2,"endTime":1453.62,"body":"raises some really interesting"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1450.2,"endTime":1453.62,"body":"avenues that we don't"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1453.62,"endTime":1456.98,"body":"necessarily have at our disposal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1453.62,"endTime":1456.98,"body":"when we're attacking things from"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1457.01,"endTime":1459.23,"body":"from sort of a normal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1457.01,"endTime":1459.23,"body":"distribution perspective."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1459.33,"endTime":1463.95,"body":"FIML was the default in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1459.33,"endTime":1463.95,"body":"everything at this point. And MI"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1463.95,"endTime":1467.52,"body":"you have to work harder for but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1463.95,"endTime":1467.52,"body":"it's still pretty broadly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1467.52,"endTime":1470.37,"body":"available. How would you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1467.52,"endTime":1470.37,"body":"approach a factored regression"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1470.37,"endTime":1470.91,"body":"approach"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1470.97,"endTime":1474.66,"body":"the last six or seven"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1470.97,"endTime":1474.66,"body":"years of head grants from ies"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1474.66,"endTime":1479.07,"body":"and we built we being myself and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1474.66,"endTime":1479.07,"body":"former grad student brand Keller"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1479.1,"endTime":1483.3,"body":"have built a software package"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1479.1,"endTime":1483.3,"body":"blimp that started off as sort"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1483.3,"endTime":1488.52,"body":"of a modest multi level"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1483.3,"endTime":1488.52,"body":"imputation program and the first"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1488.52,"endTime":1492.63,"body":"grant and the second grant was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1488.52,"endTime":1492.63,"body":"really to expand it to allow for"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1492.66,"endTime":1496.26,"body":"missing not at random models and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1492.66,"endTime":1496.26,"body":"those models require two"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1496.26,"endTime":1500.28,"body":"equations. You've got your vocal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1496.26,"endTime":1500.28,"body":"regression. Let's say some Multi"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1500.28,"endTime":1503.46,"body":"Level model and then you've got"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1500.28,"endTime":1503.46,"body":"the missingness model. And we"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1503.46,"endTime":1506.94,"body":"sort of realized along the way"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1503.46,"endTime":1506.94,"body":"that if we can estimate two"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1506.94,"endTime":1510.27,"body":"equations in this framework, we"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1506.94,"endTime":1510.27,"body":"can estimate 50 equations,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1510.3,"endTime":1514.44,"body":"right. So it sort of went from"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1510.3,"endTime":1514.44,"body":"barely basic start to just sort"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1514.44,"endTime":1518.97,"body":"of blowing it up into a full"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1514.44,"endTime":1518.97,"body":"multi level latent variable"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1519.0,"endTime":1522.51,"body":"modeling package that handles"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1519.0,"endTime":1522.51,"body":"all sorts of different types of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1522.51,"endTime":1526.68,"body":"variables, categorical"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1522.51,"endTime":1526.68,"body":"continuous count variables. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1526.68,"endTime":1530.73,"body":"our goal was to put this"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1526.68,"endTime":1530.73,"body":"powerful, flexible stuff into a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1530.73,"endTime":1534.51,"body":"package that anybody can open up"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1530.73,"endTime":1534.51,"body":"in the US without deep level"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1534.51,"endTime":1538.32,"body":"knowledge about what was going"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1534.51,"endTime":1538.32,"body":"on under the hood in so my"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1538.32,"endTime":1542.46,"body":"website applied missing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1538.32,"endTime":1542.46,"body":"data.com/blimp got an app up"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1542.46,"endTime":1546.78,"body":"there for Windows and Mac, and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1542.46,"endTime":1546.78,"body":"Linux does all sorts of latent"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1546.78,"endTime":1550.44,"body":"variable multi level modeling"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1546.78,"endTime":1550.44,"body":"stuff all within this factored"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1550.44,"endTime":1552.69,"body":"regression specification"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1550.44,"endTime":1552.69,"body":"approach."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1552.75,"endTime":1556.29,"body":"So I got on Netscape and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1552.75,"endTime":1556.29,"body":"when to Ask Jeeves to try to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1556.29,"endTime":1558.3,"body":"find your website, but I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1556.29,"endTime":1558.3,"body":"couldn't. Could you tell me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1558.3,"endTime":1559.35,"body":"again what it was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1561.09,"endTime":1562.62,"body":"WWW.appliedmissingdata.com."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1563.58,"endTime":1566.97,"body":"Okay, maybe I should"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1563.58,"endTime":1566.97,"body":"upgrade my 2002 technology. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1566.97,"endTime":1570.21,"body":"you mentioned blimp, I'd like to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1566.97,"endTime":1570.21,"body":"try to make a connection between"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1570.24,"endTime":1573.24,"body":"the software blimp and the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1570.24,"endTime":1573.24,"body":"second edition of your book that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1573.24,"endTime":1577.44,"body":"just came out this summer. That"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1573.24,"endTime":1577.44,"body":"was better than Top Gun, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1577.44,"endTime":1580.71,"body":"second edition of applied"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1577.44,"endTime":1580.71,"body":"missing data analysis. What I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1580.71,"endTime":1584.34,"body":"will say just to start off,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1580.71,"endTime":1584.34,"body":"though, is a lot of second"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1584.34,"endTime":1588.39,"body":"editions really are like a lot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1584.34,"endTime":1588.39,"body":"of sequels to movies, where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1588.39,"endTime":1591.03,"body":"there's some updates to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1588.39,"endTime":1591.03,"body":"References, maybe some new"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1591.03,"endTime":1594.06,"body":"graphics, and all of that. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1591.03,"endTime":1594.06,"body":"tada, it's a second edition. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1594.06,"endTime":1596.01,"body":"part of that is fed by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1594.06,"endTime":1596.01,"body":"publishers who are always"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1596.01,"endTime":1600.21,"body":"pushing you to get out a fresh"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1596.01,"endTime":1600.21,"body":"edition. But I will say you took"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1600.21,"endTime":1604.02,"body":"this top to bottom and redid it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1600.21,"endTime":1604.02,"body":"And I had the pleasure of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1604.05,"endTime":1607.02,"body":"already going through this book."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1604.05,"endTime":1607.02,"body":"Can you tell us the role that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1607.02,"endTime":1609.54,"body":"blimp plays in the second"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1607.02,"endTime":1609.54,"body":"edition? And then just more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1609.54,"endTime":1611.58,"body":"broadly, about the second"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1609.54,"endTime":1611.58,"body":"edition?"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1611.97,"endTime":1614.82,"body":"Yeah, you're right. It"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1611.97,"endTime":1614.82,"body":"was a complete overhaul, I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1614.82,"endTime":1618.87,"body":"literally deleted everything and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1614.82,"endTime":1618.87,"body":"started over part of that, you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1618.87,"endTime":1622.02,"body":"know, as you guys know, from"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1618.87,"endTime":1622.02,"body":"teaching many, many workshops,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1622.02,"endTime":1626.04,"body":"you just find a better way to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1622.02,"endTime":1626.04,"body":"explain things over time, right."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1626.04,"endTime":1628.98,"body":"And so it felt like I could do a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1626.04,"endTime":1628.98,"body":"much better job explaining this"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1628.98,"endTime":1632.37,"body":"stuff 10 years later. So that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1628.98,"endTime":1632.37,"body":"was part of the impetus. You"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1632.37,"endTime":1635.37,"body":"know, and certainly blimp plays"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1632.37,"endTime":1635.37,"body":"a central role, though the book"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1635.37,"endTime":1638.91,"body":"is software agnostic, I don't"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1635.37,"endTime":1638.91,"body":"really mention any programs by"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1638.91,"endTime":1642.93,"body":"name in the book. But certainly"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1638.91,"endTime":1642.93,"body":"it plays a big role throughout"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1642.93,"endTime":1646.11,"body":"all of the base stuff and all of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1642.93,"endTime":1646.11,"body":"the multiple imputation stuff."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1646.14,"endTime":1650.1,"body":"That's what I was using for all"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1646.14,"endTime":1650.1,"body":"of the examples. But I think the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1650.1,"endTime":1654.42,"body":"thread that goes across all of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1650.1,"endTime":1654.42,"body":"the chapters is the factored"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1654.42,"endTime":1659.37,"body":"regression piece. So those"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1654.42,"endTime":1659.37,"body":"models are available for demo as"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1659.37,"endTime":1664.35,"body":"well. Actually, in much sort of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1659.37,"endTime":1664.35,"body":"simpler rudimentary form, I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1664.35,"endTime":1668.7,"body":"would say at this point, m plus"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1664.35,"endTime":1668.7,"body":"does a few things that fall into"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1668.7,"endTime":1672.42,"body":"that factored regression"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1668.7,"endTime":1672.42,"body":"heading, there's a package in R"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1672.45,"endTime":1676.11,"body":"MDMB that does factored"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1672.45,"endTime":1676.11,"body":"regressions for really just"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1676.11,"endTime":1679.53,"body":"regression models. So there's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1676.11,"endTime":1679.53,"body":"some backward regression stuff"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1679.56,"endTime":1682.71,"body":"on the thermal side. But that I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1679.56,"endTime":1682.71,"body":"think, is sort of the thread"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1682.71,"endTime":1686.37,"body":"that goes throughout the book is"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1682.71,"endTime":1686.37,"body":"tying in all the new"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1686.37,"endTime":1689.85,"body":"developments in that space. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1686.37,"endTime":1689.85,"body":"so part of just starting from"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1689.85,"endTime":1693.45,"body":"scratch was I want to get rid of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1689.85,"endTime":1693.45,"body":"some of these cringe worthy"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1693.45,"endTime":1696.81,"body":"explanations that I gave in"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1693.45,"endTime":1696.81,"body":"2010. But then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1697.59,"endTime":1700.26,"body":"the ones that I use in my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1697.59,"endTime":1700.26,"body":"classes right now is that those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1700.26,"endTime":1701.64,"body":"ones Awesome, thanks,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1701.67,"endTime":1703.53,"body":"unicorn and the talking"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1701.67,"endTime":1703.53,"body":"narwhal."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1706.4,"endTime":1707.39,"body":"Very nice."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1708.74,"endTime":1711.11,"body":"But you know, as I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1708.74,"endTime":1711.11,"body":"started to sit down, I pulled up"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1711.11,"endTime":1714.29,"body":"all the Word documents from the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1711.11,"endTime":1714.29,"body":"old chapters. And I just became"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1714.29,"endTime":1718.13,"body":"really apparent quickly that to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1714.29,"endTime":1718.13,"body":"shoehorn in all of this new"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1718.13,"endTime":1721.88,"body":"stuff, it would feel like really"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1718.13,"endTime":1721.88,"body":"disjointed and a bit nonlinear"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1721.88,"endTime":1724.61,"body":"maybe. And so it just seemed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1721.88,"endTime":1724.61,"body":"like a better idea to hit the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1724.61,"endTime":1725.99,"body":"delete button and start over."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1726.02,"endTime":1729.14,"body":"Wow, I experience a very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1726.02,"endTime":1729.14,"body":"small version of this just every"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1729.14,"endTime":1732.23,"body":"year when I go to teach a class"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1729.14,"endTime":1732.23,"body":"that I've taught before. In my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1732.23,"endTime":1735.68,"body":"head, I might have evolved and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1732.23,"endTime":1735.68,"body":"matured in the way that I want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1735.68,"endTime":1738.62,"body":"to explain things are the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1735.68,"endTime":1738.62,"body":"materials that are crafted again"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1738.65,"endTime":1743.63,"body":"in my head that I could use, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1738.65,"endTime":1743.63,"body":"it's so easy to go grab the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1743.63,"endTime":1748.07,"body":"folder, grab the PowerPoints, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1743.63,"endTime":1748.07,"body":"whatever it is. So I really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1748.07,"endTime":1750.38,"body":"think that you should be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1748.07,"endTime":1750.38,"body":"commended on that that was a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1750.38,"endTime":1751.16,"body":"brave thing to do."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1751.28,"endTime":1754.16,"body":"And not only that is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1751.28,"endTime":1754.16,"body":"it's one thing to do away with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1754.16,"endTime":1757.28,"body":"the talking norwall, which now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1754.16,"endTime":1757.28,"body":"that's all I'm going to be able"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1757.28,"endTime":1760.49,"body":"to see for the rest of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1757.28,"endTime":1760.49,"body":"afternoon. But Craig, let me ask"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1760.49,"endTime":1764.0,"body":"you this. Was that really just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1760.49,"endTime":1764.0,"body":"how you wanted to tell the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1764.0,"endTime":1769.22,"body":"story? Or do we as a field need"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1764.0,"endTime":1769.22,"body":"to think about a rewrite on how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1769.22,"endTime":1773.42,"body":"we think about missing data? So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1769.22,"endTime":1773.42,"body":"one thing that drives me insane"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1773.42,"endTime":1777.65,"body":"when I review articles is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1773.42,"endTime":1777.65,"body":"someone will say we use full"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1777.65,"endTime":1781.19,"body":"information, maximum likelihood"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1777.65,"endTime":1781.19,"body":"and thus missing data or not a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1781.19,"endTime":1784.97,"body":"problem. Yeah, and I have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1781.19,"endTime":1784.97,"body":"rubber stamp in my drawer that I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.97,"endTime":1790.58,"body":"pull out and have a brief"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.97,"endTime":1790.58,"body":"paragraph about how it's under"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.58,"endTime":1793.94,"body":"assumptions and that the authors"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.58,"endTime":1793.94,"body":"need to describe the missing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1793.94,"endTime":1798.86,"body":"data and things like that. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1793.94,"endTime":1798.86,"body":"is it hyperbolic to say that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1798.86,"endTime":1803.12,"body":"have come a remark probably long"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1798.86,"endTime":1803.12,"body":"way from mean imputation and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1803.12,"endTime":1807.44,"body":"last value forward to endless"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1803.12,"endTime":1807.44,"body":"strides deletion to PHYML and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1807.44,"endTime":1812.0,"body":"multiple imputation. But do we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1807.44,"endTime":1812.0,"body":"need as a field to think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1812.03,"endTime":1815.51,"body":"updating how we approach missing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1812.03,"endTime":1815.51,"body":"data? Yeah, great"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1815.51,"endTime":1819.05,"body":"question, I still find"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1815.51,"endTime":1819.05,"body":"great value in the flip phone,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1819.05,"endTime":1823.91,"body":"actually, the way that I was"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1819.05,"endTime":1823.91,"body":"seeing this is we've got these,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1823.94,"endTime":1827.42,"body":"let's call them classic"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1823.94,"endTime":1827.42,"body":"approaches based on a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1827.42,"endTime":1830.84,"body":"multivariate distribution. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1827.42,"endTime":1830.84,"body":"those things are still insanely"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1830.84,"endTime":1836.33,"body":"useful and easy to use. And we"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1830.84,"endTime":1836.33,"body":"know a lot about them. And we've"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1836.36,"endTime":1841.13,"body":"got these really sexy, new"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1836.36,"endTime":1841.13,"body":"approaches that let us model"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1841.13,"endTime":1845.15,"body":"combinations of weird variable"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1841.13,"endTime":1845.15,"body":"types that don't plug into a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1845.18,"endTime":1848.45,"body":"multivariate normal model. But"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1845.18,"endTime":1848.45,"body":"you know, those old methods"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1848.45,"endTime":1851.78,"body":"still don't behave that much"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1848.45,"endTime":1851.78,"body":"differently than the newer"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1851.78,"endTime":1855.83,"body":"sexier ones, in a lot of cases."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1851.78,"endTime":1855.83,"body":"And so I don't think it's a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1855.83,"endTime":1859.28,"body":"situation where we should"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1855.83,"endTime":1859.28,"body":"abandon these classic methods, I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1859.28,"endTime":1862.46,"body":"think they're still"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1859.28,"endTime":1862.46,"body":"extraordinarily useful and do"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1862.46,"endTime":1866.36,"body":"surprisingly well, in a lot of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1862.46,"endTime":1866.36,"body":"cases where you wouldn't think"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1866.36,"endTime":1869.6,"body":"that they would do well. So I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1866.36,"endTime":1869.6,"body":"sort of see these things as"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1869.6,"endTime":1873.59,"body":"complementary tools in our tool"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1869.6,"endTime":1873.59,"body":"belt, rather than, you know,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1873.71,"endTime":1876.53,"body":"let's wipe the slate clean and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1873.71,"endTime":1876.53,"body":"do away with these older"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1876.53,"endTime":1877.13,"body":"approaches."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1877.159,"endTime":1879.739,"body":"So if you get that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1877.159,"endTime":1879.739,"body":"manuscript that says that it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1879.739,"endTime":1883.549,"body":"used PHYML, you're not pulling"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1879.739,"endTime":1883.549,"body":"out the rubber stamp necessarily"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1883.549,"endTime":1887.359,"body":"to say that time has passed, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1883.549,"endTime":1887.359,"body":"you just want to know that it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1887.359,"endTime":1888.889,"body":"used under appropriate"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1887.359,"endTime":1888.889,"body":"conditions."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1888.919,"endTime":1892.669,"body":"Yeah, exactly. I think"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1888.919,"endTime":1892.669,"body":"there's things that thermal does"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1892.699,"endTime":1895.999,"body":"really well. And then there's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1892.699,"endTime":1895.999,"body":"things that bimmel does pretty"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1895.999,"endTime":1899.359,"body":"terribly where you're going to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1895.999,"endTime":1899.359,"body":"expect to see some bias. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1899.359,"endTime":1900.289,"body":"yeah, I agree with that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1900.35,"endTime":1902.45,"body":"What are those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1900.35,"endTime":1902.45,"body":"situations where it does"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1902.45,"endTime":1903.02,"body":"terribly,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1903.05,"endTime":1905.78,"body":"you know, I think"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1903.05,"endTime":1905.78,"body":"anything with a non linearity in"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1905.78,"endTime":1910.7,"body":"it and interaction term, or"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1905.78,"endTime":1910.7,"body":"curvilinear effect, or a multi"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1910.7,"endTime":1914.45,"body":"level model, perhaps with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1910.7,"endTime":1914.45,"body":"incomplete covariates, it's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1914.45,"endTime":1917.3,"body":"really the covariates that are"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1914.45,"endTime":1917.3,"body":"the problem, the predictors,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1917.3,"endTime":1920.48,"body":"that things on the right side of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1917.3,"endTime":1920.48,"body":"the equation, when those go"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1920.48,"endTime":1924.62,"body":"incomplete, that's where you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1920.48,"endTime":1924.62,"body":"have to be really careful, if"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1924.62,"endTime":1927.23,"body":"you've got an incomplete"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1924.62,"endTime":1927.23,"body":"predictor, let's say it's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1927.26,"endTime":1930.83,"body":"exerting a random slope and a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1927.26,"endTime":1930.83,"body":"multi level model, or let's say"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1930.83,"endTime":1934.55,"body":"that it's part of an interaction"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1930.83,"endTime":1934.55,"body":"of fact, when you go to impute"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1934.55,"endTime":1937.52,"body":"that variable, B, it them all"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1934.55,"endTime":1937.52,"body":"sort of implicitly, you know,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1937.52,"endTime":1941.57,"body":"imputes, the data or Bayes or"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1937.52,"endTime":1941.57,"body":"whatever that variables"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1941.57,"endTime":1945.62,"body":"distribution is heteroskedastic."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1941.57,"endTime":1945.62,"body":"And so you have to be able to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1945.65,"endTime":1950.45,"body":"model that feature of data. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1945.65,"endTime":1950.45,"body":"so a lot of software packages"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1950.45,"endTime":1954.47,"body":"will gladly give you an answer"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1950.45,"endTime":1954.47,"body":"when you use them all. But we"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1954.47,"endTime":1958.31,"body":"know from analytic work, and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1954.47,"endTime":1958.31,"body":"also computer simulations, that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1958.34,"endTime":1961.61,"body":"my results might not be so great"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1958.34,"endTime":1961.61,"body":"on the back end. So that would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1961.61,"endTime":1964.22,"body":"put you in the danger"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1961.61,"endTime":1964.22,"body":"zone."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1969.11,"endTime":1971.03,"body":"Correct. You're good?"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":1969.11,"endTime":1971.03,"body":"Yeah. Boy."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1972.11,"endTime":1979.07,"body":"Did I take your breath"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1972.11,"endTime":1979.07,"body":"away, Patrick? All right,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1979.1,"endTime":1983.3,"body":"I'm going to edit this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1979.1,"endTime":1983.3,"body":"episode. We're gonna be gone"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1983.36,"endTime":1986.84,"body":"negative Ghostrider. The pattern"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1983.36,"endTime":1986.84,"body":"is both. Okay, I was gonna say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1986.87,"endTime":1990.56,"body":"one more, you know, what I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1986.87,"endTime":1990.56,"body":"gonna do just to get in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1990.56,"endTime":1991.55,"body":"head for the rest of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1991.55,"endTime":1999.32,"body":"day? No, don't do it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1991.55,"endTime":1999.32,"body":"Look, travel, travel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1999.35,"endTime":2006.19,"body":"by. But just to clarify"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1999.35,"endTime":2006.19,"body":"is my rubber stamp is not that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2006.19,"endTime":2010.57,"body":"you shouldn't use PHYML on their"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2006.19,"endTime":2010.57,"body":"more modern methods. My rubber"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2010.57,"endTime":2014.77,"body":"stamp is PHYML doesn't mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2010.57,"endTime":2014.77,"body":"missing data or not a problem,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2014.77,"endTime":2017.89,"body":"right? These are routine kind of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2014.77,"endTime":2017.89,"body":"things that you see in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2017.89,"endTime":2021.76,"body":"literature, I will read papers"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2017.89,"endTime":2021.76,"body":"that don't even say what percent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2021.76,"endTime":2026.62,"body":"of data are missing? Or what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2021.76,"endTime":2026.62,"body":"patterns of missingness exist"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2026.62,"endTime":2031.69,"body":"given known covariates. What I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2026.62,"endTime":2031.69,"body":"want to see is a paragraph that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2031.69,"endTime":2036.46,"body":"describes all of those things of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2031.69,"endTime":2036.46,"body":"the total sample, what percent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2036.46,"endTime":2039.37,"body":"were complete? What percent were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2036.46,"endTime":2039.37,"body":"missing at different time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2039.37,"endTime":2043.48,"body":"points, how do those relate to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2039.37,"endTime":2043.48,"body":"observe covariates and then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2043.48,"endTime":2048.46,"body":"transition from there into given"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2043.48,"endTime":2048.46,"body":"the characteristics of our data,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2048.52,"endTime":2050.86,"body":"we believe full information,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2048.52,"endTime":2050.86,"body":"maximum likelihood is an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2050.86,"endTime":2054.64,"body":"appropriate method, you know,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2050.86,"endTime":2054.64,"body":"whatever. That's more My thing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2054.64,"endTime":2057.82,"body":"is that there's a whole"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2054.64,"endTime":2057.82,"body":"generation of students that seem"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2057.82,"endTime":2061.15,"body":"to think we don't have to worry"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2057.82,"endTime":2061.15,"body":"about missing data anymore."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2061.51,"endTime":2064.93,"body":"Because so and so package can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2061.51,"endTime":2064.93,"body":"handle it."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2064.96,"endTime":2068.23,"body":"Yeah, absolutely. It's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2064.96,"endTime":2068.23,"body":"demoralizing how little the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2068.26,"endTime":2073.09,"body":"needle moves over time, right?"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2068.26,"endTime":2073.09,"body":"How still terrible the reporting"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2073.09,"endTime":2074.14,"body":"practices are."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2074.32,"endTime":2077.8,"body":"How would you improve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2074.32,"endTime":2077.8,"body":"it? If you said as one of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2077.8,"endTime":2082.48,"body":"leading experts in this field in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2077.8,"endTime":2082.48,"body":"the world, here are X number of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2082.48,"endTime":2086.53,"body":"things? I think an applied"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2082.48,"endTime":2086.53,"body":"researcher should report as part"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2086.53,"endTime":2089.56,"body":"of their manuscript. What would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2086.53,"endTime":2089.56,"body":"those be? We'll go read chapter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2089.56,"endTime":2090.16,"body":"11."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2089.56,"endTime":2092.757,"body":"No, I mean, all the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2089.56,"endTime":2092.757,"body":"things that you said I agree I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2092.821,"endTime":2096.659,"body":"have in that chapter, sort of a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2092.821,"endTime":2096.659,"body":"laundry list. You know, many"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2096.723,"endTime":2100.304,"body":"people have complained about the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2096.723,"endTime":2100.304,"body":"state of report reading"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2100.368,"endTime":2104.078,"body":"practices and many people have"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2100.368,"endTime":2104.078,"body":"catalogued things that they"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2104.142,"endTime":2108.235,"body":"would like to see reported. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2104.142,"endTime":2108.235,"body":"I just really stole all of those"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2108.299,"endTime":2112.072,"body":"and put them in one little"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2108.299,"endTime":2112.072,"body":"package in chapter 11. And we've"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2112.136,"endTime":2115.718,"body":"got online supplements now,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2112.136,"endTime":2115.718,"body":"right? We don't have to cram"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2115.782,"endTime":2119.491,"body":"this into two sentences in the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2115.782,"endTime":2119.491,"body":"methods, we've got infinite"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2119.555,"endTime":2123.457,"body":"online space, certainly, as you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2119.555,"endTime":2123.457,"body":"said, talking about, say, how"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2123.521,"endTime":2127.55,"body":"much missing data that they have"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2123.521,"endTime":2127.55,"body":"them exploring our assumptions"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2127.614,"endTime":2131.643,"body":"about why the data are missing,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2127.614,"endTime":2131.643,"body":"right? It's easier than ever to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2131.707,"endTime":2135.608,"body":"apply missing, not at random"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2131.707,"endTime":2135.608,"body":"models to data, those aren't out"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2135.672,"endTime":2138.998,"body":"of our reach anymore. They're"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2135.672,"endTime":2138.998,"body":"simple to use, and not"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2139.062,"endTime":2142.963,"body":"appropriate for every situation."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2139.062,"endTime":2142.963,"body":"But certainly some are doing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2143.027,"endTime":2146.289,"body":"sensitivity analyses that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2143.027,"endTime":2146.289,"body":"examine the impact of our"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2146.353,"endTime":2150.191,"body":"assumptions about missing data."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2146.353,"endTime":2150.191,"body":"You guys both expressed your"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2150.254,"endTime":2153.772,"body":"love for demo in an earlier"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2150.254,"endTime":2153.772,"body":"episode, I think one of the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2153.836,"endTime":2157.865,"body":"things that makes imputation or"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2153.836,"endTime":2157.865,"body":"Bayes really appealing to me is"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2157.929,"endTime":2161.895,"body":"that we can see the assumptions"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2157.929,"endTime":2161.895,"body":"that we're applying when we do"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2161.959,"endTime":2165.668,"body":"FIML. Right, we can plot the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2161.959,"endTime":2165.668,"body":"imputed data and get a visual"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2165.732,"endTime":2169.442,"body":"bead on what we're assuming"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2165.732,"endTime":2169.442,"body":"about the distributions of the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2169.505,"endTime":2173.215,"body":"variables. And it's kind of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2169.505,"endTime":2173.215,"body":"shocking sometimes to see what"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2173.279,"endTime":2177.244,"body":"the missing data models imposing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2173.279,"endTime":2177.244,"body":"on your results. So certainly"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2177.308,"endTime":2180.826,"body":"doing sensitivity analyses"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2177.308,"endTime":2180.826,"body":"around distributions that we"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2180.89,"endTime":2184.599,"body":"apply to missing data, I could"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2180.89,"endTime":2184.599,"body":"go on and on and on and on."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2184.663,"endTime":2188.309,"body":"Right, and probably that's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2184.663,"endTime":2188.309,"body":"overkill. But certainly I page"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2188.373,"endTime":2192.338,"body":"with a little more detail. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2188.373,"endTime":2192.338,"body":"an online supplement is not too"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2192.402,"endTime":2193.17,"body":"much to ask."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.21,"endTime":2197.08,"body":"I have chapter 11 in front"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.21,"endTime":2197.08,"body":"of me. And it's wonderful. It's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2197.08,"endTime":2200.62,"body":"a wrap up to the whole book. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2197.08,"endTime":2200.62,"body":"it helps people to know about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2200.62,"endTime":2203.11,"body":"reporting, just like we're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2200.62,"endTime":2203.11,"body":"talking about. Let me just read"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2203.11,"endTime":2205.72,"body":"the headers for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2203.11,"endTime":2205.72,"body":"recommendations. And Craig has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.72,"endTime":2207.85,"body":"been drilling down a little bit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.72,"endTime":2207.85,"body":"into those but I highly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2207.85,"endTime":2211.12,"body":"recommend that folks take a look"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2207.85,"endTime":2211.12,"body":"at this recommendation one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2211.12,"endTime":2213.97,"body":"talking about your missing data"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2211.12,"endTime":2213.97,"body":"rates, recommendation two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2213.97,"endTime":2217.03,"body":"talking about distributional"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2213.97,"endTime":2217.03,"body":"assumptions, recommendation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2217.03,"endTime":2221.98,"body":"three, the missing data process"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2217.03,"endTime":2221.98,"body":"recommendation for any auxiliary"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2221.98,"endTime":2225.61,"body":"variables that you might have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2221.98,"endTime":2225.61,"body":"recommendation five, missing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2225.61,"endTime":2229.12,"body":"data handling methods,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2225.61,"endTime":2229.12,"body":"recommendation six, the software"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2229.12,"endTime":2232.99,"body":"tools and implementation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2229.12,"endTime":2232.99,"body":"details, recommendation seven"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2232.99,"endTime":2237.01,"body":"sensitivity analysis, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2232.99,"endTime":2237.01,"body":"recommendation eight, Bayesian"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2237.01,"endTime":2241.03,"body":"estimation and multiple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2237.01,"endTime":2241.03,"body":"imputation. So throughout, Craig"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2241.03,"endTime":2244.03,"body":"has a very nice flowchart of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2241.03,"endTime":2244.03,"body":"ways that you can think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2244.03,"endTime":2247.51,"body":"things that you've done and ways"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2244.03,"endTime":2247.51,"body":"to make good decisions and to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2247.51,"endTime":2251.5,"body":"report about those decisions. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2247.51,"endTime":2251.5,"body":"chapter 11 is a beautiful wrap"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2251.5,"endTime":2253.84,"body":"up to a fantastic book,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2253.9,"endTime":2257.494,"body":"you intrigued me a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2253.9,"endTime":2257.494,"body":"moment ago, you had an almost"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2257.568,"endTime":2262.211,"body":"throwaway line about Well, now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2257.568,"endTime":2262.211,"body":"we can handle MNAR and I perked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2262.286,"endTime":2266.553,"body":"up a little bit there because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2262.286,"endTime":2266.553,"body":"when I teach this, I talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2266.628,"endTime":2271.346,"body":"about MCAR and MAR. And I always"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2266.628,"endTime":2271.346,"body":"have a bit of a shrug and say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2271.42,"endTime":2275.688,"body":"if you're MNAR I think the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2271.42,"endTime":2275.688,"body":"technical term I use is you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2275.763,"endTime":2280.256,"body":"kind of screwed. Maybe I need to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2275.763,"endTime":2280.256,"body":"update my own teaching. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2280.331,"endTime":2284.898,"body":"granted, I'm still using curl"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2280.331,"endTime":2284.898,"body":"than yellow transparency slides"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2284.973,"endTime":2289.391,"body":"so that I had from like 1988,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2284.973,"endTime":2289.391,"body":"some dos, here's my ditto and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2289.465,"endTime":2294.108,"body":"quit sniffing them. Everybody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2289.465,"endTime":2294.108,"body":"put them down, you don't need to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2294.183,"endTime":2299.05,"body":"sniff the Mimir graphs. Tell us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2294.183,"endTime":2299.05,"body":"a little bit more about the MN AR"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2299.08,"endTime":2302.77,"body":"Yeah, sure. So just as a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2299.08,"endTime":2302.77,"body":"reminder, you guys did a really"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2302.77,"endTime":2306.25,"body":"amazing job of describing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2302.77,"endTime":2306.25,"body":"missing data mechanisms and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2306.28,"endTime":2311.2,"body":"missing data processes in one of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2306.28,"endTime":2311.2,"body":"your earlier podcasts. And just"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2311.2,"endTime":2315.22,"body":"to sort of reiterate what those"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2311.2,"endTime":2315.22,"body":"are because the terminology is"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2315.25,"endTime":2318.34,"body":"awful, right? So missing"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2315.25,"endTime":2318.34,"body":"completely at random is a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2318.34,"endTime":2322.48,"body":"situation where think about the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2318.34,"endTime":2322.48,"body":"causes of missing data, those"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2322.48,"endTime":2327.79,"body":"are really unrelated to the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2322.48,"endTime":2327.79,"body":"variables in our model. And our"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2327.79,"endTime":2332.95,"body":"default assumption most of the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2327.79,"endTime":2332.95,"body":"time is missing at random. Or"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2332.95,"endTime":2336.58,"body":"maybe it's better to call it"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2332.95,"endTime":2336.58,"body":"conditionally missing at random."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2336.58,"endTime":2341.56,"body":"So it's the idea that once we"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2336.58,"endTime":2341.56,"body":"condition on the observed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2341.59,"endTime":2346.03,"body":"variables in our model that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2341.59,"endTime":2346.03,"body":"missing this is purely haphazard"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2346.06,"endTime":2350.23,"body":"after that. So another way of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2346.06,"endTime":2350.23,"body":"saying it is that the unseen"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2350.23,"endTime":2354.07,"body":"score values that we don't have"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2350.23,"endTime":2354.07,"body":"access to those don't play a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2354.07,"endTime":2357.88,"body":"role at all. There's no tell us"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2354.07,"endTime":2357.88,"body":"anything about why people might"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2357.88,"endTime":2361.9,"body":"be missing above and beyond what"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2357.88,"endTime":2361.9,"body":"we already know from the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2361.93,"endTime":2365.02,"body":"observed data. And so that's the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2361.93,"endTime":2365.02,"body":"stock assumption that we make"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2365.02,"endTime":2369.58,"body":"with demo or days or multiple"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2365.02,"endTime":2369.58,"body":"imputation. And then the third"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2369.58,"endTime":2374.02,"body":"one missing, not at random. This"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2369.58,"endTime":2374.02,"body":"is where the unseen score values"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2374.02,"endTime":2378.55,"body":"themselves carry information"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2374.02,"endTime":2378.55,"body":"about whether a person is going"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2378.55,"endTime":2383.5,"body":"to have missing data or not. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2378.55,"endTime":2383.5,"body":"it's my level of substance use"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2383.53,"endTime":2388.3,"body":"that influences my decision to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2383.53,"endTime":2388.3,"body":"not report that to you."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2388.42,"endTime":2391.27,"body":"So how do we deal with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2388.42,"endTime":2391.27,"body":"that last one in practice the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2391.27,"endTime":2393.58,"body":"missing not at random, right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2391.27,"endTime":2393.58,"body":"What are some ways that we might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2393.58,"endTime":2394.21,"body":"approach that?"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2394.24,"endTime":2397.3,"body":"Yeah, the two major"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2394.24,"endTime":2397.3,"body":"frameworks that we could work"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2397.3,"endTime":2401.68,"body":"from our selection modeling and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2397.3,"endTime":2401.68,"body":"Pattern mixture models,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2401.83,"endTime":2405.1,"body":"selection models, essentially,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2401.83,"endTime":2405.1,"body":"you've got your vocal model,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2405.1,"endTime":2409.84,"body":"whatever that happens to be. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2405.1,"endTime":2409.84,"body":"let's say you've got, Patrick,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2409.84,"endTime":2412.75,"body":"in your context, this is"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2409.84,"endTime":2412.75,"body":"probably a huge thing, when"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2412.75,"endTime":2416.59,"body":"you're talking about substance"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2412.75,"endTime":2416.59,"body":"use and stuff like that, it's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2416.59,"endTime":2419.53,"body":"reasonable to assume, you know,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2416.59,"endTime":2419.53,"body":"they will might not report their"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2419.53,"endTime":2423.88,"body":"usage patterns because of their"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2419.53,"endTime":2423.88,"body":"usage patterns. And so, you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2423.88,"endTime":2427.18,"body":"know, we've got this dependent"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2423.88,"endTime":2427.18,"body":"variable that maybe isn't"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2427.18,"endTime":2431.41,"body":"conditionally missing at random."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2427.18,"endTime":2431.41,"body":"And so we would pair that focal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2431.41,"endTime":2434.23,"body":"model up with a second"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2431.41,"endTime":2434.23,"body":"regression model where the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2434.23,"endTime":2438.55,"body":"missing data indicator is the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2434.23,"endTime":2438.55,"body":"dependent variable. And we're"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2438.58,"endTime":2442.84,"body":"predicting that missing data"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2438.58,"endTime":2442.84,"body":"indicator from the very least"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2442.87,"endTime":2446.08,"body":"the dependent variable itself."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2442.87,"endTime":2446.08,"body":"So why is predicting it's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2446.08,"endTime":2449.86,"body":"missing us, but then there could"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2446.08,"endTime":2449.86,"body":"be auxiliary variables in that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2449.86,"endTime":2453.07,"body":"missingness model, some of the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2449.86,"endTime":2453.07,"body":"covariates from the focal model"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2453.07,"endTime":2457.27,"body":"could be in that missingness"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2453.07,"endTime":2457.27,"body":"model. And so simultaneously"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2457.3,"endTime":2461.32,"body":"estimating our focal model, and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2457.3,"endTime":2461.32,"body":"that missing this model, if we"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2461.32,"endTime":2464.59,"body":"get the missing this model,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2461.32,"endTime":2464.59,"body":"approximately correct, we'll"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2464.59,"endTime":2468.85,"body":"adjust our focal model estimates"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2464.59,"endTime":2468.85,"body":"in a way that removes non"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2468.85,"endTime":2472.93,"body":"response bias can think about"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2468.85,"endTime":2472.93,"body":"those models as like a mediation"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2472.93,"endTime":2476.98,"body":"process, almost like x"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2472.93,"endTime":2476.98,"body":"influences y and then y"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2476.98,"endTime":2480.64,"body":"influences missingness. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2476.98,"endTime":2480.64,"body":"maybe some of the x's also"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2480.67,"endTime":2484.72,"body":"influence missing us directly."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2480.67,"endTime":2484.72,"body":"And then pattern mixture models"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2484.72,"endTime":2488.62,"body":"flip the script and are more"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2484.72,"endTime":2488.62,"body":"like a moderation process where"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2488.62,"endTime":2492.61,"body":"that missing data indicator"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2488.62,"endTime":2492.61,"body":"becomes a predictor variable."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2492.64,"endTime":2496.3,"body":"And essentially, we're saying"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2492.64,"endTime":2496.3,"body":"that subgroups of people people"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2496.3,"endTime":2500.56,"body":"with and without data on our"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2496.3,"endTime":2500.56,"body":"dependent variable potentially"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2500.56,"endTime":2502.6,"body":"have different parameter"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2500.56,"endTime":2502.6,"body":"estimates, they could have a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2502.6,"endTime":2506.08,"body":"different intercept or a mean"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2502.6,"endTime":2506.08,"body":"level on the dependent variable."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2506.14,"endTime":2510.01,"body":"Maybe the effect of an"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2506.14,"endTime":2510.01,"body":"intervention works differently,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2510.04,"endTime":2513.16,"body":"depending on whether you have"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2510.04,"endTime":2513.16,"body":"data or not on the dependent"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2513.16,"endTime":2516.52,"body":"variable. So those are the two"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2513.16,"endTime":2516.52,"body":"major camps. And there's lots of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2516.58,"endTime":2520.9,"body":"other flavors of those models,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2516.58,"endTime":2520.9,"body":"sort of variations on that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2520.9,"endTime":2524.86,"body":"theme. But I think those models"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2520.9,"endTime":2524.86,"body":"are fairly straightforward, you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2524.86,"endTime":2527.17,"body":"have to be very careful with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2524.86,"endTime":2527.17,"body":"them. I agree with your"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2527.2,"endTime":2530.95,"body":"sentiment that you have this,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2527.2,"endTime":2530.95,"body":"you're not entirely screwed, but"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2531.07,"endTime":2537.07,"body":"you got to be really careful"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2531.07,"endTime":2537.07,"body":"unscrewing yourself. Yeah, so I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2537.07,"endTime":2541.0,"body":"think, you know, we know a lot"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2537.07,"endTime":2541.0,"body":"about these models and know how"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2541.0,"endTime":2545.89,"body":"they behave on real datasets,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2541.0,"endTime":2545.89,"body":"they don't feel quite as"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2545.92,"endTime":2549.4,"body":"mystical maybe as they did 10"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2545.92,"endTime":2549.4,"body":"years ago."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2549.52,"endTime":2551.92,"body":"So I love all the missing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2549.52,"endTime":2551.92,"body":"not at random stuff that you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2551.92,"endTime":2555.58,"body":"talking about. And what it makes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2551.92,"endTime":2555.58,"body":"me think of is, what are some of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2555.58,"endTime":2559.09,"body":"the really cool areas where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2555.58,"endTime":2559.09,"body":"people could be doing research,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2559.09,"endTime":2561.22,"body":"we have a lot of people out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2559.09,"endTime":2561.22,"body":"there who are listening who"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2561.25,"endTime":2563.53,"body":"might be toward the end of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2561.25,"endTime":2563.53,"body":"graduate program, they're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2563.53,"endTime":2567.1,"body":"thinking about areas for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2563.53,"endTime":2567.1,"body":"dissertation topics. And this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2567.1,"endTime":2568.12,"body":"feels like,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2568.45,"endTime":2570.7,"body":"this is what I call a"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2568.45,"endTime":2570.7,"body":"target rich environment."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2572.53,"endTime":2575.17,"body":"So can you tell us what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2572.53,"endTime":2575.17,"body":"some of the areas are that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2575.17,"endTime":2577.45,"body":"think are good areas for people"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2575.17,"endTime":2577.45,"body":"to be working in?"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2577.48,"endTime":2580.72,"body":"Yeah, well, I think"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2577.48,"endTime":2580.72,"body":"there's a lot of meat left on"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2580.72,"endTime":2585.4,"body":"the bone with these factored"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2580.72,"endTime":2585.4,"body":"regression specifications. We"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2585.4,"endTime":2588.31,"body":"were building the software"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2585.4,"endTime":2588.31,"body":"package, they sort of have this"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2588.31,"endTime":2591.46,"body":"realization, oh, we could do"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2588.31,"endTime":2591.46,"body":"this, we can do this, we can add"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2591.49,"endTime":2594.76,"body":"this variable in here, this"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2591.49,"endTime":2594.76,"body":"count variable, or this skewed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2594.76,"endTime":2598.87,"body":"variable, there's infinite"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2594.76,"endTime":2598.87,"body":"combinations of models that you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2598.87,"endTime":2603.61,"body":"can pack into these factored"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2598.87,"endTime":2603.61,"body":"regression specifications. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2603.64,"endTime":2607.66,"body":"the theory sort of says they"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2603.64,"endTime":2607.66,"body":"should all work and the software"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2607.66,"endTime":2611.14,"body":"runs the models just fine. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2607.66,"endTime":2611.14,"body":"you get results that seem to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2611.14,"endTime":2616.03,"body":"make sense yet. Also, it's ripe"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2611.14,"endTime":2616.03,"body":"for computer simulations, that"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2616.03,"endTime":2619.24,"body":"is to try to understand when"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2616.03,"endTime":2619.24,"body":"these models work, and when they"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2619.24,"endTime":2624.16,"body":"break down when they reach their"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2619.24,"endTime":2624.16,"body":"optimal performance. So many of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2624.16,"endTime":2628.78,"body":"the studies I think, focus on"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2624.16,"endTime":2628.78,"body":"models with continuous outcome"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2628.81,"endTime":2633.76,"body":"Zahn simple interaction models"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2628.81,"endTime":2633.76,"body":"with two covariates,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2633.76,"endTime":2637.54,"body":"interacting, who's got all sorts"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2633.76,"endTime":2637.54,"body":"of discrete variables we can"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2637.54,"endTime":2640.15,"body":"throw into the mix now and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2637.54,"endTime":2640.15,"body":"different types of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2640.18,"endTime":2644.47,"body":"nonlinearities. And really, the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2640.18,"endTime":2644.47,"body":"sky is the limit. I think"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2644.47,"endTime":2647.62,"body":"there's a whole lot of stuff to"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2644.47,"endTime":2647.62,"body":"be done there. You know, and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2647.62,"endTime":2652.09,"body":"certainly also in the multi"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2647.62,"endTime":2652.09,"body":"level context is well, right. So"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2652.09,"endTime":2654.85,"body":"these factored regression"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2652.09,"endTime":2654.85,"body":"specifications we've been"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2654.85,"endTime":2658.42,"body":"talking about, we can use them"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2654.85,"endTime":2658.42,"body":"for two and three level models"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2658.42,"endTime":2661.69,"body":"with all sorts of interesting"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2658.42,"endTime":2661.69,"body":"stuff going on with the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2661.69,"endTime":2664.96,"body":"covariates can be different"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2661.69,"endTime":2664.96,"body":"metrics and exert different"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2664.96,"endTime":2669.19,"body":"types of effects on the"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2664.96,"endTime":2669.19,"body":"dependent variable. And there's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2669.19,"endTime":2673.24,"body":"been a lot of research on multi"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2669.19,"endTime":2673.24,"body":"level models with factor in"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2673.24,"endTime":2676.42,"body":"specifications. But again, it's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2673.24,"endTime":2676.42,"body":"pretty simple models with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2676.42,"endTime":2680.83,"body":"continuous outcomes. It's really"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2676.42,"endTime":2680.83,"body":"just scratching the surface what"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2680.83,"endTime":2684.16,"body":"these models are capable of. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2680.83,"endTime":2684.16,"body":"so I think for people looking"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2684.16,"endTime":2687.76,"body":"for dissertation topics, there's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2684.16,"endTime":2687.76,"body":"plenty of room to dig a little"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2687.76,"endTime":2691.36,"body":"bit deeper and try to understand"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2687.76,"endTime":2691.36,"body":"these models so we can apply"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2691.36,"endTime":2693.22,"body":"them more carefully. Something"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2693.22,"endTime":2696.38,"body":"you said earlier that I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2693.22,"endTime":2696.38,"body":"really resonated to was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2696.447,"endTime":2700.415,"body":"sensitivity analysis. Yeah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2696.447,"endTime":2700.415,"body":"Because your exactly right as a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2700.482,"endTime":2704.585,"body":"lot of work needs to be done in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2700.482,"endTime":2704.585,"body":"terms of when do they perform"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2704.652,"endTime":2708.216,"body":"well, when do they not perform"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2704.652,"endTime":2708.216,"body":"well, but I think some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2708.283,"endTime":2712.117,"body":"thoughtful work could also be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2708.283,"endTime":2712.117,"body":"done on how to use them and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2712.184,"endTime":2715.883,"body":"drawing up some general"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2712.184,"endTime":2715.883,"body":"heuristics that involve some of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2715.95,"endTime":2719.985,"body":"these methods of sensitivity"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2715.95,"endTime":2719.985,"body":"analysis, because I think a lot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2720.052,"endTime":2723.885,"body":"of us who do substantive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2720.052,"endTime":2723.885,"body":"research are deeply dedicated to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2723.952,"endTime":2727.92,"body":"doing the analyses correctly."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2723.952,"endTime":2727.92,"body":"But at the end of the day, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.987,"endTime":2732.359,"body":"want to know, Is something going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.987,"endTime":2732.359,"body":"to change my discussion section?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2732.426,"endTime":2736.73,"body":"Yep. And so if you do a straight"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2732.426,"endTime":2736.73,"body":"up PHYML, and get your results,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2736.797,"endTime":2740.832,"body":"can we incorporate some of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2736.797,"endTime":2740.832,"body":"new methods to increase our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2740.899,"endTime":2745.203,"body":"confidence in that in terms of a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2740.899,"endTime":2745.203,"body":"sensitivity analysis, but if it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2745.27,"endTime":2749.036,"body":"does lead to a difference, in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2745.27,"endTime":2749.036,"body":"conclusion, then that's an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.104,"endTime":2753.475,"body":"intellectual goose for us to try"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2749.104,"endTime":2753.475,"body":"to better understand why the two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2753.542,"endTime":2757.51,"body":"methods differ. So I'm very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2753.542,"endTime":2757.51,"body":"excited about new projects that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2757.577,"endTime":2761.814,"body":"lay out some general heuristics"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2757.577,"endTime":2761.814,"body":"of how you would go about using"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2761.881,"endTime":2763.63,"body":"these methods in practice."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2763.66,"endTime":2768.7,"body":"Yeah, agree 100%. And I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2763.66,"endTime":2768.7,"body":"think another avenue for future"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2768.7,"endTime":2773.14,"body":"research, certainly, for folks"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2768.7,"endTime":2773.14,"body":"who are in the SEM space is a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2773.14,"endTime":2776.92,"body":"how to assess fit in these"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2773.14,"endTime":2776.92,"body":"models, I think is a real sort"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2776.92,"endTime":2780.13,"body":"of tricky thing, right? When"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2776.92,"endTime":2780.13,"body":"you've got categorical"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2780.13,"endTime":2783.73,"body":"covariates interacting with a"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2780.13,"endTime":2783.73,"body":"latent variable. And so all of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2783.73,"endTime":2787.93,"body":"our usual fit tools really kind"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2783.73,"endTime":2787.93,"body":"of go by the wayside, there is"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2787.93,"endTime":2792.31,"body":"not a reproduced covariance"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2787.93,"endTime":2792.31,"body":"matrix that we could pit against"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2792.31,"endTime":2796.03,"body":"the sample data in the same way"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2792.31,"endTime":2796.03,"body":"that we do with conventional sem"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2796.03,"endTime":2798.49,"body":"techniques. And there's been"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2796.03,"endTime":2798.49,"body":"some work on this, like Ed"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2798.49,"endTime":2802.21,"body":"Merkel has worked on this. And"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2798.49,"endTime":2802.21,"body":"Bolin has done some things other"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2802.21,"endTime":2804.76,"body":"folks have done stuff. But it's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2802.21,"endTime":2804.76,"body":"really interesting to sitting"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2804.76,"endTime":2808.15,"body":"down and fitting sem models with"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2804.76,"endTime":2808.15,"body":"these factored specifications."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2808.15,"endTime":2811.87,"body":"Because stuff we sort of take"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2808.15,"endTime":2811.87,"body":"for granted when we're modeling"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2811.87,"endTime":2815.65,"body":"and multivariate normal"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2811.87,"endTime":2815.65,"body":"framework, even how you identify"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2815.68,"endTime":2818.89,"body":"the types of constraints you put"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2815.68,"endTime":2818.89,"body":"on a model to identify it can"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2818.89,"endTime":2823.57,"body":"have a surprisingly big impact"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2818.89,"endTime":2823.57,"body":"on the convergence of the model"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2823.57,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"and things like that. So there's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2823.57,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"a lot of interesting little"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2826.15,"endTime":2830.8,"body":"stuff to figure out about these"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2826.15,"endTime":2830.8,"body":"models and practical things for"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2830.8,"endTime":2833.05,"body":"where the rubber hits the road,"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2830.8,"endTime":2833.05,"body":"applying these things to real"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2833.05,"endTime":2833.53,"body":"data."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2833.92,"endTime":2836.23,"body":"I really love listening to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2833.92,"endTime":2836.23,"body":"you describe what some of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2836.23,"endTime":2840.25,"body":"new areas are that you've been"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2836.23,"endTime":2840.25,"body":"working on that you've put into"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2840.25,"endTime":2844.48,"body":"your book, and then areas that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2840.25,"endTime":2844.48,"body":"are right for people to do work"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2844.48,"endTime":2848.83,"body":"in. As always, your explanations"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2844.48,"endTime":2848.83,"body":"are just spectacular. So one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2848.83,"endTime":2852.52,"body":"thing that I've known about you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2848.83,"endTime":2852.52,"body":"all the way back to your spiky"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2852.52,"endTime":2856.39,"body":"gelled up hair days, is that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2852.52,"endTime":2856.39,"body":"are a wonderful explainer a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2856.39,"endTime":2859.54,"body":"wonderful teacher. For anybody"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2856.39,"endTime":2859.54,"body":"out there who hasn't had the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2859.54,"endTime":2862.3,"body":"pleasure of taking a workshop"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2859.54,"endTime":2862.3,"body":"with Craig and I actually have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2862.3,"endTime":2866.05,"body":"taken a workshop with Craig, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2862.3,"endTime":2866.05,"body":"highly recommend that you do it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2866.05,"endTime":2868.33,"body":"He's just a very, very gifted"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2866.05,"endTime":2868.33,"body":"teacher."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2868.36,"endTime":2871.83,"body":"I completely agree."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2868.36,"endTime":2871.83,"body":"Craig was foolish enough to work"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2871.897,"endTime":2875.901,"body":"with Dan Bauer and me and has a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2871.897,"endTime":2875.901,"body":"workshop with center stat. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2875.968,"endTime":2880.04,"body":"have to admit, Craig, when you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2875.968,"endTime":2880.04,"body":"first taught I was working and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2880.106,"endTime":2884.244,"body":"listening to your class, because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2880.106,"endTime":2884.244,"body":"I was learning these things a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2884.311,"endTime":2888.049,"body":"new myself. I second, Greg's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2884.311,"endTime":2888.049,"body":"characterization is I think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2888.115,"endTime":2891.92,"body":"you're one of the clearest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2888.115,"endTime":2891.92,"body":"teachers I've ever had. And so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2891.987,"endTime":2896.191,"body":"anyone who has access to that, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2891.987,"endTime":2896.191,"body":"would highly, highly recommend"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2896.258,"endTime":2897.46,"body":"that. Well, thanks"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2897.79,"endTime":2900.52,"body":"for that both of you"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2897.79,"endTime":2900.52,"body":"guys. I mean, in truth, both of"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2900.52,"endTime":2904.6,"body":"you have really informed how I"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2900.52,"endTime":2904.6,"body":"teach. I was sitting in the back"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2904.6,"endTime":2908.77,"body":"of that conference with Greg's"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2904.6,"endTime":2908.77,"body":"grandma taking notes. You guys"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2908.77,"endTime":2912.7,"body":"are both master presenters and"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2908.77,"endTime":2912.7,"body":"master teachers and I've soaked"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2912.7,"endTime":2917.11,"body":"in your expertise over the years"},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2912.7,"endTime":2917.11,"body":"and borrowed and stolen things."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2917.11,"endTime":2919.873,"body":"I feel a hug coming on,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2917.11,"endTime":2919.873,"body":"which means I think we need to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2919.924,"endTime":2920.59,"body":"wrap this up."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2920.59,"endTime":2920.92,"body":"Yep."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2920.92,"endTime":2921.91,"body":"Thank you, Craig."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2921.97,"endTime":2925.21,"body":"Yeah, so definitely Craig,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2921.97,"endTime":2925.21,"body":"you can be our wing man anytime."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2926.41,"endTime":2934.51,"body":"Bullsh*t. You can be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2926.41,"endTime":2934.51,"body":"mine. Thank you, everyone."},{"speaker":"Craig","startTime":2934.72,"endTime":2935.44,"body":"Thank you guys."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2935.47,"endTime":2941.8,"body":"Take care everybody."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2935.47,"endTime":2941.8,"body":"Thanks so much for joining us."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2941.83,"endTime":2944.05,"body":"Don't forget to tell your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2941.83,"endTime":2944.05,"body":"friends to subscribe to us on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2944.05,"endTime":2947.41,"body":"Apple podcasts, Spotify, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2944.05,"endTime":2947.41,"body":"wherever they go to fill the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.41,"endTime":2950.98,"body":"holes for what's missing in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.41,"endTime":2950.98,"body":"their lives, not at random. You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2950.98,"endTime":2953.5,"body":"can also follow us on Twitter"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2950.98,"endTime":2953.5,"body":"where we are at quantity food"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2953.5,"endTime":2956.77,"body":"pod and visit our website"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2953.5,"endTime":2956.77,"body":"quantity and pod.org where you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2956.77,"endTime":2959.29,"body":"can leave us a message find"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2956.77,"endTime":2959.29,"body":"organized playlists and show"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2959.29,"endTime":2961.93,"body":"notes. Listen to past episodes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2959.29,"endTime":2961.93,"body":"and other fun stuff. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2961.93,"endTime":2964.6,"body":"finally, you can get cool"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2961.93,"endTime":2964.6,"body":"quantities merch like shirts,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2964.6,"endTime":2967.78,"body":"mugs, stickers, and spiral"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2964.6,"endTime":2967.78,"body":"notebooks from redbubble.com"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2967.81,"endTime":2970.42,"body":"where All proceeds go to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2967.81,"endTime":2970.42,"body":"donorschoose.org. To help low"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2970.42,"endTime":2973.3,"body":"income schools, you've been"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2970.42,"endTime":2973.3,"body":"listening to quantity food, your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2973.3,"endTime":2976.72,"body":"home for all manner of non"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2973.3,"endTime":2976.72,"body":"normality. Today's episode has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2976.72,"endTime":2980.02,"body":"been sponsored by quantitatively"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2976.72,"endTime":2980.02,"body":"relevant Top Gun movie quotes."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2980.38,"endTime":2983.17,"body":"Number one, how you feel when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2980.38,"endTime":2983.17,"body":"you try to run a Monte Carlo"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2983.17,"endTime":2985.84,"body":"simulation study of factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2983.17,"endTime":2985.84,"body":"models with sparse discrete"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2985.84,"endTime":2990.07,"body":"items using numerical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2985.84,"endTime":2990.07,"body":"integration on your laptop. Feel"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2990.07,"endTime":2997.15,"body":"the need number two, how you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2990.07,"endTime":2997.15,"body":"fared on that grant submission"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2997.18,"endTime":2998.83,"body":"as a brand new assistant"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2997.18,"endTime":2998.83,"body":"professor"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2999.13,"endTime":3001.53,"body":"crashed and burned On"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2999.13,"endTime":3001.53,"body":"the first one it wasn't pretty."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3002.46,"endTime":3004.89,"body":"Number three how you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3002.46,"endTime":3004.89,"body":"feeling when all those projects"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3004.89,"endTime":3007.83,"body":"you thought it'd be fun to say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3004.89,"endTime":3007.83,"body":"yes to all need you to do stuff"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3007.83,"endTime":3011.64,"body":"for them in the same week. Your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3007.83,"endTime":3011.64,"body":"ego is writing checks your body"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3011.64,"endTime":3016.17,"body":"can't cash. And finally number"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3011.64,"endTime":3016.17,"body":"four, how we hope quantity has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3016.17,"endTime":3020.64,"body":"made you feel about MANOVA and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3016.17,"endTime":3020.64,"body":"post hoc power analysis. You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3020.64,"endTime":3031.62,"body":"have lost love and is this NPR?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3020.64,"endTime":3031.62,"body":"That is most definitely a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3031.62,"endTime":3037.95,"body":"negative Ghostrider God God whoa"}]}